Abstract
The determination of land cover changes (LCCs) and their association to biophysical and socioeconomic factors is vital to support government policies toward the sustainable use of natural resources. The present study aimed to quantify deforestation, forest recovery and net cover change in tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Brazil from 2007 to 2016, and investigate how they are associated to biophysical and socioeconomic factors. We also assessed the effects of LCC variables in human welfare indicators. For this purpose, we used MODIS imagery to calculate TDF gross loss (deforestation), gross gain (forest recovery) and net cover change (the balance between deforestation and forest recovery) for 294 counties in three Brazilian states (Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Piauí). We obtained seven factors potentially associated to LCC at the county level: total county area, road density, humidity index, slope, elevation, and % change in human population and in cattle density. From 2007 to 2016, TDF cover increased from 76,693 to 80,964 km2 (+5.6%). This positive net change resulted from a remarkable forest recovery of 19,018 km2 (24.8%), offsetting a large deforested area (14,748 km2; 19.2%). Practically all these cover changes were a consequence of transitions from TDF to pastures and vice-versa, highlighting the importance of developing sustainable policies for cattle raising in TDF regions. Each LCC variable was associated to different set of factors, but two biophysical variables were significantly associated both to TDF area gained and lost per county: county area (positively) and slope (negatively), indicating that large and flat counties have very dynamic LCCs. The TDF net area change was only associated (negatively) to the humidity index, reflecting an increase in TDF cover in more arid counties. The net increase in Brazilian TDF area is likely a result from an interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic factors that reduced deforestation and caused pasture abandonment. Although the ecological integrity and permanence of secondary TDFs need further investigation, the recovery of this semi-arid ecosystem must be valued and accounted for in the national forest restoration programs, as it would significantly help achieving the goals established in the Bonn agreement and the Atlantic Rain Forest pact.
Highlights
The detection of land cover change (LCC) and its causes is fundamental to the formulation of public policies aiming at reducing the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, especially in highly threatened tropical regions
All these cover changes were a consequence of TDFpasture transitions: 18,459 km2 of pastures recovered to tropical dry forests (TDFs) and 14,394 km2 of TDFs were converted to pastures (Table 1)
Our results provide valuable basic information on the factors associated to land cover change in Brazilian TDFs, which can help supporting the design of environmental and development policies aimed at reducing deforestation and maximizing forest recovery
Summary
The detection of land cover change (LCC) and its causes is fundamental to the formulation of public policies aiming at reducing the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, especially in highly threatened tropical regions. The typical land use cycle in the tropics starts with deforestation of mature or secondary forests, frequently with the use of fire, to the establishment of pastures or croplands (Thomaz, 2013; Mesquita et al, 2015; Barlow et al, 2020; Schmidt and Eloy, 2020). Tropical agricultural lands are managed using fertilizers, pesticides, and fire [Barona et al, 2010; Organization for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD), 2018], frequently causing soil exhaustion (Sousa et al, 2012; RochaJúnior et al, 2017) followed by land abandonment (Lawrence et al, 2010; Thomaz, 2013; Mesquita et al, 2015). Natural regeneration is somewhat frequent, but its speed and pathways depend on several factors, such as landscape configuration (e.g., distance to forested areas, amount of forest cover) that affect the sources of plant colonizers (Jakovac et al, 2015; Rozendaal et al, 2019), and previous land use practices that determine soil biotic and abiotic conditions for seed germination and plant growth (Jakovac et al, 2015, 2016; Rezende and Vieira, 2019)
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