Possible Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

High Resolution of Water Availability for Emilia-Romagna Region over 1961–2015

In this study, monthly time series of precipitations and temperatures from 1024 controlled and homogeneous meteorological stations located in the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) are processed in order to assess potential climate changes that occurred during the period 1961–2015. Normal period as baseline between 1961 and 1990 (1990s) and recent period between 1991 and 2015 (2010s) were adopted in this study to analyse the possible effect of climate change on water availability during long-term period. Based on monthly and annual temperature (TT), precipitation (PP), and potential (ET0), the actual evapotranspiration (AET0) and water availability (WA) were computed at high spatial resolution. Between the two analysed periods, during the 2010s, it was found an increase in the maximum mean annual temperature by 1.08°C while the maximum mean annual precipitation saw a slight decrease (from 2222 mm to 2086 mm). The precipitation decrease is more intense in the South and West sectors of area (8%) and mainly depends on negative changes taking place during the winter and the beginning of spring (from December to March). The maximum mean annual ET0 and AET0 reached values of 663 mm and 565 mm during the 1990s, while during the 2010s, the found values were 668 mm and 572 mm, respectively. Because of the decrease in precipitation and increase in the ET0 and AET0, the WA (the proportion of precipitation that is available at the soil surface for subsequent infiltration and runoff processes) shows a reduction (about 10–20%) in the whole region, with exception of the North-East part of the Emilia-Romagna region. The decrease in the mean annual water availability induces severe issues concerning the water resources management across the whole Emilia-Romagna region.

Sub-lethal UV radiation during early life stages alters the behaviour, heart rate and oxidative stress parameters in zebrafish (Danio rerio)

Environmental UV radiation in sufficient doses, as a possible consequence of climate change, is potent enough to affect living organisms with different outcomes, depending on the exposure life stage. The aim of this project was to evaluate the potentially toxic effects of exposure to sub-lethal and environmentally relevant doses of UVA (9.4, 18. 7, 37.7 J/cm2) and UVB radiation (0.013, 0.025, 0.076 J/cm2) on the development and behaviour in early life stages (4.5–5.5 h post fertilization, hpf) of the zebrafish (Danio rerio). The used doses were all below the median lethal dose (LD50) and caused no significant difference in survival, deformities, or hatching between exposed and control groups. Compared to controls, there were transient UVA and UVB exposure effects on heart rate, with dose dependent reductions at 50 hpf, and at 60 hpf for UVA only. The UVB exposure caused an increasing trend in reactive oxygen species (ROS) formation at the two highest doses, even though only significant at 120 hpf for the second highest dose. Both UVA and UVB caused an increasing trend in lipid peroxidation (LPO) at the highest doses tested at 72 hpf. Furthermore, UVA exposure led to significant reductions in larval movement following exposure to the two highest doses of UVA, i.e., reduction in the time spent active and the total distance moved compared to control at 100 hpf, while no effect on the swimming speed was observed. The lowest dose of UVA had no effect on behaviour. In contrast, the highest dose of UVB led to a possible increase in the time spent active and a slower average swimming speed although these effects were not significant (p = 0.07). The obtained results show that UV doses below LD50 levels are able to cause changes in the behaviour and physiological parameters of zebrafish larvae, as well as oxidative stress in the form of ROS formation and LPO. Further testing is necessary to assess how this type of radiation and the effects observed could affect fish population dynamics.

Effects of macroalgae loss in an Antarctic marine food web: applying extinction thresholds to food web studies.

