Post-fledging Survival Research Articles

Breeding performance and nest-site selection of Woodchat Shrikes Lanius senator near the southern edge of their breeding distribution

Numerous Woodchat Shrike (Lanius senator) populations, and Laniidae in general, are globally declining. A deeper understanding of their breeding ecology, including their nest-site selection and breeding performance, from hatching success to post-fledging survival, could contribute to their conservation. We studied breeding Woodchat Shrikes near the southern edge of their breeding range in Northern Israel, monitoring breeding pairs throughout the breeding season from March to July 2023 in three study areas at the slopes of the Golan Heights in a semi-open shrubland. We collected data on birds’ nesting success, including hatching and fledging success, as well as on breeding pairs’ productivity and post-fledging survival of Woodchat Shrikes. Furthermore, we gathered information on nest-site characteristics. In this part of their range, Woodchat Shrikes breed in relatively high densities, opportunistically selecting nest-sites within the area. Most pairs had at least two brood attempts and up to four were recorded. On average breeding pairs laid 4.63 eggs per brood, with a decreasing brood size later in the season. Breeding performance was not related to the nest-site characteristics with the exception of nest height above the ground, which had a positive influence on nesting success. The breeding performance of Woodchat Shrikes was relatively low compared to other studies, particularly when considering fledging success. Nest predation was likely a predominant cause for nest failures here; however, breeding pairs were able to substantially increase their breeding success with replacement broods. Compared to the low nesting success, the post-fledging survival was relatively high, indicating much higher predation pressure on nests compared to fledglings.

Fitness benefits of alternated chick provisioning in cooperatively breeding carrion crows.

In most bird species, parents raise offspring cooperatively. In some cases, this cooperation extends to helpers-at-the-nest who assist the breeders with a range of tasks. While cooperative food provisioning might merely arise incidentally, as a result of the efforts of carers that act independently from each other, recent studies suggest that birds may coordinate by taking turns in visiting the nest. However, evidence that such coordination emerges because individuals actively respond to each other's behaviour is controversial, and the potential benefits of carers' alternation remain unknown. We addressed this knowledge gap by analysing a multiyear dataset for cooperatively breeding carrion crows Corvus corone, comprising 8693 nest visits across 50 groups. Our results reveal that turn-taking does occur in this species and that all group members, regardless of their sex and social role (breeder/helper), tend to alternate at the nest with other carers rather than to make repeat visits. Importantly, we found that the body mass of nestlings increased significantly with the degree of carers' alternation, possibly because well-coordinated groups provided food at more regular intervals. Using earlier monitoring data, the observed increase in body mass is predicted to substantially boost postfledging survival rates. Our analyses demonstrate that alternation in nestling provisioning has measurable fitness benefits in this study system. This raises the possibility that cooperatively breeding carrion crows, as well as other bird species with similarly coordinated brood provisioning, exhibit specialized behavioural strategies that enable effective alternation.

Extreme events, trophic chain reactions, and shifts in phenotypic selection

Demographic consequences of rapid environmental change and extreme climatic events (ECEs) can cascade across trophic levels with evolutionary implications that have rarely been explored. Here, we show how an ECE in high Arctic Svalbard triggered a trophic chain reaction, directly or indirectly affecting the demography of both overwintering and migratory vertebrates, ultimately inducing a shift in density-dependent phenotypic selection in migratory geese. A record-breaking rain-on-snow event and ice-locked pastures led to reindeer mass starvation and a population crash, followed by a period of low mortality and population recovery. This caused lagged, long-lasting reductions in reindeer carrion numbers and resultant low abundances of Arctic foxes, a scavenger on reindeer and predator of migratory birds. The associated decrease in Arctic fox predation of goose offspring allowed for a rapid increase in barnacle goose densities. As expected according to r- and K-selection theory, the goose body condition (affecting reproduction and post-fledging survival) maximising Malthusian fitness increased with this shift in population density. Thus, the winter ECE acting on reindeer and their scavenger, the Arctic fox, indirectly selected for higher body condition in migratory geese. This high Arctic study provides rare empirical evidence of links between ECEs, community dynamics and evolution, with implications for our understanding of indirect eco-evolutionary impacts of global change.

