Post-recession Period Research Articles

The Commodity Effects of Decommodification: Community Land Trusts and Neighborhood Property Values

ABSTRACT This article explores the impacts of community land trust (CLT) properties on the real estate prices of nearby homes through a case study of a relatively large CLT in Minneapolis, Minnesota. We use hedonic regression and a difference-in-difference estimation with spatial error correction to measure price effects. The number of developments citywide is insufficient to yield significant results. However, we find evidence that clustering CLTs stemmed the decline in sales prices during the foreclosure crisis. The introduction of the first nearby CLT had no measurable price impact, but each additional CLT was associated with a 5% higher sales price in North Minneapolis, and 3% higher in Central Minneapolis. In the postrecession period, we estimate that the introduction of CLTs in North Minneapolis was associated with a 10.9% increase in nearby sales prices. These results suggest that, contrary to common assumptions, price effects are strongest when affordable properties are spatially clustered.

The effects of shale oil production, capital and labour on economic growth in the United States: A maximum likelihood analysis of the resource curse hypothesis

We examine the role of shale oil production in national economic growth in the United States for the period 2002Q1 to 2019Q4. Within a Cobb-Douglas production framework, we estimate the impact of increasing shale oil production on GDP and total employment. Adopting a maximum likelihood approach with a breakpoint, we observe the positive impact of shale oil production on economic growth is bigger in the post-recession period than in the pre-recession and during recession period. The results further show that shale oil production has a positive impact on the employment level but the impact of shale oil production on gross domestic product (GDP) is greater than the impact of shale oil production on employment level. The implication of the results is that shale oil development is yet to indicate tendency of resource curse in the United States.

Post-recession share repurchase behaviour by JSE-listed companies: transparent or not?

PurposeShare repurchases are increasingly employed in South Africa. Disclosure on share repurchases in annual reports is poor, and a high percentage of share repurchases are not announced in real time on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). A comprehensive database of share repurchases by JSE-listed companies has been created up to 2009, but post-recession repurchase behaviour is not known. This study aims to examine South African share repurchase behaviour (activity, repurchase entity, repurchase type and transparency) in the post-recession period and compare this to the 2000–2009 period.Design/methodology/approachComprehensive share repurchase data for all JSE-listed companies (excluding those in the basic materials and financial industries) were obtained by scrutinising annual reports and JSE announcements.FindingsThe repurchasing of shares reached a peak during the financial recession of 2008/2009, with share repurchases stabilising at a lower level post-recession. Repurchases executed by subsidiaries have decreased post-recession, probably owing to the introduction of dividends tax. However, 45% of the share repurchase value was not announced via the JSE (compared to 22% in 2000–2009).Practical implicationsReal-time JSE announcements of all share repurchases are required to improve transparency.Originality/valueOwing to low announcement rates, a lack of transparency relating to share repurchases was observed in South Africa post-recession. Enhanced corporate governance requirements could improve transparency.

Economic growth, inequality, and environment nexus: using data mining techniques to unravel archetypes of development trajectories

Implementation of sustainable development goals (SDGs) requires evidence-based analyses of the interactions between the different goals to design coherent policies. In this paper, we focus on the interactions between economic growth (SDG 8), reduced inequalities (SDG 10), and climate action (SDG 13). Some previous studies have found an inverted U-shaped relationship between income per capita and inequality, and a similar relationship between income per capita and environmental degradation. Despite their weak theoretical and empirical bases, these hypothesized relationships have gained popularity and are assumed to be universally true. Given differences in underlying contextual conditions across countries, the assumption of universal applicability of these curves for policy prescriptions can be potentially misleading. Advances in data analytics offer novel ways to probe deeper into these complex interactions. Using data from 70 countries, representing 72% of the world population and 89% of the global gross domestic product (GDP), we apply a nonparametric classification tree technique to identify clusters of countries that share similar development pathways in the pre-recession (1980–2008) and post-recession (2009–2014) period. The main outcome of interest is the change in per capita CO2 emissions (post-recession). We examine how it varies with trajectories of GDP growth, GDP growth variability, Gini index, carbon intensity, and CO2 emissions (pre-recession). Our study identifies twelve country clusters with three categories of emission trajectories: decreasing (four clusters), stabilizing (three clusters), and increasing (five clusters). Through the application of data mining tools, the study helps unravel the complexity of factors underlying development pathways and contributes toward informed policy decisions.

