Potential Distribution Of Species Research Articles

Using proxy data and vegetation modelling to predict past, current and future distributional shifts of Butea monosperma, a marker of land degradation in India

Extensive deviations in spatio-temporal social and environmental dynamics currently alter the health of ecosystems and the services they provide. Detecting the causes that contribute to the distribution of a natural forest species capable of restoring the lost ecosystem function and productivity will aid in determining better food security, livelihoods and provision of ecosystem goods and services. We modelled the spatial range of Butea monosperma (B. monosperma) under past, that is, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Middle Holocene (MH), current and future (2070) climatic scenarios with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) trained on present-day occurrences. We identified areas of suitable habitats for which the estimation of habitat stability is predicted in all the models at different times. To validate the inferred suitable habitat, we tested the model by the current occurrence and fossil pollen data of B. monosperma. Our distribution models agree with the fossil pollen records for the MH (4,500–7,000 yr BP) and predict the prevalence of B. monosperma covering 84.22% of the Indian subcontinent with maximum habitat stability in western and southwestern India (10.95%). The widespread potential distribution of the plant species during the LGM supports the presence of the last remnants of tropical dry deciduous forest in the region. However, a decline in habitat suitability (62.84%) is predicted under current and future climatic scenarios with maximum stability (0.90%–3.09%) along the Western Ghats, Nilgiri hills, Gir range in the western India and north-eastern region covering the Assam Valley and foothills of Tripura and Mizo hills. Temperature seasonality (33.6%) measured in terms of variable contribution in MaxEnt model significantly affects the distribution shift of B. monosperma, along with annual precipitation (22.8%) and annual mean temperature (16.2%). Model results provide evidence of habitat reduction and identify the stability hotspots for B. monosperma for its conservation and establishment of land management policies mainly for the dry tropics.

A novel hybrid model for species distribution prediction using neural networks and Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm

Neural networks are frequently employed to model species distribution through backpropagation methods, known as backpropagation neural networks (BPNN). However, the complex structure of BPNN introduces parameter settings challenges, such as the determination of connection weights, which can affect the accuracy of model simulation. In this paper, we integrated the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm, renowned for its excellent global search capacity and rapid convergence, to enhance the performance of BPNN. Then we obtained a novel hybrid algorithm, the Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm optimized backpropagation neural networks algorithm (GNNA), designed for predicting species’ potential distribution. We also compared the GNNA with four prevalent species distribution models (SDMs), namely the generalized boosting model (GBM), generalized linear model (GLM), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and random forest (RF). These models were evaluated using three evaluation metrics: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Cohen’s kappa, and the true skill statistic, across 23 varied species. Additionally, we examined the predictive accuracy concerning spatial distribution. The results showed that the predictive performance of GNNA was significantly improved compared to BPNN, was significantly better than that of GLM and GBM, and was even comparable to that of MaxEnt and RF in predicting species distributions with small sample sizes. Furthermore, the GNNA demonstrates exceptional powers in forecasting the potential non-native distribution of invasive plant species.

Impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species of lowland high and low in the Amazon

The areas of Amazonian floodplains have added ecological value to their multiple ecosystem services, including water supply, local climate regulation, biodiversity with a marked number of endemic species, and diversity of micro-habitat. Considering the importance of conserving these environments, this study aimed to analyze the behavior and delimit the areas of the natural distribution of forest species Alchornea castaneifolia (Willd.) A. Juss and Laetia corymbulosa(lowland low), Maquira coriacea (H.Karst.) C.C. Berg (Moraceae), and Ocotea cymbarumKunth (high floodplain), besides evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on the future distribution inferring on its conservation. The potential species distribution was modeled using Environmental Modelling & Software, by employing algorithms such as Bioclim, Domain, Maximum Entropy, Random Forests, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The projections indicate that climate change threatens the occurrence of floodplain species. Under the SSP 585 scenario for both periods, the four species studied will lose areas of climatic adequacy until the end of the 21st century, especially in the Brazilian Amazon. The study shows the need to increase socio-environmental responsibility through conserving current protected areas in freshwater ecosystems and implementing new priority areas for conserving wetlands (Ramsar Sites) in the Amazon. Such measures are essential to ensure in situ conservation and protect them from habitat loss.