Antarctica is seriously affected by climate change, particularly at the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) where a rapid regional warming is observed. Potter Cove is a WAP fjord at Shetland Islands that constitutes a biodiversity hotspot where over the last years, Potter Cove annual air temperatures averages increased by 0.66 °C, coastal glaciers declined, and suspended particulate matter increased due to ice melting. Macroalgae are the main energy source for all consumers and detritivores of Potter Cove. Some effects of climate change favor pioneer macroalgae species that exploit new ice-free areas and can also decline rates of photosynthesis and intensify competition between species due to the increase of suspended particulate matter. In this study, we evaluated possible consequences of climate change at Potter Cove food web by simulating the extinction of macroalgae and detritus using a topological approach with thresholds of extinction. Thresholds represent the minimum number of incoming links necessary for species’ survival. When we simulated the extinctions of macroalgae species at random, a threshold of extinction beyond 50% was necessary to obtain a significant number of secondary extinctions, while with a 75% threshold a real collapse of the food web occurred. Our results indicate that Potter Cove food web is relative robust to macroalgae extinction. This is dramatically different from what has been found in other food webs, where the reduction of 10% in prey intake caused a disproportionate increase of secondary extinctions. Robustness of the Potter Cove food web was mediated by omnivory and redundancy, which had an important relevance in this food web. When we eliminated larger-biomass species more secondary extinctions occurred, a similar response was observed when more connected species were deleted, yet there was no correlation between species of larger-biomass and high-degree. This similarity could be explained because both criteria involved key species that produced an emerging effect on the food web. In this way, large-biomass and high-degree species could be acting as source for species with few trophic interactions or low redundancy. Based on this work, we expect the Potter Cove food web to be robust to changes in macroalgae species caused by climate change until a high threshold of stress is reached, and then negative effects are expected to spread through the entire food web leading to its collapse.

Analysis of Changes in the Natural and Climatic Conditions of the Functioning of the Construction Industry (Operation of Buildings and Structures) in the Region

The manifestations of climatic changes on the territory of the south of the European part of Russia are considered. The estimates for the changes in the seasonal and annual average, maximum and minimum air temperatures, in the seasonal and annual sum of precipitation, daily maximum precipitation as well as the dynamics of the number of their extreme values ​​in different climatic zones of southern Russia and in different seasons are obtained. Possible effects of climate change on the functioning of the construction industry in different climatic zones of the region are considered.

Bologna resilient city: from the adaptation plan to local actions

The possible effects of climate change in urbanized areas – evidenced by several studies – led the City of Bologna to adopt a Climate Change Adaptation Plan to assess potential risks and vulnerabilities as a basis for adaptation actions prioritizing interventions through a coordinated local strategy. This paper summarizes some measures implemented at local level in collaboration with the Department of Architecture of the University of Bologna and, in particular, the pilot actions for urban greening developed within the European project H2020 - ROCK and the proposals for intervention included made during the “Design for Adaptation” project. Resilient Urban Communities” PhD Climate KIC summer school.

Modelling the long-term effect of climate change on a zero energy and carbon dioxide building through energy efficiency and renewables

Over the last few years, studies have predicted an increase in the overall air temperature due to climate change. Today's society is already sensing this change, which could have a negative impact on the environment and efforts are being made to seek all possible measures to curb it. One of the consequences of this temperature rise would be its effect on indoor comfort within buildings, which may cause higher energy consumption and operational costs, while reducing the useful lifetime of air-conditioning equipment. In this paper, an existing zero energy building (ZEB) is being studied to understand the possible effects of climate change on its zero energy status. The building is also a zero carbon building because all of its generated energies come from renewable sources (biomass, geothermal and solar photovoltaic systems). The building LUCIA has the highest innovative technologies in energy systems, design and construction elements and is currently considered as one of the top three buildings with the highest LEED certification in the world. According to current European regulations, buildings will tend to become self-sufficient in terms of energy after 2020, and therefore this study will help us to understand the changes in energy consumption within a long-term timeframe, for such zero-energy buildings. With the aid of the Design Builder version 5 software and its EnergyPlus building energy engine, a building model is simulated and energy consumption is analyzed for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 timeframe. The climatic conditions pertain to the city of Valladolid, Spain, which has a continental climate, while the expected changes in climatic conditions have been produced through the methodology developed by the University of Southampton, called CCworldweathergen.Results have shown that the cooling demand would significantly increase for the years 2050 and 2080, while space heating would drop. This will increase the overall demand for burning more biofuels to cover the added demand in absorption cooling systems. Moreover, the previously excess generated electricity of the building by photovoltaics would then be totally consumed within the building due to increased demand. This implies that the installed systems will operate for longer hours, which will increase maintenance and replacement costs. As a result of this study, it becomes possible to quantify the expected changes in energy consumption and prepare preventive actions to anticipate this change, while improving the management and control of both the energy systems and the building.

Impact of Climate Change on Vibrio vulnificus Abundance and Exposure Risk.

