Potential For Future Production Research Articles

Prospective environmental risk screening of seven advanced materials based on production volumes and aquatic ecotoxicity

The number and volume of advanced materials being manufactured is increasing. In order to mitigate future impacts from such materials, assessment methods that can provide early indications of potential environmental risk are required. This paper presents a further development and testing of an environmental risk screening method based on two proxy measures: aquatic ecotoxicity and global annual production volumes. In addition to considering current production volumes, this further developed method considers potential future production volumes, thereby enabling prospective environmental risk screening. The proxy measures are applied to seven advanced materials: graphene, graphene oxide, nanocellulose, nanodiamond, quantum dots, nano-sized molybdenum disulfide, and MXenes. Only MXenes show high aquatic ecotoxicity, though the number of test results is still very limited. While current production volumes are relatively modest for most materials, several of the materials (graphene, graphene oxide, nanocellulose, nano-sized molybdenum disulfide, and MXenes) have the potential to become high-volume materials in the future. For MXenes, with both high aquatic ecotoxicity and high potential future production volumes, more detailed environmental risk assessments should be considered. For the other materials with high potential future production volumes, the recommendation is to continuously monitor their aquatic ecotoxicity data. Based on the application of the proxy measures combined with future scenarios for production volumes, we recommend this environmental risk screening method be used in the early development of advanced materials to prioritize which advanced materials should be subject to more detailed environmental assessments.

Prediction of Crop Yield for New Mexico Based on Climate and Remote Sensing Data for the 1920–2019 Period

Agricultural production systems in New Mexico (NM) are under increased pressure due to climate change, drought, increased temperature, and variable precipitation, which can affect crop yields, feeds, and livestock grazing. Developing more sustainable production systems requires long-term measurements and assessment of climate change impacts on yields, especially over such a vulnerable region. Providing accurate yield predictions plays a key role in addressing a critical sustainability gap. The goal of this study is the development of effective crop yield predictions to allow for a better-informed cropland management and future production potential, and to develop climate-smart adaptation strategies for increased food security. The objectives were to (1) identify the most important climate variables that significantly influence and can be used to effectively predict yield, (2) evaluate the advantage of using remotely sensed data alone and in combination with climate variables for yield prediction, and (3) determine the significance of using short compared to long historical data records for yield prediction. This study focused on yield prediction for corn, sorghum, alfalfa, and wheat using climate and remotely sensed data for the 1920–2019 period. The results indicated that the use of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) alone is less accurate in predicting crop yields. The combination of climate and NDVI variables provided better predictions compared to the use of NDVI only to predict wheat, sorghum, and corn yields. However, the use of a climate only model performed better in predicting alfalfa yield. Yield predictions can be more accurate with the use of shorter data periods that are based on region-specific trends. The identification of the most important climate variables and accurate yield prediction pertaining to New Mexico’s agricultural systems can aid the state in developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance the sustainability of these systems.

The Anadarko “Super” Basin: 10 key characteristics to understand its productivity

More than 50 basins worldwide are identified as “super basins,” defined as a basin with cumulative production of at least 5 billion BOE (∼0.8 billion m3) and with future production potential of more than 5 billion BOE. By this definition, the Anadarko Basin is a super basin; cumulative production is close to 50 billion BOE (∼7.9 billion m3) and unconventional reservoirs have the potential to produce another 50 billion BOE. At least 10 characteristics justify classification of the Anadarko Basin as “super,” namely, 8 key geologic elements and 2 technical and surface characteristics. First, the most important characteristic of a super basin is its source rocks. The Woodford Shale is the dominant source rock in the Anadarko Basin. It has generated and expelled more than 300 billion BOE (more than 47.7 billion m3). Second, the basin was initiated by a failed rift in the late Precambrian–middle Cambrian. Third, the basin was filled with 40,000 ft of Paleozoic strata and multiple reservoirs. Fourth, because of the absence of significant structural inversion in the basin proper, source rocks and migrated oil and gas are mostly mature and relatively predictable with regard to depth of generation. Fifth, a critically important attribute is the left-lateral, north-south basement strike-slip fault system. Sixth, these faults and related fractures along with unconformities and laterally continuous reservoirs provide abundant migration pathways to good regional and local seals. Consequently, the number of accumulations of petroleum is very large and the styles of traps are numerous and varied. Seventh, among the attributes that make the basin productive are numerous cells of overpressured strata and, eighth, an overall paragenetic history that resulted in the development of porous reservoirs. The ninth and tenth features are technological advances and surface conditions, respectively. As a result, the Anadarko Basin has a history of significant conventional oil and gas production and a bright promise of significant nonconventional production.

