Positive Momentum Research Articles

The negative flow of probability

We derive an inequality that the parameters of a 1D free-particle Gaussian wave packet with a positive group velocity, approaching a given region x > q, must satisfy such that a negative probability current J exists on q. Local probability conservation implies the counter-intuitive result that the particle detection probability in the region x > q is actually decreasing. The condition J < 0 requires the negative correlation of the position and momentum observables of the state, but the time scales for the negative current and anti-correlation regimes are not identical. Using a probability current operator, we obtain an integral representation of J in momentum space for any free particle wave packet. We use this integral representation to distinguish the separate contributions to J by the positive and negative momentum components, and we identify a third contribution to J composed of cross-terms of both momenta. For the specific case of a Gaussian wave packet with a negative correlation between its position and momentum, the positive momentum component can contribute a negative value to the probability current.

Public Sentiment and the Price of Corporate Sustainability

Combining corporate sustainability performance scores based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) data with big data measuring public sentiment about a company’s sustainability performance, I find that the valuation premium paid for companies with strong sustainability performance has increased over time and that the premium is increasing as a function of positive public sentiment momentum. An ESG factor going long on firms with superior or increasing sustainability performance and negative sentiment momentum and short on firms with inferior or decreasing sustainability performance and positive sentiment momentum delivers significant positive alpha. This low sentiment ESG factor is uncorrelated with other factors, such as value, momentum, size, profitability and investment. In contrast, the high sentiment ESG factor delivers insignificant alpha and is strongly negatively correlated with the value factor. The evidence suggests that public sentiment influences investor views about the value of corporate sustainability activities and thereby both the price paid for corporate sustainability and the investment returns of portfolios that consider ESG data.

Public Sentiment and the Price of Corporate Sustainability

Combining environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data with “big data” measuring public sentiment about corporate sustainability performance, I found that the valuation premium for strong sustainability performance increases as a function of positive momentum in public sentiment. An ESG factor long (short) on companies with superior (inferior) sustainability performance and negative (positive) ESG sentiment momentum delivered significant positive alpha. In contrast, the high-sentiment ESG factor delivered insignificant alpha and was negatively correlated with the value factor. The evidence suggests that public sentiment influences investor views about the value of sustainability activities and that big ESG data can be useful in identifying “value” ESG stocks.

Interest Rate Momentum Everywhere Across Global Yield Curves

This paper explores time series momentum in interest rates across developed and emerging market countries and various interest rate maturities. With a one-year lookback window, almost all countries in our sample of G10 developed countries and 18 emerging market countries strategies have statistically significant positive time series momentum strategy returns. Shorter tenor (2-year) interest rate swaps have greater momentum returns compared to longer tenor (5-year and 10-year) interest rate swaps which arguably is a result of investor underreaction to monetary policy cycles. A significantly greater share of the positive momentum returns across all tenors comes from falling rate environments versus rising rate environments as a result of the secular decline in interest rates in recent decades. This suggests that if low interest rates continue to persist, future interest rate time series momentum strategy returns could be lower.

Pushing the limits: The European Central Bank’s role in Restoring Sustainable Growth

The European Central Bank (ECB) is a special, even unique central bank. It is a central bank without a treasury by its side or a state behind it, just as the euro, Europe’s common currency that the ECB is tasked with guarding, is a ‘denationalised’ currency. The euro area is a rare exception to the global ‘one state, one currency’ rule. But the ECB is not the only central bank in the euro area. Rather, the ECB is designed as the headquarters (or perhaps ‘cockpit’) of the Eurosystem, the system of European central banks that also includes the national central banks (NCBs) of European Union (EU) member countries that have adopted the euro as their common currency. The euro has failed to deliver on its promises. While the euro area’s performance during the euro’s first decade was mediocre, things turned truly dismal when the global fi nancial crisis of 2007–2009 struck. In contrast to the rest of the world, which started to recover from the crisis in 2010, the euro area suffered a ‘double-dip’ recession. Only since 2013 has the euro currency union experienced a fragile, uneven and incomplete revival. This study evaluates the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies and its role as euro crisis manager under Mario Draghi’s presidency, exploring the options available for adding further monetary policy stimulus going forward. As the euro’s central bank guardian, the ECB has been a central force throughout the crisis and its aftermath. Many observers would argue that among the euro area authorities the ECB stands out as the most constructive. ECB president Mario Draghi’s famous ‘whatever it takes’ declaration in July 2012 stopped the escalating crisis and marked a critical turning point. As the euro area’s uneven growth slowed markedly in 2018–2019 and the recovery increasingly appeared at risk of unravelling, all eyes once again turned to the ECB to come up with another ‘whatever it takes’ attack-plan to restore the positive momentum and keep the recovery alive. The ECB duly delivered a fresh monetary stimulus programme in autumn 2019, prompting new controversies, especially in Germany. But how much ammunition does the ECB really have left? Will it be enough to restore sustainable growth and save the euro for good?

