Postseismic Processes Research Articles

Quantifying slip balance in the earthquake cycle: Coseismic slip model constrained by interseismic coupling

AbstractThe long‐term slip on faults has to follow, on average, the plate motion, while slip deficit is accumulated over shorter timescales (e.g., between the large earthquakes). Accumulated slip deficits eventually have to be released by earthquakes and aseismic processes. In this study, we propose a new inversion approach for coseismic slip, taking interseismic slip deficit as prior information. We assume a linear correlation between coseismic slip and interseismic slip deficit and invert for the coefficients that link the coseismic displacements to the required strain accumulation time and seismic release level of the earthquake. We apply our approach to the 2011M9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake and the 2004M6 Parkfield earthquake. Under the assumption that the largest slip almost fully releases the local strain (as indicated by borehole measurements), our results suggest that the strain accumulated along the Tohoku‐Oki earthquake segment has been almost fully released during the 2011M9 rupture. The remaining slip deficit can be attributed to the postseismic processes. Similar conclusions can be drawn for the 2004M6 Parkfield earthquake. We also estimate the required time of strain accumulation for the 2004M6 Parkfield earthquake to be ~25 years (confidence interval of [17, 43] years), consistent with the observed average recurrence time of ~22 years forM6 earthquakes in Parkfield. For the Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, we estimate the recurrence time of ~500–700 years. This new inversion approach for evaluating slip balance can be generally applied to any earthquake for which dense geodetic measurements are available.

Investigation of coseismic and postseismic processes using in situ measurements of seismic velocity variations in an underground mine

AbstractThe in situ mechanical response of a rock mass to a sudden dynamic and static stress change is still poorly known. To tackle this question, we conducted an experiment in an underground mine to examine (1) the influence of dynamic and static stress perturbations on seismic velocities, (2) elastic static stress changes, and (3) induced earthquake activity associated with the blast and removal of a portion of hard rock. We accurately (0.01%) measured seismic velocity variations with ambient seismic noise correlations, located aftershock activity, and performed elastic static stress modeling. Overall, we observe that the blast induced a sudden decrease in seismic velocities over the entire studied area, which we interpreted as the damage due to the passing of strong seismic waves. This sudden process is followed by a slow relaxation lasting up to 5 days, while seismic activity returns to its background level after 2 days. In some locations, after the short‐term effects of the blast have subsided, the seismic velocities converge to new baseline levels and permanent changes in seismic velocity become visible. After comparing the spatial pattern of permanent seismic velocity changes with elastic static stress modeling, we infer that the permanent seismic velocity changes are due to the change in the static volumetric stress induced by the removal of a solid portion of rock by the blast. To our knowledge, this is the first observation of noise‐based permanent seismic velocity changes associated with static stress changes.

Gravity-driven postseismic deformation following the Mw 6.3 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake.

The present work focuses on the postseismic deformation observed in the region of L’Aquila (central Italy) following the Mw 6.3 earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009. A new, 16-month-long dataset of COSMO-SkyMed SAR images was analysed using the Persistent Scatterer Pairs interferometric technique. The analysis revealed the existence of postseismic ground subsidence in the mountainous rocky area of Mt Ocre ridge, contiguous to the sedimentary plain that experienced coseismic subsidence. The postseismic subsidence was characterized by displacements of 10 to 35 mm along the SAR line of sight. In the Mt Ocre ridge, widespread morphological elements associated with gravitational spreading have been previously mapped. We tested the hypothesis that the postseismic subsidence of the Mt Ocre ridge compensates the loss of equilibrium induced by the nearby coseismic subsidence. Therefore, we simulated the coseismic and postseismic displacement fields via the finite element method. We included the gravitational load and fault slip and accounted for the geometrical and rheological characteristics of the area. We found that the elastoplastic behaviour of the material under gravitational loading best explains the observed postseismic displacement. These findings emphasize the role of gravity in the postseismic processes at the fault scale.

