Possible Predictors Of Mortality Research Articles

What is new in pediatric ECMO? 2016, a year in review.

With the increasing use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in children come increasing publications concerning pediatric ECMO. In 2016 important work was done in identifying modifiable risk-factors and possible predictors of mortality in cardiac and respiratory ECMO and risk-estimation scores have been developed for respiratory ECMO patients. Also, increasing important experience is published in the areas of neurodevelopmental follow-up of ECMO survivors. The most relevant publications of 2016 are summarized in this review.

Interval Breast Cancer Versus Screen-Detected Cancer: Comparison of Clinicopathologic Characteristics in a Single-Center Analysis

BackgroundThe introduction of breast screening programs has raised the problem of interval breast cancers (IBC). The aims of this study were to analyze the impact of IBC on the screening program, to compare IBC and screen-detected cancers (SDC), and to identify possible predictors of mortality. Patients and MethodsPatients with breast cancer diagnosed during the regional breast screening program between January 2008 and December 2013 at a single center in Italy were included. Demographic, preoperative, and postoperative data were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed. ResultsFive hundred thirty-four patients were enrolled; 106 women (19.9%) had IBC and 428 women (80.1%) SDC. IBC presented more aggressive features compared to SDC, such as tumor invasiveness (95% vs. 85%; P = .005), tumor size (≥ pT2 37% vs. 21%; P = .001), grade (G3 39% vs. 17%; P < .001), and St Gallen molecular subtype (triple negative 22% vs. 7%; P < .001), resulting in higher distant recurrence rate (8% vs. 2%; P = .009) and worse overall and disease-free survival (P = .03 and P = .001, respectively). Cox multivariate regression analysis identified St Gallen molecular subtype as the only predictor of mortality in patients with breast cancer (P = .03). ConclusionIBC accounted for one-fifth of all breast cancers diagnosed in women who followed the regional screening program. Furthermore, IBC appeared to have more aggressive features compared to SDC, leading to worse survival. These worse survivals depended on St Gallen molecular subtype.

Natural history of severe aortic stenosis: Diastolic wall strain as a novel prognostic marker.

Diastolic wall strain (DWS) has been proposed as a simple noninvasive measure of left ventricular (LV) stiffness. This study investigated DWS as a possible predictor of mortality in severe aortic stenosis (AS). 138 patients with severe AS (indexed aortic valve area [AVA]<0.6cm2 /m2 ) and normal ejection fraction (>55%) were included. 52 patients (38%) had aortic valve interventions or poor image quality (n=5) and were excluded leaving 86 in the study group (84±8years, 70% female, 69% African American). DWS was defined as (LVPWs-LVPWd)/LVPWs where LVPWs=left ventricular posterior wall thickness in systole and LVPWd=left ventricular wall thickness in diastole. Follow-up extended 2.0±1.9years (median 1.6years). Mean DWS for the group was 0.21±0.11 (normal=0.4±0.07). In patients who died, DWS was significantly lower than in survivors (0.18±0.09 vs 0.24±0.11, P=.02). By contrast, traditional measures of diastolic dysfunction did not predict death. Regression analysis showed DWS predicted death even after adjusting for age, sex, race, indexed AVA, symptoms (angina, shortness of breath, dizziness, syncope), and clinical factors (creatinine, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia) (HR 2.5 [95% CI 1.02-5.90], P<.05). The best cutoff value for DWS of 0.25 had a sensitivity of 42% and specificity of 83% for predicting death. DWS is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with severe AS, even after accounting for traditional clinical and echocardiographic parameters.

Acute Traumatic Quadriplegia in Adults: Predictors of Acute in-Hospital Mortality.

To assess the in-hospital mortality rate in adult patients suffering acute traumatic complete quadriplegia and determine the possible predictors of mortality in these patients. A review of all complete quadriplegics treated from January 1996 through March 2004 in a regional spine injuries unit measuring in-hospital mortality and other factors that might contribute to increased mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to explore these possible predictors of mortality. We identified 126 cases of cervical spinal cord injury treated at our hospital from January 1996 to March 2004 and identified only 62 cases of complete quadriplegia. Of 62 patients, 11 (17.7%) died in the hospital. Age, gender, injury mechanism and medical co-morbidity showed only trends towards a higher mortality. Age and pre-injury medical co-morbidity were found to be significant independent predicting factors for mortality. Gender, mechanism of injury, neurological level and injury severity score were not the predictors of mortality in these patients. Despite the limitations of the current evidence, advanced age and pre-existing medical co-morbidity are likely predictors of hospital mortality in the traumatic quadriplegia population.

