Potential Flood Research Articles

Teknologi Deteksi Dini Banjir Daerah Aliran Sungai menggunakan Heltec Wifi LoRa 32 V2

In Indonesia there are often natural disasters, one of which is flooding. Flooding is a natural disaster that is marked by the overflowing of river water irrigation channels in urban areas, one is the river Irrigation that exists at the Technokrat University of Indonesia. Therefore, the study aims to develop a flood early detection tool using LoRa (Long Range) technology to monitor potential flooding in Kalibalau, Indonesian Technocratic University, Bandar Lampung. The research method involves installing an ultrasonic sensor in the Kalibalau River and connecting it to the Heltec Wifi LoRa 32 V2 microcontroller. Test results show that the LoRa transmitter and receiver operate as planned. This tool does not require an internet connection because it uses the Heltec Wifi LoRa 32 V2. The status of the river is categorized into four: Safe, Alert 1, Alert 2, and Danger, with appropriate warnings. The test showed a delay of 5 seconds on the water height reading. At safe (water height 44 cm), the buzzer does not sound. At morning 1 (water altitude 82 cm), it sounds once with a 1 minute delay. The device has a communication capacity of up to 400 meters. Thus, the tool is effective in monitoring the Kalibalau river and giving early warning of potential floods. This research has contributed to the development of flood monitoring technology to increase public alertness and safety in flood-prone areas

Towards the hydrological effects of land use change in karst area, a case study in Lijiang River Basin, China

With economic and social development, the inevitable conflict between growing populations and land use change has become increasingly prominent. In karst areas, such as the Lijiang River Basin (LRB) in South China, land use has undergone rapid and intense changes over the past few decades due to urbanization and agricultural development. Assessing the hydrological effects of future land use change scenarios in karst areas is essential for estimating potential flood risks. In this study, we constructed hydrological models for the LRB based on a widely used hydrological model (SWAT, Soil and Water Assessment Tool), analyzed the runoff coefficient (Rc) at event scale, and evaluated the hydrological effects under future land use scenarios in 2100 based on five shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that the simulated streamflow effectively replicated the hydrographs of the LRB. The model exhibited good performance, as evidenced by daily streamflow simulation with NSE greater than 0.65 and PBIAS within the range of ± 15 %. This demonstrates the applicability of SWAT in karst areas. The analysis of storm events revealed that severe storms in the LRB mainly took place between April and July and in November, with relatively long durations and high Rc values. Under all five SSP-based future land use scenarios, it is predicted that flood risk will increase in the LRB. Notably, the severity of flood events during the dry season is expected to escalate, with Rc potentially increasing by up to 16 %. To address environmental degradation and achieve sustainable development, it is imperative to adopt appropriate environment-friendly land use practices and implement effective land management strategies.

Potential Dam Breach Flood Assessment with the 2D Diffusion and Full Dynamic Wave Equations Using a Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System

Dam breaches have catastrophic consequences, causing severe property damage, life loss, and environmental impact. The potential dam breach downstream flooding of the Kulekhani reservoir, Nepal, was studied using a 2D Diffusion Wave Equation (DWE) and Full Dynamic Wave Equation (FDWE) through an open-source solver, Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The suitable dam breach model was identified based on the dam geometry and sixteen historical dam failure cases. The simulated downstream peak was tested with an empirical relation, considering reservoir volume and duration of failure. Model comparisons through the flood plain mapping of water depth, flow velocity, flood intensity as per guidelines of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), and arrival time were carried out for flood hazard assessment. FDWE was able to capture the physical flow phenomena in the river bend resulting in higher flow velocity at the outer bend, lower velocity at the inner bend, and formation of eddies due to the application of the turbulence model, considering possible momentum losses, whereas DWE was unable to capture these effects due to a simplified momentum equation. The total area of flood extension was found to be increased by 30% using FDWE than the DWE due to higher water surface elevation. Most of the towns along the Kulekhani River were classified as “Very High” intensity flood regions according to ASCE, due to the V-shape valley. The peak time difference at the Bagmati River confluence was evaluated between the models. This plays an important role in decision-making for the selection of the flood model to make a safe evacuation plan. The application of FDWE was found to be suitable for the rapidly varying unsteady flow in the steep meandering river.

