Positive Effect Of Temperature Research Articles

The effect of weather and climate on dengue outbreak risk in Peru, 2000-2018: A time-series analysis.

BackgroundDengue fever is the most common arboviral disease in humans, with an estimated 50-100 million annual infections worldwide. Dengue fever cases have increased substantially in the past four decades, driven largely by anthropogenic factors including climate change. More than half the population of Peru is at risk of dengue infection and due to its geography, Peru is also particularly sensitive to the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Determining the effect of ENSO on the risk for dengue outbreaks is of particular public health relevance and may also be applicable to other Aedes-vectored viruses.MethodsWe conducted a time-series analysis at the level of the district-month, using surveillance data collected from January 2000 to September 2018 from all districts with a mean elevation suitable to survival of the mosquito vector (<2,500m), and ENSO and weather data from publicly-available datasets maintained by national and international agencies. We took a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to address correlation in space, and B-splines with four knots per year to address correlation in time. We furthermore conducted subgroup analyses by season and natural region.ResultsWe detected a positive and significant effect of temperature (°C, RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.13, 1.15, adjusted for precipitation) and ENSO (ICEN index: RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.15, 1.20; ONI index: RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02, 1.07) on outbreak risk, but no evidence of a strong effect for precipitation after adjustment for temperature. Both natural region and season were found to be significant effect modifiers of the ENSO-dengue effect, with the effect of ENSO being stronger in the summer and the Selva Alta and Costa regions, compared with winter and Selva Baja and Sierra regions.ConclusionsOur results provide strong evidence that temperature and ENSO have significant effects on dengue outbreaks in Peru, however these results interact with region and season, and are stronger for local ENSO impacts than remote ENSO impacts. These findings support optimization of a dengue early warning system based on local weather and climate monitoring, including where and when to deploy such a system and parameterization of ENSO events, and provide high-precision effect estimates for future climate and dengue modeling efforts.

The Effect of Temperature on the Cation‐Promoted Electrochemical CO2 Reduction on Gold

AbstractElectrochemical reactions in general, and the CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR) in particular, are commonly studied at room temperature. However, practical electrolysers may use elevated temperatures. There is currently a lack of fundamental understanding of the effect of temperature on the CO2RR. Here, we performed temperature‐dependent studies on the CO2RR on a relatively simple electrode material, namely gold, to obtain insights into how temperature influences this reaction and the competing hydrogen evolution reaction. A rotating ring disk electrode setup was used to show that the CO2RR activity and selectivity increased with temperature, and to obtain kinetic parameters such as the apparent activation energy and transfer coefficient. The magnitude of the temperature effect and the activation energy was affected by both the cation identity and concentration in the electrolyte. Moreover, the positive effect of temperature on the kinetics of the CO2RR was counteracted by the lower CO2 solubility, making efficient mass transport even more important at higher temperatures.

Towards the Third Millennium Changes in Siberian Triple Tree-Ring Stable Isotopes

Significant air temperature and precipitation changes have occurred since the 2000s in vulnerable Siberian subarctic regions and urged updates of available chronologies towards the third millennium. It is important to better understand recent climatic changes compared to the past decades, centuries and even millennia. In this study, we present the first annually resolved triple tree-ring isotope dataset (δ13C, δ18O and δ2H) for the eastern part of the Taimyr Peninsula (TAY) and northeastern Yakutia (YAK) from 1900 to 2021. We found that the novel and largely unexplored δ2H of larch tree-ring cellulose was linked significantly with δ18O for the YAK site, which was affected by averaged April–June air temperatures and evaporation. Simulated by the Land Surface Processes and Exchanges (LPX-Bern 1.0) model, the water fraction per year for soil depths at 0–20 and 20–30 cm was significantly linked with the new eco-hydrological tree-ring δ2H data. Our results suggest increasing evapotranspiration and response of trees’ water relation to rising thaw water uptake from lower (20–30 cm) soil depth. A positive effect of July air temperature on tree-ring δ18O and a negative impact of July precipitation were found, indicating dry conditions. The δ13C in larch tree-ring cellulose for both sites showed negative correlations with July precipitation and relative humidity, confirming dry environmental conditions towards the third millennium.

Prevalence and Genomic Diversity of Salmonella enterica Recovered from River Water in a Major Agricultural Region in Northwestern Mexico.