Wave Excitation by Energetic Ring-distributed Electron Beams in the Solar Corona

Abstract We analyzed properties of waves excited by mildly relativistic electron beams propagating along the magnetic field with a ring-shape perpendicular momentum distribution in neutral and current-free solar coronal plasmas. These plasmas are subject to both the beam and the electron cyclotron maser instabilities driven by the positive momentum gradients of the ring-beam electron distribution in the directions parallel and perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field, respectively. To explore the related kinetic processes self-consistently, 2.5D fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulations were carried out. To quantify excited wave properties in different coronal conditions, we investigated the dependences of their energy and polarization on the ring-beam electron density and magnetic field. In general, electrostatic waves dominate the energetics of waves, and nonlinear waves are ubiquitous. In weakly magnetized plasmas, where the electron cyclotron frequency ω ce is lower than the electron plasma frequency ω pe, it is difficult to produce escaping electromagnetic waves with frequency ω > ω pe and small refractive index (k and c are the wavenumber and the light speed, respectively). Highly polarized and anisotropic escaping electromagnetic waves can, however, be effectively excited in strongly magnetized plasmas with ω ce/ω pe ≥ 1. The anisotropies of the energy, circular polarization degree (CPD), and spectrogram of these escaping electromagnetic waves strongly depend on the number density ratio of the ring-beam electrons to the background electrons. In particular, their CPDs can vary from left-handed to right-handed with the decrease of the ring-beam density, which may explain some observed properties of solar radio bursts (e.g., radio spikes) from the solar corona.

The State of Sustainable Agriculture and Agroecology Research and Impacts: A Survey of U.S. Scientists

A growing body of research suggests that although sustainable agriculture, particularly agroecology, can address challenges such as those related to climate change, ecosystem services, food insecurity, and farmer livelihoods, the transition to such sys­tems remains limited. To gain insight into the state of U.S. sustainable agriculture and agroecology, we developed a 28-question mixed-method survey that was administered to scientists in these fields. Respondents (N=168) represented diverse loca­tions, institutions, and career stages. They offered varied definitions of sustainable agriculture, with 40% considering economic and social well-being to be core components. Respondents identified the amount and duration of public research funding as important obstacles to conducting research on sus­tainable agriculture (85% and 61%, respectively). Further, most expressed challenges in communi­cating findings beyond academia, including to the media and policymakers, potentially limiting the impacts of such research. However, respondents expressed satisfaction in several areas, including relationships with community members (81%) and local producers (81%), and interest from students (80%) and research communities (73%), suggesting positive momentum in this field. Earlier versus later career scientists rated research on “human dimensions” as more important, expressed greater concerns over career stability, and were less satis­fied with opportunities for policy engagement. Results imply that greater public investments, par­ticularly fostering human dimensions, could sup­port a transition to agroecology and its associated benefits. See the press release for this article.

Quantum traversal time across a potential well

We consider the quantum traversal time of an incident wave packet across a potential well using the theory of quantum time of arrival (TOA)-operators. This is done by constructing the corresponding TOA-operator across a potential well via quantization. The expectation value of the potential well TOA-operator is compared to the free particle case for the same incident wave packet. The comparison yields a closed-form expression of the quantum well traversal time which explicitly shows the classical contributions of the positive and negative momentum components of the incident wave packet and a purely quantum mechanical contribution significantly dependent on the well depth. An incident Gaussian wave packet is then used as an example. It is shown that for shallow potential wells, the quantum well traversal time approaches the classical traversal time across the well region when the incident wave packet is spatially broad and approaches the expected quantum free particle traversal time when the wave packet is localized. For deep potential wells, the quantum traversal time oscillates from positive to negative implying that the wave packet can be advanced or delayed.