Vibrio species are marine bacteria that occur in estuaries worldwide; many are virulent human pathogens with high levels of antibiotic resistance. The average annual incidence of all Vibrio infections has increased by 41% between 1996 and 2005. V. vulnificus (Vv), a species associated with shellfish and occurring in the US Southeast, has ranges of temperature (16-33 °C) and salinity (5-20 ppt) dependencies for optimal growth. Increased water temperatures caused by atmospheric warming and increased salinity gradients caused by sea level rise raise concerns for the effect of climate change on the geographic range of Vv and the potential for increased exposure risk. This research combined monthly field sampling, laboratory analysis, and modeling to identify the current occurrence of Vv in the Winyah Bay estuary (South Carolina, USA) and assess the possible effects of climate change on future geographic range and exposure risk in the estuary. Vv concentrations ranged from 0 to 58 colony forming units (CFU)/mL, salinities ranged from 0 to 28 ppt, and temperature from 18 to 31 °C. A significant empirical relationship was found between Vv concentration and salinity and temperature that fit well with published optimal ranges for growth for these environmental parameters. These results, when coupled with an existing model of future specific conductance, indicated that sea level rise has a greater impact on exposure risk than temperature increases in the estuary. Risk increased by as much as four times compared to current conditions with the largest temporally widespread increase at the most upriver site where currently there is minimal risk.

Features of herpetofauna dynamics in the Nature Reserve «Dniprovsko-Orilsky» under conditions of climate change

The Nature Reserve «Dniprovsky-Orilsky» occupies unique ecosystems of the floodplain of the middle part of the Dnieper River, where the medium-flooded forests (black poplar and willow forests, elm-Tatarian maple oakeries, and pine forests at the sandy second terrace) predominate. Marshy, wet and dry meadows, sandy steppes, salt marshes, floodplain lakes and isles support the diversity of habitats. Reptiles, like ectothermic organisms, are known to be sensitive to temperature and humidity, which are directly influenced by climate change. Due to the variety of species and their habitats’ conditions, it is important to study the possible effects of climate change on each species and each place of their residence separately. Studies in more or less natural conditions of the Reserve allow minimizing the impact of the anthropogenic factors on the number and diversity of species. To produce accurate inventories we use the method of linear transects created at survey sites modified by Dinesman and Kaletskaya (1952) with a width of transects up to 3 meters. The length of the survey route depended on the availability for an accountant, but was not less than 1.0 km in all cases. The surveys were conducted during the period of maximum daily activity of reptiles in the spring-summer period on specified routes. The density of reptiles was described as the number of individuals per hectare of an averaged ecosystem. In aquatic and wetland ecosystems, the population density of European pond turtle and dice snake were determined as a number of specimens per 1 km of the waterbody’s bankline. During almost 30 years of observation, eight reptile species have been registered on the territory of the Dniprovsky-Orilsky Nature Reserve, among which three species (Coronella austriaca, Natrix tessellata and Dolichophis caspius) have been recorded in the last decade. In recent years (since 1972), the average increase in the temperature of the surface air layer in Ukraine was more than 1 °С. In winter, in the central regions of the country, the highest increase in the average monthly air temperature is observed. The excess reaches 2 °C and more. Climatic changes can be the reason for the invasion and the number growth of the dice snake and the appearance of the Caspian whipsnake within the Reserve. In the context of general climate change, there is a tendency to reduce the population density of the pond turtle, sand lizard and grass snake. At the same time, there is a gradual increase in the number of steppe vipers. Preserving current temperature trends in the coming years can create favourable conditions for another reptile species – the blotched snake (Elaphe sauromates) – to penetrate into the Reserve, but also negatively affect the hygrophilic species. Increasing the risk of summer fires in the Nature Reserve «Dniprovsky-Orilsky» is one of the most threatening factors for the conservation of the terrestrial biota, including reptiles.

