Positive Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Possible Consequences of Global Climate Change in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

On December 25, 2019, by an order of the Government of the Russian Federation, the National Plan of Measures for the first stage of adaptation to the climate change for the period until 2022 was approved. This plan pays considerable attention to the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. In 2020-2021, it is planned to develop and approve a separate sectoral plan for adaptation to the climate change in the macroregion. In general, among the key problems of the socio-economic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, the unpreparedness of all types of infrastructure for the possible consequences of the global climate change is particularly notable. Climate change occurring in the macroregion is superimposed by additional anthropogenic factors, including chemical pollution, excess catch of aquatic biological resources, changes in land use, population growth, and changes in the structure of the economy. The problem of the impact of climate processes on socio-economic development is fundamental and has its positive or negative manifestations in all spheres of life. The negative manifestations of the climate change primarily include consequences for ecosystems, the environment, infrastructure, especially coastal areas, public health and traditional local lifestyles. The positive effects of climate change include reducing heating costs, expanding opportunities for agriculture and forestry, developing shipping along routes in the Northern Sea, as well as expanding access and increasing the extraction of mineral and marine biological resources.

Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

Simulation of climate change and thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China using 3-PGmix model

Understanding the effects of thinning on forest productivity under climate change is vital to adaptive forest management. In the present study, the 3-PGmix model was applied to simulate the thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations under climate change using 164 sample plots collected from the 6th, 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories in Jilin Province, northeast China. Climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were adopted from 2011 to 2100 with corresponding reference years (1981–2010). We simulated four cutting intensities: no-thinning, NT; low intensity thinning with 10% stem removal, LT; moderate thinning with 20% stem removal, MT and heavy thinning with 30% stem removal, HT for three times with 5- and 10-year thinning intervals. The results indicated that the mean net primary productivity (NPP) during the simulated 90 years was increased under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The LT and MT had positive but HT had negative effects on the mean NPP for the same climate scenario. Increased thinning intensity facilitated the positive effects of climate change on NPP but without a significant interaction effect. During the simulation, LT had the highest NPP value and HT had the biggest NPP increase under future climate change. We also discussed the management of larch plantations under climate change and advocated low intensity thinning with 10-year thinning interval to gain maximum NPP for mitigating climate change.

Let it snow! Winter conditions affect growth of birch seedlings during the following growing season.

Air temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase in the future, especially at high latitudes and particularly so during winter. In contrast to air temperatures, changes in soil temperatures are more difficult to predict, as the fate of the insulating snow cover is crucial in this respect. Soil conditions can also be affected by rain-on-snow events and warm spells during winter, resulting in freeze-thaw cycles, compacted snow, ice encasement and local flooding. These adverse conditions during winter could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climate change on forest growth and productivity. For studying the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) seedlings, we carried out a laboratory experiment with birch seedlings subjected to four different winter scenarios: snow covering the seedlings (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow at all (NO SNOW). After the winter treatments we simulated a spring and early summer period of 9.5 weeks, and monitored the growth by measuring shoot and root biomass of the seedlings, and starch and soluble sugar concentrations. We also assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring leaf chlorophyll fluorescence and gas exchange. Although no difference in mortality was observed between the treatments, the seedlings in the SNOW and ICE treatments had significantly higher shoot and root biomass compared with those in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments. We found higher starch concentrations in roots of the seedlings in the SNOW and ICE treatments, compared with those in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments, although photosynthesis did not differ. Our results suggest a malfunction of carbohydrate distribution in the seedlings of the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments, probably resulting from decreased sinks. The results underline the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow pattern might affect the growth of tree seedlings and thus possibly species composition and forest productivity.

