Potential Future Changes Research Articles

Sustainable governance of drinking water conservation areas based on adaptive thresholds

Drinking water quality is integral to the Sustainable Development Goals framework. At the present, China's drinking water conservation faces a number of challenges that are partially brought on by strict conservation measures that don't fully take into account human-land conflict and sustainable development. Taking the idea of adaptive governance, this study seeks to identify adaptive thresholds and adaptive solutions for compatible drinking water conservation and local development. Pressure and resistance to drinking water quality in its status, future potential, and adaptive thresholds were explored to identify sustainable governance for the Baimei Conservation Area, Fujian Province. Field research, local governance forums, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were utilized to explore the drinking water quality pressure and resistance to drinking water quality. In order to uncover potential future changes in pressure and resistance, suitability analyses and multi-scenario simulations were used to examine the status quo, pressure, and resistance scenarios. Adaptive thresholds were then identified through SWAT modeling of each scenario to guarantee the drinking water quality is greater than Class II in the Core Conservation Area and Class Ⅲ in 2nd-grade Conservation Area, respectively. The research finds that construction land development and farming are the key pressures on drinking water quality, and forests and wetlands are the primary resistances. The expansion of construction lands and the increased wetlands was centered on potential future scenarios because farming has no room for growth and forests are already heavily covered. The adaptive threshold of construction land expansion is identified to be 10% without new wetlands but can be 20% by adding 10% wetlands in subbasins, 5, 8, and 9. This study confirms the potential of adaptive sustainability for drinking water conservation areas. A similar analysis procedure can also be adapted to enhance adaptive governance for the sustainability of other conservation areas nationally and globally.

Flash Drought Indicator Intercomparison in the United States

Abstract Increased flash drought awareness in recent years has motivated the development of numerous indicators for monitoring, early warning, and assessment. The flash drought indicators can act as a complementary set of tools by which to inform flash drought response and management. However, the limitations of each indicator much be measured and communicated between research and practitioners to ensure effectiveness. The limitations of any flash drought indicator are better understood and overcome through assessment of indicator sensitivity and consistency; however, such assessment cannot assume any single indicator properly represents the flash drought “truth.” To better understand the current state of flash drought monitoring, this study presents an intercomparison of nine, widely used flash drought indicators. The indicators represent perspectives and processes that are known to drive flash drought, including evapotranspiration and evaporative demand, precipitation, and soil moisture. We find no single flash drought indicator consistently outperforms all others across the contiguous United States. We do find the evaporative demand- and evapotranspiration-driven indicators tend to lead precipitation- and soil moisture-based indicators in flash drought onset, but also tend to produce more flash drought events collectively. Overall, the regional and definition-specific variability in results supports the argument for a multi-indicator approach for flash drought monitoring, as advocated by recent studies. Furthermore, flash drought research—especially evaluation of historical and potential future changes in flash drought characteristics—should test multiple indicators, datasets, and methods for representing flash drought, and ideally employ a multi-indicator analysis framework over use of a single indicator from which to infer all flash drought information. Significance Statement Rapid onset or “flash” drought has been an increasing concern globally, with quickly intensifying impacts to agriculture, ecosystems, and water resources. Many tools and indicators have been developed to monitor and provide early warning for flash drought, ideally resulting in more time for effective mitigation and reduced impacts. However, there remains no widely accepted single method for defining, monitoring, and measuring flash drought, which means most indicators that are developed are compared with other individual indicators or conditions and impacts in one or two flash drought events. In this study, we measure the state of flash drought monitoring through an intercomparison of nine, widely used flash drought indicators that represent different aspects of flash drought. We find that no single flash drought indicator outperformed all others and suggest that a comprehensive flash drought monitor should leverage multiple, complementary indicators, datasets, and methods. Furthermore, we suggest flash drought research—especially that which reflects on historical or projected changes in flash drought characteristics—should seek multiple indicators, datasets, and methods for analyses, thereby reducing the potentially confounding effects of sensitivity to a single indicator.

Interspecific killing of wolverines by one wolf pack.

Interactions between different species of predators are not uncommon, yet they are generally understudied in North America. Across their range, gray wolves (Canis lupus) and wolverines (Gulo gulo) occupy similar habitats and dietary niches. However, due to the elusiveness and relatively low density of these two species, interactions between them are not well documented. Here, we describe three instances of a single wolf pack killing a wolverine in the span of 13 months. None of the wolverines killed by wolves were consumed, suggesting that food was not the primary motivation behind the killings. Alternatively, defense of a food resource, territoriality, interspecific competitive killing, or some combination of those behaviors appear to be the cause of these actions. Documentation of these occurrences improves our understanding of wolf and wolverine ecology, interspecific predator interactions, and potential future changes to this aspect of community ecology.

