Potential Distribution Research Articles

Re-engineering and regulating molecular architecture of synthetic capsaicin for enhanced water-based degradation performance

Synthetic capsaicin, also known as pelargonic acid vanillylamide (PAVA), constitutes the primary component in riot control agents. Due to the propensity of PAVA agglomerated in aqueous environments, the interaction between the active site of PAVA molecular and catalyst was restricted, consequently reducing its degradation efficiency in water-based oxidizing agents. This study used a cationic surfactant, dodecyl trimethyl ammonium chloride (DTAC), in combination with KOH for the precise regulation and arrangement of PAVA molecules, resulting in the formation of a distinctive hydrophilic structure. This approach resolved its poor solubility in aqueous solutions while the relationship between solubility and degradation rate was obtained. The frontier orbital distribution and surface electrostatic potential distribution of PAVA molecular were predicted through first-principles calculation. The mechanism of PAVA solubilization was studied by 1H NMR techniques and infrared spectroscopy methods. The results showed that KOH substitutes the phenolic hydroxyl group “–OH” of PAVA, forming potassium phenoxide “–OK”, which enhanced the solubility of PAVA in water. Additionally, KOH might reduced the surface tension in the solution. It promotes the formation of the DTAC/PAVA complex micelle structure, which exhibited the PAVA agglomerates to exposing the catalytic activation reaction sites and accelerating the catalytic oxidation.

Assessing the impact of climate change on three Populus species in China: Distribution patterns and implications

Populus, one of the most extensively cultivated tree species in China, holds substantial potential for carbon sequestration potential and economic value. However, the effects of climate change on different Populus species remain unclear. Consequently, there is an urgency to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Populus under current and future climate scenarios. This study employed four ecological niche models and integrated data from multiple environmental sources to analyze the potential distribution patterns of three key Populus species—Populus tomentosa, Populus cathayana, and Populus lasiocarpa—under current and various future climate scenarios (2050, 2070, and 2090). Furthermore, the study identified the primary factors influencing their potential distribution. The occurrence of P. tomentosa was primarily influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Conversely, human population density was the most important factor for P. cathayana, showing strong positive effects on both P. tomentosa and P. cathayana occurrences. Soil total nitrogen had the strongest positive effect on P. lasiocarpa. The study found P. cathayana primarily in northern and northwestern China (105.45 × 104 km2), P. tomentosa in the northern and central regions (82.85 × 104 km2), and P. lasiocarpa in the southwest (49.17 × 104 km2). Under future climate scenarios, P. tomentosa and P. cathayana may shift towards higher latitudes, while P. lasiocarpa may shift towards lower latitudes. Future elevated temperatures are expected to positively affect Populus, especially P. tomentosa and P. lasiocarpa, thereby increasing their carbon sequestration capacity and carbon market value, which is maximized under a low-concentration scenario (SSP245). This study highlights the importance of climate change in Populus distribution and provides quantified potential distribution maps for three Populus species under current and future climate conditions in China. Based on the different adaptation strategies of Populus species to climate change, we recommend a "site-specific, categorical planting" approach to guide effective forest management practices in response to China's dual carbon goals.

Body Surface Potential Mapping during Ventricular Depolarization in Athletes with Prolonged PQ Interval after Exercise.

Prolongation of the PQ interval, generally associated with an atrioventricular conduction delay, may be related to changes in intraventricular impulse spreading. To assess, using body surface potential mapping (BSPM), the process of ventricular depolarization in athletes with prolonged PQ intervals at rest and after exercise. The study included 7 cross-country skiers with a PQ interval of more than 200 ms (Prolonged-PQ group) and 7 with a PQ interval of less than 200 ms (Normal-PQ group). The BSPM from 64 unipolar torso leads was performed before (Pre-Ex) and after the bicycle exercise test (Post-Ex). Body surface equipotential maps were analyzed during ventricular depolarization. The significance level was 5%. Compared to Normal-PQ athletes, the first and second periods of the stable position of cardiac potentials on the torso surface were longer, and the formation of the "saddle" potential distribution occurred later, at Pre-Ex, in Prolonged-PQ athletes. At Post-Ex, the Prolonged-PQ group showed a shortening of the first and second periods of stable potential distributions and a decrease in appearance time of the "saddle" phenomenon relative to Pre-Ex (to the values near to those of the Normal-PQ group). Additionally, at Post-Ex, the first inversion of potential distributions and the total duration of ventricular depolarization in Prolonged-PQ athletes decreased compared to Pre-Ex and with similar values in Normal-PQ athletes. Compared to Normal-PQ athletes, the second inversion was longer at Pre-Ex and Post-Ex in Prolonged-PQ athletes. Prolonged-PQ athletes had significant differences in the temporal characteristics of BSPM during ventricular depolarization both at rest and after exercise as compared to Normal-PQ athletes.

