Potential Future Demands Research Articles

Solar geoengineering: Scenarios of future governance challenges

In the face of increasingly clear climate-change impacts and continued inadequacy of efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and adapt to ongoing climate changes, increasing attention has been directed to geoengineering: deliberate large-scale interventions in the Earth’s climate system to moderate global warming. Such interventions could reduce risks in novel ways, but are controversial because they present an uncertain, high-stakes mix of potential benefits and risks. Solar geoengineering poses especially acute international governance needs, particularly in the case of potential future demands to use it. Many aspects of geoengineering present deep, ill-structured uncertainties that carry high stakes for near-term decisions, and are thus suitable for exploration through scenarios. This collection of papers reports on a major scenario exercise examining governance challenges and potential responses for solar geoengineering, held at the International Summer School on Geoengineering Governance in Banff, Canada in 2019. This opening paper introduces geoengineering and the concerns it raises, particularly as they pertain to governance; reviews the design and use of scenario exercises to inform decisions under uncertainty, including their prior uses related to climate change and geoengineering; and outlines the aims, design, and process of this scenario exercise.

The exploitation of western and southern deserts in Iraq for the production of solar energy

<span>We have, an overview is presented of the potential future demands and possible supply of solar energy to Iraq. Solar energy, which is clean, unlimited, and environmentally friendly, is presented as a renewable energy resource. Many problems such as CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, industry, human activities, and electricity distribution grids have attracted much attention because of the current state of crude oil production and its prices. Moreover, estimations of solar radiation levels and of the efficiencies of photovoltaics (PVs), concentrated solar power (CSP), and solar chimney towers, have all been investigated. Those systems that combine various sources of energy are called hybrids and they have received much attention in recent decades. The basic features of solar radiation in Iraq are outlined, and the selection of those sites with potential for development of solar plants is based on the local largest solar radiation. Moreover, longitudinal and latitudinal orientation, wind, solar intensity, dust, temperature, rain, humidity, and pollution factors are all considered in the calculation of PV/CSP efficiencies. We know there is an abundance of fossil fuels in Iraq, energy shortages began in 1991 because of the perturbation caused by the full ruin of the country. The obvious renewable energy resource available in Iraq is the solar energy, and its exploitation would provide a means to reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and to achieve self-sufficiency of electric energy and export the rest to neighboring countries. Solar energy is becoming increasingly important because of the climatic change in the form of global warming.</span>

The multi-vehicle stochastic-dynamic inventory routing problem for bike sharing systems

We address the operational management of station-based bike sharing systems (BSSs). In BSSs, users can spontaneously rent and return bikes at any stations in the system. Demand is driven by commuter, shopping, and leisure activities. This demand constitutes a regular pattern of bike usage over the course of the day but also shows a significant short-term uncertainty. Due to the heterogeneity and the uncertainty in demand, stations may run out of bikes or congest during the day. At empty stations, no rental demand can be served. At full stations, no return demand can be served. To avoid unsatisfied demand, providers dynamically relocate bikes between stations in reaction of current shortages or congestion, but also in anticipation of potential future demand. For this real-time decision problem, we present a method that anticipates potential future demands based on historical observations and that coordinates the fleet of vehicles accordingly. We apply our method for two case studies based on real-world data of the BSSs in Minneapolis and San Francisco. We show that our policy outperforms benchmark policies from the literature. Moreover, we analyze how the interplay between anticipation and coordination is essential for the successful operational management of BSSs. Finally, we reveal that the value of coordination and anticipation based on the demand-structure of the BSS under consideration.

Dynamic Lookahead Policies for Stochastic-Dynamic Inventory Routing in Bike Sharing Systems

We present the stochastic-dynamic inventory routing problem for bike sharing systems (SDIRP). The objective of the SDIRP is to avoid unsatisfied demand by dynamically relocating bikes during the day. To anticipate potential future demands in the current inventory decisions, we present a dynamic lookahead policy (DLA). The policy simulates future demand over a predefined horizon. Because the heterogeneous demand patterns over the course of the day, the DLA horizons are time-dependent and autonomously parametrized by means of value function approximation, a method of approximate dynamic programming. We compare the DLA with conventional relocation strategies from the literature and lookahead policies with static horizons. Our study based on real-world data by the bike sharing system of Minneapolis (Minnesota, USA) reveals the benefits of both anticipation by lookaheads as well as the time-dependent horizons of the DLA. We additionally show how the DLA is able to autonomously adapt to the demand patterns.

The taxman cometh: Does tax uncertainty affect corporate cash holdings?

