Positive Net Change Research Articles

Enriching NPK Mineral Fertilizer with Plant-Stimulating Peptides Increases Soilless Tomato Production, Grower Profit, and Environmental Sustainability.

The need to increase agricultural production to feed a steadily growing population may clash with the more environmentally friendly but less efficient production methods required. Therefore, it is important to try to reduce the use of chemical inputs without compromising production. In this scenario, natural biostimulants have become one of the most sought-after and researched technologies. In the present study, the results of a greenhouse experiment on hydroponic tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum L.) are presented, which involved comparing the use of ordinary NPK fertilizer (Cerbero®) with the use of NPK fertilizers enriched with 0.5% protein hydrolysate of plant origin (Cerbero Green®) at both standard (100%) and reduced (70%) fertilization rates. The results highlight how the use of Cerbero Green® fertilizers improves the production performance of tomatoes. More specifically, they show that the use of Cerbero Green® leads to higher marketable yields, especially under reducing fertilizer use, ensuring a positive net change in profit for the grower. In addition, carbon footprint analysis has revealed that the use of Cerbero Green® reduces the environmental impact of hydroponic tomato growing practices by up to 8%. The observed higher yield of hydroponically grown tomatoes even with reduced fertilization rates underlines once again the key role of natural biostimulants in increasing both the economic and environmental sustainability of horticultural production.

Relationship between stocking rate and production of stocker hybrid tilapia and water quality in a mixtotrophic biofloc system

AbstractIntensified production of stocker‐size tilapia can be accomplished using the biofloc technology production system. Stocker‐size tilapia (ca. 10–200 g/fish) are raised for subsequent stocking for grow‐out to market size. The relationship between stocking rate and the production of stocker‐size hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis aureus × O. niloticus) was evaluated in two studies in outdoor mixotrophic biofloc tanks. Hybrid tilapia were stocked in 18.6‐m2 (15.7‐m3) tanks at 50–150 fish/m2 (59–178 fish/m3) in 25 fish/m2 (30 fish/m3) increments in Study 1 and grown for 141–143 days. Stocking rates evaluated in 4.7‐m2 (3.6‐m3) tanks during Study 2 over 78–79 days ranged from 100 to 300 fish/m2 (132–396 fish/m3) in 25 fish/m2 (33 fish/m3) increments. Linear regression models best described growth to stocker size in both studies. Fish yield increased linearly with stocking rate and ranged from 20.1 to 38.3 kg/m3. Individual weight at harvest was inversely related to stocking rate and ranged from 389.8 to 163.4 g/fish and 155.2 to 81.4 g/fish in Studies 1 and 2, respectively. Partial budget analyses suggested positive net changes in profit with incremental increases in stocking rate for producing a 75‐g stocker. Water quality concentrations were impacted directly by daily feed ration and total feed fed, which increased linearly with stocking rate. In Study 2, whole‐body dry matter, protein, protein retention, and lipid were unaffected by stocking rate, whereas whole‐body ash increased with stocking rate. Whole‐body energy retention significantly decreased with stocking rate. The outdoor mixotrophic biofloc production system is well suited for intensive production of hybrid tilapia stockers. However, additional replicated research and economic analysis are needed to evaluate stocking rate and culture duration to produce specific‐sized stocker hybrid tilapia.

Grace period of human mortality has declined for over a century.

Human mortality is U-shaped and, therefore, defines an age separating lives with an overall negative net change in mortality from lives with an overall positive net change in mortality. How has age changed, also relatively to life expectancy, over recent human history? And how does compare between humans and other primates, the mortality of which is also U-shaped? Modeling data from the Human Mortality Database, the historical change of in advanced economies is reported and compared with that of primates in wild and captive conditions the demography of which was already modeled in the literature. In humans, a marked decline in for both sexes, also relatively to their life expectancy, is associated with medical and economic progress. Comparing wild with captive conditions in nonhuman primates, magnitude, and direction of the change in , both relatively to life expectancy and absolutely, can depend on genus and sex. With medical and economic progress, human lives have transitioned from a negative to a positive net change in mortality independently of sex. There is no evidence of an analogous transition occurring in other primates when their environment is made more benign.