Comprehensive investigation of flood-resilient neighborhoods: the case of Adama City, Ethiopia

Adama is the second most populous city in Ethiopia and experiences frequent flash floods that have a detrimental impact on the community’s livelihood. To this effect, this study emphasizes the significance of conducting a comprehensive investigation to identify flood-resilient neighborhoods in Adama City. By considering the existing spatial pattern and morphology that are resilient to urban flooding, the city can enhance its flood management strategies in the future. The findings of this study demonstrate varying levels of spatial connectivity within Adama City. Detailed examination of two neighborhoods identified through space syntax analysis with high and low spatial connectivity revealed important insights into flood resilience. The high-connective neighborhoods exhibited well-interconnected street systems with manageable street spacing, facilitating efficient runoff flow and effective flood management during flooding events. These neighborhoods also had shorter block sizes with frequent intersections, promoting better water drainage and reducing the risk of flooding during heavy rain events. The grid pattern observed in these areas allowed for efficient water runoff through multiple drainage paths, including the street surfaces. On the contrary, neighborhoods with low spatial connectivity exacerbated urban flooding. The lack of connectivity and abundance of dead-end streets posed challenges for flood evacuation during emergencies. Irregular block arrangements disrupted the natural drainage system, aggravating the potential for urban flooding. These findings have implications for other flood-prone areas of neighborhoods in Adama City and similar urban areas in the global south on how human settlements are arranged spatially to mitigate urban flood vulnerability.

“Flood inundation mapping of upstream region in the Adyar River basin: Integrating hydrologic engineering centre's river analysis system (HEC-RAS) approach with groundwater considerations”

Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu, has grappled with recurrent devastating floods, notably in 2015 and 2021, originating from the upstream of the Adyar River basin. These events have profoundly impacted the city's growth sectors. The regions both upstream and downstream of the Adyar basin, covering Chennai and Chengalpattu districts, face increased vulnerability to severe riverine flooding due to rapid urbanization. The interplay of extensive urban development and river overflow during monsoon seasons has created conditions conducive to substantial flooding, necessitating the development of an effective flood model. This study utilizes digital elevation data and unit hydrograph analysis to estimate flood return probability water levels for various recurrence intervals, including the 10-year and 100-year events. Moreover, it investigates flood inundation, specifically in the Somangalam area, providing insights into the extent of water spread. To comprehensively address the flood dynamics, the study incorporates considerations for groundwater interactions. The overarching objective remains to identify the most vulnerable zones within the Adyar River region prone to flooding. Accurate identification of these vulnerable areas is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to devise proactive planning and early warning measures, enhancing disaster preparedness and resilience in the face of potential flood disasters. This approach aims to safeguard the well-being of Chennai's residents and promote sustainable development in the region.

Exploring the Impact of Future Land Uses on Flood Risks and Ecosystem Services, With Limited Data: Coupling a Cellular Automata Markov (CAM) Model, With Hydraulic and Spatial Valuation Models

Land use changes can majorly affect many parameters that are directly or indirectly interlinked to various human-environmental systems, including hydrological processes and flood risks. The knowledge of future land cover changes is crucial for better managing human-environmental interactions and addressing potential environmental challenges, such as floods. In this work, the impact of future land cover changes in flood inundation is assessed, using a case study in northeast Indiana, US. A Cellular Automata Markov (CAM) model is applied, combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Python, to predict land changes and provide future land cover maps, along with statistical validation measures. The land use map outputs are then used in a HEC-RAS hydraulic model, to test the different flooding impacts under a design storm, using the rain-on-grid routine. The results indicate that even slightly more urbanized and deforested areas can increase the potential flood extent. Furthermore, the impacts of these forecasted land cover changes are quantified in monetary terms, based on a spatial Ecosystem Services Valuation (ESV) model. The findings indicate that as certain land uses (mainly wetlands, followed by forests) give their place to build-up areas, barren land, or even agricultural lands, the ‘lost’ value due can reach 1.5 million USD in 2051. The novelty of this study lies in int integrated character, combining for the first time to our knowledge land cover forecast with hydrologic-hydraulic modelling and spatial ESV, showing thus the future changes, risks, and potential economic losses, respectively. This application uses the minimum necessary input data to perform the analyses, and all data and codes are publicly available, contributing thus to the transferability and reproducibility of the approach.