Potential future changes in soil carbon dynamics in the Ziwuling Forest, China under different climate change scenarios

Soil carbon (C) cycling processes in terrestrial ecosystems are significantly influenced by global changes, and soil microorganisms play a crucial role in soil organic carbon (SOC) and its feedbacks to climate change. To investigate the potential future changes in soil C dynamics under different scenarios in the Ziwuling Forest region, China, we conducted a soil observation and sampling experiment from April 2021 to July 2022. By utilizing a microbial ecological model (MEND), we aimed to predict the future dynamics of soil C under different scenarios in the area. Our results demonstrate that under the RCP2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, SOC showed a rapid increase, SOC under the RCP2.6 scenario will be significantly higher than those under the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario in the topsoil and whole soil. Furthermore, the positive correlation between total litter carbon (LC) and SOC under the RCP2.6 scenario highlights the potential role of total litter carbon in driving SOC dynamics. Our study also revealed that the low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario favors the accumulation of SOC in the study area, while the high GHG emission scenario leads to greater soil carbon loss. Overall, these results underscore the importance of considering the impact of climate change, especially global warming, on soil ecosystems in the future. Protecting the soil ecosystem of the Loess Plateau is critical for maintaining soil carbon sinks, preventing soil erosion, and improving and regulating the surrounding environmental climate.

The role of sea surface temperature in shaping the characteristics of future convective afternoon rainfall in Taiwan

Convective afternoon rainfall (CAR) is a significant summer rainfall feature in Taiwan. This study investigates the projected uncertainties in summer CAR in Taiwan, using a dynamical downscaling approach with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). The projections were driven by four different sea surface temperature (SST) categories derived from CMIP5 model simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario. All projections indicate a reduced frequency but increased intensity of CAR over Taiwan by the end of the 21st century. However, notable differences in the degree of CAR changes were observed among simulations with varying degrees of Pacific SST warming. These variations in potential future changes in CAR frequency and intensity can be attributed to the variations in daytime thermal instability, local inland wind convergence, and moisture flux convergence over Taiwan. Furthermore, this study explored the linkage between local thermodynamic conditions and projected large-scale circulation patterns.

Gold mining's environmental footprints, drivers, and future predictions in Ghana

The last two decades have seen a surge in gold mining operations around the world. Despite mining occupying a smaller geographical area compared to other land use/land cover (LULC) classes, it exhibits strong interconnections with various land uses and serves as a major driver for changes in mining landscapes. Understanding and evaluating historical and potential future LULC changes in these landscapes are crucial in assessing the environmental impact of mining. Traditionally, these assessments heavily rely on geospatial techniques, with limited emphasis on projecting future LULC trends. This research aims to monitor, analyse the drivers of change, and predict future changes in LULC under two scenarios: the “business as usual” scenario and the "remedial measures" scenarios. Utilising the CA-Markov model, this article predicts LULC changes and offers comprehensive insights into the environmental impacts of mining, combining geospatial and social research methodologies. The investigation spanned a 34-year period (1986–2020) and employed a blend of supervised and unsupervised image classification methods, complemented by interviews, focus groups, and field observations. The findings reveal substantial land degradation, water pollution, and a significant loss of forest cover, accounting for 27,333 ha (36%). Continuation of current mining practices is predicted to lead to further ecological deterioration.

