post-Soviet Conflicts Research Articles

The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia, Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas

ABSTRACTThe crisis in Ukraine since late 2013 has seen four successive internationally mediated agreements that have been at best partially implemented. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and 42 key informant interviews sides, we explain this outcome with reference to the logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia is currently unable to achieve a friendly and stable regime in Kyiv and thus hedges against the consolidation of an unfriendly pro-Western and stable regime by maintaining its control over parts of eastern Ukraine and solidifying the dependence of local regimes there on Russian support. This gives Russia the opportunity to maintain the current status quo or settle for re-integration terms through which Russia can sustain long-term influence over Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy. We conclude by reflecting on the consequences of competitive influence-seeking in the post-Soviet space: the likely persistence of low-intensity conflict in Ukraine; the further consolidation of territorial divisions in other post-Soviet conflicts; and the need for policy-makers in Russia and the West to prioritize the management of the consequent instability.

CULTURAL INDUSTRIES: CLONING OF IDEAS AND MEANINGS

Despite the obvious interest of the media to cultural industries, this specific segment of the intellectual market still remains outside the focus of sociological interest. For example, “products with subtext” deserve our close attention for they are responsible for the ideological consistency of the information society especially due to the fact that information technologies, having become part of the production chains of cultural industries, have significantly expanded the functions of education and leisure. The seemingly heterogeneous productions of ideas and meanings are quite similar and unified in the elaboration of the repertoire, creation of the cult of the hero of his time and the culture of consumption of information products. E. Morin mentioned that creative technologies possess the “ability to standardize great romantic themes, thus, transforming archetypes into stereotypes”. Under the widespread digitization of production, this process has gained unprecedented dynamics, scale, ideological orientation and material interest. The persisting dramas of the Cold War and the post-Soviet conflicts prove that the “smart power” of Russia’s opponents is quite effective. On the one hand, it consolidates the public opinion of other countries, and, on the other hand, deforms the political culture of the object of its influence by sophisticated manipulations of the world picture of the younger generations. Investors of cultural industries not only invest in the expansion of a profitable intellectual business but also serve the political reproduction of power, which, in turn, provides optimal conditions for the “dual-use products” entering foreign information fields and cultural spaces. Whether or not the Russian society is ready to neutralize and counter the new class of information threats - the authors consider this and some other debatable issues.

EVOLUTION OF CONFLICT STUDIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT IN POST-SOVIET RUSSIA

Article analyses formation and development of the conflict studies in Russia as a sub-discipline within political sciences, on the edge between political theory and studies of international relations and international security. Article defines stages of formation of conflict studies in Russia, analyzes social request for studies of conflicts, considers influence of foreign and international institutes and research, both form the CIS and from other foreign countries, onto the conflict studies in Russia. Author postulates turning of the "New Political Thinking"paradigm elaborated by Gorbachev that allowed reconsidering Moscow's attitude towards various conflicts and rethinking of theoretical principles of conflict analysis, that are not anymore limited to class struggle and ideological contradictions. Introduction of more pluralistic concepts of "socio-political model" and "world order" instead of Marxist category of "socio-economic formation" led to remodeling of international relations along new lines, as well as study contradictions within one social system. Splash of inter-ethnic and separatist conflicts in the first half of the 1990s led to shaping of "practically oriented conflict studies" reflecting political interests of conflict sides in conflicts in Karabakh, Georgia/Abkhazia, Georgia/South Ossetia, Moldova/Transnistria. On the eve of 1990s-2000s formation of theoretical systemic conflict studies as a discipline took place, and this discipline was already quite strongly interfaced with international and foreign conflict studies theory. Article considers role of various institutes of the Russian Academy of Science, research centers including Russian Council on International Affairs, Council on Foreign and Defense Policy? Russian Pugwash Committee, Center for Political and International studies, Moscow Carnegie Center, Russian institute for Strategic Studies, Institute for the USA and Canada Studies, etc. As a separate direction of studies article tackles studies of post-soviet conflicts by foreign institutes and centers, like UNIDIR (Geneva), SIPRI (Stockholm), EU ISS (Paris), British Royal institute of International Affairs. Interaction of Russian and Swiss scientists on the basis of Geneva-based GCSP and DCAF attracts special attention. In conclusion typical issues in focus, as well as theme fields of the Russian conflict studies as a sub-discipline within political sciences are formulated.

