Mountain Pine Beetle Populations Research Articles

Mountain pine beetle host selection behavior confirms high resistance in Great Basin bristlecone pine

Over the last two decades, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) populations reached epidemic levels across much of western North America, including high elevations where cool temperatures previously limited mountain pine beetle persistence. Many high-elevation pine species are susceptible hosts and experienced high levels of mortality in recent outbreaks, but co-occurring Great Basin bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva) were not attacked. Using no-choice attack box experiments, we compared Great Basin bristlecone pine resistance to mountain pine beetle with that of limber pine (P. flexilis), a well-documented mountain pine beetle host. We confined sets of mountain pine beetles onto 36 pairs of living Great Basin bristlecone and limber pines and recorded beetle status after 48 h. To test the role of induced defenses in Great Basin bristlecone pine resistance, we then repeated the tests on 20 paired sections of Great Basin bristlecone and limber pines that had been recently cut, thereby removing their capacity for induced defensive reactions to an attack. In tests on cut trees, we also investigated the potential for population-level differences in mountain pine beetle host selection behavior by testing beetles from two separate geographic regions. Beetles placed on Great Basin bristlecone pine rarely initiated attacks relative to those placed on limber pine in both studies, regardless of the beetle population source. Our results indicate that Great Basin bristlecone pine has a high level of resistance to mountain pine beetle due at least in part to stimuli that repel pioneering attackers from initiating attacks, even when induced defenses are compromised.

Seasonal shifts in accumulation of glycerol biosynthetic gene transcripts in mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), larvae.

Winter mortality is a major factor regulating population size of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Glycerol is the major cryoprotectant in this freeze intolerant insect. We report findings from a gene expression study on an overwintering mountain pine beetle population over the course of 35 weeks. mRNA transcript levels suggest glycerol production in the mountain pine beetle occurs through glycogenolytic, gluconeogenic and potentially glyceroneogenic pathways, but not from metabolism of lipids. A two-week lag period between fall glycogen phosphorylase transcript and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase transcript up-regulation suggests that gluconeogenesis serves as a secondary glycerol-production process, subsequent to exhaustion of the primary glycogenolytic source. These results provide a first look at the details of seasonal gene expression related to the production of glycerol in the mountain pine beetle.

Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics and Reproductive Success in Post-Fire Lodgepole and Ponderosa Pine Forests in Northeastern Utah.

Fire injury can increase tree susceptibility to some bark beetles (Curculionidae, Scolytinae), but whether wildfires can trigger outbreaks of species such as mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is not well understood. We monitored 1173 lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Doug.) and 599 ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa Doug. ex Law) pines for three years post-wildfire in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah in an area with locally endemic mountain pine beetle. We examined how the degree and type of fire injury influenced beetle attacks, brood production, and subsequent tree mortality, and related these to beetle population changes over time. Mountain pine beetle population levels were high the first two post-fire years in lodgepole pine, and then declined. In ponderosa pine, populations declined each year after initial post-fire sampling. Compared to trees with strip or failed attacks, mass attacks occurred on trees with greater fire injury, in both species. Overall, a higher degree of damage to crowns and boles was associated with higher attack rates in ponderosa pines, but additional injury was more likely to decrease attack rates in lodgepole pines. In lodgepole pine, attacks were initially concentrated on fire-injured trees, but during subsequent years beetles attacked substantial numbers of uninjured trees. In ponderosa pine, attacks were primarily on injured trees each year, although these stands were more heavily burned and had few uninjured trees. In total, 46% of all lodgepole and 56% of ponderosa pines underwent some degree of attack. Adult brood emergence within caged bole sections decreased with increasing bole char in lodgepole pine but increased in ponderosa pine, however these relationships did not scale to whole trees. Mountain pine beetle populations in both tree species four years post-fire were substantially lower than the year after fire, and wildfire did not result in population outbreaks.

Adaptive and neutral markers both show continent-wide population structure of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae).