Salmonella enterica is a leading cause of human gastrointestinal disease worldwide. Given that Salmonella is persistent in aquatic environments, this study examined the prevalence, levels and genotypic diversity of Salmonella isolates recovered from major rivers in an important agricultural region in northwestern Mexico. During a 13-month period, a total of 143 river water samples were collected and subjected to size-exclusion ultrafiltration, followed by enrichment, and selective media for Salmonella isolation and quantitation. The recovered Salmonella isolates were examined by next-generation sequencing for genome characterization. Salmonella prevalence in river water was lower in the winter months (0.65 MPN/100 mL) and significantly higher in the summer months (13.98 MPN/100 mL), and a Poisson regression model indicated a negative effect of pH and salinity and a positive effect of river water temperature (p = 0.00) on Salmonella levels. Molecular subtyping revealed Oranienburg, Anatum and Saintpaul were the most predominant Salmonella serovars. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based phylogeny revealed that the detected 27 distinct serovars from river water clustered in two major clades. Multiple nonsynonymous SNPs were detected in stiA, sivH, and ratA, genes required for Salmonella fitness and survival, and these findings identified relevant markers to potentially develop improved methods for characterizing this pathogen.

Opposing global change drivers counterbalance trends in breeding North American monarch butterflies.

Many insects are in clear decline, with monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) drawing particular attention as a flagship species. It is well documented that, among migratory populations, numbers of overwintering monarchs have been falling across several decades, but trends among breeding monarchs are less clear. Here, we compile >135,000 monarch observations between 1993 and 2018 from the North American Butterfly Association's annual butterfly count to examine spatiotemporal patterns and potential drivers of adult monarch relative abundance trends across the entire breeding range in eastern and western North America. While the data revealed declines at some sites, particularly the US Northeast and parts of the Midwest, numbers in other areas, notably the US Southeast and Northwest, were unchanged or increasing, yielding a slightly positive overall trend across the species range. Negative impacts of agricultural glyphosate use appeared to be counterbalanced by positive effects of annual temperature, particularly in the US Midwest. Overall, our results suggest that population growth in summer is compensating for losses during the winter and that changing environmental variables have offsetting effects on mortality and/or reproduction. We suggest that density‐dependent reproductive compensation when lower numbers arrive each spring is currently able to maintain relatively stable breeding monarch numbers. However, we caution against complacency since accelerating climate change may bring growing threats. In addition, increases of summer monarchs in some regions, especially in California and in the south, may reflect replacement of migratory with resident populations. Nonetheless, it is perhaps reassuring that ubiquitous downward trends in summer monarch abundance are not evident.

Microstructural evolution, fracture behavior and bonding mechanisms study of copper sintering on bare DBC substrate for SiC power electronics packaging

Robust bonding of Cu quasi-nanoparticles sintering for Ag coated chip and bare copper substrate was achieved. The effect of temperature, pressure and time on the sintering bonding strength and microstructural evolution was deeply studied. 36.5 MPa shear strength was achieved when applied 5 MPa pressure. By increasing to 30 MPa, it shows the best die shear strength of 116 MPa, accomplished with a sintering temperature of 250 °C for 3 min. Temperature also influenced the shear strength a lot. Between 210 °C and 230 °C can already provide strength over 30 MPa. When increased to 270 °C, the strength was extremely enhanced to over 120 MPa. Inspection on the fracture behaviors and cross-section of sheared off samples was conducted by SEM, EDS, and XRD. It is found that low bonding performance is due to both of the incomplete burnt out of organics and incomplete Cu QNPs sintering. In addition, high bonding is account for the positive effect of pressure and temperature on promoting the necking growth, sintering networking formation, pores isolation and brittle-ductile fracture transformation. The recommended sintering profile is 250 °C, 3 min, 20 MPa. Finally, the feasibility for SiC MOSFET power electronics DA was verified by testing its static characteristics at both room temperature and 150 °C.

