Global Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Depositional history of the subaqueous delta off the southeastern coast of Korea during the post-glacial period

The distal mud deposit (DMD) of the Korea Strait Shelf, located along the southeastern coast of Korea and detached from the main sediment source, the mouth of the Nakdong River, is considered a subaqueous delta system. The complex spatiotemporal changes in the stratigraphic architecture of the DMD were reconstructed, based on combined seismic and sediment core data, according to the three stages of post-glacial sea-level rise. During the early transgressive stage (from ca. 19 to 10.9 ka), transgression occurred at a relatively deeper northern outer shelf of the DMD, where Unit A began to be deposited in an aggradational stratal stacking pattern. During the late transgressive stage (ca. 10.9 to 8 ka), further sea-level rise provided sufficient accommodation for DMD, but an insufficient sediment supply from the Nakdong River might have prevented sedimentation. At the highstand stage (ca. 8 ka to the present), the increased supply of suspended sediments from the Nakdong River coupled with the entrance of the Tsushima Warm Current through the Korea Strait may have enabled the along-shore lobate progradation of Unit B on the flat and wide southern shelf. After appoximately 2 ka, as Unit B proceeded into the narrow, steep northern shelf, it started to prograde in a shore-normal direction, controlled by a rapid downslope decrease in near-bed shear stress. Over the last 700 years, sediments have been actively deposited at the depocenter of the DMD by frequent storm surges during the summer season. The reconstructed depositional history of the DMD demonstrates the importance of the pre-existing shelf morphology, along-shore currents, and storm surges in offshore sediment transport for a subaqueous delta in a microtidal shelf with a relatively small riverine sediment load.

A methodological framework for ranking communicable and non-communicable diseases due to climate change – A focus on Ireland

There is currently a significant global focus from the public health community on addressing climate-related public health issues. Globally we are witnessing geological shifts, extreme weather events, and the associated incidents that may have a significant human health impact. These include unseasonable weather, heavy rainfall, global sea-level rise and flooding, droughts, tornados, hurricanes, and wildfires. Climate change can have a direct and indirect health impact. The global challenge of climate change requires global preparedness for potential human health effects due to climate change, including vigilance for diseases carried by vectors, foodborne and waterborne diseases, deteriorated air quality, heat stress, mental health, and potential disasters. Therefore, it is essential to identify and prioritise the consequences of climate change to become future-ready. This proposed methodological framework aimed to develop an innovative modelling method using the ‘Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY)’, to rank potential direct and indirect human health impacts (communicable and non-communicable diseases) of climate change. This approach aims to ensure food safety, including water, in the wake of climate change. The novelty of the research will come from developing models with spatial mapping (Geographic Information System or GIS), which will also consider the influence of climatic variables, geographical differences in exposure and vulnerability and regulatory control on feed/food quality and abundance, range, growth, and survival of selected microorganisms. In addition, the outcome will identify and assess emerging modelling techniques and computational-efficient tools to overcome current limitations in climate change research on human health and food safety and to understand uncertainty propagation using the Monte Carlo simulation method for future climate change scenarios. It is envisaged that this research work will contribute significantly to developing a lasting network and critical mass on a national scale. It will also provide a template to implement from a core centre of excellence in other jurisdictions.

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

Study on Sedimentary Evolution of the Hanjiang River Delta during the Late Quaternary

In recent years, coastal areas have been threatened by many potential hazards due to global warming, glacier melting and sea level rise. Understanding their evolutionary history and development trends can help predict disasters and further reduce the corresponding losses. The Hanjiang River delta in the southeastern part of China is the second largest delta in Guangdong Province and has such challenges. Studying the sedimentary evolution and delta initiation of the Hanjiang Delta is beneficial for understanding the response of the Hanjiang Delta to present and future sea level and climate changes. In this research, we drilled a series of cores from the Hanjiang subaqueous delta, which contains information on the sedimentary environment, climate change and sea level change during the late Quaternary. Combined with previous research results and under the constraint of high-precision and high-resolution AMS14C and OSL, we carried out a multi-proxy analysis that included micropaleontology and grain size to obtain information on the sedimentary environment, sea level change and climate change. We then further discussed the initiation of the Hanjiang delta and its primary factors. The Quaternary sediments began depositing in the early Late Pleistocene (MIS5), and three sedimentary cycles can be recognized from bottom to top. The dating results also indicate that the first two cycles were formed during the late Pleistocene, while the last cycle was formed during the Holocene. The initiation of the Hanjiang Delta was indicated by a progradation in the process of a transition from estuary to a typical delta. At this time, the rate of delta progradation seaward was fast, and increasing amounts of sediments moved through the third line of islands into the sea. The barrier–lagoon system began to develop in the estuary of Hanjiang during this period. With the sequential construction of the delta, the lagoon was filled and covered by delta deposition, and the barrier bar moved to the sea; thus, the barrier-coast delta depositional model was established in the study area. Since the last glacial period (LGM), the Hanjiang River Delta and other river deltas in the region seem to have experienced similar evolutionary histories, including the filling of incised paleo-valleys and estuaries in the Early Holocene and deltaic progradation in the Middle to Late Holocene, controlled by sea level change.

