Potential Environmental Changes Research Articles

Environmental Assessments for Wetlands and Estuaries Management near Tidal Power Plant Using of Mass Balance Simulation

The closed bay formed by a tidal power plant on the west coast of Korea has caused water quality to change due to nutrient increase and salinity alternation. The nutrients of the inner bay are often kept a balance with the aid of the outflow at the mouth of the bay. Hence it is necessary to minimize the environmental effects by forecasting the potential environmental changes caused by a tidal power construction. Seasonal observations of mass balance in the inner and outer Garolim Bay were performed. The low quality nutrients released from sediments, land and river were more dominant than the nutrients released from the outer bay in the study area. It was observed that the tidal power plant construction made water exchange ratio 57%.Various mitigation strategies such as water gates were studied so that the water exchange rate can be reduced. The change in the water exchange ratio is significantly reduced as the cross-section and the number of water gates is increased. The water exchange ratio was decreased by 8%, which increased nutrients in the inner bay. Results of numerical the nutrients decreased with the 7% increase in the inflow while the decrease in outflow discharges. However, it is considered only 0.2% increase in the entire mass balance of Garolim Bay relatively inadequate to mitigate the environmental impact.

An environmental snapshot of the Bølling interstadial in Southern Iberia

The Bølling–Allerød interstadial is the closest warm time period to the Holocene. The study of the climate variability during this most recent warm scenario provides a natural record of potential environmental changes related with global temperature variations. Little is known about this interstadial in the Southern Iberian Peninsula. Therefore, the exceptional climatic record of the Otiñar paleo-lake (ca. 14.5–14.0calkaBP), provides environmental information about the first part of this interstadial (Bølling) in this key region. Although the studied high-resolution isotopic record point to almost invariant hydrological conditions in the paleo-lake, with little change in the carbon budget and important limestone dissolution, the pollen record shows an increase in forest species that can be interpreted as a warming trend and an increase in humidity during the Bølling in the area. This record is one of the few continental archives that show this climatic trend in Southern Iberia, agreeing with many other regional records from the western Mediterranean. This does not agree with higher latitude records that show an opposite trend. This opposite pattern in precipitation between the western Mediterranean and more northern latitudes could be explained by a persistent and increasing negative NAO mode during the Bølling in this area.

Purging deleterious mutations in conservation programmes: combining optimal contributions with inbred matings

Conservation programmes aim at minimising the loss of genetic diversity, which allows populations to adapt to potential environmental changes. This can be achieved by calculating how many offspring every individual should contribute to the next generation to minimise global coancestry. However, an undesired consequence of this strategy is that it maintains deleterious mutations, compromising the viability of the population. In order to avoid this, optimal contributions could be combined with inbred matings, to expose and eliminate recessive deleterious mutations by natural selection in a process known as purging. Although some populations that have undergone purging experienced reduced inbreeding depression, this effect is not consistent across species. Whether purging by inbred matings is efficient in conservation programmes depends on the balance between the loss of diversity, the initial decrease in fitness and the reduction in mutational load. Here we perform computer simulations to determine whether managing a population by combining optimal contributions with inbred matings improves its long-term viability while keeping reasonable levels of diversity. We compare the management based on genealogical information with management based on molecular data to calculate coancestries. In the scenarios analysed, inbred matings never led to higher fitness and usually maintained lower diversity than random or minimum coancestry matings. Replacing genealogical with molecular coancestry can maintain a larger genetic diversity but can also lead to a lower fitness. Our results are strongly dependent on the mutational model assumed for the trait under selection, the population size during management and the reproductive rate.

