Post-ban Period Research Articles

How did the ‘whistle-to-whistle’ ban affect gambling advertising on TV? A live football matching study

Background In 2019, the gambling industry introduced a voluntary partial advertising ban during live sports broadcasts in the United Kingdom known as the ‘whistle-to-whistle’ ban. This study explores the change in television advertising around live football games following the introduction of this ban. Methods Inverse Probability Weighted (IPW) matching models identified the change in the frequency of advertising associated with the implementation of restrictions in each section, and across the entire duration, of a live football game. Data on UK television schedules (Concise Media, TVSportsGuide) and gambling advertising (Nielsen Media) covered 3 months (1st September to 1st December) pre (2018), and post-ban (2019). There were 1049 live football games across the period studied: 468 in 2018 and 581 in 2019. Results The implementation of the ban was associated with a reduction in advertising (2.3 advertisements per-programme (p < 0.001, CI [−2.75, −1.84])), driven predominantly by reductions during half-time (2.18 advertisements per-programme (p < 0.001, CI [−2.32, −2.04])). It was associated with an increase in advertisements (0.34 advertisements per-programme (p < 0.001, CI [0.09,0.59])) during the pre-match section. In the post-ban period, an average of 3 (SD: 3.5) advertisements per-programme remained. Conclusions A voluntary partial gambling advertising ban in the UK was associated with reductions in television advertising during live football games during the restricted period. There is evidence of increased advertising in the unrestricted period due to the partial nature of the ban. Future research is needed to explore the impact of the ban on other types of advertising, and across other channels.

Smoking prevalence and purchasing of menthol cigarettes since the menthol flavour ban in Great Britain: a population-based survey between 2020 and 2023

BackgroundMenthol cigarettes have been banned in Great Britain (GB) since May 2020. Still, menthol accessories and unlabelled cigarettes perceived as mentholated are available, and people can buy menthol cigarettes overseas...

Trends in smoking-related diseases by socioeconomic position following a national smoking ban in 2007: a nationwide study in the Danish population

BackgroundNational comprehensive smoke-free legislation has been found to decrease the incidence of several smoking-related diseases. In 2007, Denmark introduced a national smoking ban, which banned smoking indoor in workplaces and public places, although only partial restrictions were applied in certain settings. We examined the impact of the smoking ban on smoking-related diseases and whether this differed across socioeconomic groups.MethodsInterrupted time series analyses of nationwide register data were performed using Poisson regression models to examine the differential impact of the smoking ban on monthly incidence rates of acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and smoking-related cancers from 2002 to 2015. Immediate changes in incidence rates after the smoking ban and long-term changes in disease trends were estimated by comparing data from the pre- and post-ban period. Models were stratified by socioeconomic position.ResultsOverall, we found neither immediate changes in rates of acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and smoking-related cancers following the smoking ban nor long-term post-ban changes in disease trends as compared to before the ban. Results did not differ across socioeconomic groups. A pronounced socioeconomic gradient in incidence rates was observed for all outcomes both before and after the smoking ban.ConclusionThe national smoking ban was not associated with a lower incidence of smoking-related diseases in the post-ban period compared to pre-ban levels and no differences between socioeconomic groups were observed. Future tobacco control in Denmark should consider which measures most effectively target the low socioeconomic groups to decrease the current strong socioeconomic inequality in health.