Fertility preservation in reproductive-aged female patients with colorectal cancer: a scoping review.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in adults younger than 50 years is steadily increasing in the USA, and treatment for CRC can impact future fertility. However, fertility decision-making in female patients with CRC can be complex, with fertility preservation (FP) counseling occurring inconsistently. The goal of this scoping review was to assess the literature regarding the frequency and quality of fertility preservation (FP) discussions taking place among oncology clinicians and their reproductive-age female patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) in order to identify existing gaps in care and inform future research, interventions, or potential changes in practice. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using the Ovid Medline, PsycInfo, and Scopus databases in order to identify studies pertaining to FP counseling in reproductive-age female patients with CRC. We used Covidence to screen studies for relevance and to extract data. Findings of interest included rate of fertility and/or FP discussions, patient characteristics associated with fertility discussions, initiators of discussions, rate of referrals to fertility specialists, patient utilization of FP services, and unmet fertility needs. We performed both quantitative and qualitative data synthesis. We identified five studies that met our inclusion criteria, all published between 2007 and 2022. Frequency of fertility counseling discussions was low across studies, with a range of 15 to 52.5% of female patients with CRC receiving counseling. Patient characteristics which may be associated with likelihood of fertility discussion included age, parity, number of children, cancer location and stage, treatment type, and quality of life. The literature suggested that fertility discussions were initiated by clinicians about two-thirds of the time, and medical oncologists were the clinicians most likely to initiate. Studies did capture unmet fertility-related patient needs; participants who did not receive counseling often expressed desire for these discussions and regret that they did not occur. Despite increasing incidence of CRC in patients at younger ages, this scoping review found a dearth of research conducted on young female CRC patients' experiences with fertility counseling and referrals. Notably, the existing research reveals that relatively few of these patients are receiving appropriate counseling. Additional research is needed to clarify current FP counseling practices, patient and clinician perceptions about FP, and ways to improve the quantity and quality of FP counseling in this patient population.

Distribution ofDrepanaphis acerifoliae– aphid pest of Acer trees – faced with global climate change

The genusDrepanaphisdel Guercio currently includes 16 species, all of which are found in North America. Representatives of this genus are narrow oligophages associated mainly with plants of the genusAcer.Previous studies have focused only on the morphology of selected species, while not considering their geographical distribution. Among all species, the painted maple aphidDrepanaphis acerifoliaedeserves particular attention, because it represents the broadest range in North America and is the only species of this genus to be found outside of its natural range, i.e. in Europe. Thanks to suitable niche modelling based on a maximum entropy model, we were able to present maps with the potential distribution ofD.acerifoliaein its natural range. In North America, its distribution coincides with the natural range of the host plants (native to the eastern part), as well as the areas where they are planted (the western part). An extrapolation of these results to the area of Europe allowed for the designation of places where the aphids can find suitable climatic conditions for developing and expanding their spatial distribution. The model indicated the Mediterranean basin, almost all of Italy, excluding mountainous areas, Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the western part of Germany, the southeast and central part of Great Britain, Hungary and the Balkan Peninsula. In a more continental view, the model pointed to areas stretching from the middle of eastern Ukraine, including Crimea, through Russia, to northern parts of Kazakhstan along the border with Russia. Additionally, the impact of climate change on the spread of the species within the next 80 years was analysed, both in North America and Europe. Models considering the potential future climate changes indicate thatD.acerifoliaemay find suitable niches further north of its current ranges. In North America, this is mostly areas of eastern Canada, while in Europe it includes the central and eastern part and the Asian part of Russia.

Potential present and future distributions of the genus Atta of Mexico.

Temperature and precipitation influence insect distribution locally and drive large-scale biogeographical patterns. We used current and future climate data from the CHELSA database to create ensemble species distribution models for three Atta leaf-cutting ant species (Atta cephalotes, A. mexicana, and A. texana) found in Mexico. These models were used to estimate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species in the future. Our results show that bioclimatic variables influence the distribution of each Atta species occupying a unique climatic niche: A. cephalotes is affected by temperature seasonality, A. mexicana by isothermality, and A. texana by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Atta texana and A. mexicana are expected to decline their range by 80% and 60%, respectively, due to rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, and increased drought. Due to rising temperatures and increased humidity, Atta cephalotes is expected to expand its range by 30%. Since Atta species are important pests, our coexistence with them requires knowledge of their ecological functions and potential future distribution changes. In addition, these insects serve as bioindicators of habitat quality, and they can contribute to the local economy in rural areas since they are eaten as food for the nutritional value of the queens. In this sense, presenting a future perspective of these species' distribution is important for forest and crop management. Education programs also are necessary to raise awareness of the importance of these ants and the challenges they face because of climate change. Our results offer a perspective of climate change studies to define conservation and adaptation strategies for protecting vulnerable areas such as high-elevation remnant forests.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Al Abila Dam in the Western Desert of Iraq

