Positive Herds Research Articles

Epidemiological and genetic characterization of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, from 2015 to 2017.

Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus (PEDV) is a highly contagious virus. PED was first identified in 2008 and has greatly affected the Vietnamese pig production economy. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological and genetic characteristics of PEDV in piglet herds in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Diarrheal stool and intestinal samples from 2262 piglets from 191 herds in five provinces were collected to test for the presence of PEDV. Ten PEDV strains were randomly selected for sequencing, and four genes encoding PEDV structural proteins were analyzed. The rates of herds and samples positive for PEDV were 27.23% and 27.72%, respectively. In positive herds, the morbidity and mortality of PEDV-positive piglets were 97.97% and 79.06%, respectively, with most of the infected piglets under 7 days of age. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the 10 PEDV strains from this study clustered with genotype G2 strains from Vietnam and neighboring countries. Many amino acid substitutions were identified in important antigenic regions in the spike protein of the 10 strains when compared to four PEDV vaccine strains. This study provides novel insights into the epidemiology and genetic diversity of circulating PEDV strains, which could facilitate the development of an appropriate and proactive strategy for controlling PED.

Herd and animal level prevalences and risk factors for Neospora caninum infection in cattle in the state of Paraíba, northeastern Brazil.

Bovine neosporosis is a globally important disease, causing abortions and significant economic losses. In Brazil, studies on neosporosis in cattle are few and based on limited samples and/or from limited areas. We aimed to determine the herd and animal levels seroprevalence and associated factors for Neospora caninum infections in cattle from the state of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil, using a planned sampling. Herds (n=434) and cows aged ≥24months (n=1891) were randomly selected, and serum samples were tested with the immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT) using as cut-off point the antibody titer 200. Herd-level and animal-level seroprevalences were 17.8% (95% CI=14.3%-21.8%) and 18.1% (95% CI=14.7%-22.1%), respectively. The factors associated with N. caninum infection were farm located in the Sertão mesoregion (Prevalence ratio [PR]=2.37), mixed production (PR=1.64), herd size of 34-111 animals (PR=3.50) and herd size >111 animals (PR=6.14). The results indicate high N. caninum circulation in the bovine population of the state of Paraíba, semiarid of Brazil, mainly in the Sertão mesoregion, where the highest apparent herd and animal-level prevalences of positive herds were identified. Control strategies should be adopted to mitigate the impact of disease on cattle production, as well as it's suggested the encouragement of conducting surveys in wildlife from Caatinga biome, mainly canids, to provide information on the importance of these animals on the epidemiology of bovine neosporosis.

PRRSV Detection by qPCR on Serum Samples Collected in Due-to-Wean Piglets in Five Positive Stable Breeding Herds Following a Sow Mass Vaccination with a Modified Live Vaccine: A Descriptive Study

Data concerning PRRSV-1 vaccine virus strains dissemination within vaccinated sow herds are scarce. However, it is a big concern for swine practitioners when designing the PRRSV diagnostics strategy in vaccinated farms. At the same time, the possibility of vaccine virus transmission from sows to their offspring is important to have in mind in order to limit the risk of recombination between different PPRSV-1 modified live virus vaccine (MLV1) when both sows and piglets have to be vaccinated. This study was conducted in five PRRSV-stable breeding herds. The selected farms presented different characteristics regarding production parameters and biosecurity management practices in order to be, as much as possible, representative of French swine production herds. In four different batches following a sow mass vaccination with a PRRSV-1 modified live virus vaccine (ReproCyc® PRRS EU, Boehringer Ingelheim, Ingelheim, Germany), we failed to detect the vaccine virus in due-to-wean piglets in all of the herds. This should mean that the dissemination of the vaccinal strain is a rare event, even just after a sow vaccination, at least for the vaccine tested in our study.

Risk factors associated with sow mortality in breeding herds under one production system in the Midwestern United States.