U.S. plastic waste exports: A state-by-state analysis pre- and post-China import ban

This study analyzes the regional implications of China's 2017 import ban on plastic waste by examining U.S. census data. A statistically significant decrease in total U.S. plastic waste exports was found, dropping from about 1.4 million tons to 0.6 million tons in the post-ban period. California remained the top exporter, throughout both pre- and post-ban periods, while South Carolina exhibited the highest per capita exports. Malaysia emerged as the largest importer of U.S. plastic waste, followed by Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. The ban also led to a change in the composition of the exported plastic waste. Ethylene polymers increased from 32.6% of total exports in the pre-ban period to 46.9% in the post-ban period. Other plastics (vinyl chloride polymers, styrene polymers, and for plastics not elsewhere specified or included) decreased from 67.4% of total exports in the pre-ban period to 53.1% in the post-ban period. Moreover, we found that exporting plastic waste has significant environmental and human health impacts. For example, the Global Warming Potential (GWP) decreased from 20 million tons CO2-eq in the scenario where 100% of plastics are exported, or 25 million tons exported from the U.S. since 2002, to −11.1 million tons CO2-eq in the scenario where 100% of plastics are treated domestically. Transportation exacerbates these impacts for exported waste scenarios, increasing to 5.4 million tons CO2-eq when plastics are exported by ship while decreasing to 0.9 million tons CO2-eq for domestic treatment. Although exporting plastic waste is initially cost-effective, our study highlights that investing in domestic waste management can yield significant long-term benefits, considering the environmental and public health impacts. Therefore, it is crucial to prioritize context-specific solutions to address the challenges of the evolving global plastic waste landscape.

Assessing the Impact of the Massachusetts Temporary Flavor Ban on Licensed Tobacco Retailers.

In 2019, the state of Massachusetts signed into law the first statewide sales restrictions of flavored ENDS/tobacco products for both physical and online shops in response to a previous executive order to curb E-Cigarette, or Vaping Product, Use Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) cases that were surging throughout the nation. This study obtained licensure data from the Massachusetts Department of Revenue, to observe the changes in retail licensure comparing the pre ban (October 2018-August 2019) and post ban periods (October 2020- August 2021). A series of linear regression tests were conducted on both periods using census tract data to explore potential associations with sociodemographic covariates, including median age, median household income, and population proportion by gender, age, and race/ethnicity groups. Analysis of the Massachusetts post-ban period (October 2020-August 2021) found that new tobacco retail licenses issued decreased by 52.9% (n = 968) when compared to the pre-ban period (October 2018-August 2019) of 1831. A significant positive association was discovered between change in new retailer count and proportion male population (2.48 ± 1.05, P = .018) as well as proportion Hispanic population (1.19 ± .25, P < .001) at the census tract level. Our analysis indicates that, following the temporary MA flavor sales ban, the total number of licenses decreased, though decreases were more pronounced for new licenses when compared to continuing licenses. Higher increases in new tobacco retailer density were significantly associated with concentration of male and Hispanic populations.

The Impact of the Danish National Smoking Ban From 2007 on the Incidence of Eight Smoking-related Diseases: A Nationwide Register-based Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

Previous research has documented the effect of comprehensive smoking bans on preventing various adverse health outcomes in the years post-ban. In 2007, Denmark implemented a national smoking ban that prohibited indoor smoking in workplaces and public settings, although only partial restrictions applied in specific premises such as small bars, one-person offices, and in psychiatric units. We tested the hypothesis that the implementation of the national smoking ban was associated with a decrease in incidence of smoking-related morbidity in the Danish population compared to the pre-ban period. Interrupted time series analyses including the entire Danish population (≥30 years) was conducted. Information of hospitalizations and cause-specific mortality due to acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, hemorrhagic stroke, ischemic stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer in bronchus and lung, cancer in lip, mouth, oral cavity, and pharynx, and bladder cancer were obtained from population-based registers. Poisson regression models accounting for seasonal variations and secular trends quantified immediate changes in incidence rates occurring at the time of the smoking ban as well as changes in the post-ban trend compared to pre-ban levels. Overall, we observed no consistent declines in incidence of cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or the specific types of cancer in the post-ban period compared with the pre-ban period. No consistent reduction in incidence of smoking-related diseases was observed after the smoking ban was introduced in Denmark. This probably reflects that the Danish smoking ban included several exemptions, resulting in a less comprehensive ban compared to those introduced in other countries. In this study, we found that the Danish national smoking ban from 2007 did not consistently reduced the incidence of eight smoking-related outcomes in the post-ban period compared to pre-ban levels. We argue that due to the exemptions in the smoking ban, which for example allowed smoking in specific premises of the care and nursing sector, in one-person offices, and small bars, the ban was not sufficiently comprehensive to influence smoking behavior and thereof the incidence of smoking-related morbidity. Our findings highlight the importance of introducing comprehensive legislative measures to yield largest health benefits at a population level.

