Potential Fatalities Research Articles

Simulation of Dispersion Potential and Fatality Percentage of SO2 and CO2 Flue Gas from Combustion of Coal in West Lombok Power Plant using Gaussian Model

Combustion of coal in coal-fired power plants produces air pollution such as SO 2 , NO x , CO 2, and Particulates. The Jeranjang power plant in West Lombok Regency uses 300,000 tons/year of coal to generate 75 MW of electricity. It can be a large potential for environmental pollution. This research aims to simulate the potential of SO 2 and CO 2 exhaust gas dispersion to the environment and the fatality percentage caused by burning the Jeranjang coal power plant using the Gauss Model. The research was conducted by a literature study and direct observation of PLTU Jeranjang. After that, in this research, the SO 2 and CO 2 concentration were calculated. At the end of the study, estimating the potential dispersion and fatality percentage by SO 2 and CO 2 gas was also calculated around the Jeranjang power plant. The results are SO 2 dispersion with a dispersion mass of 0.145 kg/sec from a distance of 2,000 to 46,000 m increased from 1x10 -45 to 1.9x10 -5 ppm and decreased to 0 ppm. The fatality percentage generated is 0%. The CO 2 dispersion potential into the environment without a mass of 12.378 kg/sec increases at a distance of 2,000 to 58,000 m, from a concentration of 2.7x10 -65 to 0.00184 ppm. The CO 2 concentration decreases to 0 ppm. The fatality percentage generated is 0%. The calculation of settlement dispersion around the PLTU Jeranjang can be safe from SO 2 and CO 2 dispersion, and the fatality percentage generated is 0%.

The toxicity of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) to vascular endothelial cells

AbstractSeveral epidemiologic and toxicological studies have widely regarded ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), the particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm, as a strong potential threat to human health. PM2.5 exposure is mainly through the respiratory tract where it can permeate the lung alveoli and enter the blood circulation. After going into the circulation, PM2.5 directly confronts the vascular endothelial cells (VECs). The VECs, which are lined up in the innermost layer of the blood vessels, are essential in the homeostasis of physiological processes. Thus, the damage and dysfunction of VECs is a common cause of various diseases. In this review, we summarize the toxicity of PM2.5 to VECs including the pathophysiological mechanism and the effects of VEC‐mediated physiological functions. The review has discussed the association of impaired VEC function by PM2.5 with various diseases, indicating that the VECs may be an effective assessment of public health recommendations under PM2.5 exposure. Therefore, reducing the adverse effect of PM2.5 on VECs will prevent the potential occurrence and fatality of the relevant diseases in the future.

Estimating Fatality and Injury Savings Because of Deployment of Advanced Wrong-Way Driving Countermeasures on a Toll Road Network

Limited access facility wrong-way driving (WWD) crashes are typically more severe than other crashes. Deploying advanced WWD countermeasures, such as rectangular flashing beacon (RFB) and light-emitting diode (LED) technologies, at exit ramps can reduce WWD crashes, injuries, and fatalities. No previous research has developed a methodology to quantify the potential fatality and injury savings because of future countermeasure deployments. This paper developed such a methodology and applied it to Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise (FTE) toll road network. From 2011–2016, there were 53 FTE WWD crashes, resulting in 16 fatalities and annual injury costs of $37 million. The proportion of these crashes occurring during night-time was 87%. RFB and LED life-cycle injury savings and costs were determined for all 216 FTE exits. The total savings were $424 million for RFBs (benefit–cost [B/C] ratio of 23.20) and $144 million for LEDs (B/C ratio of 13.13). Deploying countermeasures at the 103 exits with the highest B/C ratios would provide 70% of the total possible savings by equipping 40% of the ramps. For the same capital investment, RFBs provide more savings than LEDs. Spending $1 million to deploy RFBs will provide similar savings as spending $3.4 million to deploy LEDs. Evaluating the existing FTE RFB and LED ramps shows that RFBs are more effective at night-time and can provide three times the savings of LEDs. The results of this paper show the improved performance of RFBs over LEDs and provide an example that other agencies could follow to identify savings and cost-effectively deploy advanced WWD countermeasures.

Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Hsincheng Active Fault in Taohsin Area, Taiwan

The purpose of this study is to assess seismic hazards in the 29 administration districts of Taohsin area (Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City), Taiwan in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to estimate potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake Mw 6.77 on the Hsincheng active fault in this area. The PGA contour map using historical seismic data and four active faults to calculate the ground motions shows that the areas where the PGA is greater than 400 gal are in the following regions: (1) Southwestern Longtan. (2) Southwestern Hukou, southern Sinfong, southeastern Sinpu, northern and central Jhubei, northern Guansi, central Cyonglin, central Jhudong, western Beipu, southern Baoshan and Emei. (3) The northeastern Bei District and the northern Dong District. Furthermore, the PGV contour map shows that the areas greater than 40cm/s is located in the central Jhubei, western Beipu, southern Baoshan, Emei, and northern and western Dong District of Hsinchu City. In addition, we calculate the probability of earthquake intensity show that the regions with the highest potential for earthquake hazards are located in the area surrounded by Beipu, Baoshan and Emei, as well as the area surrounded by Hukou, Sinfong, Jhubei, Bei Distruct and Xiangshan. The corresponding probability of earthquake intensity exceeding MMI VIII during the period of 50 years is above 35%. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Hsincheng fault, the fatalities are 367, 848 and 809 in Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County and Hsinchu City, respectively. Moreover, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly for people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Especially, the area surrounded by Jhubei of Hsinchu County, Bei District and Dong District of Hsinchu City with both high population density and high site amplification factor for PGA and PGV, the local governments should be pay more attention on seismic hazard mitigation in this highly urbanized area with large number of buildings.

Occipital Lobe Abscess Causing Homonymous Hemianopsia After a Dental Procedure

Background: A homonymous hemianopsia visual field defect is defined as vision loss on the same side of the vertical midline in both eyes. Although the vast majority are caused by an ischemic stroke, other neurologic etiologies must be considered and ruled out. This case highlights the importance of a rapid and thorough investigation of a patient’s symptoms using both clinical examination and imaging to reduce the risk of permanent complications and potential fatality. Case Report: A 67-year-old Caucasian male presented to the eye clinic with sudden onset reduced peripheral vision to his right side in both eyes. Entering visual acuities were 20/40 OD and 20/60 OS. Humphrey visual field (HVF) testing confirmed a complete right homonymous hemianopsia. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed a large, left occipital lobe intracranial mass. Neurosurgical intervention was necessary to confirm the diagnosis of a brain abscess, thought to be related to a prior dental procedure with tooth extraction. Conclusion: A brain abscess is a focal area of necrosis within the brain parenchyma that typically results from an infectious process. Though rare, the condition has potentially devastating neurologic complications which can be mitigated with early detection and treatment. In this case, the abscess caused a right homonymous hemianopsia field defect, which prompted his urgent request for an appointment with the eye clinic.

Anaphylaxis: Five Years' Experience in the Emergency Rooms of Five University Hospitals in Korea.

Background: Anaphylaxis is an allergic disease that requires special handling due to its potential fatality. Recent epidemiological data indicate that the incidence of anaphylaxis is rising. However, actual data on the prevalence or causes of anaphylaxis in Korea are limited. Methods: The emergency room attendees diagnosed with anaphylaxis between 2011 and 2015 in five university hospitals were included. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively. Results: During the 5 years, a total of 505 subjects were diagnosed with anaphylaxis. Respiratory presentations were more common in children than in adults, while adults presented more frequently with cardiovascular symptoms. Intraoral angioedema was more often observed in the countryside than in the city. Insect stings/bites were more common in the countryside than in the city. Drugs were much more common in adults than in children. In the countryside, the frequency of anaphylaxis was higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter. The use of corticosteroids was less common in children than in adults, while children more frequently got treatment with inhaled beta 2 agonist. Conclusions: The principal causes of anaphylaxis in Korean patients were food, drugs, and stings/bites. The cause, clinical features and management of anaphylaxis were significantly different depending on age and region. These real-world data on anaphylaxis could be helpful to deepen that understanding of this condition for physicians and patients.