Post-Fledging Survival and Dispersal of the White-Throated Dipper Cinclus cinclus

The post-fledging period is still an understudied stage of avian life cycle, even in the case of otherwise frequently studied species. The general breeding biology of the White-throated Dipper is known well, but only a few studies have focused on survival and dispersal during the post-fledging period. In this study we report on results revealed by radio-telemetry, a method which has not been used in the species to date. Nestlings (37 individuals from 9 nests) in a mountain population of central Slovakia were radio-tagged on the mean expected fledging age (22 days post-hatch) and monitored daily until death, disappearance or reaching independence. Only 22–32% (depending on the handling of uncertain data) of fledglings survived the first 12 days post-fledging. Predation was the most frequently suspected cause of death. The daily survival rate was markedly lower during the first two days after fledging (0.717–0.758) than later (0.914–0.941). The daily movement distance remained stable during the first week post-fledging and increased around the age of reaching independence (c. 12 days post-fledging). On the other hand, the distance from the natal nest and the within-brood distance (length of river occupied by fledglings from the same nest) increased gradually since fledging. We propose that in our study population the low post-fledging survival could be potentially balanced by frequent renesting and/or double-brooding, timing of which corresponds well with the age of reaching independence when juvenile birds disperse outside the natal territory.

Breeding biology of Red-backed Shrikes (Lanius collurio): distribution, performance and post-fledging survival in Denmark

Agricultural intensification and habitat degradation across Europe have caused declines since the 20th century in populations of birds adapted to open landscapes, such as the Red-backed Shrike (Lanius collurio). Effective conservation strategies require knowledge on species’ breeding biology. To understand the status of the Danish breeding population better, we investigate which factors affect their breeding parameter (i.e. distribution, performance, post-fledging survival and behaviour). Our focus on the post-fledging period addresses present knowledge gaps due to the importance of this, yet under-studied, phase of passerines’ breeding cycle. We studied breeding pairs on different habitat types with Denmark-wide Citizen Science data, complemented by data of local projects in Northern Zealand and Northern Jutland (Denmark). Significantly fewer pairs were found in agricultural habitats and more in forests, semi-natural open habitats and synanthropic habitats. Pairs in forests had a significantly higher breeding productivity compared to agricultural or semi-natural open habitats for data from the years 2000 to 2021. Some project sites showed significantly higher number of fledglings compared to others, indicating that these sites are potential core areas for breeding productivity. Over the last two decades, the mean breeding productivity across Denmark was stable with 2.3 fledglings per successful pair. The survival rate of ringed fledglings increased during the post-fledging period, likely due to their increase in more active and independent behaviour. The relatively low breeding productivity found in this study calls for further studies including detailed data from potentially secondary habitats like agricultural areas to understand the effects of habitat on population fluctuations.

The Role of Food Quantity and Prey Type in Nestling Development of American Kestrels

ABSTRACT Diet is an important component of life history that can vary with, and ultimately determine, individual variation in phenotypically plastic traits. American Kestrels (Falco sparverius) generally have low post-fledging survival rates, which suggests a need to better understand what ecological factors, such as diet, influence nestling maturity. The generalist diet of kestrels makes it unlikely that all nestlings in a population receive the same diet. We investigated how breeding phenology and nestling sex ratio interact with diet metrics (diet diversity, percentage of prey types, rate of prey biomass delivery) and relate to nestling maturity (mass, tarsus length, wing length, hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration). We hypothesized that: (1) phenology and nestling sex ratio would correlate with inter-nest diet variation; (2) diet metrics would be predictive of nestling development; and (3) the manipulation of food quantity through food supplementation would lead to nestlings with greater developmental maturity. We found that inter-nest variation in diet was correlated with breeding phenology and nestling sex ratio, independently. However, the variation in diet was unrelated to nestling maturity. In response to food supplementation, kestrel parents decreased their food-provisioning rate, indicating that food quantity regulates parental care. Male nestlings appeared to benefit from supplementation while females did not. Our data demonstrated high inter-brood variation in nestling diet, and suggested that diet variation interacts with sex to influence growth and development of nestlings, which could potentially be linked to population decline.