Conservation Challenges Imposed by Evolutionary History and Habitat Suitability Shifts of Endangered Freshwater Mussels under a Global Climate Change Scenario

Climate change and associated shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns have become an increasing concern as drivers of ongoing biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable, being both a biodiversity hotspot and a region very prone to desertification. Freshwater mussels are amongst the most threatened invertebrate taxa worldwide. Unio tumidiformis is an endemic and endangered species restricted to the southern Iberian Peninsula, living in temporary Mediterranean-type streams. Freshwater mussels need a fish host for successful larval transformation, meaning U. tumidiformis must belong to the genus Squalius. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the vulnerability of U. tumidiformis to climate change, by studying its population genetics and evolutionary history, its current and future habitat suitability, and that of its hosts. Genetic population structure and diversity were assessed using Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms through Genotyping by Sequencing and used to infer species evolutionary history. The species potential distribution was modeled using an ensemble forecasting approach, and future shifts in habitat suitability were assessed with the projected climate data layers from Worldclim. Most populations showed extreme genetic differentiation (Fst up to 0.745), even from close neighboring ones. Upper Guadiana populations were more diverse and less differentiated. We hypothesize that U. tumidiformis originated in Upper Guadiana and followed the same colonization routes as their hosts with numerous founder effects and bottlenecks. Our results also predicted a reduction of 99% of climatically suitable areas for U. tumidiformis in the Iberian Peninsula until 2040. For the fish hosts, a maximum 42% reduction in suitable areas was estimated throughout the century, with remaining adequate habitats in the north. Our results suggest that difficult conservation options are necessary, prioritizing the preservation of populations, translocations to the northern area of its historical range and stream engineering to increase resilience to droughts.

Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic distribution of the endemic Fritillaria aurea in Türkiye

Fritillaria aurea is a rare, high altitude, endemic, and bulbous plant species in Türkiye. Although it is classified as least concern according to IUCN criteria, the species has a narrow distribution. This study utilized ensemble modeling to forecast potential future changes in suitable habitats for F. aurea by two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs: SSP 1-2.6 and 5-8.5). These pathways were constructed using two General Circulation Models (GCMs) and covered the years 2035, 2055, and 2085. The results showed that the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) have the largest influence on the potential species distribution. The ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitats of F. aurea would contract under all future SSP scenarios and it would lose almost all of its potential highly suitable distribution areas by the end of the century. The remained population of F. aurea could possibly harbour in only minor areas of the North Anatolian Mountains in the north and Taurus Mountains in the south. The results of the study could contribute to establishing conservation strategies and natural resource management policies for F. aurea against the potential impacts of climate change. The highly suitable habitats under pessimistic scenarios at the end of this century projected by the present study can be determined as protected areas for the species.

Preserving the spots: Jaguar (Panthera onca) distribution and priority conservation areas in Colombia.

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is a charismatic species considered Vulnerable in Colombia but yet largely unknown in the country. The species is mostly threatened by the continuous decline in its habitats, mostly derived from deforestation and habitat loss, additional to hunting and conflicts with humans. Thus, the future of jaguars in Colombia depends on protecting and recovering existing habitats. The aims of this study were to 1) evaluate jaguar distribution and identify the remnant patches of habitat in Colombia, 2) define an ecological connectivity network within the country, and 3) propose a priority areas portfolio for the conservation and recovery of jaguars. We used a presence background model for estimating species potential distribution and subsequently identified remaining habitat patches across the country based on land cover and species-specific ecological attributes. We then created an ecological connectivity network based on circuit theory and following a multi-criteria approach identified jaguar priority areas for conservation (JPCA) and recovery (JPRA). Jaguar potential distribution comprises 1103122.43 km2, from which 56.71% maintain suitable patches of potential habitat. We identified 960 corridors between remnant patches of natural or semi-natural vegetation. Based on the criteria, JPCAs with greater importance were identified in each of the five Colombian regions. JPRAs were located mainly towards the Andean and Caribbean regions. These JPCAs and JPRAs could serve as a guide for designing and implementing management strategies for the long-term conservation and recovery of the species in Colombia.

Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health. We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070. Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health. Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades. German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.

Climatic niche modelling and genetic analyses highlight conservation priorities for the Spotted Softshell Turtle (Pelodiscus variegatus)

The Spotted Softshell Turtle (Pelodiscus variegatus) has been recognised since 2019 from Vietnam and Hainan Island, China, but little information about its population status and distribution range is currently available. The species has been provisionally listed as Critically Endangered by the Turtle and Tortoise Working Group, although the status has not been officially accepted by the IUCN, due to the threats the species is facing, including habitat loss and degradation, overexploitation for food, competition with other non-native softshell turtles and pollution. To identify conservation priority sites for P. variegatus in mainland Indochina, this study combines molecular analyses and species distribution modelling. Our results show that, in Vietnam, Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park has the largest suitable area and high probability of species occurrence, followed by Vu Quang National Park and Song Thanh and Ke Go Nature Reserves. In addition, the central provinces, from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue in Vietnam, constitute a key part of the species distribution and should be prioritised for conservation actions. According to the study’s findings, although P. variegatus is possibly found in Laos, the probability decreases sharply at the border between both countries and there is also a gap in the occurrence of wetlands, arguing for strong natural barriers. Unfortunately, to date, only part of the species potential distribution is protected, while no records are known from protected areas, highlighting the need for extended or even new reserves. To recover natural populations of the species and following the IUCN’s One Plan Approach to Conservation, breeding programmes have been established in Vietnam with a potential to expand to other facilities in the country and abroad. Once suitable sites are identified, offspring can be released into the protected areas to improve the current conservation status of this highly-threatened softshell turtle.

The use of an integrated framework combining eco-evolutionary data and species distribution models to predict range shifts of species under changing climates

Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools that can predict potential distributions of species under climate change. However, traditional SDMs that rely on current species occurrences may underestimate their climatic tolerances and potential distributions. To address this limitation, we developed an integrated framework that incorporates eco-evolutionary data into SDMs. In our approach, the fundamental niches of species are constructed by their realized niches in different periods, and those fundamental niches are used to predict potential distributions of species. Our framework includes multiple phylogenetic analyses, such as niche evolution rate estimation and ancestral area reconstruction. These analyses provide deeper insights into the responses of species to climate change. We applied our approach to the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex to evaluate its efficacy through comprehensive performance evaluations and validation tests. Our framework can be applied broadly to species with available phylogenetic data and occurrence records, making it a valuable tool for understanding species adaptation in a rapidly changing world.•Integrating the niches of species in different periods estimates more complete climatic envelopes for them.•Combining eco-evolutionary data with SDMs predicts more comprehensive potential distributions of species under climate change.•Our framework provides a general procedure for species with phylogenetic data and occurrence records.

Multi-scale habitat modeling framework for predicting the potential distribution of sheep gastrointestinal nematodes across Iran’s three distinct climatic zones: a MaxEnt machine-learning algorithm

