Potential Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Climate Change Responses of High-Elevation Polylepis Forests

The high mountain forests on Earth are characterized by sharp environmental heterogeneity, high species endemism, and unique phenotypic adaptations. Yet, global warming is jeopardizing this ecosystem as no other as some forests may have nowhere to go beyond the mountain’s summits. One of the most human-endangered high-elevation ecosystems is the Polylepis forest. Despite its vulnerability, forecasting climate reactions in this distinctive high mountain forest type remains a formidable challenge. Therefore, in this study, we modeled climate change responses of high-elevation allopatric Polylepis sericea and P. quadrijuga (Rosaceae) in the northern Andes. The analysis took into account VIF-prioritized bioclimatic variables for near-to-present and future (2081–2100 MPI-ESM1-2-HR) conditions. Model selection was carried out following the AUC scores of 12 MaxEnt and six machine learning algorithms. Predictive power reached 0.97 for MaxEnt’s model fc.H_rm.1 (H-1). Results indicate a moderate vulnerability of P. sericea, with a 29% loss of area in the trailing edge, due to climate change for the period 2081–2100. On the other hand, P. quadrijuga is likely to experience even larger distribution losses, up to 99%, for the same period. The findings of this study suggest that P. quadrijuga, as compared to P. sericea, exhibits a restricted ability to maintain the corresponding habitat requirements in the face of climatic change. Higher niche specialization of P. quadrijuga in the environmentally heterogeneous Eastern Cordillera contrasts with the more generalist nature of P. sericea in the topographically less complex Central Cordillera. In addition to climate change, this trend may be exacerbated by the detrimental effects of agriculture, mining, and an expanding rural population, which represent significant human-driven pressures yet to be modeled in the northern Andean highlands. Yet, based on previous studies, the historical population dynamics during the past glacial cycles suggests that range shifts could play a more significant role at deeper time scales than previously forecasted in the species’ reaction to climate change. Additionally, Polylepis forests may be able to endure at the current locations via local adaptation and plasticity, major drivers of the phenotypic variation in long-lived trees, counteracting the vulnerability scenario under a niche conservatism hypothesis. Ultimately, the modeling procedure employed in this study provides insights into the potential effects of climate change on Polylepis forests 70 years from now. Oncoming studies may consider alternative responses inherent to the gene pool of the species and the interaction with edaphic and biotic agents. We advocate for the application of comparable estimations in other high-elevation tree communities found at the tree line.

Ecological niche variation drives morphological differentiation in tropical stream‐dwelling newts from Indochina

AbstractMorphological diversity within organisms can arise from factors other than genetic diversity alone. Local adaptations and combinations of various factors are also involved in shaping morphology. We investigated the relationship between morphological diversity and ecological niche divergence within two related tropical stream‐dwelling newt species from Indochina: Paramesotriton deloustali and P. guangxiensis. We identified sexual dimorphism within both species and a significantly larger body size in P. deloustali than in P. guangxiensis. Our findings highlighted that climatic variables strongly influence Asian warty newt distribution, indicating the potential effects of climate change on tropical newt populations. Furthermore, we identified significant intra‐ and interspecific morphological and niche differentiation across five populations of the two newt species, suggesting that newt morphology is responsive to environmental factors. A significant negative relationship was observed only between ecological niche similarity and geographic distance among various combinations of factors, indicating that the distinct morphology of the study species mirrors ecological adaptation.

New avenues for potentially seeking microbial responses to climate change beneath Antarctic ice shelves.

Several efforts have been undertaken to predict the response of microbes under climate change, mainly based on short-term microcosm experiments under forced conditions. A common concern is that manipulative experiments cannot properly simulate the response of microbes to climate change, which is a long-term evolutionary process. In this proof-of-concept study with a limited sample size, we demonstrate a novel approach yet to be fully explored in science for accessing genetic information from putative past marine microbes preserved under Antarctic ice shelves before the industrial revolution. This potentially allows us estimating evolutionary changes as exemplified in our study. We advocate for gathering a more comprehensive Antarctic marine ice core data sets across various periods and sites. Such a data set would enable the establishment of a robust baseline, facilitating a better assessment of the potential effects of climate change on key genetic signatures of microbes.

