Potential Contingencies Research Articles

Aggregated vulnerability assessment of power transmission lines under operational and hurricane induced outages

Power transmission lines are at risk during extreme weather events and their outage can be disastrous for the power grid operation. Extreme weather event forecasting is not always precise, making it difficult to predict transmission line failures and the resultant consequences. These potential contingencies demand careful examination in power system planning. Conventionally, contingency ranking using operational performance indexes (PIs) based on line flows and voltage violations has been adopted. For a further in-depth reliability evaluation, weather-based uncertainties should be considered in conjunction with performance-based metrics. In this paper, a hurricane is considered as an extreme weather event. Multiple possible paths and intensities of the hurricane are simulated for the line wear-out stage to calculate a weather-based failure rate index (FRI). FRI states how much a particular line is affected by the hurricane and which line requires immediate attention. Finally, transmission line vulnerability rankings are generated through the unification of line operational performance and weather-based parameters. A fuzzy inference system calculates an aggregated vulnerability index based on the PI and FRI of the lines. The proposed model and techniques have been tested on IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 30-bus systems.

An innovative mixture sampling strategy with uniform design: Application to global sensitivity analysis of mixture toxicity

Global sensitivity analysis combined with quantitative high-throughput screening (GSA-qHTS) uses random starting points of the trajectories in mixture design, which may lead to potential contingency and a lack of representativeness. Moreover, a scenario in which all factor levels were at stimulatory effects was not considered, thereby hindering a comprehensive understanding of GSA-qHTS. Accordingly, this study innovatively introduced an optimised experimental design, uniform design (UD), to generate non-random and representative sample points with smaller uniformity deviation as starting points of multiple trajectories. By combining UD with the previously optimised one-factor-at-a-time (OAT) method, a novel mixture design method was developed (UD-OAT). The single toxicity tests showed that three pyridinium and five imidazolium ionic liquids (ILs) exerted stimulatory effects on Vibrio qinghaiensis sp.-Q67; thus, four stimulatory effective concentrations of each IL were selected as factor levels. The UD-OAT generated 108 mixture samples with equal frequency and without repetition. High-throughput microplate toxicity analysis revealed that all 108 mixtures exhibited inhibitory effects. Among these, type B mixtures exhibited increasing toxicities that subsequently decreased, unlike type C mixtures, which consistently increased over time. GSA successfully identified three of the eight ILs as important factors influencing the toxicities of the mixtures. When individual ILs produced stimulatory effects, mixtures containing two to three ILs exhibited either stimulatory effects or none. In contrast, mixtures containing five to eight ILs exhibited inhibitory effects, while those containing four ILs showed a transition from stimulatory to inhibitory effects. This study provides a novel mixture design method for studying mixture toxicity and fills the application gap of GSA-qHTS. The phenomenon of individuals being beneficial while mixtures can be harmful challenges traditional mixture risk assessments.

When does greener mean slimmer? Longitudinal analysis of green space, trees, grass, and body mass index in a cohort of 50,672 Australians: Exploring potential non-linearities and modifying influences of household relocation and gender

Studies of associations between green space and overweight/obesity are often agnostic to green space type and potential contingencies by gender and household relocation. We investigated associations between total green space, tree canopy, and open grass within 1.6 km road network buffers, on body mass index (BMI) at baseline (n = 110,234; 2005–2009) and follow-up (n=50,672; 2012–2015) using data from the Sax’s Institute’s 45 and Up Study (NSW, Australia). Analyses considered potential non-linearities in these associations and the possibility for effect modification by gender and household relocation. Models were adjusted for age, couple status, region of birth, household income, employment status, educational attainment and housing status. Results revealed that 20 % or more tree canopy, compared to 0–10 % tree canopy was associated with lower BMI. Comparable findings were not observed for open grass or total green space. Nonlinear associations were observed, with a rapid decrease in odds of being overweight/obese at baseline with 20 % tree canopy, that became more stable by 30 % tree canopy. This non-linearity was stronger in females than males. By follow-up, associations indicated potential protective effects with 20 % or more tree canopy for overweight/obesity in females. Logistic regression models examined the odds of becoming a healthy weight at follow-up in overweight/obese individuals at baseline. Results indicated a potentially protective influence of tree canopy on overweight/obesity for people who did not move home (odds ratio (OR) = 1.06, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.01–1.12), but not those who relocated (OR = 0.97, 95 % CI = 0.83–1.11). In sum, conserving and restoring urban tree canopy to at least 20% to 30% of nearby land-use may help to reduce levels of overweight and obesity in the community These benefits may be particularly potent for females and for people who are residentially stable. More open grass, or green space in general, may not have the same benefits for adult overweight/obesity as tree canopy.