Ecological niche models (ENMs) serve as valuable tools in assessing the potential species distribution, identifying crucial habitat components for species associations, and facilitating conservation efforts. The current study aimed to investigate the gastrointestinal nematodes (GINs) infection in sheep, predict and analyze their ecological niches and ranges, and identify the key bioclimatic variables influencing their distribution across three distinct climatic regions in Iran. In a cross-sectional study, a total of 2140 fecal samples were collected from semi-arid (n = 800), arid (n = 500), and humid-subtropical (n = 840) climates in East Azerbaijan, Kerman, and Guilan provinces, respectively. The flotation method was employed to assess stool samples, whereby the fecal egg count (the number of parasite eggs per gram [EPG]) was ascertained for each individual specimen. Employing a presence-only approach, the multi-scale maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method was used to model GINs' habitat suitability using 93 selected points/locations. The findings revealed that Guilan (34.2%) and East Azerbaijan (19.62%) exhibited the utmost proportion of Strongyle-type eggs. East Azerbaijan province also displayed the highest proportion of Marshallagia and Nematodirus, respectively (approximately 40% and 27%), followed by Guilan and Kerman provinces, while Kerman province had the highest proportion of Trichuris (approximately 15%). Ecological niche modeling revealed that the precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17) exerted the most significant influence on Marshallagia, Nematodirus, Trichuris, and ُSُُُtrongyle-type eggs' presence in East Azerbaijan and Kerman provinces. For Guilan province, the most influential factor defining habitat suitability for Strongyle-type eggs, Marshallagia, and Nematodirus was increasing slope. Additionally, the distribution of Trichuris was most affected by the variable Bio2 in Guilan province. The study highlights the response of GINs to climate drivers in highly suitable regions, providing insights into ecologically favorable areas for GINs. In conclusion, this study provides a better understanding of GINs and the environmental factors influencing their transmission dynamics.

Modelling the Symphyotrichum lanceolatum invasion in Slovakia, Central Europe

AbstractSymphyotrichum lanceolatum (Willd.) G. L. Nesom is an alien invasive species in Europe, where it presents a potential threat to natural habitats. Its rapid expansion in recent decades raises questions and concerns about the causes and consequences of its spread in Slovakia. We investigated natural and anthropogenic habitats along with topographic and environmental factors, including changing climatic conditions such as air temperature and precipitation totals to adjust prediction models of the species distribution. Using 19 various algorithms, the models for the past, present, and future were calculated based on 395 octoploid populations selected by flow cytometry. The models revealed the potential species distribution along rivers and in human settlements and its increasing during the period 1970–2060 from 23.6 to 53.85% of the territory as a result of climatic change. A conditional inference tree indicates that the expansion can be limited by a mean annual air temperature below 8 °C and a pH of soil less than 5.5. Therefore, there is a high probability of the further spread of S. lanceolatum across Slovakia.

Modeling the potential distribution of the energy tree species Triadica sebifera in response to climate change in China

As an important woody oilseed species in China, Triadica sebifera is not only concerned with the substitution of traditional energy sources, but also plays a considerable role in coping with energy shortages. Accurately predicting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China and understanding its ecological needs are crucial for alleviating the energy crisis and effectively implementing energy substitution strategies. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera in China at contemporary and future periods was predicted based on the distribution data of Triadica sebifera in China and the environmental factor variables by Maxent model and ArcGIS software. The combination of important factors governing the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera was assessed by the contribution of environmental factor variables. The accuracy of Maxent model's predictions was assessed by AUC values, TSS values and Kappa statistics. The results show that: High AUC and TSS values indicate high accuracy and performance of the model. The crucial environmental factors limiting the potential geographic distribution of Triadica sebifera are the temperature factor (mean air temperature of the driest quarter), precipitation factor (precipitation of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month), and the intensity of human activities (hf). The total suitable area for Triadica sebifera is 233.64 × 104 km2, primarily located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Guangdong province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; its high suitability area is 30.89 × 104 km2, accounting for 13.22% of the total suitable area, mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Sichuan and Hunan provinces in the shape of a cake. Under the four typical greenhouse gas emission concentration patterns in the 2050s and 2070s, the areas of high and medium suitable areas for Triadica sebifera will increase, while the area of its low suitable area will decrease. However, the total suitable area will remain relatively unchanged. Its potential suitable habitats show a trend of shifting towards lower latitudes and southeast regions. The study predicted the pattern of Triadica sebifera under different climate change conditions, which can provide guidance for future cultivation of Triadica sebifera as well as for biofuel development and utilization.