Age structure affects population productivity in an exploited fish species

Long-term changes in the age and size structure of animal populations are well documented, yet their impacts on population productivity are poorly understood. Fishery exploitation can be a major driver of changes in population age-size structure because fisheries significantly increase mortality and often selectively remove larger and older fish. Climate change is another potential driver of shifts in the demographic structure of fish populations. Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod is the largest population of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and one of the world's most important commercial fish stocks. This population has experienced considerable changes in population age-size structure over the past century, largely in response to fishing. In this study, we investigate whether changes in spawner age structure have affected population productivity in NEA cod, measured as recruits per spawning stock biomass, over the past 75 years. We find evidence that shifts in age structure toward younger spawners negatively affect population productivity, implying higher recruitment success when the spawning stock is composed of older individuals. The positive effect of an older spawning stock is likely linked to maternal effects and higher reproductive output of larger females. Our results indicate a threefold difference in productivity between the youngest and oldest spawning stock that has been observed since the 1950s. Further, our results suggest a positive effect of environmental temperature and a negative effect of intraspecific cannibalism by older juveniles on population productivity, which partly masked the effect of spawner age structure unless accounted for in the model. Collectively, these findings emphasize the importance of population age structure for the productivity of fish populations and suggest that harvest-induced demographic changes can have negative feedbacks for fisheries that lead to a younger spawning stock. Incorporating demographic data into harvest strategies could thus facilitate sustainable fishery management.

Association of ambient ozone exposure with anxiety and depression among middle-aged and older adults in China: exploring modification by high temperature

Anxiety and depression are severe public health problems worldwide. The effects of ozone exposure on anxious and depressive symptoms remain largely unknown, especially in China. We evaluated the associations between ozone exposure and depression and anxiety among middle-aged and older adults across China. A multi-center community-based repeated measurement study among middle-aged and older adults was conducted from 2017 to 2018 in 11 provinces in China. The status of depression and anxiety was measured using Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and the generalized anxiety disorder seven-item (GAD-7) scale at the cut-off point of five, respectively. Concentrations of multiple ozone metrics were collected from real-time monitoring stations. The multilevel logistic regression model with random intercept was used to evaluate the effects of ambient ozone on anxiety and depression over different exposure windows. After adjusting for potential confounders, a 10 μg /m3 increase in the three months moving average of ozone was associated with the risk of anxiety [odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15; 1.37] and depression (OR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08; 1.27). A significantly positive modification effect of temperature on associations between ozone and anxiety was also found, while there is no interaction for depression. Exposure-response curves showed that there may be a threshold for the effect of ozone exposure on anxiety and depression over the three months moving average concentrations, with similar patterns observed at different temperature levels. People over 65 years old were at significantly higher risks of ozone-associated depression, while anxiety was more strongly associated with ozone in hypertensive patients. Our study supports the theory that anxiety and depression is associated with mid-term ozone exposure in China, and temperatures significantly enhanced their associations. These findings may have significant implications for promoting prevention activities regarding mental disorders and approaches in reducing the disease burden by simultaneously controlling air pollution and mitigating climate change.

Changes in Container-Breeding Mosquito Diversity and Abundance Along an Urbanization Gradient are Associated With Dominance of Arboviral Vectors.

Environmental conditions associated with urbanization are likely to influence the composition and abundance of mosquito (Diptera, Culicidae) assemblages through effects on juvenile stages, with important consequences for human disease risk. We present six years (2011-2016) of weekly juvenile mosquito data from distributed standardized ovitraps and evaluate how variation in impervious cover and temperature affect the composition and abundance of container-breeding mosquito species in Maryland, USA. Species richness and evenness were lowest at sites with high impervious cover (>60% in 100-m buffer). However, peak diversity was recorded at sites with intermediate impervious cover (28-35%). Four species were observed at all sites, including two recent invasives (Aedes albopictus Skuse, Ae. japonicus Theobald), an established resident (Culex pipiens L), and one native (Cx. restuans Theobald). All four are viral vectors in zoonotic or human transmission cycles. Temperature was a positive predictor of weekly larval abundance during the growing season for each species, as well as a positive predictor of rapid pupal development. Despite being observed at all sites, each species responded differently to impervious cover. Abundance of Ae. albopictus larvae was positively associated with impervious cover, emphasizing that this medically-important vector not only persists in the warmer, impervious urban landscape but is positively associated with it. Positive temperature effects in our models of larval abundance and pupae occurrence in container habitats suggest that these four vector species are likely to continue to be present and abundant in temperate cities under future temperature scenarios.

Spatial-temporal distribution of Dalbulus maidis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) and factors affecting its abundance in Brazil corn.