Fruitlet Thinning Reduces Biennial Bearing in Seven High-tannin Cider Apple Cultivars

Many European apple (Malus ×domestica Borkh.) cultivars used for making alcoholic cider have a highly biennial bearing habit. To determine target crop load recommendations, seven cider cultivars grown in a high-density orchard were hand-thinned to crop densities of 0, 3, 6, and 9 fruit/cm2 trunk cross-sectional area (TCSA) or left unthinned as a control for 3 consecutive years (2016–18). Treatments were imposed on the same trees for all 3 years. Greater year-to-year yield variability, as measured by the biennial bearing index (BBI), correlated negatively with cumulative yields both within and among cultivars. Greater crop density had a negative correlation with the amount of return bloom in all years, but reducing crop density had a negligible effect on return bloom in the “off” year. When trees were left unthinned in the high-crop “on” years there was little to no return bloom in the following year. Partial budget analysis found that manually reducing crop density would result in a positive net change in 3-year profitability for Dabinett, but not the other cultivars. Over 4 years, under conservative assumptions about fruit set, chemical thinning to 9 fruit/cm2 TCSA would likely result in increased cumulative profitability in all seven cultivars. Hand-thinning was projected to be less profitable than chemical thinning but would still result in increased net profitability over 4 years, for five of the seven cultivars. These findings highlight the horticultural and economic benefits of crop load management for cider apple orchards. Further, many high-tannin cider cultivars can sustain a higher crop density than what is recommended for fresh-market apple production and still have adequate return bloom and cumulative yields.

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Dynamics by CA-ANN and CA-Markov Model Approaches: A Case Study of Ranipet Town, India

The present study analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in the Land Use Land Cover types within Ranipet Municipal town in Ranipet District, Tamil Nadu State, India, using two different platforms (QGIS and IDRISI Selva v.17.0). The possible parameters driven the net changes in the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) types were also incorporated for the analysis. Results revealed the positive net changes in the built-up area are about 26.8%, and combined other classes like vegetation, barren land, and water bodies have net negative changes during 1997-2019. Particularly barren land was found to have a reduction of 17.4% due to the massive industrialization in the study area. Further, the LULC maps were used for future prediction (2029) using the dynamic models of CA-ANN (Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network) and CA-Markov. Predicted maps yielded a kappa index of 81.6% and 82.6% for CA-ANN and CA-Markov, representing their respective accuracy levels. The CA-Markov model is extended for determining the probable long-term changes for 2080 in LULC with a kappa index of 76.2%. Compared to the CA-ANN model using the QGIS platform, CA-Markov provided better analysis, particularly from one cell to the other. According to the survey and the ground truth in the locality, industrialization and occupational shift were the most influential drivers of LULC dynamics. Moreover, the results of this study assist the stakeholders in the decision-making process for future sustainable land use management.

Economic Viability of Mucuna Intercropped with Maize Cropping System in Muheza District

Mucuna (Mucuna puriens) intercropping with maize is one of the alternatives to revive the declining maize production caused by low soil fertility and pest infestation. However, there is paucity of knowledge on the economic viability of the technology being studied. This research assessed the maize yields, variable costs and economic viability of adopting mucuna-maize intercropping in Muheza district, Tanzania. A total of 400 farmers were selected randomly (200 farmers who adopted mucuna intercropped with maize and 200 farmers growing maize after maize (continuous cropping). The Partial Budgeting approach was used to determine the net change in income when farmers decide to switch from continuous cropping. The results indicated that switching from continuous maize cropping to Mucuna intercropped with maize resulted in a positive net change in income of TZS 235,304.60/ha. The study concluded that mucuna intercropped with maize is economically viable. The use of mucuna intercropped with maize is hereby recommended to farmers.

Quantifying spatial reallocation of land use/land cover categories in West Africa