IMPACTS OF SARS-COV-2 ON BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS

The pandemic caused by the Sars-Cov-2 virus has impacted several sectors of the world's economy including agribusiness. In Brazil, the quarantine decreed by political leaders in order to contain the spread of Covid-19 mainly affected the productive sectors of the medium and small producer, which ended up reflecting directly on the price of food of the final consumer. Sectors such as transportation, distribution and agro-industry should also present a deficit because they are productive activities with agglomerations of people who have had their work regimes changed. However, the extensive production sector benefited from the rising dollar and increased demand for food and exports from China, and this demand may extend in the medium and long term. There is a great possibility that agribusiness will be the sector with the largest surplus in the Brazilian economy in the coming years and be responsible for balancing the trade balance in the post-recession period.

Using repeated cross-sectional data to examine the role of immigrant birth-country networks on unemployment duration: an application of Guell and Hu (2006) approach

Guell and Hu (J Econom 133:307–341, 2006) propose a robust econometric estimator using repeated cross-sectional data in the context of duration/survival analysis where otherwise limited or no results are possible because reliable panel data at an individual level are missing. We present a detailed exposition of the Guell and Hu (GH) strategy and show a Monte Carlo simulation for unemployment duration where the GH method produces better estimates compared to panel data with individual matching errors. We further apply the GH model to examine the immigrant unemployment duration in the USA using the Current Population Survey data from 2001 to 2013 and focus on the role of the birth-country networks on the unemployment duration around the Great Recession. We find that birth-country networks measured at the state level significantly lower unemployment duration for all immigrants, and this effect is stronger during the pre- and post-recession periods than during the recession. We also find that networks are more effective in lowering duration for immigrants unemployed for 1–2 months than for immigrants who are unemployed for longer periods, and this effect is the strongest during the post-recession period. The findings are robust to different specifications and measures of networks including those measured at the local MSA level.

Are oil prices efficient?

We investigate whether crude oil markets are weak-form efficient during different economic cycles over multi-scales using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Using crude oil prices from 1996 to 2018, our results for different sub-samples provide evidence that in the shorter horizon, the efficiency of prices tends to improve across each post-recession period of expansion. However, in the longer horizon, we do not observe such improvements in efficiency during recovery after recessions, especially during the global recovery after 2010. Overall, we find that the benchmark Brent crude oil prices are weak-form efficient, which implies that prices are largely unpredictable. We reevaluate our results using weekly data and rolling time windows. The findings remain robust to both tests and the use of eight oil price benchmarks.

The use of health care services in the Great Recession: evaluating inequalities in the Spanish context

ObjectiveTo analyse the effect of the Great Recession (2008) on primary care (PC) and secondary care (SC) inequalities in Spain. MethodRepeated cross-sectional study using Spanish Health Surveys from 2001 to 2017 (n=139,566). Prevalence of PC and SC utilization were calculated standardized by age. Chi square tests for trend were conducted to explore the evolution. We performed logistic regression analyses adjusted by the Andersen's model of demand for care to explore inequalities prior to, during and following the recession. All the analyses were stratified by sex. ResultsHealthcare use trends changed from a rapid increase in the pre-recession period to a plateau during the recession and a decrease in the post-recession period. Healthcare use was higher in women (PC: 15.8% to 32.5%; SC: 8.2% to 16.2%) than in men (PC: 11.3% to 24.1%; SC: 5.4% to 11.6%) and the gender gap increased. During the recession the likelihood of PC use was higher in disadvantaged groups, while SC had greater usage amongst more advantaged social groups. Inequalities in SC use increased during the recession and could not be attributed to factors of need. ConclusionsHealthcare use trends changed as a result of the recession. There are socioeconomic inequalities in the use of PC and SC in Spain, which increased in secondary care, during the recession and in the post-recession period. It is necessary to take into account socioeconomic determinants in health planning, in order to achieve equity in healthcare services.

