Positive Long-run Impact Research Articles

Foreign aid, workers’ remittances and economic growth in Jordan

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run impact of foreign aid and workers’ remittances on Jordanian economic growth using time series data for the period 1970–2014. Following the most recent literature, the author also assess whether economic policy enhances economic growth and whether aid effectiveness is conditional on levels of economic policy.Design/methodology/approachThe author employs unit root tests that allow for endogenously determined structural breaks (Perron, 1997) and properly utilize the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or bounds testing approach to cointegration by applying both the F- and the t-test statistics (Pesaran et al., 2001). The analysis is applied to 12 different models that incorporates the various types and sources of foreign aid.FindingsEmpirical results suggest that aid and its various components, and workers’ remittances have had a positive and significant long-run impact on economic growth. Empirical results also show: no evidence supporting the hypothesis that aid is only or more effective in spurring economic growth during periods of “good” macroeconomic policy, i.e., when Jordan has undertaken World Bank Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs); no robust evidence supporting the World Bank’s claim that SAPs are growth enhancing. Moreover, the author found strong empirical evidence suggesting that exports and human capital are also major determinants of long-run growth in Jordan.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough Jordan and the region at large have experienced periods of major political instability that may have had a varying impact on the economy, lack of a reliable and lengthy time series measure that accounts for political instability is not available to include in the study.Practical implicationsUsing cointegration analysis, our empirical evidence reveals that foreign aid, labor remittances, exports and human capital have had a robust positive long-run impact on economic growth. Hence, the Jordanian government should promote policies that encourage donor countries and agencies to further extend aid to Jordan. Moreover, policies that promote exports and facilitate labor mobility to neighboring countries should also be encouraged and promoted.Originality/valueDespite receiving a significant amount of foreign aid and labor remittances in the last 50 years, the author found no time series study that tested the long-run impact of these external financing sources on growth in Jordan. This study fills that gap and extends the analysis to test whether macroeconomic policy is growth enhancing and whether aid (and several of its components) are only effective or more effective in promoting growth during periods of “good” macroeconomic policy, i.e., when Jordan has undertaken a World Bank SAP.

Economic Diversification: Imperative for Trade and Industrial Policies in Nigeria

Abstract The sharp and continuous decline in crude oil prices since the mid-2014, along with the lackluster efforts at diversifying the sources of revenue and foreign exchange in the economy, incontrovertibly led to the recession that greeted Nigeria in the second quarter of 2016 as manifested by fiscal crisis. Hence this study examines the imperative of economic diversification in trade and industrial policies in Nigeria. In order to characterize the pattern of trade and industrial transformation in the diversification process, we adopted the augmented version of Kaldor’s first law which establishes a link between manufacturing output and economic growth. Based on annualized secondary time series, spanning from 1970 to 2015, obtained from the CBN statistical bulletin of various years, the study employed the contemporary econometric techniques of cointegration and error correction mechanism, within the framework of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model as proposed by Pesaran et al (2001) in achieving its objective. The results show that manufacturing output, crude petroleum and natural gas production, as well as mining production have significant positive longrun impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This implies that economic diversification-based industrial policies will definitely bring about the desired economic outcomes in Nigeria. We therefore conclude that trade and industrial policies should be geared towards diversification of the economy.

Growth in emerging economies: Is there a role for education?

We study the relationship between human capital and growth using a model which encompasses previous specifications and estimates the short and the long-run effects of human capital accumulation. We adopt an empirical framework which accounts for countries’ heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in a dynamic panel. Results for a sample of 14 Asian countries reveal a large and positive long-run impact of human capital on growth in the 1960–2013 period. Looking at different types of education we find that the diffusion of primary and secondary education has a positive long-run impact, while the long-run effect of tertiary education is negative. Low proportion of people educated at the tertiary level, lack of opportunities for highly educated workers and the brain drain phenomenon could explain this result. These results support policies directed towards increasing investments in primary and secondary education rather than focusing on a minority educated at the tertiary level.

Money demand under free banking: Switzerland 1851\u20131906

This paper studies money demand in Switzerland under free banking before the establishment of the Swiss National Bank. We find that, in addition to income, the banks’ balance-sheet-to-GDP ratio and the number of banks were important determinants of long-run money demand. The former variable also played an important role in the monetary adjustment process. We also detect a strong positive long-run impact of real income on the bank’s balance-sheet-total-to-GDP ratio and a strong long-run influence of real income and the interest rate spread on the number of banks.