The determinants of mortality and morbidity during the year following fracture of the hip: a prospective study.

Several studies have reported the rate of post-operative mortality after the surgical treatment of a fracture of the hip, but few data are available regarding the delayed morbidity. In this prospective study, we identified 568 patients who underwent surgery for a fracture of the hip and who were followed for one year. Multivariate analysis was carried out to identify possible predictors of mortality and morbidity. The 30-day, four-month and one-year rates of mortality were 4.3%, 11.4%, and 18.8%, respectively. General complications and pre-operative comorbidities represented the basic predictors of mortality at any time interval (p < 0.01). In-hospital, four-month and one-year general complications occurred in 29.4%, 18.6% and 6.7% of patients, respectively. After adjusting for confounding variables, comorbidities and poor cognitive status determined the likelihood of early and delayed general complications, respectively (p < 0.001). Operative delay was the main predictor of the length of hospital stay (p < 0.001) and was directly related to in-hospital (p = 0.017) and four-month complications (p = 0.008).

Clinical features and outcome of super-refractory status epilepticus: A retrospective analysis in West China

PurposeData about super-refractory status epilepticus (SRSE) are scarce. This study aimed to assess the clinical features and outcome of patients with SRSE. MethodClinical features of all SRSE patients admitted to the Neurologic Intensive Care Unit (NICU)/Neurology Department of West China Hospital, Sichuan University, between January 2010 and August 2013, were retrospectively analyzed. Outcome at discharge, at the three-month and long-term follow-ups were evaluated using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS). Possible predictors of mortality and outcome were also evaluated. ResultsThirteen patients with SRSE were included. Young patients with encephalitis accounted for the majority of the series (61.5%). In-hospital mortality was 15.4% (2/13), and the three-month mortality was 36.4% (4/11; two patients ceasing therapy were excluded). At the long-term follow-up, 18.2% of patients improved and 45.5% of patients recovered. Patients of older age and those with multiple complications had higher mortality compared with those of younger age and those with fewer complications. For survivors, functional outcome had significantly improved at three-month follow-up (GOS score=4.1±1.2) compared to that at discharge (GOS score=3.1±1.2, P<0.05). Long duration of anesthesia, etiology of encephalitis and positive neuroimaging findings tended to be associated with poor functional outcome. ConclusionWe conclude that the typical patient susceptible to development of SRSE in West China is a young patient with encephalitis. Older age and multiple complications increase the risk of death. Most patients can survive with aggressive therapy, and their functional outcome improves over time.

Long-term mortality rate in rheumatoid arthritis patients with disease onset in the 1980s

Objective: To investigate the mortality rate and possible early predictive factors of mortality after 19–23 years in a cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) followed prospectively from disease onset.Patients and methods: A community-based cohort of 183 patients (63% female) with RA and disease duration < 2 years was recruited 1985–1989. The patients were followed yearly from diagnosis until death or 31 December 2008. Mean age and mean duration of symptoms (range) at diagnosis were 52 (18–78) years and 11 (0–24) months, respectively. Death certificates were obtained from the Swedish Cause of Death Register and causes of death were coded by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Death rates of RA patients were compared to those of age- and sex-matched controls. Possible predictors of mortality were analysed using a Cox regression model.Results: By 31 December 2008, 69 patients (37 women and 32 men) had died. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97–1.55] and p < 0.09. Older age, male sex, smoking, and the presence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at RA diagnosis were identified as early predictors of mortality. CVD was the most common cause of death (46%), followed by malignancies (29%) and infections (13%). RA was not stated as the direct cause of death in any patient and was mentioned among underlying causes in only 16/69 (23%) patients.Conclusion: Mortality rate after 19–23 years of disease duration in this cohort of patients with disease onset in the 1980s was not significantly increased compared to age- and sex-matched controls. No RA disease-related factor predicted mortality.