Voltage stability assessment and contingency ranking in power systems based on modern stability assessment index

Electric loads steadily increase each year due to economic and population expansion, placing electric systems close to their stability limits. Also, the electrical network is a sophisticated system with various control, protection devices, and power electronics. Any malfunction in these components can disrupt system reliability. Therefore, ensuring safe and dependable power system operation requires continuous and precise voltage stability monitoring to prevent instability and cascading outages. Despite the existence of numerous stability indexes, their limitations often make them ineffective under varying operating conditions. In response to these challenges, this article proposes a modern stability assessment index (MSAI) designed specifically to assess voltage stability in different operating scenarios. The MSAI aims to accurately assess voltage stability and stress levels in power lines, enabling operators to proactively manage system reliability. One key advantage of the MSAI is its ability to determine the maximum allowable load and loading margin, which is crucial for maintaining stable operation under changing load conditions. In order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed index, extensive evaluations are conducted using IEEE 30, 57, and 118 bus test systems. The study meticulously compares the performance of the MSAI with other prominent stability indicators, highlighting its superiority in providing predictive insights into areas prone to stress and potential contingencies. By empowering operators with preemptive correction capabilities, the MSAI reduces the risk of successive outages and enhances overall system flexibility. The voltage stability assessment and contingency ranking were evaluated using the proposed MSAI via a smooth method in the MATLAB environment.

How Erroneous Beliefs Trigger Authoritarian Collapse: The Case of Tunisia, January 14, 2011

Why was the longtime Tunisian ruler Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali ousted on January 14, 2011? Prevailing theories focus on popular mobilization, grievances, and the role of the army to explain the collapse of the authoritarian regime. I evaluate these arguments in light of new empirical evidence, which shows that they are insufficient to explain Ben Ali’s ousting. Analyzing key decisional moments and counterfactual scenarios, I propose that the regime collapsed because of a set of erroneous beliefs, which flourished amid the contingent revolutionary context. Erroneous beliefs are endogenous to highly contingent revolutionary periods and a potential contingency themselves in that they can change collective outcomes. This study shows how the microanalysis of events can furnish new insights into highly impactful events in history—the collapse of the Ben Ali regime gave rise to the wider Arab Uprisings—and topics of key concern to scholars of contentious politics, authoritarianism, and democratization.

Open knowledge disclosure and firm value: a signalling theory perspective

ABSTRACT A growing number of firms are openly disclosing knowledge through academic journals and conferences; however, the impact of this practice on their market value needs further research. From a signalling theory perspective, we investigate the relationship between open knowledge disclosure and firm value and identify potential contingency factors. We propose that open knowledge disclosure conveys a firm’s technical capability and commitment to open science, consequently contributing to its market value. Drawing upon data from listed companies within China’s information and communication technology sector, we confirm that open knowledge disclosure enhances firm value. Furthermore, this enhancement is more pronounced for small firms, young firms, private firms, firms with few patents, firms drafting few technical standards, or firms operating in an immature technology market. Our findings suggest that firms, especially those facing high information asymmetry or lacking alternative signals, can increase their market value by sending positive signals through open knowledge disclosure.

