Potential Exit Research Articles

Implied Distributions from GBPUSD Risk-Reversals and Implication for Brexit Scenarios

Much of the debate around a potential British exit (Brexit) from the EU has centered on the potential macroeconomic impact. In this paper, we instead focus on understanding market expectations for price action around the Brexit referendum date. Extracting implied distributions from the GBPUSD option volatility surface, we estimate that the market expects a vote to leave could result in a move in GBPUSD from 1.4390 (spot reference on 10 June 2016) down to a range in 1.10 to 1.30, i.e. a 10-25% decline - very probably with highly volatile price action. In contrast, a vote to stay could result in a modest bounce in GBPUSD to around 1.47. We apply the same analysis to contrast the behaviour of the GBPUSD option market in the run-up to the Brexit vote with that during the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, finding the potential impact of Brexit to be considerably higher.

Ionization time of He atom in the strong field tunnelling ionization mode

The question of how long it takes for a particle to tunnel through a barrier, which was first put forward by MacColl (Phys. Rev. 40 621 (1932)), belongs to the fundamental process of quantum physics and has been the subject of intense debate since then. Many efforts have been devoted to addressing this question about how to define, explain and measure this tunneling time, but widespread controversies still exist in theories and experiments. Attosecond physics offers insights into ultrafast electron dynamics in atoms and moleculars on the attosecond (10-18 s) timescales, and therefore, ionization of atoms or moleculars in a strong laser filed allows for tackling this question in an experimentally and conceptually well-defined manner. The tunneling ionization dynamics of electrons plays an extremely important role in the field, since tunneling is the first crucial step in strong field ionizations of atoms and molecules and underlies virtually all present experiments in attosecond science. In the present paper, the tunneling ionization time of a single-active electron tunneling through a He atom subjected to a step static electric field, defined as a nonvanishing positive time delay between the instant of switch-on of the step static electric field and the one of ionization, is obtained from the numerical solution of the time-dependent Schrdinger equation in one dimension. The results show that the time delay between the instant of maximum probability current at the potential barrier exit and the one of switch-on of the step static electric field and the time delay needed by the ground wave function evolving to the continuum, which can be expressed as the transition element of the incident and transmitted parts of the wave function, are both very close to the Keldysh time explained as the time it takes for the bound electron having velocity = iIp/2 to cross the tunneling barrier. Compared with the definition of tunneling time delay in other literature, the one of the ground wave function evolution to the continuous state is much consistent with the actual ionization process. The reason why the electron tunneling time cannot be defined as the time delay between the maximum ionization rate and the instant of the laser peak field is that the wave function could penetrate the tunneling barrier earlier if a few-cycle optical field is adopted in experiment. According to the analysis in this article, an experimental method of measuring the actual electron tunneling ionization time using the optical field synthesis technique is proposed. The results of this paper will be helpful in tackling the problem of tunneling time in strong ionization.

Examining the effects of turnover intentions on organizational citizenship behaviors and deviance behaviors: A psychological contract approach.

Although turnover intentions are considered the most proximal antecedent of organizational exit, there is often temporal separation between thinking about leaving and actual exit. Using field data from 2 diverse samples of working adults, we explore a causal model of the effects of turnover intentions on employee behavior while they remain with the organization, focusing specifically on organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) and deviance behaviors (DBs). Utilizing expectancy theory as an explanatory framework, we argue that turnover intentions result in high levels of transactional contract orientation and low levels of relational contract orientation, which in turn lead to a decrease in the incidence of OCBs and an increase in the incidence of DBs. We first used a pilot study to investigate the direction of causality between turnover intentions and psychological contract orientations. Then, in Study 1, we tested our mediated model using a sample of employees from a large drug retailing chain. In Study 2, we expanded our model by arguing that the mediated effects are much stronger when the organization is deemed responsible for potential exit. We then tested our full model using a sample of employees from a large state-owned telecommunications corporation in China. Across both studies, results were generally consistent and supportive of our hypotheses. We discuss the implications of our findings for future theory, research, and practice regarding the management of both the turnover process and discretionary behaviors at work. (PsycINFO Database Record