Crustal deformation in the New Madrid seismic zone and the role of postseismic processes

AbstractGlobal Navigation Satellite System data across the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) in the central United States over the period from 2000 through 2014 are analyzed and modeled with several deformation mechanisms including the following: (1) creep on subsurface dislocations, (2) postseismic frictional afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation from the 1811–1812 and 1450 earthquakes in the NMSZ, and (3) regional strain. In agreement with previous studies, a dislocation creeping at about 4 mm/yr between 12 and 20 km depth along the downdip extension of the Reelfoot fault reproduces the observations well. We find that a dynamic model of postseismic frictional afterslip from the 1450 and February 1812 Reelfoot fault events can explain this creep. Kinematic and dynamic models involving the Cottonwood Grove fault provide minimal predictive power. This is likely due to the smaller size of the December 1811 event on the Cottonwood Grove fault and a distribution of stations better suited to constrain localized strain across the Reelfoot fault. Regional compressive strain across the NMSZ is found to be less than 3 × 10−9/yr. If much of the present‐day surface deformation results from afterslip, it is likely that many of the earthquakes we see today in the NMSZ are aftershocks from the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes. Despite this conclusion, our results are consistent with observations and models of intraplate earthquake clustering. Given this and the recent paleoseismic history of the region, we suggest that seismic hazard is likely to remain significant.

Tempo-Spatial Impact of the 2011 M9 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake on Eastern China

We investigate in this study the impact of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake on Eastern China, and particularly focus on postseismic relaxation processes. We first invert for postseismic slip on the fault plane based on the GPS measurements of GEONET in Japan. Then, we use a layered rheological model to theoretically investigate the deep viscoelastic relaxation process. The Tohoku-Oki mainshock produced significant strain changes in Eastern China, dominantly east–west-oriented extension with a level close to or higher than the tectonic strain rates at the east border of China. The strain due to the postseismic stress relaxations has similar patterns as those produced by the mainshock, but with smaller magnitudes. The Tohoku-Oki earthquake impacts Eastern China for decades, but dominantly in the first 2–3 years after the mainshock and caused an apparent displacements and decrease of seismicity rate in Northeast China. For a long-term of 100 years, the Tohoku-Oki earthquake produces about 10 % of the tectonic strain rates in Eastern China, due to viscoelastic relaxation at the deep depth.

Aftershock triggering by postseismic stresses: A study based on Coulomb rate‐and‐state models

AbstractThe spatiotemporal clustering of earthquakes is a feature of medium‐ and short‐term seismicity, indicating that earthquakes interact. However, controversy exists about the physical mechanism behind aftershock triggering: static stress transfer and reloading by postseismic processes have been proposed as explanations. In this work, we use a Coulomb rate‐and‐state model to study the role of coseismic and postseismic stress changes on aftershocks and focus on two processes: creep on the main shock fault plane (afterslip) and secondary aftershock triggering by previous aftershocks. We model the seismic response to Coulomb stress changes using the Dieterich constitutive law and focus on two events: the Parkfield,Mw= 6.0, and the Tohoku,Mw= 9.0, earthquakes. We find that modeling secondary triggering systematically improves the maximum log likelihood fit of the sequences. The effect of afterslip is more subtle and difficult to assess for near‐fault events, where model errors are largest. More robust conclusions can be drawn for off‐fault aftershocks: following the Tohoku earthquake, afterslip promotes shallow crustal seismicity in the Fukushima region. Simple geometrical considerations indicate that afterslip‐induced stress changes may have been significant on trench parallel crustal fault systems following several of the largest recorded subduction earthquakes. Moreover, the time dependence of afterslip strongly enhances its triggering potential: seismicity triggered by an instantaneous stress change decays more quickly than seismicity triggered by gradual loading, and as a result we find afterslip to be particularly important between few weeks and few months after the main shock.