A variety-specific analysis of climate change effects on California winegrapes.

California contains a broad geography over which climate conditions can be suitable for cultivating multiple varieties of winegrapes. However, climate change is projected to make winegrape cultivation more challenging across many of California's winegrowing regions. In order to understand the potential effects of climate change on winegrapes, this study models variety-specific phenology for six winegrape varieties and quantifies the change in phenology and viticulturally-important agroclimate metrics over 12 of California's American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) by the mid-21st century. Results show more rapid development for winegrapes with earlier budburst, flowering, veraison, and maturation across all varieties and AVAs. Cabernet Sauvignon shows the greatest change in phenology timing, while Chardonnay shows the least change. Likewise, the West Sonoma Coast AVA shows the greatest average change in phenology timing across varieties and development stages and Lodi AVA shows the least. Projected changes in agroclimatic metrics include an additional month of potentially damaging heat days (above 35°C) in some AVAs, and decreases in frost days. These results have implications for numerous factors related to viticultural production, including water resources management and crop yield and quality, and underscore the need for California winegrape growers to improve their resilience to climate change by adopting strategies such as increasing soil health and water use efficiency and selecting cultivars suited for future climate conditions. By conducting climate effects analyses at the variety-specific and AVA scale, important information is provided to the winegrowing industry at a resolution that can support decision-making towards resilience.

Potential climate-induced impacts on trade: the case of agricultural commodities and maritime chokepoints

This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a “logistics” model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of “iceberg trade costs”, (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints’ operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Leaf traits and leaf‐to‐air temperature differences in tropical plants suggest variability in thermoregulatory capacities across elevations

AbstractPlant thermoregulation is essential for understanding the potential effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This study provides evidence indicating variation of leaf functional traits and leaf‐to‐air temperature across the elevation gradient. These results support the existence of distinct plant adaptations for thermoregulation across different elevation zones.Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic range of the Mediterranean relict tree Liquidambar orientalis Mill

Climate change is anticipated to pose a significant danger to the habitats and spatial distribution of species in the Mediterranean region throughout the present century. The primary objective of this study was to predict the future geographic range of Liquidambar orientalis, commonly known as the oriental sweetgum under different climate change scenarios. This species is a relict riparian Mediterranean plant originating from the southwestern Anatolia region and Rhodos Island in Greece. To gain insights into the potential effects of climate change on the range of L. orientalis in the future, I used an ensemble modeling approach of species distribution models based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for the years 2035, 2055 and 2070). The models suggested that the level of precipitation during the wettest month has a crucial role in determining the occurrence of the oriental sweetgum tree. Future projections indicate that the oriental sweetgum will significantly contract its native distribution range due to warming and declining precipitation levels. The population of L. orientalis has previously undergone a decrease as a result of anthropogenic activity. Therefore, it is imperative to augment the degree of urgency in conservation endeavors for the oriental sweetgum species against the ramifications of human‐induced actions and the persistent effects of climate change.

Impact of flowering temperature on litchi yield under climate change: A case study in Taiwan