Revisiting the role of migratory caribou in the control of shrub expansion in northern Nunavik (Québec, Canada)

Widespread shrub expansion has been observed at the circumpolar scale in response to climate change. This phenomenon could be inhibited by large herbivores through selective browsing that reduces shrub growth. Our objective was to assess the dynamics of shrub species in the Deception Bay area, in Nunavik (Quebec, Canada), a region in the summer range of the Riviere-aux-Feuilles migratory caribou herd. We surveyed abundance and stem mortality of all shrub species along systematically located transects in a 54 km2 area. Our results showed that shrubs covered 11.5% of the area, and were dominated by prostrate Betula glandulosa (8.7%). Stem mortality of established individuals was greater for Salix planifolia (45.6%) and Salix glauca (46.5%) than for B. glandulosa (9.3%). Using dendrochronological analysis, we determined the age structure of the two dominant erect shrub species in ten 10 m × 10 m plots. We recorded a high number of B. glandulosa and, to a lesser extent, of S. planifolia recruits (71.0 and 4.6 per 100 m2, respectively) established after 1999, when the Riviere-aux-Feuilles herd was abundant. Thus, our results do not support the hypothesis that large herbivores counteracted the positive effects of climate change on shrub recruitment. However, since the structure of the recruits are prostrate rather than erect, as is usually observed with shrub expansion in the warming Arctic, it is likely that herbivory, and/or, the harsh climate, is constraining habitat change.

Recursos zoogenéticos, producción lechera y cambio climático caracterización cadena lechera Quetzaltenango

El área de Producción del Altiplano de Quetzaltenango identificada como “cadena lechera” está ubicada al Norte del Departamento, incluyendo áreas colindantes de Totonicapán y San Marcos, en altitudes de 2200 hasta 2800m. Con condiciones variadas para tal producción, trabajan en la actividad más de 300 familias de pequeños productores(5 vacas promedio). La intervención institucional se ha dado por: Ministerio de Agricultura, Cooperativa XELAC, ICTA, AID e iniciativa privada en: organización, producción, transformación, mercadeo por las “Buenas Prácticas”.La integración de conocimientos y recursos de Productores y especialistas han producido “Tecnologías Apropiadas”encontradas al caracterizar la Cadena Lechera durante los años 2008-2017: a). Uso de ganado apropiado al medio:animales encastados hasta 3/4 Holstein x Jersey x criollo, en doble o triple cruce (chumeca), logrando adaptaciónal ambiente y alta productividad; b). Las mujeres se encargan en un 80% de casos de la actividad lechera: cuido,ordeña, elaboración de productos artesanales y comercialización; principalmente del “queso de sija” propio de la región;c). Una décima parte de leche cruda se destina a la Industria Lechera, principalmente a la Cooperativa XELAC que elabora productos naturales de alta calidad con tecnología Suiza desde hace 40 años. d). Con la introducción de pastos “europeos” por FAO/MAGA desde 1974 e ICTA/DIGESEPE con el asocio avena/vicia se han trabajado las pasturas en la zona; con la limitante que los pastos “europeos” no producían semilla sexual a 2500 m.s.n.m.; por efecto positivo del cambio climático con aumento de 4˚C en los últimos 40 años más otros factores (luz-lluvia) han posibilitado la producción de “semilla sexual” de Rye Grass (Lollium multiflorum), considerando un beneficio para productores del área desde el año 2010. e) La inocuidad de la leche y derivados es apoyada con equipo adecuado de ordeña, aplicación de BPMS, uso integrado de abono orgánico lombricompost y fertirriego del pasto con “aguas servidas” del establo. Orientando las construcciones al medio y cambio climático. El caracterizar los sistemas de producción conjuntamente: Productor-Beneficiario-Profesional ha sido la constante para lograr la sostenibilidad, utilizando herramientas de Etno-veterinaria y Etno-zootecnia.