An experimental investigation on the combustion characteristics of a direct injection diesel engine fuelled with an algal biodiesel and its diesel blends

Conscientious efforts by researchers established that microalgae have huge potential for future energy production. Microalgae strain Euglena sanguinea has been collected locally and cultivated in a photoautotrophic mode. The microalgae lipid is extracted from the biomass and subsequently, biodiesel (BD) has been prepared for diesel engine experimental investigation. The main objective of the present study was to analyze various combustion characteristics of underutilized E. sanguinea BD in an agricultural diesel engine. Combustion performance of E. sanguinea biodiesel and its five different diesel–biodiesel blends (ES10, ES20, ES30, ES40, and ES50) have been studied at different engine loading conditions (0–100%). At full load, ignition delay (ID) reduced by 12.04% for ES100, 8.43% for ES50 and 7.22% for ES40. Combustion duration gradually drops up to ES40 and after that it increases marginally as biodiesel (BD) dosage increases in the blend. Peak cylinder pressure (PCP) and mean gas temperature (MGT) increases with an increase in algae BD concentration in the blend. Net heat release rate (NHRR) and rate of pressure rise (RPR) decrease with an increase in the algal BD concentration in the blend. At full load, PCP and MGT of ES100 (58.11 bar and 1204.84 °C) was 3.03% and 4%, respectively, higher than diesel fuel (56.4 bar and 1160.42 °C). Peak NHRR and maximum RPR of ES100 (43.10 J/°CA and 4.8 bar/°CA) was 12.07% and 10.61%, respectively, lower than diesel fuel (49.02 J/°CA and 5.37 bar/°CA). Overall, microalgae E. sanguinea biodiesel/diesel fuel blend up to 40% (ES40) is recommended for regular use in diesel engines.

Life span of oil reservoirs: Examples from three old reef pools in Alberta, Canada

After reaching a plateau, the production of oil reservoirs starts to decline, which substantially determines their life expectancy. Declining production data from three 58- to 71-yr-old oil pools in Alberta, Canada, have been documented and analyzed to show and predict their life span. Two declining phases of oil production can be distinguished: a short 4–11-yr substantially declining phase and a long 23–35-yr gradually declining phase. Well-fitted power regressions of the two declining phases of the pools have been observed with high correlation coefficients of 0.95–0.99 and used to forecast future annual oil production for the next 30 yr, yielding projected life spans of at least 88 to 101 yr. These pools have been producing oil at high water cuts of greater than 0.9 for 30–38 yr, currently more than 0.980 and 0.996, but still have potential to continue to deliver for at least another 30 yr. Production data from two pools indicate that 11% of original oil in place and 16%–26% of cumulative oil output were produced at a high water cut of greater than 0.9. These observation results can be used to judge other similar reef oil pools’ future production potential. This study provides a physical example to test the Hubbert curve and implies that the Hubbert curve should provide only the minimum future ultimate recoveries and the shortest future production times.

Re-assessing the Design Needs of Trans-Radial Amputees in Product Design Innovation

The previous study on design for disabled people has indicates that product development for trans-radial amputees should integrate designer’s reflection in identifying significant variables such as the real needs of their users, functionality, ergonomic aspect, and aesthetic. Hence, this paper intends to re-assess the design needs of trans-radial amputees through an observation study with 15 trans-radial amputees (right side). The observation aims to understand the difficulties that occurred in the daily activities of amputees, in their home situation without the help of prosthesis. The result of the study suggests the amputees’ main struggle in their daily activities; preparing meals and eating independently. Therefore, a few design criteria have been proposed, and the prototype design was successfully developed as a proposal for potential future development and production. It is hoped the outcome of this research help to surpass the kind of device constrained to help amputees preparing meals and eating independently.