Aggregate profit instability and time variations in momentum returns: Evidence from China

This study investigates the predictive power of aggregate profit instability for time variations in momentum returns. We find that aggregate profit instability has significantly negative predictive power for momentum returns. This predictive power is asymmetric depending on the market state. Specifically, it is prominent in an UP market state but significantly decreasing in a DOWN market state. This asymmetric predictive pattern persists even after we control for traditional factors that influence time variations in momentum returns. Furthermore, based on unanticipated aggregate profit instability, we explore the source of momentum returns and find that the negative risk price of unanticipated aggregate profit instability is an important source for positive momentum returns; this finding is consistent with the risk compensation explanation for the momentum effect. Lastly, inspired by the empirical results, we suggest the following intuitive explanation for the predictability of momentum returns: in the Chinese stock market, the predictability of momentum returns can be attributed to the time-varying proportion of speculators, which could also be influenced by aggregate profit instability in the market.

Momentum Effect all over the World

This study is intended to reaffirm the existence and profitability of momentum investment strategies in 40 countries around the world during the period 1996–2018. The contradictory findings of previous research on the existence and profitability of momentum strategies have raised a pertinent question on the validity of efficient market hypothesis. We documented the momentum effect in 90% of our sample countries of which 52.5% exhibited positive momentum effect while 37.5% exhibited negative momentum effect. The findings were robust to two distinct sub-period analyses. The clear rejection of efficient market hypotheses is valuable to momentum traders and stock market regulators.

Exploration on the psychological momentum strategy of national badminton players

<p>The purpose of this study was to conduct an in-depth exploration of Korean national badminton players’ psychological momentum strategies. Data were collected using an open-ended questionnaire and group interviews of 66 badminton players, including 40 members of the 2018 Korean national badminton team and 22 college and semi-pro badminton players who each had badminton careers of 10 or more years and were registered in the Badminton Korea Association. The data were analyzed using inductive content analysis and the deductive process based on the inductively categorized results. The results are as follows. First, regarding strategies for maintaining positive momentum, 188 raw data were collected and classified into three category (keeping pace, dominating the play, and psychological facilitation) and 10 sub-category (including speedy resumption of the game, attacking weak points, and fighting shout). The results suggest that badminton players maintain positive momentum by using strategies to control the speed and tempo of the game at their preferred pace, implement special techniques, exploit their opponent’s weaknesses, and cheer or talk amongst themselves to motivate each other and communicate with their partners and coaches. Second, regarding strategies for overcoming negative momentum, 293 raw data points were collected and classified into three category (time outs, psychological reminders, and changes in plays) and 11 sub-category (including delaying the game, seeking social support, and play change). The data demonstrate that badminton players overcome negative momentum using strategies to intentionally delay the game and exchange equipment, focus on performance cues, and interact with their coaches and partners to change plays and prevent errors. It is hoped that these study findings will inform efforts to provide psychological support that is effective in increasing the odds of winning for the national badminton players in the Asian Games and the Olympic.</p>

China’s Digital Publishing Moving Towards In-Depth Integrated Development

Against the backdrop of accelerating the “national cyber development strategy”, positive development momentum was seen in the digital publishing industry in China in 2018, generating a total revenue of RMB833.08 billion, exceeding the RMB800 billion mark, with an increase of 17.8% over the previous year. To fulfill the task of media integration for further development, higher requirements have been put forward for digital publishing, which is not in the face of new development opportunities and challenges. In this paper, we analyze the environment and development of the Digital Publishing Industry in 2018, propose countermeasures to further promote the development of digital publishing, and forecast the development trend of digital publishing in the coming year.