Dynamic sea-level changes and potential implications for storm surges in the UK: a storylines perspective

Global sea-level rise caused by a warming climate increases flood risk from storm surge events for those who live in coastal and low-lying areas. Estimates of global thermosteric sea-level rises are well constrained by model projections, but local variability in dynamic sea-level arising from seasonal and interannual changes is less well characterised. In this paper we use satellite altimetry observations coupled with CMIP6 model projections to understand drivers of change in dynamic sea-level over the UK shelf seas. We find a northward shift in the atmospheric jet stream and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to be the key drivers of local dynamic sea-level variability. Using a storyline approach to constrain climate system responses to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, we find that dynamic sea-level is predicted to rise between 15–39 cm by 2080–2099 along the east coast of England (ECE). Under a worst-case scenario, assuming maximum variability as seen in the CMIP6 projections, ECE dynamic sea-level rise could reach 58 cm by 2100. We illustrate the impact of this dynamic sea-level rise in addition to non-dynamic components on the risks posed by storm surge events in ECE using an idealised example. If a storm surge event of the magnitude of the one experienced in ECE on the 5th of December 2013 was to occur in 2100, an additional 1414 km2 of land would potentially be affected in our worst-case idealised example, 22.4% of which can be attributed to dynamic sea-level rise.

Ocean‐Forcing and Glacier‐Specific Factors Drive Differing Glacier Response Across the 69°N Boundary, East Greenland

AbstractThe Greenland ice sheet has become a significant contributor to global sea level rise over the last 40–50 years. Approximately half of Greenland's mass loss since 1992 was due to increased ice discharge from marine‐terminating outlet glaciers. Here, we present high temporal resolution (∼monthly) time series of ice frontal positions for 24 marine‐terminating outlet glaciers along Greenland's east coast between 2013 and 2020. The glaciers are located north and south of 69°N, which has previously been identified as a potential divide in glacier response to climate forcing. Frontal positions are compared to ice velocity, atmospheric and oceanic data, allowing investigation of change at both seasonal and interannual timescales. Our results reveal 19 of 24 study glaciers underwent net retreat. We find marked differences in interannual patterns of frontal position between glaciers located north and south of 69°N. South of 69°N, glaciers underwent multiyear retreat initiated in 2016, which we attribute to over‐winter calving, resulting from warmer ocean waters and repeated ice‐mélange break‐up. North of 69°N glaciers show either limited or gradual changes in frontal positions and retreat patterns are characterized by more year‐on‐year variability between glaciers. Although similar atmospheric conditions occur across both regions, glaciers north of 69°N experience minimal change in ocean conditions, and are strongly influenced by glacier‐specific factors. Our results show that 69°N continues to represent a boundary between different glacier responses and climate forcing, which is likely to persist under current conditions.