Hva ligger i uttrykket «særskilt gransking»? Innsamling av data, forskning og finansiering i henhold til kulturminneloven § 10

What do we mean by the term “special investigation”? Collection of data, research and funding in accordancewith the Cultural Heritage Act, § 10.Section 10 of the Cultural Heritage Act stipulates that expenses for special investigation of protected culturalmonuments shall be covered by the developer. In today’s practice, the term "special investigation" includes collectionof archaeological data, but not further research related to the same data. Expenses for data collection will thusbe paid for by the developer, while expenses for further research will be covered by the institution responsible forthe “special investigation”: The University and Maritime Museums and The Norwegian Institute for Cultural heritageResearch (NIKU). This implies a notion that collecting data qualitatively differs from research.However, it is not possible to see data collection as detached from the research process. In this paper, we arguethat this was not the intention behind the term “special investigation” in the first place. The epistemological dividebetween collection of data and research emerged as a result of a politically initiated, functional divide between culturalheritage management on one hand, and archaeological research on the other.We argue that “special investigation” can and should be re-interpreted in order to establish a practice recognizingcollection of data as a natural and inextricably integrated part of the research process. We believe that this does notnecessarily have to be very expensive. At the same time, it opens for a significant potential for future archaeologicalknowledge production.

Temporal and spatial availability of cereal straw in Germany\u2014Case study: Biomethane for the transport sector

BackgroundBy 2030, the German transport sector needs to achieve additional greenhouse gas savings of 67 million tonnes CO2-eq. and further progress requires swiftly implementable solutions. The fermentation of cereal straw is a promising option. Returning the digestate to the farmland can close agricultural cycles while simultaneously producing biomethane. The world's first large-scale, mono-digestion plant for straw is operational since 2014. The temporal and spatial biomass availability is a key issue when replicating this concept. No detailed calculations on this subject are available, and the strategic relevance of biomethane from straw in the transport sector cannot be sufficiently evaluated.MethodsTo assess the balance of straw supply and use, a total of 30 data sets are combined, taking into account the cultivation of the five most important cereal types and the straw required for ten animal species, two special crops and 12 industrial uses. The data are managed at district level and presented for the years 2010 to 2018. In combination with high-resolution geodata, the results are linked to actual arable fields, and the availability of straw throughout the country is evaluated using a GIS.ResultsDuring the analysis period and based on the assumption that in case of fermentation up to 70% of the straw can be utilised, the mobilisable technical biomass potential for future biomethane production is between 13.9–21.5 Tg fm a−1. The annual potential fluctuates considerably due to weather anomalies. The all-time maximum in 2014 and the minimum for the last 26 years in 2018 are separated by just 4 years and a difference of 7.6 Tg fm. However, large parts of the potential are concentrated only in a few regions and biomethane from straw could provide 57–145 PJ of a low-emission fuel, saving 3–12 Tg CO2-eq. in case of full exploitation.ConclusionDespite the strong fluctuations and high uncertainties, the potential is sufficient to supply numerous plants and to produce relevant quantities of biomethane even in weak years. To unlock the potential, the outcomes should be evaluated and discussed further with stakeholders in the identified priority regions.

Environmental impacts of existing and future aquaculture production: Comparison of technologies and feed options in Singapore

In a context of global population growth and increased food demand, the development of the aquaculture industry has become essential, and aquaculture development policies have flourished. However, aquaculture is associated with various environmental impacts, such as eutrophication or climate change. It is therefore important to assess the environmental sustainability of aquaculture development, for example through the use of life cycle assessment (LCA). Yet, there is limited application of LCA to aquaculture technologies in Asian countries, where most aquaculture growth is taking place, and none of them has assessed environmental impacts of both current and future aquaculture systems. Here, we took Singapore as an example of country, which has recently developed aquaculture development strategies, and we performed a comparative LCA of eight Singaporean aquaculture production systems, thus covering all relevant existing and potential future production technologies. To do so, we built comprehensive life cycle inventories (LCI) of 8 categories of aquaculture production for four species groups in Singapore, for both 2017 and 2040. Two options of feed evolution were assessed in 2040: increasing the part of fishmeal and fish oil (FMFO) produced from trimmings and replacing FMFO by insect-based meal and algal oil. We assessed 11 environmental impact categories, including net primary production use. Overall, per unit of edible seafood produced, the production of marine fishes in sea cages near the shore and in recirculating aquaculture systems were found to be the most attractive options to limit the environmental impacts while increasing seafood production in Singapore. Freshwater fishes produced in concrete ponds were found to have the lowest impact indicator scores per ton of edible seafood produced, but these results were highly sensitive to methodological choices and it was deemed constrained by limited potential to increase its production capacity in the future. Increasing the part of FMFO produced from trimmings is found to have more environmental benefits than insect-based meal. However, the uncertainty concerning the future technologies is high, particularly for anticipating future technologies. Further research is therefore needed to refine the assessment of the potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture production systems, including focusing on novel technologies and new feed options specifically adapted to each country. Meanwhile, we recommend analysts to take inspiration from and build on the detailed LCIs developed in the current study to support assessments of aquaculture systems in other underresearched Asian countries.

