Post-election Survey Research Articles

Redes Sociais e Aplicativos de Troca de Mensagens Instantâneas na Eleição de Jair Bolsonaro como Presidente do Brasil em 2018

ABSTRACT Studies that have used survey data to analyze the reasons behind the Jair Bolsonaro’s presidential victory in 2018 have highlighted factors such as conservative ideology, antipetismo (resentment against the Brazilian Workers’ Party) and populism. In all of them, media variables are treated superficially, as if their role in politics and elections was simply to “deliver a message” to voters. We contest this view that the media played a secondary role in voters’ decisions, emphasizing instead the effects of social networks and mobile instant messaging services. Based on data from the Brazilian Electoral Study, a post-electoral survey, we show that the use of Facebook, WhatsApp and YouTube as sources of political information almost doubled the odds of one voting for Bolsonaro. This places them at a level of importance similar to that of other variables, such as anti-pluralist discourse, religious values and right-wing ideology.

A Student-Designed Multimodal Sex- and Gender-Based Women's Health Elective Program: Advocacy Curriculum for Medical Students.

The objective of this article is to describe the design and implementation of a multimodal, student-driven, sex- and gender-based women's health (SGBWH) elective with a curricular focus on patient and legislative advocacy. In this single arm, pre/post design, interventional study, we detail and evaluate the use of social media, newsletters, and round-table discussions in conjunction with a traditional lecture-based educational format to engage medical students in a virtual learning environment. We developed a 22-week SGBWH curriculum for pre-clinical and clinical medical students, which included a series of lectures on multi-specialty and gender-inclusive topics related to SGBWH, small group discussions with community leaders and legislators involved in women's health advocacy, and other self-directed resources such as social media, a website, and digital newsletters. Students were surveyed before and after completing the curriculum to assess for increases in self-reported confidence in advocating for their female and gender minority patients. One hundred and one students completed the anonymous pre- and post-elective surveys. There was statistically significant improvement in 8 of the 12 self-reported confidence measures. Eight (8%) participants identified their sex as male. Fifty-five (55%) participants stated future interest in primary care specialties (Internal Medicine, Family Medicine, Obstetrics and Gynecology, and Pediatrics). Our curriculum improved medical students' self-reported confidence in advocating for their female and gender minority patients when controlling for sex and specialty interest of participants. The success of our multimodal approach demonstrates the value in incorporating resources such as social media as tools for education and advocacy in the evolving landscape of medical education.

Partisanship, Ideology, and Selective Exposure: A Longitudinal Analysis of Media Consumption in Spain (2008–2019)

The literature on selective exposure has shown that ideology and voting govern media consumption decisions, but longitudinal studies are still scarce. To fill this gap, this work analyzes: (a) whether selective exposure guided by ideology and partisanship to three media types (television, radio, and newspapers) is a stable phenomenon in Spain (2008–2019) as expected from a polarized pluralistic media system; and (b) which variable has the strongest effects on news choices (ideology or partisanship). Multinomial logistic regressions are carried out using data sources from six post-electoral surveys conducted by the Center for Sociological Research in the last six Spanish general elections (2008–2019). As dependent variables, we consider the four most important preferred media outlets for each media type, and as independent variables, we include the vote in general election and ideology. Moreover, interest in politics, gender, age, education, and social class are included as control variables, too. Findings show strong evidence that selective exposure based on ideology and partisanship is a well-established phenomenon in Spain for the three media types during the 11 years. Results also show that the effect of partisanship is always stronger than that of ideology for the three news media types. We conclude that selective exposure in Spain needs therefore to be conceived as partisan selective exposure.

The Asian American Vote in 2020: Indicators of Turnout and Vote Choice.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09844-9.

Political Identity and News Media Choice: The Polarizing Logic of Selective Exposure During the Catalan Independence Conflict

ABSTRACT Political communication scholars have explored selective exposure by focusing on the left-right cleavage, overlooking how other sources of political identity might guide news consumption, partly because of the U.S. dominance of the discipline. We address this gap by exploring how political attitudes on the national divide influence news choices for three news media types (television, radio, and newspapers) in Catalonia over a seven-year period (2010–2017) that covers the development of the Catalan independence conflict, including four regional elections, a controversial independence referendum, and the suppression of autonomy. Binomial logistic regressions applied to four post-electoral surveys indicate that support for independence and national identity are significant predictors of Catalans’ news media choices, and that support for independence becomes increasingly relevant as a driver of news choices for broadcast media as political polarization on Catalan independence grows. We discuss the implications for democracy of such audience segregation, and underscore how political context influences media choices.

