Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

Žiga Malek,Luc Boerboom

doi:10.1659/mrd-journal-d-14-00082.1

Abstract

Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

Highlights

Land use changes can have significant consequences in mountainous environments that are characterized by high occurrence of hydro-meteorological hazards, vulnerable mountain societies, and slower ecosystem recovery rates (Korner et al 2005)
To further investigate the possibility of integrating participatory approaches with spatial simulation, we developed and applied a multistep scenario-generation framework in a regionalscale case study in the Italian Alps, where uncertainty regarding future drivers of land use change is high
This study developed a method of generating scenarios of future land change in mountainous regions, using the example of an Alpine region in Italy

Summary

Introduction

Land use changes can have significant consequences in mountainous environments that are characterized by high occurrence of hydro-meteorological hazards, vulnerable mountain societies, and slower ecosystem recovery rates (Korner et al 2005) They can affect hydro-meteorological risk, defined as the potential loss to a human– environment system exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods and landslides (Cardona 2004; Fuchs et al 2013). Land use changes can increase this risk by affecting the occurrence of hazards or changing the spatial pattern of exposure due to urban expansion (Bronstert et al 2002; Glade 2003; Glade and Crozier 2005) They can have other negative consequences, such as habitat loss, degraded biodiversity levels, and a lower quality of the landscape image (Chemini and Rizzoli 2003; Tasser et al 2005; Giupponi et al 2006). It is necessary to study how future land use changes might affect human–environment interactions (Rounsevell et al 2006)

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Discussion

Conclusion