THE EFFECTS OF INWARD AND OUTWARD FDI ON DOMESTIC INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE USING PANEL DATA OF ASEAN–8 COUNTRIES

In view of the changing FDI landscape, in particular, a drastic increase in out-ward FDI from developing and transition economies in recent years, this paper attempts to explore the possible impacts of outward FDI other than domestic savings and inward foreign direct investment on domestic investment. The major contribution of this study is that it is the first effort to empirically analyse the short- and long-run effects of the outward FDI using panel data of ASEAN–8 countries, which could provide useful policy implications for governments at both regional and international levels to achieve inclusive growth and sustainable development. Using pool mean group analysis, this paper finds that the gross domestic saving, inward FDI and outward FDI have a positive long-run impact on the gross domestic investment even though their long-run estimates are inelastic. The empirical study reveals that both inward FDI and outward FDI, to some extent, are complementary to the gross domestic investment.

Impact of Product Branding on Sales Revenue of Listed Companies in Ghana

This paper investigates short-run and long-run impact of product branding on sales revenues of Unilever (Ghana) Limited. The paper focused on Unilever (Ghana) Limited because it is one of the distribution companies listed on Ghana Stock Exchange with more strategic focus on product branding. Time series regression was used to investigate the impacts of product branding on sales revenue and data covered 1984-2014 financial years. The paper adopted VECM for impact estimation. The results indicate that product branding has long-run positive impact on sales revenue but did not have significant short-run impact on sales revenue. The paper recommends a continuous product branding to ensure sustainable growth in sales volumes and higher profits.

Natural gas consumption, income, urbanization, and CO2 emissions in China and India.

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of natural gas consumption, output, and urbanization on CO2 emission in China and India for the period, 1965-2013. A cointegraton test, which provides for endogenously determined structural breaks, has been applied to examine the long-run relationship and to investigate the presence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the two countries. The presence of causal relationship between the variables is also investigated. The findings show that there is a long-run relationship in the variables and natural gas, real GDP, and urbanization have long-run positive impact on emission in both countries. There is no evidence for EKC in China and India. The findings further suggest that there is a long-run feedback relationship between the variables. The policy inferences of these findings are discussed.

Firm-specific impacts of CO2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry

European Union carbon emissions allowances (EUA) price fluctuations can affect electricity companies' stock market values as these oscillations may change firms' profitability and thus investors' decisions. This outcome can differ not only contingent on the EU ETS Phase, but also on firms' generation mix. Moreover, stock markets may react differently to EUA increases in comparison to decreases, thus asymmetrically.By using daily data from January 2008 to July 2014, this article analyses long-run equilibrium relations and short-run interactions between the aggregated electricity industry stock market returns and EUA price changes. Moreover, we test if the relationship between EUA price variations and electricity stock returns is asymmetric and if the carbon price effect and the asymmetry are power firm-specific.Adding to earlier studies, we initially provide an inspection of the individual impact of EU ETS Phase II and on-going Phase III; followed by a comparative analysis between power firms which core activity relies on renewable energy sources and those whose sources are fundamentally non-renewable ones.A statistically significant positive long-run impact of EU ETS on the aggregated power sector stock market return is found concerning Phase II and works asymmetrically. Moreover, evidence is provided demonstrating that asymmetry and EUA effects are power firm-specific.

Determinants of farm income

Purpose – The recent fluctuations in farm income remind us of the boom-bust nature of the agricultural sector. To better understand these fluctuations in farm income, the purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between farm income and influential factors from 1964 to 2010 allowing for structural breaks in the data. Design/methodology/approach – The authors estimate error-correction models for an overarching model and several sub-models at different scales based on their relationship with farm income: micro, meso, and macro. The authors then provide a series of impulse response functions (IRFs) that combine short- and long-run impacts in a rigorous framework indicating the response of farm income to shocks from any of the explanatory variables. Findings – Results indicate that prices paid (PP) and received by farmers, technological change, interest and exchange rates (ERs), gross domestic product (GDP) and land prices all influence farm income. Results using IRFs show how increases in farm income arise from shocks to prices received and GDP; while PP, interest rates, and land prices have a negative impact on farm income. Technological progress and ERs switch from having a negative short-run impact, to a positive long-run impact. Originality/value – This paper takes a fresh look at the single, overarching model for farm income determinants. The authors break this model into three separate levels, with results indicating that these sub-groups perform better than the one overarching model of all variables.