Litchi is a subtropical fruit tree that undergoes flower bud differentiation under low-temperature conditions. However, climate change has affected litchi production in Taiwan, causing litchi farmers to experience economic losses. This study explored the influence of flowering temperature on litchi yield under climate change in Taiwan by analyzing litchi production data from 2001 to 2020 and observation data from meteorological stations in litchi-producing areas. Historical observed data were used to construct several regression models relating temperature to yield, with the performance of the models used to determine critical temperature thresholds for litchi flower bud differentiation. Analytical climate data (CMIP5) were used to project yield changes in Taiwan’s litchi-producing regions under anticipated low-temperature conditions for the mid- (2036–2065) and late- (2071–2100) 21st century. The variable that exhibited the highest correlation with yield changes was the number of days with an average flowering temperature below 16 °C. The production yield, in terms of yield variation per hectare, is expected to decrease by 12 % to 35 % by the end of the 21st century (2071–2100). Given the projected decline in the number of cooler days due to climate change, existing litchi cultivars may become unsuitable for cultivation in production areas in southern Taiwan. Practical ImplicationsSome fruit trees require a period of low temperature before their flowering stage. Climate change is expected to cause warming of winter temperatures in Taiwan, which is likely to lead to reduced litchi flowering. The current study assessed the potential effects of climate change on litchi flowering in the future.Historical observed data were used to establish models, and critical temperature thresholds for litchi flowering were determined on the basis of model performance. Days with average temperatures below 16 °C exhibited the highest correlation with litchi yield among the tested thresholds. According to our results, farmers can use this 16 °C threshold to evaluate the potential effects of future climate change at their current farm locations and to identify other areas with similar or more favorable conditions for litchi cultivation. For agricultural researchers, this temperature threshold could provide a target for new litchi variety breeding and a reference basis for research on optimal cultivation methods.Notably, because climate change projection data have a high degree of uncertainty, the results of this study may differ from those of studies using different databases. In this study, we used an ensemble of CMIP5 projections incorporating data from models from various research centers around the world, which can provide more robust results based on an ensemble mean than those obtainable from a single model or a few models. In addition, rainfall is a crucial factor during the flowering growth stage. Future studies should consider the effects of rainfall and temperature on yield and should consider using a model with yield being considered a function of both of these variables to improve model accuracy.To conclude, the present study provides researchers, policymakers, and other stakeholders with insights into the primary effects of climate change on litchi production. It also lays the groundwork for future climate adaptation strategies in Taiwan’s litchi industry.

De novo domestication: what about the weeds?

Most high-yielding crops are susceptible to abiotic and biotic stresses, making them particularly vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change. A possible alternative is to accelerate the domestication of wild plants that are already tolerant to harsh conditions and to increase their yields by methods such as gene editing. We foresee that crops' wild progenitors could potentially compete with the resulting de novo domesticated plants, reducing yields. To improve the recognition of weeds, we propose using gene editing techniques to introduce traits into de novo domesticated crops that will allow for visual recognition of the crops by weeding robots that have been trained by machine learning.

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia.

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Shifts in grasses diversity patterns between two contrasting 40‐year climate periods in tropical dry islands

AbstractGrasses are one of the most successful and dispersed plant families worldwide and their environmental and economic values are widely acknowledged. They dominate the landscape of Cabo Verde, the southernmost and driest archipelago of Macaronesia, and are relevant natural resources for local populations, but a comprehensive evaluation of their distribution patterns is still lacking. In this study, we aim to evaluate the potential effects of climate change using the long‐term data concerning grass distribution in Cabo Verde and the widely recognized climatic variability of this archipelago, which entails a huge irregularity in spatial and temporal rainfall. We identified two contrasting climatic periods (wet, from 1929 to 1968, and dry, from 1969 to 2007) and gathered all the information available from the bibliography, herbaria, and fieldwork concerning spontaneous grass species recorded in Cabo Verde during those two periods, which amounted to 107 taxa. This information was then used to disclose the patterns of grass diversity as related to climatic and topographic variables (altitude and windward vs. leeward aspects). Different altitudinal shifts in the distribution patterns of grass species assemblages and an assemblage specific to the wet period were revealed by comparing the two climatic periods. The role of exposure in delimiting the altitudinal distribution of the various assemblages was highlighted; the trade winds clearly determine the distribution of grass assemblages. We detected shifts in the distribution of grass assemblages according to the climatic periods (related to the macroclimate) and local topographic factors (associated with mesoclimates). Also, functional traits (i.e., annuals vs. perennials, C3 vs. C4 grasses, and tropical vs. temperate species) were found to vary between wet and dry periods, as well as with altitude and with slope aspect. Understanding species distributions and the role of the climatic variability of Cabo Verde is crucial to predicting how climate change will affect them and thus to support effective management and conservation actions.

