Potential Future Events Research Articles

Application of Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) to estimate climate variability impacts on nutrient loading from local watersheds

A vast amount of future climate scenario datasets, created by climate models such as general circulation models (GCMs), have been used in conjunction with watershed models to project future climate variability impact on hydrological processes and water quality. However, these low spatial-temporal resolution datasets are often difficult to downscale spatially and disaggregate temporarily, and they may not be accurate for local watersheds (i.e., state level or smaller watersheds). This study applied the US-EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)’s Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) to create future climate variability scenarios based on historical measured data for local watersheds. As a case demonstration, CAT was employed in conjunction with HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN) model to assess the impacts of the potential future extreme rainfall events and air temperature increases upon nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) and orthophosphate (PO4) loads in the Lower Yazoo River Watershed (LYRW), a local watershed in Mississippi, USA. Results showed that the 10 and 20% increases in rainfall rate, respectively, increased NO3-N load by 9.1 and 18% and PO4 load by 12 and 24% over a 10-year simulation period. In contrast, simultaneous increases in air temperature by 1.0 °C and rainfall rate by 10% as well as air temperature by 2.0 °C and rainfall rate by 20% increased NO3-N load by 12% and 20%, and PO4 load by 14 and 26%, respectively. A summer extreme rainfall scenario was created if a 10% increase in rainfall rate increased the total volume of rainwater for that summer by 10% or more. When this event occurred, it could increase the monthly loads of NO3-N and PO4, by 31 and 41%, respectively, for that summer. Therefore, the extreme rainfall events had tremendous impacts on the NO3-N and PO4 loads. It is apparent that CAT is a flexible and useful tool to modify historical rainfall and air temperature data to predict climate variability impacts on water quality for local watersheds.

Health related quality of life of the patients after transient ischaemic attack: is carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or carotid artery stenting (CAS) more influential?

Although randomized trials have proven the benefit of revascularization with the use of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) or stenting (CAS) for appropriate patients, health care purchasers increasingly look beyond clinical outcome toward measures of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in apportioning limited resources. 36 patients after TIA participated in this study. One group (n=18) had undergone CEA, whereas the second group (n=18) had undergone CAS. Both groups were matched according to age and sex. The Short Form 36 (SF-36) was used to assess the differences in patient-perceived HRQoL in two groups of patients who had suffered minor cerebral ischemic events. No significant difference in health profile between the CEA and CAS was detected for the eight SF-36 domains. However, the CEA group rated a significantly improved change in general health after one year compared with the CAS group (p<0.001). A greater proportion of the CEA group comparing to the CAS group thought their treatment had been successful and that their health had been improved (p<0.001). Both groups shared the same level of anxiety over potential future cerebral ischemic events (p=0.3). Patients' perception of HRQoL measured by the SF-36 domains was almost identical between the CEA and CAS apart from a small but significant improvement in self-reported overall health in the CEA group after one year follow up. HRQoL outcome measures may be of value in future clinical trials of cerebral revascularization to compare the effectiveness of carotid revascularization with the particular method of operation.

소비자의 지식수준이 서브 브랜드를 이용한 브랜드 확장에 미치는 영향

A better forecasting accuracy helps the investors and managers to provide relevant and reliable information about present andfuture events in stock market. Important decisions can be given confidently by managers if forecasting provides informationabout the potential future events and their consequences for possible stock market movements. A better forecasting methodreduces the level of uncertainty for the investors and managers. The index movement direction is forecasted by using eighttime series forecasting and naive model and combination of these models which are more than five hundred. The data is takenas Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 index between the period of 2006 and 2012.

Basolateral Amygdala to Orbitofrontal Cortex Projections Enable Cue-Triggered Reward Expectations.