Management of Magnet Ingestions at a Large Tertiary Care Children's Hospital.

To review the clinical management and outcomes of magnet ingestions at a large tertiary children's hospital. To determine the association of frequency of high-powered magnet ingestion with the regulation of these magnets. Children <18 years who presented to the emergency room and were admitted to the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia for ingestion of single or multiple magnets from January 2008 to December 2020 were included. Demographics, symptoms, management, and outcomes were analyzed. The frequency of magnet ingestion was compared over 3 eras: (1) pre-ban (2008-2012), (2) intra-ban (2013-2016), and (3) post-ban (2017-2020). There were 167 magnet ingestions, including 99 with multiple magnets. Most patients (59%) were male and median age was 6 (interquartile range, 3-9) years. Most single magnet ingestions (86%) were discharged with outpatient monitoring, and none experienced severe outcomes. Multiple magnet ingestions led to significant morbidity including hospitalizations (68%), endoscopic procedures (48%), surgical procedures (14%), and severe outcomes (12%). Most patients (75%) were asymptomatic, however, there was a higher risk of surgery and severe complications based on the presence of symptoms ( P = 0.003). The rate of surgical intervention was higher with ≥3 magnets (31.7%) compared to 2 magnets (2.4%) ( P < 0.003). Additionally, we found an 160% increase in children with magnet ingestions in the post-ban period ( P = 0.021). Multiple magnet ingestion is associated with high morbidity and rate of severe outcomes. There is a relationship between public policy of magnet sale and frequency of magnet ingestion.

The Impact of Banning Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence From US State-Level Policies

ObjectivesIn the fall of 2019, several states in the United States passed emergency bans on the sale of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), in response to an outbreak of illnesses strongly linked to tetrahydrocannabinol vaping products that received national news coverage. Given that ENDS are potential alternative nicotine products for adult smokers, banning ENDS may have unintended consequences. This study provides evidence of an association between state-level ENDS bans and cigarette sales. MethodsWe used difference-in-differences and generalized synthetic control methods to estimate the impacts of the emergency ENDS bans on cigarette sales by comparing treatment states that passed ENDS bans in fall 2019 (Massachusetts, Washington, and Rhode Island), halted states that revoked the announced ENDS bans, and control states. ResultsOur results show that cigarette sales in ban states were higher than would have been observed otherwise in the post-ban period. A full ban on ENDS was associated with increased cigarette sales of 7.5% in Massachusetts (P < .01); banning non-tobacco flavored ENDS was associated with 4.6% (P < .1) higher-than-expected cigarette sales. We did not detect statistically significant impacts in halted states, and placebo tests, which randomly assigned control states as treatments, showed no difference in observed cigarette sales in the same period. ConclusionsThis study provides evidence that banning ENDS is associated with increased cigarette sales. Future research is needed to determine the long-term impact of these policies.

An assessment of the impact of the 2014 US elephant trophy importation ban on the hunting patterns in Matetsi Hunting Complex, north-west Zimbabwe

This study assessed the influence of a 2014 United States of America (USA) imposed ban on the importation of elephant (Loxodonta africana) hunted trophies from Zimbabwe on the hunting patterns (i.e., elephant quota allocation, utilisation and hunter’s or client country of origin dynamics) in Matetsi Hunting Complex. The study was divided into two period, i.e., pre- ban (2008–2013) and post-ban (2014–2017). Although the study results showed a non-significant quota allocation variation difference between the pre-ban and post-ban periods, there was however, a significant decline in quota utilisation in post-ban period compared to the pre-ban period. Accordingly, a significant decline in US hunters or clients was recorded in the post-ban period. It is concluded that trophy hunting and trade bans by some global north countries without an alternative global conservation framework that provides conservation incentives will likely reverse the gains in wildlife conservation and rural development in some global south countries where sustainable utilisation is an integral part of the wildlife conservation practice.

