Post-crisis Monetary Research Articles

Money Market Segmentation and the Transmission of Post-crisis Monetary Policy

Money Market Segmentation and the Transmission of Post-crisis Monetary Policy

Construction of China’s financial conditions index in the post-crisis era

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to summarize different methods of constructing the financial conditions index (FCI) and analyze current studies on constructing FCI for China. Due to shifts of China’s financial mechanisms in the post-crisis era, conventional ways of FCI construction have their limitations. Design/methodology/approach The paper suggests improvements in two aspects, i.e. using time-varying weights and introducing non-financial variables. In the empirical study, the author first develops an FCI with fixed weights for comparison, constructs a post-crisis FCI based on time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and finally examines the FCI with time-varying weights concerning its explanatory and predictive power for inflation. Findings Results suggest that the FCI with time-varying weights performs better than one with fixed weights and the former better reflects China’s financial conditions. Furthermore, introduction of credit availability improves the FCI. Originality/value FCI constructed in this paper goes ahead of inflation by about 11 months, and it has strong explanatory and predictive power for inflation. Constructing an appropriate FCI is important for improving the effectiveness and predictive power of the post-crisis monetary policy and foe achieving both economic and financial stability.

Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

This paper studies how several macrofinancial factors are associated over time with the evolution of covered interest parity (CIP) deviations in the decade after the Global Financial Crisis. Changes in a number of risk- and policy-related factors have a significant association with the evolution of CIP deviations. Key measures of FX market liquidity and intermediaries’ risk-taking capacity are strongly correlated with the cross-currency basis (the deviation from CIP), and the close relationship between broad U.S. dollar strength and the basis is driven mainly by a common factor depending on other safe-haven currencies’ comovements. Postcrisis monetary policies also play a role, as demonstrated by the relationship between CIP deviations, central bank balance sheets, and term premia. Risk-related factors have more explanatory power than monetary policy-related factors over the entire 2010-2018 period, but they are approximately equally influential over the period’s second half. Further highlighting the role of bank regulation, we offer evidence that the year-end dynamics of the three- month dollar basis depend on financial regulations targeting global systemically important financial institutions. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

An endogenous money perspective on the post-crisis monetary policy debate

Anumber ofdebatesare takingplace regarding theappropriateresponse of monetarypolicy both to the crisis and the Great Recession that followed, particularly in regard to interest on reserve balances and so-called unconventional monetary policy operations. This paper describes in detail an endogenous money perspective on the interactions between central bank operations and banks, and then shows that interest on reserve balances does not impede the transmission of monetary policy, while quantitative easing does not necessarily enhance it.

An Endogenous Money Perspective on the Post-Crisis Monetary Policy Debate

A number of debates are taking place regarding the appropriate response of monetary policy both to the crisis and the Great Recession that followed, particularly in regard to interest on reserve balances and so-called unconventional monetary policy operations. This paper describes in detail an endogenous money perspective on the interactions between central bank operations and banks, and then shows that interest on reserve balances does not impede the transmission of monetary policy, while quantitative easing does not necessarily enhance it.

Post-Crisis Monetary Policy Frameworks: The Differences between Advanced and Emerging Economies

These notes provide a simple framework to analyze the changing environment for central banks both in advanced and emerging economies. Three main points are stressed: first, that the ramifications of crisis into central banks are being multiple, affecting the structural setting of their policymaking – the central bank’s dashboard - and impinging on the management of day-to-day policymaking in the crisis management process; second, that these extraordinary times are persistent and they will have an even more lasting impact on monetary policy frameworks; and third, that there are large differences between advanced and emerging markets economies. More precisely, the changes are more profound and demanding in the advanced economies.

Post-crisis Monetary Policy Frameworks in sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: Most of the monetary policy frameworks which use a domestic anchor for monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) employ quantitative money targets. Although these frameworks proved useful in reducing inflation in SSA, they are not well suited to the discretionary fine tuning of monetary policy. Monetary policy frameworks should be reformed in the post-crisis period, especially in the ‘frontier markets’ of SSA, where the need for activist demand management will grow in line with economic development and the integration of domestic financial sectors into global markets. Reforms should include adopting a broader set of policy objectives in addition to inflation, replacing broad money as the intermediate target with a more sophisticated set of indicators and forecasts and reform of the operating target. In essence, central banks should introduce a form of inflation targeting lite. This should be complemented by measures to strengthen the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Russia’s Financial System Strategy: Stimulating Modernization of Economy (Banking Sector, Monetary Policy, Taxes)

This paper provides Russia’s financial system strategy covering three blocks: banking sector, monetary policy and taxes. The post-crisis strategy in banking sector contains proposals on achieving soundness and stability of Russian banking system, problem banks restructuring, as well as increase in efficiency of banking institutions. The post-crisis monetary policy presumes multi-targeting of different goals, among which are economic growth and balanced, less volatile financial system. Proposals on tax regime improvement include tax burden decrease and stimulating innovations.

Korea's Post-Crisis Monetary Policy Reforms

Korea's financial crisis of 1997–1998 was brought about by the unsustainable combination of large capital inflows and an inefficient financial system. The Bank of Korea contributed to the crisis primarily through its failures as the regulator of the financial system rather than as the conductor of monetary policy. Our paper explores the role of the two major monetary policy reforms Korea has implemented in response to the crisis — the establishment of a new financial regulator and the adoption of inflation targeting — in Korea's efforts to build a stronger and more efficient financial system, thereby preventing crises in the future.

Post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailands

This paper surveys the post-crisis monetary and exchange rate policies of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Malaysia has pegged the ringgit while Indonesia and Thailand have adopted heavily managed exchange rates. Under their IMF programs, Thailand and Indonesia set base money targets, but Thailand has moved, and Indonesia is now moving, to inflation targeting, using interest rates as the short-term instrument. Malaysia also sets interest rates. The ability of the three central banks to set interest rates and also pursue an exchange rate target with an interest rate target has been bolstered by restrictions on the internationalisation of the domestic currency. The three central banks have also had to sterilise the monetary effects of their foreign exchange interventions. It is argued that inflation targeting is now a good policy choice, but that a more freely floating exchange rate would be better than sterilisation of balance of payments surpluses or deficits.