Bali in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Population and Employment Dilemmas

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic has a huge impact on the lives of Balinese citizens. The aim of this study is to find the right steps and frameworks that enable to reduce the spread and death caused by COVID-19 as quickly and as minimally as possible, so that the sustainable impact on the socioeconomic can be reduce.
 Research methods: Preventive measures are needed, especially for the Field Facilitator Staff as the front guard, so that the BSPS program channelled adequately. The key to smooth distribution, in addition to the precise mechanism, must also follow the government's recommendations and implement health protocols.
 Findings: The results show that the population and employment structure of Bali has high potential for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is due to the high level of population mobility, both population mobility between regions within the country and population mobility between countries. The second cause is the Balinese population structure consists of many elderly people, thus causing a high potential case fatality rate from a pandemic.
 Implications: Based on the results of the study, it is recommend minimize the possibility of the spread of covid-19 through the first and second rapid tests involving as many residents that potential to be covid-19 deployment carrier, both through local transmission and imported cases.

Early epidemiological indicators, outcomes, and interventions of COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review.

BackgroundCoronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic that brought the whole world to a standstill, has led to financial and health care burden. We aimed to evaluate epidemiological characteristics, needs of resources, outcomes, and global burden of the disease.MethodsSystematic review was performed searching PubMed from December 1, 2019, to March 25, 2020, for full-text observational studies that described epidemiological characteristics, following MOOSE protocol. Global data were collected from the JHU-Corona Virus Resource Center, WHO-COVID-2019 situation reports, KFF.org, and Worldometers.info until March 31, 2020. The prevalence percentages were calculated. The global data were plotted in excel to calculate case fatality rate (CFR), predicted CFR, COVID-19 specific mortality rate, and doubling time for cases and deaths. CFR was predicted using Pearson correlation, regression models, and coefficient of determination.ResultsFrom 21 studies of 2747 patients, 8.4% of patients died, 20.4% recovered, 15.4% were admitted to ICU and 14.9% required ventilation. COVID-19 was more prevalent in patients with hypertension (19.3%), smoking (11.3%), diabetes mellitus (10%), and cardiovascular diseases (7.4%). Common complications were pneumonia (82%), cardiac complications (26.4%), acute respiratory distress syndrome (15.7%), secondary infection (11.2%), and septic shock (4.3%). Though CFR and COVID-19 specific death rates are dynamic, they were consistently high for Italy, Spain, and Iran. Polynomial growth models were best fit for all countries for predicting CFR. Though many interventions have been implemented, stern measures like nationwide lockdown and school closure occurred after very high infection rates (>10cases per 100 000population) prevailed. Given the trend of government measures and decline of new cases in China and South Korea, most countries will reach the peak between April 1-20, if interventions are followed.ConclusionsA collective approach undertaken by a responsible government, wise strategy implementation and a receptive population may help contain the spread of COVID-19 outbreak. Close monitoring of predictive models of such indicators in the highly affected countries would help to evaluate the potential fatality if the second wave of pandemic occurs. The future studies should be focused on identifying accurate indicators to mitigate the effect of underestimation or overestimation of COVID-19 burden.

A psychiatrist's perspective from a COVID-19 epicentre: a personal account.

The COVID-19 pandemic has and will have a huge impact on mental health, especially in countries that have been significantly affected, such as Spain. Here we aim to provide the perspectives of a group of psychiatrists from Barcelona, one of the epicentres of the pandemic so far, to highlight the potential fatality of a virus that caught us unaware and unprepared, and hopefully this article will be of aid to countries about to face the pandemic. The unprecedented situations that we have been faced with so far have included reconfiguring hospitals and the redeployment of healthcare professionals, with flexibility and adaptability key to managing the overload in demand. This has led to healthcare professionals being exposed to extremely stressful situations and they have had impossible decisions to make that may have mental health consequences, some of which may be severe and long lasting. A rebound effect on mental health problems is to be expected in the medium and long term, especially for healthcare professionals and psychiatric patients, necessitating a strengthening of preventive approaches and policies for mental health along with a prompt reopening of mental health services. Ways to provide psychiatric healthcare in the immediate future need to be re-evaluated, and the development of telepsychiatry services is probably to be expected.

Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives

Abstract Most of the literature on the economics of catastrophes assumes that such events cause a reduction in the stream of consumption, as opposed to widespread fatalities. Here we show how to incorporate death in a model of catastrophe avoidance, and how a catastrophic loss of life can be expressed as a welfare-equivalent drop in consumption. We examine how potential fatalities affect the policy interdependence of catastrophic events and ‘willingness to pay’ (WTP) to avoid them. Using estimates of the ‘value of a statistical life’ (VSL), we find the WTP to avoid major pandemics, and show that it is large (10% or more of annual consumption) and partly driven by the risk of macroeconomic contractions. Likewise, the risk of pandemics significantly increases the WTP to reduce consumption risk. Our work links the VSL and consumption disaster literatures.

Understanding COVID-19 Vaccines and Their Development.

Understanding COVID-19 Vaccines and Their Development.

Scenario ensemble modelling of possible future earthquake impacts in Bhutan

Recent large earthquakes in the Himalaya have resulted in tens of thousands of fatalities, yet these events are thought to have had relatively moderate magnitudes for the region. Evidence suggests multiple events throughout the Himalaya in the last 1000 years have had M > 8.0 and at least two have had M > 8.5. Despite this, understanding of earthquake risk in the region is poorly constrained, particularly in Bhutan, where research on both past and future earthquakes is notably scarce. While recent work has clearly shown the potential for large earthquakes here, the impacts from potential future earthquakes in Bhutan are entirely unknown. This study attempts to address this by modelling the potential fatalities associated with a range of plausible earthquakes through a scenario ensemble analysis in order to inform contingency planning and preparedness. The results show that both the timing and location of future earthquakes are critical factors in determining the number of fatalities, with night-time earthquakes, and those located in the west of the country proving most fatal. The worst case involves ~ 9000 fatalities and results from an M8.5 earthquake directly beneath Bhutan. Nevertheless, at the local scale the number of fatalities appears to saturate at ~ M7.5, since larger earthquakes do not result in significantly larger modelled fatalities. This suggests that local-scale impacts approaching the worst case may be relatively common and emergency planning could focus on comparatively moderate-sized earthquakes since larger, less frequent events may not necessarily result in significantly more fatalities.

Fatalities due to bridge collapse

In the context of risk or lifecycle cost assessments of bridges, in addition to the probability of collapse, damage consequences are used as input parameters. One of the most important damage consequences of a bridge collapse is the number of possible fatalities. Known methods for estimating the potential number of fatalities are presented in this paper and a new method is presented that makes use of the current state-of-the-art regarding the causes of bridge collapse. Using this method, the number of potential fatalities can be individually estimated depending on the type of bridge.

Eruption on Indonesia’s volcanic islands: a review of potential hazards, fatalities, and management

Among the 17,504 islands in Indonesia, there are a number of volcanic islands with active volcanoes amid human inhabitation. These conditions can be dangerous when the volcano erupts. This paper provides a review of eruptions on Indonesia’s volcanic islands, especially in potential hazard, fatalities, and management. There were 22 Indonesia’s volcanic islands with records of volcanic eruptions during the Holocene era. Seventy three percent of them are classified as active and have a high potential to endanger the surrounding population who generally live on small islands. More than 150,000 people have been evacuated in 25 volcanic unrest of 9 volcanic island during 1966 to 2017. The largest human fatalities from eruption on volcanic island was caused by volcanic tsunami. Since 416 to 2018 there were 19 volcanic tsunami events on Indonesia’s volcanic islands, resulting in 41,328 death tolls. With this review, we hope that our knowledge of volcanic eruption on Indonesia’s volcanic island can be improved and the community living around the volcanoes can be more prepared to face a volcanic crisis that can occur at any time.