Semi-centennial sediment records of HCHs and DDTs from the East China marginal seas: Role of lateral transport in catchment

We reconstructed the history of the inputs of hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) into the marine environment to reveal the time-dependent influence of sources and associated anthropogenic activities in China, based on 210Pb-dated cores from the East China marginal seas (ECMS). The temporal dynamics of pesticide contamination expresses as deposition fluxes, inventories, and half-life estimations varied among the cores, suggesting heterogeneity in transport pathways of pollutants. The depth profiles of pesticide inputs closely followed their historical production and application timelines in China, and were also affected by human activities in catchments, with general declines in HCH and DDT inputs to the coring sites after their peak deposition. Despite the prevalence of occurrence of weathered HCH/DDT in the cores, there were clear source-dependent differences in isomeric composition and accumulation between before and after these pesticides were banned. α-HCH and p,p′-DDT were relatively more enriched in sediments from the pre-ban period when heavy technical HCHs and DDTs use occurred, as indicated by the higher α-/β-HCH and lower (DDE + DDD)/DDTs ratios, and the larger fractions of α-HCH and p,p′-DDT influxes to the coring sites in the ΣHCH and ΣDDT fluxes, respectively, while this pattern shifted to be historical residue-based in the post-ban period. The difference in the recent influxes of pesticides to core sediments and their higher post-ban inventories highlight the increasing importance of historical sources over time and continuous input of weathered residues into marine environment via lateral transport.

Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether Exposure from Gasoline in the U.S. Population, NHANES 2001-2012.

Background:Methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) was used as a gasoline additive in the United States during 1995–2006. Because of concerns about potential exposure and health effects, some U.S. states began banning MTBE use in 2002, leading to a nationwide phaseout in 2006.Objectives:We investigated the change in blood MTBE that occurred during the years in which MTBE was being phased out of gasoline.Methods:We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2001–2012 to assess the change in blood MTBE over this period. We fit sample-weighted multivariate linear regression models to 12,597 human blood MTBE concentrations from the NHANES 2001–2002 to 2011–2012 survey cycles.Results:The unweighted proportion of the individuals with MTBE blood levels above the limit of detection (LOD) of was 93.9% for 2001–2002. This portion dropped to 25.4% for the period 2011–2012. Weighted blood MTBE median levels (ng/L) (25th and 75th percentiles) decreased from for the period from 2001–2002 to for the period from 2005–2006. For the entire postban period (2007–2012), MTBE median levels were below the detection limit of .Discussion:These decreases in blood MTBE coincided with multiple statewide bans that began in 2002 and a nationwide ban in 2006. The multivariate log-linear regression model for the NHANES 2003–2004 data showed significantly higher blood MTBE concentrations in the group who pumped gasoline less than 7 h before questionnaire administration compared to those who pumped gasoline more than 12 h before questionnaire administration (). This study is the first large-scale, national-level confirmation of substantial decrease in blood MTBE levels in the general population following the phaseout of the use of MTBE as a fuel additive. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5572

Bitcoin futures: trade it or ban it?

This paper examines the impact of South Korea’s ban on Bitcoin futures on intraday spot volatility, liquidity and volatility–volume relationship. The results show that while reducing the permanent component of intraday spot volatility, the imposition of a ban on Bitcoin futures trading increases the transitory component. For intraday spot liquidity, different liquidity proxies indicate heterogeneous results. Moreover, we identify a positive and unidirectional effect of intraday spot volume on volatility. This effect appears to be stronger in the post-ban period. Overall, over the past few months, South Korea’s Bitcoin futures ban generally has had a significant impact on the intraday dynamics of the Bitcoin spot market.