Past Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transitions analysis at the sub-continental scale of West Africa revealed spatial reallocation, i.e., simultaneous losses and gains of the LULC categories at different locations. We applied the component analysis approach to separate the total change into three major components, i.e., quantity (net change), exchange and shift (allocation change) as a way to analyse such spatial reallocation and identify the paired categories that accounted for the largest exchange and shift through time. Quantity change is the absolute value of the category’s gross gains minus the category’s gross losses. An exchange occurs when for example, a natural vegetation patch evolves to cropland at a location concurrently with an equal extent of cropland evolving into natural vegetation at a different location. A shift occurs when the LULC categories involved in the exchange are more than two. The amount of exchange and shift and locations that these exchanges occurred are very useful information for land policies appraisal and the long term contested re-greening of Africa as it may signal simultaneous regrowth and degradation of natural vegetation at different locations in the same landscape and also possible misclassification errors. The results revealed large exchanges in the landscape of West Africa between 1975 and 2000 for arid and humid eco-regions in West Africa. Overall, the exchange and shift components between wetland, water bodies and some other LULC categories such as forestland, other vegetation and cropland were the highest. The exchange between natural vegetation and cropland was considerable, which confirms regrowth despite the massive degradation revealed by the previous studies. Here, the large exchange in 1975–2000 highlighted large spatial reallocation of the LULC categories. The highest net change was experienced in the period between 2000 and 2013 at all spatial aggregations. Settlement and cropland experienced the highest positive net change whilst forestland and other vegetation experienced the highest negative net change. Shift was absent in the category of settlements indicating persistence over time. This analysis provided useful information on the contested re-greening of West Africa.

Employment Effects of Environmental Policies – Evidence From Firm-Level Data

The employment impact of environmental policies is an important question for policy makers. We examine the effect of increasing the stringency of environmental policy across a broad set of policies on firms’ labor demand, in a novel identification approach using Worldscope data from 31 countries on firm-level CO2 emissions. Drawing on evidence from as many as 5300 firms over 15 years and the OECD environmental policy stringency (EPS) index, it finds that high emission-intensity firms reduce labor demand upon impact as EPS is tightened, whereas low emission-intensity firms increase labor demand, indicating a reallocation of employment. Moreover, tightening EPS during economic contractions appears to have a positive effect on employment, other things equal. Quantifications exercises show modest positive net changes in employment for market-based policies, and modest negative net changes for non-market policies (mainly emission quantity regulations) and for the combined aggregate EPS. Within market-based policies, the percent decline in employment in high-emission firms (correspondingly the increase in low-emission firms) for a unit change in a policy index is smallest (largest) for trading schemes (“green” certificates, and “white” certificates)—although stringency is not comparable across indices. Finally, the employment effects of EPS are not persistent.

Biophysical and Socioeconomic Factors Associated to Deforestation and Forest Recovery in Brazilian Tropical Dry Forests

The determination of land cover changes (LCCs) and their association to biophysical and socioeconomic factors is vital to support government policies toward the sustainable use of natural resources. The present study aimed to quantify deforestation, forest recovery and net cover change in tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Brazil from 2007 to 2016, and investigate how they are associated to biophysical and socioeconomic factors. We also assessed the effects of LCC variables in human welfare indicators. For this purpose, we used MODIS imagery to calculate TDF gross loss (deforestation), gross gain (forest recovery) and net cover change (the balance between deforestation and forest recovery) for 294 counties in three Brazilian states (Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Piauí). We obtained seven factors potentially associated to LCC at the county level: total county area, road density, humidity index, slope, elevation, and % change in human population and in cattle density. From 2007 to 2016, TDF cover increased from 76,693 to 80,964 km2 (+5.6%). This positive net change resulted from a remarkable forest recovery of 19,018 km2 (24.8%), offsetting a large deforested area (14,748 km2; 19.2%). Practically all these cover changes were a consequence of transitions from TDF to pastures and vice-versa, highlighting the importance of developing sustainable policies for cattle raising in TDF regions. Each LCC variable was associated to different set of factors, but two biophysical variables were significantly associated both to TDF area gained and lost per county: county area (positively) and slope (negatively), indicating that large and flat counties have very dynamic LCCs. The TDF net area change was only associated (negatively) to the humidity index, reflecting an increase in TDF cover in more arid counties. The net increase in Brazilian TDF area is likely a result from an interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic factors that reduced deforestation and caused pasture abandonment. Although the ecological integrity and permanence of secondary TDFs need further investigation, the recovery of this semi-arid ecosystem must be valued and accounted for in the national forest restoration programs, as it would significantly help achieving the goals established in the Bonn agreement and the Atlantic Rain Forest pact.