Stock Market Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from China and India

The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of Chinese macroeconomic factors on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite returns and Indian macroeconomic factors on Nifty returns based on monthly data from January 1998 to December 2018. This study adopts quantile regression approach. The QR allows examining the conditional dependence of specific quantile of SSE and Nifty returns with respect to the conditioning factors. The authors present results for two sample periods that are pre-recession and recession period from 1998 to 2008 and the post-recession period from 2009 to 2018. This paper also documents quite interesting and useful results for the entire period. From the results, It is concluded that Chinese consumer price index significantly affects the SSE returns only for lower quantiles. However, Indian consumer price index has a significant and positive impact on the Nifty returns for the upper quantiles. Further, Chinese interest rates and Indian interest rates have no impact on the SSE and Nifty returns respectively across the different quantiles. Moreover, the Chinese exchange rate influence the SSE returns at the extreme dataset. However, the Indian exchange rate is insignificant. It is important to note that the dependence structure of China shows a negligible change during the post-recession period. Conversely, the dependence structure has changed significantly for India post-recession. The implication of this paper would guide stock market participants.

Distant But Close in Sight. Firm-Level Evidence on French-German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing

We study the productivity level distributions of manufacturing firms in France and Germany, and how these distributions evolved across the Great Recession. We show the presence of a systematic productivity advantage of German firms over French ones in the decade 2003-2013, but the gap has narrowed down after the Great Recession. Convergence is explained by the better growth performance of French firms in the post-recession period, especially of those located in the top percentiles of the productivity distribution. We also highlight the role of sectoral growth, firm size and export intensity in explaining the above convergence. In contrast, the contribution of allocative efficiency was small.

Using Linked Administrative Data to Measure Earnings Mobility of Public Assistance Recipients during the Great Recession

There is a great deal of interest and concern in the trends in income inequality in the United States and how it inequality has changed since the Great Recession. Various reasons for this divide have been offered but are notoriously difficult to evaluate due to data constraints. Public sector programs aimed at alleviating poverty are also difficult to measure because of data issues. In this paper, we estimate the impact of one of the largest federal support programs in the U.S. on income mobility of at risk populations. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) serves low income families by providing significant food benefits.
 In this paper, we create a dataset linking SNAP (food stamp) administrative records (over 1 million records per year) to Department of Labor earnings records (over 4 million records per year) at the individual level from 2001-2016. Using these uniquely matched administrative records, we can track earnings mobility over time as one measure of the effectiveness of a public assistance program at a point in time (which will inform policy decisions with respect to temporary measures, especially in recessions). We provide results for several time periods, but hone in on the pre-and post Great Recession period as a means to understand the impact of deep economic change on income mobility.
 As mobility itself is multifaceted concept, we capture a variety of measures/indices and highlight the usefulness and limitations of administrative data for the analysis. Tracking several mobility indices over time with varying time windows we can identify empirical benchmarks applied to administrative to measure the future impacts as well and to tailor government support programs.

An evident prescience of determinants of dividend policy of Indian real estate companies

PurposeThis paper aims to make an attempt to identify the determinants of dividend policy by analyzing 125 real estate companies, which are selected on the basis of consistent dividend distribution throughout the study period. Most of these companies either listed with Bombay Stock Exchange or National Stock Exchange.Design/methodology/approachThis paper applies three alternative methods to verify and validate the results obtained from each other method, namely, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square and generalized method of moments (GMM). Data collected of the selected companies’ post-recession period i.e. 2009-2017. The selected companies have age either 5 years old or more when data are retrieved from the above-mentioned sources. Due to much volatility in the recession period in the real estate firms at the global level, no data have been taken of the firms before March 2009. Moreover, for arriving at good analysis and an adequate number of observations for the study more recent data have been taken.FindingsEmpirical findings of this research paper depict that firm previous dividend, firm risk and liquidity are strong predictors of future dividend payout ratios (DPRs). The results indicate that firm risk as measured through price-earnings ratio (PE ratio) has a positive association with a DPR of selected real estate firms. Lagged DPR used in the GMM test as an exogenous variable is showing positive significant association with DPR. Firm’s growth is found significant in FMOLS and GMM techniques. On the other firm’s size is found significant according to cointegration techniques.Practical implicationsThe present study shall be useful to different stakeholders of real estate companies. Various significant determinants as identified can be used by management for designing optimum dividend policy and providing maximum benefits to existing shareholders. Similarly existing and prospective shareholders may predict the future payment of dividend and accordingly they may take investment decisions in these firms, as the future fund’s requirement of a firm depends upon dividend payment and retention ratio.Originality/valueAs per the authors’ knowledge, there is no single study carried in the post-recession period to predict determinants of dividend policy of real estate sector using three alternatives of methods to verify and validate the results obtained from each other method. The study is carried out after exploring determinant from a diverse range of period of studies (oldest one to latest one).

