Potential Adoption Rates Research Articles

Estimating potential adoption rate of electric vehicles in urban logistics

ABSTRACT This research presents an analytical analysis of the factors related to the preference for using electric vehicles, aimed at estimating their potential adoption in urban freight transport. We employed choice modeling to assess the trade-offs among various attributes associated with Electric Freight Vehicles (EFVs) and predicted the probabilities of EFV adoption within urban freight fleets. This estimation is based on an industry survey and real delivery data from a retail firm. Our findings indicate that electric vehicles could be utilized in approximately 32% of the deliveries for the case company. This, in turn, corresponds to a notable 26% reduction in CO2 emissions resulting from delivery operations. Furthermore, our model enabled us to expand the scope of our analysis to the city level, using Istanbul as a specific example. Our illustration demonstrates that, under the current circumstances, electric vehicles have the potential to account for roughly 25% of all deliveries in Istanbul.

Assessing the adoption rates of improved technology in traditional poultry farming: Evidence from rural Togo

The adoption of improved agricultural technologies is known to significantly improve incomes, create more wealth, alleviate poverty and contribute to rural development in many developing countries. The Government of Togo, through the National Programme for Agricultural Investment and Food Security (PNIASAN) and the Agricultural Sector Support Project (PASA), and with financial support from the World Bank and help from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides assistance to smallholder farmers in improved technology adoption in traditional poultry farming (ITTPF) for wealth creation, food security and poverty alleviation. However, for any technology or emerging agricultural practices, awareness and exposure are necessary conditions for their adoption. And because these two factors are not distributed randomly in the population of potential adopters, not taking them into account will lead to estimates of population adoption rates that are not informative of the true demand for the technology, and to inconsistent estimates of the parameters of the adoption model. In this study, we evaluate the adoption rates of ITTPF among farmers in Togo. Data was collected from 400 farmers in 2014, prior to the introduction of ITTPF, and again five years later. This data was then analysed using inverse propensity score weighting and parametric estimation of adoption regression models. The results of the estimates indicate that the average treatment effect (𝐴𝑇𝐸), which represents the mean potential adoption rate of the population, is 57%, the average treatment effect on the treated (𝐴𝑇𝐸𝑇), which represents the mean potential adoption rate in the exposed subpopulation, is 60%, the population mean joint exposure and adoption rate (𝐽𝐸𝐴) is 13%, and the population selection bias (𝑃𝑆𝐵) is 3%. The sample adoption rate (𝐽𝐸𝐴) AfJARE Vol 17 No 3 (2022) pp 206–223 Soviada

Adoption of digital technologies in agriculture—an inventory in a european small-scale farming region

As digitalization in the agricultural sector has intensified, the number of studies addressing adoption and use of digital technologies in crop production and livestock farming has also increased. However, digitalization trends in the context of small-scale farming have mainly been excluded from such studies. The focus of this paper is on investigating the sequential adoption of precision agriculture (PA) and other digital technologies, and the use of multiple technologies in a small-scale agricultural region in southern Germany. An online survey of farmers yielded a total of 2,390 observations, of which 1,820 operate in field farming, and 1,376 were livestock farmers. A heuristic approach was deployed to identify adoption patterns. Probable multiple uses of 30 digital farming technologies and decision-support applications, as well as potential trends of sequential technology adoption were analyzed for four sequential points of adoption (entry technology, currently used technologies, and planned short-term and mid-term investments). Results show that Bavarian farmers cannot be described as exceedingly digitalized but show potential adoption rates of 15–20% within the next five years for technologies such as barn robotics, section control, variable-rate applications, and maps from satellite data. Established use of entry technologies (e.g., automatic milking systems, digital field records, automatic steering systems) increased the probability of adoption of additional technologies. Among the most used technologies, the current focus is on user-friendly automation solutions that reduce farmers’ workload. Identifying current equipment and technology trends in small-scale agriculture is essential to strengthen policy efforts to promote digitalization.