Local deformation and rheological parameters by measurements in Talaya station gallery (Baikal region)

Tilt measurements have been taken in the underground gallery at Talaya Seismological Station for almost three decades, from March 1985 till 2014. Based on such data, deformation curves were constructed and analysed in the frame of elastic and viscous-elastic models of the geological medium. From estimated annual deformation rates, it became possible to reveal deformation cycles ranging from 3 to 18 years with amplitudes up to 5 arc-seconds (2·10–5). For the bedrock in the Talaya stream valley, the elastic modulus was estimated at 20 GPa. In frame of the Kelvin viscoelastic model, the apparent viscosity of the medium was estimated at 1019 Pa·sec by deformation delay curve for 1989–2014 epoch. Observed vertical rates were used to estimate the size of the studied area (from 0.1 km to 6.0 km). The values estimated in our experimental investigation are used in a wide range of geophysical studies: modelling tectonic, co-seismic and post-seismic processes.

The surge of great earthquakes from 2004 to 2014

During the decade from mid-2004 to mid-2014 18 great (Mw≥8.0) earthquakes occurred globally (∼1.8 per year), compared to 71 from 1900 to mid-2004 (∼0.68 per year), yielding a short-term rate increase of 265%. Six events had Mw≥8.5, larger than any prior event since the 1965 Rat Islands earthquake. The December 26, 2004 Mw 9.2 Sumatra earthquake had the longest recorded rupture length of 1300+ km and a rupture duration exceeding 450 s. The largest recorded strike-slip earthquake (Mw 8.7) occurred in the Indo–Australian plate on April 11, 2012. The largest recorded deep focus earthquake (Mw 8.3) occurred under the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013. While this overall surge of activity has not been demonstrated to be causally linked, regional spatio-temporal clustering is clearly evident for great events along the Sumatra, Kuril and Tonga subduction zones, and longer-range interactions have been established for global seismicity and seismic tremor at lower magnitudes following some of the events. This recent decade of intense great earthquake activity coincided with vastly expanded global networks of seismometers, GPS stations, tsunami gauges, and new satellite imaging capabilities such as InSAR and LandSAT interferometry and gravity measurements by GRACE and GOCE, enabling unprecedented analyses of precursory, co-seismic and post-seismic processes around the subduction zone environments where most of the events occurred. Individual events such as the March 11, 2011, Tohoku, Japan Mw 9.0 earthquake produced more ground motion and tsunami recordings than available for all great earthquakes of the last century collectively. Joint inversion and modeling of the diverse data sets exploit complementary sensitivity of the signals to different aspects of the earthquake processes. Major advances have been achieved in quantifying frictional locking and strain accumulation prior to some great events and in relating it to co-seismic slip heterogeneity. Many surprising aspects of these well-quantified great earthquakes have been manifested, associated with their rupture dimensions, tectonic location, compound faulting, triggering interactions, slow slip and foreshock migration precursors, aftershock complexity, and depth-varying seismic radiation characteristics. Regions with potential for near-future great ruptures include mature seismic gaps along the Mentawai Islands and northern Chile, as well as western North America and the Himalayan front, so more great earthquake activity can certainly be anticipated.

Recent advances of computing coseismic deformations in theory and applications

This paper reviews the recent advances in computing coseismic deformations, and their contributions to seismology and geodesy. At first, an overview on the history of the dislocation theory development is given in the introduction section. Then, emphasis are given on some new developments through few examples in the following sections, such as the new dislocation theory for a 3D Earth model, a new computing scheme on coseismic deflection change of vertical, the relation of dislocation Love number and the conventional Love numbers, the application of dislocation theory applied in satellite gravity observations, the coseismic deformations observed by GRACE, and a new method to determine dislocation Love numbers by GRACE. Furthermore, some advanced theoretical and cases studies are introduced to illustrate how dislocation theory is important in interpret geodetic data, or invert seismic slip for co- and post-seismic processes, using seismic and geodetic data. Final remarks are given in the last section, with discussions, conclusions, comments on existing problems, and expected methods to solve them.