The potential impacts resulting from climate change will cause significant global problems, particularly in underdeveloped nations where the effects are felt the most. Techniques for harvesting water such as small dams provide an alternative supply of water and are adaptive solutions to deal with water scarcity in the context of future climate change. However, it is difficult to determine how rainwater harvesting (dams) may be impacted by climate change since general circulation models (GCMs), widely utilized for predicting potential future climate change scenarios, work on an extremely large scale. The primary aim of this research was to quantify the effect of climate change on water availability at the catchment scale by statistically downscaling temperature and rainfall from the GCMs. Then, using a water harvesting model, the performance of the Abila Dam in Iraq’s western desert was evaluated in both the current climate (1990–2020) and various future climate change scenarios (2020–2100). Precipitation generally decreases as the annual temperature increases. To simulate future water availability, these changes in meteorological factors were incorporated into the water harvesting model. In total, 15% or less of net storage might fulfil the whole storage capacity during the baseline period, whereas it is 10% in RCP 2.6 in 2011–2040 for future scenarios. In contrast, RCP 8.5 will be able to meet water needs at a pace of 6% in 2011–2040. The findings of this study proved that the Al Abila dam will be unable to supply the necessary water for the area surrounding the Al Abila dam in the future scenarios.

Bio-geophysical feedback to climate caused by the conversion of Amazon Forest to soybean plantations

Over the past two decades, soybean cultivation has become one of the principal replacements for forests in the Brazilian Amazon. Previous studies showed that the conversion of forests into large-scale soybean farms has different effects on local and regional climate than other forms of land use, e.g., conversion to pasture. The bio-geophysical feedbacks that lead to changes in temperature and rainfall caused by the expansion of commodity crops is not fully understood, and this has implications for both modelling potential future climatic change and understanding its impact. Here we performed model simulations to characterize the feedback to climate caused by the replacement of Amazonian forests with soybean and pastures. Our results show that: when compared to deforestation caused by pastures, the conversion of forests into soybean plantations results in more pronounced changes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Because they are characterized by a period of the year with bare soil, soybean fields transmit more long-wave radiation to the atmosphere than pastures, leading to an increase in boundary layer average temperature by 2.4 K. Although soybean plantations tend to strengthen convective lifting, the decrease in boundary layer water vapor content plays a decisive role in reducing rainfall. Finally, we demonstrate that the climatic impacts associated with the replacement of forests by soybean is likely to be magnified with agricultural expansion along new frontiers in the northern and western regions of the Amazon basin due to a more pronounced reduction in water vapor content.

QUANTIFYING AND CLASSIFYING COASTAL CHANGE IN SCOTLAND USING SATELLITE-DERIVED COASTAL BOUNDARIES

Global sea levels and the frequency and severity of coastal storm events are both predicted to rise with anthropogenic climate change. Coastal storms are often accompanied by intense wave energy producing large waves which lead to impact damage, wave overtopping and flooding of coastal infrastructure Erosion of soft coasts can cause instability and infrastructure damage, and exacerbate flood risk with weakening of natural protective features like dunes. To plan effectively for a changing climate and increased coastal risks, coastal managers require continuous, repeatable datasets on past coastal change to anticipate potential future changes and assess adaptation options.

AN ADAPTIVE PATHWAY TO COASTAL RESILIENCE

The sustainability of our coastal communities and economy is depend upon extensive systems of human and natural infrastructure. These systems need to be reliable, resilient to extreme events and adaptive to future changes in economic and environment conditions as well as adaptable to potential future climate change. In making long term decisions, it is important to make and implement choices that are robust and adaptive. This paper considers approaches being adopted to deliver confidence in coastal management decision making, while providing the scope to adjust course as necessary in the face of future climate.

MIGRATION AND WELDING OF AN ESTUARINE BARRIER-SPIT DRIVEN BY DELTA EVOLUTION AND STORMS

As sea levels rise globally in response to anthropogenic climate change, coastal depositional systems that persist in dynamic equilibrium with accommodation space, sediment supply and hydrodynamic processes may begin to respond by redistributing sediment, causing erosion or migration of landforms that may have appeared as stable over previous decades to centuries. In contrast, systems that have adjusted to inherited or changing boundary conditions over historical times offer insights on the modes and timescales of potential future change in remobilised coastal systems. We investigate the coupled evolution of an estuarine sand barrier-spit and tidal delta over the past century, focusing on storm-driven erosion and overwash during recent decades that triggered recurrent barrier migration (rollover), ultimately welding it to the bedrock valley framework. Historical aerial photographs and recent high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery are analysed to map morphological change and calculate decadal trends in shoreline and barrier migration. Ocean wave and water level conditions between image dates capturing notable responses are analysed using wave and tide records from nearby measurement stations.