Effects of Drought and Heat on Photosynthetic Performance, Water Use and Yield of Two Selected Fiber Hemp Cultivars at a Poor-Soil Site in Brandenburg (Germany)

Hemp currently regains certain importance as fiber, oil and medical crop not least because of its modest requirements of biocides, fertilizer and water. During recent years, crops were exposed to a combination of drought and heat, even in northern Central-Europe. Dynamic responses of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to these stresses and their persistent effects had been studied, if at all, in controlled environment experiments. Comprehensive field studies on diurnal and long-term net photosynthesis and gas exchange, and yield properties of hemp during a drought prone, high-temperature season in northern Central-Europe are obviously missing. Thus, in whole season field trails, the essential actual physiological (rates of net photosynthesis and transpiration, stomatal conductance, water use efficiencies, ambient and internal CO2 concentrations) and the yield performance of modern high-yielding multi-purpose hemp cultivars, ‘Ivory’ and ‘Santhica 27’, were evaluated under extreme environmental conditions and highly limited soil water supply. This provides comprehensive information on the usability of these cultivars under potential future harsh production conditions. Plants of both cultivars differentially cope with the prevailing climatic and soil water conditions. While ‘Ivory’ plants developed high rates of CO2 gain and established large leaf area per plant in the mid-season, those of ‘Santhica 27’ utilized lower CO2 uptake rates at lower leaf area per plant most time. This and the higher germination success of ‘Santhica 27’ resulted in nearly twice the yield compared to ‘Ivory’. Although stomatal control of CO2 gain was pronounced in both cultivars, higher stomatal limitations in ‘Ivory’ plants resulted in higher overall intrinsic water use efficiency. Cultivation of both hemp cultivars with only basic irrigation during seed germination was successful and without large effects on yield and quality. This was valid even under extremely hot and dry climatic conditions in northern Central Europe.

Analysis of passivation property using thin Al2O3 layer and simulation for realization of high-efficiency TOPCon cell

Conventional p–n junction solar cells exhibit good thermal stability but poor carrier selectivity. The main aim of this study was to achieve improved passivation along with carrier-selective contact for a solar cell having a tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) structure. To this end, we attempted to optimize the polysilicon (poly-Si) layer deposited on an ultrathin (~1.3 nm) SiO2 tunnel oxide layer to achieve high carrier lifetime and low recombination. We observed the passivation properties under varied thicknesses of the poly-Si layer and the phosphine (PH3) gas flow rate at three different annealing temperatures. Our experimental approach was able to achieve the best passivation properties by use of a moderately thin poly-Si layer. The poly-Si layer thickness was varied from 55 to 113 nm, and the PH3 flow rate was varied from 10 to 80 sccm at three different annealing temperatures in the range of 800–950 °C. The 113-nm-thick poly-Si layer was able to yield an implied open-circuit voltage (i-VOC) of 733 mV along with a very low recombination current density (J0) of 5.2 fA/cm2 at a PH3 flow rate of 40 sccm and post-deposition annealing temperature of 900 °C. A higher annealing temperature resulted in damage to the substrate, which in turn led to poor passivation; hence, optimization of this temperature was necessary. The passivation properties were further improved via the deposition of a thin (10-nm thick) Al2O3 layer on one side (i.e., front side) of the symmetric cell structure. This deposition caused a decrease in J0 to 2.5 fA/cm2 and an increase in i-VOC to 742 mV. These results are attributed to a decrease in the number of interfacial defects, promoted formation of a carrier collector layer, and good field-effect passivation. We performed a simulation study for the realization of a TOPCon solar cell and employed therein the experimentally determined parameters, which yielded highly promising cell results. Our proposed simple and cost-effective approach has high potential for future large-scale production of high-efficiency TOPCon solar cells.