Post-fledging survival of Tengmalm’s owl offspring in boreal forests: Interactive effects of varying dynamics of main prey and habitat composition

The knowledge about the mortality rate of offspring is crucial for estimating bird population dynamics and conserving species with declining populations. Parents of predatory birds provide food for their offspring during the post-fledging dependency period, which is frequently described as essential due to inexpert flying skills. Using radio telemetry, we studied fledglings’ probability of dying by starvation and predation in Tengmalms’ owls (Aegolius funereus). Nestlings (21 and 39) from 10 and 14 broods in 2019 and 2021, respectively, were equipped with leg-mounted tags and monitored throughout the post-fledging dependency period in west-central Finland. In total, 28 out of 60 fledglings did not survive the post-fledging dependency period (12 died due to starvation, and 16 were predated). The fledglings’ probability of dying by starvation and predation was 3.7 and 2.4 times higher, respectively, in the decreasing (2019) than during the increasing (2021) abundance of main foods (voles), showing that prey availability is essential for survival during the post-fledging dependency period. The probability of starvation increased with augmenting agricultural lands in the home range and increasing precipitation after fledging, which indicated that parent owls avoided hunting in open areas and during rainy nights. The predation rate during the post-fledging dependency period increased with augmenting cover of old-growth forests in the home range. This result suggested that coverage of old-growth forests is nowadays so small in the study area that they act as ecological traps for newly-fledged owlets. The reason is that the main avian enemies of Tengmalm’s owls’ (goshawks and Ural owls) also prefer old-growth forests for breeding and hunting.

Is green the new black? Black-backed Woodpecker vital rates do not differ between unburned and burned forests within a pyrodiverse landscape

AbstractWoodpeckers often reflect rapid changes to forest health and serve as indicator species to help guide forest management decisions. The Black-backed Woodpecker (Picoides arcticus) is known for its strong association with recently burned forests and is a species of conservation concern due to habitat loss stemming from post-fire management of burned forest. Several studies have found the Black-backed Woodpecker occupying extensive areas of unburned (i.e., green) forests in the western part of its range during the breeding season, raising questions about whether green forests can support viable nesting populations in this region. We studied breeding Black-backed Woodpeckers in southern Oregon, USA to evaluate whether 2 vital rates critical to population recruitment—nest survival and post-fledging survival—differed between green and burned forests. During 2018, 2019, and 2021, we monitored 91 Black-backed Woodpecker nests (n = 34 in green forest, n = 57 in burned forest) and found that neither daily nest survival rate nor reproductive output (i.e., the number of fledglings per successful nest) differed between nests located in green and burned forest; however, nestling body condition was slightly enhanced in green forest. We also quantified survival of recently fledged individuals using VHF radio telemetry and found that the survival rate of birds in green forest was nearly identical to those in burned forest, with most mortalities occurring within 4 weeks of fledging. Our results indicate that Black-backed Woodpeckers in green forests were equally successful at breeding as conspecifics in recently burned forest, although densities of nesting pairs in green forest were lower than those in burned forest. Our findings indicate certain types of green forest, particularly mature lodgepole pine, can support viable populations of the Black-backed Woodpecker in the western portion of its range. This finding has conservation implications given that green forest occupies much of the forested landscape in this region and is often juxtaposed to areas subjected to high severity fire. Therefore, practices that promote pyrodiversity—landscape-level spatial and temporal variability in fire effects—as well as connectivity between green and burned forest within fire-prone landscapes are likely to provide the greatest conservation benefit for this species.

Ontogenetic effects of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird on host offspring.

Nest-sharer avian brood parasites do not evict or otherwise kill host chicks, but instead inflict a range of negative effects on their nestmates that are mediated by interactions between the parasite and host life history traits. Although many of the negative fitness effects of avian brood parasitism are well documented across diverse host species, there remains a paucity of studies that have examined the impacts of parasitism across the entirety of host ontogeny (i.e., from when an egg is laid until independence). More specifically, few studies have examined the impact of brood parasitism on the pre- and post-fledging development, physiology, behavior, and survival of host offspring. To help fill this knowledge gap, we assessed the effects of brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) across the ontogeny (incubation, nestling, and post-fledging period) of nine sympatrically breeding host species in central Illinois, USA; due to sample sizes, impacts on the post-fledging period were only examined in two of the nine species. Specifically, we examined the impact of brood parasitism on ontogenetic markers including the embryonic heart rate, hatching rate, nestling period length, nest survival, and offspring growth and development. Additionally, in species in which we found negative impacts of cowbird parasitism on host nestmate ontogeny, we examined whether the difference in adult size between parasites and their hosts and their hatching asynchrony positively predicted variation in host costs across these focal taxa. We found that costs of cowbird parasitism were most severe during early nesting stages (reduction in the host clutch or brood size) and were predicted negatively by host size and positively by incubation length. In contrast, we only found limited costs of cowbird parasitism on other stages of host ontogeny; critically, post-fledging survival did not differ between host offspring that fledged alongside cowbirds and those that did not. Our findings (i) highlight the direct costs of cowbird parasitism on host fitness, (ii) provide evidence for when (the stage) those costs are manifested, and (iii) may help to explain why many anti-cowbird defenses of hosts have evolved for protection from parasitism during the laying and incubation stages.