A Mediterranean palæo-perspective relevant to potential environmental changes in the future

A Mediterranean palæo-perspective relevant to potential environmental changes in the future

An integrated sustainable development approach to modeling the eco-environmental effects from urbanization

Urbanization induces detrimental effects on the eco-environment that are beginning to be extensively described. However, the adoption of suitable indicators and reliable methods still requires attention to provide a basis for a more accurate understanding of eco-environmental effects from urbanization. The aggregated index system representing the coupling relationships between urbanization and eco-environment was introduced and an integrated sustainable development approach (ISD) to simulate and evaluate the integrative effects was developed in this paper. The ISD consists of modules of the coupling relationship assessments, systematic analysis of potential eco-environmental changes, and sustainability evaluation. An interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and grey relative technique (GRT) are used to analyze the systematical structure and assess the coupling relationships. A system dynamics model (SD) and artificial neural network (ANN) are used to simulate the potential environmental changes and compare the sustainability, respectively. An application study of Jiangsu province in China was performed, where the general eco-environmental integrity is under significant urbanization pressure. The potential eco-environmental scenarios from 2010 to 2015 under natural, populated, economic, spatial and social urbanization patterns were simulated and analyzed. The result reveals that the urbanization sustainability may be met on condition that either populated urbanization or social urbanization pattern is adopted in Jiangsu province, China. The aggregated indexes and ISD may help local authorities better understand and address the complex coupling relationship, and develop improved regional environmental management strategies that better balance urbanization and eco-environmental conservation.

High occurrence of Orbulina suturalis and “Praeorbulina-like specimens” in sediments of the northern Arabian Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum

This study focuses on the exceptionally high occurrence of Orbulina suturalis and morphotypes very close to Praeorbulina in Late Glacial sediments from the Northern Arabian Sea. The genus Praeorbulina has been described by Blow (1956) as an ancestor of Orbulina universa. Our study is based on the analysis of three sediment cores retrieved in the Gulf of Oman (KS01, MD04-2849, and MD04-2861), covering the Late Pleistocene (last 30 ka CAL-BP). Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages were investigated and revealed that this remarkable abundance of Orbulina suturalis, and numerous specimens morphologically close to Praeorbulina, occurs during a short time interval roughly representing the Last Glacial Maximum. One AMS 14C date was obtained on a monospecific sample of Praeorbulina-like specimens, giving an age of 19 CAL-ka BP, which confirms the Late Glacial age and unreworked character of this population. In this paper, we discuss the morphological similarities relating the observed Praeorbulina-like specimens to the genera Orbulina and Praeorbulina. We will also discuss the period of occurrence of these specimens and the potential environmental changes that may have caused their atypical morphology.

Developing an arctic subsistence observation system

The goal of the Arctic Observing Network Social Indicators Project subsistence component is to assess the adequacy of existing subsistence harvest data to advance our understanding of arctic change and to serve as the basis for recommending steps that can improve the observation network. The assessment is based on a database developed to include 1521 place/year records for Alaska and northern Canada. Of these records, 641 include estimates of harvest of all resources. Separate harvest reports are available for 131 species. Annual harvests are expressed as kilograms of edible harvest per capita for years ranging from 1965 to 2007. One or more measures per decade of comprehensive harvest in the 1990s and 2000s exist for 50 of the 411 arctic North American communities. Based on these results, in most, but not all regions, available data on subsistence harvests in Arctic North America cannot support analysis of changes in harvest over time. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game Community Subsistence Information System continues to provide harvest data for communities and has developed several regional sets of community harvest data in response to actual and potential environmental changes. The past harvest surveys conducted in the Nunavik, Inuvialuit, and Nunavut regions offer valuable experience as well as baseline data. The Arctic Borderlands Ecological Cooperative is a model of community–researcher collaboration. These past and current initiatives provide a foundation for the design of an expanded arctic subsistence observation network. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges and recommendations.

Contrasting Genetic Structure Between Magnaporthe grisea Populations Associated with the Golf Course Turfgrasses Lolium perenne (Perennial Ryegrass) and Pennisetum clandestinum (Kikuyugrass)