Environment Versus Jobs: An Industry-Level Analysis of Sweden

The aim of this paper was to investigate whether the environment and employment compete with each other in Swedish manufacturing industry. The effect of a marginal increase in environmental expenditure and environmental investment costs on sector-level demand for labor (employment) was studied using a detailed firm-level panel dataset for the period 2001–2008. The results showed that the sign and magnitude of the net employment effects ultimately depend on the aggregate sector-level output demand elasticity. If the output demand is inelastic, these costs induce small net improvements in employment, while a more elastic output demand suggests negative, but in most sectors relatively small, net effects on demand for labor. Hence, the results did not generally indicate a substantial trade-off between jobs and the environment. The general policy recommendation that can be drawn from this study is that, in the absence of empirically estimated output demand elasticities, a careful attitude regarding national environmental initiatives for sectors exposed to world market competition should be adopted.

Changes of Tree Species Composition and Distribution Patterns in Mts. Jiri and Baegun, Republic of Korea over 15 Years

Long-term changes in the abundance and distribution of tree species in the temperate forests of South Korea remain poorly understood. We investigated the changes in tree species composition in temperate mountainous forests using survey data from 130 permanent plots (0.1 ha) from the past 15 years (1998–2012) distributed across Mts. Jiri and Baegun, South Korea. The tree communities showed positive net changes in terms of stand density, richness, diversity, and evenness. At the species level, the change in relative species composition has been mainly driven by species such as Quercus mongolica, Carpinus laxiflora, Quercus serrata, Quercus variabilis, Styrax japonicus, Lindera erythrocarpa, and Pinus densiflora. These changes were categorized into five groups representing gradual increase or decrease, establishment, extinction, or fluctuation in species populations. At the community level, the changes in species composition showed consistent and directional increases in the annual rate of change for the mean species traits, including stand prevalence, pole growth rate, adult growth rate, and adult stature. Based on additive models, topographic variables (elevation, latitude, longitude, slope, topographic wetness index, and curvature) were more strongly associated with the distribution of species diversity than climate variables (annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures, temperature seasonality, annual rainfall, rainfall seasonality). Elevation was the most significant driver, followed by latitude and longitude. This study reveals the dynamics of change in tree species composition and distribution along topographical and climate gradients in South Korea and contributes to a broader understanding of temperate forest ecosystems for the purpose of better forest management.

Evaluation of the Adoption of Improved Agricultural Practices and Factors That Affect Adoption of Tef (<i>Eragrostis tef (Zucc) Trotter</i>) in Ethiopia

The average grain yield is low (at 1.75tha-1). Therefore, this study aimed to analyse the adoption of improved tef practices impacting yield and factors affecting the adoption of the improved agricultural practice in four regions of Ethiopia. Household surveys and crop cut surveys were used. Four districts, 101 each in Amhara, SNNP, Tigray, and 100 farmers in Oromia regions of Ethiopia were assessed in the study. Therefore, a total of 403 respondent farmers, were used. Data were analysed using SSPS. Among the seven improved agricultural practices assessed, fertilizer application, variety selection, and use, land preparation, and herbicide application showed higher adoption among the farmers. The correlation analysis results revealed that yield is positively and significantly correlated with land preparation (r=0.492), row planting (r=0.351) hand weeding (0.306), fertilizer application (r=0.143). This implies that the adoptions of these improved practices were contributing to yield increment. The result clearly indicated that the adoption of improved practices was influenced by a composite of demographic, socio-economic, and institutional factors. The partial budget analysis was employed using previous variable cost data collected in the Ada district by Debre Zeit Agricultural Research Centre. The result revealed that the highest increased income showed in Lume districts (positive net change in benefits) 37,431.2 birr ha-1 followed by Siyadebirenawayu districts which were 31,131.73 birr ha-1. However, the increased income in Lemo and Lalye Maychew were minima l9513.34 birr ha-1 and 11,469.95 birrs ha-1 respectively. The benefit-cost ratio for Lume and Siyadebir enawayu districts were 3.9 and 3.3, respectively. However, the benefit-cost ratio for Lemo and Lalye Maychew were 1.7 and 1.9, respectively. The variables significantly affect the adoption of tef improved practices by farmers were age, education level, family size, farm size, extension service provision. To solve problems of inadequate use of improved practices, Development Agents and Agricultural experts should provide farmers with more practical pieces of training under farmers’ direct participation in the demonstration centres. In order to attain food security, the nation policymakers should devise more effective farmers’ training mechanisms and provide more applicable tef production mechanizations effective on the process of tef production.