Post-fledging survival, movement patterns, and habitat associations of Bendire's Thrashers ( Toxostoma bendirei ) in the Chihuahuan Desert

Post-fledging survival, movement patterns, and habitat associations of Bendire's Thrashers ( Toxostoma bendirei ) in the Chihuahuan Desert

Post-fledging survival, movements, and habitat associations of Gray Vireos in New Mexico

Fischer, S. E., K. Granillo, and H. M. Streby. 2022. Post-fledging survival, movements, and habitat associations of Gray Vireos in New Mexico. Avian Conservation and Ecology 17(1):13. https://doi.org/10.5751/ACE-02053-170113

Effects of Diet and Provisioning Behavior on Chick Growth in Adélie Penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae)

When provisioning chicks, parents trade-off their time, energy, and other resources to maximize reproductive success. As parents adjust investment to maximize their fitness, impacts on offspring growth can occur. We investigated provisioning and chick growth of Adélie Penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) at one of the largest colonies (∼175,000 pairs), during one year of normal chick growth and survival and in a year which, by chance, was characterized by low chick growth and survival (“difficult” year). We measured daily average amount and quality of food delivered, as well as foraging-trip duration, and compared them to chick mass and skeletal growth during two years of contrasting conditions. We used mixed-effects models to test the prediction that increased parental investment would lead to increased growth rates, while accounting for confounding effects. There was no evidence of an effect of parent age. All provisioning measures predicted growth of at least one morphological character but, especially during the year of normal reproductive success, no provisioning measure strongly predicted growth across most morphological characters. However, during the difficult year parental investment positively affected growth rates, especially for males that were fed relatively more fish. The observed variation in growth rates between males and females, and between years of contrasting apparent resource availability, was large enough to lead to size differences that may subsequently affect post-fledging survival and ultimately population processes.

Incubation temperature and physiological aging in the zebra finch.

In birds, incubation temperature has received increased attention as an important source of phenotypic variability in offspring. A lower than optimal incubation temperature may negatively affect aspects of nestling physiology, such as body growth and energy metabolism. However, the long-term effects of sub-optimal incubation temperature on morphology and physiology are not well understood. In a previous study, we showed that zebra finches from eggs incubated at a low temperature (35.9°C) for 2/3 of the total incubation time suffered a lower post-fledging survival compared to individuals that had been incubated at higher temperatures (37.0 and 37.9°C). In the present study, we investigated whether these variations in incubation temperature could cause permanent long-lasting differences in body mass, body size, or basal metabolic rate. Furthermore, we tested whether the observed differences in survival between treatment groups would be reflected in the rate of physiological deterioration, assessed through oxidative damage and decreased metabolic rate with age (i.e. ‘metabolic aging’). Incubation temperature did not significantly affect embryonic or nestling body growth and did not influence final adult body mass or body size. Nor was there any long-term effect on basal metabolic rate. Birds from eggs incubated at the lowest temperature experienced an accumulation of oxidative damage with age, although this was not accompanied by an accelerated rate of metabolic aging. The present results suggest that the low survival in these birds was possibly mediated by increased oxidative stress, but independent of body growth and the basal metabolic rate.

Double-brooding and annual breeding success of great tits in urban and forest habitats.

Urban areas differ from natural habitats in several environmental features that influence the characteristics of animals living there. For example, birds often start breeding seasonally earlier and fledge fewer offspring per brood in cities than in natural habitats. However, longer breeding seasons in cities may increase the frequency of double-brooding in urban compared with nonurban populations, thus potentially increasing urban birds' annual reproductive output and resulting in lower habitat difference in reproductive success than estimated by studies focusing on first clutches only. In this study, we investigated 2 urban and 2 forests great tit Parus major populations from 2013 to 2019. We compared the probability of double-brooding and the total number of annually fledged chicks per female between urban and forest habitats, while controlling for the effects of potentially confounding variables. There was a trend for a higher probability of double-brooding in urban (44% of females) than in forest populations (36%), although this was not consistent between the 2 urban sites. Females produced significantly fewer fledglings annually in the cities than in the forest sites, and this difference was present both within single- and double-brooded females. Furthermore, double-brooded urban females produced a similar number of fledglings per season as single-brooded forest females. These results indicate that double-brooding increases the reproductive success of female great tits in both habitats, but urban females cannot effectively compensate in this way for their lower reproductive output per brood. However, other mechanisms like increased post-fledging survival can mitigate habitat differences in reproductive success.