Effects of climate on the distribution and conservation of commonly observed European earthworms.

Belowground biodiversity distribution does not necessarily reflect aboveground biodiversity patterns, but maps of soil biodiversity remain scarce because of limited data availability. Earthworms belong to the most thoroughly studied soil organisms and-in their role as ecosystem engineers-have a significant impact on ecosystem functioning. We used species distribution modeling (SDMs) and available data sets to map the spatial distribution of commonly observed (i.e., frequently recorded) earthworm species (Annelida, Oligochaeta) across Europe under current and future climate conditions. First, we predicted potential species distributions with commonly used models (i.e., MaxEnt and Biomod) and estimated total species richness (i.e., number of species in a 5 × 5km grid cell). Second, we determined how much the different types of protected areas covered predicted earthworm richness and species ranges (i.e., distributions) by estimating the respective proportion of the range area. Earthworm species richness was high in central western Europe and low in northeastern Europe. This pattern was mainly associated with annual mean temperature and precipitation seasonality, but the importance of predictor variables to species occurrences varied among species. The geographical ranges of the majority of the earthworm species were predicted to shift to eastern Europe and partly decrease under future climate scenarios. Predicted current and future ranges were only poorly covered by protected areas, such as national parks. More than 80% of future earthworm ranges were on average not protected at all (mean [SD] = 82.6% [0.04]). Overall, our results emphasize the urgency of considering especially vulnerable earthworm species, as well as other soil organisms, in the design of nature conservation measures.

Biotic interactions vary across species' ranges and are likely conserved through geological time

AbstractAimThe evolutionary interactions between western spadefoot toads (genus Spea) represent a textbook example of character displacement, facilitated by dietary specialization of one Spea species on fairy shrimp (Anostraca) when all three co‐occur. The aim of this study is to understand the covariation between predator (Spea) and prey (Anostraca) range shifts in response to climate change oscillations, and whether biotic interactions can be used to project species distribution models on different time scales when studying species with dietary specialization. Taxon: Amphibia: Spea spp. and Crustacea: Anostraca.LocationNorth America.MethodsUsing multiple modelling techniques, we first estimated the potential distribution of central and western North American fairy shrimp species (Crustacea: Anostraca) and two western spadefoot toad species (Spea bombifrons and Spea multiplicata). We then created a shrimp species richness map by aggregating individual species estimates. Third, we studied the relationship between the probability of spadefoot toad presence and fairy shrimp species richness during the present and Last Glacial Maximum conditions. Finally, we estimated the strength and direction of the co‐occurrence between spadefoot toads and fairy shrimp sampled at the level of entire predicted range and at the regional level (allopatric and sympatric).ResultsFirst, the same abiotic environmental variables shape spadefoot toad and fairy shrimp species' distributions in central and western North America across time. Second, areas of sympatry of Spea bombifrons and Spea multiplicata correspond with dry conditions and higher shrimp richness. Finally, the spatial patterns of predator–prey co‐occurrence are highly variable across geography, forming a spatial mosaic over the species' ranges.Main ConclusionPredator–prey relationships form a spatial mosaic across geography and species ranges. Including biotic interactions into species distribution estimates for organisms with dietary specialization is highly recommended. Biotic interactions can be projected across different time frames for organisms with dietary specialization as they are likely conserved.