Clarifying the “People Like Me”: Racial Efficacy and Political Behavior

Political efficacy, or a sense of confidence that “people like me” can understand politics and receive responsiveness from government, is central to the study of political behavior. However, the reference group that respondents view as “people like me” is not always immediately clear. This limits our ability to infer how efficacy informs political participation. We propose a specific concept and operationalization of racial group efficacy, and we distinguish this concept from racial identity, group consciousness, and conventional efficacy measures. Analyses of data from the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey reveal that for white, Black, Asian, and Latina/o Americans, racial efficacy is a more consistent and robust predictor of political participation than standard internal and external efficacy measures. Further, we show that racial efficacy exhibits associations with conventional and unconventional forms of participation that distinguish whites from people of color. We conclude by discussing how people’s racial efficacy informs their engagement in politics, from voting to protests.

The markings of linked fate among Asian Americans and Latinxs.

Linked fate, or the degree to which individuals feel that their lives are tied to other group members' lives, can mobilize collective action and strengthen commonalities. Yet, linked fate remains underresearched, particularly among Asian Americans and Latinxs. Using the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Postelection Survey, the present study draws on García Coll et al.'s (1996) integrative model to examine associations between three domains of linked fate (immigrant, minority, coethnic) and demographic and structural factors (age, gender, nativity, education, income, language, skin color, neighborhood diversity, social stratification). Education, discrimination, and feeling excluded are positively related to immigrant, minority, and coethnic-linked fate; age is negatively related. Income and nativity were not significant predictors. Implications for fostering linked fate and coalition building within and across Asians and Latinxs are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Foreign Policy Preferences and Vote Choice Under Semi-Presidentialism

Under semi-presidential regimes, directly elected presidents often play a central role in foreign policy, but their responsibility for the economy is limited. I propose an office-centred explanation of voter behaviour in semi-presidential elections based on the foreign policy preferences of the electorate. In order to explore the empirical applicability of this addition to the theory, I explore the Lithuanian case: a semi-presidential country where the president has substantial powers in foreign and defence policy and the presidents are usually non-partisan. I employ a dataset from the Lithuanian 2019 post-election survey that offers a battery of items measuring the positions of voters on foreign policy issues. When controlling for alternative explanations, I find that foreign policy preferences (measured as an index of voter attitudes towards Russia and defence) are a strong and stable determinant of vote choice, in both the first and second rounds of presidential elections.

Married with children: do intermarriage and children impact political orientations?

ABSTRACT We test the possibility that social contact through interracial marriage impacts racial attitudes. We assume that interracial couples experience intergroup contact that is meaningfully different from same-race couples. Little research examines the impact of mate selection and reproduction on political and racial attitudes. In this paper, we advance the research on the potential impact of mate selection and reproduction on couples’ racial attitudes. Using racialized socialization theory, we test whether interracial couples hold similar views to other multiracial couples compared to same-race couples. A secondary hypothesis concerns whether interracial couples with children hold distinct racial and political attitudes. We use the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS). We find that non-Hispanic whites, Blacks, and Asians in interracial relationships are more likely to indicate that these groups experience discrimination compared to their co-ethnic counterparts who are in relationships with co-ethnics. We also find some support for our expectation that having children in an interracial marriage has an impact on the racial attitudes of non-Hispanic whites. Our results contribute to the growing research on the political attitudes of interracial couples as well as the impact of their having children upon their political preferences.

Electoral politics after the crisis: Change, fluctuations and stability in the 2021 Althingi Election

We present an analysis of the 2021 Althingi election in Iceland based on several key indicators obtained from the post-election voter survey of the Icelandic National Election Study (ICENES). The overall question we seek to address concerns the degree to which Icelandic politics have continued to move towards either recovery or transformation after the political and economic upheavals of 2008. The 2021 campaign and election were conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the government enjoyed high support across the political spectrum for its handling of the outbreak and its economic consequences. The election resulted in the coalition parties increasing their vote share by 1.5 percentage points. Based on the ICENES data, we find that 45% of voters switched parties in 2021, compared with 2017, which is slightly lower than in previous elections. On the issue dimensions of state–market and integration–isolation, we observe a sharp return towards more pro-market and pro-integration attitudes, respectively. Trust in politicians and satisfaction with how democracy works continued to increase from an all-time low in 2009. We also observe that the youngest age groups continued to be least likely to vote, spent less time following the campaign and were more inclined to follow news on social media. We conclude that Icelandic politics seem to have reached a balance after the crisis, albeit a new balance that is characterised by a more fragmented party system than before.

The Influence of Political Efficacy on Voter Turnout in South Africa

ABSTRACT South Africa's recent democratic elections have witnessed a decline in political participation. Yet few studies examine the influence of political efficacy on the decision to participate. Using 2014 and 2019 post-election public opinion survey data captured after these respective national and provincial elections, the paper addresses a research gap by demonstrating a relationship between a respondent's level of internal and external political efficacy and their likelihood of voting across two consecutive elections. It finds that external political efficacy, and to a lesser extent, internal efficacy shapes the decision to vote. The responsiveness of the political system is a key determinant of voting even after other key predictors of participation are accounted for. It concludes that years of state-based failures have eroded citizen perceptions of political system responsiveness which has, in turn, undermined how citizens perceive the utility of their vote.

