Water sublimators play a critical role in efficiently managing the high thermal load of spacecraft in a vacuum environment, ensuring their proper functioning. This article focuses on a novel cold plate water sublimator driven by a porous sublimation tube structure, which is still in the theoretical research stage. Numerical methods are employed to study the evaporation, freezing, and sublimation processes, with validation against experimental data. The average absolute error of the four operating conditions is 1.33 K, and the ice layer thickness error is 8.33 %. Additionally, a method to calculate the effective thermal conductivity of porous aluminum foam is proposed, with a model error of 9 %. The sublimator's heat transfer characteristics are significantly influenced by the porosity of the aluminum foam and sublimation tubes. The impacts on temperature behavior, ice thickness, feed water pressure, and stress are carefully examined. Results reveal aluminum foam porosity of 0.7 and sublimation tube porosity of 0.3. Moreover, the study explores how different heat loads affect the sublimator's operation mode. Heat loads above 2 W/cm2 cause evaporation and dryness within the sublimation tube, while excessively small heat loads lead to ice formation and increased stress on the aluminum foam structure. These findings provide valuable insights for water sublimator design.