Assessments of population genetic structure and demographic history have traditionally been based on neutral markers while explicitly excluding adaptive markers. In this study, we compared the utility of putatively adaptive and neutral single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for inferring mountain pine beetle population structure across its geographic range. Both adaptive and neutral SNPs, and their combination, allowed range‐wide structure to be distinguished and delimited a population that has recently undergone range expansion across northern British Columbia and Alberta. Using an equal number of both adaptive and neutral SNPs revealed that adaptive SNPs resulted in a stronger correlation between sampled populations and inferred clustering. Our results suggest that adaptive SNPs should not be excluded prior to analysis from neutral SNPs as a combination of both marker sets resulted in better resolution of genetic differentiation between populations than either marker set alone. These results demonstrate the utility of adaptive loci for resolving population genetic structure in a nonmodel organism.

Elevational shifts in thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a changing climate

Future forests are being shaped by changing climate and disturbances. Climate change is causing large-scale forest declines globally, in addition to distributional shifts of many tree species. Because environmental cues dictate insect seasonality and population success, climate change is also influencing tree-killing bark beetles. The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, is a major disturbance in Pinus forests of the western US. Using a mechanistic, phenology-based demographic model driven by downscaled daily temperature data, we describe recent and future spatial and temporal thermal suitability for mountain pine beetle population growth in a topographically complex region. Trends in model-predicted growth rates among Global Climate Models were similar and suggest that, relative to future trends, mountain pine beetle population growth within the past 60 years was most optimal at middle elevations and least optimal at the lowest and highest elevations. This trend aligns with observed mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality that was greatest at middle elevations between 1997 and 2013, as estimated from Aerial Detection Surveys. However, thermal suitability for optimal phenological synchrony was predicted to shift in recent years, and by the end of the century, the best thermal habitats for mountain pine beetle will be at the lowest and highest elevations. Mechanistic demographic models are valuable tools for modelling future thermal regimes that may be both beneficial and maladaptive for mountain pine beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality.

Prescribed fire does not promote outbreaks of a primary bark beetle at low‐density populations

Summary The causes of bark beetle outbreaks – particularly the role of disturbances – are poorly understood. Stand‐scale disturbances, like fires, can suddenly improve local host susceptibility and may attract beetles; however, whether such increases can lead to outbreaks in post‐disturbance stands is unclear. Using low‐density Dendroctonus ponderosae mountain pine beetle populations in Pinus contorta lodgepole pine forests in western Canada, we investigated whether prescribed fires promote outbreaks or provide only short‐term resources. Proportionally more burned than non‐burned trees were attacked. At one site, beetle attacks increased in response to a resource pulse, but the proportions of attacked trees and numbers of attacks per tree declined over four years after fire. Elsewhere, beetle attacks remained very low. As the resource (phloem) quality of burned trees remained high three years after fire, we propose that post‐fire mortality, resulting in fewer available host trees, can at least partially explain why D. ponderosae did not build up populations in burned stands. Synthesis and applications. Our study emphasizes the importance of examining long‐term trends in fire–bark beetle interactions, and of understanding low‐density beetle populations. Because fire does not seem to promote mountain pine beetle outbreaks, we recommend the continued use of prescribed fire for the general management of P. contorta forests with low‐density beetle populations.

Can Wolbachia (Rickettsiaceae) explain female-biased sex ratios in mountain pine beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)?

AbstractWolbachia Hertig (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) is a genus of endosymbionts that are widespread in insects and can have important implications on population dynamics through cytoplasmic incompatibility or sex-ratio distortion. We considered Wolbachia as a possible explanation for female-biased sex ratios often observed in mountain pine beetle populations, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), a major pest species in western Canada whose most recent outbreak and range expansion has killed many millions of mature lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelmann (Pinaceae). We used wsp primers to screen for Wolbachia in 10 mountain pine beetle populations with varying degrees of female bias in southeast British Columbia and southwest Alberta, Canada. We found no evidence of Wolbachia in these populations and suggest that other factors may explain the sex-ratio bias.