Inventory and prioritization for the conservation of crop wild relatives in The Netherlands under climate change

Crop-related wild plant species are a rich source of genetic diversity and are potentially useful in plant breeding for the development of varieties with novel traits. However, many crop wild relatives are poorly represented in gene banks, while their continued survival in situ is by no means ensured. Here we introduced a methodology to inventory relevant taxa and to assess their threat levels for continued survival in situ, including the expected effects of climate change, and applied it to crop wild relatives in The Netherlands. A total number of 214 taxa of wild relatives of economically important agricultural and horticultural crops were identified, of which 53 are included in the Dutch red list of plant species. The group of 53 red list species was studied in more detail to prioritize species for conservation. Based on recent distribution data, the number of Dutch populations consisting of at least 50 individuals varied strongly among the red list species. The majority of these ‘large’ populations were found to be located in protected areas. Furthermore, niche modelling was used to study the expected effects of climate change on the future distribution of the red list species. These analyses predicted a reduced distribution area for the majority of species, although also positive effects of climate change were observed for several species. Similar patterns of change were observed when only protected areas were considered. Results of the study were used to prioritize the conservation of crop wild relatives in The Netherlands.

Decadal Variations in Eastern Canada\u2019s Taiga Wood Biomass Production Forced by Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions

Across Eastern Canada (EC), taiga forests represent an important carbon reservoir, but the extent to which climate variability affects this ecosystem over decades remains uncertain. Here, we analyze an extensive network of black spruce (Picea mariana Mill.) ring width and wood density measurements and provide new evidence that wood biomass production is influenced by large-scale, internal ocean-atmosphere processes. We show that while black spruce wood biomass production is primarily governed by growing season temperatures, the Atlantic ocean conveys heat from the subtropics and influences the decadal persistence in taiga forests productivity. Indeed, we argue that 20–30 years periodicities in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as part of the the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) directly influence heat transfers to adjacent lands. Winter atmospheric conditions associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) might also impact EC’s taiga forests, albeit indirectly, through its effect on SSTs and sea ice conditions in surrounding seas. Our work emphasizes that taiga forests would benefit from the combined effects of a warmer atmosphere and stronger ocean-to-land heat transfers, whereas a weakening of these transfers could cancel out, for decades or longer, the positive effects of climate change on Eastern Canada’s largest ecosystem.

Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: II. Economic viability in historical and future environments

The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change and salinity on the economic viability of rice-based cropping systems under farmers' current management across current and future climate and salinity scenarios in south-west coastal Bangladesh. Detailed case studies were conducted in two contrasting coastal villages in Dacope Sub-district, Khulna District. Enterprise budgets were developed using APSIM-simulated and extrapolated yields together with crop management, cost, and price data obtained from the villages and estimated from various sources. The projected impact of climate change and salinization on the economic viability (profitability and riskiness) of most cropping systems was not pronounced. Thus rice-based cropping systems are likely to remain viable in both optimistic and pessimistic climate scenarios in coming decades, even allowing for salinization, because some of the positive effects of climate change were projected to offset the sizeable losses due to salinity. Moreover, where small yield declines were projected these were often offset by higher future prices. Sustainably-managed rice/shrimp cropping systems are likely to remain the most profitable option in locations with access to tidal saline water. In other sites, given adequate freshwater for irrigation in the dry season, rice/non-rice cropping systems were projected to be the most viable options, especially incorporating newer crops such as sunflower and maize. Dry-season rice and wheat were not projected to be viable options.

Alpine grasslands response to climatic factors and anthropogenic activities on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2012

To address pasture degradation on the Tibetan Plateau, the Chinese government has launched the ecological restoration project Grazing Withdrawal Program (GWP) since 2004. However, few studies have evaluated the impact of the GWP on grassland recovery. Based on monthly remote-sensed vegetation index and meteorological data from 2000 to 2012, we assessed the dynamics of annual net primary productivity (NPP) in alpine grasslands and quantified the effects of climatic factors and anthropogenic activities on NPP change by using the climate-driven NPP and the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) models. We found that there existed two distinct periods with an accelerating trend in NPP increase before and after 2004. The area percentage of NPP change induced by climatic factors increased from 41.55% to 83.75%, but that percentage caused by human activities decreased from 58.45% to 16.25% in the two periods of 2000–2004 and 2004–2012. Between 2000 and 2004, overgrazing reduced the positive effect of climate change on NPP variability, resulting in wide-scale grassland degradation. Between 2004 and 2012, grassland ecosystems gradually recovered from heavy grazing pressure, and the human-induced degradation was reversed after the implementation of the GWP. Thus, temperature and solar radiation became dominant factors in driving NPP change. Our results indicated that the GWP produces a significant positive effect on the restoration of alpine grasslands by controlling livestock numbers and decreasing grazing intensity. This study provides an objective assessment of restoration actuation on grassland ecosystems, having important implications for demonstrating the effectiveness of the GWP on grassland restoration on the Tibetan Plateau.