To make an appropriate decision, one must anticipate potential future rewarding events, even when they are not readily observable. These expectations are generated by using observable information (e.g., stimuli or available actions) to retrieve often quite detailed memories of available rewards. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) are two reciprocally connected key nodes in the circuitry supporting such outcome-guided behaviors. But there is much unknown about the contribution of this circuit to decision making, and almost nothing known about the whether any contribution is via direct, monosynaptic projections, or the direction of information transfer. Therefore, here we used designer receptor-mediated inactivation of OFC→BLA or BLA→OFC projections to evaluate their respective contributions to outcome-guided behaviors in rats. Inactivation of BLA terminals in the OFC, but not OFC terminals in the BLA, disrupted the selective motivating influence of cue-triggered reward representations over reward-seeking decisions as assayed by Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer. BLA→OFC projections were also required when a cued reward representation was used to modify Pavlovian conditional goal-approach responses according to the reward's current value. These projections were not necessary when actions were guided by reward expectations generated based on learned action-reward contingencies, or when rewards themselves, rather than stored memories, directed action. These data demonstrate that BLA→OFC projections enable the cue-triggered reward expectations that can motivate the execution of specific action plans and allow adaptive conditional responding.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Deficits anticipating potential future rewarding events are associated with many psychiatric diseases. Presently, we know little about the neural circuits supporting such reward expectation. Here we show that basolateral amygdala to orbitofrontal cortex projections are required for expectations of specific available rewards to influence reward seeking and decision making. The necessity of these projections was limited to situations in which expectations were elicited by reward-predictive cues. These projections therefore facilitate adaptive behavior by enabling the orbitofrontal cortex to use environmental stimuli to generate expectations of potential future rewarding events.

Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption-based planning

Risk assessments are performed to support decision-making, which could have a long-term impact, for example decisions related to the use of different techniques to plug and abandon an old oil well. The uncertainties related to potential future events and their consequences are in this case often large, which may lead to the introduction of uncertain assumptions and thus make it difficult to ensure that the decision made also provides an acceptable risk level for the future. Recently, a scheme for the systematic treatment of uncertain assumptions in (semi-)quantitative risk assessments was proposed. The suggested scheme focused on how a risk analyst can treat and reflect uncertainties related to the assumptions underlying such a risk assessment. In the present paper, we extend this scheme to provide guidance also to risk managers on how to follow up assumptions after the risk assessment has been performed and the decision made. The aim is to provide a systematic scheme for the development of strategies, motivated by so-called assumption-based planning, that risk managers can use to ensure an acceptable long-term risk level. An example is included to illustrate the use of the suggested scheme.

Physics‐Based Broadband Ground‐Motion Simulations for ProbableMw≥7.0 Earthquakes in the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey)

Abstract The city of Istanbul is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in the Mediterranean region. An important source of such increased risk is the high probability of large earthquake occurrence during the coming years, which stands at about 65% likelihood owing to the existing seismic gap and the post‐1999 earthquake stress transfer at the western portion of the North Anatolian fault zone. In this study, we simulated hybrid broadband time histories from selected earthquakes having magnitude M w >7.0 in the Sea of Marmara within 10–20 km of Istanbul, the most probable scenarios for simulated generation of the devastating 1509 event in this region. Physics‐based rupture scenarios, which may be an indication of potential future events, are adopted to estimate the ground‐motion characteristics and its variability in the region. Two simulation techniques are used to compute a realistic time series, considering generic rock site conditions. The first is a full 3D wave propagation method used for generating low‐frequency seismograms, and the second is a stochastic finite‐fault model approach based on dynamic corner‐frequency high‐frequency seismograms. Dynamic rupture is generated and computed using a boundary integral equation method, and the propagation in the medium is realized through a finite‐difference approach. The results from the two simulation techniques are then merged by performing a weighted summation at intermediate frequencies to calculate a broadband synthetic time series. The simulated hybrid broadband ground motions are validated by comparing peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity (PGV), and spectral accelerations (5% damping) at different periods with the ground‐motion prediction equations in the region. Our simulations reveal strong rupture directivity and supershear rupture effects over a large spatial extent, which generate extremely high near‐fault motions exceeding the 250 cm/s PGV along the entire length of the ruptured fault.