Mountain pine beetle-caused mortality over eight years in two pine hosts in mixed-conifer stands of the southern Rocky Mountains

Eruptive mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, MPB) populations have caused widespread mortality of pines throughout western North America since the late 1990s. Early work by A.D. Hopkins suggested that when alternate host species are available, MPB will prefer to breed in the host to which it has become adapted. In Colorado, epidemic MPB populations that originated in lodgepole pine expanded into mixed-conifer stands containing ponderosa pine, a related host. We evaluated the susceptibility of both hosts to successful MPB colonization in a survey of 19 sites in pine-dominated mixed-conifer stands spanning 140km of the Front Range, CO, USA. In each of three 0.2-ha plots at each site, we (1) assessed trees in the annual flights of 2008–2011 to compare MPB-caused mortality between lodgepole and ponderosa pine; (2) recorded previous MPB-caused tree mortality from 2004–2007 to establish baseline mortality levels; and (3) measured characteristics of the stands (e.g. tree basal area) and sites (e.g. elevation, aspect) that might be correlated with MPB colonization. Uninfested average live basal area of lodgepole and ponderosa pine was 74% of total basal area before 2004. We found that for both species, annual percent basal area of attacked trees was greatest in one year (2009), and was lower in all other years (2004–2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011). Both pine species had similar average total mortality of 38–39% by 2011. Significant predictors of ponderosa pine mortality in a given year were basal area of uninfested ponderosa pine and the previous year’s mortality levels in both ponderosa and lodgepole pine. Lodgepole pine mortality was predicted by uninfested basal areas of both lodgepole and ponderosa pine, and the previous year’s lodgepole pine mortality. These results indicate host selection by MPB from lodgepole pine natal hosts into ponderosa pine the following year, but not the reverse. In both species, diameters of attacked trees within each year were similar, and were progressively smaller the last four years of the study period. Our results suggest that, in contrast to previous reports, ponderosa and lodgepole pine were equally susceptible to MPB infestation in the CO Front Range during our study period. This suggests that forest managers may anticipate similar impacts in both hosts during similar environmental conditions when epidemic-level MPB populations are active in mixed-pine stands.

Mountain Pine Beetle Voltinism and Life History Characteristics across Latitudinal and Elevational Gradients in the Western United States

Substantial genetic variation in development time is known to exist among mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) populations across the western United States. The effect of this variation on geographic patterns in voltinism (generation time) and thermal requirements to produce specific voltinism pathways have not been investigated. The influence of voltinism on fitness traits, body size, and sex ratio is also unclear. We monitored mountain pine beetle voltinism, adult body size, sex ratio, and air temperatures at sites across latitudinal and elevational gradients in the western United States. With the exception of two sites at the coolest and warmest locations, the number of days required to complete a generation was similar. Thermal units required to achieve a generation, however, were significantly less for individuals at the coolest sites. Evolved adaptations explain this pattern, including developmental rates and thresholds that serve to synchronize cohorts and minimize cold-sensitive life stages in winter. These same adaptations reduce the capacity of mountain pine beetle at the warmest sites to take full advantage of increased thermal units, limiting the capacity for bivoltinism within the current realized distribution. Temperature was not correlated with adult size and sex ratio, and size was greatest in host trees other than lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.). Our results provide baseline information for evaluating population responses in a changing climate.

A Comment on “Management for Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Suppression: Does Relevant Science Support Current Policy?”

There are two general approaches for reducing the negative impacts of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, on forests. Direct control involves short-term tactics designed to address current infestations by manipulating mountain pine beetle populations, and includes the use of fire, insecticides, semiochemicals, sanitation harvests, or a combination of these treatments. Indirect control is preventive, and designed to reduce the probability and severity of future infestations within treated areas by manipulating stand, forest and/or landscape conditions by reducing the number of susceptible host trees through thinning, prescribed burning, and/or alterations of age classes and species composition. We emphasize that “outbreak suppression” is not the intent or objective of management strategies implemented for mountain pine beetle in the western United States, and that the use of clear, descriptive language is important when assessing the merits of various treatment strategies.

Developmental mortality increases sex-ratio bias of a size-dimorphic bark beetle.

