Estimating potential adoption rate of electric vehicles in urban logistics

Abstract

ABSTRACT This research presents an analytical analysis of the factors related to the preference for using electric vehicles, aimed at estimating their potential adoption in urban freight transport. We employed choice modeling to assess the trade-offs among various attributes associated with Electric Freight Vehicles (EFVs) and predicted the probabilities of EFV adoption within urban freight fleets. This estimation is based on an industry survey and real delivery data from a retail firm. Our findings indicate that electric vehicles could be utilized in approximately 32% of the deliveries for the case company. This, in turn, corresponds to a notable 26% reduction in CO2 emissions resulting from delivery operations. Furthermore, our model enabled us to expand the scope of our analysis to the city level, using Istanbul as a specific example. Our illustration demonstrates that, under the current circumstances, electric vehicles have the potential to account for roughly 25% of all deliveries in Istanbul.