Potential For Contagion Research Articles

Artificial Intelligence – a Double-Edged Sword. Organized Crime`s AI vs Law Enforcement`s AI

Abstract Organized crime has acquired new values in the context of the geopolitical, social and economic transformations that the states are currently facing, expanding their ramifications at the international level. Conflicts often create opportunities that lead to the increasing of the organized crime, amplifying the threat that criminal groups can pose to domestic security. The heightened dynamics of the international security environment and, in particular, the instability with the potential for contagion manifested in the Eastern neighborhood and in the Middle East, potentiates the risks posed by organized crime. With the increase in technological development, especially based on Artificial Intelligence, organized crime has become one of the world’s most pressing issues, with a large number of countries having been affected. This research deals with the role of digital technologies implemented through cyberspace in prevention, detecting and combating organized crime. In addition, the research found that the rate of illegal activity has increased due to the global accessibility that the Internet has provided, especially AI, posing great risks to the public and increasing the rate of organised crimes. Combating organized crime has become an important political priority for many governments around the world, and any future success in eliminating criminal groups in its various forms will depend on the extent to which governments and relevant organizations are prepared to develop digital technologies based on artificial intelligence and use them to combat and prevent illegal activity.

ABORDAGEM DIAGNÓSTICO DAS DOENÇAS EXANTEMÁTICAS DA INFÂNCIA

Childhood involvement due to exanthematous pathologies is one of the most common conditions in pediatric practice, frequently posing diagnostic challenges. Several conditions can lead to rash, with infectious causes being responsible for more than 70% of episodes. Most exanthemas are self-limited, however the correct identification of the etiology has clinical relevance due to the severity and deterioration of the prognosis in case of delay in diagnosis in certain cases, and for public health, considering the potential for contagion of infectious causes. The clinical nonspecificity of exanthematous diseases requires a systematic approach for early diagnosis that includes the collection of a complete anamnesis and a broad and careful physical examination. These are the main instruments for diagnostic elucidation, also allowing guidance for laboratory diagnostic conduct. This study aims to expose the main clinical-epidemiological characteristics of exanthemas, emphasizing that anamnesis and physical examination are the main tools to aid in the differential diagnosis and consequent management of patients affected by exanthematous disease in childhood.

COVID-19: uma doença que abalou a educação básica e superior

The covid-19 disease, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, forced the transformation of face-to-face to virtual teaching in educational institutions around the world. This is because this virus has a high potential for contagion and can cause very serious infection. This problem was associated with the lack of any effective treatment or vaccine to combat the virus and, therefore, the solution was social isolation, which in education, brought the remote mode of teaching to continue the teaching-learning process. The purpose of this review is to provide the reader with an overview of the impacts of the covid-19 pandemic on basic and higher education. Of course, making use of distance education was the best way out to not cancel the educational process for a time, until then, indefinitely, but some weaknesses and consequences emerged. For example, unequal access to an Internet connection, which results in an unequal distribution of resources and strategies, mainly affecting low-income or more vulnerable people. This crisis offers an unprecedented opportunity for the State to manage by planning effective and safe ways to act in atypical and calamitous situations.

Integração ensino e serviço no contexto da pandemia de COVID-19: relato de experiência da práxis dos residentes sanitaristas na vigilância epidemiológica