Optimal location of FACTS devices with EVCS in power system network using PSO

The appeal of Electric Vehicles (EVs) is steadily growing, driven by the numerous advantages they offer to both owners and the environment. However, this surge in EV adoption places an increasing demand on the power system network for electric charging. The consequential strain on the power system may lead to instability and potential contingencies within the network. To mitigate these challenges, this paper recommends the installation of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices. Specifically, two types of FACTS devices, Static Var Compensator (SVC) and Thyristor-Controlled Series Capacitor (TCSC), are employed to enhance the stability and loading conditions of the power system network. The study focuses on an IEEE 39 bus system network chosen for the installation of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (EVCS). The objective is to assess the maximum loading factor of each bus within the network. This paper introduces a methodology for determining the optimal locations for both EVCS and FACTS devices. Notably, a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to optimize the size of FACTS devices and associated installation costs, ensuring an efficient and cost-effective enhancement to the power system's stability and loading conditions.

Generating Task Reallocation Suggestions to Handle Contingencies in Human-Supervised Multi-Robot Missions

In a mission with significant uncertainty due to intermittent communications, delayed information flow, and robotic failures, the role of human supervisors is extremely challenging. As and when any new information arrives, humans must infer both the existing and predicted future states, identify potential contingencies, and update task assignments to robots rapidly. We propose methodologies for automated generation of task reallocation suggestions to humans to assist in the decision-making process. Our generated robot retasking plan minimizes a modified makespan of the mission, which incorporates task criticality and penalty for incomplete tasks. The plan considers the effects of potential mission contingencies on the tasks, the robots, and the future performance of the robots operating based on the previous task plans. Our method includes the incorporation of two optional tasks, i.e., relay and robot rescue, for performance improvement. The rescue task has probabilistic outcomes affecting the team size. One or more rescues are incorporated in a way that can minimize the expected value of the modified makespan overall possibilities of rescue outcomes. We have conducted performance evaluation using simulation, demonstrating the value of the optional tasks and performance enhancement using our method of incorporating them. <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Note to Practitioners</i> —The work reported in this paper will be useful in applications where a team of agents is deployed to carry on a large-scale mission with communication constraints where the number of functional agents can change probabilistically. Typically, such uncertainty is encountered in applications that are challenging or dangerous in nature. Agents can have non-zero probabilities to fail while doing certain risky tasks and to get recovered by other agents. The proposed centralized multi-agent task reallocation method can help in proactively addressing potential contingencies in surveillance, search and rescue, or disaster relief to support resilient operations while having a supervisor in the higher chain of command.

Treatment of uncertainty in determining the UK's path to Net Zero

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended the UK's 2050 Net Zero target in 2019 and then the emissions pathway to this as part of its advice on the Sixth Carbon Budget at the end of 2020. As part of this, the CCC's analysis included development of five pathways to Net Zero, incorporating a number of judgements and framings regarding uncertainty and decision points, to highlight key choices for Government and wider society on the path to Net Zero. This paper explores how the analysis, and its presentation, framed these choices and uncertainties, in order to highlight where decisions are required and what the trade-offs and potential contingency options might be. It concludes with reflections on the effectiveness of this approach and on the future challenges on decision-making and uncertainty toward Net Zero.

Preparation of Contingency Trajectory Operation for the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter

The Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), also known as Danuri, successfully entered its mission orbit on December 27, 2022 (UTC), and is currently performing its mission smoothly. To mitigate potential contingencies during the flight and to navigate the spacecraft into the desired lunar orbit, the KPLO flight dynamics (FD) team analyzed major trajectory-related contingencies that could lead to the violation of mission requirements and prepared operational procedures from the perspective of trajectory and FD. This paper presents the process of preparing contingency trajectory operations for the KPLO, including the identification of trajectory contingencies, prioritization results, and the development of recovery plans and operational procedures. The prepared plans were successfully applied to address minor contingencies encountered during actual operations. The results of this study will provide valuable insights to FD engineers preparing for space exploration mission operations.

Reimagining personalization in the physical store

The evolving landscape of physical retailing necessitates a reevaluation of personalization approaches to meet existing market conditions and the demands of modern customers. In this context, the authors explore the interplay between human-enabled and technology-enabled personalization, offering an examination of their characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses. The authors deconstruct the personalization process into three distinct stages, namely identification, implementation, and interaction, and discuss potential contingency factors of personalization in the physical retailing context. More so, the authors discuss the future of personalization in physical retailing along the three steps of the defined personalization process. In doing so, the authors lay out a research agenda that can serve as a valuable guide for future studies in this field.