Implications of land use/land cover dynamics and Prosopis invasion on ecosystem service values in Afar Region, Ethiopia

Land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics and the resulting changes in ecosystems, as well as the services they provide, are a consequence of human activities and environmental drivers, such as invasive alien plant species. This study assessed the changes in LULC and ecosystem service values (ESVs) in the Afar National Regional State, Ethiopia, which experiences a rapid invasion by the alien tree Prosopis juliflora (Swartz DC). Landsat satellite data of 1986, 2000 and 2017 were used in Random Forest algorithm to assess LULC changes in the last 31 years, to calculate net changes for different LULC types and the associated changes in ESVs. Kappa accuracies of 88% and higher were obtained for the three LULC classifications. Post-classification change analyses for the period between 1986 and 2017 revealed a positive net change for Prosopis invaded areas, cropland, salt flats, settlements and waterbodies. The rate of Prosopis invasion was estimated at 31,127 ha per year. Negative net changes were found for grassland, bareland, bush-shrub-woodland, and natural forests. According to the local community representatives, the four most important drivers of LULC dynamics were climate change, frequent droughts, invasive species and weak traditional law. Based on two different ESVs estimations, the ecosystem changes caused by LULC changes resulted in an average loss of ESVs in the study area of about US$ 602 million (range US$ 112 to 1091 million) over the last 31 years. With an increase in area by 965,000 ha, Prosopis-invaded land was the highest net change during the study period, followed by grassland (−599,000 ha), bareland (−329,000 ha) and bush-shrub-woodland (−327,000 ha). Our study provides evidence that LULC changes in the Afar Region have led to a significant loss in ESVs, with serious consequences for the livelihoods of the rural people.

Quantitative assessment of 2014–2015 land-cover changes in Azerbaijan using object-based classification of LANDSAT-8 timeseries

The main goals of this study are the object-based land-cover classification of LANDSAT-8 satellite imagery of 2014 and 2015, the quantitative assessment of gross and net changes of agricultural land, built-up areas, forest, bare soil and forest between 2014 and 2015, the quantification of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) rates within these land-cover classes, and the change detection analysis between the NDVIs. The achieved overall accuracies of object-based classification for the 2014 and the 2015 land-cover maps were 82 and 87 %, respectively. Therefore, the achieved accuracies were considered to be acceptable for quantified change detection analyses. For the gross areas of agricultural land, forest and built-up areas an increase was observed. The agricultural gross area was 30,911 km2 in 2014 and 31,999 km2 in 2015. The gross area of the built-up land increased from 12,550 to 13,548 km2. The gross area of forest land changed from 8211 to 9175 km2. A decrease was observed in the gross area of grassland from 28,229 to 24,925 km2. This was primarily related to the land-cover shifts driven by agricultural activities. The gross areas of bare soil and water bodies did not change significantly. The net change analysis, however, revealed significant differences in comparison to gross change areas for both gains and losses of the land-cover classes. The net change analysis revealed positive net changes of 7229, 5576, 1337, 399, 951 km2 for agricultural land, forest, built-up areas, bare soil and water bodies, correspondingly. A negative net change of 2198 km2 was observed for grassland. This allows to conclude that the negative net change of grassland was related with the significant changes of grassland into agricultural land. No significant net changes were observed for the bare soil land-cover class. The classification of NDVIs derived from 2014 to 2015 LANDSAT-8 OLI satellite images showed that the vegetation cover of agricultural and built-up land-cover increased for the low (0.1–0.2) and medium (0.2–0.3) and decreased for the high NDVI values (0.3–1). The area of high (0.3–1) NDVIs in the forest land-cover was observed to be higher in 2015 than in 2014. A reduction in the low (0.1–0.2), medium (0.2–0.3) and high NDVI values (0.3–1) was observed for the grasslands land-cover. The reductions of the high NDVI rates (0.3–1) observed for agricultural, build-up and grasslands land-cover types may be related to agricultural and industrial activities and also to climate change impacts. For the entire coverage of Azerbaijan, positive and negative NDVI changes of 3170 and 3859 km2 respectively were observed.