Exploring the Use of Experience Sampling to Assess Episodic Thought

SummaryMental time travel is the ability to mentally relive events in one's own past (episodic recall) and pre‐live potential personal future events (episodic foresight). Recent research has used experience sampling to reveal when and how often we think about the past and future in everyday life; however, it remains unclear how much of thought is episodic, involving the sense of self that underpins mental time travel. In this study, we investigate the use of experience sampling to assess the frequency of episodic past and future thought in everyday life. Participants (n = 214) were exposed to 20 short message service prompts over 1 or 2 days. Half of thoughts were sited in the present; of the remainder, future‐oriented thoughts were more frequent than past‐oriented thoughts. Participants reported 20% of thoughts as episodic. This study suggests that experience sampling methodology can provide a means of assessing episodic thought during everyday activities.Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Imagining future events in patients with unilateral temporal lobe epilepsy.

Imagining future events, which contain episodic and non-episodic details, has been found to (1) engage the temporal lobes bilaterally and (2) be impaired in patients with bilateral temporal lobe pathology. Here, we examined whether unilateral temporal lobe dysfunction also impairs the ability to generate future events. Prospective cross-sectional. Twenty patients with a history of unilateral temporal lobe epilepsy [TLE; 10 left (LTLE) and 10 right (RTLE)] and 20 normal control (NC) subjects comparable on age, sex and education completed the Adapted Autobiographical Interview, which required recall of past and generation of future events and distinguished episodic (internal) from non-episodic (external) details. Participants also completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. Patients with unilateral TLE were significantly impaired in provision of internal details for past and future events, but not in the generation of external details. Examination of detail subcategories revealed that patients with LTLE did exhibit a significant deficit relative to patients with RTLE (and NC) with respect to the generation of perceptual details for both past and future events. Moreover, patients with LTLE generated significantly fewer place details for future events (relative to NC only). The overall number of internal details recalled by patients with LTLE was related to semantic fluency. Our study provides the first evidence that unilateral temporal lobe dysfunction is associated with not only impaired recall of past, but also the generation of future episodic details. Clinically, deficits in future thinking may reduce motivation and decision-making, and as such adversely impact behavioural regulation and socialization. Patients with temporal lobe epilepsy generate less details when asked to describe past and potential future events, particularly with regard to details involving specific events, places and perceptions. These same patients are aware of their difficulties in this realm, but judge their past memories as similar in vividness and even more personally significant than the memories generated by control participants. The deficits in generation of future episodic details were particularly pronounced in patients with left temporal lobe epilepsy. Verbal semantic fluency was correlated with the ability to generate future scenarios.

Into the future with little past: exploring mental time travel in a patient with damage to the mammillary bodies/fornix

Objective: Remembering the past and imaging the future are both manifestations of ‘mental time travel’. These processes have been found to be impaired in patients with bilateral hippocampal lesions. Here, we examined the question of whether future thinking is affected by other Papez circuit lesions, namely: damage to the mammillary bodies/fornix.Method: Case (SL) was a 43-year-old woman who developed dense anterograde and retrograde amnesia suddenly, as a result of Wernicke–Korsakoff’s syndrome. A region of interest volumetric Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) analysis was performed. We assessed past and future thinking in SL and 11 control subjects of similar age and education with the adapted Autobiographical Interview (AI). Participants also completed a battery of neuropsychological tests.Results: Volumetric MRI analyses revealed severely reduced fornix and mammillary body volumes, but intact hippocampi. SL showed substantial, albeit temporally graded retrograde memory deficits on the adapted AI. Strikingly, whilst SL could not provide any specific details of events from the past two weeks or past two years and had impaired recall of events from her late 30s, her descriptions of potential future events were normal in number of event details and plausibility.Conclusions: This dissociation of past and future events’ performance after mammillary body and fornix damage is at odds with the findings of the majority of patients with adult onset hippocampal amnesia. It suggests that these non-hippocampal regions of the Papez circuit are only critical for past event retrieval and not for the generation of possible future events.

