Post-election Survey Research Articles

The Economicization of the Cross-Strait Relationship: The Impact of the Cross-Strait Economic Relationship on the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan

In comparing Taiwan’s presidential elections in 2012 and 2016, looking into the influence of the cross-Strait relationship is an important research topic. Analyses of the 2012 presidential election focusing on the cross-Strait relationship therefore serve as a useful reference for such a comparison. All comments on and analyses of the outcome of Taiwan’s 2012 presidential election point to the impact of the cross-Strait economic relationship. By drawing on economic statecraft theories, this paper explores the issue through analyzing post-election survey data. Our study shows that the concern with the impact of the negative development of the cross-Strait economic relationship on Taiwan’s economy had Ma Ying-jeou lost the election significantly influenced the decisions of those voters who were dissatisfied with President Ma’s performance during his first term and yet still voted for him in the election mainly because of Ma’s position on the cross-Strait relationship. They accounted for 5.75% of the total number of voters. Given that the winning margin in the 2012 presidential election was 5.97%, the decision made by the aforementioned voters could have changed the election result. It also shows that 73.7% of the cross-Strait relationship voters were cross-Strait economic voters. Our findings demonstrate that, although the cross-Strait relationship per se may not be the most crucial factor that determines the voting choice of the Taiwan people, it however proves the influence of the cross-Strait economic relationship over the election, hence the economicization of the cross-Strait relationship. By economicization, it is meant that the cross-Strait economic relationship appears to be a dominant issue in the cross-Strait relationship.

Internet use and political participation: Engaging citizenship norms through online activities

ABSTRACTResearch on the relationship between Internet use and political participation has identified numerous effects that result from various online activities, though the mechanisms of influence often remain unclear. In response, we develop a theory of Internet effects and citizenship norms, wherein specific uses of the Internet influence political participation by fostering dutiful or actualizing norms of citizenship. Using a longitudinal research design comprised of five nationally representative, postelection surveys (2002–2010), we find that people who engage in dutiful uses are more likely to participate in the dutiful act of voting than those who engage in actualizing uses; these findings are most prevalent among those aged 18–30. These results suggest that online activities, which reflect specific norms of citizenship, often predict corresponding forms of political participation.

What's past is prologue, or is it? Generational effects on voter turnout in post-communist countries, 1990–2013

A common theme in studies of voter turnout in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is that the legacy of communism attenuates electoral participation. It is argued that socialization and the political habits that emerged under communism impeded democratic development by not motivating citizen activism. This paper examines this claim for voter turnout in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland for all general elections since 1990 using cohort analysis on pooled crosssectional post-election surveys from given countries. This paper shows that socialization and political habit formation under communism have had no discernible effect on voter turnout in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary between 1990 and 2013. Generational effects are evident in Poland suggesting that this country's political history is qualitatively different from that of its neighbours. This research is important in highlighting that citizens' political development within non-liberal democratic regimes does not always lead to lower levels of voter turnout. Consequently, the decline in turnout in CEE is likely to have attitudinal rather than generational origins where contemporary rather than historical political developments are most important.

Strange bedfellows: Coalition makeup and perceptions of democratic performance among electoral winners

We argue that the partisan makeup of governing coalitions affects perceptions of democratic performance among those who voted for a government party. We introduce ambivalence toward the governing parties as the mechanism that drives this relationship, and we argue that such ambivalence, which occurs when favorability ratings of the parties vary, will be more common where the parties are more ideologically diverse. After advancing our theory, we test our expectations with post-election survey data from several countries. Evidence demonstrates that coalition ambivalence is greater where governing parties are ideologically divergent, and, even when controlling for this ideological divergence, ambivalence leads to more negative perceptions of democratic performance, bringing the attitudes of electoral winners closer to those of individuals who did not vote for a party in government.

Turnout Bias in Postelection Surveys: Political Involvement, Survey Participation, and Vote Overreporting

Turnout bias is a classic flaw of postelection surveys. It has a double cause: overrepresentation of actual voters among survey respondents and vote overreporting by actual nonvoters. Previous studies have focused on the latter, measurement bias, and have failed to address the former, nonresponse bias. However, turnout is typically a topic where there may be a link between response propensity and measurement error, as factors related to political involvement are likely to influence both survey participation and misreport. To take this link into account, we resort to a Heckman selection model in which the outcome equation estimates the probability of overreporting conditional on the probability of participation in the survey. We apply such a model to a unique data set of validated votes from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, informing about the actual turnout of both individuals who were interviewed and individuals who were sampled but could not be interviewed. Based on the same data, we put forward a solution that may correct for the nonresponse bias in cases where information regarding nonresponse is not available. Applying this correction to U.S. data shows that not correcting for response propensity may indeed lead to inaccurate estimates of the determinants of overreporting and, ultimately, of turnout.