Sow mortality has significantly increased throughout the world over the past several years, and it is a growing concern to the global swine industry. Sow mortality increases economic losses, including higher replacement rates, affects employees' morale, and raises concerns about animal well-being and sustainability. This study aimed to assess herd-level risk factors associated with sow mortality in a large swine production system in the Midwestern United States. This retrospective observational study used available production, health, nutritional, and management information between July 2019 and December 2021. A Poisson mixed regression model was used to identify the risk factors and to build a multivariate model using the weekly mortality rate per 1000 sows as the outcome. Different models were used to identify the risk factors according to this study's main reasons for sow mortality (total death, sudden death, lameness, and prolapse). The main reported causes of sow mortality were sudden death (31.22 %), lameness (28.78 %), prolapse (28.02 %), and other causes (11.99 %). The median (25th-75th percentile) distribution of the crude sow mortality rate/1000 sows was 3.37 (2.19 - 4.16). Breeding herds classified as epidemic for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) were associated with higher total death, sudden death, and lameness death. Open pen gestation was associated with a higher total death and lameness compared with stalls. Pulses of feed medication was associated with lower sow mortality rate for all outcomes. Farms not performing bump feeding were associated with higher sow mortality due to lameness and prolapses, while Senecavirus A (SVA)-positive herds were associated with a higher mortality rate for total deaths and deaths due to lameness. Disease interactions (herds Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae positive and epidemic for PRRSV; SVA positive herds and epidemic for PRRSV) were associated with higher mortality rates compared to farms with single disease status. This study identified and measured the major risk factors associated with total sow mortality rate, sudden deaths, lameness deaths, and prolapse deaths in breeding herds under field conditions.

Estimation of a Within-Herd Transmission Rate for African Swine Fever in Vietnam

We describe results from a panel study in which pigs from a 17-sow African swine fever (ASF) positive herd in Thái Bình province, Vietnam, were followed over time to record the date of onset of ASF signs and the date of death from ASF. Our objectives were to (1) fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed disease model to the data with transmission coefficients estimated using approximate Bayesian computation; (2) provide commentary on how a model of this type might be used to provide decision support for disease control authorities. For the outbreak in this herd, the median of the average latent period was 10 days (95% HPD (highest posterior density interval): 2 to 19 days), and the median of the average duration of infectiousness was 3 days (95% HPD: 2 to 4 days). The estimated median for the transmission coefficient was 3.3 (95% HPD: 0.4 to 8.9) infectious contacts per ASF-infectious pig per day. The estimated median for the basic reproductive number, R0, was 10 (95% HPD: 1.1 to 30). Our estimates of the basic reproductive number R0 were greater than estimates of R0 for ASF reported previously. The results presented in this study may be used to estimate the number of pigs expected to be showing clinical signs at a given number of days following an estimated incursion date. This will allow sample size calculations, with or without adjustment to account for less than perfect sensitivity of clinical examination, to be used to determine the appropriate number of pigs to examine to detect at least one with the disease. A second use of the results of this study would be to inform the equation-based within-herd spread components of stochastic agent-based and hybrid simulation models of ASF.

Prevalence and risk factors of Brachyspira spp. in pig herds with a history of diarrhoea in six European countries

Swine dysentery and porcine intestinal spirochaetosis caused by Brachyspira (B.) hyodysenteriae and B. pilosicoli, respectively, are important diseases in swine production worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of both pathogens in farms with a history of diarrhoea within the last 12 months in Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and United Kingdom. In addition, risk factors for their prevalence and correlations between presence of different Brachyspira spp. and Lawsonia intracellularis were investigated. Therefore, faecal samples of 6355 nursery to finishing pigs out of 144 herds were sampled in 2017/2018 during a prevalence study on Lawsonia intracellularis, followed by polymerase chain reaction analysis for Brachyspira spp. detection. Herd prevalence differed significantly between countries, from 4.2% to 45.8% for B. hyodysenteriae and 8.3–87.5% for B. pilosicoli, respectively (p < 0.01). For the within-herd prevalence (in positive herds), these values ranged from 2.2% to 27.0% for B. hyodysenteriae and 3.3–50.8% for B. pilosicoli. Mixed infections occurred in 34.1% and 58.7% of B. hyodysenteriae positive samples with Lawsonia intracellularis or B. pilosicoli, respectively. In 43.2% of B. pilosicoli positive samples, Lawsonia intracellularis was detected simultaneously. Overall, nursery pigs were significantly less often positive for one of the pathogens than growing or finishing pigs (p < 0.001). The absence of gastrointestinal problems like diarrhoea, routine use of antimicrobials and well performed biosecurity measures were some of the factors associated with lower detection rate of Brachyspira spp. Surprisingly, deworming of different age categories also showed associations with the detection of Brachyspira spp. which, however, were not always equally directed, and therefore require further investigations. The only risk factor significant for both Brachyspira spp. was the median number of ≥ 30 nursery pigs per pen after weaning, compared to smaller group sizes. Both pathogens were detected with varying frequency between the six European countries. This should be considered in the probability of disease and in case of transnational transport, to prevent spread of pathogens. In addition, the frequent presence of mixed infections in some countries should be taken into account in diagnostics. The most important protective factors against Brachyspira spp. presence on farm are biosecurity measures, while potential new factors such as deworming still require further investigation.