Postseismic Ground Deformation Following the September 2010 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake From TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed, and ALOS InSAR

We evaluate early postseismic deformation after the 2010 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake documented by radar satellite interferometry observations. Applying interferometric techniques to TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed, and ALOS data, we derive evidence for a variety of coupled solid-fluid postseismic processes after the Darfield event. The contractional jog of the Greendale Fault shows a time-dependent subsidence signal during the first ~6 months after the event. We detect a dominant subsidence signal in the epicentral area of the Charing Cross fault and also observe a narrow zone (<; 15km) of right-lateral shear along the eastern end of the Greendale Fault, a likely indication of postseismic afterslip process that is operative there after the event.

Stress changes on major faults caused by 2013 Lushan earthquake and its relationship with 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

On April 20, 2013, an M s7.0 earthquake occurred in Ya’an-Lushan region, Sichuan Province, China, killing and injuring more than one thousand people. Therefore, it is critical to outline the areas with potential aftershocks before reconstruction and re-settlement as to avoid future disasters. Based on the elastic dislocation theory and multi-layered lithospheric model, we calculate the co- and post-seismic stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes to discuss the relationship between M w7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and M s7.0 Lushan earthquake, the influences on the distribution of aftershock caused by the Lushan earthquake, and the stress changes on major faults in this region. It is shown that the Coulomb failure stress increment on the hypocenter of Lushan earthquake caused by the Wenchuan earthquake is about 0.0037–0.0113 MPa. And the possible maximum value (0.0113 MPa) is larger than the threshold of stress triggering. Therefore, the occurrence of Lushan earthquake is probably effectively promoted by the Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock distribution is well explained by the co-seismic stress changes of Lushan earthquake. By the two ends of the rupture of Lushan earthquake with increased Coulomb failure stress, a lack of aftershock recordings indicates the high seismic hazard. The stress accumulation and corresponding seismic hazard on the Kangding-Dafu segment of the Xinshuihe fault, the Beichuan-Yingxiu fault, the Pengxian-Guanxian fault, and the Ya’an fault are further increased by the Lushan earthquake and post-seismic process of Wenchuan earthquake.

Numerical modelling of post-seismic rupture propagation after the Sumatra 26.12.2004 earthquake constrained by GRACE gravity data

In the last decades, the development of the surface and satellite geodetic and geophysical observations brought a new insights into the seismic cycle, documenting new features of inter-, co-, and post-seismic processes. In particular since 2002 satellite mission GRACE provides monthly models of the global gravity field with unprecedented accuracy showing temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field, including those caused by mass redistribution associated with earthquake processes. When combined with GPS measurements, these new data have allowed to assess the relative importance of afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation after the Sumatra 26.12.2004 earthquake. Indeed the observed post-seismic crustal displacements were fitted well by a viscoelastic relaxation model assuming Burgers body rheology for the asthenosphere (60–220 km deep) with a transient viscosity as low as 4 × 10^17 Pas and constant ~ 10^19 Pas steady state viscosity in the 60–660-km depth range. However, even the low-viscosity asthenosphere provides the amplitude of strain which gravity effect does not exceed 50 per cent of the GRACE gravity variations, thus additional localized slip of about 1 m was suggested at downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. Post-seismic slip at coseismic rupture or its downdip extension has been suggested by several authors but the mechanism of the post-seismic fault propagation has never been investigated numerically. Depth and size of localized slip area as well as rate and time decay during the post-seismic stage were either assigned a priory or estimated by fitting real geodesy or gravity data. In this paper we investigate post-seismic rupture propagation by modelling two consequent stages. First, we run a long-term, geodynamic simulation to self-consistently produce the initial stress and temperature distribution. At the second stage, we simulate a seismic cycle using results of the first step as initial conditions. The second short-term simulation involves three substeps, including additional stress accumulation after part of the subduction channel was locked; spontaneous coseismic slip; formation and development of damage zones producing afterslip. During the last substep post-seismic stress leads to gradual ~1 m slip localized at three faults around ~100-km downdip extension of the coseismic rupture. We used the displacement field caused by the slip to calculate pressure and density variations and to simulate gravity field variations. Wavelength of calculated gravity anomaly fits well to that of the real data and its amplitude provides about 60 per cent of the observed GRACE anomaly. Importantly, the surface displacements caused by the estimated afterslip are much smaller than those registered by GPS networks. As a result cumulative effect of Burgers rheology viscoelastic relaxation (which explains measured GPS displacements and about a half of gravity variations) plus post-seismic slip predicted by damage rheology model (which causes much smaller surface displacements but provides another half of the GRACE gravity variations) fits well to both sets of the real data. Hence, the presented numerical modelling based on damage rheology supports the process of post-seismic downdip rupture propagation previously hypothesized from the GRACE gravity data.