Potential Exit from the Eurozone: The Case of Spain

According to a recent opinion poll that covered seven members of the Eurozone, Spain would be the Member State of this group that is most in favor of leaving the euro. In this public opinion context, and above all since the summer of 2012, debate has been growing in this country about the prospects of its exiting the European Monetary Union. In this article I argue that there are good reasons for taking this debate seriously. Using Spain as a case study, I analyze what the determinants of this decision could be. In particular, I analyze the economic determinants that could condition a decision in this direction. I conclude that in the current situation, a Eurozone member’s decision to leave the common currency would be conditioned, in economic terms, above all by time and fairness. Therefore, a key element that a member of the Eurozone would have to take into account when considering whether to leave the euro would be twofold: 1) the extent to which this decision would prompt a faster adjustment; and 2) the extent that exiting would cause a fairer distribution of the costs of the adjustment.

Corporate social responsibility: a likely causality of the crisis or a potential exit strategy component? A proposition development for an economy under pressure

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to outline a set of propositions for the Greek business sector concerning the value of strategically adopting a responsible business behaviour. The recent economic downturn of the Greek economy stresses the need for redefining current business models, attitudes and practices.Design/methodology/approach– The authors draw from prior literature on strategic corporate responsibility and build their arguments on the value of social responsibility as an important component of an exit strategy from the domestic economic crisis.Findings– Promoting the social responsibility of business could yield win–win opportunities for Greek firms and have a positive effect on the regeneration of the national economy’s dynamics. Connecting the well-established strategic CSR literature with the specific handicaps of an economy under pressure, we point out that the current deep crisis can be alleviated by regaining the trustworthiness, supporting the competitiveness potential and enhancing the extroversion of the Greek economy.Practical implications– Strategic options from which policymakers and managers can endorse the development of a CSR agenda as an exit strategy component are set forth. Such practical implications pertain to the creation of an enabling environment for strategic CSR implementation, an emphasis on CSR-related amelioration of competitiveness parameters and a redefinition of market orientation of domestic firms under the scope of socially responsible business behaviour.Originality/value– An economic–business environment under extreme pressure is discussed; problems relevant to the Greek case are outlined while a new approach in the way of doing business is proposed.

Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Lessons for Greece

The Greek sovereign debt crisis has raised some important issues, not only with regard to the effectiveness of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as an optimal currency area, but also as to whether or not a member state should exit the euro zone in the face of unsustainable debt problems, given the fact that the EMU lacks a fiscal union. Concerning Greece’s potential exit from the euro zone, the majority of the literature is confined to analyzing spillover effects to other member states and the endangerment of the euro’s stability, rather than highlighting the unsustainability of extreme balance-sheet effects upon a devaluation of the drachma. This paper explores what effects a euro exit would have on Greece’s economy and examines whether the exchange rate risk of devaluation would lead to a greater debt trap, causing irreversible harm to the economy. This paper analyzes devaluations after crises in certain emerging market economies (EMEs), namely South Korea, Russia, and Argentina. Despite differences in economic backgrounds and enforced policies, these countries experienced V-shaped recoveries, sustaining positive and relatively constant economic growth throughout the decade following the devaluation of their currencies. In this paper, Greece is considered an EME as well, and is therefore very comparable to the above examples. The Greek case exhibits many similarities to the situation in Argentina, in which internal devaluation was pursued ineffectively for four years, resulting in disorderly default and devaluation and the resumption of growth within the following year, thus underlining the plausibility of the argument. Despite numerous complications, a euro exit could have been beneficial for Greece under certain conditions because of the instant effects on competitiveness following an all-level currency devaluation, as opposed to the asymmetric internal devaluation strategy that is currently being pursued.