Risk Calculation as Experience and Action—Assessing and Managing the Risks and Opportunities of Nanomaterials

Discussions about the appropriate way of assessing and managing new or emerging technologies—like nanomaterials—expose the problematic relationship between scientific knowledge production and regulatory decision-making. On one hand, there is a strong demand for scientific expertise to support decisions, especially by analyzing risks and hazards when uncertainties are prevalent and society’s stakes are high. On the other hand, science is criticized for its authoritative claim to objectivity and for keeping the inherent uncertainty, ambiguity, and selectivity of scientific observation latent. Requests for more transparency in science can lead to revealing, to risk managers and the public, the indeterminacy in knowledge production processes. This has consequences for the prevalence of scientific knowledge in decision-making, because it increases uncertainty on both sides of the breach between science and decisions: scientists lose confidence regarding the scientifically tested knowledge which they pass on, and risk managers lose confidence regarding their decisions based on this knowledge. Nonetheless, the concept of “probabilistic risk assessment” remains an important heuristic for dealing with potential future events. This paper addresses questions of the function of scientific risk assessment in organized risk management. The main argument in this paper is that knowledge alone no longer functions as a mechanism for absorbing uncertainty. Accordingly, the interaction between science and decisions must enable a temporarily stable commitment to manage new threats like products and applications coming from the field of nanoscience and nanomaterials.

Real-time optimization and control mechanisms for collaborative demand and capacity sharing

This work presents a new mechanism for real-time resource allocation, order administration, and process monitoring in Collaborative Networked Enterprises (CNE). The motivation is to mitigate the uncertainties and risks caused by arbitrary nature of customer orders, dynamic changes in demand patterns, and unforeseen supply disruptions. Enterprise collaboration is enabled by Demand and Capacity Sharing (DCS) among enterprises considering four decision criteria: (a) Total cost; (b) Demand fulfillment; (c) Resource utilization; and (d) CNE stability. A Task Administration Protocol (TAP) is designed for priority-based allocation/re-allocation of resources and real-time monitoring of DCS processes. The TAP is enhanced with a Predictive Best Matching Protocol (PBMP), which optimizes allocation decisions in real-time while taking into account potential future events. The new Real-Time Optimization (RTO) mechanism is proven in experiments to be an advantageous solution for mitigating undesirable impacts of uncertainty and dynamicity on the CNE performance with respect to the four undertaken decision criteria.

Functional Connectivity under Anticipation of Shock: Correlates of Trait Anxious Affect versus Induced Anxiety.

Sustained anxiety about potential future negative events is an important feature of anxiety disorders. In this study, we used a novel anticipation of shock paradigm to investigate individual differences in functional connectivity during prolonged threat of shock. We examined the correlates of between-participant differences in trait anxious affect and induced anxiety, where the latter reflects changes in self-reported anxiety resulting from the shock manipulation. Dissociable effects of trait anxious affect and induced anxiety were observed. Participants with high scores on a latent dimension of anxious affect showed less increase in ventromedial pFC-amygdala connectivity between periods of safety and shock anticipation. Meanwhile, lower levels of induced anxiety were linked to greater augmentation of dorsolateral pFC-anterior insula connectivity during shock anticipation. These findings suggest that ventromedial pFC-amygdala and dorsolateral pFC-insula networks might both contribute to regulation of sustained fear responses, with their recruitment varying independently across participants. The former might reflect an evolutionarily old mechanism for reducing fear or anxiety, whereas the latter might reflect a complementary mechanism by which cognitive control can be implemented to diminish fear responses generated due to anticipation of aversive stimuli or events. These two circuits might provide complementary, alternate targets for exploration in future pharmacological and cognitive intervention studies.