The Future of Agricultural Jobs in View of Robotization

Robotics and computerization have drastically changed the agricultural production sector and thus moved it into a new automation era. Robots have historically been used for carrying out routine tasks that require physical strength, accuracy, and repeatability, whereas humans are used to engage with more value-added tasks that need reasoning and decision-making skills. On the other hand, robots are also increasingly exploited in several non-routine tasks that require cognitive skills. This technological evolution will create a fundamental and an unavoidable transformation of the agricultural occupations landscape with a high social and economic impact in terms of jobs creation and jobs destruction. To that effect, the aim of the present work is two-fold: (a) to map agricultural occupations in terms of their cognitive/manual and routine/non-routine characteristics and (b) to assess the susceptibility of each agricultural occupation to robotization. Seventeen (17) agricultural occupations were reviewed in relation to the characteristics of each individual task they entail and mapped onto a two-dimensional space representing the manual versus cognitive nature and the routine versus non-routine nature of an occupation. Subsequently, the potential for robotization was investigated, again concerning each task individually, and resulted in a weighted average potential adoption rate for each one of the agricultural occupations. It can be concluded that most of the occupations entail manual tasks that need to be performed in a standardised manner. Considering also that almost 81% of the agricultural work force is involved with these activities, it turns out that there is strong evidence for possible robotization of 70% of the agricultural domain, which, in turn, could affect 56% of the total annual budget dedicated to agricultural occupations. The presented work silhouettes the expected transformation of occupational landscape in agricultural production as an effort for a subsequent identification of social threats in terms of unemployment and job and wages polarization, among others, but also of opportunities in terms of emerged skills and training requirements for a social sustainable development of agricultural domain.

Awareness and adoption of positive selection technology among yam farmers in West Africa

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate how awareness influences the adoption of positive selection (PS) technology among smallholder yam farmers in West Africa. PS has the potential of increasing yield and reducing disease incidence and severity in yam production.Design/methodology/approachThis paper applies the average treatment effect (ATE) methodology to estimate the rates of awareness and adoption of the PS technology and associated factors using data from 678 smallholder seed yam farmers in Ghana and Nigeria.FindingsThe results indicate that the actual adoption rates of PS technology are 58 and 55%, while the potential adoption rates are estimated at 89.5 and 79.3% for Ghana and Nigeria, respectively, if the PS technology was fully disseminated. This leads to adoption gaps of 31.7 and 24.8%, respectively, for Ghana and Nigeria stemming from incomplete awareness of the PS among the population of yam growing farmers. The PS adoption is high among the educated young farmers who are members of farmer based organizations and participate in demonstrations.Practical implicationsPromotional efforts for enhancing awareness and adoption of PS should target educated youth willing to participate in field demonstrations and should focus on scaling up of PS technology to ensure quality farmer saved seed yams and enhance yam productivity in West Africa.Originality/valueThe introduction of PS in seed yam production is quite recent also its introduction to seed yam farmers in West Africa. Subsequently, a better understanding of what the adoption status would be should everyone in the population of yam farmers are aware of PS is vital for policy, research and development.

Adoption of dual-purpose sweetpotato varieties under partial population exposure in Rwanda: Insights from an African plant breeding programme

As part of the Green Revolution, plant breeding programmes such as the African Centre for Crop Improvement have trained scientists to breed crop varieties in Africa to address the challenges of low productivity. However, exposure to and adoption of these varieties is somewhat modest, and there is also a scarcity of empirical studies on the drivers of exposure and adoption. Using data from Rwanda, the counterfactual treatment effect framework was used to estimate observed and potential adoption rates, as well as the drivers of exposure and adoption of dual-purpose sweetpotato varieties bred for both food and feed, under partial exposure to information. The results show that if the entire target farming population had been aware of the varieties, the adoption rate could have been up to 70% instead of the observed rate of 42%, indicating a 28% adoption gap due to partial diffusion. The findings indicate that once these varieties have been exposed, there is scope for further expansion of their cultivation. Key drivers of variety exposure and adoption include membership of farmer groups, participation in demonstration fields, and access to extension services. Thus, conscious efforts to minimize information constraints are a prerequisite for unlocking this adoption puzzle.

Factors for adoption of artificial insemination technology in pig: evidence from small-scale pig production system.

The average treatment estimation framework was used to estimate the actual and potential adoption rates of artificial insemination technology in pig and their determinants using responses of 390 randomly selected pig farmers. The sample adoption rate of artificial insemination technology in pig is estimated to be 16% while the potential adoption rate is estimated at 47%. Incomplete diffusion or exposure of the technology in the population has lead to significant adoption gap of 31%. Result of the average treatment estimation probit model for determinants of adoption revealed the existence of significant difference in the coefficients and magnitude of marginal effects compared to the classic adoption model. Results showed that variables such as age of household head, piggery farming experience, maximum number of pigs reared in a year during the last 5years, number of breeding sows, distance to artificial insemination provider centre, access to extension services and participation in training and demonstration programmes on pig were the significant determinants for adoption of artificial insemination technology in small-scale pig production system.