Gray leaf spot (GLS) disease of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne) and kikuyugrass (Pennisetum clandestinum) in golf courses in California was first noted in 2001 and 2003, respectively, and within 5 years had become well established. The causal agent of the disease is the fungus Magnaporthe grisea, which is known to consist primarily of clonal lineages that are highly host specific. Therefore, our objective was to investigate host specificity and population dynamics among isolates associated primarily from perennial ryegrass and kikuyugrass since the disease emerged at similar times in California. We also obtained isolates from additional hosts (tall fescue, St. Augustinegrass, weeping lovegrass, and rice) and from the eastern United States for comparative purposes. A total of 38 polymorphic amplified fragment length polymorphism makers were scored from 450 isolates which clustered by host with high bootstrap support (71 to 100%). Genetic structure between kikuyugrass and perennial ryegrass isolates differed significantly. Isolates from kikuyugrass were genotypically diverse (n = 34), possessed both mating types, and some tests for random mating could not be rejected, whereas isolates from perennial ryegrass were less genotypically diverse (n = 10) and only consisted of a single mating type. Low genotypic diversity was also found among the other host specific isolates which also only consisted of a single mating type. This is the first study to document evidence for the potential of sexual reproduction to occur in M. grisea isolates not associated with rice (Oryza sativa). Moreover, given the significant host specificity and contrasting genetic structures between turfgrass-associated isolates, the recent emergence of GLS on various grass hosts in California suggests that potential cultural practices or environmental changes have become conducive for the disease and that the primary inoculum may have already been present in the state, despite the fact that two genotypes associated with perennial ryegrass and St. Augustinegrass in California were the same as isolates collected from the eastern United States.

Monitoring of agricultural area trend in Tabuk region – Saudi Arabia using Landsat TM and SPOT data

The main objective of this study is to monitor and assess the agricultural land use changes through the period from 1988 to 2008 using the Landsat TM 5 and SPOT 5 imagery along with laboratory and field works. The analysis of the classified satellite images indicated a considerable increase in the spatial extents of the agricultural land use. The spatial extents of the agricultural areas have increased by 10% during the period from 1988 to 2008. This increase had basically occurred on the expense of the bare soils. The results of this research imply the possibility of using the multi-temporal satellite data for understanding the interchange of the agricultural land use with the surrounding bare areas for the purpose of modeling the potential environmental changes in the future in one of the most important agricultural area in Saudi Arabia.

高レベル放射性廃棄物地層処分における性能評価のための隆起・浸食に起因する地質環境条件変化の評価方法の検討

高レベル放射性廃棄物地層処分における性能評価のための隆起・浸食に起因する地質環境条件変化の評価方法の検討

Environmental impacts of tidal power schemes

This paper describes the potential environmental changes caused by tidal power installations with illustration for schemes in the eastern Irish Sea, focusing mainly on major estuarine barrages. The generic impacts in the near-field and far-field are discussed. Results from a zero-dimensional and a two-dimensional model are presented: the former allows rapid calculations to be made for a large range of options while the latter allows the full effect on two-dimensional hydrodynamics to be investigated. It is shown that there may be a significant change in tidal amplitude at the coast of Northern Ireland. The bed stress in the Bristol Channel will be significantly reduced if a Severn barrage is constructed. Some effects on the tidal mixing are expected although the location of tidal fronts in the Irish and Celtic Seas will not be changed significantly. The largest environmental impact is expected to be on the amount of inter-tidal area retained after construction of an estuarine barrage. It is shown that the loss of mudflats can be substantially reduced by using a dual-mode (ebb and flood generation) scheme with an increased number of turbines over the lowest-cost option.

Influencia de los cambios climáticos en las poblaciones de abejas y sus enfermedades

The European honey bee, Apis mellifera, is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide. Bees are also crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator. Apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive potential, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates. In a context of climate change, the variability of the honey bee's life-history traits as regards temperature and the environment shows that the species possesses such plasticity and genetic variability that this could give rise to the selection of development cycles suited to new environmental conditions. Although we do not know the precise impact of potential environmental changes on honey bees as a result of climate change, there is a large body of data at our disposal indicating that environmental changes have a direct influence on honey bee development. In this article, the authors examine the potential impact of climate change on honey bee behaviour, physiology and distribution, as well as on the evolution of the honey bee's interaction with diseases. Conservation measures will be needed to prevent the loss of this rich genetic diversity of honey bees and to preserve ecotypes that are so valuable for world biodiversity.