We examine whether firms hold more cash in the face of tax uncertainty. Because of gray areas in the tax law and aggressive tax avoidance, the total amount of tax that a firm will pay is uncertain at the time it files its returns. The tax authorities can challenge and disallow the firm’s tax positions, demanding additional cash tax payments. We hypothesize that firms facing greater tax uncertainty hold cash to satisfy these potential future demands. We find that both domestic firms and multinational firms hold larger cash balances when subject to greater tax uncertainty. In terms of economic significance, we find that the effect of tax uncertainty on cash holdings is comparable to that of repatriation taxes. Our evidence adds to knowledge about the real effects of tax avoidance and provides a tax-based precautionary explanation for why there is such wide variation in cash holdings across firms.

Solar energy status in Iraq: Abundant or not—Steps forward

Various topics such as CO2 emissions, industry, human activities, and electricity distribution grids have attracted considerable attention because of the current state of crude oil production. Furthermore, estimations of solar radiation levels and of the efficiencies of photovoltaics (PVs), concentrated solar power (CSP), and solar chimney towers, as well as other renewable energy sources such as wind, tidal, and geothermal, have all been investigated. Here, an overview is presented of the potential future demands and possible supply of solar energy in relation to Iraq. Solar and wind energy sources, which are clean, inexhaustible, and environmentally friendly, are presented as renewable energy resources. Those systems that combine various sources of energy are called hybrids and they have received considerable attention in recent decades. The fundamental characteristics of solar radiation in Iraq are summarized, and the selection of those sites with potential for development of solar plants is based on the local maximum solar radiation. Furthermore, longitudinal and latitudinal orientation, wind, solar intensity, dust, temperature, rain, humidity, and pollution factors are all considered in the calculation of PV/CSP efficiencies. A study of the variation of annual radiation levels was conducted. The average UV radiation was found to comprise 3.25% of the global radiation. Therefore, most of the 47% reduction in received incoming global solar UV radiation is due to scattering and absorption in the atmosphere. Details regarding the desalination of underground or polluted water resources to support solar energy systems and plants and to preserve a clean low-dust environment are presented.

Public perceptions of bioenergy and land use change: Comparing narrative frames of agriculture and forestry

While much research has focused on landowner perspectives for producing biomass to supply potential future bioenergy demands, there has been relatively little research on regional public opinion and perceptions of land use change associated with bioenergy production. This project investigates perceptions of potential bioenergy land use among the general public by using a natural experiment employing narrative frames of agriculture and forestry. Results show differences in public perceptions given these two narrative land use frames. Relatively high levels of uncertainty were found across both frames, especially related to perceptions of future impacts on local energy prices in the forestry frame. Understanding how land use frames can influence perceptions about bioenergy system development can help facilitate more effective communication while addressing potential uncertainties when moderating or participating in stakeholder group deliberation regarding bioenergy and related land use change.

European packaging industry foresight study—identifying global drivers and driven packaging industry implications of the global megatrends

The purpose of the research is to provide a common multi-client platform as a base for further applied foresight work in the packaging sector. It aims to be a reference for a future-oriented strategic dialogue and a platform for strategic business development. The ambition with the research is not to provide an accurate forecast, but rather to initiate an improved preparedness for and active influence on future developments. This is done by mapping and analyzing general trends and drivers in society. The potential packaging implications of those trends and drivers are then evaluated to highlight potential future demands, opportunities and threats for packaging. Methods include participatory workshops/focus groups with invited experts and users. Thus, this article provides results based on participatory foresight and Focus Group methodology. With a systematic and participatory process, a medium to long–term vision building is targeted to mobilize joint actions and influence current decision making.

Tax Risk and Corporate Cash Holdings

We examine whether firms hold more cash in the face of tax uncertainty. Because of grey areas in the tax law and aggressive tax avoidance, the total amount of tax that a firm will pay is uncertain at the time it files its returns. The tax authorities can challenge and disallow the firm’s tax positions, demanding additional cash tax payments. We hypothesize that firms facing greater tax uncertainty hold cash to satisfy these potential future demands. We find that both domestic firms and multinational firms hold larger cash balances when subject to greater tax uncertainty. In terms of economic significance, we find that the effect of tax uncertainty on cash holdings is comparable to that of repatriation taxes. Our evidence adds to our knowledge about the real effects of tax avoidance and provides a tax-based, precautionary explanation for why there is such wide variation in cash holdings across firms.

The potential to exploit use of building-integrated photovoltaics in countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council

The use of renewable forms of energy is important throughout the world, not just in countries where there are concerns over the availability of fossil fuels. In order to develop and promote suitable energy policies for the future it is necessary to gain an understanding of stakeholder views in all countries, including those with substantial fossil fuel reserves. The volume of construction work in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries has recently been at unprecedented levels, with a huge environmental impact from construction and also from potential future energy demands. The aim of this paper is to assess the potential to exploit use of a particular, but valuable, renewable energy option: building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) in those countries. Such exploitation could offset, at least in some part, the future environmental burdens. A large-scale survey, followed by a number of in-depth interviews, has been undertaken in order to examine the use of BIPV. Empirical research findings are presented, and then analysed in order to determine the current viability of a large-scale expansion of BIPV in the GCC region. The research indicates that the main factors hindering expansion are high costs and the negative public perception of BIPV in the countries concerned. Proposals are therefore provided to assist the development of suitable policies and the wider introduction of viable BIPV in the GCC markets.