Improved synthesis of long-chain alkyl glucosides catalyzed by an engineered β-glucosidase in organic solvents and ionic liquids.

To synthesize octyl β-D-glucopyranoside (OG) and decyl β-D-glucopyranoside (DG) in three non-aqueous reaction systems, namely organic solvents, ionic liquids and co-solvent mixtures, via reverse hydrolysis reactions catalyzed by the N189F dalcochinase mutant. The highest yield of OG (67mol%) was obtained in the reaction containing 0.5M glucose, 3 unit ml-1 enzyme in 20% (v/v) octanol and 70% (v/v) [BMIm][PF6] at 30°C. On the other hand, the highest yield of DG (64mol%) was obtained in the reaction containing 0.5M glucose, 3 unit ml-1 enzyme in 20% (v/v) decanol, 20% (v/v) acetone and 50% (v/v) [BMIm][PF6] at 30°C. The identities of OG and DG products were confirmed by HRMS and NMR. This is the first report of enzymatic synthesis of OG and DG via reverse hydrolysis reactions in ionic liquids and co-solvent mixtures. The N189F dalcochinase mutant and the non-aqueous reaction systems described here show great potential for future commercial production of long-chain alkyl glucosides.

Geothermal potential of Harrat Rahat, Northern Arabian Shield: geological constraints

Arabian Shield offers a strong potential for geothermal energy. However, only a limited amount of exploration effort has taken place. Harrat Rahat is a recent volcanic area located along the Makkah-Madinah-Nafud volcanic line in western Saudi Arabia. This study is oriented to identify the geothermal potential of Harrat Rahat. The geologic data was collected and processed. In the current study, we focus on evaluating the potential sources of subsurface heat and groundwater. Subsurface heat is based on the age of erupted volcanoes and the expected volume of subsurface magma chambers. An analogy with an existing geothermal field in a similar setting as Mexico suggests that the faults and the coincident seismicity may be associated with higher permeability. It is concluded that Harrat Rahat is characterized by a good geothermal potential for future geothermal energy source production.

Differences in growth and physiological and metabolic responses among Canadian native and hybrid willows (Salix spp.) under salinity stress.

Globally, soil salinization is becoming increasingly prevalent, due to local hydrogeologic phenomena, climate change and anthropogenic activities. This has significantly curtailed current world food production and limits future production potential. In the prairie region of North America, sulfate salts, rather than sodium chloride, are often the predominant cause of soil degradation. In order to amend soil quality, revegetate salt-affected sites and recover economic loss associated with soil salinization, the establishment of short-rotation coppice plantations with willows (Salix spp.) has been suggested as a possible solution. To screen for the best candidates for such an application, 20 hybrid and 16 native willow genotypes were treated with three different salt conditions for 3 months. The treatments were designed to reflect the salt composition and concentrations on North American prairies. Under moderate salinity treatment (7dSm-1), hybrid willows had better growth, as they established quickly while managing salt transport and mineral nutrition balance. However, native willows showed higher potential for long-term survival under severe salinity treatment (14dSm-1), showing a lower sodium:potassium ratio in roots and better photosynthetic performance. Two native willow genotypes with high osmotic and salinity tolerance indices, specifically LAR-10 and MJW-9, are expected to show superior potential for remediating salt-affected sites. In addition, we observed significantly higher sulfate/sulfur concentrations in both leaf and root tissues in response to the severe salinity treatment, shedding light on the effect of sulfate salinity on sulfate uptake, and potentially sulfur metabolism in plants.

What every practitioner should know about calf barn ventilation

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is financially significant to a dairy operation due to treatment costs, veterinary costs, loss of replacements, and reduced future production potential. High air bacterial counts have been shown to increase incidence of respiratory disease. Positive pressure tube ventilation systems aim to reduce air bacterial counts and noxious agents by driving fresh, outside air to the microenvironment of the calf. It is important for dairy practitioners to understand the basics of these systems so that they can make recommendations or troubleshoot problems.