Since the last decade, Dalbulus maidis has become the primary pest in cornfields, particularly due to its ability to transmit plant pathogens. Dalbulus maidis is the main vector of the corn stunt spiroplasma and maize bushy stunt phytoplasma. However, there is little information available on this pest. Understanding its spatial dynamics may allow us to determine how its infestations begin and to identify its colonization patterns, dispersal, and the role of landscape structure on D. maidis dynamics. Thus, this study aimed to investigate within-field spatial distribution and the factors associated with D. maidis abundance in five commercial fields. In all fields, higher infestations occurred at the boundaries of the central pivot, showing a clear edge-biased distribution. Ranges varied from 100.4 to 611.8m, and our models' overall fit indicated strong to moderate spatial dependency. Additionally, correlation analyses indicated a positive effect of air temperature on the population of D. maidis. Conversely, rainfall negatively affected D. maidis. This study provides essential guidance for improving D. maidis integrated pest management at regional and local scales. Based on its high dispersal ability, our study suggests the need for a legislative or regulatory method of control for D. maidis, especially in regions where corn has more than one growing season. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Temperature and barometric pressure affect the activity intensity and movement of an endangered thermoconforming lizard

AbstractGlobal warming is expected to affect movement‐related thermoregulation in ectotherms, but the likely effects on thermoconforming lizards, which spend little energy in thermoregulation behavior, are unclear. We used the Guatemalan beaded lizard (Heloderma charlesbogerti) as a model thermoconforming species to investigate the effects of ambient temperature and barometric pressure (a cue for rain in the study area) on activity intensity and the structure of movement paths. We tracked 12 individuals over a total of 148 animal days during the wet season of 2019 using Global Positioning System tags and triaxial accelerometry. We found a clear positive effect of ambient temperature on activity (using vectorial dynamic body acceleration [VeDBA]) and step length of lizard movements. The movement also became more directional (longer step lengths and smaller turning angles) with increasing ambient temperatures. There was a small negative effect of barometric pressure on VeDBA. We propose that our patterns are indicative of internal state changes in the animals, as they move from a state of hunger, eliciting foraging, which is enhanced by lower temperatures and rainfall to a thermally stressed state, which initiates shelter‐seeking. Our findings highlight the sensitivity of this species to temperature change, show that not all thermoconforming lizards are thermal generalists, and indicate that predicted regional increases in temperature and reduction in rainfall are likely to negatively impact this species by reducing the width of their operational thermal window.

Two Decades of Match-Mismatch in Northeast Arctic Cod – Feeding Conditions and Survival

The successful recruitment of Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod is thought to depend on sufficient and suitable prey for the newly hatched larvae, in particular the nauplii stages of the lipid-rich calanoid copepod species Calanus finmarchicus. The role of spatial and temporal variations in prey availability in combination with temperature and other factors in influencing growth and survival of cod larvae is, however, incompletely understood. By combining an individual based model for NEA cod larvae at the Norwegian coast with a high-resolution ocean model and a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus model providing 18 years of daily environmental conditions and prey availability we assessed larval growth and survival until they settle in their feeding habitat in the Barents Sea in early fall. We find on average a two-week delay from the peak timing of first-feeding cod larvae to the peak in prey availability. In warm years, more larvae experience food limitation than in normal years. The positive effects of high temperature on growth, survival and ultimately recruitment are nonetheless larger than the negative effects of food limitation. Food limitation mainly affects larvae spawned in southern areas or late in the spawning season as these larvae experience the highest temperatures and have the highest energy requirements. Our findings highlight the spatial and temporal differences in mechanisms that regulate growth and survival of early life stages of NEA cod and suggest that spatially resolved data may be essential for understanding match-mismatch dynamics.

A New Classification Tool and a Systematic Review of Macroalgal Studies Disentangle the Complex Interactive Effects of Warming and Nutrient Enrichment on Primary Production

In order to understand how global warming effects on ecosystem primary production may change depending on nutrient enrichment, a new classification is proposed to disentangle and recognize the combination of interactions among several factors, based on the effect direction (positive, negative, or neutral) and its changes induced in it by the other factor (synergizing, antagonizing, inducing no change, or changing it in some other way). Marine macroalgae were chosen (as primary producers for which there is the most experimental information available) to review the relevant studies on which this new classification can be tested. It was observed the positive effects of elevated temperature and nutrient enrichment often synergized each other within the temperature range between relatively low and optimal growth levels. However, the negative effect of further temperature elevation from optimal to higher levels was antagonized by nutrient enrichment in some studies but was synergized in others, depending on the range of temperature elevation. The positive effect of nutrient enrichment was antagonized (but still positive) by temperature increase above the optimum in many cases, although the effect sometimes switched to a negative effect depending on the magnitude of nutrient enrichment. These results predict that global warming will enhance bottom-up effects on primary production in cold seasons and areas, and there will be a negative warming effect on production in hot seasons and areas, but it may be possible to mitigate this effect by appropriate levels of nutrient enrichment.