Spatio-Temporal Changes and Habitats of Rare and Endangered Species in Yunnan Province Based on MaxEnt Model

Biodiversity is crucial for ecosystem functioning, but it is rapidly declining due to human activities and climate change. Protecting biodiversity has become a key priority for global environmental conservation actions. Rare and endangered species have a great impact on the ecosystem, yet due to their limited survival capacity, they are more prone to extinction, thus exerting a significant impact on biodiversity. However, current research reveals a lack of information concerning the potential distribution and changes of these species. This study used the maximum entropy model to predict the present and future potential habitats of rare and endangered species in Yunnan Province. After superimposing model results, four richness regions are divided by the natural breakpoint method and analyzed. Existing protected areas are compared with hotspots, and the land-use composition of hotspots is also analyzed. The results revealed that, in both current and future scenarios, rare and endangered species in Yunnan Province are primarily found in the western mountainous region, the Xishuangbanna–Wenshan high temperature area, and the Kunming–Qujing dense vegetation cover area. These species are also expanding their distribution towards the western mountainous area. However, under the low carbon emission scenario (RCP2.6), these species will spread from the high abundance regions to the low altitude hotspots by 2070. In the high carbon emissions scenario (RCP8.5), there will be fewer high abundance areas in 2070 than in 2050. The transfer matrix analysis reveals regional richness variations over time. Furthermore, the analysis revealed significant conservation gaps and found that existing hotspot areas were heavily affected by human activities. To improve conservation efficiency, it is necessary to enhance the protection of existing hotspots in Yunnan Province. Climate change plays a significant role in species migration, with precipitation levels being a key factor. The necessary actions should be taken to address the insufficient protection, resolve conflicts between human activities and land use in critical areas, and formulate effective strategies for adapting to future climate changes. Yunnan Province, with its rich species resources, has the potential to become a global innovator in biodiversity conservation by implementing improved conservation strategies.

SiC-on-insulator based lateral power device and it’ s analytical models

This paper proposes the concept of SiC-on-insulator (SiCOI) lateral power device and its analytical models. The SiCOI technology provides dielectric isolation and improves the vertical breakdown. The analytical models provide the physic insight of the surface potential and electric field distributions for both full and partial depletion cases. The optimal breakdown voltage and doping concentration are deduced to analyze the breakdown mechanism qualitatively. The specific on-resistance in the drift region was also calculated to analyze the conduction characteristics. The influences of the structure parameters on the performances of the SiCOI lateral power device are investigated by the analytical model and numerical simulation. The analytical results of the proposed model are well agreement with the numerical results, confirming the validity of the proposed unified analytical model. Both the analytical and numerical results provide the physical explanation and effective solution for optimizing the electric field and improving breakdown voltage for the SiCOI lateral power device.

Inferring position of motor units from high-density surface EMG

The spatial distribution of muscle fibre activity is of interest in guiding therapy and assessing recovery of motor function following injuries of the peripheral or central nervous system. This paper presents a new method for stable estimation of motor unit territory centres from high-density surface electromyography (HDsEMG). This completely automatic process applies principal component compression and a rotatable Gaussian surface fit to motor unit action potential (MUAP) distributions to map the spatial distribution of motor unit activity. Each estimated position corresponds to the signal centre of the motor unit territory. Two subjects were used to test the method on forearm muscles, using two different approaches. With the first dataset, motor units were identified by decomposition of intramuscular EMG and the centre position of each motor unit territory was estimated from synchronized HDsEMG data. These positions were compared to the positions of the intramuscular fine wire electrodes with depth measured using ultrasound. With the second dataset, decomposition and motor unit localization was done directly on HDsEMG data, during specific muscle contractions. From the first dataset, the mean estimated depth of the motor unit centres were 8.7, 11.6, and 9.1 mm, with standard deviations 0.5, 0.1, and 1.3 mm, and the respective depths of the fine wire electrodes were 8.4, 15.8, and 9.1 mm. The second dataset generated distinct spatial distributions of motor unit activity which were used to identify the regions of different muscles of the forearm, in a 3-dimensional and projected 2-dimensional view. In conclusion, a method is presented which estimates motor unit centre positions from HDsEMG. The study demonstrates the shifting spatial distribution of muscle fibre activity between different efforts, which could be used to assess individual muscles on a motor unit level.