Netrin 1 and Dcc signalling are required for confinement of central axons within the central nervous system

The establishment of anatomically stereotyped axonal projections is fundamental to neuronal function. While most neurons project their axons within the central nervous system (CNS), only axons of centrally born motoneurons and peripherally born sensory neurons link the CNS and peripheral nervous system (PNS) together by navigating through specialized CNS/PNS transition zones. Such selective restriction is of importance because inappropriate CNS axonal exit could lead to loss of correct connectivity and also to gain of erroneous functions. However, to date, surprisingly little is known about the molecular-genetic mechanisms that regulate how central axons are confined within the CNS during development. Here, we show that netrin 1/Dcc/Unc5 chemotropism contributes to axonal confinement within the CNS. In both Ntn1 and Dcc mutant mouse embryos, some spinal interneuronal axons exit the CNS by traversing the CNS/PNS transition zones normally reserved for motor and sensory axons. We provide evidence that netrin 1 signalling preserves CNS/PNS axonal integrity in three ways: (1) netrin 1/Dcc ventral attraction diverts axons away from potential exit points; (2) a Dcc/Unc5c-dependent netrin 1 chemoinhibitory barrier in the dorsolateral spinal cord prevents interneurons from being close to the dorsal CNS/PNS transition zone; and (3) a netrin 1/Dcc-dependent, Unc5c-independent mechanism that actively prevents exit from the CNS. Together, these findings provide insights into the molecular mechanisms that maintain CNS/PNS integrity and, to the best of our knowledge, present the first evidence that chemotropic signalling regulates interneuronal CNS axonal confinement in vertebrates.

Global financial crisis, corporate governance, and firm survival:: The Russian experience

Using a unique dataset obtained from large-scale panel enterprise surveys conducted in 2005 and 2009, we clarify the survival status of Russian industrial firms before and after the global financial crisis and empirically examine the determinants of firm survival. The estimation of the Cox proportional hazard model provided evidence that the independence of company’s governance bodies, their human resource abundance, and influence over corporate management are statistically significant factors affecting the survival probability of the surveyed firms. In particular, the board of directors and the audit committee are likely to play a vital role in reducing the potential exit risk. We also found that there is a significant difference in the viewpoints of economic logic for firm survival held by independent firms and group companies.

When voice fails: Potential exit as a constraint on government quality

Poorly governed (e.g., repressive) countries tend to be located near other poorly governed countries, and well governed countries near other well governed countries. Researchers, by identifying country characteristics (e.g., ethnic fractionalization) that may influence government quality, have provided one potential explanation: Neighboring countries tend to be similar with respect to those characteristics. In this paper, we draw on Hirschman's notion of “exit” as a disciplining device in order to provide a different, though complementary, explanation: The ability of a ruler to implement policy that displeases the country's populace is constrained by opportunities for residents to relocate to other countries nearby. To generate testable predictions about the effects of potential exit on government quality, we develop a simple theoretical model. We test the model's predictions using cross-sectional and panel data, controlling for other determinants of government quality. The evidence we present – which includes discussion of historical examples such as ancient Greece and the Soviet Bloc – supports the model's predictions.

Bioremediation

Bioremediation

Eurobond: 'Yes, We Can!' (Eurobond: 'Si può fare')

This paper explores a potential new exit strategy from the sovereign debt crisis affecting European countries since 2010. The proposal is based on the securitization of sovereign debt and the transfer of its surer tranche to a bond at the European level with jointly responsibility between country members, the Eurobond. Mixing economic concepts differently from other similar proposals, this (perfectible) exit strategy is convenient, feasible and worthy to be realized. From a financial viewpoint, it would be the greater innovation from the introduction of Euro. From a fiscal viewpoint, it could lead gradually to the political union of Eurozona avoiding the scepticism of more virtuous countries. The idea can be applied also at the national level to debts of local administrations: the mutual monitoring between partners and the threat of exclusion to future issues could inventive virtuous behaviors reducing sovereign debt endogenously.