The effect of temperature on specific dynamic action of juvenile fall-run Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha.

Juvenile fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin experience temporally and spatially heterogenous temperature regimes, between cool upper tributaries and the warm channelized Delta, during freshwater rearing and outmigration. Limited water resources necessitate human management of dam releases, allowing temperature modifications. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of temperature on specific dynamic action (SDA), or the metabolic cost associated with feeding and digestion, which is thought to represent a substantial portion of fish energy budgets. Measuring SDA with respect to absolute aerobic scope (AAS), estimated by the difference between maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and standard metabolic rate (SMR), provides a snapshot of its respective energy allocation. Fish were acclimated to 16°C, raised or lowered to each acute temperature (13°C, 16°C, 19°C, 22°C or 24°C), then fed a meal of commercial pellets weighing 2% of their wet mass. We detected a significant positive effect of temperature on SMR and MMR, but not on AAS. As expected, there was no significant effect of temperature on the total O2 cost of digestion, but unlike other studies, we did not see a significant difference in duration, peak metabolic rate standardized to SMR, time to peak, percent of meal energy utilized, nor the ratio of peak O2 consumption to SMR. Peak O2 consumption represented 10.4-14.5% of AAS leaving a large amount of aerobic capacity available for other activities, and meal energy utilized for digestion ranged from 5.7% to 7.2%, leaving substantial remaining energy to potentially assimilate for growth. Our juvenile fall-run Chinook salmon exhibited thermal stability in their SDA response, which may play a role in maintaining homeostasis of digestive capability in a highly heterogeneous thermal environment where rapid growth is important for successful competition with conspecifics and for avoiding predation.

Varying relationships between fish length and scale size under changing environmental conditions – Multidecadal perspective in Atlantic herring

Calcified structures are valuable indicators being used in fisheries research for the estimation of fish ages or back-calculations of fish lengths. Such back-calculations typically assume constant proportional growth of fish and calcified structures independent of internal or environmental factors. We analyzed extensive data (1935–2020) of scale measurements from Norwegian spring-spawning herring. We applied linear quantile regressions to investigate the fish length – scale size relationship and environmental influences on individuals growing at different rates. We demonstrated that the fish length – scale size relationship varied over time and between cohorts, individuals of the same year-class. Parts of this variation can be attributed to changing environmental conditions. We identified a negative effect of stock total biomass and a positive effect of temperature on fish length when conditioned on scale size. The effect of stock total biomass varied considerably but the effect of temperature was similar between fish characterized by different growth rates. Our results are essential for long-term studies highlighting potential biases associated with environmental effects and different growth rates of individuals. These biases should be accounted for in growth history reconstructions and applications of the calcified structures as ecological indicators.

Design of Experiment Method – An Application in Improving Quality of Magnesium Hydroxide Produced from Natural Seawater Bittern

Seawater bittern is an important resource for production of magnesium hydroxide. It is particularly meaningful for countries of which long beaches and high temperatures are available as natural advantages. This production process bases on the main reaction between solutions containing magnesium and various alkaline agents. Among of precipitants, lime slurry is frequently used as an inexpensive reactant. However, the contamination of calcium in the final magnesium hydroxide is a major problem which limits applicability of this product in many fields required extremely high quality of magnesium hydroxide such as pharmaceuticals, and catalyst, etc. In this work, magnesium hydroxide with more than 99% purity will be recovered from natural seawater bitterns by using the design of experiment (DOE) method. Selected from nine potential factors, a full factorial design considering four main effects was applied to construct a second-order regression model which allows predicting favorable conditions to pursuit high purity of magnesium hydroxide from multi-component seawater bittern and lime milk. On the one hand, the results for a 1.0 L batch investigation proved that factors such as concentration of Ca(OH)2 in lime suspension and residence time have strong negative influences on the product purity, besides positive effects of reaction temperature. On the other hand, magnesium concentration in the bittern was absent in the regression model. At the optimal conditions, the chemical purity of the solid product was obtained at a value of 99.35%. Thus, this product, and therefore its corresponding production conditions, can be recommended for applications required high quality of magnesium hydroxide.

Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

BackgroundTemperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought.MethodsHere, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth.ResultsThe best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous.ConclusionsDespite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.