Under pressure: suitable areas for neotropical cats within an under protected biodiversity hotspot

Understand which factors influence the distribution of feline species can contribute to better planning of conservation strategies in a biodiversity hotspot. We modeled the potential distribution of seven cat species occurring in the Atlantic Forest (AF). Here, we combined climatic and landscape perspectives to determine the most suitable areas considering the taxonomic richness of these cats. We also assessed the ability of fully protected areas (FPAS) to protect these cat species. The results indicated that only 30% of the AF remnants are suitable for all species. Areas with low species richness were located in Argentina and northeastern Brazil. For taxonomic richness, the Serra do Mar (45.89%) and the Araucaria (27.90%) sub-regions had the highest suitable areas, followed by the Interior sub-region (21.89%). The Brejos Nordestinos and Pernambuco sub-regions had less than 1% suitability. Considering taxonomic richness, only 9% of suitable areas are covered by FPAs. Leopardus emiliae (1.37%) and Panthera onca (1.97%) had the lowest values of suitable areas covered by FPAs. The other species of cats are also under low protection (L. guttulus = 5.38%, L. wiedii = 5.71%, Herpailurus yagouaroundi = 6.70%, L. pardalis = 3.85%, and Puma concolor = 4.94%). We reveal that a low percentage of suitable areas are currently fully protected. This study also provides important conservation measures to be implemented in different AF sub-regions. These findings may help in the planning, maintenance, and implementation of FPAs through restoration programs and the establishment of ecological corridors.

The use of an integrated framework combining eco-evolutionary data and species distribution models to predict range shifts of species under changing climates

Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools that can predict potential distributions of species under climate change. However, traditional SDMs that rely on current species occurrences may underestimate their climatic tolerances and potential distributions. To address this limitation, we developed an integrated framework that incorporates eco-evolutionary data into SDMs. In our approach, the fundamental niches of species are constructed by their realized niches in different periods, and those fundamental niches are used to predict potential distributions of species. Our framework includes multiple phylogenetic analyses, such as niche evolution rate estimation and ancestral area reconstruction. These analyses provide deeper insights into the responses of species to climate change. We applied our approach to the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex to evaluate its efficacy through comprehensive performance evaluations and validation tests. Our framework can be applied broadly to species with available phylogenetic data and occurrence records, making it a valuable tool for understanding species adaptation in a rapidly changing world.•Integrating the niches of species in different periods estimates more complete climatic envelopes for them.•Combining eco-evolutionary data with SDMs predicts more comprehensive potential distributions of species under climate change.•Our framework provides a general procedure for species with phylogenetic data and occurrence records.

Mapping the potential distribution of Asian elephants: Implications for conservation and human–elephant conflict mitigation in South and Southeast Asia

Asian elephants play a pivotal role in their ecosystem. Understanding the potential distribution area of this species is vital for effective conservation efforts and mitigation of human-elephant conflicts. In this study, we used the maximum entropy to simulate the potential distribution area of Asian elephants across South and Southeast Asia, leveraging Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and presence data sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). The analysis revealed that the potential distribution area of Asian elephants spans 530,418 km2 (10.59% of the study area), with significant potential distribution areas observed in Indonesia (136,890 km2) and Malaysia (119,497 km2). Vegetation type emerged as the dominant environmental factor influencing model outcomes, encompassing aspects such as broadleaved evergreen tree coverage, broadleaved deciduous closed tree coverage and EVI. The potential distribution area of Asian elephants overlaps with regions inhabited by 55.25 million people, with 6.07 million people residing in highly suitable habitats. India and Malaysia have high potential for human-elephant conflict (HEC) due to the high number of people living in potential and highly suitable habitats for elephants. Bangladesh and Nepal, on the other hand, have fewer people living in these habitats suitable for elephants, but they face relatively high human population density in these areas.