Reef growth and carbonate sedimentation at the southernmost Pacific reefs

Lord Howe Island and Balls Pyramid are located at the latitudinal limit of coral reef formation in the Tasman Sea, with the fringing reef on the western margin of Lord Howe Island considered to be the southernmost coral reef in the Pacific. An extensive submerged fossil reef occurs on the shelf around Lord Howe Island. Mapping of the shelf surrounding Balls Pyramid, 24 km south of Lord Howe Island, has revealed a comparable submerged mesophotic reef system in 30–50 m water depth supporting scattered live coral colonies. Radiocarbon dating of coral extracted from limestone cores on the fossil reef reveals that accretion occurred during the early Holocene (10,100–8800 cal. Years BP), concurrent with the first phase of Holocene accretion around Lord Howe Island. The timing of fossil coral growth on the shelves of the two islands indicates that the reefs have been drowned by rising sea level. The fossil reef around Balls Pyramid is a give-up reef that was unable to keep pace with sea level. After its demise, carbonate sediment production continued across the shelf with sands and gravels that have accumulated in basins and channels, between the submerged fossil reef structures. Vibrocores record a fining upward sequence of sands overlying rhodoliths and angular carbonate gravels. The coral reef around Lord Howe Island persisted a little longer (∼7000 cal. Years BP) and has accreted into shallower water (∼25 m). The reef here was able to backstep to form the modern fringing reef. Although similar benthic habitats characterise both shelves, availability of suitable accommodation space on Lord Howe Island enabled deposition of sequences of eolianite during successive Late Quaternary highstands, and the development of a modern fringing reef and lagoon over eroded basalt, and late Pleistocene reef and eolianite. Antecedent topography has provided a first-order control on establishment and persistence of reef habitats during post-glacial sea-level rise, and the relative extent of past reef structures and eroded bedrock outcrops has constrained coral reef accretion at this latitudinal limit.

Sea surface height measurements using a low-cost GNSS buoy with multiple GNSS receivers

Accurate Sea surface height (SSH) measurements are important for global climate change and sea level rise monitoring. Satellite altimeters can provide global coverage observations but with coarse temporal and spatial resolution, while tide gauges offer high-precision measurements but are limited to coastal regions. The advent of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) buoys bridge the gap between the tide station and the satellite altimeter, which realize continuous and reliable absolute SSH measurements in the coastal zone. However, most of buoys are equipped with GNSS geodetic receivers and antennas, which are expensive and with high power consumption. The emergence of low-cost receivers has been applied in fields such as autonomous driving and disaster monitoring, yet low-cost receivers suffer precision limitations due to signal quality issue in the harsh marine environment. To solve the reliability issue of low-cost receivers in SSH measurements, firstly, a low-cost buoy platform with four dual-frequency receivers is designed in this contribution. GNSS antennas are installed on the four corners of a square with a side length of 1.180 m, and the total power consumption is less than 4 W. Additionally, a robust outlier detection method, the Geometric Constraint algorithm, is proposed to improve the reliability and accuracy of GNSS SSH results. The performance of our buoy was validated in Jingye Lake at Tianjin University on April 30, 2022, and another experiment was conducted in Bohai Bay, Tianjin, on August 20, 2022, to assess the performance of a self-developed MG-Buoy for SSH measurement under real oceanic conditions. The experimental results indicate that the precision of single-frequency SSH measurement is 0.91 cm using the GNSS Post Processed Kinematic (PPK) technique with a single antenna, while the dual-frequency can achieve 0.50 cm accuracy. After adopting the Geometric Constraint method, the measurement accuracy of single-frequency and dual-frequency SSH values are 0.49 cm and 0.40 cm, respectively, representing a 46.2% and 20.0% improvements compared to the root mean square (RMS) value for the single GNSS antenna.

A review on modified MOFs as CO2 adsorbents using mixed metals and functionalized linkers

The effects of greenhouse gases, like CO2, are becoming more and more visible, from drastic weather changes to global sea level rise. The resultant global warming has become an environmental issue of great concern in recent years. The potential for CO2 capture through metal-organic frameworks has been widely studied and is currently being explored as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The strong structural and electronic properties of these frameworks make them excellent candidates for capturing CO2 due to their high porosity, tunable composition and good chemical stability. Functionalized metal organic frameworks (MOFs) are important because it allows for the development of MOF materials with properties that are tunable for many different applications. Many of these functions are gas adsorption, catalysis, and separation. Depending on the composition of the linkers and nodes, various functional groups can be introduced into the network through the organic linkers and metal nodes, resulting in MOFs with different functions. Mixed-metal MOFs are composed of several different metals. The variety of metals in a mixed-metal MOF gives the MOF many options for tailoring its properties. The resulting bimetallic MOFs are not only more thermally and chemically stable, but also can absorb more gases. The other objective of this study was to observe the effect of organic functional groups on CO2 adsorption in MOFs. The study found that organic functional groups have a significant effect on CO2 adsorption in MOFs.