Microfoundations of Problem Solving: Attentional Engagement Predicts Problem-Solving Strategies

Organizations use a plethora of methods and tools to help their members solve problems effectively. Yet the specifics of how individuals solve problems remain largely unexplored. We propose and test a cognitive model of problem solving that integrates dual process theories into the attention-based view. The model suggests that diverse problem-solving strategies emerge in response to how individuals deliberate. Three studies provide observational and causal evidence in support of our model. The first study explores the strategies managers use to solve problems. We use think-aloud protocols combined with content, sequence, and cluster analyses to extract the key differences in how experienced managers solve problems. Two problem-solving strategies emerge from the data: one emphasizes mental activities related to framing, and the other emphasizes mental activities related to implementation. In the second study, we use a mixed factorial experimental design and mouse-tracking analysis to uncover the causal mechanism that explains the emergence of these two strategies. We then retest our hypotheses in a third, preregistered, study. We find that manipulating attention toward mental activities related to framing increases deliberation aimed at restructuring the problem elements. In contrast, directing attention toward mental activities related to implementation increases deliberation on the potential contingencies and consequences of the solution. Our findings provide empirical evidence about how problems are actually solved and support the idea that attentional processes are malleable enough to affect the choice of problem-solving strategies. History: This paper has been accepted for the Organization Science Special Issue on Experiments in Organizational Theory. Funding: For Study 1, funding from EC NEST-2006-PATH-Cul, CID-Cultural and Innovation Dynamics: FP6-043345 is gratefully acknowledged. Supplemental Material: The supplemental material is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2019.13213 .

Generating Function Reallocation to Handle Contingencies in Human–Robot Teaming Missions: The Cases in Lunar Surface Transportation

On lunar missions, efficient and safe transportation of human–robot systems is essential for the success of human exploration and scientific endeavors. Given the fact that transportation constructs bottlenecks for numerous typical lunar missions, it is appealing to investigate what function allocation strategies can generate optimal task implementation paths for robots with low-human workloads when the situation changes. Thus, this paper presents a novel approach to dynamic human–robot function allocation explicitly designed for team transportation in lunar missions. The proposed dynamic allocation framework aims to optimize human–robot collaboration by responding to existing and potential contingencies. First, a fitness concept model is designed to quantify the factors that motivate the functional adaptation of each agent in dynamic lunar mission scenarios. A hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) algorithm with two layers is then employed for decision-making and optimization of human–robot function allocation. Finally, the validity of the framework and algorithm proposed is validated by a series of human–robot function allocation experiments on a simulated environment that mimics lunar transportation scenarios, and is compared with the performance of other algorithms. In the future, path-planning algorithms can be incorporated into the proposed framework to improve the adaptability and efficiency of the human–robot function allocation in lunar missions.

Board diversity and post-IPO performance: the case of technology start-ups

ABSTRACT IPO firms in the technology industry are regarded as vulnerable due to their limited resources, inexperience, and relatively short technology and product lifecycles. They also lack a track record to signal to the market that they are equipped with sufficient ability to overcome the challenges faced in this highly competitive environment. This study examines whether board diversity helps IPO firms perform better in such a challenging environment; furthermore, we explore the potential contingencies that magnify or weaken the benefits of board diversity by examining how its impact is moderated by firm size and board tenure. Using a sample of 363 IPO events within technology firms over 11 years, we find that higher board diversity is associated with better post-IPO performance; however, a larger firm size and longer board tenure decrease the value created by board diversity. The findings are robust to alternative measures of performance and board diversity. Our study contributes to the literature by demonstrating the significant impact of board diversity on the performance of technology IPO firms as well as explaining the conditions under which boards effectively execute their resource dependence roles.