Uptake of Climate-Smart Agricultural Technologies and Practices: Actual and Potential Adoption Rates in the Climate-Smart Village Site of Mali

Understanding the level of adoption of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) technologies and practices and its drivers is needed to spur large-scale uptake of CSA in West Africa. This paper used the Average Treatment Effect framework to derive consistent parametric estimators of the potential adoption rates of eight CSA technologies and practices in the Climate-Smart Village (CSV) site of Mali. A total of 300 household heads were randomly selected within the CSV site for data collection. Results showed significant differences in the observed and potential adoption rates of the CSA technologies and practices (drought tolerant crop varieties, micro-dosing, organic manure, intercropping, contour farming, farmer managed natural regeneration, agroforestry and climate information service). The most adopted technology was the organic manure (89%) while the least adopted was the intercropping (21%). The observed adoption rate varied from 39% to 77% according to the CSA options while the potential adoption rates of the technologies and practices ranged from 55% to 81%. This implies an adoption gap of 2% to 16% due to the incomplete diffusion (lack of awareness) of CSA technologies and practices which must be addressed by carrying out more actions to disseminate these technologies in the CSV. Results showed that education, number of workers in the household, access to subsidies, and training have a positive effect on the adoption of most of the CSA technologies and practices. The adoption of drought tolerant varieties and micro-dosing are positively correlated with access to subsidies and training. The study suggests that efforts should be focused concomitantly on the diffusion of CSA options as well as the lifting of their adoption barriers.

Determinants of actual and potential adoption of improved indigenous chicken under asymmetrical exposure conditions in rural Kenya

We employ the average treatment effects approach to account for asymmetrical information exposure on a sample of 744 farmers in Kisii and Nyamira counties, Kenya, to estimate the actual and potential adoption of a new chicken cross breed. The actual adoption rate of the Kuroiler chicken was 10 percent while the potential adoption rate was 13 percent, dependent on the entire population being aware of and knowledgeable about the new breed. We also observed an adoption gap of 3 and 1 percent due to lack of awareness and attribute knowledge respectively. The factors that influence awareness and attribute knowledge of the new breed were different. Besides, ownership of land title deeds increased adoption while age, distance to tarmac and off-farm income had a negative effect on adoption. The new chicken breed needs to be promoted as a niche enterprise given its low adoption potential even when all farmers are aware of it and have knowledge of its attributes. There is also need for the inclusion of awareness and attribute knowledge messages in the promotion initiatives of the chicken in order to boost its adoption. Moreover, government policy needs to support issuance of title deeds to enhance adoption as well as tarmacking of roads to ease market access.

Heterogeneous seed access and information exposure: implications for the adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties in Uganda

Frequent droughts in sub-Saharan Africa imply water stress for rainfed agriculture and, ultimately, food insecurity, underlining the region’s vulnerability to climate change. Yet, in the maize-growing areas, farmers have been given new drought-coping options following the release and availability of drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs). These varieties are being disseminated through the National Agricultural Research and Extension Systems in collaboration with seed companies; however, their adoption still appears somewhat modest, and empirical studies on their adoption potential and associated drivers are scarce. We use empirical data from Uganda to estimate the actual and potential adoption rates and the adoption determinants of DTMVs under information and seed access constraints. Adoption rates for DTMVs could have been up to 22% in 2015 instead of the observed sample adoption rate of 14% if the whole population had been exposed to them. The adoption rate could increase to 30% if seed were availed to the farming population and to 47% if seed were sold at a more affordable price to farmers. The observed adoption rate of 14% implies gaps in the potential adoption rates of 8%, 16%, and 33% because of a lack of awareness, a lack of seed access, and high seed prices, respectively. The findings underscore the role of both market and non-market-based approaches and the potential to further scale the cultivation of DTMVs in Uganda.