Coxiella burnetii in dairy cattle herd: farming practices and infection dynamics

Abstract Q fever is a widespread disease affecting reproduction in dairy cattle. Several risk factors can increase the possibility of the herd becoming infected and the persistence of infection. The aim of this study was to characterise the dynamics of C. burnetii infection in affected herds and to evaluate reproduction problems and risk factors using a questionnaire within infected and infection-free dairy herds. In total, 25 farms that were serologically positive or shedding C. burnetii DNA in milk and 14 C. burnetii infection-free farms in Latvia answered the questionnaire. Ten positive herds were studied by testing individual blood and milk samples from up to 10 animals at two times separated by 7.5 to 13 months. The number of serologically positive and suspicious animals was higher in the second sampling even though several animals were culled. In the positive herds, the percentage of dystocia, stillborn calves and abortions during the last year was significantly (p=0.001; 0.01; 0.005, respectively) higher than in the negative herds. Several significant factors were found for the presence of Q fever infection, such as the herd size, the regional population density of ruminants, artificial ventilation systems, and frequent farm visitors. Deratisation was less practised in the negative farms and the presence of ticks was observed more often in the negative farms. Only two identified risk factors can be mitigated – the ventilation system and frequent farm visitors. The other factors cannot be changed arbitrarily but they have to be taken into account by decision makers.

Evaluation of internal farm biosecurity measures combined with sow vaccination to prevent influenza A virus infection in groups of due-to-wean pigs

BackgroundInfluenza A virus (IAV) is an important respiratory pathogen of pigs that affects pig health, well-being and productivity, has zoonotic potential, and has significant economic impact for producers. The ultimate goal is to maintain herds free from IAV. Due to the probability of IAV introduction into the herds, it is also desirable for herds to have some immunity to the virus. In this study, we evaluated a protocol that combined sow vaccination with the implementation of internal biosecurity practices during the pre-weaning period with the goal to wean IAV negative pigs.Five IAV positive breeding herds were vaccinated twice, 3 weeks apart with a herd-specific autogenous vaccine. For the subsequent 8 weeks, a biosecurity protocol was maintained, consisting of no pig movements after 3 days of age, no use of nurse sows, workers changing disposable gloves between litters, workers not stepping into farrowing crates, and daily disinfection of tools and materials used to handle pigs.ResultsFollowing these interventions, four of the five treatment farms had significant reductions in IAV detection (p value < 0.05). Three of the farms tested negative at all sampling points post-intervention and one farm had a 21% reduction in IAV positivity.ConclusionsThis study indicates that a protocol that combines sow vaccination and enhanced biosecurity practices may limit IAV transmission among piglets and enable the weaning of groups of pigs free from the virus.