International linkages and the dynamics of conflict: revisiting the post-Soviet conflicts

The violent post-Soviet conflicts that erupted during and immediately after the collapse of the USSR have experienced very different conflict dynamics. Some, such as Nagorny Karabakh, Transnistria,...

Stateness, contested nationhood, and imperilled sovereignty: the effects of (non-western) linkages and leverage on conflicts in Kyrgyzstan

ABSTRACTThe case of Kyrgyzstan, mired in a durable oscillation between abrupt descents into violence and swift returns to stability, represents a useful vantage point to capture the trans-national dimension of post-Soviet conflicts. Drawing on the linkage and leverage framework, this paper investigates the role of external actors in the domestic conflicts that have occurred in the country, focusing especially on the 2010 events in and around the city of Osh. It shows that linkages with international actors have grown more dense and diverse over time, most notably with Russia and, to a lesser but growing degree, China. The paper also finds that non-western leverage has become increasingly consequential in shaping Kyrgyzstan's domestic and foreign policy. This has been both conflict-inducing and -mitigating, and has varied considerably throughout the conflict cycle. Once violence broke out no outside actor showed willingness to become embroiled in the conflict, despite the local authorities’ calls for external intervention. Conflict dynamics have altered both the domestic political landscape and trans-national linkages.

Diffusion and default: a linkage and leverage perspective on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict

ABSTRACTThis article applies the concepts of linkage and leverage to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. While other post-Soviet conflicts feature cross-border linkages reinforcing the axes of conflict, this study reveals patterns of multi-directional, fragmented and cross-cutting linkages with a wide range of external actors. This pattern has diffused leverage potentials of external actors, accounting for the lack of decisive shifts in the direction of either conflict escalation or resolution, or regime renewal. The resulting linkage/leverage structure has proven stable but hinges on a tension between diffuse international leverage and a collective default among international actors to conflict management rather than resolution.

Security relations in the Black Sea region: Russia and the West after the Ukrainian crisis

The Ukrainian conflict – as all post-Soviet conflicts – has three interrelated dimensions – global, regional and local – with deep implications for international security including the Black Sea region. The strategic interdependence between Russiaand West during the last decade became not only anaemic but antagonistic. The regional implications of that can be compared to the boomerang effect: problems at the strategic level affect the regional level and return to the originators. Generally speaking, Commonwealth of Independent States conflicts can be viewed as the product of the Soviet legacy and the patchy collapse of the USSR as well as the ill-conceived policies and mistakes of the involved parties, Russia and external actors – USA, NATO and EU.

From Global Economic Crisis to Armed Crisis: Changing Regional Inequalities in Ukraine

Despite the new geopolitical situation caused by the revolution at Maidan in February 2014, little is known about the real economics of Ukraine and its internal spatial disparities. In the survey of regional disparities, data on incomes, employment and unemployment were involved and completed by those on migration and age structure of the population. The spectrum of available data at rayon level is not particularly broad, but this is counterbalanced by the ca. five hundred territorial units that provide a minute picture of the inequalities. According to the classic view, the spatial pattern of economic development is opposite to the Central European west to east slope. In Ukraine, Eastern regions are not more developed as a whole but they accommodate more developed large urban centres. Spatial differences grew most rapidly during the period of economic decline (1990–2000). However, these disparities were mitigated during the two years following the global financial crisis as the latter mainly affected the large urban centres of the economy. Conversely, the Donets Basin as a whole was highly exposed to the effects of these crises owing to its outdated industrial structure (coal mining, iron and steel industry). This led to a rearrangement in the ranking of the east Ukrainian regions based on GDP per capita: Dnipropetrovs’k overtook Donets’k, and the Dnieper Region (including Zaporizhzhia) has a higher output per capita than Donbas. A significant part of the productive capacities and incomes are found in the Donbas, an area hit hard by the fighting; their loss would further deteriorate the state of the country’s economy. The fighting in the Donbas that did by far the greatest harm to the economy among the post-Soviet conflicts. It happened in a period when Ukraine, after the transformation crisis, had been on the path of growth for more than one decade. Concerning population number, area and economic weight, the Donbas exceeds Transnistria or Karabakh by an order of magnitude.