Mating system induced lags in rates of range expansion for different simulated mating systems and dispersal strategies: a modelling study

Mismatches between current and potential species distributions are commonplace due to lags in the response of populations to changing environmental conditions. The prevailing mating system may contribute to such lags where it leads to mating failure at the range edge, but how active dispersers might mitigate these lags using social information to inform dispersal strategies warrants greater exploration. We used an individual-based model to explore how different mating systems for species that actively search for habitat can impose a filter on the ability to colonise empty, fragmented landscapes, and explored how using social information during dispersal can mitigate the lags caused by more constrained mating systems. The mate-finding requirements implemented in two-sex models consistently led to slower range expansion compared to those that were not mate limited (i.e., female only models), even when mating was polygynous. A mate-search settlement strategy reduced the proportion of unmated females at the range edge but had little impact on rate of spread. In contrast, a negative density-dependent settlement strategy resulted in much faster spread, which could be explained by a greater number of long-distance dispersal events. Our findings suggest that even low rates of mating failure at the range edge can lead to considerable lags in range expansion, though dispersal strategies that favour colonising more distant, sparsely occupied habitat patches may effectively mitigate these lags.

The Protected Areas network may be insufficient to protect bird diversity in a fragmented tropical hotspot under different climate scenarios

We identified the 30% most-important forest remnants for conservation in the Atlantic Forest domain in South America based on three bird diversity components: (1) overall species potential distribution, (2) potential distribution of threatened species, and (3) diversity of functional traits. We evaluated the extent of overlap among priority areas using the different approaches and analysed the efficiency of the current Protected Areas network at protecting biodiversity in current and potential future (2040 and 2080) climate scenarios. The overlap among the most important areas is low among the different bird diversity components in all climate scenarios, and few changes were found in priority areas between the current and future scenario. The proportion of species that reached the minimum amount of their distribution areas protected varied from zero to 4% depending on the climate scenario and the species conservation status (threatened or not). Priority areas based on the potential distribution of threatened species were less correlated to areas based on the overall species potential distribution than to functional traits in all climate scenarios, suggesting that there might be considerable differences between species composition and their functionalities. Our analyses point out the main regions where resources should be allocated to conservation of birds in a mega-biodiversity region.

Species distribution modeling based on MaxEnt to inform biodiversity conservation in the Central Urban Area of Chongqing Municipality

Mainstreaming biodiversity into protection planning and management is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Species potential distribution modeling is an effective way for species diversity evaluation and biodiversity hotspots identification, which are crucial for biodiversity conservation. Taking the Central Urban Area of Chongqing Municipality as the study area, the main objectives of this study were to identify the potentially suitable habitats, species richness and biodiversity of key protected species in current and future, determine the relative contribution of environmental factors and assess the conservation effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) based on MaxEnt model and gap analysis. The results showed that the current potentially suitable habitats of total key protected species were mainly located in “two rivers and four mountains”, with a total area of 1610.55 km2, of which forestland accounted for 59.78 %. Species suitable habitats demonstrated clear topographic heterogeneity, and the distribution index decreased at first and then increased with increasing terrain niche index (TNI). Meanwhile, it was observed that key protected plants and birds shared similar suitable habitats in mountainous areas, with an overlapping area of 753.53 km2, and the high species richness covered 182.83 km2. In 2050, the future biodiversity hotspots would remain stable and increase steadily. In terms of the direction of centroid shift, the biodiversity hotspots would migrate to low latitude, low altitude and southeast by 8.34 km. The jackknife tests indicated that the potential distribution of key protected species was mainly determined by land use, mean diurnal range and TNI. Additionally, the problems of high protection gaps and low protection effectiveness coexisted in the existing PAs, with the overlapping area of the comprehensive biodiversity hotspots and the existing PAs was only 446.96 km2. Finally, suggestions for natural PAs system optimization and ecological protection were proposed. This study provides scientific supports for biodiversity conservation and efficient management.