Introdução: Inicialmente identificada na cidade de Wuhan, na China em 2019, a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) demonstrou-se com um alto poder de disseminação. Devido à potencialidade de contágio, a Organização Mundial da Saúde recomendou aos países medidas de isolamento para evitar aglomerações e diminuir a incidência de casos. Vitória de Santo Antão, município localizado próximo à Região Metropolitana de Recife, neste contexto requereu imprescindivelmente uma atuação da vigilância epidemiológica para elaborar ações e estratégias de contingência nesse cenário sanitário pandêmico. Objetivo: Relatar a experiência dos residentes sanitaristas na atuação no setor da vigilância epidemiológica durante o enfrentamento da pandemia de COVID-19. Método: Relato de experiência realizado pelos residentes sanitaristas do Programa de Residência Multiprofissional de Interiorização de Atenção à Saúde para fortalecimento da vigilância epidemiológica no enfrentamento da pandemia no município de Vitória de Santo Antão. Resultados: Foram criados dois formulários via Google Forms com o objetivo de registrar e acompanhar os casos de síndrome gripal, síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) e COVID-19 no município. Foi adotada pelo setor de vigilância em saúde a criação de boletins epidemiológicos diários para divulgação dos dados, apresentando as informações mais pertinentes obtidas a partir do monitoramento dos casos de síndrome gripal, SRAG e COVID-19 da população local, sempre comparando com o cenário estadual e federal. Conclusões: O cenário de pandemia suscitou uma readequação das atividades dos residentes, ao imprimir sobre esses o desafio de se adequar a um novo contexto epidemiológico, gerando um olhar sobre as necessidades dos territórios e do seu processo de aprendizagem e fortalecendo as ações de vigilância durante o cenário de pandemia.

INTERBANK LINKAGES AND CONTAGION RISK IN THE PORTUGUESE BANKING SYSTEM

Interbank money markets can be a channel through which problems in one institution can spread to the remaining ones. We characterize the Portuguese overnight interbank money market between 1999 and 2009 and analyze its inherent potential for contagion, based on bilateral interbank exposures. We conclude that: (i) the Portuguese overnight interbank money market has a multiple money center structure; (ii) although unlikely, the failure of one institution can have contagion effects, pushing others into failure; (iii) however, even under the most extreme assumptions, banks that fail by contagion represent less than 10% of the total banking systems assets.

Pathophysiology of worsening lung function in COVID-19

Introduction: The new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has emerged as the main threats to global health since December 2019. Addressing part of the pulmonary pathophysiology involved in the disease is important to help interested health professionals better understand the different aspects of this complex pathology. Aim: This article aims to present part of the pathophysiological process involved in pulmonary complications associated with Covid-19. Methods: An integrative literature review was carried out, with articles published between 2019 and 2020, in the Google and PubMed databases, using the following search terms: coronavirus, COVID-19, pulmonary complications, pneumonia. Results: 6 articles were included, addressing the proposed theme. Conclusion: The individual's infection with COVID-19 has the potential to cause significant changes in ventilatory capacity, leading to diffuse pulmonary impairment and worsening gas exchange. Further studies are needed to clarify the pathophysiology of this complex disease with a high potential for contagion, morbidity and mortality.Keywords: coronavirus infections, communicable diseases, pneumonia. Â

Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in Central Europe from the Viewpoint of Extreme Value Theory

This paper examines contagion in the foreign exchange markets of three Central European countries and the euro area. Contagion is viewed as the occurrence of extreme events taking place in different countries simultaneously and is assessed with a measure of asymptotic tail dependence among the studied distributions. Currency crisis contagion is one strand of this research. However, the main aim of the paper is to examine the potential of bubble contagion. To this end the representative exchange rates are linked to their fundamentals using a cointegration approach. Given the long-time range required by cointegration testing, the variables are first tested for unit roots with structural breaks, whose existence is supported by these tests. In the sequel, the extreme values of the differences between actual daily exchange rates and their monthly equilibrium values determine the episodes associated with large departures from equilibrium. Using tools from Extreme Value Theory, we analyse the transmission of both standard crisis and bubble formation events in the examined currency markets. The results reveal a significant potential for contagion in the currency markets of Central Europe.