Potential Flood Hazard Mapping Based on GIS and Analytical Hierarchy Process

Flooding is one of the most common natural dangers occurring almost everywhere. Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) are common and effective tools for hydrological analysis assessment and hazard management. Using GIS and remote sensing techniques, this study aimed to identify flood hazard maps in the Diyala governorate with a higher vulnerability to floods. Nine influencing parameters were collected, including elevation, slope, distance from the road, distance from the river, rainfall, drainage density, land use and land cover, normalized vegetation index, and topographic wetness index. The collected data were processed using GIS software and then relative weights were estimated using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach to produce a flood map. According to the findings of this study, the largest zone, about 64% of the study area, faces moderate potential flood hazard, a very small area of less than 1% faces very high and very low potential flood dangers, and approximately 35% of the study area is subjected to high and low flood hazard.

Analysis of Compound Flooding in the Cakung Drain Area, DKI Jakarta Province

Cakung Drain is an artificial river located downstream of the Cakung and Buaran Rivers, established as part of Jakarta's flood control infrastructure. Administratively, the upper section of Cakung Drain is located in East Jakarta, while the lower section is in North Jakarta. The current capacity of Cakung Drain is insufficient to handle the flow during flood conditions, leading to persistent flooding in the area. Flood conditions downstream of Cakung Drain are exacerbated by the potential for Compound Flood, resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of two extreme conditions. Various initiatives to manage floods have been implemented in the Cakung Drain area. This study aims to evaluate the flood risk in the Cakung Drain area before and after the implementation of flood management structures, considering the impact of discharge and tidal conditions downstream influenced by waves and storm surges. Flood modelling is executed using HECRAS software employing both 1D and 2D approaches. The study's findings reveal that the flooded area under existing conditions spans 7.065 km2. Under design conditions, flooding persists with an area of 4.15 km², attributed to flood overflow in downstream areas where embankments have not been constructed.

The Prediction of Debris Flow Based on Eruption and Rainfall Event for River Infrastructure Mitigation: Study Case Opak River, Sleman Regency

Mount Merapi is a volcano active in Indonesia. The eruption that occurred in 2010 was a major eruption with a return period of 100 years. Dominant debris to the Opak – Gendol Watershed; the biggest debris flood occurred in 2010 – 2011. One of the disaster mitigations on the Opak River is the Sabo Dam infrastructure. Currently, in the upper reaches of the Opak River, there are 5 Sabo Dams. In 2022, 2 additional Sabo Dams were built, namely OP RRC4 and OP RRC3a. This study will be used modelling 2D HEC-RAS Non-Newtonian before the construction of 2 Sabo Dams and after the construction of 2 Sabo Dams with river geometry measured in 2020 and flood discharge as measured from rainfall triggering debris flow on 03 January 2011, from this rainfall a 6-hour rain distribution was carried out using the PSA coefficient to be input in the HEC-HMS, the hydrological parameters used on 03 January 2011, were used to calculate the Q100 flood discharge. The results of modelling at the observation point using the Q100 showed that the elevation of the debris flow after the presence of the new Sabo Dam series could be reduced by up to 47.21 %, Sabo Dam effectively reduces the rate of debris flow to reduce the potential debris flood.

Changes in Streamflow Statistics and Catchment Land Uses Across Select USGS Gages in Northwest and West‐central Arkansas