Credit default swaps and the UK 2008–09 short sales ban

ABSTRACTMost studies of the short sales ban of UK financial stocks from September 2008 to January 2009 fail to control for the UK’s worst ever banking crisis and the underlying increase in risk. This paper studies the ban’s impact on the 13 large financials with credit default swaps (CDS) and 20 smaller stocks without CDS. The results reveal that returns of banned stocks Granger cause CDS returns in the pre- and post-ban periods, but causality runs from CDS to stock returns during the ban period. Underlying risk proxied by the CDS probability of default increased during the ban and the immediate pre- and post-ban periods which highlights an endogeneity problem ignored in some studies. This increased risk provides a plausible rationale for why CDS and related equity bid-ask spreads - which increased during the ban period – failed to fall significantly in the post-ban period. Panel regression results indicate that probability of default was an important economic determinant of stock bid-ask spreads during the ban period. Finally, our results suggest that the ban offered direct price support for the smaller non-CDS stocks during the ban period and indirect support for CDS stocks from their pre-ban to their post-ban levels.

Spatial and temporal trends of forest cover as a response to policy interventions in the district Chitral, Pakistan

Forest protection policies potentially reduce deforestation and forest degradation. Using satellite imagery, a supervised classification method and a post-classification change detection technique, this study quantifies forest cover changes prior (1973–1993) and after (1993–2015) a nation-wide logging ban in 1993. Using logistic model, we also assess and compare the relative importance and patterns of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation between the two periods. We show that despite a complete ban on green felling, total forest in the study area has decreased from 89,938 ha in 1973 to 68,904 ha in 2015. Proportionally more forest (13,636 ha) disappears during the post-logging ban as compare to the pre-logging ban period (7398 ha) with annual conversion rate of 0.43% and 0.82% respectively. In particular, forest degradation has accelerated in the region after the imposition of the logging ban policy. However, sparse forest conversion appears to slightly slowdown after the imposition of the logging ban. The logistic analysis shows that most of the deforestation in the pre-ban period occurred in the high elevation range (3000 to 4000 m), while during the post-ban period more can be observed in the low elevation range (2500 and 3500 m). Opposite to deforestation, forest degradation shifted from low elevation range (2500 to 3000 m) during the pre-ban period to high elevation range (3000 to 3500 m) of mature and old growth stands during the post-ban period. Distances to political boundary and forest edge were the other significant variables that behaved differently between the two periods. We found that factors influencing deforestation and forest degradation were not only time and space specific but also varied with the policy setting.It is argued that forest depletion continued even after the ban because of high demand for firewood and timber. However, the changes in the behavior of explanatory variables over time might be attributed to the influence of policy and a general decrease in resource availability in the region.

Price discovery in euro area sovereign credit markets and the ban on naked CDS

Abstract The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area saw credit spreads on sovereign bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) surge for a number of member states. The rise in sovereign yields was accompanied by a significant increase in sovereign CDS market activity. This pattern raised concerns that destabilising speculation via outright short-selling of CDS (so-called ‘naked CDS’) was behind the increase in bond yields. In response, policy-makers introduced a ban on naked CDS trading. We investigate the effect of the ban on the price discovery process of sovereign credit risk, contrasting results for the post-ban period with those obtained prior to the ban. We use intraday data on sovereign CDS and bonds across a number of euro area countries. Our first main finding is that the CDS market dominates the bond market in terms of price discovery. That is, CDS premia in most cases adjust quicker to reflect new information than bond spreads. This result holds also when taking into account transaction costs. Our second main finding is that the ban on short-selling did not alter price discovery dynamics or reduce the efficiency of the market. Finally, we find that prior to the ban, CDS spreads were persistently higher than bond credit spreads, even after controlling for transaction costs. This points to the presence of market frictions that limit the ability of arbitrage forces to fully close pricing gaps between the two markets. However, these pricing discrepancies were in many cases largely eliminated following the introduction of the ban.