The causality between FDI and sector-specific production in Turkey: evidence from threshold cointegration with regime shifts

ABSTRACTThis article considers bidirectional nonlinear cointegration relation between FDI and industrial output in Turkey. The data cover the monthly period 2005:1–2013:10 for the time series of total industrial production, 36 sub-industrial sectors’ production and FDI. Following nonlinear threshold cointegration and VECMs, the article yields that (i) total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions have positive long-run impact on FDI with significant error corrections, (ii) six sub-industrial productions have short-term influence on FDI, (iii) FDI has long-run positive impulse on total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions with some significant error corrections and (iv) FDI affects four sub-industrial productions in the short run as well as in the long run. The results of VECMs from (i) also reveal that the all short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in 10 typical regimes (Regime-1s) and in 5 extreme regimes (Regime-2s). Finally, the outcome of VECMs from (iii) yields that short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in two typical regimes and in four extreme regimes. Eventually, considering FDI’s positive impact in the short and long run, this article suggests that policymakers promote specifically the FDI inflows to the sectors of intermediate goods, manufacture of beverages, manufacture of rubber and plastic and manufacture of other nonmetallic mineral products.

Female labour force participation, infant mortality and fertility in Malaysia

In reviewing the population policy in 1984, the Malaysian government called for a major shift from family planning to family and human resource development to achieve an ultimate population of 70 million by 2100. However, regardless of the government's initiatives since 1984, Malaysia's fertility rate still declined. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationship and causality between female labour force participation rate, infant mortality rate and fertility in a developing country in Asia – Malaysia. We employ the unit root test which allows for two structural breaks, and the break dates are then used as dummy variables in the bounds testing procedure within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling approach and Granger-causality test. The results indicate that mortality changes have a significant and positive long-run impact on fertility rate and women's child bearing decisions are unaffected by their employment situation. In addition, we do not find evidence that presence of children hinders re-employment and continuous female employment.

Performance pay and information: Reducing child undernutrition in India

This paper provides evidence for the effectiveness of performance pay to government health workers and how performance pay interacts with demand-side information. In a controlled study covering 145 child day-care centers, I implement three separate treatments. First, I engineer an exogenous change in compensation for childcare workers from fixed wages to performance pay. Second, I only provide mothers with information without incentivizing the workers. Third, I combine the first two treatments. This helps us identify if performance pay and public information are complements or substitutes in reducing child malnutrition. I find that combining incentives to workers and information to mothers reduces weight-for-age malnutrition by 4.2 percentage points in 3 months, although individually the effects are negligible. This complementarity is shown to be driven by better mother–worker communication and the mother feeding more calorific food at home. There is also a sustained long-run positive impact of the combined treatment after the experiment concluded.

The long-run effect of trade on life expectancy in the United States: an empirical note

This note analyses the long-run impact of trade on population health by applying cointegration techniques to US time series data for the period 1960 to 2011. Despite the concerns of many commentators and observers, it is found that trade has a positive and significant long-run impact on population health, as measured by life expectancy.

The impact of financial development, income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy

This paper examines the long-run equilibrium and the existence and direction of a causal relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness for India. Our main contribution to the literature on Indian studies lies in the investigation of the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and using single country data. The results suggest that there is evidence on the long-run and causal relationships between carbon emissions, financial development, income, energy use and trade openness. Financial development has a long-run positive impact on carbon emissions, implying that financial development improves environmental degradation. Moreover, Granger causality test indicates a long-run unidirectional causality running from financial development to carbon emissions and energy use. The evidence suggests that financial system should take into account the environment aspect in their current operations. The results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision-makers in order to develop energy policies for India that contribute to the curbing of carbon emissions while preserving economic growth.

Performance Pay in Public Health: Evidence from a Controlled Experiment

This paper provides evidence for the effectiveness of performance pay to government health workers and how performance pay interacts with demand-side information. In a controlled experiment covering 145 child day-care centers, I implement three separate treatments. First, I engineer an exogenous change in compensation for childcare workers from fixed wages to performance pay. Second, I only provide mothers with information without incentivizing the workers. Third, I combine the first two treatments. This helps us identify if performance pay and public information are complements or substitutes in reducing child malnutrition. I find that combining incentives to workers and information to mothers reduces weight-for-age malnutrition by 4.2 percentage points in 3 months, although individually the effects are negligible. This complementarity is shown to be driven by better mother-worker communication and the mother feeding more calorific food at home. There is also a sustained long-run positive impact of the combined treatment after the experiment concluded.

Revisiting the Phillips Curve and the Lucas Critique

Many OECD countries are facing problems of high government debt and high unemployment. Consequently, a monetary stimulus is being increasingly viewed as a solution to curb the rising debt burden and stimulate economic growth. Some OECD countries are setting inflation target at 2% or even higher. In this paper we investigate the likely impact of inflation on unemployment for a panel of 10 highincome OECD countries, namely, Australia, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States. The period of study is 1970-2012. Results indicate a significantly positive long-run impact of inflation on unemployment. Granger causality indicates long-run bi-directional causality between inflation and unemployment. For the 10 OECD countries and the period of this study, the empirical findings support the Lucas critique: inflation and unemployment are positively correlated. A monetary stimulus, therefore, will most likely aggravate the unemployment scenario in the 10 OCED countries under study.

