The Impact of Banning Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems on Combustible Cigarette Sales: Evidence From US State-Level Policies

Abstract

ObjectivesIn the fall of 2019, several states in the United States passed emergency bans on the sale of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), in response to an outbreak of illnesses strongly linked to tetrahydrocannabinol vaping products that received national news coverage. Given that ENDS are potential alternative nicotine products for adult smokers, banning ENDS may have unintended consequences. This study provides evidence of an association between state-level ENDS bans and cigarette sales. MethodsWe used difference-in-differences and generalized synthetic control methods to estimate the impacts of the emergency ENDS bans on cigarette sales by comparing treatment states that passed ENDS bans in fall 2019 (Massachusetts, Washington, and Rhode Island), halted states that revoked the announced ENDS bans, and control states. ResultsOur results show that cigarette sales in ban states were higher than would have been observed otherwise in the post-ban period. A full ban on ENDS was associated with increased cigarette sales of 7.5% in Massachusetts (P < .01); banning non-tobacco flavored ENDS was associated with 4.6% (P < .1) higher-than-expected cigarette sales. We did not detect statistically significant impacts in halted states, and placebo tests, which randomly assigned control states as treatments, showed no difference in observed cigarette sales in the same period. ConclusionsThis study provides evidence that banning ENDS is associated with increased cigarette sales. Future research is needed to determine the long-term impact of these policies.