Medios de comunicación, información política y emociones hacia partidos políticos en España

Media, and in recent years social media, are a space for political confrontation that generate a framework for the interpretation of democracy and affections. Their consumption directly affects citizens attitudes, reinforcing previous beliefs and building both a cognitive and emotional framing. From this viewpoint, emotions are constructed and circulate socially within the framework of political communication. The objective of this article is to investigate the extent to which and the conditions under which media and social media determine citizens’ emotions towards the different political actors in Spain. To this aim, a analysis has been carried out using the Post-Election Survey for the November 2019 General Elections. As main results, it is shown that citizens who consume political information in Spain through any type of media present a more active emotional profile, with a greater presence of negative emotions than positive ones and, with a greater intensity of aversion on the internet. Moreover, the different supports have their own characteristics, highlighting the activation of enthusiasm towards left-wing parties on television and a generalization of negative emotions towards all formations and candidates on social media, especially on Twitter.

The generation gap in direct democracy: Age vs. cohort effects

We document a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics that is causally related to aging. To this end, we combine different sources of postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. Young voters are more likely to support initiatives that favor their own generation in the present, e.g., a lower retirement age or increased unemployment benefits, or in favor of all generations in the future, e.g., environment protection. To estimate the causal effect of aging on political attitudes, we propose a novel unconstrained panel rank regression approach that separately identifies age and cohort effects. The aging effect on political attitudes is robust for controlling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habituation-induced status-quo bias.

Rapid changes in public perception toward a conservation initiative

AbstractRapid, widespread changes in public perceptions and behaviors have the potential to influence conservation outcomes. However, few studies have documented whether and how such shifts occur throughout the span of a conservation initiative. We examined the 2020 ballot initiative to reintroduce wolves into Colorado, which passed with less support than prior surveys had estimated. We conducted a postelection survey of Colorado residents using the same methods as our preelection survey to compare responses between surveys and to official election results. Reported voting in favor of wolf reintroduction in the postelection survey decreased in comparison to voting intentions shared in the preelection survey, but not enough to reflect the actual vote. While bias from survey methods and/or sampling contributed to differences, we also found evidence that public perception changed. Specifically, beliefs about the potential for negative impacts of wolves increased, while beliefs about the potential for positive impacts of wolves decreased. Our findings highlight the need to conduct longitudinal monitoring of public perception given perceptions may be highly fluid as different entities attempt to sway voters. In addition, to better understand evolving perceptions, survey methods and sampling need to be improved.

The Private Is Political: Partisan Persuasion through Mobile Instant Messaging Services

AbstractThe use of mobile instant messaging services (MIMS) for the dissemination of electoral information has been increasing in recent years. Drawing on a novel dataset from a 2015 post-electoral survey in Spain, we focus on individuals’ digital political behavior, both public and private. Our results show that, in a context of high electoral volatility and polarization, right-wing supporters are willing to engage in political persuasion activities using tools such as MIMS in the private digital arena but not publicly (e.g., on social media). In contrast, left-wing milieus develop mobilization efforts in both public and private settings. We argue that distinct political styles are key in accounting for the difference in channels of partisan persuasion, in which preference falsification mechanisms are involved in the public sphere. These results bear important implications for the understanding of false information exchanges in the private sphere, social media activism, and political participation. Additionally, they help us shed light on the recurring failure of polls in capturing electoral behavior among right-wing voters in polarized elections and referenda.

Economic and Pandemic Performance Voting in the 2021 Czech National Election

The literature on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected vote choice provides evidence of both ‘rally-’round-the-flag’ effects and the influence of perceived government pandemic performance. However, this evidence concerns short-term effects. Much less is known about how COVID-19-related economic changes and government measures in response to the pandemic have affected vote choice over a longer period. Using a post-election survey from the Czech Republic fielded in October 2021, we examine the effect of pandemic-related issues on support for governing parties in an election one and a half years after the pandemic started, focusing on a general evaluation of the economy and of government pandemic performance and on individual economic and health-related experiences of COVID-19. First, a negative health-related experience of COVID-19 did not affect vote choice. Second, only business loss negatively affected governmental support; job loss had no effect. Third, retrospective evaluations of the national economy and government pandemic performance affected vote choice, while retrospective evaluation of one’s personal economic situation did not. Fourth, the majority of the above-mentioned effects drove support for the dominant governing party (ANO) and only in a limited way support for the junior cabinet partner (ČSSD).