How to assess the accuracy of volume conduction models? A validation study with stereotactic EEG data.

Volume conduction models of the human head are used in various neuroscience fields, such as for source reconstruction in EEG and MEG, and for modeling the effects of brain stimulation. Numerous studies have quantified the accuracy and sensitivity of volume conduction models by analyzing the effects of the geometrical and electrical features of the head model, the sensor model, the source model, and the numerical method. Most studies are based on simulations as it is hard to obtain sufficiently detailed measurements to compare to models. The recording of stereotactic EEG during electric stimulation mapping provides an opportunity for such empirical validation. In the study presented here, we used the potential distribution of volume-conducted artifacts that are due to cortical stimulation to evaluate the accuracy of finite element method (FEM) volume conduction models. We adopted a widely used strategy for numerical comparison, i.e., we fixed the geometrical description of the head model and the mathematical method to perform simulations, and we gradually altered the head models, by increasing the level of detail of the conductivity profile. We compared the simulated potentials at different levels of refinement with the measured potentials in three epilepsy patients. Our results show that increasing the level of detail of the volume conduction head model only marginally improves the accuracy of the simulated potentials when compared to in-vivo sEEG measurements. The mismatch between measured and simulated potentials is, throughout all patients and models, maximally 40 microvolts (i.e., 10% relative error) in 80% of the stimulation-recording combination pairs and it is modulated by the distance between recording and stimulating electrodes. Our study suggests that commonly used strategies used to validate volume conduction models based solely on simulations might give an overly optimistic idea about volume conduction model accuracy. We recommend more empirical validations to be performed to identify those factors in volume conduction models that have the highest impact on the accuracy of simulated potentials. We share the dataset to allow researchers to further investigate the mismatch between measurements and FEM models and to contribute to improving volume conduction models.

Predicting the Distributions of Morus notabilis C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China

As one of the common mulberry tree species, Morus notabilis C. K. Schneid plays a significant role in various industries such as silkworm rearing, papermaking, and medicine due to its valuable mulberry leaves, fruits, and wood. This study utilizes the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution of M. notabilis in China under future environmental changes. By integrating the relative percentage contribution score of environmental factors with jackknife test analysis, important variables influencing the distribution of M. notabilis were identified along with their optimal values. The results indicate that Annual Precipitation (bio12), Precipitation of Driest Month (bio14), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (bio6), Temperature Annual Range (bio5–bio6) (bio7), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18), and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (bio19) are the primary environmental variables affecting its potential distribution. Currently, M. notabilis exhibits high suitability over an area spanning 11,568 km2, while medium suitability covers 34,244 km2. Both current and future suitable areas for M. notabilis are predominantly concentrated in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces, as well as Chongqing city in southwest China. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario representing high greenhouse gas concentrations by 2050s and 2090s, there is an increase in high suitability area by 2952 km2 and 3440 km2, with growth rates reaching 25.52% and 29.74%, respectively. Notably, these two scenarios exhibit substantial expansion in suitable habitats for this species compared to others analyzed within this study period.

The DFT and in-silico analysis of 2,2′-((1e,1′e)-((3,3′-dimethyl-[1,1′-biphenyl]−4,4′ diyl)bis(azanylylidene))bis(methanylylidene))diphenol molecule

In this study, crystallographic, molecular geometry, surfaces (MEP, Hirshfeld and Frontiers Orbitals-HOMO and LUMO), molecular docking with carbonic anhydrase II-5AML protein, drug-likeness, ADME and vibrational assignment analyses of the molecule were studied in detail and the results were carefully analyzed. The theoretical studies were carried out in DFT/B3LYP/6–311++G(d,p) quantum chemical method and basis set with the Gaussian 09 W package program. Potential energy distributions (PED) were used in conjunction with the VEDA 4 tool to get the vibrational assignments of the title chemical with %10 precision. In solid phase, the FT-IR experimental spectrum was collected at 4000–400 cm−1. Due to the affinity and binding energy of the title molecule to protein active sites, the results showed that our molecule is a potent potential inhibitor of carbonic anhydrase II.