Higher net change of index of hemoglobin values between colon polyp and nonpolyp mucosa correlates with the presence of an advanced colon adenoma

Background The index of hemoglobin (IHb) has not been applied in colonoscopy to correlate the histological features of colon polyps. This study tested whether the net change of IHb values between polyp and normal mucosa correlates with the pathological features of colon polyps. Patients and methods This study consecutively enrolled patients who underwent colonoscopy during September 2011–August 2012 in a single tertiary referral colorectal unit. Endoscopic pictures and IHb values of each part of the colon were taken at the levels of cecum, ascending colon, transverse colon, sigmoid colon, and rectum. The net change of IHb values was calculated as follows: IHb value of colon polyp minus that of the surrounding mucosa. Results A total of 117 patients (32 with hyperplastic polyp, 5 with sessile serrated adenoma, 53 with tubular adenoma, 10 with villotubular adenoma, and 3 with adenocarcinoma) were recruited. The net change of IHb values increased in following order: hyperplastic polyp, tubular adenoma, sessile serrated adenoma, villotubular adenoma, and adenocarcinoma (−3.8 ± 6.3, −1.2 ± 1.7, −1.2 ± 5.7, 2.9 ± 8.1, and 12.7 ± 9.3, respectively; p < 0.001). Alcohol drinking and serum hemoglobin level were two independent factors related to the IHb values of non-polyp colon mucosa. Using a cutoff value of 2.4 for the net change of IHb values, selected based on the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal sensitivity (52.9%) and specificity (75.6%) could be achieved for defining the polyp histology as an advanced colon lesion. Conclusion The net change of IHb values between colon polyp and nonpolyp mucosa can correlate with the pathological features of colon polyps. A positive net change of IHb values may indicate a more adverse histological pattern with a higher malignant potential.

Partial Budgeting Analysis of Different Strategies for Management of Insect Pests in Cashew and Mango Orchards in Tanzania

Before changing from one production method to another, farmers need to consider costs and incomes resulting from the change. This study estimated the effects on net benefit of switching from conventional Tanzanian growing practices (spraying of chemical pesticides and non-pest control) to the use of African weaver ants (Oecophylla longinoda) to control pests in cashew and mango. Yield data from one cashew and one mango plantation covering two cropping seasons was used in an economic analysis. The use of chemical pesticides and the use of weaver ants resulted in higher yields compared to the non-control treatment. Lower input costs in weaver ant treatments, though, resulted in higher economic returns than the use of chemical insecticides in both seasons and crops. In all cases weaver ant treatments also produced higher returns than non-control treatments, despite their higher costs. Switching to African weaver ants without feeding was feasible due to positive net change in benefits in both crops. In cashew the average net benefit for the two seasons was 94% higher when using ants compared to non-control and 112% higher than in the chemical treatment. The corresponding values in mango were 117% and 63%, respectively. Marginal Rate of Return (MRR) was highest for African weaver ants without feeding in cashew at 235% in 2012/13 and 405% in 2013/14 seasons. Similarly, MRR was highest for weaver ant without feeding in mango at 509% in 2012/13 and 743% in 2013/14 seasons. In conclusion, the use of African weaver ants without feeding was consistently the most economically feasible management strategy to be used in Tanzanian cashew and mango pest management.

Susceptibility to pediatric Helicobacter pylori infection correlates with the host responses of regulatory and effector T cells.

Tolerance to the early acquisition of Helicobacter pylori is suggested because of a biased ratio of regulatory to effector T cells in a mice model. This study investigated whether the CD4CD25 regulatory T (Treg) and CD4+CD25- effector T (Teff) cell responses after H. pylori exposure determine H. pylori susceptibility in children. Treg and Teff cells from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of H. pylori-infected and non-infected children were incubated with H. pylori protein. The cytokine levels and fraction of FOXP3+ to T cells were measured. FOXP3 expression was assessed by Western blotting and immunohistochemistry of gastric biopsies from dyspeptic children. The fraction of FOXP3+ to CD4+CD25 high cells in PBMCs, FOXP3-positive staining and translation level in gastric tissues were higher in H. pylori-infected children than in controls (P < 0.05). The translation levels of TGF-β1 in gastric tissues were higher in H. pylori-infected children than in controls (P < 0.05). After H. pylori challenge, H. pylori-infected children had a positive net-change in TGF-β1 from Treg cells, and a negative net-change of IFN-γ from Teff cells. Paradoxically, the non-infected controls had a negative net-change in TGF-β1 from Treg cells, and a positive net-change of IFN-γ from Teff cells. The host response of Treg cells with increases in FOXP3 and TGF-β1 combined with a reduction in IFN-γ by Teff cells may contribute to H. pylori susceptibility in children.