Temperature drives variation in flying insect biomass across a German malaise trap network

ABSTRACT Among the many concerns for biodiversity in the Anthropocene, recent reports of flying insect loss are particularly alarming, given their importance as pollinators, pest control agents, and as a food source. Few insect monitoring programmes cover the large spatial scales required to provide more generalizable estimates of insect responses to global change drivers. We ask how climate and surrounding habitat affect flying insect biomass using data from the first year of a new monitoring network at 84 locations across Germany comprising a spatial gradient of land cover types from protected to urban and crop areas. Flying insect biomass increased linearly with temperature across Germany. However, the effect of temperature on flying insect biomass flipped to negative in the hot months of June and July when local temperatures most exceeded long‐term averages. Land cover explained little variation in insect biomass, but biomass was lowest in forests. Grasslands, pastures, and orchards harboured the highest insect biomass. The date of peak biomass was primarily driven by surrounding land cover, with grasslands especially having earlier insect biomass phenologies. Standardised, large‐scale monitoring provides key insights into the underlying processes of insect decline and is pivotal for the development of climate‐adapted strategies to promote insect diversity. In a temperate climate region, we find that the positive effects of temperature on flying insect biomass diminish in a German summer at locations where temperatures most exceeded long‐term averages. Our results highlight the importance of local adaptation in climate change‐driven impacts on insect communities.

Integrated population modelling reveals potential drivers of demography from partially aligned data: a case study of snowy plover declines under human stressors.

Knowledge of demography is essential for understanding wildlife population dynamics and developing appropriate conservation plans. However, population survey and demographic data (e.g., capture-recapture) are not always aligned in space and time, hindering our ability to robustly estimate population size and demographic processes. Integrated population models (IPMs) can provide inference for population dynamics with poorly aligned but jointly analysed population and demographic data. In this study, we used an IPM to analyse partially aligned population and demographic data of a migratory shorebird species, the snowy plover (Charadrius nivosus). Snowy plover populations have declined dramatically during the last two decades, yet the demographic mechanisms and environmental drivers of these declines remain poorly understood, hindering development of appropriate conservation strategies. We analysed 21 years (1998–2018) of partially aligned population survey, nest survey, and capture-recapture-resight data in three snowy plover populations (i.e., Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma) in the Southern Great Plains of the US. By using IPMs we aimed to achieve better precision while evaluating the effects of wetland habitat and climatic factors (minimum temperature, wind speed) on snowy plover demography. Our IPM provided reasonable precision for productivity measures even with missing data, but population and survival estimates had greater uncertainty in years without corresponding data. Our model also uncovered the complex relationships between wetland habitat, climate, and demography with reasonable precision. Wetland habitat had positive effects on snowy plover productivity (i.e., clutch size and clutch fate), indicating the importance of protecting wetland habitat under climate change and other human stressors for the conservation of this species. We also found a positive effect of minimum temperature on snowy plover productivity, indicating potential benefits of warmth during night on their population. Based on our results, we suggest prioritizing population and capture-recapture surveys for understanding population dynamics and underlying demographic processes when data collection is limited by time and/or financial resources. Our modelling approach can be used to allocate limited conservation resources for evidence-based decision-making.

T‐FACE studies reveal that increased temperature exerts an effect opposite to that of elevated CO2 on nutrient concentration and bioavailability in rice and wheat grains

AbstractElevated CO2 concentration has been reported to decrease grain nutrient concentrations and thus worsen nutritional deficiency and hidden hunger. One nutritional aspect is mineral content, yet mineral bioavailability can be limited by the presence of phytic acid. Given that future climate scenarios predict elevated global temperature driven by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we used Temperature by Free‐Air CO2 Enrichment (T‐FACE) field experiments to investigate whether elevated temperature alters the effects of elevated CO2 on grain mineral concentrations, grain mineral yields, and their bioavailability in a range of wheat and rice genotypes. We found that the negative effects of elevated CO2 were compensated for by positive effects of elevated temperature. As a result, the combined elevated CO2 and elevated temperature increased concentrations of some minerals by up to ~15% in both rice and wheat relative to control conditions. Moreover, the combined elevated CO2 and elevated temperature did not significantly change total yields of some minerals despite lower grain yields. The combined CO2 and temperature elevation increased phytic acid concentration in rice by 18.1% but decreased it in wheat by 3.5%. The mineral bioavailability, estimated as the mole ratio of phytic acid to minerals in rice and wheat grains, was limited by the combined CO2 and temperature elevation in only a few cases. Our results indicate that under future climate conditions of elevated temperature and CO2, the nutritional quality of rice and wheat with respect to minerals may remain unchanged.