A case–control study regarding factors associated with digital dermatitis in Norwegian dairy herds

BackgroundDigital dermatitis (DD) is a contagious bovine foot disease causing painful lesions, lameness, and reduced animal welfare. Previous studies indicate a complex aetiology of the disease. The aim of this study was to compare DD negative and DD positive herds to identify factors associated with DD in Norwegian dairy herds by analysing data obtained in a questionnaire and data recorded in the Norwegian Dairy Herd Recording System (NDHRS). The questionnaire was e-mailed to the owners of all 380 herds recorded with DD in 2019 and to 1530 randomly selected herds with no recordings of DD. Altogether 559 dairy herds were included in the final study population, of which 113 was classified as DD positive (≥ one cow recorded with DD in NDHRS) and 446 as DD negative. When stratified by housing system, the ratio between DD positive and negative herds was 108/281 in free stalls and 5/165 in tie stalls. Multilevel logistic regression was used to model the association between potential risk factors and variables related to the detection and diagnosis of DD, and the outcome in the free-stall population. Geographical area (county) was included in the model as a random effect.ResultsIn the final study population 108/113 (96%) of the DD positive herds were housed in free stalls versus 5/113 (4%) in tie stalls. The free-stall herds’ DD status was associated with purchase of cattle during the last 5 years (baseline: 0 animals, OR = 2.30 for category 12–27 animals, OR = 4.34 for 28–52 animals, and OR = 5.39 for ≥ 53 animals). The DD status was also associated with claw trimming frequency (Baseline: 1 < 2/year, OR = 0.41 for category < 1/year, and OR = 4.09 for ≥ 3/year), whether the claw trimming was done by a certified professional trimmer or not (baseline: ≤ 90% of the cows, OR = 3.98 for category ≥ 90% of the cows), cleaning of feet in the chute before trimming (baseline: no cleaning, OR = 1.98 for category cleaning), and alley flooring (baseline: slatted floor, OR = 2.36 for category solid floor).ConclusionsDigital dermatitis was far more frequent in Norwegian dairy herds housed in free stalls versus those housed in tie stalls. In the free-stall herds purchase of cattle, increasing trimming frequency, use of certified professional trimmer, cleaning of the feet in the chute, and solid flooring in the alleys were associated with increased odds of recorded DD.

Influenza A virus circulation in backyard animals in the Pacific coast of Guatemala, 2013-2014.

Due to their documented epidemiological relevance as hosts for influenza A viruses (IAV), humans, poultry and pigs in backyard production systems (BPS) within wetlands could be key to the emergence of novel IAV variants able to transmit between humans or animals. To better understand the circulation of IAV at the human-animal interface of BPS within wetlands, we studied IAV in backyard duck flocks and pig herds in the Pacific Coast of Guatemala. From April 2013 to October 2014, we estimated the monthly IAV per cent seropositive and viral positive flocks and herds in two resource-limited communities. We detected antibodies in sera against the IAV nucleoprotein through ELISA. We also detected IAV viral RNA in respiratory (ducks and pigs) and cloacal (ducks) swabs through rRT-PCR directed at the matrix gene. We attempted viral isolation in eggs or MDCK cells followed by sequencing from swabs positive for IAV. During our study period, IAV seropositivity in duck flocks was 38%, and viral positivity was 23% (n=86 BPS sampled). IAV seropositivity in pig herds was 42%, and viral positivity was 20% (n=90 BPS sampled). Both flocks and herds had detectable antibodies against IAV mostly year-round, and IAV was detected in several months. We isolated an H3N2 virus from one pig sampled at the end of 2013. Standard nucleotide BLAST searches indicate that the isolated virus was similar to seasonal viruses circulating in humans, suggesting human-to-pig transmission. Our data show concurrent circulation of IAV in multiple species of poultry and pigs that were commingled in rudimentary conditions in proximity to humans, but no significant risk factors could be identified.

Evaluation of the MilA ELISA for the diagnosis of herd infection with Mycoplasma bovis using bulk tank milk and estimation of the prevalence of M. bovis in Australia