Measuring Voter Registration and Turnout in Surveys

Abstract In many post-election surveys, the proportion of respondents who claim to have voted is greater than government-reported turnout rates. These differences have often been attributed to respondent lying (e.g., Burden 2000). In a search for greater accuracy, scholars have replaced respondent self-reports of turnout with government records of their turnout (a.k.a. turnout validation). Some scholars have interpreted “validated” turnout estimates as more accurate than respondent self-reports because “validated” rates tend to be lower than aggregate self-reported rates and tend to be closer to government-reported rates. We explore the viability of turnout validation efforts. We find that several apparently viable methods of matching survey respondents to government records severely underestimate the proportion of Americans who were registered to vote. Matching errors that severely underestimate registration rates also drive down “validated” turnout estimates. As a result, when “validated” turnout estimates appear to be more accurate than self-reports because they produce lower turnout estimates, the apparent accuracy is likely an illusion. Also, among respondents whose self-reports can be validated against government records, the accuracy of self-reports is extremely high. This would not occur if lying was the primary explanation for differences between reported and official turnout rates. These findings challenge the notion that the practice of “turnout validation” offers a means of measuring turnout that is more accurate than survey respondents’ self-reports.

Too Much an Out-Group? How Nonverbal Cues About Gender and Ethnicity Affect Candidate Support

AbstractPrevious work on nonverbal cues has demonstrated the influence of candidates’ facial displays on voter preferences. However, the idea that visual cues affect political judgment by signaling the relative social solidarity (in-group vs. out-group status) between candidates and voters has received little attention. We fill this gap by experimentally manipulating facial cues associated with the physical features of gender and ethnicity (Afrocentric vs. Eurocentric-looking) and assessing their effects on candidate support in the context of the Italian 2013 general election. The experimental design is based on a CAWI post-election online survey conducted on a representative sample of Italian voters. We find that group differences between candidates and voters matter, but only among right of center voters, who respond more negatively to party candidates expressing “combined” (party x gender x ethnicity) dissimilarity. Gender- and ethnicity-based differences are, on the contrary, “assimilated” and accepted when the target candidate is from the voter's party.

Lost on the Way: Nonresponse and its Influence on Turnout Bias in Postelection Surveys

Earlier studies on turnout bias in postelection surveys have focused on vote overreporting (measurement bias) and have disregarded nonresponse bias associated with voter overrepresentation. Based on a unique data set of validated votes collected for two different ballots, we offer an in-depth analysis of the size and sources of nonresponse bias. On the aggregate level, we find that voter overrepresentation accounts for a larger share of total turnout bias than misreporting. On the individual level, past voting record, ballot vote, and age appear as strong predictors of survey participation. Breaking down further the analysis, we show that these factors contribute to nonresponse bias through both contact and cooperation. By contrast, the effects of some other factors work at cross-purpose in the contact and cooperation stages.

Vote Compass in the 2014 New Zealand election

Vote Compass – an online voter education tool originating in Canada – was used for the first time in New Zealand during the 2014 general election. During its inaugural run, over 330,000 New Zealanders visited the Vote Compass website to answer 30 policy- or issue-based questions. In return, respondents received a report on how close their views were to 10 political parties seeking office. Due to the large sample size, these data provided Television New Zealand with unique insights into voters’ views that could also be related to party policies and campaign events by academic commentators. After explaining the nature of the tool and describing the composition of the New Zealand-based team, this article examines the implications that Vote Compass has for party responsiveness and political marketing. In particular, we note the importance of Vote Compass not just for market-oriented policy, but for the overall leadership brand, including its ability to deliver on promised goods. The article also reflects on the contribution that the tool makes to voter engagement and democracy in general. Lastly, it provides a summary of the overall Vote Compass data from the main survey items and marketing-related post-election survey data in an appendix for academics to use in their own research and teaching in future.

The closing of the radical right gender gap in France?