The impact of dynamic status changes within competitive rank-ordered hierarchies

Jockeying and competing for higher status is an inherent feature of rank-ordered hierarchies. Despite theoretically acknowledging rank changes within hierarchies, the extant literature has ignored the role of competitors' dynamic movements on a focal actor's resulting behavior. By using a dynamic lens to examine these movement in competitive situations, we examine how positive change in a competitor's rank-that is, positive status momentum-affects a focal actor's psychology and resulting performance. We consider the real-world contexts of 5.2 million observations of chess tournaments and 117,762 observations of professional tennis players and find that a focal actor's performance in both cognitive and physical competitions is negatively impacted when facing a competitor with positive momentum. Additionally, 4 experimental studies reveal that a competitor's positive momentum results in the focal actor's positive projection of the competitor's future rank, which, in turn, increases the psychological threat for the actor. Collectively, our findings advance the social hierarchy literature by helping to elucidate the manner in which rank-ordered hierarchies are negotiated and disrupted over time.

A Model for Cultivating a Culture of Continuous Learning and Improvement: An Ethnographic Report.

The importance of culture is often emphasized for continuous learning and quality improvement within health care organizations. Limited empirical evidence for cultivating a culture that supports continuous learning and quality improvement in health care settings is currently available. The purpose of this report is to characterize the evolution of a large division of physical therapists and occupational therapists in a pediatric hospital setting from 2005 to 2018 to identify key facilitators and barriers for cultivating a culture empowered to engage in continuous learning and improvement. An ethnographic methodology was used including participant observation, document review, and stakeholder interviews to acquire a deep understanding and develop a theoretical model to depict insights gained from the investigation. A variety of individual, social, and structural enablers and motivators emerged as key influences toward a culture empowered to support continuous learning and improvement. Features of the system that helped create sustainable, positive momentum (e.g., systems thinking, leaders with grit, and mindful design) and factors that hindered momentum (e.g., system uncertainty, staff turnover, slow barrier resolution, and competing priorities) were also identified. Individual-level, social-level, and structural-level elements all influenced the culture that emerged over a 12-year period. Several cultural catalysts and deterrents emerged as factors that supported and hindered progress and sustainability of the emergent culture. Cultivating a culture of continuous learning and improvement is possible. Purposeful consideration of the proposed model and identified factors from this report may yield important insights to advance understanding of how to cultivate a culture that facilitates continuous learning and improvement within a health care setting.

Price Momentum in Korea and the Effect of Investors’ Trading

This study investigates domestic individual, institutional and foreign investors’ trading, to test Hong and Stein (1999)’s behavioral explanation that momentum profit is generated as some uninformed investors underreact to information on medium-term prices. Using Hvidkjaer (2006)’s methodology, we examine the respective investors’ trading tendencies reflected in their active price-setting orders. We analyze a special database compiling details on every transaction for the stocks listed on the KSE during 1996:12~2009:08. During 2001~2007, individual investors’ underreaction in trading large-size winner stocks contributes to positive momentum profits. They seem to induce weak negative profits to emerge in 1997~2000, too. Foreign investors underreact to small-size loser stocks, incurring positive momentum profits during 2001~2007. They engage in positive feedback trading, when they trade large-size winner stocks. This trading tendency does not seem to be based on information on firm fundamentals, as we find those winner stocks’ returns are not sustained. Institutional investors’ trading seems to be relatively in line with future returns, but evidences are not strong enough to support they are informed investors. Overall, the behavioral hypothesis on investors’ underreaction seems to explain medium-term momentum profits in Korea, but evidences differing across subsamples suggest possibility of other unknown influences.

Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum

We show how to construct a composite Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to calculate real-time recession probability, using the jubilee and ldhmm packages in R. The input data is the unemployment rate (UNRATE) which is released monthly by the U.S. government. There are two sub-models: The one-year momentum model and the 6-month acceleration model. The product of the two generates the recession probability. Our model demonstrates that positive momentum in unemployment kicks off a recession. The momentum accelerates during the recession. And eventually the rapid deceleration marks the end of it.

Momentum Effect in the NBA: Exploiting the Fine Line Between Winning and Losing

Serial correlation in performance has been analyzed extensively in finance and athletic competition. Momentum is an empirically established tendency for asset prices, but the existence of momentum in sports remains an open question. We find evidence of momentum in the National Basketball Association. A regression discontinuity design enables us to identify the causal effect of recent victories. We find a small positive momentum effect overall, but a large negative momentum effect for the playoffs, during which the influence of confounding factors is attenuated. We discuss potential strategic mechanisms behind this finding, and conclude that even within a sports league, the influence of momentum depends on context and incentives.