ATC Human Factors Involved in RPAS Contingency Management in Non-Segregated Airspace

Objectives: The overall approach towards Remotely Piloted Aerial System integration into a non-segregated airspace is that the unmanned vehicles should be able to fit into the current air traffic management system, thus meeting all the technical and regulatory requirements to be treated similar to any other airspace user. Such a requirement implies that unmanned aircraft operations should behave as close as possible to manned aviation or at least generate the most negligible possible negative impact on the system. From the air traffic management point of view, this implies that air traffic controllers should be capable of effectively handling different types of RPAS operating in a nominal state but also when suffering a potential contingency. This paper aims to analyse how air traffic controllers involved in managing unmanned aircraft integration into non-segregated airspace are impacted when an unmanned vehicle suffers a contingency. Participants: Six air traffic controllers were the test subjects, complemented by one RPAS pilot and several pseudo-pilots controlling the simulated manned traffic. The project collected real-time simulation data to develop specific indicators to determine how the controllers’ workload increases while managing complex traffic scenarios, including a single RPAS. Study Method: We conducted exhaustive traffic flight simulations, recreating complex airspace scenarios, including various RPAS types and mission-oriented trajectories. The involved RPAS were subjected to two of the most relevant contingencies: loss of the command-and-control link and engine failure. The experiments were evaluated in different operational scenarios, including using autonomous communication technologies to help air traffic controllers track the RPAS operation. Findings: The results indicate that the air traffic controller’s perception and workload are not affected beyond reason by the introduction of an unmanned aircraft as a new element into the non-segregated airspace, even when that aircraft suffers a contingency. The flight-intent technology increases situational awareness, leading to more efficient and safe airspace management. Additional simulations may need to be performed to evaluate the impact on airspace capacity, safety, and workload when various unmanned vehicles are simultaneously inserted.

The double‐edged sword of CEO narcissism: A meta‐analysis of innovation and firm performance implications

AbstractDespite a growing body of research, the role of chief executive officer (CEO) narcissism for firm performance is subject to a controversial discussion in the literature. To help advance the discussion, I build on upper echelon theory to propose that innovation is a crucial mediating mechanism that helps explain how CEO narcissism may be beneficial for firm performance. To better understand the conditions under which CEO narcissism may be beneficial for innovation and ultimately firm performance, I investigate the moderating role of CEO gender and managerial discretion. Building on 68 studies, results from meta‐analytical structural equation modeling confirm that CEO narcissism can be beneficial for firm performance through stimulating innovation. However, the results further caution that these performance benefits are likely to be canceled out by other detrimental actions pursued by narcissistic CEOs, indicating that they can be a double‐edged sword for firms. Moreover, the results support that narcissistic female CEOs engage less in innovation (compared to their male counterparts). Interestingly, they seem to engage in other beneficial actions which ultimately improve overall firm performance, whereas their male counterparts engage in other harmful actions which hurt overall firm performance. The results further highlight that, while the upsides of narcissistic CEOs for performance through innovation increase in high managerial discretion contexts, their greater leeway enhances their downsides even more, so that they do not only offset the benefits of narcissistic CEOs, but even lead to detrimental effects for performance. This study contributes to the literature on CEO narcissism by theorizing and empirically demonstrating that the relationship between CEO narcissism and performance is more complex than previously depicted and requires a more nuanced investigation of the underlying mechanism as well as of potential contingencies. Building on these findings, future research opportunities are identified to further advance the literature on CEO narcissism.

Institutional distance and cross-border acquisitions into emerging markets: the moderating effect of context experience

PurposeThis study aims to examine the multidimensional nature of institutional distance as a driver of acquisition decisions in emerging markets. Then, this study aims to offer a nuanced perspective on the role of its various formal and informal dimensions by taking into account the potential contingency role played by a firm’s context experience.Design/methodology/approachBuilding on institutional economics and organizational institutionalism, this study explores the heterogeneity of institutional distance and its effects on the decision to enter emerging versus advanced markets through cross-border acquisitions. Thus, institutional distance is disentangled into its formal and informal dimensions, the former being captured by regulatory efficiency, country governance and financial development. Furthermore, our framework examines the moderating effect of an acquiring firm’s experience in institutionally similar environments, defined as context experience. The hypotheses are analyzed on a sample of 496 cross-border acquisitions by Italian companies in 41 countries from 2008 to 2018.FindingsFindings indicate that at an increasing distance in terms of regulatory efficiency and financial development, acquiring firms are less likely to enter emerging markets, while informal institutional distance is positively associated with such acquisitions. Context experience mitigates the negative effect of formal distance and enhances the positive effect of informal distance.Originality/valueThis study contributes to institutional distance literature in multiple ways. First, by bridging institutional economics and organizational institutionalism and second, by examining the heterogeneity of formal and informal dimensions of distance, this study offers a finer-grained perspective on how institutional distance affects acquisition decisions. Finally, it offers a contingency perspective on the role of context experience.