Ghosts of the Gulag in the Eveny world of the dead

The article explores the legacy of the Gulag in Northeast Siberia by providing a detailed discussion of the space of the village built on the former site of the concentration camp haunted by the unhappy ghosts of former prisoners. Since, in local cosmology the latter are given the status of malevolent spirits – arinkael –, they create the context in which the memory of the Gulag is reproduced locally through the repetitive encounters of ghosts in the village buildings. The account illustrates that ghosts of the former violently killed Gulag prisoners charged with affective potential for contagion expand and modify the status of arinkael within the Eveny cosmology. This contributes to the process of “world-making”, in which the local population and Gulag ghosts are mutually expanding Eveny cosmology while simultaneously reactivating the memories about the Gulag.

Contagion risk in the Czech financial system: A network analysis and simulation approach

This paper examines the potential for contagion within the Czech banking system via the channel of interbank exposures of domestic banks, enriched by a liquidity channel and an asset price channel, over the period March 2007 to June 2012. A computational model is used to assess the resilience of the Czech banking system to interbank contagion, taking into account the size and structure of interbank exposures as well as balance sheet and regulatory characteristics of individual banks in the network. The simulation results suggest that the potential for contagion due to credit losses on interbank exposures was rather limited. Even after the introduction of a liquidity condition into the simulations, the average contagion was below 3.8% of the remaining banking sector assets, with the exception of the period from December 2007 to September 2008. Activation of the asset price channel further increases the losses due to interbank contagion, showing that the liquidity of government bonds would be essential for the stability of Czech banks in stress situations. Finally, the simulation results for both idiosyncratic and multiple bank failure shocks suggest that the potential for contagion in the Czech banking system has decreased since the onset of the global financial crisis.

Prioritisation of wildlife pathogens to be targeted in European surveillance programmes: Expert-based risk analysis focus on ruminants

This study attempted to develop a list of priority pathogens. It is part of a European Union (EU) project dedicated to the surveillance of emerging or re-emerging pathogens of wildlife. Partners of the consortium established an initial list of 138 pathogens of concern, which was reduced to a smaller list of 65 pathogens likely to affect ruminants (i.e., the most costly animal group in the EU over the last 15 years). These 65 pathogens underwent a two-step, expert-based risk analysis: 92 experts graded them with respect to their global importance for animal welfare, species conservation, trade/economic impacts and public health. In step 2, the top 15 pathogens from step 1 were assessed by 69 experts considering seven weighted epidemiological criteria (pathogen variability, host specificity, potential for contagion, speed of spread, presence in Europe, difficulty of surveillance in wildlife and persistence in the environment) for which four options were possible. The responses concerned a wide geographic coverage. The resulting top-list pathogens were ranked as follows: 1. Salmonella enterica, 2. Coxiella burnetii, 3. foot-and-mouth disease virus, 4. Mycobacterium bovis, 5. bluetongue virus, and 6. European tick-borne encephalitis virus. The influence of the characteristics of the respondents, the importance of the levels of uncertainty/variability and the implication of the results are discussed. This work highlights the relevance of developing such lists for preparedness.

Clearinghouses as credit regulators before the fed?

Clearinghouses were private organizations that not only had the power to audit member banks’ balance sheets and levy fines, but also provided emergency liquidity during large-scale financial panics. This paper studies how clearinghouses affected bank composition and solvency during stable periods as well as panics. An annual database of all national bank balance sheets from 1865 to 1914 indicates that national banks grew larger after the creation of a clearinghouse. Relative to the rise in assets, banks reduced their cash reserves and individual deposits and increased their loans, circulation, and interbank deposits. The analysis also shows that while clearinghouse members were less likely to fail during panics, they were more likely to fail in other periods, particularly those in non-financial centers. In this way, clearinghouses seem to have freed up additional resources during stable periods and delayed bank failures until the potential for contagion was removed.