Att iscensätta apokalypsen

Enacting the apocalypse: zombie metaphors in contemporary disaster preparednessSince the turn of the millennium, enactment of possible emergencies and catastrophes has become a most common way of producing knowledge about events yet to occur. Preparedness exercises are frequently performed by public authorities at local and regional levels. Collaborative approaches among relevant actors are enhanced and evaluated through simulated accidents and acts of terror as well as school shootings and epidemic outbreaks. Due to the incalculability of many modern threats, enactment is employed as a method for rendering potential future events available as empirical phenomena. However, sometimes these potential futures are represented in ways that correspond only to imagined and fictional worlds. The aim of this article is to explore the enactment of unreal possibilities in contemporary preparedness exercises. The empirical material employed for this purpose consists of crisis plans and exercise guides used in public and official institutions in the United States as well as qualitative interviews with municipal safety coordinators in Sweden.

The Information Content of Risk Factor Disclosures in Quarterly Reports

SYNOPSIS I examine whether recently required risk factor update disclosures in quarterly reports provide investors with timely information regarding potential future negative economic events. Specifically, I examine whether risk factor updates in 10-Q filings are associated with negative abnormal returns at the time the updates are disclosed and whether quarterly updates are followed by negative earnings shocks. I find that firms presenting updates to their risk factor disclosures have significantly lower abnormal returns around the filing date of the 10-Q relative to firms without updates. I also find that firms with updates to their risk factors section have significantly lower future unexpected earnings and are more likely to experience future extreme negative earnings shocks. These findings suggest that the recent disclosure requirement mandated by the SEC was successful in generating timely disclosure of bad news. JEL Classifications: M41; M48; D80; G18. Data Availability: Please contact the author for data availability.

Enhancing Clinical Support and Collaboration through Creation of a Standardized Critical Event Debrief Process

<h2>Poster Presentation</h2><h3>Purpose for the Program</h3> Obstetric‐related critical events are self‐defined, often unexpected, traumatic events with the potential to involve multiple staff members that result in strong emotional responses for which usual coping mechanisms may be ineffective. Health care professionals are trained to clinically respond to patient‐related events; however, they may not have the resources to adequately respond to emotions triggered by these events. Health care providers in these situations may have feelings of worry or grief after the event. If these feelings are not addressed, they may lead to increased stress, hindrance of the ability to provide good care, and burnout. Debriefing is a group meeting arranged for the purpose of recounting and fact gathering after a critical event has occurred. The purpose is to help review processes and improve clinical practice, provide staff with emotional and psychologic support, and foster teamwork. <h3>Proposed Change</h3> To conduct a standardized debrief with the individuals involved in a critical event to help staff members discuss the event and identify who may need additional clinical or emotional support. <h3>Implementation, Outcomes, and Evaluation</h3> This hospital created a standardized debrief tool for utilization in newly established critical event debriefs. Critical events were described as self‐identified and included near misses, significant medication errors, and adverse events. As frontline leaders, unit‐charge nurses were the targeted group for initial education on the new, hospital‐wide, critical event debriefing process. They were educated on the purpose and importance of conducting a timely and confidential debrief after a critical event. The newly developed paper tool was presented to this group along with a discussion of the phases of debriefing that were used to structure the tool and common factors that may enhance or hinder an individual's response to the event. A counselor from the Employee Assistance Program was brought in to teach nurses how to conduct an emotional debriefing session. Feedback since implementation of the debriefing process has provided clinicians and the organization with valuable information that has been used to improve patient care and processes, communication between departments, and teamwork. <h3>Implications for Nursing Practice</h3> Empowering frontline leaders with the tools and resources to conduct debriefings after critical events is crucial to help review and improve clinical practice. In addition, the debriefing session provides a safe place to examine feelings, thoughts, and responses to the event to allow nurses to prepare for potential future events.

WELFARE EFFECTS OF U.S. LIBERTY LINK RICE CONTAMINATION

AbstractUnited States consumer confidence in food safety is an increasingly more prominent issue in food production and marketing. Estimating the welfare effects of a breakdown in the supply chain can provide a benchmark for the cost of potential future events. In 2006, United States long grain rice stocks were contaminated with an unapproved genetically modified rice variety causing trade disruptions predominantly between the United States and the European Union. Using a spatial partial equilibrium model the economic effects of European policy on bilateral trade flows and prices during this event was an estimated loss of $421.3 million US dollars.