Analysis of Suitable Farm Size for Fattening Pon Yang Kham Cattle

Pon Yang Kham Livestock Cooperative Limited (PYK Coop) is a local business organisation located in Sakon Nakhon province, Thailand. It has an essential economic role in assisting farmers and the community by creating a fair income distribution. However, PYK Coop has been facing problems from an oversupply of fattening cattle and the numbers involved in cattle production. This research investigated the costs and returns of production and the suitable farm size for beef cattle production to supply PYK Coop. The primary data were collected from 409 farmers in the cooperative using a questionnaire. The costs and returns of production were analysed and classified by the size of the farm to determine the most appropriate farm size for investment.
 
 The results revealed that the average number of cattle for individual farmers was 10.10 consisting of 3.50 bulls and cows, 2.64 calves and growing cattle, and 3.50 feedlot cattle. The cost of cattle production was divided into variable and fixed costs, which ranged annually between THB 17,279.13 and THB 300,185.88. The total annual income was THB 274,836.43. The annual net return of production (total revenue minus cost) was THB 25,984.81, while the annual net return of production per head of cattle was THB 25,984.81. The optimal farm size for beef cattle for the cooperative was a medium-sized farm.
 
 Overall, the results suggested that PYK Coop should encourage farmers to raise fattening cattle as a part-time occupation and aim to have no more than 10 head of cattle per farm. In doing so, PYK Coop should adjust the slaughter quota in accord with the number of beef cattle supplied by the farmers and should increase distribution channels to accommodate future production potential.

Fossil Fuels Environmental Challenges and the Role of Solar Photovoltaic Technology Advances in Fast Tracking Hybrid Renewable Energy System

The rise in global urbanization comes with sustainable development challenges, especially in lower-middle-income countries. In response to these urbanization and energy challenges, this study focuses on the roles of energy materials (EMs) advances on community-scale hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES). The study proposes the integration of energy material (EM) RD emits the least CO2 to the global CO2 emissions and yet endangered by climate change challenges and air pollution diseases. The study includes global responses to energy challenges, such as increase alternative energies share, with special attention to solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation technologies; policy framework; HRES and effects of PV materials advances on HRES. This study is of the view that a further breakthrough in the production of low-cost flexible thin film PV modules will facilitate energy trilemma accomplishment. The exploitation of the attributes of atomic layer deposition in manufacturing of thin film is seen as a potential future production technique, suitable for efficient flexible thin-film PV module production.

Financing the Next Generations of Innovation: New Dimensions in the Private Equity Model

It is widely acknowledged that, for firms to grow, they need to regularly introduce new generations of innovation; however, this is rarely addressed in the finance or private equity literature. If the private equity investment class is structured based on the business cycle, little is known about how it fosters firms’ capacity to regenerate. This leads to the question: How can private equity support firms’ ability to repeatedly innovate? Building on the literature in innovation management and design theory, we propose complementing private equity models with new dimensions: the design of potential future products and their expected value. This model is used to analyze in-depth a longitudinal case provided by a French investment fund. We show that it is far better suited to certain investment strategies than are classical models. Among other important implications, we suggest that private equity must not only provide seed, venture, or buyout capital, but also support firms’ innovation portfolio regeneration. JEL Codes: G320, O32

What Are We Really Good At? Product Strategy with Uncertain Capabilities

Firms often learn about their own capabilities through their products’ successes and failures. This paper explores the interaction between learning about capabilities and product strategy in a formal model. We consider a firm that can launch a sequence of products, where each product’s success probability depends on the fit between the firm’s capabilities and the product. A successful new product always causes the firm to become more optimistic about the capability most relevant for that product; however, it can also cause the firm to become less optimistic about some of its other capabilities, including capabilities the new product does not use. The firm’s optimal forward-looking product strategy accounts for short-run expected profits as well as for the information value of learning for future decisions. We find that a product sharing few or even no capabilities with potential future products can have a greater information value than a product that shares more capabilities with future products and that learning about capabilities can affect the optimal sequence of product launch decisions. Data and the online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2017.1068 .

Modeling India’s Coal Production with a Negatively Skewed Curve-Fitting Model

India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.