The diagnostic and prognostic significance of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever

Background Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a potentially fatal disease caused by a tick-borne virus from the Bunyaviridae family. It has recently been reported that soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), secreted from endothelial cells and the mononuclear phagocyte system, one of the main targets of the CCHF virus, is a potential biomarker for several bacterial and viral infection diseases. Objectives This study was intended to determine the diagnostic and prognostic significance of suPAR levels in CCHF. Study design This retrospective study was conducted between June 2006 and August 2009 using plasma from patients monitored with a diagnosis of CCHF and from healthy blood donors. Levels of plasma suPAR were determined using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit according to the manufacturer's instructions. Results One hundred CCHF patients were enrolled in the study. The control group was made up of 53 healthy blood donors. suPAR values of 6.2 ± 4.2 were determined in the CCHF patients and of 2.3 ± 0.6 in the control group ( p < 0.0001). A suPAR level optimum diagnostic cut-off point of 3.06 ng/mL was determined, with an area underneath the ROC (AUROC) curve of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89–0.97), sensitivity of 87% (95% CI: 79–93%), specificity of 92% (95% CI: 82–98%), PPV of 95% and NPV of 79%. Five of the patients died. suPAR was 18.4 ± 9.1 in the patients that died and 5.6 ± 2.6 in the survivors ( p = 0.034). In terms of mortality, suPAR level had an optimum diagnostic cut-off point of 10.6 ng/mL, AUROC of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94–0.99), sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 48–100%), specificity of 96% (95% CI: 90–99%), PPV of 50% and NPV of 100%. Conclusions Plasma suPAR level, a new biomarker, is a test that can be used in the differential diagnosis and monitoring of CCHF in patients admitted to hospital with suspected infection. The test is at the same time important in being a possible predictor of mortality.

Predictors of mortality of patients newly diagnosed with clinical type 2 diabetes: a 5-year follow up study

BackgroundAt diabetes diagnosis major decisions about life-style changes and treatments are made based on characteristics measured shortly after diagnosis. The predictive value for mortality of these early characteristics is widely unknown. We examined the predictive value of patient characteristics measured shortly after diabetes diagnosis for 5-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality with special reference to self-rated general health.MethodsData were from a population-based sample of 1,323 persons newly diagnosed with clinical diabetes and aged 40 years or over. Possible predictors of mortality were investigated in Cox regression models.ResultsMultivariately patients who rated their health less than excellent experienced increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. These end-points also increased with sedentary life-style, relatively young age at diagnosis and presence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at diagnosis. Further predictors of all-cause mortality were male sex, low body mass index and cancer, while cardiovascular mortality increased with urinary albumin concentration.ConclusionsWe found that patients who rated their health as less than excellent had increased 5-year mortality, similar to that of patients with prevalent CVD, even when biochemical, clinical and life-style variables were controlled for. This finding could motivate doctors to discuss perceptions of health with newly diagnosed diabetic patients and be attentive to patients with suboptimal health ratings. Our findings also confirm that life-style changes and optimizing treatment are particularly relevant for relatively young and inactive patients and those who already have CVD or (micro)albuminuria at the time of diabetes diagnosis.

Mid-term outcome of endovascular revascularization for chronic mesenteric ischaemia

: This study aimed to assess mid-term outcome after endovascular revascularization of chronic occlusive mesenteric ischaemia (CMI) and to identify possible predictors of mortality. : Consecutive patients undergoing primary elective stenting for CMI between 1995 and 2007 were registered prospectively in a database. Patients with acute ischaemia were excluded. Retrospective case-note review and data analysis were performed. : Forty-three patients (10 men) were treated for stable (n = 30) or exacerbated (n = 13) CMI. Their median (interquartile range (i.q.r.)) age was 70 (60-79) years. Revascularization was successful in 47 of 49 vessels. The superior mesenteric artery (SMA), either alone (n = 34) or in combination with the coeliac trunk (n = 6), was the predominant target vessel. No patient died within 30 days. Median follow-up was 43 (i.q.r. 25-63) months and the estimated (s.e.) 3-year overall survival rate was 76(7) per cent. Two patients died from distal SMA occlusive disease and intestinal infarction after 6 and 18 months respectively. Previous stroke (P = 0.016), male sex (P = 0.057) and age (P = 0.066) were associated with mid-term mortality on univariable, but not multivariable analysis. Reintervention was needed in 14 patients, achieving a 3-year cumulative rate of freedom from recurrent symptoms of 88(5) per cent. : Endovascular treatment provided high early and mid-term survival rates in this series of patients with CMI, with low complication rates.