Bespoke climate indicators for the Swedish energy sector − a stakeholder focused approach

Climate change concerns the energy sector to a high degree because the sector is sensitive both to changing conditions for power and heat production, and to changing demand for electricity, heating and cooling. In this study potential consequences of climate change on different parts of the Swedish energy sector were assessed in a series of workshops, where climate and energy scientists, energy systems experts and analysts met with representatives of the energy sector to assess the vulnerability of the sector and consider what climate indicators could be used to assess impacts of relevance.The impact of climate change depends on the energy type. Hydropower, for which production is naturally linked to weather and climate, is significantly impacted by climate change. For other forms of production, such as nuclear power, other factors such as e.g. policy and technology development are more important. The series of workshops held in this study, where different aspects of climate change and consequences were discussed, proved very successful and has increased our understanding of climate impacts on the energy system.

A CMIP6 multi-model based analysis of potential climate change effects on watershed runoff using SWAT model: A case study of kunhar river basin, Pakistan

The hydrological regimes of watersheds might be drastically altered by climate change, a majority of Pakistan's watersheds are experiencing problems with water quality and quantity as a result precipitation changes and temperature, necessitating evaluation and alterations to management strategies. In this study, the regional water security in northern Pakistan is examined about anthropogenic climate change on runoff in the Kunhar River Basin (KRB), a typical river in northern Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) and flow durarion curve (FDC). Nine general circulation models (GCMs) were successfully utilized following bias correction under two latest IPCC shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. Correlation coefficients (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), and the Percent Bias (PBIAS) are all above 0.75. The conclusions demonstrate that the SWAT model precisely simulates the runoff process in the KRB on monthly and daily timescales. For the two emission scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the mean annual precipitation is predicted to rise by 3.08 % and 5.86 %, respectively, compared to the 1980–2015 baseline. The forecasted rise in mean daily high temperatures is expected to range from 2.08 °C to 3.07 °C, while the anticipated increase in mean daily low temperatures is projected to fall within the range of 2.09 °C–3.39 °C, spanning the years 2020–2099. Under the two SSPs scenarios, annual runoff is estimated to increase by 5.47 % and 7.60 % due to climate change during the same period. Future socioeconomic growth will be supported by a sufficient water supply made possible by the rise in runoff. However, because of climate change, there is a greater possibility of flooding because of increases in both rainfall and runoff. As a result, flood control and development plans for KRB must consider the climate change's possible effects. There is a chance that the peak flow will move backwards relative to the baseline.

Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy

CONTEXTPasture dynamics of Alpine areas are linked to the complex cryospheric hydrology of Alpine catchment and to the interspecies competition, which are in turn expected to change remarkably under prospective global warming scenarios. OBJECTIVEThis study aimed at assessing the impact of climate change on the productivity of mountain pastures in the Gran Paradiso National Park (Italy). METHODSThe hydrological model Poli-Hydro was used, coupled with the Poli-Pasture model, able to simulate pasture growth, which was further integrated with CoSMo model to consider interspecific competition. Two (competing) species were chosen for low altitude LowAlt areas (below 1800 m asl), Trifolium alpinum and Dactylis glomerata, and two for high altitude HighAlt areas (above 1800 m asl), Festuca rubra and Nardus stricta. Model tuning and evaluation were performed against estimates of leaf area index (LAI), derived from satellite imagery during 2005–2019. Then, climate change impacts were projected until 2100 by considering four IPCC AR6 scenarios and six GCMs. Target variables included a set of agroclimatic indices, LAI and pasture yield. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSDue to the projected increase in temperatures during the XXI century, a measurable potential increase in productivity would be expected, especially in the highest areas (up to +97% by 2050, and + 123% by 2100 for the SSP5–8.5 scenario). The relative abundance of pasture species appears to remain mostly stable; at most, the species with higher fodder value even increases slightly. This suggests that a loss in the overall quality of biomass should not occur. These results provide preliminary evidence for the potential development of livestock farming, and thus of a relevant part of the economy in the valleys, at higher altitudes than now. However, to a certain extent pasture performance could be threatened by the projected reduction in summer rainfall, and possibly spreading of pests with increasing temperature. SIGNIFICANCEThe results obtained here could be useful for policy makers, and scientists in the field of pasture/grasslands management, to depict scenarios of future productivity, and to support redefinition of periods, and areas designated for grazing activities in the mountains.