Diffusion and adoption of Integrated Striga Management (ISM) technologies among smallholder maize farmers in rural northern Nigeria

This study estimated the actual and potential adoption rates of Integrated Striga Management (ISM) technologies, among smallholder maize farmers in rural northern Nigeria, using the treatment effect framework. The results revealed a significant overall adoption rate of 55% of the targeted population while 83.5% of the farmers were exposed to the ISM practices. With such an incomplete diffusion of the ISM technologies, the study estimated potential adoption rate to be 68.2%, while the actual adoption (JEA) rate was estimated to be 58.3% resulting in an adoption gap of 9.9% due to incomplete diffusion/exposure. In addition, diffusion and adoption of ISM technologies were found to be influenced by factors such as famer's years of farming experience, total farm size under maize cultivation, cooperative society's membership, attendance of farm workshop/seminars, on-farm trials and field days among others. Policy implications for increase productivity and food security through ISM technology diffusion and adoption were discussed.

Supporting the Development and Adoption of Automatic Lameness Detection Systems in Dairy Cattle: Effect of System Cost and Performance on Potential Market Shares.

Simple SummaryMost prototypes of systems to automatically detect lameness in dairy cattle are still not available on the market. Estimating their potential adoption rate could support developers in defining development goals towards commercially viable and well-adopted systems. We simulated the potential market shares of such prototypes to assess the effect of altering the system cost and detection performance on the potential adoption rate. We found that system cost and lameness detection performance indeed substantially influence the potential adoption rate. In order for farmers to prefer automatic detection over current visual detection, the usefulness that farmers attach to a system with specific characteristics should be higher than that of visual detection. As such, we concluded that low system costs and high detection performances are required before automatic lameness detection systems become applicable in practice.Most automatic lameness detection system prototypes have not yet been commercialized, and are hence not yet adopted in practice. Therefore, the objective of this study was to simulate the effect of detection performance (percentage missed lame cows and percentage false alarms) and system cost on the potential market share of three automatic lameness detection systems relative to visual detection: a system attached to the cow, a walkover system, and a camera system. Simulations were done using a utility model derived from survey responses obtained from dairy farmers in Flanders, Belgium. Overall, systems attached to the cow had the largest market potential, but were still not competitive with visual detection. Increasing the detection performance or lowering the system cost led to higher market shares for automatic systems at the expense of visual detection. The willingness to pay for extra performance was €2.57 per % less missed lame cows, €1.65 per % less false alerts, and €12.7 for lame leg indication, respectively. The presented results could be exploited by system designers to determine the effect of adjustments to the technology on a system’s potential adoption rate.

Impacts of exposure and access to seed on the adoption of dual-purpose Cowpea and Groundnut varieties in Ghana

Dual-purpose cowpea (DPC) and dual-purpose groundnut (DPG) varieties provide good yields, improved soil fertility through nitrogen fixation, and, at the same time, provide large amounts of good quality fodder to be used as feed or manure in crop-livestock integrated farming systems in Ghana. Hence, these varieties play a significant role in improving the productivity and efficiency of crop-livestock systems in Ghana. This paper estimates the population potential adoption rates of the DPC and DPG varieties and their determinants among integrated crop-livestock farmers in Ghana when there is full access to complete and accurate information and access to the seed by farmers. Because these varieties have been newly introduced, not all farmers are aware of them nor have access to the seed. Using cross-sectional data from 608 farmers, this paper applies the average-treatment-effect method to estimate the population potential adoption rates of the DPC and DPG varieties and coefficients of their determinants among integrated crop-livestock farmers. The result shows that, potential population adoption rates of DPC and DPG could reach 78% and 85%, if all farmers have knowledge about the varieties, and up to 83% and 94%, respectively, if all the farmers have knowledge and access to seed. These results indicate that there are adoption gaps of 42% and 47% due to incomplete knowledge of DPC and DPG and 47% and 55% due to incomplete access to seed of the respective varieties. The adoption gaps suggest that there is still potential for increasing the adoption rates of these dual purpose legumes among crop-livestock farmers in Ghana if exposure and access to seed of the varieties are universal among the farmers. Also farmers with access to extension, research institutes and credit are more likely to be exposed, have access to the seed and adopt the varieties.

Determinants of agricultural technology adoption under partial population awareness: the case of pigeonpea in Malawi

There is exhaustive literature on technology adoption rates and the relationship between technology adoption and relevant socioeconomic and policy variables. Yet adoption estimates derived from the application of standard techniques such as the probit and tobit yield biased estimates. This paper applies the modern evaluation technique: the counterfactual outcome framework to data from about 400 households in Malawi to assess the patterns of diffusion and adoption of improved pigeonpea varieties and their determinants. We find the sample adoption rate of improved varieties to be 14 % while the potential adoption rate if the improved varieties were widely disseminated is estimated at 41 %. The adoption gap resulting from the incomplete exposure to the improved pigeonpea is 27 %. Moreover, adoption is also found to be high among female-headed households, older farmers and those with access to credit. The findings suggest that for increased adoption, there is need for increased involvement of extension workers is the dissemination of information about improved pigeonpea varieties, a robust pigeonpea seed system to increase seed availability to farmers as well as the need for improved access to credit.