Endogenous Derivative Networks

This paper proposes a network formation model of an OTC derivatives market where both prices and quantities are bilaterally negotiated. The key feature of the framework is to endogenize the network of exposures, the gross and net notional amounts traded and the collateral delivered through initial and variation margins, as a function of idiosyncratic counterparty risk and regulatory collateral and clearing requirements. Using the framework, we investigate numerically the size of the derivatives network, the aggregate collateral demand and the pricing of the contracts under the following schemes: (i) various levels of collateralization for uncleared transactions, (ii) rehypothecation of received collateral and (iii) clearing through a central clearing party (CCP). Overall results suggest that dynamic effects due to the endogeneity of the derivative network to the collateralization and clearing requirements have sizeable consequences on both contract volumes and prices. Intermediary trading and market liquidity are reduced by higher collateralization requirements and enhanced by rehypothecation, while the potential for contagion is reduced. Not accounting for dynamic effects in current market conditions may lead to over-estimate collateral demand induced by mandatory central clearing by up to 22%.

Network Structure and Systemic Risk in Banking Systems

We present a quantitative methodology for analyzing the potential for contagion and systemic risk in a network of interlinked financial institutions, using a metric for the systemic importance of institutions: the Contagion Index. We apply this methodology to a data set of mutual exposures and capital levels of financial institutions in Brazil in 2007 and 2008, and analyze the role of balance sheet size and network structure in each institution's contribution to systemic risk. Our results emphasize the contribution of heterogeneity in network structure and concentration of counterparty exposures to a given institution in explaining its systemic importance. These observations plead for capital requirements which depend on exposures, rather than aggregate balance sheet size, and which target systemically important institutions.

Microsporum audouiniitinea capitis in a Swiss school: assessment and management of patients and asymptomatic carriers

We report three cases involving 7- to 8-year-old children from a Swiss school who had refractory tinea capitis due to an unusual strain of Microsporum audouinii which perforates hair in vitro. The patients showed no response to modern oral antifungal drugs like terbinafine and fluconazole. After switching to oral griseofulvin, two of the patients had a complete recovery, while the third was cured after the introduction of oral itraconazole. Given the high potential for contagion of this anthropophilic dermatophyte, all family members and three entire school classes were screened using the 'toothbrush technique'. Three family members and five class-mates were found to be asymptomatic carriers of M. audouinii and were consequently treated to avoid further transmission or reinfection of the treated patients. This is the first report of an outbreak of M. audouinii in Switzerland and underlines the importance of screening all contacts of patients with M. audouinii tinea capitis. Further, the effectiveness of griseofulvin in Microsporum tinea capitis has been corroborated, while newer antimycotic drugs like fluconazole or terbinafine failed.

Contamination fear and effects of disgust on distress in a public restroom.

The present study examined the effect of a disgust mood induction on self-reported distress during exposure to 5 stimuli with increasing potential for contagion in a public restroom among contamination fearful individuals. Participants were 36 adults identified as high in contamination fear (HCF) and 47 adults identified as low in contamination fear (LCF) who were randomly assigned to either a disgust or neutral emotion induction condition. Consistent with predictions, HCF participants exhibited significantly more distress than LCF participants during exposure to the sources of contagion in the restroom. However, this main effect was moderated by type of mood induction and task difficulty. Specifically, significant differences in distress between HCF and LCF participants emerged only for stimuli with low potential for contagion (i.e., touching the inside of the bathroom sink) in the disgust condition, whereas such group differences in distress emerged only for stimuli with a relatively high potential for contagion (i.e., touching the inside of the bathroom toilet) in the neutral condition. The implications of these findings for better understanding the functional role of disgust in contamination fear are discussed.

Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion

This paper assesses the potential for contagion in the Swiss interbank market using new data on bilateral bank exposures as well as on credit lines. A simulation approach is applied to assess the banking system's inherent instability. Moreover, the spill-over effects of a simulated default situation in the interbank market on the liquidity and solvency of banks are measured. The main findings are, first, that there is a substantial potential for contagion. Second, the exposure as well as the credit line contagion channel are relevant for Switzerland. Third, a lender of last resort intervention could reduce spill-over effects remarkably. Finally, the structure of the interbank market has considerable impact on its resilience against spill-over effects: Centralized markets are more prone to contagion than homogenous ones.