Interaction between the MJO and High-Frequency Waves over the Maritime Continent in Boreal Winter

AbstractThe two-way interaction between Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and higher-frequency waves (HFW) over the Maritime Continent (MC) during boreal winter of 1984–2005 is investigated. It is noted from observational analysis that strengthened (weakened) HFW activity appears to the west (east) of and under MJO convection during the MJO active phase and the opposite is seen during the MJO suppressed phase. Sensitivity model experiments indicate that the control of HFW activity by MJO is through change of the background vertical wind shear and specific humidity. The upscale feedbacks from HFW to MJO through nonlinear rectification of condensational heating and eddy momentum transport are also investigated with observational data. A significantly large amount (25%–40%) of positive heating anomaly () at low levels to the east of MJO convection is contributed by nonlinear rectification of HFW. This nonlinear rectification is primarily attributed to eddy meridional moisture advection. A momentum budget diagnosis reveals that 60% of MJO zonal wind tendency at 850 hPa is attributed to the nonlinear interaction of HFW with other scale flows. Among them, the largest contribution arises from eddy zonal momentum flux divergence . Easterly (westerly) vertical shear to the west (east) of MJO convection during the MJO active phase causes the strengthening (weakening) of the HFW zonal wind anomaly. This leads to the increase (decrease) of eddy momentum flux activity to the east (west) of the MJO convection, which causes a positive (negative) eddy zonal momentum flux divergence in the zonal wind transitional region during the MJO active (suppressed) phase, favoring the eastward propagation of the MJO.

Gaining or Losing Team Ball Possession: The Dynamics of Momentum Perception and Strategic Choice in Football Coaches.

Grounded in the dynamical systems approach, the present research examined the influence of team ball possession (TBP) in soccer on coaches’ perceived psychological momentum (PM) and strategic choice (i.e., game-based “stick” vs. “switch” choices) during a simulated match. Experienced soccer coaches imagined being the coach of the team involved in a highly important match that was displayed on a wall in a lecture hall. The match scenario was manipulated so that the coach was exposed to either a positive momentum sequence (i.e., ascending scenario of TBP) or a negative momentum sequence (i.e., descending scenario of TBP). Results revealed that positive (or negative) momentum sequence increased (or decreased) perceived PM and increased stick (or switch) choices. Perceived PM globally evolved linearly, while strategic choice displayed a dynamical pattern of “critical boundary” (thus showing a nonlinear change). Nonetheless, both variables displayed asymmetrical effects, in the sense that: (1) the strength of positive PM appeared to be easier to decrease than to increase; and (2) the greater the positive PM (or the negative PM), the lesser (or the greater) the coaches’ tendency to make a change in the organization of their teams. This investigation evidences that TBP can powerfully influence coaches’ perceptions and strategic decisions, and that coaches are more likely to be sensitive to negative events than to equivalent positive events.

The Integration of Fundamental and Technical Analysis in Predicting the Stock Price

Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis have long been used by investors as an analysis instrument to predict the stock price in gaining optimal return. The purpose of this study is to test the predictive ability of Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis model partially, then simultaneously test the integrated model of both analysis. The scope of this study includes the listed companies in LQ 45 stock exchange during 2007- 2016 period. The Fundamental Variable used in this study are Earning per Share (EPS), Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) and Return on Equity (ROE). The Technical Variable used is the price during the previous six months ( price t-0.5), Positive extreme price increase (D-Up), and Negative extreme price decline momentum (D-Down). The result of this study shows that Technical Model produces highest predictive ability compared to the other two models, while Integration model produces higher predictive ability compared to fundamental model. Using Integration model, EPS variable affects positively and significant, DPR variable affects negatively and insignificant, ROE variable, t-0.5, and D-Up affect positively and significant, while variable D down affects negatively and insignificant to the Stock Price. This result indicates that investors need to combine both analysis models i.e. fundamental and technical to generate optimal stock returns. 
 
 Keywords and phrase : Earning Per Share, Dividend Payout Ratio, Extreme Positive Momentum, Extreme Negative Momentum.