AbstractSince 1901, heavy rainfall events have increased in the United States in both intensity and frequency, and human population in the United States has increased, resulting in significant land use changes. Both trends contribute to an increase in observed flood magnitude and frequency. To determine if a relationship exists between land use/land cover and changing stream flows in northwest Arkansas, this study analyzed temporal changes in various flow statistics for 14 stream gages and compared the rates of change in flow statistics from gages on streams with watersheds that have varying land uses, i.e., urban, agricultural, and undeveloped. Mann‐Kendall analysis was used to determine statistically significant changes in flow statistics, which were then compared to National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) watershed land uses from 2001 and 2019. All analyzed gages had one or more flow statistics with at least a moderately significant increase, and all analyzed flow statistics showed at least moderately significant streamflow increases at two or more gages (P < 0.100). There were no decreases of any significance in any flow statistic at any gage. In general, urban land development did not happen on native prairies and forests but on previously agricultural land. Significant positive relationships were found between maximum yearly flow and 2019 urban land use, urban land use change from 2001 to 2019, and 2019 Human Development Index (HDI). A similar relationship was found to exist between yearly minimum flow and 2019 HDI. These results highlight the importance of considering the cost of potential stream bank erosion and flooding in future land use planning, permitting, and zoning.

Analysis of Surface Runoff and Remote Sensing Data to Identify Flood Potential in Simbang Sub-Watershed

Increased water runoff due to land use change phenomena has triggered flooding events. The objective is to identify flood potential in Simbang Sub-Watershed in Maros Regency using rational methods and remote sensing data. Potential flood hazards were analyzed using the weighting method with the parameters NDVI, MNDWI, NDSI, rainfall, and annual flow coefficient. The highest debit of runoff occurred in 2017, with a value of 113.36 m3/s, while the lowest occurred in 2019, with a value of 63.91 m3/s. The NDVI value is 0.37–1 with high vegetation covering an area of 3,089 ha, while the low-very low vegetation has value -0.03–0.25 with an area of 1,668 ha. The MNDWI value ranges from 0-0.33 with a moderate wetness level covering an area of 741 ha and an NDSI value ranging from -0.06–0.43 for bare land surrounding an area of 738 ha, which has an impact on reducing water catchment areas which can trigger an increase in surface water runoff discharge. The average rainfall is 2,965 mm/year, the area with low potential for flooding is 3,705 ha, and the area prone (moderate) to flooding is 1,450 ha. The rainfall factor is the main priority trigger for flood events with weight of 0.266, and the soil index is the lowest priority factor with weight of 0.145. Surface water runoff in the Simbang Sub-Watershed area makes a small contribution to the flood events that occurred in Maros Regency with an annual flow coefficient value of 0.23.

Modified geomorphic flood index (GFI) using land use parameter and effective rainfall ratio at Cikapundung River

To determine the flood inundation area requires hydrological data and measurements of river cross sections. Those data are very limited and expensive. The Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) can be used to identify the initial potential for inundation of an area. Until now, the GFI method only uses Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and the return period cannot be known. GFI is then modified by using topographic, rainfall and land use maps to determine the potential flood inundation for each return period. Based on the results of the GFI analysis with an n value of 0.31, the result of flood inundation is quite close to the hydraulic approach with a return period of 100 years. To find out the inundation of floods in other periods (2 years to 50 years), it is necessary to modify the GFI by entering the weight in the analysis of the flow accumulation. The results of the modified GFI flood inundation show that the smaller the return period, the lower the flood height and the reduced flood inundation area in the affected areas. Thus, the GFI approach is still good enough for initial estimates in determining flood inundation with quick analysis and lower costs.

Assessment of the Potential Flood Hazard of the Larbaâ Wadi, Rural Center of Sebt Boukellal, Taza, Morocco

Flood risk management often requires the use of geomorphological features to identify flood zones, and the use of hydraulic models to predict inundation dynamics and related impacts on the surrounding area. In this study, we used a hydraulic river simulation model to identify potential flood-prone zones on a small scale. It concentrated on a 2.5-kilometer section of the Larbaâ Wadi, which crosses the rural center of Sebt Boukellal. For estimating the peak discharge that occurs in the return periods of 10, 20, 50, and 100 years of the drainage area, we used the Rational method. Standard tables to estimate Manning’s coefficient and direct field measurements to feed the model. Model simulation has shown stability of the steady state, which witnesses the accuracy of the estimated and measured characteristics of the river system. During the calibration phase, we compared the model outputs to the observed floods and made adjustments to align the simulation with the field observations. Indeed, the 50-year flood remarkably matched the extent of the flood that occurred on September 27, 2000. The obtained results have shown that even for a 10year return period, the overflow affects properties within the floodplain. The 100-year flood exceeded the river’s capacity, causing water to spill onto the rural center’s streets and cultivated fields. The water level reached an elevation of 552.14 meters at Sebt Boukellal’s marketplace. These results were consistent with recent floods and confirm previous observations, indicating that the model precisely predicted the river’s behavior. The findings have shown that floods spanned large regions and suggested urgent intervention to protect lives and properties.