A framework for estuarine future sea-level scenarios: Response of the industrialised Elbe estuary to projected mean sea level rise and internal variability

In this study, we apply probabilistic estimates of mean sea level (MSL) rise and a sub-set of regional climate model ensemble simulations to force a numerical model of the southern North Sea, downscaling projected sea level variability to the Elbe estuary that serves as a prototype for an industrialised meso-tidal estuary. The specific forcing combination enables a localised projection of future estuarine hydrodynamics accounting for the spread of projected global sea level rise and the spread of the regional climate projection due to internal variability. Under the applied high-emission scenario, the Elbe estuary shows high decadal rates of mean water level (MWL) rise beyond 19 mm y-1, increase in the tidal range of up to 14 mm y-1 and increase in extreme water levels of up to 18 mm y-1. The bandwidth of the estuarine response is also high. For example, the range of average monthly extreme water levels is up to 0.57 m due to the spread of projected global sea level rise, up to 0.58 m due to internal variability whereas seasonal range attains 1.99 m locally. In the lower estuary, the spread of projected global sea level rise dominates over internal variability. Internal variability, represented by ensemble spread, notably impacts the range of estuarine water levels and tidal current asymmetry in the shallow upper estuary. This area demonstrates large seasonal fluctuations of MWLs, the M2 tidal amplitude and monthly extreme water levels. On the monthly and inter-annual time scales, the MWL and M2 amplitude reveal opposite trends, indicative of a locally non-linear response to the decadal MSL rise enforced at the open boundary. Overall, imposed by the climate projections decadal change and MSL rise enhance the horizontal currents and turbulent diffusivities whereas internal variability locally mitigates sea level rise–driven changes in the water column. This work establishes a framework for providing consistent regionalised scenario-based climate change projections for the estuarine environment to support sustainable adaptation development.

Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Early 21st Century

Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is an important contributor to global sea level rise. To examine the recent ice loss, we estimated the mass budget of the AIS from 2000 to 2020 using multiple ice velocity datasets, state-of-the-art ice thickness datasets, and extended surface mass balance (SMB) records. The AIS lost mass at an average rate of −89 ± 99 Gt/yr over the study period. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) showed a slightly positive mass balance, while the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) experienced a significant acceleration in mass loss. The ice discharge from the AIS increased from 1792 ± 47 Gt/yr in 2000 to 1940 ± 37 Gt/yr in 2017–2020, with the increase in the discharge from the WAIS being three to four times higher than that from the EAIS. Moreover, the average mass balance for 2017–2020 was −99 ± 93 Gt/yr, slightly more negative than the average for the early 21st Century. During this recent period, the ice discharge decreased in the East Indian Ocean sector, in contrast to its rapid increase from 2000 to 2013–2017. However, the discharge in the Amundsen Sea sector still greatly increased from 2013–2017 to 2017–2020. Overall, our results are in agreement with recent mass balance estimates for the AIS based on gravimetry and altimetry. Our assessments of the recent AIS mass balance with the mass budget method (input-output method) will contribute to the understanding of ice dynamic processes and provide insights into the stability of the AIS.

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation altered by global mean sea-level rise

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation altered by global mean sea-level rise

Increasing rate of 21st century volume loss of the Patagonian Icefields measured from proglacial river discharge

AbstractThe Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields are rapidly losing volume, with current volume loss rates greater than 20 km3 a−1. However, details of the spatial and temporal distribution of their volume loss remain uncertain. We evaluate the rate of 21st-century glacier volume loss using the hydrological balance of four glacierised Patagonian river basins. We isolate the streamflow contribution from changes in ice volume and evaluate whether the rate of volume loss has decreased, increased, or remained constant. Out of 11 glacierised sub-basins, seven exhibit significant increases in the rate of ice volume loss, with a 2006–2019 time integrated anomaly in the rate of glacier volume loss of 135 ± 50 km3. This anomaly in the rate of glacier-volume-loss is spatially heterogeneous, varying from a 7.06 ± 1.69 m a−1 increase in ice loss to a 3.18 ± 1.48 m a−1 decrease in ice loss. Greatest increases in the rate of ice loss are found in the early spring and late summer, suggesting a prolonging of the melt season. Our results highlight increasing, and in some cases accelerating, rates of volume loss of Patagonia's lake-terminating glaciers, with a 2006–2019 anomaly in the rate of glacier volume loss contributing an additional 0.027 ± 0.01 mm a−1 of global mean sea-level rise.