A spatial micro-econometric approach to estimating climate change impacts on wine firm performance: A case study from Moldavia region, Romania

This article proposes a micro-econometric approach to assess climate change impacts on wine industry performance in the Moldavia region of Romania. In the assessment we consider the spatial variability of wine-growing micro-areas and employ a small scale for the analysis. Results show that vineyard revenue is influenced by a local effect. Spatial differences among municipalities are highlighted and are driven by vineyard locations and distance from urban areas. Differences at the local scale reflect the presence of structural and environmental constraints. Findings demonstrate that climate change impacts vary significantly among simulated scenarios. The simulated increase in temperature should compensate for the negative effect caused by rainfall changes. Results also suggest that winegrowers should benefit from climate change, although this will depend on the vineyard's location. Potential policy measures designed to remove local constraints and to capitalise on the positive effects of climate change are discussed.

Organic amendments increase corn yield by enhancing soil resilience to climate change

A 22-year field experiment was conducted in Gongzhuling, Jilin province, China to investigate corn yield response to fertilization practice. Compared to an unfertilized control (CK), all fertilization treatments, including inorganic nitrogen fertilizer only (N), balanced inorganic fertilizers (NPK), NPK plus corn straw (SNPK), and NPK plus farmyard manure (MNPK), resulted in significant increases in corn yield. However, only organic matter amendments sustained increasing yield trends, with annual rates of 0.137 and 0.194tha−1 for the SPNK and MNPK treatments, respectively (P<0.05). During the 22years, the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 0.50, 0.53, and 0.46°C per decade, whereas precipitation displayed no significant change but showed large seasonal variation. According to a regression analysis, increased air temperature exerted positive effects on corn yields under the SNPK and the MNPK treatments. Under both treatments, soil organic carbon contents and soil nutrient availabilities increased significantly compared to their initial levels in 1990, whereas soil bulk density and total porosity changed slightly under the two treatments, which showed higher soil water storage than other treatments. In contrast, significant increases in soil bulk density and decreases in soil total porosity and soil nutrient availability were observed under the CK, N and NPK treatments. The contributions of soil fertility to corn yield were 28.4%, 37.9%, 38.4%, 39.0%, and 42.9% under CK, N, NPK, SNPK, and MNPK treatments, respectively, whereas climate changes accounted for 27.0%, 14.6%, 12.4%, 11.8%, and 10.8%. These results indicate that, in Northeast China, organic matter amendments can mitigate negative and exploit positive effects of climate change on crop production by enhancing soil quality.

Adopting Higher-yielding Varieties to Ensure Chinese Food Security under Climate Change in 2050

Challenges of ensuring food security under climate change require urgent and substantial increase in the focus of research, innovation, transformation of knowledge, and rapid adoption of available technologies. Here we simulate the effects of the adoption of higher-yielding varieties of rice, wheat and maize crops into the food production systems on China's food security index (FSI, or relative food surplus per capita) in 2050, using the CERES crop models, climate change and a range of socio- economic and agronomic scenarios which were developed following two contrasting development pathways in line with the IPCC A2 and B2 emission scenarios, respectively. The obtained results predict a slightly positive effect of climate change on the FSI, but the magnitude of this positive effect cannot compensate the negative effects of population growth, urbanization rate and the rising affluence on the future trends of the FSI. The outcomes of the adoption of higher-yielding varieties show that a systematic adoption of higher-yielding varieties can raise the average FSI values by a margin of 16 and 27 units under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, during the 2030-2050 period, compared to the average predicted FSI values of -2 and 8 percentage points under A2 and B2 during the same period. This suggests that systematic adoption of higher-yield varieties is an effective measure for Chinese agriculture not only to ensure food security but also to build adaptive capacity to climate change in 2050.