Trends in the association of different forms of precarious employment and self-rated health in Germany. An analysis with the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1995 and 2015

BackgroundPrecarious employment has increased in Germany by means of labour market flexibilisation throughout the 1990s and 2000s. In this study, trends in the association of self-rated health (SRH) with different...

Ideal Cardiovascular Health Among American Adults After the Economic Recession of 2008-2009: Insights from NHANES

BackgroundThe economic recession of 2008-2009 resulted in unprecedented employment and economic losses leading to deterioration of cardiovascular health. We examined the trends in ideal cardiovascular health as measured by the American Heart Association’s (AHA’s) Life’s Simple 7 metric during the periods of economic recession and subsequent economic recovery. MethodsData on adults ages ≥20 years from the NHANES from economic-recession (2007-2010) and post-recession (2011-2016) periods was analyzed. The AHA’s Life’s Simple 7 score of 10-14 was used to classify ideal cardiovascular health status. Socioeconomic status was divided into 3 categories: high, middle, and low based on education and income status. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models including demographics, insurance status, health care access, and adjustment for multiple testing were used to analyze the trends in prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health across socioeconomic strata. ResultsWe observed a decline in the multivariable-adjusted mean cardiovascular health score from 8.18 in 2007-2010 to 7.94 in 2015-2016 (Plinear = 0.02). This was primarily driven by the increasing prevalence of obesity (34% in 2007-2010 vs 41% in 2015-2016, Plinear = 0.005) and poor fasting glucose (8% in 2007-2010 vs 12% in 2015-2016, Plinear = 0.003). In multivariable-adjusted models, we observed the decreasing prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health with a nonlinear trend in the participants in the highest (51% in 2007-2010 vs 42% in 2015-2016, Pquadratic = 0.01) and lowest socioeconomic strata (16% in 2007-2010 vs 13% in 2015-2016, Pquadratic = 0.02). The prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health was higher in participants with high-socioeconomic status compared with other socioeconomic status participants. ConclusionsDespite economic recovery, ideal cardiovascular health metrics have not yet recovered. Cardiovascular health appears to be further deteriorating for US adults, particularly those in high- and lower-socioeconomic strata.

Factors influencing dividend payout decisions: Evidence from South Africa

Background: Dividend payout is one of the most debated contemporary corporate finance issues. No universal theoretical model describes the factors that corporate managers consider in dividend payout decisions. This study extends previous South African empirical research on dividend payout trends and motivations for Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)-listed industrial companies over the period 1999–2014. The study period coincides with the introduction of share repurchases as an alternative distribution method, covers multiple dividend distribution regulatory amendments and overlaps the global financial crisis of 2008. Objectives: The aim of this study was to ascertain whether the global financial crisis of 2008 affected dividend payouts and to identify factors that influenced dividend payout decisions of JSE-listed industrial companies over the period 1999–2014. Method: Descriptive statistics and a fixed-effects panel regression analysis were applied to dividend data extracted from published annual reports of JSE-listed industrial companies over the period 1999–2014. Results: Dividend distributions of JSE-listed industrial companies increased over the study period in contrast to declining global dividend distribution trends. A significant increase in dividend payout was found when comparing pre- and post-recession periods, in line with the positive impact of dividend distribution regulatory reforms. Company size (+), profitability (+), sales growth (−) and free cash flow (−) were identified as significant factors that influence dividend distributions of JSE-listed industrial companies.