Post-seismic relaxation process and vertical deformation following the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China

Abstract: The post-seismic horizontal and vertical deformations following the 2008 M s8.0 Wenchuan earthquake are inferred from GPS and precise leveling data. The post-seismic relaxation process is measured using CPS data from campaign stations located around the Longmenshan fault, and the derived decay time constant is 12 days. The evolution of the post-seismic vertical deformation is obtained from precise leveling data measured near the surface rupture. The results demonstrate that the hanging wall is uplifting and the foot wall is subsiding. The amplitude of the post-seismic deformation is lower than that of the co-seismic deformation. The region with the largest post-seismic displacement is located on the leveling route between Maoxian and Beichuan on the hanging wall.

Modelling of postseismic processes in subduction regions

Large intraplate subduction earthquakes are generally accompanied by prolonged and intense postseismic anomalies. In the present work, viscoelastic relaxation in the upper mantle and the asthenosphere is considered as a main mechanism responsible for the occurrence of such postseismic effects. The study of transient processes is performed on the basis of data on postseismic processes accompanying the first Simushir earthquake on 15 November 2006 and Maule earthquake on 27 February 2010. The methodology of modelling a viscoelastic relaxation process after a large intraplate subduction earthquake is presented. A priori parameters of the selected model describing observed postseismic effects are adjusted by minimizing deviations between modeled surface displacements and actual surface displacements recorded by geodetic methods through solving corresponding inverse problems. The presented methodology yielded estimations of Maxwell’s viscosity of the asthenosphere of the central Kuril Arc and also of the central Chile. Besides, postseismic slip distribution patterns were obtained for the focus of the Simushir earthquake of 15 November 2006 (Mw=8.3) (Figure 3), and distribution patterns of seismic and postseismic slip were determined for the focus of the Maule earthquake of 27 February 2010 (Mw=8.8) (Figure 6). These estimations and patterns can provide for prediction of the intensity of viscoelastic stress attenuation in the asthenosphere; anomalous values should be taken into account as adjustment factors when analyzing inter-seismic deformation in order to ensure correct estimation of the accumulated elastic seismogenic potential.

Postseismic relaxation due to Bhuj earthquake on January 26, 2001: possible mechanisms and processes

