BackgroundRecent studies have found that C2-FH is close to 0 cm in both standing and sitting position for asymptomatic adults. We hypothesize that the thoracic spine may compensate with PJK when the immediate post-operative C2-FH was not ideally restored in adult spinal deformity (ASD).MethodsThe inclusion criteria were as follows: ASD patients over 45 years old; Cobb angle > 30°; with posterior spinal correction surgery; at least 2 years follow-up. C2-FH was defined as the distance between the femoral heads to the C2 vertical line. All participants were divided into two groups according to the occurrence of PJK at the last follow-up: PJK group and non-PJK group.Results68 ASD patients, with a minimum follow-up of 2.5 years, were included. PJK was found in 24 patients (35.3%) while the rest 44 patients remained no sagittal malalignment. Immediately post-operative C2-FH showed significant difference between PJK group and non-PJK group (p = 0.015). However, at the last follow-up, C2-FH showed no significant difference between PJK and non-PJK group and the mean value of C2-FH in both groups was approximately − 1 cm, indicating that ASD patients could develop various compensatory mechanisms to maintain sagittal global balance. The AUC was 0.84 (95%CI 0.68–0.97), indicating the well effectiveness of ROC curve and cut-off value in predicting occurrence of PJK in ASD patients. Based on the ROC curve, the optimal cut-off value of C2-FH as indicators for occurrence of PJK was − 42.3 mm.ConclusionImmediate postoperative negative global malalignment (C2-FH < − 42.3 mm) may predict proximal junctional kyphosis in ASD patients. The normal value of C2-FH, − 1 cm, may be the target of global sagittal compensation, and PJK is a compensatory mechanism.Trial registration: 2021-LCYJ-DBZ-05, 2021.07, Retrospective study.