Executive function (capacity for behavioral self-regulation) and decline predicted mortality in a longitudinal study in Southern Colorado

Objective To assess the relationship between mortality and impairment and decline in a specific executive cognitive function, the capacity for behavioral self-regulation. Study Design and Setting This study examined the association between mortality and baseline and 22-month decline in the capacity for behavioral self-regulation, as measured by the Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale, among 1,293 participants of the San Luis Valley Health and Aging Study (SLVHAS), a population-based longitudinal study. The Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale and a measure of overall mental status, the Mini-Mental State Examination, were administered at baseline and follow-up interviews. Cox regression was used to examine baseline and decline in capacity for behavioral self-regulation as possible predictors of mortality. Results Baseline Behavioral Dyscontrol Scale score was predictive of mortality, independent of demographics and comorbidity count (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04, 1.09). It remained a significant predictor with further adjustment for Mini-Mental State Examination score. Decline in this specific executive cognitive function was associated with mortality after adjustment for covariates and baseline cognitive scores (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.13). Conclusion Thus, both baseline capacity for behavioral self-regulation and its decline over time predicted mortality in the SLVHAS cohort. These associations may partly be attributed to maintaining the ability for self-care. Understanding how specific forms of impairment contribute to mortality may help identify patients who could benefit from early intervention.

Predictors of mortality in critically multiple trauma patients after damage control surgery

To investigate the efficiency of damage control surgery (DCS) and predictors of mortality in critically multiple trauma patients. From May 1998 to February 2007, DCS were carried out in 27 patients with critically multiple trauma. Of the patients 15 cases survived (survival group) and 12 cases died (dead group). The surgical complications, causes of death, demographic, physiologic and medical parameters were collected and compared between the two groups. Multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify possible predictors of mortality. The incidence of surgical complications was 37.0 percent, and the intra-abdominal infections was the most frequent (18.5%). The overall mortality rate was 44.4 percent. The most common causes of death was multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (50.0%). With respect to predicting mortality, statistically significant differences was found in parameters as age, injury severity score (ISS), initial temperature and base excess (BE), estimated blood loss, initial ICU temperature and length of hospital stay. Older age, increased absolute value of initial BE and lower initial ICU temperature were determined as independent predictors of mortality on multiple logistic regression analysis. There is a comparable high morbidity and mortality rate in severely injured patients managed with DCS. Increased age, a larger absolute value of initial BE and lower initial ICU temperature could independently predict death of the patients.

Hemodynamic variables and clinical features correlated with serum uric acid in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension

Serum uric acid (UA), the final product of purine degradation, has been proposed to be a marker for the severity and a possible predictor of mortality in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The objectives of this study were to elucidate whether serum UA level correlates with the clinical features and the hemodynamic variables in Chinese patients with PAH and to compare the difference of the correlates in patients associated with different etiologies. Serum UA was assessed in 228 patients with three types of PAH (idiopathic PAH (IPAH), congenital heart disease related PAH (CHD-PAH) and connective tissue disease related PAH (CTD-PAH)) together with other clinical features. After the individualized treatment for at least 6 months, the UA levels and clinical features were re-evaluated in 88 patients. Serum UA was significantly elevated in patients with PAH compared with age-matched control subjects ((350.40 +/- 108.73) micromol/L vs (266.91 +/- 81.38) micromol/L), P < 0.001). Serum UA negatively correlated with cardiac output and mixed venous saturation (SvO(2)) in all three types of PAH (all P < 0.05), positively correlated with the size of right ventricle in IPAH (P = 0.002) and CTD-PAH (P = 0.013) patients and with pulmonary vascular resistance just in CTD-PAH patients (P = 0.001). Serum UA significantly decreased from (365.80 +/- 120.46) micromol/L to (333.67 +/- 117.56) micromol/L in 88 patients (P = 0.006) with vasodilator therapy for at least 6 months, accompanied with a reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance from (15.13 +/- 6.96) Woods unit to (12.00 +/- 5.04) Woods unit (P = 0.001) and an increase in cardiac output from (2.63 +/- 0.98) L/min to (3.08 +/- 1.04) L/min (P = 0.005). Serum UA increases in proportion to the clinical severity of all the three types of PAH, especially the CTD-PAH had a stronger correlations compared with IPAH and CHD-PAH. The serum UA levels also could partly reflect the response to the treatment in patients with PAH.