Infection with Mycoplasma bovis has been identified as a growing threat in dairy industries worldwide and there is an urgent need for an inexpensive and accurate herd-level screening tool to identify herds that have been exposed to M. bovis. This study aimed to evaluate the use of the MilA ELISA for testing bulk tank milk (BTM) samples for antibodies against M. bovis and estimate a suitable cut-off and diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) for this assay. An optimal cut-off was then applied for investigating the geographical and seasonal distribution of infection with M. bovis in Australia. A total of 5554 BTM samples from 2683 dairy herds were collected during March, August and December 2017. BTM samples were tested in the MilA ELISA and a cut-off of 29 antibody units (AU) was estimated to be optimal using Bayesian latent class analysis which makes no assumption about the true disease status of herds under investigation. At this cut-off, the DSe and DSp were estimated to be 96.6% (95% highest probability density [HPD] interval: 87.0, 99.8) and 94.2% (95% HPD: 89.9, 97.4), respectively. The diagnostic specifications were found to vary markedly with stage of the production cycle, suggesting that targeted sampling was needed to maximize accuracy. We also found distinct differences in the apparent prevalence of M. bovis in different dairying regions, as well as seasonal variation. The highest apparent prevalence of M. bovis was observed in samples collected in March and an overall drop in the proportion of positive herds was seen from March to December. Overall, this study provides insights into the dynamics of BTM antibodies against M. bovis in Australian dairy herds and how the MilA ELISA can be applied for bulk tank milk testing.

Distribution, genetic heterogeneity, and antimicrobial susceptibility of Brachyspira pilosicoli in Swiss pig herds

Brachyspira (B.) pilosicoli is a bacterium causing porcine intestinal spirochaetosis, a disease characterized by diarrhoea and depressed growth rates especially in nursery and fattening pigs. Knowledge of the epidemiology and antimicrobial susceptibility of this pathogen is limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyse the distribution, genetic heterogeneity, and antimicrobial susceptibility of B. pilosicoli field isolates from Swiss pig farms. Faecal swabs of 693 animals originating from 156 herds were analysed for the presence of Brachyspira spp. using culture and polymerase chain reaction identification. Further characterisation was performed using multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and broth dilution antimicrobial susceptibility testing. With 52.6% positive herds, B. pilosicoli could be frequently isolated from herds with animals suffering from diarrhoea. In herds with animals without clinical signs of diarrhoea, detection was significantly less frequent with only 10.5% positive herds (p 0.001). Among 80 isolates used for typing, genetic heterogeneity was observed with 44 different sequence types (ST) which often differed from herd to herd. No predominant ST was observed. More than 73.0% of the 41 B. pilosicoli isolates analysed, showed minimal inhibitory concentration values above the wild type cut-off values for lincomycin, tylvalosin and/ or tylosin. For tiamulin, valnemulin and doxycycline, this was the case in 48.8%, 43.9% and 36.6%, respectively. In conclusion, a diverse population of B. pilosicoli exhibited decreased susceptibility to antimicrobials used against Brachyspira infections. Monitoring of resistance in Brachyspira spp. is highly recommended to support targeted use of antimicrobials in pigs.

Seroprevalence of Mycoplasma bovis in bulk milk samples in Irish dairy herds and risk factors associated with herd seropositive status

Mycoplasma bovis is a serious disease of cattle worldwide; mastitis, pneumonia, and arthritis are particularly important clinical presentations in dairy herds. Mycoplasma bovis was first identified in Ireland in 1994, and the reporting of Mycoplasma-associated disease has substantially increased over the last 5 years. Despite the presumed endemic nature of M. bovis in Ireland, there is a paucity of data on the prevalence of infection, and the effect of this disease on the dairy industry. The aim of this observational study was to estimate apparent herd prevalence for M. bovis in Irish dairy herds using routinely collected bulk milk surveillance samples and to assess risk factors for herd seropositivity. In autumn 2018, 1,500 herds out of the 16,858 herds that submitted bulk tank milk (BTM) samples to the Department of Agriculture testing laboratory for routine surveillance were randomly selected for further testing. A final data set of 1,313 sampled herds with a BTM ELISA result were used for the analysis. Testing was conducted using an indirect ELISA kit (ID Screen Mycoplasma bovis). Herd-level risk factors were used as explanatory variables to determine potential risk factors associated with positive herd status (reflecting past or current exposure to M. bovis). A total of 588 of the 1,313 BTM samples were positive to M. bovis, providing an apparent herd prevalence of 0.45 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.47) in Irish dairy herds in autumn 2018. Multivariable analysis was conducted using logistic regression. The final model identified herd size, the number of neighboring farms, in-degree and county as statistically significant risk factors for herd BTM seropositivity to M. bovis. The results suggest a high apparent herd prevalence of seropositivity to M. bovis, and evidence that M. bovis infection is now endemic in the Irish dairy sector. In addition, risk factors identified are closely aligned to what we would expect of an infectious disease. Awareness raising and education about this important disease is warranted given the widespread nature of exposure and likely infection in Irish herds. Further work on the validation of diagnostic tests for herd-level diagnosis should be undertaken as a matter of priority.