Potential of forest biomass production and utilization for mitigation of climate change in boreal conditions

The aim of this work was to study the potential of forest biomass production and utilization for mitigating climate change in boreal conditions, based on integrated use of forest ecosystem model (SIMA) simulations and life cycle assessment (LCA). More specifically, it was studied how forest management (e.g. thinning regime, nitrogen fertilization, rotation length), harvesting intensity (timber, logging residues, stumps and coarse roots in the final felling) and gradually changing climate affect in Finnish conditions forest biomass production (timber and energy biomass) (Papers I, III, IV), carbon neutrality (Paper I) and net climate impacts of forest biomass production and utilization in substituting fossilintensive materials and fuels (Paper III, IV). Furthermore, it was studied the need to adapt the cultivation of the main Finnish tree species under the gradually changing climate (Paper II). This work showed that by modifying the business-as-usual (baseline) management and by increasing the harvesting intensity, we may increase simultaneously forest biomass production, carbon sequestration and stocks of forests, and climate benefits of forest biomass production and utilization. This could be done by maintaining higher stocking over a rotation (of 60 to 80 years) compared to the baseline management and using nitrogen fertilization, and harvesting in addition to timber, also logging residues, stumps and coarse roots for energy in the final felling. However, some trade-offs exist between the economic profitability of forest biomass production and climate impacts of forest biomass production and utilization. The impacts will also vary over time depending on the prevailing environmental conditions, forest structure and forest biomass assortments used in substitution. To conclude, gradual adaptation of forest management and utilization is needed in the future, taking into account the prevailing environmental conditions (climate, site) and uncertainties related to the climate change, to fully utilize the positive effects of climate change and reduce the negative ones.

Impact assessment of climate change, carbon dioxide fertilization and constant growing season on rice yields in China

Rice is the staple food in China, and the country’s enlarging population puts increasing pressure on its rice production as well as on that of the world. In this study, we estimate the impact of climate change, CO2 fertilization, crop adaptation and the interactions of these three factors on the rice yields of China using model simulation with four hypothetical scenarios. According to the results of the model simulation, the rice yields without CO2 fertilization are predicted to decrease by 3.3 % in the 2040s. Considering a constant rice-growing season (GS), the rice yields are predicted to increase by 3.2 %. When the effect of CO2 fertilization is integrated into the Agro-C model, the expected rice yields increase by 20.9 %. When constant GS and CO2 fertilization are both integrated into the model, the predicted rice yield increases by 28.6 %. In summary, the rice yields in China are predicted to decrease in the 2040s by 0.22 t/ha due to climate change, to increase by 0.44 t/ha due to a constant GS and to increase by 1.65 t/ha due to CO2 fertilization. The benefits of crop adaptation would completely offset the negative impact of climate change. In the future, the most of the positive effects of climate change are expected to occur in northeastern and northwestern China, and the expansion of rice cultivation in northeastern China should further enhance the stability of rice production in China.