One of the earliest and best-established finding about electoral support for populist radical right-wing parties is that they attract more men than women. Yet this finding might no longer apply to France. In the 2012, presidential election, contrary to her father, Marine Le Pen, the new leader of the Front National (FN), realized almost the same score among female and male voters. After controlling for other sociodemographic and attitudinal variables that explain electoral support for the FN, there is no difference between male and female voters’ support for the party. This article examines the closing of this gender gap in radical right-wing voting, drawing on post-electoral surveys conducted in 2002, 2012 and 2014. After a brief outline of the literature dealing with the emergence of the ‘Radical Right Gender Gap (RRGG)’, it ascertains the disappearance of a RRGG gender in 2012, tests possible explanations for this phenomenon and debates whether this is a temporary or a lasting one.

Good girls don't comment on politics? Gendered character of online political participation in the Czech Republic

ABSTRACTThe article aims to contribute to the still relatively unexplored area of the relationship between gender and online political participation. Using two complementary methods – a representative, post-election survey of the adult Czech population and a content analysis of communication on the selected Czech political parties’ Facebook profiles during the campaign for the 2013 Parliamentary Elections – we attempt to challenge some established assumptions regarding the allegedly equalizing effect of the Internet and social media on participatory behaviour of men and women. While survey data discovered subtle yet statistically significant differences between men and women in some online expressive activities on Facebook, mainly commenting on other users’ statuses, content analysis further revealed that there are not only notable gender gaps among the Facebook users who commented on the campaign, but also differences in the tone of communication produced by the respective gender groups, with men posting more negative comments addressed to parties as well as to other Facebook users. We suggest that these results question the prevailing perception about the narrowing of the ‘gender gap’ in the online environment and call for a more nuanced methodological approach to different forms of online political expression.

Lukashenka and His Voters

Various explanations have been offered for the commanding electoral support that has been enjoyed by the Belarusian president Alyaksandr Lukashenka since his original election in 1994. On the evidence of the authors’ surveys, in particular post-election opinion surveys conducted in 2006 and 2011, there is an association between social structural variables and electoral support, and between perceptions of government economic performance and electoral support, but both largely disappear when appropriate controls are introduced. It is personal approval of Lukashenka on the part of voters, over and above these other circumstances, that makes by far the largest contribution.

Does personalization increase turnout? Spitzenkandidaten in the 2014 European Parliament elections

The 2014 European Parliament elections were the first elections where the major political groups each nominated a lead candidate ( Spitzenkandidat) for the Commission presidency in the hope that this would increase the visibility of the elections and mobilize more citizens to turn out. Using data from the 2014 European Elections Study, an EU-wide post-election survey, we analyse whether and how the presence of the lead candidates influenced the individual probability to participate in these elections. Our findings show that the recognition of the candidates increased the propensity to turn out, even when controlling for a host of other individual-level factors explaining turnout and the context factors known to facilitate participation. Furthermore, the campaign efforts of the lead candidates are associated with higher turnout levels and are reinforced by candidate recognition.

The Impact of Online versus Offline Campaign Information on Citizens’ Knowledge, Attitudes and Political Behaviour: Comparing the German Federal Elections of 2005 and 2009

Against the background of the debate about how the internet changes democratic processes, this article assesses the impact of online versus offline campaign information on citizens’ knowledge, attitudes and political behaviour using data from two pre-/post-election surveys conducted at the German federal elections in 2005 and 2009. Our results show that sophisticated and less sophisticated citizens alike gain knowledge when using online information. Moreover, we find that people exposed to online information develop less ambivalent attitudes towards candidates and parties but do not take on more extreme issue positions. Online information is ineffective in stimulating turnout but compared to traditional news media, the internet gives smaller parties the chance to gain votes. We conclude that overall online information can enhance election campaigns. However, the amount of change should not be overstated as the effects are similar to those of offline political information and depend on the campaign context.

Is It Gender, Religiosity or Both? A Role Congruity Theory of Candidate Electability in Transitional Tunisia

Do voters regard male and female candidates equally? Does apparent religiosity of candidates help or hurt their electoral chances? Where biases exist, what explains them? We present a novel explanation of political bias, drawing from role congruity theory. It posits that political contexts shape citizens' perceptions of qualities that make a “capable leader,” which subsequently drives their willingness to vote for candidates. Evidence from a survey experiment embedded in the 2012 Tunisian Post-Election Survey demonstrates that this theory explains biases based on gender and religiosity better than dominant modernization and social identity theories. Moreover, these mechanisms are also likely to drive political biases related to other features and in other countries. This has important implications for policymakers aiming to reduce political biases in Tunisia, the MENA, or globally. It should encourage them to pay careful attention to stereotyped traits of underrepresented groups and successful leaders, and to use institutional solutions (e.g., electoral quotas) to shape expectations about underrepresented groups and leadership.