A recombinant subunit Lassa virus vaccine elicits strong antibody responses

Abstract Due to the epidemic potential and high case fatality rate, the WHO has declared the development of a Lassa virus (LASV) vaccine as a high priority for preventative use in endemic regions. We used a recombinant subunit vaccine platform to generate recombinant LASV glycoprotein (GP) in an insect cell expression system and tested its immunogenicity in an outbred mouse model. Briefly, LASV GP was secreted from a stably transformed Drosophila S2 cell line and the clarified culture supernatant was purified using immunoaffinity chromatography (IAC). SDS-PAGE gel analysis showed that the purity of the antigen was sufficient for immunogenicity testing. The eluted LASV GP was composed of GP1 and GP2 subunits, the GP1–2 heterodimer, as well as trace amounts of oligomer. Swiss Webster mice immunized intramuscularly with 3 doses of purified recombinant LASV GP, formulated with various adjuvants, showed maximal GP-specific antibody response after two immunizations. We concluded that we have successfully developed a production method for highly-purified, insect-cell expressed recombinant LASV GP capable of eliciting high antibody titers when formulated with a suitable adjuvant after only two doses. These results indicate the potential for recombinant GP to be an efficacious vaccine candidate. Further work on structural enhancements of the antigen and in-depth characterization of antibody and cell-mediated responses is ongoing.

COVID-19 Outbreak and Surgical Practice: Unexpected Fatality in Perioperative Period.

Little is known about surgical practice in the initial phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global crisis. This is a retrospective case series of 4 surgical patients (cholecystectomy, hernia repair, gastric bypass, and hysterectomy) who developed perioperative complications in the first few weeks of COVID-19 outbreak in Tehran, Iran in the month of February 2020. COVID-19 can complicate the perioperative course with diagnostic challenge and a high potential fatality rate. In locations with widespread infections and limited resources, the risk of elective surgical procedures for index patient and community may outweigh the benefit.

Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan

In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.

Welfare Costs of Catastrophes: Lost Consumption and Lost Lives

Most of the literature on the economics of catastrophes assumes that such events cause a reduction in the stream of consumption, as opposed to widespread fatalities. Here we show how to incorporate death in a model of catastrophe avoidance, and how a catastrophic loss of can be expressed as a welfare-equivalent drop in wealth or consumption. We examine how potential fatalities affect the policy interdependence of catastrophic events and willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid them. Using estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL), we find the WTP to avoid major pandemics, and show it is large (10% or more of annual consumption) and partly driven by the risk of macroeconomic contractions. Likewise, the risk of pandemics significantly increases the WTP to reduce consumption risk. Our work links the VSL and consumption disaster literatures.

How Effective are Social Distancing Policies? Evidence on the Fight Against COVID-19 from Germany

To fight the spread of COVID-19, many countries implemented unprecedented social distancing policies. This is the first paper that uses an event-study approach to examine the effects of the German social distancing policies on (a) individual behavior and (b) the spread of the epidemic. Combining administrative health data and cell phone data, we find that the policies, first, heavily reduced citizens' mobility and, second, strongly contained the epidemic. In comparison to a benchmark without social distancing, within three weeks, the policies avoided 84% of the potential COVID-19 cases (point estimate: 499.3K) and 66% of the potential fatalities (5.4K).

Simple Emergency Triage (SET) – the new perspective on mass casualty incident triage

The aim: Incidents with large number of casualties present a major challenge for the emergency services. Incident witnesses are always the first on scene. Authors aim at giving them an algorithm arranging the widely known first aid rules in such way, that the number of potential fatalities before the services’ arrival may be decreased. Material and methods: The authors’ main aim was creating an algorithm for mass casualty incident action, comprising elements not exceeding first aid skill level. Proceedings have been systematized, which led to creation of mass casualty incident algorithm. The analysis was based on the subject matter literature, legal acts and regulations, statistical data and author’s personal experience. Results: The analysis and synthesis of data from various sources allowed for the creation of Simple Emergency Triage (SET) algorithm. It has been proven – on theoretical level – that introducing an organized way of proceeding in mass casualty incident on the first aid level is justified. Conclusions: The SET algorithm presented in the article is of an implemental character. It may be a supplement to basic first aid skills. Algorithm may also be the starting point for further empirical research aimed at verifying its effectiveness.