Mexican priority bamboo species under scenarios of climate change

Background: Worldwide only 45 bamboo species are considered economically important. Guadua inermis and Otatea acuminata are two bamboo species that are economically important in different areas of Mexico.Question: How climate change is affecting the distribution of these species and where are the priority areas that should be considered for conservation refuges.Studied species/ Data description: We consider Guadua inermis and Otatea acuminata , both endemic to Mexico, as potentially economic priority species. Both are used in rural communities for different purposes. Both inhabit tropical sub-deciduous, deciduous and dry oak forests, and are extracted exclusively from wild populations.Study site and years of study: Mexico and Central America. Data considered have different temporality depending on the source of collections and databases; localities were recorded until 2015.Methods: The potential geographic distributions of Guadua inermis and Otatea acuminata were modeled to investigate the possible effects of climate change under different scenarios and to identify their potential future distributions and potential plantation management.Results: Our results showed a likely reduction of the current potential distributions when both species are projected into future scenarios of climate change. G. inermis will lose between 9.5 and 42.3 % of its current distribution under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. Meanwhile, O. acuminata would lose between 14.2 and 22.3 % of its current distribution under the same climate scenarios.Conclusions: Fortunately, even with the potential loss of geographic distribution, both species are likely to remain in some suitable areas where the species will grow and could be used with appropriate management.

Evaluation of vegetation cover from IVDN vegetation indexes: possible effects of climate change at Catimbau National Park

The Catimbau National Park (Parna Catimbau) is an environmental conservation unit (CU) created by Decree Law No. 4,340, dated 08/22/2002, in accordance with Federal Law No. 9,985 (SNUC Law). This CU is characterized by being a National Archaeological Heritage by IPHAN and presenting a floristic diversity, which makes it an area of extreme biological importance. However, despite being a region defined by the Ministry of Environment as an integral protection unit, we can see in this area the presence of families and consequent anthropic activities such as agriculture, irrigated production, pastures and other agents that have been contributing to the modification of this Parna. This article aimed to map and evaluate the spectrum-temporal dynamics of the vegetation cover in the Catimbau National Park (PE) area and its possible relationships with climate change, in the period of 2003 and 2016. Remote Sensing techniques such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - IVDN, whose values vary in the range of -1 to 1, were applied to the Vegetation study assisted by Landsat 5, TM sensor and Landsat 8, OLI sensor satellite images. The software SPRING was manipulated to create a geographic database and for the development of programming aided by LEGAL in order to correct atmospheric influences, among other parameters. The responses of these analyzes and their respective problematic of the potential contributing factors indicated changes in the vegetation cover with the highest increase for the anthropic area (0.107-0.207) and Soil / Outcrop (0.207-0.307) for the year 2016. These expansions are characteristics of physical, environmental and anthropogenic factors, where they all contribute for hazardous situations in the area. These results indicate the need for social and environmental studies to support environmental management of this conservation unit of the Caatinga biome.

Possible Changes of Bioclimatic Conditions of Winter Period in Ukraine

Purpose. Assessment of bioclimatic conditions of cold season on the basis of weather severeness indices and analysis of their dynamics on the territory of Ukraine. Methods. Estimation of possible values of some cold stress indices and their changes in different regions of the country is based on two scenarios А1В and А2. Results. Possible consequences of climate change on human health in Ukraine are considered. On the base of Bodman index and wind chill factor of Siple-Passel, there are given forecast parameters of uncomfortable climate within three periods: 1986-2005, 2011-2030 and 2031-2050 years. According to both scenarios, mean values of Bodman index during the given periods on the major part of Ukraine reach to 2-3 points and this means that during certain winter months and whole winter moderate severe conditions will prevail, though in western and southern areas will dominate slightly severe ones. According to both scenarios, during December-January within first and second periods in some areas of the country even high risk of hypothermia is possible, as well as frostbite of open parts of the skin in 5-10 minutes can occur. The most severe conditions are expected in January-February in Sumy (A1B) and Lugansk (A2), the least severe – in Kropyvnytsky (A1B) and Ternopil (A2). The trend of hypothermia and frostbite conditions change during the winter season in different regions of the country has been analyzed. Conclusions. The trend of decrease of Bodman index prevails on the whole territory of the country during all winter months. Weather conditions in February are the harshest in first and third periods and weather conditions in January-February are the most severe in the second period (А1В), according to another scenario for the whole researched time the harshest conditions are observed in January. In all analyzed time periods, in December winter weather conditions were the most comfortable according to both scenarios. But mostly repeatability of wind chill factor of Siple-Passel prevailed in the interval of 0 ÷ -9 ºC, thus a slight risk of frostbite, some discomfort will be observed. So, in winter expected compounds of low air temperature and wind in certain days in future might cause frostbite of different levels, they will influence on spreading of infections epidemics and «cold» diseases.