Natural Resources and Chronic Poverty in India: A Review of Issues and Evidence

Natural resources perform multiple functions as a driver, maintainer, potential exit route, and also an effective escape mechanism in the context of poverty dynamics, especially in a predominantly agrarian economy such as India. The discourse on poverty reduction however, has often overlooked some of the major concerns of natural resource management, despite recognizing the criticality of agricultural growth for reducing rural poverty in the country. This paper presents an overview of the interface between natural resources and poverty in India and pleads for better equity and sustainability in resource management by ensuring sustained investment in support institutions at various levels. While a number of schemes have been undertaken for management of natural resources viz; land, water, and forests by adopting participatory approaches, much of this remains isolated from the mainstream strategies for enhancing agricultural productivity across the three sets of regions-dry land; high potential rain fed; and high potential irrigated-where the emphasis is mainly on crop technology and yield maximization. The challenge now, is to shift towards water efficient and knowledge/employment intensive systems of agricultural production. Achieving this would require a more nuanced approach, which incorporates differential agro-ecological features on the one hand, and employment-livelihood needs on the other. (This paper is also published as CPRC Working Paper No. 152.)

Government measures in support of the financial sector in the EU and the United States

In the last issue of Intereconomics, a first article by the present authors looked into the measures that central banks have taken in support of the financial sector in an effort to mitigate the effects of the financial crisis. This second article describes the measures taken by governments to contain the impact of the financial crisis and discusses potential exit strategies. Although the focus is on the measures implemented by euro area governments, the article also compares these measures with the ones taken in the United Kingdom and the United States.

Secreted Mycobacterium tuberculosis Rv3654c and Rv3655c Proteins Participate in the Suppression of Macrophage Apoptosis

BackgroundInhibition of macrophage apoptosis by Mycobacterium tuberculosis has been proposed as one of the virulence mechanisms whereby the pathogen avoids the host defense. The mechanisms by which M. tuberculosis H37Rv strain suppress apoptosis and escapes human macrophage killing was investigated.Methodology/Principal FindingsThe screening of a transposon mutant bank identified several mutants, which, in contrast to the wild-type bacterium, had impaired ability to inhibit apoptosis of macrophages. Among the identified genes, Rv3659c (31G12 mutant) belongs to an operon reminiscent of type IV pili. The Rv3654c and Rv3655c putative proteins in a seven-gene operon are secreted into the macrophage cytoplasm and suppress apoptosis by blocking the extrinsic pathway. The operon is highly expressed when the bacterium is within macrophages, compared to the expression level in the extracellular environment. Rv3654c recognizes the polypyrimidine tract binding Protein-associated Splicing Factor (PSF) and cleaves it, diminishing the availability of caspase-8. While M. tuberculosis inhibits apoptosis by the extrinsic pathway, the pathogen does not appear to affect the intrinsic pathway. Inactivation of the intrinsic pathway by pharmacologic agents afftects M. tuberculosis and induces cell necrosis. Likewise, inactivation of PSF by siRNA significantly decreased the level of caspase-8 in macrophages.ConclusionWhile M. tuberculosis inhibits the extrinsic pathway of apoptosis, it appears to activate the intrinsic pathway leading to macrophage necrosis as a potential exit strategy.

Behind the Scenes: The Corporate Governance Preferences of Institutional Investors

We survey institutional investors to better understand their role in the corporate governance of firms. Consistent with a number of theories we document widespread behind-the-scenes intervention as well as governance-motivated exit. Both governance mechanisms are viewed as complementary devices, in which intervention typically will occur prior to a potential exit. We find that long-term investors and investors that are less concerned about stock liquidity intervene more intensively. Finally, most investors use proxy advisors and believe that their information improves their own voting decisions.