The Logic of the Punisher: Retrospective Voting and Hyper-Accountability in Lithuania

This article explores the roots of electoral hyper-accountability in Central and Eastern Europe. I focus on Lithuania: a country that is a stable liberal democracy, but has re-elected none of its governments (in the same party composition) since the restoration of independence. Survey data from the Lithuanian National Election Study reveal that Lithuanian voters are constantly dissatisfied with the economy and retrospectively evaluate it worse than the objective indicators would suggest. This partially explains why the Lithuanian voters constantly turn away from the government parties at parliamentary elections. However, their subsequent choice between parliamentary and new (previously marginal) parties is another puzzle. Using the 2016 Lithuanian post-election survey, I test how retrospective voting (economic and corruption issues) and political factors (trust and satisfaction with democracy) explain vote choice between the three types of parties (governmental, oppositional, and successful new party). It appears that new parties in Lithuania capitalize on double dissatisfaction, as the logic of the punisher comprises two steps. First, due to economic discontent, she turns away from the incumbent. Second, due to political mistrust, she often turns not to the parliamentary opposition, but to new parties. An analysis of retrospective economic evaluations hints at the political roots of hyper-accountability: these two steps are connected, as dissatisfaction with democracy is a strong predictor of negative retrospective evaluations of economy. Additional analysis of the 2019 post-election survey corroborates the results and reveals that a similar logic also applies in direct presidential elections.

Reconsidering Group Interests

AbstractThis paper aims to explore attitudes toward immigration among two non-White groups, Asian Americans and Black Americans. For more than a decade, individuals from Asia have comprised the majority of immigrants entering the United States each year. Today, the majority of the Asian American U.S. population remains foreign-born. Yet using data collected from the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey and the 2016 National Asian American Survey—a time period marked by high levels of saliency with regard to immigration issues—we find that Black Americans, the majority of whom are U.S.-born, exhibit even more progressive attitudes towards immigration, both legal and undocumented, than mostly foreign-born Asian Americans. Our research challenges economic and material theories related to immigration attitudes and suggests that political connections to and “linked fate” with other minorities better explain why Black Americans exhibit more progressive attitudes toward immigration than Asian Americans.

Not All Black Lives Matter: Officer-Involved Deaths and the Role of Victim Characteristics in Shaping Political Interest and Voter Turnout

This article presents evidence that exposure to officer-involved deaths of low-threat Black victims increases political interest and voter turnout among Black respondents under age 40 to the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey. Victim race, threat level, and visibility affect the likelihood that an officer-involved death will mobilize political interest. Political interest and voter turnout are higher among the treatment group, which was exposed to high-visibility/low-threat Black victims only before participating in the CMPS, than in the control group, which was exposed to such victims only after taking the survey. Exposing young Black respondents to all victims without accounting for threat, visibility, or race does not affect political interest or voter turnout, suggesting the importance of these factors for mobilization. The findings clarify the role that Black Lives Matter activists, journalists, and watchdog groups can play in countering the police actions that shape the visibility and framing of Black victims of police violence.

Broadening learning communities during COVID-19: developing a curricular framework for telemedicine education in neurology

BackgroundIn response to the cancellation of clinical clerkships due to COVID-19, the Johns Hopkins (JH) Neurology Education Team developed a virtual elective to enhance medical students’ clinical telemedicine skills and foster community between academic institutions.MethodsThis two-week clinical elective, entitled “Virtual Patient Rounds in Neurology,” was administered once in April 2020 and once in May 2020. The curriculum included attending/fellow-led Virtual Rounds, Student Presentations, and Asynchronous Educational Activities. We also developed a new lecture series entitled JHNeuroChats, which consisted of live synchronous lectures presented by JH faculty and Virtual Visiting Professors. Trainees and faculty from outside institutions were invited to participate in the JHNeuroChats. Students and faculty completed pre- and post-elective surveys to assess the educational impact of the elective. Student’s t-tests were used to compare scores between pre- and post-elective surveys.ResultsSeven JH medical students enrolled in each iteration of the elective, and an additional 337 trainees and faculty, representing 14 different countries, registered for the JHNeuroChats. We hosted 48 unique JHNeuroChats, 32 (66.7%) of which were led by invited Virtual Visiting Professors. At the end of the elective, students reported increased confidence in virtually obtaining a history (P < 0.0001) and performing a telehealth neurological physical exam (P < 0.0001), compared to the start of the course. In addition, faculty members reported increased confidence in teaching clinical medicine virtually, although these findings were not statistically significant (P = 0.15).ConclusionsDespite the constraints imposed by COVID-19, this virtual Neurology elective increased medical students’ confidence in certain telemedicine skills and successfully broadened our learning community to encompass learners from around the world. As virtual medical education becomes more prevalent, it is important that we are intentional in creating opportunities for shared learning across institutions. We believe that this elective can serve as a model for these future educational collaborations.