The road to conflict resolution: A comparative analysis of frozen conflicts in the OSCE area

In this paper the authors comparatively analyze the frozen conflicts in the OSCE area with an objective to discover specific features of the road to their solution. An accent has been put on the post-Soviet conflicts, while Kosovo and Cyprus are treated as subsidiary cases. A decisive element of the frozen conflict definition is a disharmony between the legal and factual state regarding territorial changes which took place as a consequence of an armed conflict. Thus, the international law aspect is the most important in considering possibilities for settlement of these conflicts. Other aspects which are analyzed in the paper are security, energy, economic, and democratic ones. The common conclusion of the analysis of each of these aspects is that the USA and Russia are the key actors which influence these frozen conflicts? resolution. In the absence of their consensus, these conflicts are doomed to remain frozen in the long run.

Ireland's Chairmanship of the OSCE—A Mid-Term Review

This article reviews the first two-thirds of Ireland's chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). It first examines the Cold War origins of the OSCE and its more recent evolution. The article then charts Ireland's path to becoming chairman-in-office (CiO) for the first time in 2012 and identifies the major themes, initiatives and actions of the Irish chairmanship. Reflecting the priorities of the Irish CiO, and the OSCE as a body, this article focuses on the sphere of conflict prevention and resolution. Particular attention is given to the post-Soviet protracted conflicts in the South Caucasus and between Moldova and Transnistria. In the concluding section, an overview of the present capacity and future potential of the OSCE is provided. The central argument in this section is that the OSCE remains a convenient substitute for the involvement of great powers and absolves these great powers from acting in their own name. As the OSCE is composed of civil servants, has no hierarchy, works by consensus and gives an institutionalised veto to every member, responsibility for deadlock rests with the political masters of the member states and not with the OSCE as an entity.

‘David and Goliath’ and ‘Georgians in the Kremlin’: a post-colonial perspective on conflict in post-Soviet Georgia

This article presents a post-colonial perspective on post-Soviet conflict in Georgia. Patterns of group classification and incorporation in the tsarist and Soviet eras are charted, to argue that Soviet Georgia was incorporated as a series of layered peripheries, differentiated not only by ethnic affiliation with titular groups, but also by the mode of incorporation into the wider political unit of which they formed part. This produced contrasting articulations of the link between language, identity and power among Georgians, Abkhazians and Ossetians, mediating conflicting reactions to the prospect of post-Soviet devolution. Finally, the nature of the post-Soviet sovereignty attained by Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia is considered.

The Localized Geopolitics of Displacement and Return in Eastern Prigorodnyy Rayon, North Ossetia

Three noted political geographers examine the geopolitical entanglements of the republic of North Ossetia in Russia's North Caucasus, where the country's first violent post-Soviet conflict occurred. The dynamic history of administrative border changes in the region is reviewed against the backdrop of population movements (most dramatically Stalin's 1944 deportation of the Ingush people) and shifting federal-local alliances. The primary focus is on the unresolved territorial dispute in Prigorodnyy Rayon, affected strongly by population displacement from Georgia in the early 1990s. After reviewing the causes of this dispute, which flared into open warfare in late October 1992, the paper examines two of its outcomes: the localized geopolitics of displacement and return on the ground in Prigorodnyy, and the impact of North Ossetia's geopolitical entanglements in general on ethnic attitudes. Results of a public opinion survey (N = 2000) in the North Caucasus conducted by the authors revealed high levels of ethnic pride among Ossetians and a generally positive attitude toward relations with other nationalities. Duly noted is the August 2008 confrontation involving Russia and Georgia over neighboring South Ossetia, which generated a new flow of refugees. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, I31, O18, P30. 5 figures, 1 table, 43 references.