Developing a Global Health Diplomacy Supply Chain—A Viable Option for the United States to Curb Extremism

This study examines the idea of developing a global health diplomacy supply chain as an important foreign policy approach with the aim of improving the lives of vulnerable populations and serving the best interests of the United States. The study was based on the review of academic literature, news events, and military communiqués, and historical writings were studied to determine the feasibility of the idea and the extent of costs and benefits of such an endeavor. An integrated strategic business model, supported by a medical care delivery process, was developed to create a framework for a feasible global health diplomacy supply chain. The findings indicate that extremism can be contained by creating and efficiently executing an effective supply chain to get medical care units to those that need them. The limitations are the potential exit strategies required, the tactical abilities, and diplomatic techniques needed in order to create positive diplomatic change in aid distribution. Managers must consider how supply chains will affect other organizations giving aid and the potential public response. Moreover, determining the level of care necessary to achieve the greatest positive health diplomacy continues to require vigilant scrutiny over the potential cost/benefit analysis. The analysis is valuable to policymakers considering the impacts of health diplomacy by utilizing supply chain management.

Wound Ballistics of Injuries Caused by Handguns With Different Types of Projectiles

There are considerable differences in the shape and composition of military and civilian projectiles. Five different projectiles with the same kinetic energy were fired into the heads of freshly sacrificed pigs (n=30) through the submental region in the occipital direction. Computed tomography (CT) and 3D face scans of the animal skulls were obtained before and after firing. The image data sets were fused and provided the basis for a quantitative analysis of destruction patterns. As a result of the destruction of the parietal bone at the potential exit site, there were significant volume difference between the Action 4 (6.45 +/- 3.42 ml) and the Hydra-Shok projectile (12.71 +/- 2.86 ml). The partial metal-jacketed projectile showed a minor increase in volume (4.89 +/- 1.47 ml) and a partial loss of soft projectile components. Radiology showed differences between the various projectiles in fragmentation and bone and soft-tissue destruction. Although the projectiles had the same kinetic energy, there were considerable differences in injury patterns between full metal-jacketed projectiles, which are the only projectiles permitted for military use under the Geneva Conventions, and the other investigated projectiles. These injuries present a major medical challenge to both first responders and surgeons.

Applying the real options approach to an optimal multi-stage acquisition model

This study introduces the real options approach to construct the mathematical decision-making model of multi-stage acquisitions so as to evaluate the optimal strategy for the stages of negotiating, acquiring, and exiting. This work assesses either waiting to acquire value and/or potential exit value or true value at each stage and provides to search the stable equilibrium solution which is recognized by acquiring and acquired firms. This investigation also considers the bidding strategy in the stage of negotiating. Furthermore, the proposed model of acquiring price which is decided by a mix-strategy forrunning the equilibrium expected firm value is also a main focus in this paper

The Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet - What Happened and Why it Matters

The recent expansion of the balance sheet of the consolidated Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) is analyzed in an historical context. The analysis reveals that the nature of Fed involvement in U.S. financial markets has changed dramatically and its expansion is several orders of magnitude beyond what is usually reported. The associated fiscal risks and potential exit strategies are then considered. Although risks are considerable in certain unlikely scenarios, FRB capital, earnings capacity, and reserves are more than ample to preserve their financial independence. Nevertheless, the occurrence of losses or a significant drop in FRB profit might lead to an eventual curtailment of Fed operational independence. The paper concludes by considering options to enhance FRB risk management and to assign responsibilities for monetary, financial stability and fiscal policies once the current crisis is overcome.

The Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet-What Happened and Why it Matters

The recent expansion of the balance sheet of the consolidated Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) is analyzed in an historical context. The analysis reveals that the nature of Fed involvement in U.S. financial markets has changed dramatically and its expansion is several orders of magnitude beyond what is usually reported. The associated fiscal risks and potential exit strategies are then considered. Although risks are considerable in certain unlikely scenarios, FRB capital, earnings capacity, and reserves are more than ample to preserve their financial independence. Nevertheless, the occurrence of losses or a significant drop in FRB profit might lead to an eventual curtailment of Fed operational independence. The paper concludes by considering options to enhance FRB risk management and to assign responsibilities for monetary, financial stability and fiscal policies once the current crisis is overcome.