Adoptability and effectiveness of livestock emission reduction techniques in Australia’s temperate high-rainfall zone

Significant research has been conducted on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation techniques for ruminant livestock farming, however putting these techniques into practice on-farm requires consideration of adoptability by livestock producers. We modelled the adoptability of a range of livestock greenhouse gas abatement techniques using data from farm case studies and industry surveys, then compared the effectiveness of several techniques in reducing emissions intensity and net farm emissions. The influence of the Australian Government Emissions Reduction Fund on adoptability was included by modelling techniques with and without the requirements of an Australian Government Emissions Reduction Fund project. Modelled adoption results were compared with data obtained from surveys of livestock farmers in northern Tasmania, Australia. Maximum adoption levels of the greenhouse gas mitigation techniques ranged from 34% to 95% and the time required to reach 90% of the peak adoption levels ranged from 3.9 to 14.9 years. Techniques with the lowest adoption levels included providing supplements to optimise rumen energy : protein ratio and feeding high-lipid diets. Techniques with the highest adoptability involved improved ewe reproductive efficiency, with more fertile flocks having higher adoption rates. Increasing liveweight gain of young stock so animals reached slaughter liveweight 5–7 weeks earlier (early finishing) and joining maiden ewes at 8 months instead of 18 months had the fastest adoption rates. Techniques which increased net emissions and reduced emissions per liveweight sold (emissions intensity) had higher adoptability due to profit advantages associated with greater meat and wool production, whereas some techniques that reduced both net emissions and emissions intensity had lower adoptability and/or longer delays before peak adoption because of complexity and costs associated with implementation, or lack of extension information. Techniques that included an Australian Government Emissions Reduction Fund project had reduced maximum adoption levels and reduced rate of adoption due to difficulty of implementation and higher cost. Adopting pastures with condensed tannins reduced net emissions, emissions intensity and had high adoption potential, but had a long delay before peak adoption levels were attained, suggesting the technique may be worthy of increased development and extension investment. These results will be of benefit to livestock farmers, policymakers and extension practitioners. Programs designed to mitigate livestock greenhouse gas should consider potential adoption rates by agricultural producers and time of implementation before embarking on new research themes.

Environmental Benefits of Wireless Sensor-based Irrigation Networks: Case-study Projections and Potential Adoption Rates

We describe and estimate the potential environmental benefits associated with the adoption of wireless sensor irrigation networks (WSIN) in United States ornamental crop production. Benefit estimates are based on results from on-farm research conducted during the previous three years, using both conservative and optimistic assumptions about the levels of WSIN technology adoption. We project reductions in water use and air and water emissions for six U.S. agricultural regions, the U.S. overall, and the six states that make up the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Based on these analyses, an average nationwide WSIN adoption rate of 50% in ornamental operations would result in annual water use savings of ≈223 billion liters (enough for 400,000 U.S. households annually) or a 25% reduction in total water use for all ornamental production. Reductions in annual carbon dioxide emissions, assuming only the reduced energy use from pumping less water was 36,232 Mg (equivalent to removing 7500 cars annually). Reduced fertilizer applications and more efficient irrigation resulted in reductions of 282,000 kg nitrogen and 182,000 kg phosphorous. These efficiency gains and nutrient discharge reductions have been shown to generate significant profits for growers, but would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to achieve using conventional urban or agricultural best management practices (BMPs). If WSIN technologies are adopted in other areas of specialty horticulture (e.g., fruit, vegetable, and nut production) or in agronomic crops [e.g., corn (Zea mays) and wheat (Triticum sp.)], the indirect and induced private and environmental benefits will likely be much higher. Since the environmental benefits of WSIN technologies depend critically on adoption rates, we also briefly describe potential pathways to increase WSIN adoption such as providing technical assistance or offering financing or loan guarantees.