Comorbidity is poor predictor of survival in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy after 70 years of age

Objectives To investigate several comorbidity classifications as possible predictors of mortality, because the value of comorbidity as a prognostic factor is uncertain in patients older than 70 years of age and radical prostatectomy in patients older than 70 years is controversial. Methods A total of 214 consecutive patients aged 70 years or older who underwent radical prostatectomy from December 1992 to December 2002 were stratified according to the Charlson score, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification, New York Heart Association classification of cardiac insufficiency, classification of angina pectoris from the Canadian Cardiovascular Society, and age (70 to 72 versus 73 to 74 versus 75 years or older). The mean follow-up in the surviving patients was 5.1 years (range 1.3 to 12.5). A sample of 240 consecutive patients aged 67.0 to 69.9 years treated during the same period was used for comparison. The overall and comorbid mortality were the study endpoints. Mantel-Haenszel hazard ratios were calculated. Comparisons were made using the log-rank test. Results Unlike for patients aged 67.0 to 69.9 years, for those 70 years old or older, only one of the investigated stratifications reached significance as a predictor of mortality. A New York Heart Association classification of 2+ versus 0 was significant for overall mortality (hazard ratio 5.8, P = 0.021) and comorbid mortality (hazard ratio 15.9, P = 0.046). Conclusions Comorbidity is of limited prognostic value in patients selected for radical prostatectomy and 70 years old or older.

Predictors of mortality in patients with Eisenmenger syndrome and admission to the lung transplantation waiting list

Patients with Eisenmenger Syndrome (ES) have very severe irreversible pulmonary hypertension but the criteria for admitting such patients to a lung transplantation waiting list (LTWL) is not clear. Indeed it has been demonstrated that the natural survival of patients with ES is better than the survival achieved through lung transplantation: it follows that no guidelines are available for these patients' admission to an LTWL. The aim of our study was to identify possible predictors of mortality in ES patients in order to reserve admission to the LTWL solely for those patients who would otherwise have the lowest probability of survival. Since 1991, 57 patients with ES from our rehabilitative centre were admitted to the LTWL of the Division of Cardiac Surgery at San Matteo Hospital, University of Pavia. At the time of the retrospective analysis, patients were divided into a group of non-transplanted survivors (27 patients--47% of the total) and a group who had died prior to transplantation (16 patients--28% of the total). The 14 transplanted patients (25% of the total) were not considered in the statistical analysis, considering transplantation as an "external event". Unpaired t tests were used to compare the following factors in the survivors and in those who died: sex, "complexity" of the congenital heart disease underlying the ES, previous cardiac surgery, arterial blood gases, pulmonary function and hemodynamic parameters. Moreover, a stepwise discriminant analysis was performed in order to define a possible set of prognostic factors. PaCO2 was higher in those who subsequently died (36.15 +/- 7.42 mmHg) compared with those who survived (32.5 +/- 5.33 mmHg), although this difference did not reach a statistical significance (p = 0.08). Discriminant analysis defined a model in which (a) complexity of the congenital heart disease, (b) sex (male) and (c) cardiac output were predictive of a higher risk of mortality. This new knowledge can be used in the decision of admission to LTWL in ES patients.

Prognostic determinants of long-term survival in Japanese patients with cardiac sarcoidosis treated with prednisone

Cardiac involvement is an important prognostic factor in sarcoidosis, but reliable indicators of mortality risk in cardiac sarcoidosis are unstudied in a large number of patients. To determine the significant predictors of mortality and to assess the efficacy of corticosteroids, we analyzed clinical findings, treatment, and prognosis in 95 Japanese patients with cardiac sarcoidosis. Twenty of these 95 patients had cardiac sarcoidosis proven by autopsy; none of these patients had received corticosteroids. We assessed 12 clinical variables as possible predictors of mortality by Cox proportional hazards model in 75 steroid-treated patients. During the mean follow-up of 68 months, 29 patients (73%) died of congestive heart failure and 11 (27%) experienced sudden death. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed 5-year survival rates of 75% in the steroid-treated patients and of 89% in patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%, whereas there was only 10% 5-year survival rate in autopsy subjects. There was no significant difference in survival curves of patients treated with a high initial dose (>30 mg) and a low initial dose (≥30 mg) of prednisone. Multivariate analysis identified New York Heart Association functional class (hazard ratio 7.72 per class I increase, p = 0.0008), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (hazard ratio 2.60/10 mm increase, p = 0.02), and sustained ventricular tachycardia (hazard ratio 7.20, p = 0.03) as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the severity of heart failure was one of the most significant independent predictors of mortality for cardiac sarcoidosis. Starting corticosteroids before the occurrence of systolic dysfunction resulted in an excellent clinical outcome. A high initial dose of prednisone may not be essential for treatment of cardiac sarcoidosis.

The certification status of generalist physicians and the mortality of their patients after acute myocardial infarction.