Future Implications of Climate Change on Arum palaestinum Boiss: Drought Tolerance, Growth and Production

The objectives of the work were to understand the potential future climate changes in the Mediterranean region, assess the drought tolerance of the black calla lily (Arum palaestinum Boiss.), and investigate the mechanisms associated with its ability to withstand drought conditions. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to predict future temperature and precipitation changes. Both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios predicted a general increase in minimum and maximum temperatures and a decrease in precipitation. The projected increase in minimum temperature ranged from 2.95 °C under SSP2-4.5 to 5.67 °C under SSP5-8.5. The projected increase in maximum temperature ranged from 0.69 °C under SSP2-4.5 to 3.34 °C under SSP5-8.5. The projected decrease in precipitation ranged from −1.04 mm/day under SSP2-4.5 to −1.11 mm/day under SSP5-8.5. Results indicated that drought significantly impacted the physiological responses of the black calla lily. As drought increased, the black calla lily showed a reduction in leaf characteristics and non-structural carbohydrates, while proline content and reducing sugar content were increased, enhancing drought tolerance through osmoregulation. The black calla lily tolerates drought at a total ET of up to 50%. It has the potential to adapt to expected climate change through osmoregulation or by building a carbon and nitrogen sink for stress recovery.

Towards a better understanding of pathways of multiple co-occurring erosion processes on global cropland

Soil erosion is a complex process involving multiple natural and anthropic agents, causing the deterioration of multiple components comprising soil health. Here, we provide an estimate of the spatial patterns of cropland susceptibility to erosion by sheet and rill, gully, wind, tillage, and root crops harvesting and report the co-occurrence of these processes using a multi-model approach. In addition, to give a global overview of potential future changes, we identify the locations where these multiple concurrent soil erosion processes may be expected to intersect with projected dry/wet climate changes by 2070. Of a modelled 1.48 billion hectares (B ha) of global cropland, our results indicate that 0.56 B ha (∼36% of the total area) are highly susceptible (classes 4 and 5) to a single erosion process, 0.27 B ha (∼18% of the total area) to two processes and 0.02 B ha (1.4% of the total area) to three or more processes. An estimated 0.82 B ha of croplands are susceptible to possible increases in water (0.68 B ha) and wind (0.14 B ha) erosion. We contend that the presented set of estimates represents a basis for enhancing our foundational knowledge on the geography of soil erosion at the global scale. The generated insight on multiple erosion processes can be a useful starting point for decision-makers working with ex-post and ex-ante policy evaluation of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 15 (Life on Land) activities. Scientifically, this work provides the hitherto most comprehensive assessment of soil erosion risks at the global scale, based on state-of-the-art models.

Economic feasibility of achieving net-zero emission building (NZEB) by applying solar and geothermal energy sources to heat pump systems: A case in the United States residential sector

Buildings are one of the major sectors responsible for high energy demand and GHG emissions worldwide, which is driving expectations for implementing net-zero emission buildings (NZEBs) in many countries. Specifically, most developed countries have a carbon-neutral target set up for 2050, mandating all new buildings from then to be constructed as net-zero emission. Therefore, this paper investigated the economic feasibility of implementing NZEBs in the United States residential sector by combining a heat pump system with two renewable energy sources that are heavily supported by the federal government: solar and geothermal technologies. First, this study clearly demonstrates that “net-zero emission” is the most challenging task among neutralizing the energetic, economic, and environmental by-products from building operations. Moreover, this study analyzed the payback periods of multiple NZEB scenarios by considering the potential future changes in technology and policy necessarily required to meet the net-zero emission target by 2050. For reference, the technological and institutional factors were represented by “PV energy conversion rate” and “CO2 equivalent price of emission trading scheme (ETS)”, respectively. The results show that improving the PV energy conversion rate is much more effective in reducing the payback period of NZEBs compared to raising the CO2 equivalent price of ETS. However, the growing public awareness for this CO2 regulation policy will soon bring synergistic effect with the advancement of PV technology. In conclusion, this research framework clarifies the rather vague technological and institutional challenges that should be addressed to allow NZEBs to become economically feasible in the United States residential sector. Therefore, many building engineers, PV technicians, and policymakers should actively contribute to improving the techno-economic drivers for implementing NZEBs by 2050.

Bereavement issues and prolonged grief disorder: A global perspective.