Plausible megathrust tsunamis in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

Tsunamis have occurred at rates of about one to two per century in the Mediterranean Sea, on average, over the past 2000 years. However, most of these events have been of small amplitude and quantification of tsunami hazards in the eastern Mediterranean Sea remains difficult. Simulations were performed for a series of plausible Mw ≥ 8 seismic events originating along the Hellenic subduction zone and NW Cyprian Arc. Their locations and source characteristics represent events that are similar to the largest historical events, including the AD 365 and AD 1303 events, and in consideration of potential future events. The hydrodynamic simulations used the numerical model are known as the method of splitting tsunami (Most). Reported results include simulated wave amplitudes in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, specifically in the western Nile Delta region near the Rosetta promontory and Egypt's largest coastal city, Alexandria.

Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

Abstract. Deterministic forecasts of wind production for the next 72 h at a single wind farm or at the regional level are among the main end-users requirement. However, for an optimal management of wind power production and distribution it is important to provide, together with a deterministic prediction, a probabilistic one. A deterministic forecast consists of a single value for each time in the future for the variable to be predicted, while probabilistic forecasting informs on probabilities for potential future events. This means providing information about uncertainty (i.e. a forecast of the PDF of power) in addition to the commonly provided single-valued power prediction. A significant probabilistic application is related to the trading of energy in day-ahead electricity markets. It has been shown that, when trading future wind energy production, using probabilistic wind power predictions can lead to higher benefits than those obtained by using deterministic forecasts alone. In fact, by using probabilistic forecasting it is possible to solve economic model equations trying to optimize the revenue for the producer depending, for example, on the specific penalties for forecast errors valid in that market. In this work we have applied a probabilistic wind power forecast systems based on the "analog ensemble" method for bidding wind energy during the day-ahead market in the case of a wind farm located in Italy. The actual hourly income for the plant is computed considering the actual selling energy prices and penalties proportional to the unbalancing, defined as the difference between the day-ahead offered energy and the actual production. The economic benefit of using a probabilistic approach for the day-ahead energy bidding are evaluated, resulting in an increase of 23% of the annual income for a wind farm owner in the case of knowing "a priori" the future energy prices. The uncertainty on price forecasting partly reduces the economic benefit gained by using a probabilistic energy forecast system.

Forecasting Stock Index Movement Direction by Using Individual Forecasting Methods and Combining Forecasting Method

A better forecasting accuracy helps the investors and managers to provide relevant and reliable information about present andfuture events in stock market. Important decisions can be given confidently by managers if forecasting provides informationabout the potential future events and their consequences for possible stock market movements. A better forecasting methodreduces the level of uncertainty for the investors and managers. The index movement direction is forecasted by using eighttime series forecasting and naïve model and combination of these models which are more than five hundred. The data is takenas Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 index between the period of 2006 and 2012.

Simulation of flash floods in ungauged basins using post‐event surveys and numerical modelling

AbstractThe hydrological and hydraulic processes of the flash flood that affected Atrani village (Amalfi Coast of Southern Italy) on 9 September 2010 are analysed using post‐flood surveys and numerical modelling. Observations in this case are particularly challenging because of the small spatial and temporal scales of the event, relative to the sampling characteristics of conventional rain and discharge measurement networks. Given these aspects, some of the relevant characteristics of the event were deduced by analysing field data that were collected immediately after the event. A width function instantaneous unit hydrograph (WFIUH) rainfall‐runoff model is applied to derive a flow hydrograph for the area immediately upstream of the village. This hydrograph is inputted as an upstream boundary condition for the simulation of the propagation processes. A two‐dimensional innovative hydraulic model is used to reproduce the flood within the village. The use of an unstructured mesh enabled a detailed simulation of water flow within the narrow and winding alleyways of the village. The results of the simulations indicate agreement with the field observations. The implemented approach is suitable for simulating flash floods in similar contexts and, therefore, may be used to predict potential future events.