Risk factors for detection of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in low-risk herds during the latter stages of Ireland’s eradication programme

BackgroundA national programme to eradicate bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) has been in place in Ireland since 2013. To inform decision making in the end stages of eradication, and support the development of post-eradication surveillance strategies, an understanding of risks of infection in a low prevalence system is required. MethodsA case-control study design was implemented. The study population comprised bovine herds that had calves born and tested negative for BVD virus (BVDV) every year from 2013 to 2019 (n = 46,219 herds). We defined cases as herds which had one or more test positive calves for the first time in 2019 (n = 204). Controls (n = 816) were randomly sampled from the herds which remained test negative in 2019. The effects of herd size, management system, inward movements, including those of potential trojan dams (pregnant animals brought into the herd that could potentially be carrying infected calves in utero), and proximity to herds testing positive in the preceding year, were investigated. Network analysis approaches were used to generate variables measuring connections with test positive herds through inward cattle movements. A generalised linear mixed model, including a county-level random effect, was used to explore these risk factors. ResultsOur final model retained ln (herd size) (Odds Ratio (95% CI): 1.72 (1.40, 2.12)), distance from test positive herds (0.54 (0.44, 0.66) for each extra land-parcel boundary crossed to reach the closest herd which tested positive the preceding year), and ln (potential trojan dams + 1) (1.29 (1.05, 1.60)). The same variables were retained in the model where herds with confirmed transient infections only (n = 25) were excluded. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that care with biosecurity at farm boundaries and visitors and equipment entering the farm, and avoidance or careful risk assessment of purchasing potentially pregnant animals, may help prevent introduction of BVDV to low-risk herds. At policy level, consideration of herd size, proximity to test positive herds and purchasing patterns of potentially pregnant cattle may help target surveillance measures towards the end of the eradication programme.

Environmental detection of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae in breed-to-wean farms

There is a need to develop cost-effective and non-invasive approaches to sample large populations to evaluate the disease status of breeding herds. In this study we assessed the detection of the M. hyopneumoniae genetic material in environmental surfaces and air of farrowing rooms, and skin (udder, snout and vagina) of lactating sows at weaning, in farms having different M. hyopneumoniae infection status (negative, positive sub-clinically infected and positive clinically affected). Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae was detected in air, air deposition particles, dam and stall surfaces of the positive clinically affected herd. Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae could only be detected in dam and stall surfaces in sub-clinically infected herds. Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae was not detected in all samples collected in the negative herd. The cycle threshold of the positive PCR samples were not statistically different between sample types or farms. However, a significant difference (p < 0.05) was observed in the percentage of positive samples between the positive clinically affected farm and the rest. Likewise, M. hyopneumoniae was detected in the environment and surfaces at weaning in positive breeding herds. Further testing and validation is recommended for environmental and surface samples before they can be employed as part of the M. hyopneumoniae diagnostic process. In addition, results from this study highlight potential sources of M. hyopneumoniae infection for piglets in breeding herds, especially during an outbreak.