Bat diversity in Carajás National Forest (Eastern Amazon) and potential impacts on ecosystem services under climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is one of the main current threats to biodiversity, and it has been linked to species decline. Bats deserve attention because they occupy different trophic niches and perform different functions in nature, acting as flower pollinators (nectarivores), seed dispersers (frugivores), and pest controllers (insectivores). The effects of climate change on the distribution of bat species occurring in the Carajás National Forest (Eastern Amazon, southeastern Pará state, Brazil) was examined by modeling species distributions. A total of 83 species of bats providing the above mentioned services were analyzed for the years 2050 and 2070 to answer the following two questions: (i) Which species are potentially more sensitive to climate changes and will not be able to find suitable areas in Carajás in the future, and (ii) Which are the priority areas that protect the greatest number of species from climate change. Of the total species analyzed, 47 (57%) will potentially not find suitable areas in Carajás under the scenarios employed. Pollinators, seed dispersers, and more-generalist (omnivorous) bats will potentially be the most affected, suffering a 28–36% decrease in suitable area under the 2070 scenario, which may have implications for the plants with which those species interact. According to the scenarios employed, the Carajás National Forest, as well as other conservation units in Pará, will not protect most species in the future. The most suitable areas are located mainly to the north and west of the state and under varying degrees of conservation: from well-preserved protected areas to areas degraded due to different anthropogenic impacts. This study emphasizes that the possible effect of climate change and the location of species protection areas need to be analyzed together to ensure that the areas that will act as potential climate refuges for species in the future are indeed protected.

Analysis of Climatic Trends in Evaporation for Çanakkale (Turkey)

In this study, temporal changes and trends in the series of annual, seasonal, and monthly evaporation of Canakkale station of Turkish State Meteorological Service were analyzed. Time series of evaporation data set has been organized as climatological seasons that spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November), and winter (December, January, February). Non-parametric tests and Box-Jenkins method were used to determine climatic trends. Pettitt change-point analysis was applied to determine the change point of evaporation. Trend analysis results showed that a statistically significant increasing trend occurred in evaporation. Mean annual evaporation is estimated to increase 1.4498 mm per year and it is anticipated to reach 215.3356 mm in 2022. Furthermore, mean seasonal evaporation are estimated to increase 1.2251 mm, 1.6485 mm, and 0.4117 mm per year for spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Therefore, Canakkale is thought to be affected by global warming and climate change and this effect will continue. Evaporation should be continuously measured and monitoring program should be established to allow sustainable use and management of water resources. Global or regional climate change scenarios and projections must be considered in order to moderate the possible effects of climate change and global warming on Canakkale.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and its Implications on Medicinal Plants-Based Traditional Healthcare System in Central Himalaya, India

Medicinal plant-based healthcare system practiced by the traditional herbal healers (Vaidyas) plays a significant role in curing ailments. Phenology of many medicinal plants is altered due to changes in climatic variability. Studies towards possible effects of climate change on medicinal plants are particularly significant in the traditional healthcare system. The present study emphasizes that persistence of climatic variability will change the habitat and population of medicinal plants in the Himalayan region. There are indications that climate change is causing noticeable effects on life cycle and distribution of valuable medicinal plant resources. The perception of Vaidyas about medicinal plants has been documented to understand the impact of climate change on phenophases of medicinal plants and their effect on the traditional healthcare. The study reported 15 high-value medicinal plants which are used by the local people for curing various ailments. These medicinal plants are collected by Vaidyas from wild in appropriate time for their effective results following traditional, religious, and spiritual values. However, due to changes in the phenophases of these species, Vaidyas have also slightly changed the collection period which is against their tradition. The traditional healers have identified some other plant species as substitute of those plants which were used earlier for curing the same ailments so as to cope with the changes of phenophases of medicinal plants on health care systems. The present study is an attempt to generate unique information on the impacts of climate change on phenophases of medicinal plants and their effect on existing traditional healthcare system.

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes.

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.