Earthquakes cause static stress perturbations in the nearby crust and mantle. Obeying rheological laws, this stress relaxes in a time frame of months to years with the spatial extent of few km to hundreds of km. While postseismic relaxation associated with major inter-plate earthquakes is well established, there have been few opportunities to explore its occurrence following intraplate earthquakes. The M w 7.6 Bhuj earthquake on January 26, 2001 in western India is considered to be an intraplate event and provided a unique opportunity to examine post-earthquake relaxation processes sufficiently away from plate boundaries. To study the characteristics of transient postseismic deformation, six Global Positioning System campaigns were made at 14 sites. The postseismic transients were delineated after removing plate motions from the position time series. Postseismic deformation has been observed at all the sites in the study area. During 2001–2007, the site closest to the epicenter exhibited postseismic deformation of about 30 and 25 mm in the north and east components, respectively. Time series of the NS and EW components of the postseismic transients can be fitted to both logarithmic and exponential functions. Close to the epicenter, the logarithmic function fits well to the initial transient, and an exponential function fits well to the later phases. The remaining sites (located east and west of the epicentral region) exhibited significantly diminished north–south relaxation. Rapidly decaying afterslip and poroelastic mechanisms seem to be responsible for postseismic relaxation in the vicinity of epicenter during the initial period subsequent to the Bhuj earthquake. Postseismic relaxation by viscoelastic flow below the seismogenic zone seems to affect displacements across the entire Bhuj region. This paper presents the characteristics of postseismic transients and deformation processes in the scenario of the highly heterogeneous crust in the Bhuj region.

Analysis of deformation processes in the lithosphere from geodetic measurements based on the example of the San Andreas fault

Analysis of data from permanent GPS observation stations located in tectonically active regions provides for direct observation of deformation processes of the earth's surface which result from elastic interaction of the lithospheric plates and also occur when accumulated stresses are released by seismic events and postseismic processes. This article describes the methodology of applying the regression analysis of time series of data from GPS-stations for identification of individual components of the stations’ displacements caused by the influence of various deformation processes. Modelling of the stations’ displacements caused only by deformations of the marginal zone, wherein the lithospheric plates interact, allows us to study variations of the steady-state deformation in the marginal zone. he proposed methodology is applied to studies of variations of fields of cumulative surface displacements, surface displacement velocity and maximum shear strain velocity which are determined from the GPS data recorded prior to the Parkfield earthquake of 28 September 2004 (Mw=6.0). Combined analysis of the variations of the above-mentioned fields shows that measurable anomalies of the elastic deformation of the transform fault’s edge took place prior to the seismic event of 28 September 2004, and such anomalies were coincident in space and time with the focal area of the future seismic event.

Interplate fault slip along the Japan Trench before the occurrence of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake as inferred from GPS data

A sequence of M 7-class interplate earthquakes and transient postseismic slips following each of these earthquakes occurred along the Japan Trench before the occurrence of the giant earthquake on March 11, 2011. Continuous GPS data detected a significant postseismic deformation with displacements that were much larger than that of the coseismic offset. Moreover, the geodetic inversion results using these observations revealed that the total moment released by these transient slips was much larger than the coseismic ones. This differs from our understanding of the postseismic process that the postseismic deformation and slip are smaller than the coseismic ones. These transient processes may help us understand not only the postseismic process but also the pre-seismic signals indicating the occurrence of the giant earthquake.

Contemporary deformation and stressing rates in Southern Alaska

SUMMARY The subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath North America induces broad scale stressing of the Alaskan crust that has led to the development of the highest mountains in North America, the highest slip rates along some of the longest strike-slip faults on Earth, and widespread seismicity that includes the 1964 M9.2 Alaska earthquake, the second largest ever recorded. These features are a consequence of deformation associated with three primary processes, interseismic loading due to relative plate motions, large earthquakes and postseismic processes. How these mechanisms contribute to the evolution of stress in the Alaskan crust is not well understood. Here we use observed contemporary surface velocities to constrain 2-D and 3-D viscoelastic numerical models of relative Pacific/North American plate motions, coseismic slip associated with the 1964 (M9.2) megathrust event and strike-slip earthquakes on the transform boundary in 1949 (M8.1), 1958 (M7.8) and 1972 (M7.6) (the four largest events prior to the 2002 M7.9 Denali quake), viscoelastic relaxation following these events, and afterslip, to gain insight into how these processes are shaping Alaska today. Results suggest that interseismic deformation and on-going post-seismic deformation following the 1964 earthquake both contribute significantly to the GPS measured contemporary velocity field. Viscoelastic relaxation associated with a mantle with a viscosity of � 10 19 Pa s is required to explain southerly directed velocities that are observed in the Cook Inlet region to well north of the Denali fault. Results also suggest that subduction of the Pacific Plate leads to a broad zone of deformation with high stressing rates concentrated in a band that lies several hundred kilometres from the plate boundary, coeval with the inboard location of the maximum locking depth of the megathrust. Interseismic deformation and stressing rates remain high further inland across the Yakutat microplate, where flat subduction extends the width of the locked plate interface. Calculations show that post-seismic relaxation following the large strike-slip events serves to reload these rupture surfaces while relieving stress on the eastern Denali Fault. Post-seismic relaxation following the 1964 earthquake combined with coseismic stress changes, promoted the triggering of the 2002 Denali quake. Calculations also suggest that over the past 50 years high stress has accumulated on part of the thrust interface to the west and east of the 1964 rupture surface and along the Queen-Charlotte Fault to the south of the 1949 rupture surface.