Early-life patterns of growth are linked to levels of phenotypic trait covariance and postfledging mortality across avian species.

Life history studies have established that trade‐offs between growth and survival are common both within and among species. Identifying the factor(s) that mediate this trade‐off has proven difficult, however, especially at the among‐species level. In this study, we examined a series of potentially interrelated traits in a community of temperate‐zone passerine birds to help understand the putative causes and consequences of variation in early‐life growth among species. First, we examined whether nest predation risk (a proven driver of interspecific variation in growth and development rates) was correlated with species‐level patterns of incubation duration and nestling period length. We then assessed whether proxies for growth rate covaried with mean trait covariance strength (i.e., phenotypic correlations ( rp), which can be a marker of early‐life stress) among body mass, tarsus length, and wing length at fledging. Finally, we examined whether trait covariance strength at fledging was related to postfledging survival. We found that higher nest predation risk was correlated with faster skeletal growth and that our proxies for growth corresponded with increased trait covariance strength ( rp), which subsequently, correlated with higher mortality in the next life stage (postfledging period). These results provide an indication that extrinsic pressures (nest predation) impact rates of growth, and that there are costs of rapid growth across species, expressed as higher mean rp and elevated postfledging mortality. The link between higher levels of trait covariance at fledging and increased mortality is unclear, but increased trait covariance strength may reflect reduced phenotypic flexibility (i.e., phenotypic canalization), which may limit an organism's capacity for coping with environmental or ecological variability.

Parasitic cowbird development up to fledging and subsequent post-fledging survival reflect life history variation found across host species

Parasitic cowbird development up to fledging and subsequent post-fledging survival reflect life history variation found across host species

The time-activity budgets of breeding Blue Swallows Hirundo atrocaerulea and the effects of weather on nestling growth

The Blue Swallow is an intra-African migrant that breeds in its fragmented range from South Africa to southern Tanzania, from October to March annually. The birds migrate north and are on their non-breeding range in NE DRC, Uganda, NW Tanzania and W Kenya, from April to September annually. The global Blue Swallow population, estimated at <1 500 pairs, is classified as ‘Vulnerable’, because of its small and declining population. Only the female Blue Swallow incubates the eggs and broods the nestlings for the first nine days after they have hatched from the eggs. The growth rate of Blue Swallow nestlings is reduced by adverse weather conditions characterised by low temperatures (<14 °C), 3–4 consecutive days of fog and intermittent rainfall. In the Blue Swallow Natural Heritage Site (25°36′ S, 30°45′ E), food shortages, because of three or more consecutive days of adverse weather conditions resulted in Blue Swallows shifting entirely to self-maintenance by abandoning eggs and nestlings and attempting to breed again when weather conditions improved. The post-fledging survival of the nestlings affected by adverse weather conditions is reduced. The reason is that at the time of fledging the mass of these nestlings was below the mean mass of the adults and because the mass of nestlings developing under good weather conditions is equal to or greater than the mean mass of the adult birds. Circumstantial evidence suggests that Common Fiscal Lanius collaris may be the predator of Blue Swallow eggs and nestlings. Adult longevity and the breeding success of Blue Swallows may have been reduced by adverse weather affecting their entire meta-populations in the small and isolated patches of suitable habitat remaining for the birds. These characteristics of the Blue Swallow meta-populations may be contributing to their continued decline.