Molecular phylogenetics of the Ophiocordyceps sinensis-species complex lineage (Ascomycota, Hypocreales), with the discovery of new species and predictions of species distribution

Ophiocordyceps sinensis is a famous traditional Chinese medicine adapted to the alpine environment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and adjacent regions. Clarification of the species diversity of Ophiocordyceps sinensis and its relatives could expand the traditional medicinal resources and provide insights into the speciation and adaptation. The study is prompted by the discovery of a new species, O. megala, described here from a biodiversity hotspot in the Hengduan Mountains, China. Combined morphological, ecological, and phylogenetic evidence supports its distinctiveness from O. sinensis, O. xuefengensis, and O. macroacicularis. Additionally, based on the phylogenetic construction of Ophiocordyceps, a special clade was focused phylogenetically on the more closely related O. sinensis complex, which was defined as the O. sinensis- species complex lineage. A total of 10 species were currently confirmed in this lineage. We made a comprehensive comparison of the sexual/asexual morphological structures among this species complex, distinguishing their common and distinctive features. Furthermore, using the method of species distribution modelling, we studied the species ocurrences in relation to climatic, edaphic, and altitudinal variables for the eight species in the O. sinensis-species complex, and determined that their potential distribution could extend from the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the Xuefeng Mountains without isolating barrier. Thus, the biodiversity corridor hypothesis was proposed around the O. sinensis-species complex. Our study highlights the phylogeny, species diversity, and suitable distribution of the O. sinensis-species complex lineage, which should have a positive implication for the resource discovery and adaptive evolution of this unique and valuable group.

Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics.

Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 °C), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium-long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.

Effect of Climate and Land-Use Changes on a Threatened Forest Resident Bird

Endangered species are being threatened by climate and land-use changes. However, the relative effects of climate and land-use changes on forest resident birds remain unclear. In this study, we employed an ecological niche model to forecast the potential influence of climate and land-use changes on Reeves’s pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii), while taking into account topographical limitations. We observed that climate and land-use changes would have a remarkably negative impact on Syrmaticus reevesii, and climate change would play a dominant role. Consequently, the potential distribution range of Syrmaticus reevesii would sharply decrease, and this species may face a significant risk of extinction in 2070. In addition, we found that the area change predicted by climate and land-use changes would be significantly lower inside the China Nature Reserve Network (NNR) than outside the NNR. However, less than 15% of the area suitable for Syrmaticus reevesii has been covered by NNR. Furthermore, our results showed that the response of Syrmaticus reevesii to climate and land-use changes largely depended on topographical factors, and Syrmaticus reevesii would face greater impacts from climate and land-use changes under topographical limitations. Taken together, we highlight that it is imperative to adjust and develop nature reserve networks and conservation strategies to cope with rapid global environmental change.

Potential Distribution and Identification of Critical Areas for the Preservation and Recovery of Three Species of Cinchona L. (Rubiaceae) in Northeastern Peru

The genus Cinchona L. has important medicinal, cultural, and economic value and is the emblematic tree of Peru. The genus is mainly found in the cloud forests of the Andes. However, the expansion of agriculture and livestock farming in the department of Amazonas is degrading these ecosystems and has reduced the size of the genus’s populations. In this work, we model the potential distribution under current conditions of three Cinchona species (C. capuli L. Anderson, C. macrocalyx Pav. Ex DC., and C. pubescens Vahl.) to identify areas with a high likelihood of species presence and their key conservation and reforestation zones. We fitted a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model using nineteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic variables, nine edaphic variables, and solar radiation. Under current conditions, the potential distribution of C. capuli covers 17.22% (7243.98 km2); C. macrocalyx, 29.11% (12,238.91 km2); and C. pubescens, 22.94% (9647.63 km2) of the study area, which was mostly located in central and southern Amazonas. Only 24.29% (25.51% of C. capuli, 21.02% of C. macrocalyx, and 26.35% of C. pubescens) of the potential distributions are within protected areas, while 10,987.22 km2 of the surface area of the department of Amazonas is degraded, of which 29.80% covers the area of probable occurrence of C. capuli, 38.72% of C. macrocalyx, and 34.82% of C. pubescens. Consequently, it is necessary to promote additional conservation strategies for Cinchona, including the establishment of new protected areas and the recovery of degraded habitats, in order to protect this species.