Intra-seasonal variability in supraglacial stream sediment on the Greenland Ice Sheet

On the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the presence of low-albedo features greatly contributes to ablation zone meltwater production. Some of the lowest albedo features on the Ice Sheet are water-filled supraglacial stream channels, especially those with abundant deposits of consolidated cryoconite sediment. Because these sediments enhance melting by disproportionately lowering albedo, studying their spatial extent can provide a better understanding of Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise. However, little is known about the spatial distribution of supraglacial stream sediment, or how it changes in response to seasonal flow regimes. Here, we surveyed a supraglacial stream network in Southwest Greenland, collecting imagery from seven uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) flights over the course of 24 days in 2019. Using Structure-from-Motion-generated orthomosaic imagery and digital elevation models (DEMs), we manually digitized the banks of the supraglacial stream channels, classified the areal coverage of sediment deposits, and modeled how the terrain influences the amount of incoming solar radiation at the Ice Sheet surface. We used imagery classified by surface types andin-situspectrometer measurements to determine how changes in sediment cover altered albedo. We found that, within our study area, only 15% of cryoconite sediment was consolidated in cryoconite holes; the remaining 85% was located within supraglacial streams mostly concentrated on daily inundated riverbanks (hereafter termed floodplains). Sediment cover and stream width are highly correlated, suggesting that sediment influx into supraglacial drainage systems widens stream channels or darkens previously widened channels. This reduces albedo in floodplains that already receive greater solar radiation due to their flatness. Additionally, the areal extent of stream sediments increased in August following seasonal peak flow, suggesting that as stream power decreases, more sediment accumulates in supraglacial channels. This negative feedback loop for melting may delay Greenland’s runoff to the latter end of the melt season. This study shows in unprecedented detail where and when sediment is deposited and how these deposits potentially impact the Ice Sheet surface energy balance. These findings may allow for better prediction of how supraglacial floodplains, and the microbiomes they contain, might change in response to increased melting.

Mapping Environmental Impacts on Coastal Tourist Areas of Oceanic Islands (Gran Canaria, Canary Islands): A Current and Future Scenarios Assessment

The combination of the current sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in the frequency and severity of sea storm events and surges, will have important environmental impacts on coastal tourist areas located in oceanic islands that are often heavily dependent economically on tourism. Importantly, coastal tourist resorts and their associated beaches are commonly located in the S-SW of these islands where they are protected from the effects of the NE trade winds but exposed to these storms. This study analyses the current and future conditions of SW sea storm events. Then, through mapping using orthophotos, LiDAR data, and bathymetry with high spatial resolution, it studies the environmental effects that these events are having now and will have in the future on tourist zones of oceanic islands. This is of particular importance, as in the case of the Macaronesia islands, SW sea storm events are occurring with ever greater frequency. The case study considers the SW sector of the island of Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain). Regarding the analysis of SW storms, the results obtained show an increase in the frequency of events, especially since the 1990s, with 104 events detected (67.5% between 1958 and 2018). The most affected areas during these storms are usually beaches (severe erosive processes). Breakwaters and seafronts usually resist the impact of waves well, however, as is discussed that in the future scenario, their implementation will mean a high economic cost for local administrations.

A 10,000-Year-Old White Pine Forest Emerges at Stonewall Beach, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, U.S.A.

Coastal erosion at Stonewall Beach on the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, U.S.A., has exposed a thick layer of peaty sediments rich in botanical remains, including well-preserved tree trunks. We identified the species of the tree trunks based on wood anatomy, analyzed pollen and macrofossils in the sediments, and determined the ages of the tree trunks and peat with 14C dating. The tree trunks were identified as Pinus strobus (white pine), and pollen assemblages featured high percentages of P. strobus in sediments associated with the trunks. The tree trunks and peat dated to ∼10,700–9800 calibrated 14C years before present. These findings confirm that Martha's Vineyard, like other parts of southern New England, was dominated by P. strobus forest during the early Holocene. At that time, regional climate was drier than today and Martha's Vineyard was not yet isolated from the mainland by postglacial sea-level rise.