Review and synthesis of the effects of climate change on amphibians

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the responses of amphibians to climate change, with successful research carried out on climate change-associated shifts in amphibian phenology, elevational distributions and amphibian-parasite interactions. We review and synthesize the literature on this topic, emphasizing acutely lethal, sublethal, indirect and positive effects of climate change on amphibians, and major research gaps. For instance, evidence is lacking on poleward shifts in amphibian distributions and on changes in body sizes and morphologies of amphibians in response to climate change. We have limited information on amphibian thermal tolerances, thermal preferences, dehydration breaths, opportunity costs of water conserving behaviors and actual temperature and moisture ranges amphibians experience. Even when much of this information is available, there remains little evidence that climate change is acutely lethal to amphibians. This suggests that if climate change is contributing to declines, it might be through effects that are not acutely lethal, indirect, or both, but evidence in support of this suggestion is necessary. In fact, evidence that climate change is directly contributing to amphibian declines is weak, partly because researchers have not often ruled out alternative hypotheses, such as chytrid fungus or climate-fungus interactions. Consequently, we recommend that amphibian-climate research shift from primarily inductive, correlational approach as to studies that evaluate alternative hypotheses for declines. This additional rigor will require interdisciplinary collaborations, estimates of costs and benefits of climate change to amphibian fitness and populations, and the integration of correlative field studies, experiments on 'model' amphibian species, and mathematical and functional, physiological models.

Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change), in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

Positive effect of climate change on cotton in 2050 by CO2 enrichment and conservation agriculture in Cameroon

This article predicts an unexpected positive effect of climate change on cotton production in Cameroon. Global warming could threaten cotton production in Africa due to increasing temperature and CO2, and rainfall uncertainties. This situation is worsened by the fact that most African farmers grow cotton as their cash crop and have few or no possible alternatives. Assessing the impact of climate change on cotton production is therefore critical. Here, we used CROPGRO, a process-based crop model that can simulate the main features of cotton growth and management. We applied this model to two regions in North Cameroon and a set of six regional climate projections combining general climate models and regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. The model was calibrated and validated with a data set of observations made in farmer fields from 2001 to 2005 and at an experimental station in 2010. Our results show unexpectedly that climate change from 2005 to 2050 in North Cameroon will have a positive effect on cotton yields with an increase of 1.3 kg ha−1 year−1 in yield, especially if conservation agriculture systems are adopted. The predicted increase of 0.05 °C year−1 in temperature will shorten crop cycles by 0.1 day year−1 with no negative effect on yields. Moreover, the fertilizing effect of CO2 enrichment will increase yields by approximately 30 kg ha−1. The rainfall pattern is likely to change, but the six regional models used to generate future weather patterns did not predict a decrease in rainfall. One model even forecast an increase in rainfall amounts. According to our findings, climate changes in North Cameroon can be anticipated by tailoring alternative cropping systems and adaptation techniques to cope with climate change.