Estimating the Actual and Potential Adoption Rates and Determinants of NERICA Rice Varieties in Nigeria

The paper uses the average treatment effect (ATE) to estimate the population potential adoption rates of the New Rice for Africa (NERICA) varieties in Nigeria when awareness and access to their seed are not constrained to farmers. It thus extends previous works in the literature that have focused on estimating potential adoption rates when only awareness of technology is not a constraint to farmers. The adoption gaps because of lack of awareness and access to seed, and the determinants of adoption are estimated as well. Results show that the potential NERICA adoption rate in Nigeria will be 54% if the entire population is aware and up to 62% if they have access to NERICA seed. The actually observed 19% adoption rate implies a population adoption gap of 35% and 43% because of lack of awareness and access to NERICA seed, respectively. It is also inferred from these results that, when awareness is not a constraint, about 8% of the population will fail to adopt NERICA because of lack of access to its seed. Also farmers with secondary education and farmers with access to extension services are more likely to adopt NERICA than farmers without them.

Determinants of diffusion and adoption of improved technology for rice parboiling in Benin

The widespread use of traditional rice-parboiling methods in Benin leads to poor quality of final rice. To address this problem, the national agricultural research institute of Benin and Africa Rice Center have developed improved rice parboiling technology. An educational video developed by AfricaRice was used for it diffusion. Women have expressed high interest in the use of the technology and have reported that it helps increase the quality of their final rice despite its' relatively high cost. This paper uses the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) framework and data collected from 200 women rice parboilers in central Benin to estimate the actual and potential adoption rates of this technology and the determinants of its diffusion and adoption. 85% of the sampled women were exposed to the technology in 2008. With this incomplete diffusion, the actual adoption rate is 67%, whereas the potential adoption rate is estimated to be 75%. Being member of a parboilers association'' and Participation in video are positively associated with knowledge and adoption of this technology. This indicates that support and promotion of women parboilers associations is a means to increase technology uptake and access and video-supported training is an extension tool to promote agricultural technology awareness and adoption.

Multi-scale analysis of agricultural development: A modelling approach for Ilocos Norte, Philippines

Decisions and policies that have implications on allocation of resources are made at different levels. Goals at different scales may be conflicting and decisions at one scale have consequences for those at other scales. Performing analyses at more than one scale is, therefore necessary in analysing future options for resource use. This paper illustrates the use of a multi-scale method enabling assessment of multi-purpose natural resource management options. Three examples of analyses that it allows are presented for Ilocos Norte province in the Philippines, at the farm household, municipal (Batac municipality) and provincial levels. Results show that: (1) Differences in resource endowments of farm households strongly affect the potential adoption rates of five well-defined alternative technologies. (2) Limited markets, inadequate infrastructure and resource endowments of farm households have large effects on resource use and goal achievement in the municipality. Not including these factors in a resource use analysis results in a so-called aggregation bias. As these are significant, ignoring them may result in misleading simulation results and policy conclusions. The aggregation bias resulting from assuming spatially fixed input and output prices is significant for Batac, which has poor farm-to-market roads. This suggests large potential benefits from improving infrastructure. The factors investigated suggest that aggregate income in the municipality is most strongly affected by the size of the market for some vegetables. (3) The differences in resource allocations resulting from prioritizing objectives at different levels reveal potential conflicts. The municipal income was highest with crops which pose more risk to farmers; our farm household analysis shows that farmers tend not to select too much of these crops. Similarly, the provincial income is highest when resources in the province are allocated such that more of the staple crop rice and less of the highly profitable cash crops are cultivated in Batac, resulting in lower income for the municipality. It is anticipated that the presented multi-scale approach will provide valuable information for joint-learning, policy discussions and decision-making regarding agricultural land use.

DIFFUSION AND ADOPTION OF NERICA RICE VARIETIES IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

Because of their promises to combine the high yielding quality of the Asian rice with the local adaptability of the African rice, the New Rice for Africa (NERICA) rice varieties, which have won its creator Monty Jones the 2004 World Food Prize, are raising hopes for increased rice productivity in Africa. We use data from a sample of 1,500 farmers to consistently estimate the NERICA actual and potential adoption rates and determinants in Cote d’Ivoire. The NERICA actual adoption rate in 2000 is estimated to be 4%, although its potential adoption rate is estimated at 27%. The estimated 23% population “adoption gap” (difference between the 27% potential adoption rate and the 4% actual adoption rate) in 2000, which is because of solely to the limited diffusion of the NERICA in the population in 2000, suggests a large potential adoption impact that could be realized by a successful NERICA dissemination project.