Organisation of Fish Assemblage in the Mekong Delta as a Potential Indicator of Salt Water Intrusion

The problem of salt water intrusion into the Mekong Delta is a research topic involving various branches of science. Among the causes of this phenomenon are global sea level rise and regulation of the natural river discharge due to hydropower dam construction. The scale of the delta and its water dynamics complicate instrument-based observations. Meanwhile, communities of living organisms can serve as indicators of environmental heterogeneity. This study aimed to analyze the spatial variability of fish assemblage organisation in the Mekong Delta for use as an indicator of salt water intrusion. The composition of fish assemblages in different parts of the delta were determined by midwater trawl catches during January and April 2021. A total of ~15 thousand individual fish from 74 trawl hauls were captured and analyzed. The null hypothesis was that the fish assemblages in the Mekong Delta are represented by three taxonomic complexes that are localized in the upper course (freshwater), the lower course (brackish) and the middle course (zone of the contact of the fresh and brackish waters) of the delta. The taxonomic composition of the freshwater complex is the most poor and is represented by 9 families. Meanwhile, marginal (the contact zone) and brackish complexes include 26 and 23 families, respectively. Specimens of families Cobitidae, Eleotridae, Plotosidae and Siluridae that are only found in the zone of contact of fresh and brackish waters could be considered as indicator species of its position. The actual boundaries of the brackish and freshwater complexes were determined and the distance from them to the marine delta edge equals 34 and 78 km, respectively. Assessment of the salinity values that correspond to the complex boundaries is a task for future investigation. The position of the boundaries of freshwater and brackish fish taxonomic complexes has a biological basis and could be used as an indicator of salt water intrusion into the Mekong Delta.

Land loss in the Mississippi River Delta: Role of subsidence, global sea-level rise, and coupled atmospheric and oceanographic processes

Land loss in the Mississippi River Delta: Role of subsidence, global sea-level rise, and coupled atmospheric and oceanographic processes

Interacting Effects of Watershed and Coastal Processes on the Evolution of Compound Flooding During Hurricane Irene

AbstractIn low‐lying estuarine regions, compound flooding (CF) is caused by the co‐occurrence of extreme precipitation, river flooding and storm surge. In recent decades, there has been a rise in the frequency and intensity of pluvial‐coastal CF events in different parts of the U.S. due to the increased frequency of intense precipitation and storm surge events. However, in estuarine and deltaic regions, the CF characteristics depend mainly on the storm tide and river flow interaction. Understanding how the fluvial‐coastal CF may respond to changes to watershed and estuarine characteristics is essential for future CF hazard prediction. This study examined two critical processes: (a) the interplay between antecedent soil moisture conditions and peak river flow, and (b) how the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and river flood distribution alters the CF in complex estuaries. As the study area, we selected the Delaware Bay and River, a shallow and convergent estuary in the US Mid‐Atlantic region—where flood hazards during a CF can become more significant than the surge and river flood processes occurring in isolation. For the focal event for the study, we selected Hurricane Irene (2011) because it reportedly produced the most extreme CF over the past two decades in the same region. Ultimately, our results illustrated that the potential changes to the catchment and bay characteristics from the global temperature increase and SLR could significantly modulate the fluvial‐coastal CF variability. The potential increase in global temperature and rainfall intensity might not always exacerbate the CF.

Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Hazard Analysis Based on the Current Generation of Data and Protocols

Sea level rise, as a result of climate change, is expected to drive coastal hazards that could bring significant damages to coastal regions in the future. However, high uncertainties remain in the projections of sea level rise from different climate scenarios and sea level rise prediction models. Quantification and integration of these uncertainties are essential to better inform coastal planning and decision making for climate adaptation, critical for infrastructure sustainability and resilience. This paper advances knowledge cross-cutting structural engineering and climate change in the face of multihazards via a novel framework termed the Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Hazard Analysis (PSLRHA). This study uses the current generation of models and protocols from the climate science research community to better portray the future climate and project sea level rise. The aggregation process produces the probability of exceeding a specific sea level rise threshold at a certain location and facilitates the creation of the global sea level rise hazard map. The relative importance of each climate scenario and sea level rise contributing models are demonstrated via the deaggregation process. We identify the models that have most contribution to extreme sea level rise thresholds, with large fluctuations in the high thresholds among ice sheet models. Finally, we show the practical implementation of PSLRHA results via compound flooding analyses using Houston as an illustrative example.