Customer Engagement in International Markets

Relationship marketing managers around the world actively try to stimulate customer engagement because of its performance-enhancing effects. Research insights into how to engage customers, such that they voluntarily contribute their resources to support companies’ marketing efforts, almost exclusively pertain to individual, domestic markets. However, the prerequisites of customer engagement strategies naturally differ across country-specific market environments. Therefore, the authors develop a conceptual, comprehensive battery of cultural, institutional, societal, and economic country-level contingency factors (CISE indicators) as well as between-country psychic distances on those indicators. A set of 11 high-level research propositions aims to enhance marketing researchers’ and managers’ understanding of the contingencies of international customer engagement strategy effectiveness and customer engagement's performance ramifications. The analysis reflects the richness and complexity of potential contingency effects across the four CISE categories and encourages empirical research on their separate and joint effects.

Organizational Status as a Promoter and an Inhibitor of Transition to Digital Platform Business

While prior research considerably expanded our understandings of the platform business and its success factors, scant attention has been paid to the cases of incumbents’ strategic change from the product-based business model to the platform-based business model. Such a strategic shift may innovate value both beneficial for the firm and its stakeholders, yet it also poses a significant number of uncertainties for their constituents. Facing uncertainties, constituents are expected to find signals such as status and reputation. Thus, we examined the effect of a firm’s status on the important strategic change of adding a digital platform, and the potential contingency of the effect. Exploiting a sample from the Fortune list of Top 500 companies in China, we found that high-status incumbents are more likely to add a digital platform than their low-status counterparts, thus indicating status can be seen as a promoter. After the digital platform addition, however, low-status firms are more likely to increase in performance than their high-status counterparts, thus suggesting that status can meanwhile be seen as an inhibitor. This research has contributed to our understandings of the social contingency of strategic change, digital platform business model and illuminated the need for revisiting the boundary condition of organizational status as an advantage and a constraint. Keywords: Digital Transformation, Organizational Status, Platform Business Model

Entrepreneurs Can Know More Than They Can Tell: Conceptualizing and Measuring Tacit Entrepreneurial Knowledge.

Organizational knowledge components dominate research on tacit knowledge. In order to overcome this dominance, we introduce Tacit Entrepreneurial Knowledge (TEK). TEK is conceptualized as one’s experiential learning from past experiences and insights that result in tacit knowledge regarding entrepreneurship that is implicit, personal, and uncodified. For this study the situational judgment test (SJT) approach is adopted to overcome the common limitations in quantifying an individual’s tacit knowledge. The SJT is a scenario-based measurement instrument that allows us to quantify an individual’s TEK. The SJT is developed using three steps: first, scenarios were collected through interviews, followed by formulating responses to the scenarios, and finally, the effectiveness of the responses for each scenario was evaluated. The outcome of this research article is threefold; first, a comprehensive conceptualization of TEK, including delineation of its nomological network. Second, the development of a measurement instrument for TEK and subsequent scoring method. Finally, an antecedent-consequence model which includes potential contingencies associated with these relationships. In the debate on tacit knowledge, our measurement is innovative and relevant, as previous research failed to uncover an individual’s tacit knowledge in the context of entrepreneurship, despite its importance in various entrepreneurial processes. This study aspires to ignite research into TEK by demonstrating important research opportunities unlocked by our conceptualization and subsequent measurement, offering future researchers a wide range of avenues to uncover the black box of tacit knowledge in entrepreneurship.