Capacity of a Bayesian model to detect infected herds using disease dynamics and risk factor information from surveillance programmes: A simulation study

Control programmes against non-regulated infectious diseases of farm animals are widely implemented. Different control programmes have different definitions of “freedom from infection” which can lead to difficulties when trading animals between countries. When a disease is still present, in order to identify herds that are safe to trade with, estimating herd-level probabilities of being infected when classified “free from infection” using field data is of major interest. Our objective was to evaluate the capacity of a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model, which computes a herd-level probability of being infected, to detect infected herds compared to using test results only. Herd-level risk factors, infection dynamics and associated test results were simulated in a population of herds, for a wide range of realistic infection contexts and test characteristics. The model was used to predict the infection status of each herd from longitudinal data: a simulated risk factor and a simulated test result. Two different indexes were used to categorize herds from the probability of being infected into a herd predicted status. The model predictive performances were evaluated using the simulated herd status as the gold standard. The model detected more infected herds than a single final test in 85 % of the scenarios which converged. The proportion of infected herds additionally detected by the model, compared to test results alone, varied depending on the context. It was higher in a context of a low herd test sensitivity. On average, around 20 %, for high test sensitivity scenarios, and 40 %, for low test sensitivity scenarios, of infected herds that were undetected by the test were accurately classified as infected by the model. Model convergence did not occur for 39 % of the scenarios, mainly in association with low herd test sensitivity. Detection of additional newly infected herds was always associated with an increased number of false positive herds (except for one scenario). The number of false positive herds was lower for scenarios with low herd test sensitivity and moderate to high incidence and prevalence. These results highlight the benefit of the model, in particular for control programmes with infection present at an endemic level in a population and reliance on test(s) of low sensitivity.

Dairy Sheep Played a Minor Role in the 2005-2010 Human Q Fever Outbreak in The Netherlands Compared to Dairy Goats.

Q fever is an almost ubiquitous zoonosis caused by Coxiella burnetii. This organism infects several animal species, as well as humans, and domestic ruminants like cattle, sheep and goats are an important animal reservoir of C. burnetii. In 2007, a sudden rise in notified human Q fever cases occurred in The Netherlands, and by the end of 2009, more than 3500 human Q fever patients had been notified. Dairy sheep and dairy goats were suspected to play a causal role in this human Q fever outbreak, and several measures were taken, aiming at a reduction of C. burnetii shedding by infected small ruminants, in order to reduce environmental contamination and thus human exposure. One of the first measures was compulsory notification of more than five percent abortion within thirty days for dairy sheep and dairy goat farms, starting 12 June 2008. After notification, an official farm inspection took place, and laboratory investigations were performed aiming at ruling out or demonstrating a causal role of C. burnetii. These measures were effective, and the number of human Q fever cases decreased; levels are currently the same as they were prior to 2007. The effect of these measures was monitored using a bulk tank milk (BTM) PCR and an antibody ELISA. The percentage PCR positive dairy herds and flocks decreased over time, and dairy sheep flocks tested PCR positive significantly less often and became PCR negative earlier compared to dairy goat herds. Although there was no difference in the percentage of dairy goat and dairy sheep farms with a C. burnetii abortion outbreak, the total number of shedding dairy sheep was much lower than the number of shedding dairy goats. Combined with the fact that Q fever patients lived mainly in the proximity of infected dairy goat farms and that no Q fever patients could be linked directly to dairy sheep farms, although this may have happened in individual cases, we conclude that dairy sheep did not play a major role in the Dutch Q fever outbreak. BTM monitoring using both a PCR and an ELISA is essential to determine a potential C. burnetii risk, not only for The Netherlands but for other countries with small ruminant dairy industries.

Spatial and environmental analysis of Mycobacterium avium infected dairies in Antioquía (Colombia)

The present study aimed to describe the spatial distribution of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in dairy herds, and to detail environmental variables taken as refer- ence of the physical background of the study area, specifically those related to MAP-qPCR positive herds located in six municipalities of the northern region of the Province of Antioquia (Colombia), based on environmental sampling and qPCR analysis. The study herds (n = 386) were located in 63 different districts from six municipalities. Participant herds were visited once between June and October (2016) to collect an environmental sample, and iden- tification of MAP was achieved using a duplex quantitative real-time PCR method. Rainfall trends, day and nighttime surface temperature, and vegetation cover index were taken as environmental references of the physical background of the study area. In addition, distribution maps of MAP-qPCR positive and negative herds, as well as maps of temperature variations and vegetation cover, were constructed. As a result, there was an increase in MAP-positive herds in the North-West, South, and Southeast of the study area. An overall high rainfall regime was found and day- and nighttime surface temperatures showed important variations during sampling months. No evidence of management of the vegetation cover was found, in both pastures and areas with native vegetation, except for a conservancy area. In conclusion, the general environmental conditions, where the detection of MAP-positive herds is most likely to happen, were reported herein, considering approaches using the same (or a very ap- proximate) sample collection and handling, and molecular detection method.