Mortgage Foreclosures, Race, and Postrecession Lending

This article examines the effect of high foreclosure rates on postrecession lending. Our hypothesis is that high neighborhood foreclosure rates will have a significant and positive effect on the likelihood of mortgage loan denial. In a case study on Toledo, Ohio, we explore the role of foreclosure activity, race, and racial disparities in lending practices and how they differ across neighborhoods. Our results suggest that applicants in high-foreclosure neighborhoods have a greater likelihood of loan denial (ceteris paribus). We also find that minority applicants face a higher probability of loan denial in high-foreclosure minority neighborhoods. Overall, the results depict highly variable lending practices where race seems to make a difference albeit in a small subset of neighborhoods deeply affected by the foreclosure crisis. There is also some indication of a chilling effect on minority loan applicants in Toledo during the postrecession period. Key Words: foreclosure, logistic regression, mortgage lending, neighborhood contingency, race discrimination.

The gender difference in wages and the returns to schooling over the great recession in the U.S.

This paper examines the effects of the Great Recession on the gender difference in hourly wage and the rate of return to schooling in the United States. Using data from American Community Survey 2000–2015, we find that the male-female difference in hourly wage declined during and after the recession. The Great Recession decreased earnings for both men and women, especially for those with more education. We also find there is a significant gender difference in the effects of the Great Recession on the returns to schooling. The Great Recession increased the rate of return to schooling for both men and women, and the female-male difference in the returns to schooling decreased by 0.4 percentage points in the post-recession period. The change of the gender difference in the returns to schooling can be explained by the wage structure change for men and women over the recession.

Critical analysis of nurses' labour market effectiveness in Canada: The hidden aspects of the shortage.

This article proposes a critical analysis of the effectiveness of the nurses' labour market by addressing the classic dimensions of a labour market: supply, demand, and the impact of wages. Specifically, this work aims to (1) clarify the various concepts of labour shortage and present the evidence and (2) provide a critical analysis of the literature in terms of the efficiency of the nurses' labour market, while presenting descriptive statistics relevant on the supply and demand of nurses' labour. Such work elucidating the concepts and bringing a critical retrospective and prospective analysis on the subject at the pan-Canadian level constitutes an important contribution to the literature on the trends in the nursing labour market. The results suggest that this shortage in Canada was around 2.6% in 2012; it would continue until 2022 but would be reduced to 1.3% on average (corresponding to more than 46000 nurses). Quebec would be the province with the highest vacancy rate. Besides, the analysis suggests that the postrecession period of 2008 was managed more effectively than that in the early 1990s. Measures particularly related to the provision of health services and adequate management of the workload by the institutions are to be prioritized in order to solve the shortage problem.

Development of a risk disclosure index and its application in an Indian context

PurposeThis paper aims to gauge the quality of risk disclosure in 3,872 annual reports of Indian corporates, using a risk disclosure index (RDI) developed to capture both quality and quantity of risk disclosures.Design/methodology/approachFocussing on 69 risk items, the paper uses manual textual analysis and scores risk items using an ordinal scale, as opposed to the general practice of using a dichotomous scale.FindingsThe average risk index is low, but greater in the post-recession period than in the pre-recession period. Most disclosures are qualitative, both backward and forward-looking, and exhibit a negative tone. In addition, company age and industry sector have a significant impact on disclosure levels.Research limitations/implicationsThe choice and weighting of semantic qualities used to construct RDIs used in disclosure studies are inherently subjective. This exploratory study uses univariate analysis and does not explore the reasons for poor disclosure.Practical implicationsIn addition to its usefulness for investors and companies’ management, the findings of non-compliance with certain mandatory provisions and a low average RDI is particularly relevant for policymakers and regulatory bodies.Originality/valueDevelopment of a summary measure/RDI that is novel in its differential weighting of the semantic qualities pertaining to quantification, time-orientation and tone. Further, it serves as an exploratory study about risk disclosure practices in the Indian context that reveals notable differences from findings of previous risk disclosure research. Moreover, the study examines the relationship between firms’ age and risk disclosure levels, a largely ignored aspect in disclosure research.

The Impact of High-Performance Work Systems on Employees: A Sectoral Comparison

Using nationally representative linked employer-employee surveys of workplaces with 50 or more employees we find the adoption of High-Performance Work Systems (HPWS) in the private sector is largely positively correlated with employee job attitudes pre-recession. However, high intensity HPWS has partly adverse consequences for private sector employees in the post-recession period. In contrast, there are no indications of public sector employees responding positively or negatively to HPWS and HPWS is not associated with adverse effects post-recession. The sectoral difference in results is interpreted in terms of different employment relationships and different sources of employee motivation.