Breeding dispersal movements of Dupont’s Lark Chersophilus duponti in fragmented landscape

SummaryUnderstanding patterns of dispersal behaviour of threatened species is important in conservation biology and population ecology, especially in fragmented landscapes. Dupont’s Lark Chersophilusduponti is a threatened passerine whose European population has declined by around 40% in the last decade. To study natal and breeding dispersal of the species, we used a long-term mark-recapture dataset (2011–2019) and analysed the records of 32 males (39 dispersal movements) and five females (five dispersal movements) captured during the breeding season at Rincón de Ademuz (Valencia, eastern Spain). Adult birds had a median breeding dispersal of 154 m (Q25-Q75 = 70.0–300.3). Among these captures, two adult males dispersed to a new patch of habitat separated by more than 5,800 m. Only one out of 26 nestlings ringed was trapped as an adult bird, which occurred at a site different from the natal territory (4,500 m). Our results show a low breeding dispersal for the species and are, in essence, in agreement with previous studies carried out in the Ebro Valley metapopulation, one of the core areas for the species in Europe. Nonetheless, unlike in the Ebro Valley, we detected movements of adult birds between habitat patches. The low recovery rate of young birds suggests that they left their natal sites and moved outside the study area or that their survival rate was very low. Future studies focused on the post-fledging survival rate and natal dispersal movements are essential to determine effective conservation measures for the species. Habitat management actions in occupied and potential sites should be carried out close to the areas inhabited by the species to increase the success rate of the interventions and the effective dispersal and therefore population connectivity.

Why do nestling birds fledge early in the day?

In altricial birds, leaving the nest is a key life history transition associated with a high risk of mortality. Studies of numerous species have shown that young typically fledge early in the day, and it is often asserted that early fledging is important for survival; however, evidence for this hypothesis is limited. We used an automated monitoring system to obtain precise fledging times of 1582 young blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus , from 230 nests. As expected, nestlings primarily fledged early in the day (84% fledged before midday). However, we found no evidence that early fledging was associated with higher postfledging survival (i.e. recorded the following autumn or later). We propose two alternative explanations for the morning peak in fledging. Hypothesis 1 is that some offspring reach a developmental threshold for fledging overnight and leave the nest early the next day. This is supported by our observation that offspring that fledged early in the day tended to be more developed than those that fledged later in the day, that is, they were older and had a high body mass (measured at 14 days of age) for their fledging age. Hypothesis 2 is that the timing of fledging is related to parental provisioning behaviour. Our results do not support this hypothesis. Parents reduced their nest visit rate over the course of the day, but offspring did not fledge earlier when their parents decreased their visit rate more strongly with time of day. In conclusion, our results do not support the notion that the time of fledging affects survival but suggest a link with nestling development. • In altricial birds, nestlings typically fledge early in the day. • This is often assumed to improve survival, but with little supporting evidence. • We monitored the precise fledging times of 1582 blue tits from 230 nests. • Fledging time was not associated with the probability of local survival. • Instead, fledging time was related to the developmental stage of nestlings.

Predicting the effects of reservoir water level management on the reproductive output of a riparian songbird.

Dams and reservoirs alter natural water flow regimes with adverse effects on natural ecosystems. Quantifying and reducing these effects are important as global demands for energy and water, and the number of dams and reservoir, increase. However, costs and logistic constraints typically preclude experimental assessment of reservoir effects on the environment. We developed a stochastic individual-based model (IBM), parameterized using empirical data, to estimate the annual productivity of yellow warblers that breed in riparian habitat within the footprint of the Arrow Lakes Reservoir in British Columbia, Canada. The IBM incorporated information on breeding phenology, nest site selection, brood parasitism, daily nest survival, re-nesting probabilities and post-fledging survival. We used the IBM to estimate the effect of four different water management scenarios on annual productivity. We found that the IBM accurately estimated average nest success (0.39 ± 0.10 SD), the proportion of females that produced at least one fledgling during a breeding season (0.56 ± 0.11), and annual fledging success (2.06 ± 0.43) under current conditions. The IBM estimated that reservoir operations currently reduce the annual productivity of this population by 37%, from an average of 1.62 to 1.06 independent young/female. Delaying when reservoir water levels reach 435m asl (the minimum elevation occupied by yellow warblers) by approximately 2 weeks was predicted to increase annual productivity to 1.44 independent young/female. The standardized effect on annual productivity of reducing the maximum elevation of the reservoir so that yellow warbler habitat is not inundated (Cohen's d = 1.52) or delaying when water is stored (Cohen's d = 0.83) was primarily driven by inundation effects on post-fledging survival. Reservoir operation effects on breeding birds will be species specific, but this IBM can easily be modified to allow the environmental impacts on the entire breeding bird community to be incorporated into water management decisions.