Voting for Democracy: Campaign Effects in Chile's Democratic Transition

AbstractIn a global context in which authoritarian regimes often hold elections, defeating dictators at the polls can play a key role in transitions to democracy. When the opposition is allowed to campaign for votes in such elections, there are strong reasons to believe that its efforts will be more persuasive than those of the authoritarian incumbent. This article examines the effect of televised campaign advertising on vote choice in the 1988 plebiscite that inaugurated Chile's transition to democracy. Using matching to analyze postelectoral survey data, it shows that the advertising of the opposition's no campaign made Chileans more likely to vote against dictator Augusto Pinochet, whereas the advertising of the government's yes campaign had no discernible effect. These findings suggest that the no campaign played an important causal role in the change of political regime.

Memory and Voter Mobilization

Using a combination of randomized experiments and survey data, this article presents evidence relevant to two debates in political science. The first is between those scholars who favor an online processing model of how American citizens process political information before elections, and those scholars who favor a memory-based model of opinion formation. The second debate is between students of voting behavior who favor the use of randomized experiments and those who favor public opinion surveys. The article examines the results of get-out-the-vote campaigns by three community organizations during California’s 2008 general election. Shortly after the election, individuals were surveyed about whether they had been contacted. Eligible voters who did not recall having been contacted but who, in fact, had been contacted were more likely to vote than were the respondents in the control group. This finding is consistent with the online processing model. Moreover, the individuals who completed the post-election survey were more likely to vote than was typical of the larger pool of participants in the field experiments. The unrepresentativeness of the survey respondents leads to inflated assessments of the effectiveness of the get-out-the-vote campaigns, and highlights the challenge of constructing representative samples for election surveys.

Who Asks For Voter Identification? Explaining Poll-Worker Discretion

As street-level bureaucrats, poll workers bear the primary responsibility for implementing voter identification requirements. Voter identification requirements are not implemented equally across groups of voters, and poll workers exercise substantial discretion in how they apply election law. In states with minimal and varying identification requirements, poll workers appear to treat especially minority voters differently, requesting more stringent voter identification. We explain why poll workers are different from other street-level bureaucrats and how traditional mechanisms of control have little impact on limiting poll-worker discretion. We test why many poll workers appear not to follow the law using a post-election survey of New Mexico poll workers. We find little evidence that race, training, or partisanship matters. Instead, poll worker attitudes toward photo-identification policies and their educational attainment influences implementation of voter-identification laws.

Debunking the myth of a “Traditional” gender gap in the electoral support for Silvio Berlusconi in Italy (1994–2013)

Despite increasing gender realignment in voting behavior of most Western democracies, women are usually believed to have disproportionally supported Silvio Berlusconi's right-wing party in Italy. Using a pooled dataset based on six post-election surveys (one for each general election between 1994 and 2013), we find only spurious evidence for such a traditional gender gap in voting. Going beyond a mere “gender gap” approach, we then look for possible intra-gender differentiation. We find that housewives tend to present those attitudes – voting for the center-right, more leader-oriented –, which were traditionally imputed to “women”. Showing the importance of this “intra-gender occupational gap”, we conclude that heterogeneity among women should be taken more seriously by research that combines gender and electoral studies.

Exposición selectiva y partidismo de las audiencias en España. El consumo de información política durante las campañas electorales de 2008 y 2011

According to Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet (1948), the effect of the media is limited by selection, attention and retention processes and individuals seek to reinforce their previous predispositions when selecting media outlets. We now see a resurgence of proposals that affirm, once again, the minimal effect of the media and survival of the theory of selective exposure, obviously adapted to the new circumstances of media consumption. The study examines whether or not the Spanish selectively expose themselves to political information during election campaign periods, and if doing so corresponds to partisan behavior by the audience. Post-election surveys conducted by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas (Sociological Research Center) in 2008 and 2011 were used. The press is the political and electoral medium most affected by selective exposure based on political orientation.