RCP8.5 기후조건의 작물생육모의에 근거한 우리나라 곡물생산 전망

본 연구는 기존 연구에서 주로 사용된 A1B와 최근 국가표준으로 채택된 RCP8.5 기반 미래 기후전망 등 두 가지를 이용하되, 실제 농작물이 재배되고 있는 농지단위의 속성정보를 작물모형에 적용시키고, 확률추정기법에 의해 연차변이를 부여한 10년 간격 일 기상자료에 의해 발육단계와 잠재수량 변화 추세를 도출함으로써 보다 현실성 있는 영향평가방법을 제시하고자 하였다. 남한 전역을 산맥, 하천, 집수역에 근거하여 68개의 작물재배구역(CZU)로 분류하고, 1km 격자간격의 10년 단위(2011-2100) 월별 남한 미래기후 시나리오 자료로부터 농경지에 해당하는 격자의 일 최저, 최고기온, 강수량의 월별 평균자료를 추출하였다. 농경지격자 월별 기후자료를 CZU별로 요약하고 그 공간평균값을 확률추정기법에 의해 10년 단위기간 별 30세트씩의 일별 기상자료로 변환하였다. 농촌진흥청 토양 전자지도로부터 발췌한 토양정보와 4대 권역 별 표준재배법을 적용하여 10년 단위기간의 일 기상조건 30세트에 대해 쌀, 보리, 콩 국내 주요 품종의 생육과 수량을 CERES-Rice, CERES-Barley, CROPGRO-Soybean에 의해 모의하였다. 모의결과에 의하면 모든 작목에서 기후변화에 의해 개화기(출수기)가 앞당겨지나, 연차변이는 보리와 콩에서 감소한 반면 벼에서는 증가하였다. 조기 출수에도 불구하고 보리의 종실 등숙기간은 조금 연장되었으며, 콩에서는 변동이 적었고 벼에서만 단축되었으며, 등숙기간의 연차변이는 모든 작목에서 감소추세를 보였다. 벼의 수량은 모든 품종에서 줄어들 것으로 예상되었지만, 보리의 수량은 모든 품종에서 크게 늘어나고 콩에서는 큰 변동이 없을 것으로 예상되었다. 전국의 모든 농경지에 벼를 재배한다고 가정하면 쌀(현미)의 잠재생산량은 2000년대 현재 14,863,633톤이지만 2090년대에는 11,734,019톤으로 줄어들지만, 보리를 재배한다면 현재의 잠재생산량 9,452,416톤이 미래에는 16,972,537톤으로 크게 증가하여 쌀 생산량을 추월하게 된다. 전체적으로 기후변화의 부정적 영향은 벼에서 가장 현저하며, 콩은 영향이 덜하고, 보리에서는 오히려 긍정적인 영향이 예상되므로 곡물생산 부문의 기후변화 대응전략의 하나로서 중부이북 지방에서도 보리재배에 적극적인 관심을 가져야 할 필요성이 있다. Climate change impact assessment of cereal crop production in South Korea was performed using land attributes and daily weather data at a farm scale as inputs to crop models. Farmlands in South Korea were grouped into 68 crop-simulation zone units (CZU) based on major mountains and rivers as well as existing land use information. Daily weather data at a 1-km grid spacing under the A1B- and RCP8.5 scenarios were generated stochastically to obtain decadal mean of daily data. These data were registered to the farmland grid cells and spatially averaged to represent climate conditions in each CZU. Monthly climate data for each decade in 2001~2100 were transformed to 30 sets of daily weather data for each CZU by using a stochastic weather generator. Soil data and crop management information for 68 CZU were used as inputs to the CERES-rice, CERE-barley and CROPGRO-soybean models calibrated to represent the genetic features of major domestic cultivars in South Korea. Results from the models suggested that the heading or flowering of rice, winter barley and soybean could be accelerated in the future. The grain-fill period of winter barley could be extended, resulting in much higher yield of winter barley in most CZUs than that of rice. Among the three major cereal grain crops in Korea, rice seems most vulnerable to negative impact of climate change, while little impact of climate change is expected on soybeans. Because a positive effect of climate change is projected for winter barley, policy in agricultural production should pay more attention to facilitate winter barley production as an adaptation strategy for the national food security.

Climate change might increase the invasion potential of the alien C4 grass Setaria parviflora (Poaceae) in the Mediterranean Basin

AbstractAim Current climate change is supposed to be beneficial to many biological invaders, especially to C4 alien plants. While several experiments have been dedicated to measuring alien plants’ response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, very few studies have been undertaken to measure the response of alien plants to warming. This study was aimed to test experimentally whether the predicted climate change in the Mediterranean Basin could be beneficial to the alien C4 grass Setaria parviflora (Poir.) Kerguélen.Location Three populations of S. parviflora from Corsica, southern France, were grown in Montpellier, southern France.Methods The C4 alien grass S. parviflora was exposed to artificial climate change conditions for 3 years in open field and in competition with the local native community. We measured the response to artificial warming of +1.5 and +3 °C and artificial drought (−30% precipitation) versus ambient conditions for phenology, biomass and fecundity of S. parviflora. We compared the response of S. parviflora individuals to the response of the local community.Results Artificial warming strongly enhanced the biomass and the fecundity of S. parviflora, while it decreased or did not affect the biomass and fecundity of the local community. The phenology (onset of growth, first spike pollinating and fruit ripeness) of S. parviflora was advanced significantly and explained the changes observed in biomass and fecundity.Main conclusions Here, we report a positive effect of climate change on the growth and fertility of S. parviflora, a C4 alien plant. Our results suggest that climate change predicted for the next decades in the Mediterranean Basin might substantially enhance the performance of S. parviflora, potentially increasing its invasion success.