Trade Liberalization and FDI: A Cointegration and Causal Analysis for Benin

The period following mid-1970s marked the implementation of liberal trade policies by African economies to attract FDI for sustainable economic development. This paper estimates a structural VECM and investigates the long-run effectiveness of trade liberalization as an FDI policy measure for Benin. The Johansen cointegration test identifies significantly positive long-run impact of trade openness on FDI inflows into Benin. Granger causality establishes unidirectional causal link from trade openness to FDI inflows. Based on the cointegration and causal analysis, greater participation in international trade by Benin will expectedly increase FDI inflows into the economy.

Public investment and regional growth and convergence: Evidence from Greece

AbstractThis paper estimates the impact of public investment on regional economic growth and convergence at the NUTS 3 level in Greece. Using a new database of public expenditure per region for the period 1978–2007, it proposes a model which captures not just the impact of public investment in Greek prefectures, but also the spillover effects related to the existence of externalities from neighbouring regions. The results point to a positive long‐run impact of public investment per capita on regional economic growth – but not on convergence – which also generates considerable spillover effects. However, the returns vary according to different types of public investment, with education and infrastructure spillovers having the highest impact. In general, public investment externalities seem to be more relevant for regional growth than direct public investment in each region. Finally, the impact of different types of public investment in Greece is mediated by politics and political factors, but the effect of politics disappears once we control for political‐period‐specific spatial‐invariant variables.ResumenEste artículo estima el impacto de la inversión pública en el crecimiento económico regional y la convergencia a nivel NUTS 3 en Grecia. Haciendo uso de una nueva base de datos de gasto público por región para el periodo 1978–2007, se propone un modelo que identifica no solamente el impacto de la inversión pública en las prefecturas griegas, sino también los efectos de spillover relacionados con la existencia de externalidades procedentes de regiones vecinas. Los resultados apuntan a un impacto positivo a largo plazo de la inversión pública per cápita en el crecimiento económico regional – pero no en la convergencia – el cual genera unos efectos de spillover considerables. Sin embargo, los retornos varían de acuerdo con los diferentes tipos de inversión pública, siendo la educación y los spillovers de infraestructura los de mayor impacto. En general, las externalidades de inversión pública parecen tener una mayor relevancia para el crecimiento regional que la inversión pública directa en cada región. Para terminar, el impacto de los diferentes tipos de inversión pública en Grecia se ve influido por sus políticas y otros factores políticos, pero el efecto de las políticas desaparece una vez que se controlan las variables espacialmente‐invariantes de tipo político ligadas a un periodo específico.

Bargaining over productivity and wages when technical change is induced: implications for growth, distribution, and employment

I study a model of growth and income distribution in which workers and firms bargain a la Nash (Econometrica 18(2):155–162, 1950) over wages and productivity gains, taking into account the trade-offs faced by firms in choosing factor-augmenting technologies. The aggregate environment resulting from self-interested, objective function-maximizing decision rules on wages, productivity gains, savings and investment, is described by a two-dimensional dynamical system in the employment rate and output/capital ratio. The economy converges cyclically to a long-run equilibrium involving a Harrod-neutral profile of technical change, a constant rate of employment of labor, and constant input shares. The type of oscillations predicted by the model is qualitatively consistent with the available data on the United States (1963–2003), replicates the dynamics found in earlier models of growth cycles such as Goodwin (A growth cycle, in C.H. Feinstein (ed). Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1967. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1967); Shah and Desai (Econ J 91:1006–1010, 1981); van der Ploeg (J Macroecon 9:1–12, 1987); Flaschel (J Econ: Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie 44:63–69, 1984) and Sportelli (J Econ: Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie 61(1):35–64, 1995), and can be verified numerically in simulations. Institutional change, as captured by variations in workers’ bargaining power, has a positive effect on the long-run rate of growth of output per worker but a negative effect on long-run employment. Economic policy can also affect the growth and distribution pattern through changes in the unemployment compensation, which also have a positive long-run impact on labor productivity growth but a negative long-run impact on employment. In both cases, employment can overshoot its new equilibrium value along the transitional dynamics.

Threshold cointegration and causality relationship between energy use and growth in seven African countries

The paper investigates the long-run and the causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for seven Sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1970–2007. Using the Gregory and Hansen (1996a, 1996b) testing approach to threshold cointegration, we find that energy consumption is cointegrated with economic growth in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa. Moreover, this test suggests that economic growth has a significant positive long-run impact on energy consumption in these countries before 1988 and this effect becomes negative after 1988 in Ghana and South Africa. Furthermore, causality tests suggest bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real GDP in Cote d'Ivoire and unidirectional causality running from real GDP to energy usage in the case of Congo and Ghana.