The lifecycle of Agrilus biguttatus: the role of temperature in its development and distribution, and implications for Acute Oak Decline

Abstract The two spotted oak buprestid, Agrilus biguttatus Fabricus, is implicated in oak decline events across Europe, and is strongly linked to Acute Oak Decline in the U.K., although its role in the syndrome remains under investigation. In the U.K., the beetle is restricted to south and central England. The present study aimed to improve our understanding of the beetle's life history and thermal requirements, intending to explain its U.K. distribution, and to collect data for lifecycle modelling. Novel methods were developed to collect and culture the beetle in the laboratory, which enabled experiments to be carried out, providing data on the beetle's sex ratio, longevity and fecundity, and the development rates of eggs, larvae and pupae at constant temperatures. On average, females lived for 63 days and laid 82 eggs. Larvae developed through four instars. Sex ratio varied by site, with no overall trend apparent. The development rates of eggs, larvae and pupae (to adult emergence) had linear relationships with temperature, with lower developmental thresholds of 12.1, 11.9 and 15.1 °C, respectively. For each life stage, degree‐day values were calculated. Beetles appeared to have an obligatory prepupal diapause at all temperatures studied, up to and including 25 °C. The implications of the developmental findings for the beetle's current distribution, as well as the possible effects of climate change, are discussed. The beetle appears to be thermally limited in the U.K. and, if so, its distribution, and perhaps that of Acute Oak Decline, may alter under climate change.

Visual art as a way to communicate climate change: a psychological perspective on climate change–related art

This article discusses the possible effects of climate change–related visual art, based on a comprehensive review of the psychological research literature. Taking a psychological perspective, potential effects of confrontation with such works of art are explored and a preliminary conceptual framework is proposed about special features of art that go beyond other means of communication. Potential barriers to change are discussed, as well as promising and often overlooked aspects that can trigger long-term changes, such as inspiration. Perceiving art demands attention, and processing art requires parts of the brain that are not normally accessed by typical communications about climate change. Art typically uses novel metaphors, analogies or narratives, which climate communication generally lacks. In addition, art can provide people with visualizations of the problem and give them a personal experience with the subject-matter, which is especially important regarding climate change as many people still see it as an abstract issue that poses no direct threat. Art may also help to establish a group identity and to give people a sense of being supported in their efforts to help combat climate change.

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

Small ocean temperature increases elicit stage-dependent changes in DNA methylation and gene expression in a fish, the European sea bass

In natural fish populations, temperature increases can result in shifts in important phenotypic traits. DNA methylation is an epigenetic mechanism mediating phenotypic changes. However, whether temperature increases of the magnitude predicted by the latest global warming models can affect DNA methylation is unknown. Here, we exposed European sea bass to moderate temperature increases in different periods within the first two months of age. We show that increases of even 2 °C in larvae significantly changed global DNA methylation and the expression of ecologically-relevant genes related to DNA methylation, stress response, muscle and organ formation, while 4 °C had no effect on juveniles. Furthermore, DNA methylation changes were more marked in larvae previously acclimated to a different temperature. The expression of most genes was also affected by temperature in the larvae but not in juveniles. In conclusion, this work constitutes the first study of DNA methylation in fish showing that temperature increases of the magnitude predicted by the latest global warming models result in stage-dependent alterations in global DNA methylation and gene expression levels. This study, therefore, provides insights on the possible consequences of climate change in fish mediated by genome-wide epigenetic modifications.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance.

There has been much debate as to whether or not climate change will have, or has had, any significant effect on risk from vector-borne diseases. The debate on the former has focused on the degree to which occurrence and levels of risk of vector-borne diseases are determined by climate-dependent or independent factors, while the debate on the latter has focused on whether changes in disease incidence are due to climate at all, and/or are attributable to recent climate change. Here I review possible effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases, methods used to predict these effects and the evidence to date of changes in vector-borne disease risks that can be attributed to recent climate change. Predictions have both over- and underestimated the effects of climate change. Mostly under-estimations of effects are due to a focus only on direct effects of climate on disease ecology while more distal effects on society's capacity to control and prevent vector-borne disease are ignored. There is increasing evidence for possible impacts of recent climate change on some vector-borne diseases but for the most part, observed data series are too short (or non-existent), and impacts of climate-independent factors too great, to confidently attribute changing risk to climate change.