What if there is no further south to go: Assessing the vulnerability of Nacella species to climate change

In the current context of climate change, southern South America and the Southern Ocean are undergoing profound environmental transformations that impose challenges to marine species. Shifts in species distribution ranges will occur through expansions or contractions of the range edges. Invertebrates such as Nacella spp., that being template-cold water species, will be more vulnerable to increasing temperature and will therefore suffer range contraction as temperatures increase southward. To understand the future of this sensitive group of gastropods, the potential impact of future climate on the distribution ranges of six species of the genus Nacella was studied using ensemble ecological niche models and representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that all the species studied will undergo a shift in their distribution in response to the projected changes in climate with a decline in habitat suitability. Particularly, the species will lose suitable areas mainly in the northern edge of their current distribution. Nevertheless, the species may not change their distribution equally. Our study suggests that N. magellanica, N. clypeater, and N. concinna appear to exhibit vulnerability, albeit with potentially lesser impact. Nacella magellanica is the limpet that shows the least distribution change in 2100. Both species, N. clypeater and N. concinna, will move southward while the Antarctic species will expand their distribution to other Antarctic areas. The most significant impact is expected for three Magellanic species (N. deaurata, N. flammea, and N. mytilina), currently distributed across the southern tip of South America. With restricted geographical ranges, these species face increased vulnerability to habitat loss as they cannot migrate southward. This comprehensive analysis offers invaluable insights into how Nacella species could tackle the challenges of climate change. The emphasis on specific species' vulnerabilities and the differential impacts on their distribution enhances our understanding of the potential consequences of climate change in the studied region. Furthermore, it will aid in formulating effective conservation and management strategies to protect Antarctic and sub-Antarctic ecosystems.

Climate change and the future of medicinal plants research

Due to their pharmaceutical properties and secondary metabolites, medicinal plants have played a crucial role in alleviating human suffering from various illnesses, disorders, and diseases. Along with other natural and artificial disasters, rapid climate change is one of the critical causes of the decline in wild medicinal plant species. Therefore, considering their significance in traditional medicine practices and economic value, investigating the potential consequences of climate change on medicinal plants is specifically relevant. This review aimed to investigate the diversity of species of medicinal plants within current climate scenarios. Additionally, it assesses the potential implications of climate change on the projected distribution of these species in subsequent scenarios and evaluates the possible impacts of these changes on the trajectory of future research in medicinal plants. The distribution and life cycles of all vegetation, including medicinal plants, are significantly impacted by climate change. Additionally, future climate scenarios have been shown to affect the physiological performance of all vegetation worldwide. Various aspects related to climate change and its repercussions on medicinal plants are explored including the impact of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) levels, the effect of low temperature (Cold), climate warming, drought on the production of secondary metabolites, impact of threats on medicinal plants, and phenological changes. Each of these environmental factors influences the productivity and quality of different products and components of medicinal plants, either positively or negatively. Consequently, there is excellent complexity surrounding how climate change affects medicinal plants. Thus, for human survival on Earth, future researchers should carefully examine the interactions of various direct and indirect causes and their corresponding effects. Keywords: Secondary metabolites, Climate change, medicinal plants, Phenology.

Agro-climatic zone-wise drought hazards in Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios

This study performed the spatio-temporal analysis of drought hazards across the agro-climatic zones (ACZs) of Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios. The India Meteorological Department’s high-resolution gridded data for1989-2019 was used for historical drought occurrence analysis. Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment ensemble data of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for analysing future drought hazards in the near (2031-2060) and end term (2061-2099) periods. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) was used to calculate the frequency of droughts at different accumulation periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Subsequently, the ACZ-wise drought hazard index (DHI) was calculated and mapped geospatially using ArcGIS. The results indicated that moderate drought events have the highest frequencies of occurrence, followed by severe and extreme drought events for all accumulation periods. During 1989-2019, 54.8%, 28.3% and 16.7% of droughts were moderate, severe, and extreme, respectively. An increase of 2.6% and 2.4% in the frequency of moderate droughts is projected under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the end term. Under both historical and future climate scenarios, a high frequency of extreme droughts was observed in the long accumulation periods (SPI-9 and SPI-12), whereas the frequency of moderate droughts was observed to be high in the short accumulation periods (SPI-1 and SPI-3). Under the historical scenario, the frequency of droughts in the extreme category was high in the southern transition, central dry, and north eastern dry zones, severe category in the northern dry, southern transition, and coastal zones, and moderate category in the north transition, hill, and southern dry zones. Among the 30 districts of Karnataka, Chitradurga, Udupi, Tumakuru, Ballari, Koppala, Raichuruand Gadaga districts have very high DHI. This study sheds light on the potential consequences of climate change on drought scenarios in the Karnataka state’s agro-climate zones and urges for zone specific drought adaptation and mitigation strategies to strengthen the State resilience.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases.

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

Analysis of climate change impacts on the biogeographical patterns of species-specific productivity of socioeconomically important edible fungi in Mediterranean forest ecosystems

In Mediterranean forests, many species of fungi produce fruiting bodies every autumn, some of which are of great social and economic interest as NTFPs. In addition, these fungi are an essential part of the biodiversity network that ensures the proper functioning of natural ecosystems and that is currently in check due to global change. Therefore, understanding the biogeographic patterns of species-specific fungal productivity is fundamental to anticipate possible changes in the socioeconomic value of our forests and to understand the role they play in the functioning of ecosystems in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In this study we estimate the future impact of climate change (in Catalonia region, between 2023 and 2100) on five fungal species with high socioeconomic interest in a broad bioclimatic gradient representative of the Mediterranean basin using high resolution at the landscape scale. To achieve this, we use predictive models based on machine learning algorithms and a fungal database resulting from the sampling of more than 100 permanent sampling plots over 20 years. We estimate that current and future productivity patterns differ among species, under different climate change scenarios and bioclimatic regions. Our results suggest that optimal productivity areas may be shifted to higher elevations, making those species with higher productivity at higher elevations the most affected by climate change. This would mean that some species with high socioeconomic value, such as Lactarius deliciosus and Boletus edulis, could be negatively affected in their total productivity in the study area. This study highlights the need to anticipate the potential effects of climate change on fungal productivity and in particular on high socioeconomic value species and to develop management policies oriented to maintain the important role of fungi in natural ecosystems.

Space–Time Characterization of Extreme Precipitation Indices for the Semiarid Region of Brazil

Various indices of climate variability and extremes are extensively employed to characterize potential effects of climate change. Particularly, the semiarid region of Brazil is influenced by adverse effects of these changes, especially in terms of precipitation. In this context, the main objective of the present study was to characterize the regional trends of extreme precipitation indices in the semiarid region of Brazil (SAB), using daily precipitation data from the IMERG V06 product, spanning the period from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2020. Twelve extreme precipitation indices were considered, which were estimated annually, and their spatial and temporal trends were subsequently analyzed using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope. The analysis revealed that the peripheral areas of the SAB, especially in the northwest and extreme south regions, exhibited higher intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events compared to the central portion of the area. However, a negative trend in event intensity was noted in the north, while positive trends were identified in the south. The frequency of extreme events showed a predominance of negative trends across most of the region, with an increase in consecutive dry days particularly throughout the western SAB. The average total precipitation index was above 1000 mm in the north of the SAB, whereas in the central region, the precipitation averages were predominantly below 600 mm, with rainfall intensity values ranging between 6 and 10 mm/day. Over the span of 20 years, the region underwent an average of 40 consecutive dry days in certain localities. A negative trend was observed in most of the indices, indicating a reduction in precipitation intensity in future decades, with variations in some indices. The dry years observed towards the end of the analyzed period likely contributed to the observed negative trends in the majority of extreme precipitation indices. Such trends directly impact the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in the SAB. The study is important for highlighting and considering the impacts of changes in precipitation extremes in the semiarid region of Brazil. Based on the obtained results, we advocate the implementation of public policies to address future challenges, such as incorporating adaptations in water resource management, sustainable agricultural practices, and planning for urban and rural areas.