Online multicast routing with bandwidth guarantees: A new approach using multicast network flow

We present a new algorithm for online routing of bandwidth-guaranteed multicasts where routing requests arrive one by one without any prior knowledge of future requests. A multicast routing request consists of a source, a set of receivers, and a bandwidth requirement. Two multicast applications of interest are routing of point-to-multipoint label-switched paths in multiprotocol label switched (MPLS) networks, and the provision of bandwidth-guaranteed virtual private network (VPN) services under the "hose" service model. Without prior knowledge of multicast requests, offline multicast routing algorithms cannot be used. Online algorithms are needed to handle requests arriving one by one and to satisfy as many potential future demands as possible. Our new online algorithm is based on the idea that a newly routed multicast must follow a route that does not interfere too much with network paths that may be critical to satisfy future demands. We develop a multicast tree selection heuristic based on the idea of deferred loading of certain critical links. The algorithm identifies them as links that, if heavily loaded, would make it impossible to satisfy future demands between certain ingress-egress pairs. The algorithm uses link-state information and some auxiliary capacity information for multicast tree selection and is amenable to distributed implementation. Unlike previous algorithms, our algorithm exploits any available knowledge of the network ingress-egress points of potential future demands, even though the demands themselves are unknown. It performs very well.

Minimum interference routing of bandwidth guaranteed tunnels with MPLS traffic engineering applications

This paper presents new algorithms for dynamic routing of bandwidth guaranteed tunnels, where tunnel routing requests arrive one by one and there is no a priori knowledge regarding future requests. This problem is motivated by the service provider needs for fast deployment of bandwidth guaranteed services. Offline routing algorithms cannot be used since they require a priori knowledge of all tunnel requests that are to be rooted. Instead, on-line algorithms that handle requests arriving one by one and that satisfy as many potential future demands as possible are needed. The newly developed algorithms are on-line algorithms and are based on the idea that a newly routed tunnel must follow a route that does not "interfere too much" with a route that may he critical to satisfy a future demand. We show that this problem is NP-hard. We then develop path selection heuristics which are based on the idea of deferred loading of certain "critical" links. These critical links are identified by the algorithm as links that, if heavily loaded, would make it impossible to satisfy future demands between certain ingress-egress pairs. Like min-hop routing, the presented algorithm uses link-state information and some auxiliary capacity information for path selection. Unlike previous algorithms, the proposed algorithm exploits any available knowledge of the network ingress-egress points of potential future demands, even though the demands themselves are unknown. If all nodes are ingress-egress nodes, the algorithm can still be used, particularly to reduce the rejection rate of requests between a specified subset of important ingress-egress pairs. The algorithm performs well in comparison to previously proposed algorithms on several metrics like the number of rejected demands and successful rerouting of demands upon link failure.

Online multicast routing with bandwidth guarantees

This paper presents a new algorithm for on-line routing of bandwidth-guaranteed multicasts where routing requests arrive one-by-one without there being any a priori knowledge of future requests. A multicast routing request consists of a source s , a set of receivers R , and a bandwidth requirement b . This multicast routing problem arises in many contexts. Two applications of interest are routing of point-to-multipoint label-switched paths in Multi-Protocol Label Switched (MPLS) networks, and the provision of bandwidth guaranteed Virtual Private Network (VPN) services under the “hose” service model [17]. Offline multicast routing algorithms cannot be used since they require a priori knowledge of all multicast requests that are to be routed. Instead, on-line algorithms that handle requests arriving one-by-one and that satisfy as many potential future demands as possible are needed. The newly developed algorithm is an on-line algorithm and is based on the idea that a newly routed multicast must follow a route that does not “interfere too much” with network paths that may be critical to satisfy future demands. We develop a multicast tree selection heuristic that is based on the idea of deferred loading of certain “critical” links. These critical links are identified by the algorithm as links that, if heavily loaded, would make it impossible to satisfy future demands between certain ingress-egress pairs. The presented algorithm uses link-state information and some auxilliary capacity information for multicast tree selection and is amenable to distributed implementation. Unlike previous algorithms, the proposed algorithm exploits any available knowledge of the network ingress-egress points of potential future demands even though the demands themselves are unknown and performs very well.

The Generalizability Effect of Learning Strategies for Categories of Psychomotor Skills

This paper emphasizes the need for the recognition of the importance of cognitive processes and appropriate learner strategies for achievement in psychomotor tasks. A taskanalysis procedure in an informational processing perspective is proposed that should help classify tasks in order to M e strategies that instructom might teach and learners might use. The primary objective is not only to aid initial learning in formal instructional programs. We are also concerned with learners developing an ability to generalize to and to accommodate potential future related task demands once they have finished their programs and are on their own.