Predicted reversal and recovery of surface creep on the Hayward fault following the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Offset cultural features suggest that creep rates along the Hayward fault have remained constant since 1920 until the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake despite evidence in the earthquake record of an enduring stress shadow after 1906. We re‐construct the stressing history on the Hayward fault in order to predict when creep, assumed to have slowed, likely resumed at historical rates. The resumption of creep is dependent on the stressing history imposed from postseismic processes. Basic viscoelastic models produce stress histories that allow creep to resume within a couple decades. A detachment zone model for the Bay Area predicts that creep would not resume for 70+ years after the 1906 earthquake, in disagreement with historical creep observations. The recovery of creep is also advanced by potential left‐lateral slip that could have been induced by the 1906 earthquake. Calculations for a friction‐less fault suggest that 30–210 mm of left‐lateral slip could have occurred.

Three-dimensional mechanical models for the June 2000 earthquake sequence in the south Iceland seismic zone

A sequence of earthquakes, including two M w = 6.5 events, occurred in June 2000 in an atypical transform zone located in the southwest of Iceland. The inter-, co-, and post-seismic time intervals of the associated deformation cycle have been well recorded by previous geodetic studies, including GPS and InSAR. Using a numerical code based on a finite-element method, we analyze the influence of structural and rheologic heterogeneities on the earthquake deformation cycle within the south Iceland seismic zone (SISZ). The co-seismic deformation is especially sensitive to the increase of lithospheric stiffness with depth, as shown by a joint inversion of the geodetic data. The estimated distribution of co-seismic slip for the June 21 mainshock is deeper when estimated in a realistic layered lithospheric model than in a homogenous half-space. The geometry of the rheologic layers also plays an important role during the post-seismic interval, when several inter-related processes (poro-elastic effects around the fault plane, afterslip in it, and/or visco-elastic relaxation in the lower crust and/or upper mantle) appear to occur on overlapping time and length scales. We also consider the seismicity, both in its contribution to stress transfer and in its tendency to migrate from east to west. At least six processes may be involved in changing the stress distribution: (1) propagation of seismic waves, (2) changes of static stress caused by major co-seismic slip, (3) cascading seismicity, (4) fluctuations in hydrological conditions, (5) ductile flow of subcrustal rocks, and (6) inter-seismic strain accumulation. All six of these phenomena occurred in the SISZ before, during and after the June 2000 earthquake sequence. By using three-dimensional finite-element models with realistic geometric and rheologic configurations to match the observations, we test the influence of the increase of rigidity with depth and the variable crustal thickness on processes (2), (3), (5) and (6). Inter-seismic strain (6) accumulating in an elastic upper crust that thickens eastward can produce an asymmetric stress distribution. This process may explain the tendency of subsequent earthquakes to migrate from east to west across the south Iceland seismic zone within a single sequence. Yet it cannot explain their timing or the location of the first event. Our modeling with realistic geometric and rheologic configurations suggests that the June 17 earthquake triggered the June 21 event by a combination of several time-dependent post-seismic processes.