A Bayesian geostatistical Moran Curve model for estimating net changes of tsetse populations in Zambia.

For the first time a Bayesian geostatistical version of the Moran Curve, a logarithmic form of the Ricker stock recruitment curve, is proposed that is able to give an estimate of net change in population demographic rates considering components such as fertility and density dependent and density independent mortalities. The method is applied to spatio-temporally referenced count data of tsetse flies obtained from fly-rounds. The model is a linear regression with three components: population rate of change estimated from the Moran curve, an explicit spatio-temporal covariance, and the observation error optimised within a Bayesian framework. The model was applied to the three main climate seasons of Zambia (rainy – January to April, cold-dry – May to August, and hot-dry – September to December) taking into account land surface temperature and (seasonally changing) cattle distribution. The model shows a maximum positive net change during the hot-dry season and a minimum between the rainy and cold-dry seasons. Density independent losses are correlated positively with day-time land surface temperature and negatively with night-time land surface temperature and cattle distribution. The inclusion of density dependent mortality increases considerably the goodness of fit of the model. Cross validation with an independent dataset taken from the same area resulted in a very accurate estimate of tsetse catches. In general, the overall framework provides an important tool for vector control and eradication by identifying vector population concentrations and local vector demographic rates. It can also be applied to the case of sustainable harvesting of natural populations.

Deep living Planktothrix rubescens modulated by environmental constraints and climate forcing

The cyanoprokaryote Planktothrix rubescens has been studied for over four decades in an alpine lake, Mondsee, Austria. We hypothesise that impacts of climate change can be distinguished from other environmental constraints controlling its population dynamics. During thermal stratification, P. rubescens formed a deep chlorophyll maximum in the metalimnion. Seasonal and diurnal depth distributions indicated that Planktothrix lived well below the euphotic zone, at low light levels and moderate temperatures. Photosynthetic parameters indicated a shade adapted population. The eutrophication and rehabilitation periods of Mondsee were characterised by fluctuations controlled by phosphorus, with periods below the P-threshold associated with low biovolumes and relatively stable populations. Positive net changes of Planktothrix biovolume occurred during the spring–summer transition and in autumn. During summer, the population usually declined to an annual minimum. The standardised residuals of annual biovolumes responded positively to the climate signal of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the timing of the onset of stratification. An inverse relationship existed between off-set and persistence of stratification. P. rubescens only benefits from climate warming early in the year, during late spring overturn and early summer. Longer periods of summer stratification did not favour biovolume development.

Die regionale Arbeitsplatzdynamik in Deutschland – Mehr Bewegung im Osten

Von 2001 bis 2006 gingen jahrlich insgesamt etwa 150.000 Stellen am deutschen Arbeitsmarkt verloren. Hinter dieser eher geringen Gesamtveranderung stehen erhebliche Strome. Die Nettostellenentwicklung von 150.000 ergibt sich aus 2,16 Mio. gewonnenen Stellen in wachsenden und gegrundeten Betrieben sowie 2,31 Mio. verlorenen Stellen in schrumpfenden und geschlossenen Betrieben. Sowohl die Nettostellenentwicklung als auch die Einzelstrome – Stellenentstehung und -verluste – sind uber Deutschland ungleich verteilt. Neben den bekannten Nord-Sud- und Ost-West-Unterschieden zeigt sich fur Kreise in Regionen mit mittlerem Agglomerationsgrad eine bessere Entwicklung als fur Kreise in hoch agglomerierten oder landlichen Gebieten. Stellenentstehung und Stellenverluste sind stark positiv korreliert. Eine hohe Stellenentstehungsrate geht aber nicht immer mit einer positiven Nettostellenentwicklung einher. Im Gegenteil, der Stellenumschlag, also die Summe aus Stellenentstehung und Stellenverlusten, korreliert negativ mit der Nettostellenentwicklung. Die raumliche Verteilung der Komponenten des Stellenumschlages legt nahe, dass benachbarte Regionen sich gegenseitig beeinflussen bzw. durch ahnliche Faktoren in gleicher Weise beeinflusst werden, was die hohen und signifikanten Moran-Indizes bestatigen.