Ecological niche modeling shed light on new insights of the speciation processes and historical distribution of Japanese fire-bellied newt Cynops pyrrhogaster (Amphibia: Urodela)

Environmental factors play vital roles in determining the range of organisms and application of selective pressures that drive their evolution. Investigation of how these ecological factors influence the diversification of species has long been a point of interest among ecologists. In this study, we used climate-based ecological niche models to project the suitable distributions of four main clades of Japanese fire-bellied newt Cynops pyrrhogaster at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene (MH), and the present. Then we tested hypotheses regarding ecological niche diversification and the processes of diversification among these clades. The potential distribution of the Northern clade encompassed the Tohoku and Kanto districts, along with the northeastern Chubu district. The Central clade had a potential distribution across the Chubu and Kinki districts, and northeastern Chugoku district. The range of the Western clade was projected to encompass Kyushu, Shikoku, the southern Kinki region, and western Chugoku. Finally, the projected distribution of the Southern clade was limited to the southern Kyushu district. The lack of equivalent niches among the tested pairs indicated the absence of ecological interchangeability among the clades. The results of a similarity test supported significant parapatric divergence of the Northern and Central clades from the remaining clades. On the other hand, the Western and Southern clades probably underwent divergence through an allopatric process. Our paleomodels suggest that the distribution of C. pyrrhogaster may have been reduced and fragmented along the coastal regions during the LGM. The distribution models for the MH estimated a suitable area larger than for the LGM, but smaller than predicted by the current distribution. Our findings serve as a warning that the potential distributions of species could be significantly influenced by future climate change.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Szechwan Rat Snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) and Its Response to Climate Change in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park.

Climate change is a significant driver of changes in the distribution patterns of species and poses a threat to biodiversity, potentially resulting in species extinctions. Investigating the potential distribution of rare and endangered species is crucial for understanding their responses to climate change and for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem management. The Szechwan rat snake (Euprepiophis perlacea) is an endemic and endangered species co-distributed with giant pandas, and studying its potential distribution contributes to a better understanding of the distribution pattern of endangered species. In this study, we confirmed seven presence points of this species in the Yingjing Area of the Giant Panda National Park, and selected eleven key factors to predict the potential distribution of E. perlacea under current and future scenarios using MaxEnt models. Our study consistently achieved AUC values exceeding 0.79, meeting the precision requirements of the models. The results indicated that the high potential distribution area of E. perlacea is mainly located near Yunwu mountain and the giant panda rewilding and reintroduction base, accounting for approximately 12% of the protected area. Moreover, we identified the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of E. perlacea as the distance from streams and the slope degree, with their contribution rates exceeding 41% and 31%, respectively. In comparison to the current scenario, the potential habitat range for E. perlacea did not show an overall reduction in the context of future climate scenarios. To ensure the long-term preservation of E. perlacea, it is advisable to validate its actual distribution based on the models' results. Particular attention should be given to safeguarding its core distribution areas and raising awareness among residents within the potential distribution range about the conservation of E. perlacea.

Predicting the response of three common subtropical tree species in China to climate change

IntroductionClimate is crucial factor influencing species distribution, and with global climate change, the potential geographic distribution of species will also alter. In this study, three subtropical tree species (Cunninghamia lanceolata, Pinus taiwanensis, and Quercus glauca) of great ecological values were selected as research objects.MethodsWe applied a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to predict their potential distributions under different climate scenarios in both present and future conditions based on 37 environmental factors. Jackknife test was used in key factors affecting species distribution. In addition, we explored the key environmental variables that affect their distributions and revealed the evolutionary patterns and migration trends of these tree species under future climate.ResultsThe main findings are as follows: (1) Winter temperature, winter precipitation, and annual temperature range are identified as the key environmental variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of the three tree species; moreover, precipitation-related factors have a greater impact than temperature-related factors; (2) Currently suitable habitats for these three tree species are primarily located in subtropical China with decreasing suitability from south to north; (3) Under future climate conditions, the area of potentially suitable habitat for C. lanceolata continues to expand, while P. taiwanensis and Q. glauca tend to experience a reduction due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time; and (4) The centroid of suitable habitat for C. lanceolata shifts northward under future climate change, while the centroid of P. taiwanensis and Q. glauca move southward along with shrinking suitable habitat area.DiscussionOur predictions highlight a high risk of habitat loss of Q. glauca under climate change, recommending management and conservation references for these three commonly used afforestation species under current and future climate change scenarios in China.