Climate Change Threatens the Habitat of Pinus massoniana in China

Pinus massoniana Lamb. is one of the main timber tree species. There is a large artificial planting area in South China, and this tree has important economic and ecological value. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability model based on 115 current data and 22 environmental variables to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species. Future climate change scenarios were defined as four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5, SSP 3–7.0, SSP 5–8.5) and four periods (including 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) based on nine global circulation model datasets. To fully consider the potential distribution of P. massoniana under specific climate change conditions and soil conditions, we constructed an ensemble model using four commonly used model algorithms. The results indicated that the current suitable habitat for P. massoniana covers approximately 1.10 × 106 km2 in southeastern China. In the future, the model results showed that under different climate change scenarios and at different times, the change in suitable habitat for P. massoniana varied; moreover, under moderate climate change scenarios, the average temperature decreased by less than 3 °C and the suitable habitat area decreased slightly, with an area larger than 0.95 × 106 km2. However, under intense warming scenarios, for which the average temperature increased above 3 °C, the suitable habitat for P. massoniana decreased. In the most severe warming scenario, the suitable habitat area for P. massoniana was reduced to 44% of the base climate conditions with severe habitat fragmentation, which should be fully considered in future planting initiatives and plant protection.

Transport and Potential Sources Regions of Double High Pollution in Nanjing by Different Synoptic Situations

Based on the hourly concentration data of fine particulate matter （PM2.5） and ozone （O3） in Nanjing from 2015 to 2019， the synoptic situation that occurred in Nanjing， in which high PM2.5 and high O3 coexisted （hereinafter referred to as double high pollution （DHP））， was typed using T-mode principal component analysis. Additionally， the backward trajectory clustering analysis method， potential source contribution method （PSCF）， and concentration weight trajectory analysis method （CWT） were used to study the transport paths and potential source region distribution of the DHP of Nanjing by different synoptic situations. The synoptic situations favorable to the DHP in Nanjing were the control of weak low-pressure type （Type1） and high-pressure center （Type2）. Synoptic situations could have had an effect on the directional origin of the backward trajectory. In Type1， the Nanjing area was affected by two low pressures in the northeast and southwest， and the clustering trajectories of the Nanjing air mass mainly came from the eastern and western directions. The average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in the trajectory were 83.48 μg·m-3 and 106.85 μg·m-3， respectively. In Type 2， Nanjing and its surroundings were at the edge of the high-pressure center， and the air mass cluster trajectories mainly came from the north and east. The average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in the trajectory were 94.47 μg·m-3 and 92.32 μg·m-3， respectively. Most of the two types of backward trajectories belonged to short and medium-distance regional transportation， indicating that the pollution of neighboring provinces was one of the main factors affecting the DHP in Nanjing. PSCF and CWT analysis showed that the distribution of the most important potential sources of PM2.5 and O3 in Type1 and Type2 were not completely consistent， which indicates that the two pollutants did not come from the same area in the DHP.

Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia.

Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored.

The past is uncertain: alternative responses of cloud forest mammals to the Last Glacial Maximum in the Oaxacan Highlands, Mexico

ABSTRACTThe Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 26,000–19,000 years before the present) altered the distribution of species worldwide. Its effect is poorly known in tropical regions because the cooling and drought reached during that period are uncertain. Here, I generated hypotheses regarding the possible responses of cloud forest mammals in the Oaxacan Highlands (OH) of Mexico, a region with one of the most extensive cloud forests in the Neotropics. First, I used three General Circulation Models (GCMs: CCSM3, MIROC‐ESM and MPI) to characterize probable climates during the LGM. Then, I used ecological niche models to estimate the current and LGM potential distributions of four cloud forest species. As in other locations, the results show that GCMs are consistent with cooler conditions relative to today; however, the three GCMs estimate precipitation regimes with notable variations in the region. MPI indicates that the LGM could have been even wetter than present. Consequently, the MPI scenario allowed more widespread potential distributions of mammals. The paleodistributions show how mid‐ and lowlands were essential for the long‐term survival of these ‘high‐mountain mammals’ throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle. The paleodistributions presented here are precise hypotheses that can be tested based on paleoecological and genetic evidence.