The death of a loved one - bereavement - is a universal experience that marks the human mental health condition. Grief - the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral responses to bereavement - is thus experienced by virtually everyone at some point in life, while mourning is a process through which grievers come to terms with the loss envisioning life without the deceased. Although distress subsides over time among most bereaved individuals, a minority will develop a condition recently identified as prolonged grief disorder (PGD). The present review provides a global perspective on bereavement, grief reactions, and PGD. Although the loss of a loved one and grief reactions are in general experienced consistently across different cultures, differences and variations in their expression may exist across cultures. Especially within specific populations that may be more at risk for PGD, possibly due to risk factors associated with the mechanisms of loss (e.g., refugees, migrants, and conflict survivors). The diagnostic criteria for PGD are mostly based on Western grieving populations, and cultural adaptations of PGD treatments are limited. Therefore, cross-cultural development and validation of PGD screening/assessment is critical to support future research on grief reactions and PGD, especially in non-Western contexts, and concerning the potential future global changes and challenges that appear to have a major impact on PGD. More transcultural research on PGD is needed to contextualize and will lead to culture-bound symptom identification of PGD, and the adaptation of current treatment protocols, which may ultimately improve health at the individual level, and health-care systems.

Spatial–Temporal Distribution Pattern of Ormosia hosiei in Sichuan under Different Climate Scenarios

Ormosia hosiei is an endemic plant in China listed as a national grade II key protected wild plant with important scientific, economic, and cultural values. This study was designed to predict the potential suitable distribution areas for O. hosiei under current and future climate change and to provide a reference to enhance the species’ conservation and utilization. Based on the actual geographical locations of O. hosiei in Sichuan, we applied two species distribution models (BIOCLIM and DOMAIN) to predict its current and future potential suitable areas and future change patterns. We also analyzed the major climatic variables limiting its geographical distribution with principal component analysis. The results indicated that O. hosiei was mainly distributed in the eastern region of Sichuan and concentrated in the middle subtropical climate zone at relatively low elevations. The principal component analysis identified two critical factors representing temperature and moisture. The temperature was the most critical factor limiting O. hosiei distribution in Sichuan, especially the effect of extreme low temperatures. Both models’ simulation results of potential suitable areas under the current climate scenario showed that the excellent suitable habitat was consistent with the current actual distribution, remaining in the eastern region of Sichuan. Under the future climate scenario with doubled CO2 concentration (2100), both models predicted a sharp decrease in the areas of excellent and very high suitable habitats. The findings can inform strategies and guidelines for O. hosiei research, conservation, nursery production, and cultivation in Sichuan.

Structural Forecasting for Short-Term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance

Abstract Because geostationary satellite (Geo) imagery provides a high temporal resolution window into tropical cyclone (TC) behavior, we investigate the viability of its application to short-term probabilistic forecasts of TC convective structure to subsequently predict TC intensity. Here, we present a prototype model that is trained solely on two inputs: Geo infrared imagery leading up to the synoptic time of interest and intensity estimates up to 6 h prior to that time. To estimate future TC structure, we compute cloud-top temperature radial profiles from infrared imagery and then simulate the evolution of an ensemble of those profiles over the subsequent 12 h by applying a deep autoregressive generative model (PixelSNAIL). To forecast TC intensities at hours 6 and 12, we input operational intensity estimates up to the current time (0 h) and simulated future radial profiles up to +12 h into a “nowcasting” convolutional neural network. We limit our inputs to demonstrate the viability of our approach and to enable quantification of value added by the observed and simulated future radial profiles beyond operational intensity estimates alone. Our prototype model achieves a marginally higher error than the National Hurricane Center’s official forecasts despite excluding environmental factors, such as vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature. We also demonstrate that it is possible to reasonably predict short-term evolution of TC convective structure via radial profiles from Geo infrared imagery, resulting in interpretable structural forecasts that may be valuable for TC operational guidance. Significance Statement This work presents a new method of short-term probabilistic forecasting for tropical cyclone (TC) convective structure and intensity using infrared geostationary satellite observations. Our prototype model’s performance indicates that there is some value in observed and simulated future cloud-top temperature radial profiles for short-term intensity forecasting. The nonlinear nature of machine learning tools can pose an interpretation challenge, but structural forecasts produced by our model can be directly evaluated and, thus, may offer helpful guidance to forecasters regarding short-term TC evolution. Since forecasters are time limited in producing each advisory package despite a growing wealth of satellite observations, a tool that captures recent TC convective evolution and potential future changes may support their assessment of TC behavior in crafting their forecasts.