Sustainable tourism development in remote regions? Questions arising from research in the North Kimberley, Australia

This paper is concerned with the sustainable development of a self-drive tourist destination in the remote region in Northern Australia. It first compares officially used data on visitor profiles to the information collected in the survey. Differences between data collected and available secondary data imply that tourism planning should include collection of region-specific tourism information to guide and mitigate potential environmental changes. Natural landscape features are the key attraction for visitors to the region. Visitor satisfaction levels with the current state of the destination are high. However, local residents reported perceived negative impacts of tourism, in particular on amenities and the ecology of the landscape. Visitors also reported behavior that might contribute to environmental impacts. Implications of the findings, in the context of future destination planning, are discussed.

Agriculture land use changes and the dynamics of climate system: A sustainable approach

Atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns and their subsequent involvement within the planet’s climate are dynamic, variable and difficult to predict. This limits the ability to predict the impact of land-use change and landscape dynamics on climate patterns. As a result, manipulating land-surface conditions for the purpose of carbon sequestration under the Kyoto Protocol could have a variety of unanticipated impacts on global and regional climate (Dobo, 2006, Jolankai, 2005). The Kyoto Protocol uses only the GWPs of the regulated greenhouse-gas molecules listed in its Annex A as its mitigation currency. A more complete indication of human contributions to climate change will require the climatic influences of land-surface conditions and other processes to be factored into climate-change-mitigation strategies. Many of these processes will have strong regional effects that are not represented in a globally averaged metric (Czovek et al, 2006, Tamas et al. 2005). The currency of global and regional human-caused changes in terms of a regional climate change potential could offer a new metric useful for developing a more inclusive protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a way to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.

Improving the School Food Environment: Results from a Pilot Study in Middle Schools

Our objective for this study was to examine the feasibility of instituting environmental changes during a 6-week pilot in school foodservice programs, with long-term goals of improving dietary quality and preventing obesity and type 2 diabetes in youth. Participants included students and staff from six middle schools in three states. Formative assessment with students and school staff was conducted in the spring of 2003 to inform the development of school foodservice policy changes. Thirteen potential policy goals were delineated. These formed the basis for the environmental change pilot intervention implemented during the winter/spring of 2004. Questionnaires were used to assess the extent to which the 13 foodservice goals were achieved. Success was defined as achieving 75% of goals not met at baseline. Daily data were collected on goal achievement using the schools’ daily food production and sales records. Qualitative data were also collected after the pilot study to obtain feedback from students and staff. Formative research with staff and students identified potential environmental changes. Most schools made substantial changes in the National School Lunch Program meal and snack bar/a la carte offerings. Vending goals were least likely to be achieved. Only one school did not meet the 75% goal achievement objective. Based on the objective data as well as qualitative feedback from student focus groups and interviews with students and school staff, healthful school foodservice changes in the cafeteria and snack bar can be implemented and were acceptable to the staff and students. Implementing longer-term and more ambitious changes and assessing cost issues and the potential enduring impact of these changes on student dietary change and disease risk reduction merits investigation.

Characterization of groundwater temperature obtained from the Korean national groundwater monitoring stations: Implications for heat pumps

Summary Groundwater is being now seriously considered as heat sources for space heating and cooling in Korea. This study evaluated groundwater temperature data obtained from 266 Korean national groundwater monitoring stations. Spatial distribution of the groundwater temperatures is mainly affected by geographical latitude, air temperature, and local topographic elevations. The distribution pattern for the groundwater temperatures is most similar to that of the air temperature. Annual variations of the groundwater temperatures were classified into four main patterns. The P (periodic) type representing periodic annual variation was mainly found in shallow groundwaters (62.5%). Most peculiar is F (flat) type, in which the groundwater temperatures showed nearly no variation, and was mostly observed in deep wells (47.9%). Water levels are seemingly related to the classifications. Water levels of P or WP (weak periodic) types were shallowest while those of F type were deepest. Magnitude of annual temperature variation was within 8 °C for 76.6% of the shallow wells while 97.1% account for the variation within 8 °C in the deep wells. The highest groundwater temperatures mostly occurred in the coldest months (November–February) and the lowest temperatures in March–June, immediately before the hottest months (July–August). A simple exponential relationship between the amplitude and the phase difference with respect to the air temperature was found, which indicates propagation of the air temperature mainly due to conduction. Considering stability of groundwater temperatures, F type in bedrock aquifers appeared most suitable for the heat pumps in respect to efficient system design and maintenance. For practical application of the groundwater heat pumps, detailed investigation of hydrogeologic conditions and potential environmental changes is required.

Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

Abstract. The relationships between rainfall, hydrology and landslide movement are often difficult to establish. In this context, ground-water flow analyses and dynamic modelling can help to clarify these complex relations, simulate the landslide hydrological behaviour in real or hypothetical situations, and help to forecast future scenarios based on environmental change. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of including more temporal and spatial information in landslide hydrology forecasting, by using a physically based spatially distributed model. Results of the hydrological and geomorphological investigation of the Super-Sauze earthflow, one of the persistently active landslide occurring in clay-rich material of the French Alps, are presented. Field surveys, continuous monitoring and interpretation of the data have shown that, in such material, the groundwater level fluctuates on a seasonal time scale, with a strong influence of the unsaturated zone. Therefore a coupled unsaturated/saturated model, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, fissure flow and meltwater flow is needed to adequately represent the landslide hydrology. The conceptual model is implemented in a 2.5-D spatially distributed hydrological model. The model is calibrated and validated on a multi-parameters database acquired on the site since 1997. The complex time-dependent and three-dimensional groundwater regime is well described, in both the short- and long-term. The hydrological model is used to forecast the future hydrological behaviour of the earthflow in response to potential environmental changes.

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.

Environmental change and supply chain management: a multi‐case study exploration of the impact of Y2000

As businesses worked towards Y2000 compliancy and checked their sources of supply, the mechanisms and nature of relationships in the supply chain were exposed. A multi‐case study methodology of four UK‐based SMEs and one large multinational company was undertaken to exploit this time‐window. Although the Y2000 problem was to some extent unique, it is only one of many potential environmental changes that organisations, particularly businesses, have to respond to in the rapidly changing future. Thus any lessons that can be learned from studying this event could provide useful information for future significant environmental changes; changes to trading and market environments; changes to employment law. Whilst the terms “supply chain” and “supply chain management” are universally adopted, their meaning and actual application is less certain. This paper explores the limited but diverse multidisciplinary literature and the “theory/practice” gap in the area of supply chain management and the impact on the supply chain of preparing for the Year 2000.

Seasonal flooding, soil salinity and primary production in northern prairie marshes

Hydrologic regime is an important control of primary production in wetland ecosystems. I investigated the coupling of flooding, soil salinity and plant production in northern prairie marshes that experience shallow spring flooding. Field experiments compared whitetop (Scolochloa festucacea) marsh that was: (1) nonflooded, (2) flooded during spring with 25 cm water and (3) nonflooded but irrigated with 1 cm water · day-1. Pot culture experiments examined whitetop growth response to salinity treatments. The electrical conductivity of soil interstitial water (ECe) at 15 cm depth was 4 to 8 dS· m-1 lower in flooded marsh compared with nonflooded marsh during 2 years. Whitetop aboveground biomass in flooded marsh (937 g · m-2, year 1; 969 g · m-2, year 2) exceeded that of nonflooded marsh (117 g · m-2 year 1; 475 g · m-2, year 2). Irrigated plots had lower ECe and higher aboveground biomass than nonflooded marsh. In pot culture, ECe of 4.3 dS · m-1 (3 g · L-1 NaCl) reduced total whitetop biomass by 29 to 44% and ECe of 21.6 dS · m-1 (15 g · L-1 NaCl) reduced biomass by more than 75%. Large reductions of ECe and increases of whitetop growth with irrigation indicated that plants responded to changes in soil salinity and not other potential environmental changes caused by inundation. The results suggest that spring flooding controls whitetop production by decreasing soil salinity during spring and by buffering surface soils against large increases of soil salinity after mid-summer water level declines. This mechanism can explain higher marsh plant production under more reducing flooded soil conditions and may be an important link between intermittent flooding and primary production in other wetland ecosystems.