The certification status of generalist physicians and the mortality of their patients after acute myocardial infarction.

Serum uric acid levels correlate with the severity and the mortality of primary pulmonary hypertension.

Serum uric acid (UA), the final product of purine degradation, has been proposed to be a marker for impaired oxidative metabolism and a possible predictor of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure. To elucidate whether serum UA correlates with the severity and the mortality of primary pulmonary hypertension (PPH), serum UA was assessed in 90 patients with PPH together with other clinical variables. Right heart catheterization was performed in all patients. Serum UA was significantly elevated in patients with PPH compared with age-matched control subjects (7.5 +/- 2.5 versus 4.9 +/- 1.2 mg/ml, p < 0.001). Serum UA negatively correlated with cardiac output (r = -0.52, p < 0.001) and positively correlated with total pulmonary resistance (r = 0.57, p < 0.001). Serum UA significantly decreased from 7.1 +/- 1.9 to 5.9 +/- 1.6 mg/dl with vasodilator therapy, associated with a reduction in total pulmonary resistance from 22 +/- 6 to 17 +/- 7 Wood units. During a mean follow-up period of 31 mo, 53 patients died of cardiopulmonary causes. Among noninvasive variables, serum UA was independently related to mortality by a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves according to the median value of serum UA demonstrated that patients with high serum UA had a significantly higher mortality rate than did those with low serum UA (log-rank test, p < 0.01). These results suggest that serum UA increases in proportion to the clinical severity of PPH and has independent association with long-term mortality of patients with PPH.

The importance of laboratory data for comparing outcomes and detecting 'outlier' wards in the treatment of patients with pneumonia.

To evaluate whether routine laboratory data can improve the ability to compare risk-adjusted outcomes of different medical wards, and to detect 'outlier' wards with significantly better or worse outcome. Patient data were taken from the Combined Patient Database Systematic Management and Research Tool, a database created by merging different computerized sources at a tertiary care hospital. All patients admitted to internal wards with the diagnosis of pneumonia during the years 1991-1995 were included (n = 2734). The outcome variable was mortality 30 days post-admission. We used three comorbidity measures based on ICD-9-CM codes as possible predictors of mortality: secondary diagnoses; the Health Care Financing Administration severity index; and the Charlson comorbidity index. Models were created using logistic regression. To each model, laboratory data gathered in the first 48 hours after admission were added. To identify 'outlier' services we determined whether the patients' ward was an independent predictor of mortality. The area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) of the models was used for comparisons. The area under the ROC was 0.65-0.72 for the models based on age and comorbid diagnoses. The addition of laboratory data improved markedly the discriminatory ability of each of the models, as reflected by an increase in the area under the ROC to 0.83-0.84. An 'outlier' ward with a higher risk-adjusted mortality rate was identified only by the models that included laboratory data. Basic, automated, routinely gathered laboratory data added significantly to the discriminatory power of risk models based on administrative data with abstracted diagnoses. Addition of laboratory data improved the ability to identify providers with possible exceptional quality of care.

Formal education and five‐year mortality in rheumatoid arthritis: Mediation by helplessness scale scores

To analyze scores on a scale designed to measure helplessness, a cognitive variable, as a possible mediator of the association between formal education level and mortality over 5 years in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A cohort of 1,416 patients with RA from 15 private practices in 6 states and Washington, DC was monitored for over 5 years. Demographic, socioeconomic, therapy, functional status, and psychological variables were analyzed as possible predictors of mortality in invariable and multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards models. In a 5-year followup, 1,384 patients were accounted for (97.3%), including 174 who died versus 111 expected (standardized mortality ratio = 1.54). Higher mortality was associated significantly with low formal education, high age, poor scores for activities of daily living (ADL) on a modified health assessment questionnaire (MHAQ), and poor scores on a helplessness scale (all P < 0.01) in univariable analyses. High age, few years of formal education, and poor MHAQ ADL scores were all significant independent predictors of mortality when analyzed simultaneously in a Cox Proportional Hazards model. When helplessness scale scores were included in a model, scores greater than 2.4 (on a scale of 1 to 4), higher age, male gender, and increased MHAQ ADL difficulty scores were all independently significantly predictive of 5-year mortality (P < 0.05), while years of education was no longer a significant predictor. Scores on a helplessness scale appear to mediate a component of the association between formal education level and 5-year mortality in these patients with RA. Health professionals and policy makers might consider interventions directed at modification of helplessness as adjunctive to standard interventions to improve outcomes in RA.