Morphometric Analysis for Sustainable River Management: A Case Study of Ciujung Watershed, Banten, Indonesia

Ciujung watershed is located in Banten province, Indonesia. The Ciujung watershed is one of the watersheds that have a significant area coverage, such as Serang, Lebak, and the eastern part of Pandeglang. These areas are developing both in terms of population growth and infrastructure. Therefore, a more in-depth study of the Ciujung watershed, namely morphometric studies, is needed to optimize the utilization of the river's renewable natural resources and mitigate potential flood hazards in the watershed area. The method used is remote sensing based on DEMNAS satellite data using QGis software. The parameters analyzed were watershed shape, watershed area, river branch ratio, and river density. The results show that the Ciujung watershed is divided into 14 sub-watersheds. In general, the sub-watersheds have a bird feather shape, and some are radial and parallel, which causes some research areas to be very at risk of flooding. From the condition of river branching, most areas are unaffected by deformation. A small part of the deformed area occurs in the middle area of the Ciujung watershed. This is interpreted to be related to tectonic activity. The drainage density shows that the Ciujung watershed is based on resistant rocks and materials, so it is easily eroded and causes siltation of the river in the downstream area, which can trigger flooding.

Urban Flood Mitigation by Implementing LIDs (Case Study: Bendung Watershed in Palembang City)

Urban areas continue to be affected by flooding, necessitating more sustainable and effective adaptation strategies and mitigation initiatives. This study investigates the potential flood reduction capability achieved through implementing various green infrastructures known as low-impact development (LID). The Bendung watershed, in the center of Palembang City, with a total area of 18.37 km2, is used as the study area to evaluate the performance of LID infrastructure in reducing flood parameters, including total runoff volume, peak runoff discharge, runoff coefficient, and flooding area. Five types of LID infrastructure were simulated, namely bio-retention cells, rain gardens, permeable pavements, rain barrels, and recharge wells. The flood simulations were performed using four design storms with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-year return periods. Hydrologic and hydraulic modeling and simulations were carried out using PCSWMM Professional 2D, and the results were integrated with ArcMap to map the flood inundation. The results of this study demonstrate that with only 9.81 percent of the area occupied by LIDs, a flood reduction of more than 30% can be achieved. In addition, implementing LIDs can help restore the watershed’s hydrological condition to its natural state, as indicated by the decrease in the runoff coefficient. Thus, implementing LIDs in a sustainable urban drainage system must be widely promoted in many urban areas, especially in developed countries like Indonesia. This study can be used as a reference for the local government and authorities to create policies and regulations to establish sustainable flood mitigation measures in Palembang City.

Prediction of Streamflow in River Basin-Using ANN

In addition to the flood level predictions, our system provides valuable insights into future rainfall patterns. With the data set we have gathered, we can determine the expected amount of rainfall in the upcoming months. By combining the flood level predictions with the rainfall data, we can better understand the overall flood risk and take proactive measures to mitigate its impact. Our system equips us with the necessary information to make informed decisions and enhance flood preparedness strategies. The main difference is that we focus on predicting flood levels using a combination of current water level data and real-time weather data. This allows us to have a more accurate understanding of potential flood events. Additionally, our paper also incorporates rainfall data to assess the risk of flooding in the coming months. By considering multiple factors, we aim to provide a more holistic understanding of flood risks and enhance preparedness strategies. By combining the flood level predictions with rainfall forecasts, we can assess the flood risk in the coming months and take preventive actions, such as implementing early warning systems or strengthening infrastructure, to minimize the impact of potential flood events.