Epidemiological and geospatial characterization of goat leptospirosis in Northeast region of Brazil

The objective of this survey was to determine the seroprevalence of Leptospira spp., the most frequent serogroups, and the geospatial distribution in goats in seven states in the Northeast region of Brazil. Samples (n = 4,718) were collected in the states of Alagoas, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraíba, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe and were analyzed using the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) with a cut-off point of 1:100. Additionally, geographic data were analyzed to construct epidemiological maps for characterization of leptospirosis in the municipalities with greater importance for goat farming in each state. Of the sampled animals, 17.7% were serologically reactive for Leptospira spp. Animal-level prevalence ranged within the states, from 7.07% (Alagoas) to 30.23% (Paraíba) with statistical difference (P < 0.001). For herds, 83.4% had at least one serologically reactive animal. Paraíba had the highest herd-level prevalence (98.36%) and Piauí the lowest (65.91%) (P < 0.001). The states of Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, and Sergipe had 91.18%, 69.64%, and 92.59% of positive herds, respectively. The most frequently identified serogroups were Autumnalis (23.06%) and Australis (20.98%) and titers ranged from 100 to 1,600. In conclusion, leptospirosis is present in states in the Northeast region of Brazil, especially in environments with dry and deforested areas, demonstrating a possible adaptation of the infectious agent to areas of adverse climates and an apparent interspecies transmission. Also, it was possible to verify the circulation of serogroups that may be adapted to small ruminants maintained in semiarid conditions, causing the asymptomatic disease with reproductive losses.

Use of scenario tree modelling to plan freedom from infection surveillance: Mycoplasma bovis in New Zealand

Since mid-2018, the New Zealand (NZ) Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has been operating an eradication program for an incursion of Mycoplasma bovis. Although NZ is still delimiting the outbreak, consideration is being given to how freedom from M. bovis will be demonstrated. Rapid demonstration of freedom will minimise the length of the program, significantly reducing its financial burden. This collaborative research was undertaken to help inform planning of surveillance to demonstrate freedom after M. bovis is believed eradicated.Scenario tree modelling (STM) involves assimilating multiple surveillance system components to determine whether disease is absent. STM has infrequently been used to plan appropriate surveillance but this was the approach used here. A stochastic simulation model was implemented in R. The model represented the NZ commercial dairy and non-dairy cattle industries and the current surveillance components that are also planned to be used to gather evidence of absence of M. bovis once it is eradicated. Different surveillance intensities and risk based versus random surveillance were simulated and compared for probability of freedom, financial cost of sampling and testing and the time to demonstrate freedom.The results indicate that the current surveillance components will enable demonstration of freedom. Surveillance components included bulk tank milk testing, herd testing and testing at meat processing plants, predominantly using an imperfect ELISA. Several combinations of surveillance components appeared most efficient achieving >95 % confidence of freedom over 2–4 years, whilst sampling 4–7 % of the non-dairy herds and less than 25 % of dairy herds annually. The results indicate that surveillance intensity can be lower than is currently occurring to support the delimiting phase, thereby saving significant resources in the post eradication phase (proof of freedom phases).Further consideration is required to enable the assumption of 100 % herd specificity made in the model to be achieved. The ELISA used is very specific, but will yield some false positives that must be resolved to their true status. This may occur for example through modified diagnostic test interpretation (e.g. cut point optimisation at individual and herd level) or resolution of putative false positive herds with epidemiological investigation.In conclusion this research demonstrates the utility of STM for planning surveillance programs, and in this instance has highlighted efficient and effective surveillance components for demonstrating freedom from M. bovis in NZ. It also highlights the need to achieve 100 % specificity for M. bovis in herds tested during the proof of freedom phases.