Defining Civil War by Examining Post-Soviet Conflicts

Great many violent events happened during 1991–2005 in the 12 states that emerged after the collapse of the USSR but only a few civil wars are registered in the major datasets. That brings up a number of questions about the operational definitions of civil war that generally point in the direction of shifting the research attention from refining the quantitative parameters to grasping the essense of the phenomena in question. It is proposed that civil war partially overlaps with several other type of violent crisis: inter-state wars, civil unrest and revolutions, internal repression, military coups and mutinies, banditry and organized crime, and terrorism. These overlaps create six ‘gray zones’ where only very nuanced examination rather than application of rigid criteria could help in distinguishing civil wars from other crises. Therefore, data collection based on a single “robust” definition, which incorporates several verifiable parameters, is not necessarily the only path to scientific knowledge about civil wars.

Separatist states and post-Soviet conflicts

Even the most casual glance at a map of the world provides the onlooker with a satisfying sense of completion: the globe has been divided up into legally equal sovereign states, and all territories and peoples fall under the jurisdiction of one or another of these units. The world is a complete matrix of colours and lines that leaves nothing to chance. The blank spots have been filled in. The map of the former Soviet Union conjures a similar satisfaction. Fifteen new states emerged from the Soviet collapse. All of the territory has been divided up. Formal jurisdiction has been claimed across all of the post-Soviet space. At least, so it seems.

Explaining Post-Soviet Ethnic Conflicts: Using Regime Type to Discern the Impact and Relative Importance of Objective Antecedents

The collapse of the Soviet Union unleashed a number of violent, usually secessionist ethnic conflicts. These conflicts were typically intensified (or “escalated”) by foreign intervention. Although there is a great deal of consensus about the fundamental forces driving these conflicts and their escalation, there remain considerable theoretical differences about how to understand these factors and assess their relative importance. These differences mirror debates in the broader literature on national identity and its consequences. This article seeks to clarify these debates by elucidating some theoretical distinctions among the factors taken to contribute to the outbreak and escalation of violent ethnic conflicts. These distinctions are then applied to post-Soviet conflicts in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Tajikistan. The case studies bear out the relevance of the theoretical distinctions, but also reveal the difficulty of applying them unambiguously in any given case. These examples form the basis for some concluding suggestions. These suggestions aim to maximize the clarity with which theoretically distinct causal factors are empirically distinguished for purposes of testing hypotheses.

Policy options for resolving post-Soviet ethnic conflict

Policy options for resolving post-Soviet ethnic conflict

Managing conflict in the former Soviet Union: Russian and American perspectives

Part 1 Introduction: transition and conflict - Russian and American perspectives on the former Soviet Union, Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes a framework for assessing post-Soviet conflicts, Alexei Arbatov. Part 2 Cases of conflict: North Ossetia and Ingushetia - the first clash, Olga Osipova commentary on North Ossetia and Ingushetia, David Mendeloff the Crimean Republic - rivalries for control, Edward Ozhiganov commentary on the Crimean Republic, Michael Lysobey and Tonya Putnam the Republic of Moldova - Transdniester and the 14th Army, Edward Ozhiganov commentary on Moldova, Brian D. Taylor Latvia -discrimination, international organizations and stabilization, Alexander Yusupovsky commentary on Latvia, Brian J. Boeck Kazakhstan - how long can ethnic harmony last?, Vladimir Barsamov commentary on Kazakhstan, Henry Hale the Republic of Georgia - conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Edward Ozhiganov commentary on Georgia, Arthur G. Matirosyan. Part 3 What will the future hold?: Russian security interests and dilemmas - an agenda for the future, Alexei Arbatov horror mirror -Russian perceptions of the Yugoslav conflict, Nadia Amexandrova-Arbatova the development of US policy toward the former Soviet Union, Abram Chayes et al.