Long-term time trends in human intake of POPs in the Czech Republic indicate a need for continuous monitoring

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from the group of persistent organic pollutants are detected in human tissues years or even decades after their ban. Exposure to PCBs and OCPs can pose risks to human health. In the present study, we calculated the daily intakes of PCBs and OCPs in the Czech population and investigated the long-term trends of human exposure to POPs. Data on POP concentrations from a 16-year period of breast-milk monitoring were used. A toxicokinetic model with consideration of compound-specific elimination half-lives was used to calculate the mothers' daily intake of PCBs and OCPs representing the intake of POPs by all exposure routes. The calculated intakes were compared with dietary intakes calculated by the Czech National Institute of Public Health. The comparison shows good agreement of both intake estimates with decreasing intake trends of POPs in the Czech population in the time period studied. However, several fluctuations with peaks of higher levels were observed in both datasets which are not typical for the period after the ban of use and production of POPs. The available evidence suggests that the increases in chemical concentrations might be caused by food contamination. The calculated intakes of compounds with longer elimination half-lives, such as higher-chlorinated PCBs, were higher in older mothers. This “memory effect” was already observed in other studies and indicates higher exposure in earlier life periods of the mother. Our results suggest that exposure to POPs is still relevant for the Czech population in the period after the ban of the use and production of POPs (post-ban period), especially via food ingestion, though the intake trends are decreasing. Possible food contamination by POPs in the post-ban period requires further assessment.

Smokefree legislation effects on respiratory and sensory disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AimsThe aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to synthesize the available evidence in scientific papers of smokefree legislation effects on respiratory diseases and sensory and respiratory symptoms (cough, phlegm, red eyes, runny nose) among all populations.Materials and methodsSystematic review and meta-analysis were carried out. A search between January 1995 and February 2015 was performed in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases. Inclusion criteria were: 1) original scientific studies about smokefree legislation, 2) Data before and after legislation were collected, and 3) Impact on respiratory and sensory outcomes were assessed. Paired reviewers independently carried out the screening of titles and abstracts, data extraction from full-text articles, and methodological quality assessment.ResultsA total number of 1606 papers were identified. 50 papers were selected, 26 were related to symptoms (23 concerned workers). Most outcomes presented significant decreases in the percentage of people suffering from them, especially in locations with comprehensive measures and during the immediate post-ban period (within the first six months). Four (50%) of the papers concerning pulmonary function reported some significant improvement in expiratory parameters. Significant decreases were described in 13 of the 17 papers evaluating asthma hospital admissions, and there were fewer significant reductions in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admissions (range 1–36%) than for asthma (5–31%). Six studies regarding different respiratory diseases showed discrepant results, and four papers about mortality reported significant declines in subgroups. Low bias risk was present in 23 (46%) of the studies.ConclusionsSmokefree legislation appears to improve respiratory and sensory symptoms at short term in workers (the overall effect being greater in comprehensive smokefree legislation in sensory symptoms) and, to a lesser degree, rates of hospitalization for asthma.

Application of first order kinetics to characterize MTBE natural attenuation in groundwater

Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) was a gasoline oxygenate that became widely used in reformulated gasoline as a means to reduce air pollution in the 1990s. Unfortunately, many of the underground storage tanks containing reformulated gasoline experienced subsurface releases which soon became a health concern given the increase in public and private water supplies containing MTBE. Many states responded to this by banning the use of MTBE as an additive, including Connecticut. Although MTBE dissipates by natural attenuation, it continues to be prevalent in groundwater long after the Connecticut ban in 2004. This study estimated the rate of the natural attenuation in groundwater following the Connecticut ban by evaluating the MTBE concentration two years prior to and two years after the MTBE ban at eighty-three monitoring wells from twenty-two retail gasoline stations where MTBE contamination was observed. Sites chosen for this study had not undergone active remediation ensuring no artificial influence to the natural attenuation processes that controls the migration and dissipation of MTBE. Results indicate that MTBE has dissipated in the natural environment, at more than 80% of the sites and at approximately 82% of the individual monitoring wells. In general, dissipation approximated first order kinetics. Dissipation half-lives, calculated using concentration data from the two year period after the ban, ranged from approximately three weeks to just over seven years with an average half-life of 7.3months with little variability in estimates for different site characteristics. The accuracy of first order estimates to predict further MTBE dissipation were tested by comparing predicted concentrations with those observed after the two year post-ban period; the predicted concentrations closely match the observed concentrations which supports the use of first order kinetics for predictions of this nature.

Recommendations for Evaluating Temporal Trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants in Breast Milk.

Background:Biomonitoring data of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in breast milk are increasingly collected and available for quantitative analysis of levels and time trends. A common approach is to apply log-linear regression to calculate doubling and halving times of the POP concentrations based on the temporal trend observed in breast milk. However, there are different, sometimes conflicting interpretations of these doubling and halving times.Objectives:We provide a mechanistic understanding of doubling and halving times where possible. Five recommendations are proposed for dealing with POP concentration trends in breast milk during three distinct periods (pre-ban, transition, post-ban period).Discussion:Using temporal trends of BDE-47 and PCB-153 in breast milk data, we show which information can be gained from the time-trend data. To this end, we analyzed time trends of hypothetical POPs for different periods with time-variant exposure and different intrinsic elimination half-lives, using a dynamic population-based pharmacokinetic model. Different pieces of information can be extracted from time-trend data from different periods. The analysis of trends of short-lived POPs is rather straightforward and facilitates extraction of the intrinsic elimination half-lives from the breast milk data. However, trends of slowly eliminated POPs only provide indications for the exposure time trend.Conclusions:Time-trend data of rapidly eliminated POPs provide information on exposure time trends and elimination half-lives. Temporal trends of slowly eliminated POPs are more complicated to interpret, and the extraction of exposure time trends and elimination half-lives require data sets covering several decades.Citation:Gyalpo T, Scheringer M, Hungerbühler K. 2016. Recommendations for evaluating temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in breast milk. Environ Health Perspect 124:881–885; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510219

The incentives created by a harm reduction approach to smoking cessation: Snus and smoking in Sweden and Finland

BackgroundTobacco harm reduction involves advocating the use of a less harmful alternative to smoking for those users who are unwilling or unable to quit. The net effect of such an approach is unclear as it may create opposing incentives. Although some smokers may substitute toward this less harmful alternative, it may reduce the incentive to quit by undermining public health efforts and may act as a gateway to smoking. This research paper aims to answer the question: Does the availability of a less harmful alternative to smoking lead to cessation? To explore the opposing incentives created by a harm reduction approach to smoking cessation, I focus on the role of snus, a popular smokeless tobacco product in Scandinavia that is widely used in Sweden. MethodsThis paper exploits a quasi-natural experiment to examine the net effect resulting from these opposing incentives. While two Scandinavian countries, Sweden and Finland, joined the European Union (EU) in 1995, Finland was subject to a pre-existing EU ban on oral tobacco products while Sweden received an exemption. A difference in differences framework is used to estimate the change in the smoking rate in Finland due to the implementation of the ban. A secondary analysis uses Finnish smoking data to test for a structural break in trend. ResultsIn the post-ban period, smoking was 3.47 percentage points higher in Finland relative to what it would have been in the absence of the ban. ConclusionThe availability of snus, a less harmful alternative to smoking, appears to have had a positive impact (reduction) on the smoking rate. Offering acceptable alternatives to cigarettes is critical in reducing smoking prevalence.