Performing of spatial hydro-geomorphology analysis to detect the potential flood susceptibility in kr. keureuto watershed using ahp-mcdm approach

Flood is one of the most destructive natural disasters that causes loss of lives, properties, and significant resources, repeatedly occurring throughout Aceh, particularly in North Aceh. Given the more frequent floods and their damaging effects, it appears urgent and crucial to enhance the identification and mapping of flood susceptibility. One method that has been developed is the flood susceptibility mapping method. However, this method cannot address the challenges of flood susceptibility zone delineation due to the uncertainty of evaluation processes and the complex nonlinear relationships between indicators and risk levels, given that flood mapping is a multi-criteria spatial decision problem requiring hydrologic and geographic information. The objectives of this research are to assess flood susceptibility using the AHP-MCDM and to integrate using GIS to produce flood susceptibility map in Kr. Keureuto Watershed. Seven criteria from hydrologic and geographic information of the watershed were collected and analyzed using ArcGIS, and the weight of criteria using AHP from 25 expert responders. The results shows that there are four distinct levels of flood susceptibility: very high, high, medium, and low vulnerable. Significantly, the downstream Kr. Keureuto watershed emerges as highly susceptible to flooding, compared to the upstream zone.

Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index

Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index

Analisis Tingkat Kerawanan Bencana Banjir di Kota Bandar Lampung Berbasis GIS (Geographic Information System) dan Citra Landsat 8 Oli

Floods in the city of Bandar Lampung are events that occur every year. This has a detrimental impact on humans and the environment, especially during the rainy season where floods often occur. To reduce the impact of human and environmental losses due to floods, this can be done through mitigating flood- prone areas by mapping flood-prone areas using the GIS 10.3 application with the overlay method by combining the parameters used and weighting each parameter to be produce a flood hazard map. This study aims to determine areas that have high flood potential, the main factors causing flooding and to determine the flood vulnerability class in each area of Bandar Lampung City. The parameters used in this study are Land Form, Rainfall, Soil Type, Land Slope, Land Altitude and Building Density. The analysis technique was carried out by giving weights to each environmental parameter and overlay techniques (tumpeng stacking maps) using the GIS application, analysis of building density levels using Landsat 8 image interpretation OLI Band 5 and Band 6. The results showed that the main factors causing flooding in Bandar City Lampung, namely high and evenly distributed rainfall in the city of Bandar Lampung reaching 3000 mm/year. Districts with a very high level of flood vulnerability are in the Bumi Waras District, covering an area of 13% of the administrative area of the District. Then areas that have a high level of flood vulnerability include Panjang 9% and East Betung Bay 4% of the area.North Betung Bay 9% and East Betung Bay 3.17% of the area. Keywords: ArcGis, Flood, Vulnerability, Weighting.

Strategi Pemetaan Genangan Banjir Sungai di Kota Pekalongan Menggunakan Model SCS-CN

Pekalongan City consistently experiences annual floods. In this research, we aimed to map the distribution of potential flood inundation in Pekalongan City under two scenarios: the existing land cover and urban planning (Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah/RTRW). We utilized hydrological modeling to assess the suitability of the RTRW for future implementation. The Soil Conservation Service – Curve Number (SCS-CN) method was employed, incorporating Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, soil data, precipitation data, and two sets of land cover data (existing and urban planning). The findings indicate that under the existing land cover, approximately 13.97% of the area is susceptible to flooding, while the remaining 86.03% is not at risk. Conversely, the model using the urban planning (RTRW) scenario suggests that 14.06% of the area has the potential to flood, while 85.94% is not susceptible to flooding. The increase in potential flooding in the urban planning scenario may be attributed to the expansion of residential areas and the reduction of plantation and dry land cover. Furthermore, in assessing monthly modeling results, we observed that the area with flood potential is highest in December 2022 and lowest in June 2022. Considering topographical conditions (DEM), we found that the potential for flood inundation is fairly and evenly distributed in flat areas, mostly with elevations of less than 11 meters. Areas at higher elevations are predominantly free from flood potential, but it is noteworthy that certain areas in the Pekalongan Selatan District, with elevations higher than 11 meters, still have the potential for flooding. Keywords: Flood, hydrology model, SCS-CN, existing land cover, urban planning