1. Given sexual size dimorphism, differential mortality owing to body size can lead to sex-biased mortality, proximately biasing sex ratios. This mechanism may apply to mountain pine beetles, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, which typically have female-biased adult populations (2 : 1) with females larger than males. Smaller males could be more susceptible to stresses than larger females as developing beetles overwinter and populations experience high mortality.2. Survival of naturally-established mountain pine beetles during the juvenile stage and the resulting adult sex ratios and body sizes (volume) were studied. Three treatments were applied to vary survival in logs cut from trees containing broods of mountain pine beetles. Logs were removed from the forest either in early winter, or in spring after overwintering below snow or after overwintering above snow. Upon removal, logs were placed at room temperature to allow beetles to complete development under similar conditions.3. Compared with beetles from logs removed in early winter, mortality was higher and the sex ratio was more female-biased in overwintering logs. The bias increased with overwinter mortality. However, sex ratios were female-biased even in early winter, so additional mechanisms, other than overwintering mortality, contributed to the sex-ratio bias. Body volume varied little relative to sex-biased mortality, suggesting other size-independent causes of male-biased mortality.4. Overwintering mortality is considered a major determinant of mountain pine beetle population dynamics. The disproportionate survival of females, who initiate colonisation of live pine trees, may affect population dynamics in ways that have not been previously considered.

Characterisation of attacks made by the mountain pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) during its endemic population phase

AbstractMountain pine beetle (MPB) Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) attacks and overwhelms the defences of vigorous trees during outbreaks by attacking en masse. Low or endemic populations are regulated by host resistance and restricted to colonising weakened trees, where there is a potential trade off between tree defences and habitat quality. Mountain pine beetle populations are typically in the endemic population phase, but MPB attack behaviour and brood productivity in this phase are poorly understood. We located attacks made by beetles from endemic populations in north-central Alberta, Canada and examined galleries constructed on these trees. The distribution of gallery starts on trees was clustered relative to height on the tree, but not related to aspect on the tree bole. We found no Allee effect associated with mate location as over 99% of galleries were constructed by mated females. Productivity was generally low and brood development rarely reached the pupal stage, with one exception that suggests that endemic populations are capable of rapid increase in certain hosts. Egg galleries constructed by unmated females differed in morphology from galleries created by mated females. To understand the dynamics of this eruptive species, we need to identify the conditions under which endemic populations can persist and periodically increase to densities that result in coordinated mass attacks on healthy trees and lead to outbreaks.

Bark beetles and dwarf mistletoe interact to alter downed woody material, canopy structure, and stand characteristics in northern Colorado ponderosa pine

Due to the recent outbreaks of bark beetles in western U.S.A., research has focused on the effects of tree mortality on forest conditions, such as fuel complexes and stand structure. However, most studies have addressed outbreak populations of bark beetles only and there is a lack of information on the effect of multiple endemic, low level populations of biotic disturbance agents that could influence forest dynamics, fuel heterogeneity, and species composition. Downed woody material, fuel parameters and stand characteristics were assessed in areas of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) infested with southwestern dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium vaginatum subsp. cryptopodum), and in areas with endemic populations of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Ips spp. (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) in northern Colorado. Both endemic bark beetles and dwarf mistletoe were associated with more dense stands than uninfested plots and resulted in reducing basal area of live trees. The amount of downed woody material was positively related to time since tree mortality and basal area of bark beetle-attacked trees. There was an increase of up to 10% for fine and coarse downed woody material for every increase of 1m2ha−1 basal area of mortality from mountain pine beetle that was 4–15years after death. The average intensity of dwarf mistletoe infections on live trees was positively related to amount of 10-h downed woody material and negatively associated with percent live ponderosa pine crown. Fuel bed and canopy characteristics were dependent on the presence of both dwarf mistletoe and mountain pine beetle-caused mortality. Together these endemic biotic disturbances have an effect on downed woody material biomass accumulation, fuel arrangements, stand densities and species composition.

Phenology and density-dependent dispersal predict patterns of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) impact

a b s t r a c t For species with irruptive population behavior, dispersal is an important component of outbreak dynamics. We developed and parameterized a mechanistic model describing mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population demographics and dispersal across a landscape. Model components include temperature-dependent phenology, host tree colonization determined by an Allee effect, and random-walk dispersal with motility conditioned by host tree density. The model was param- eterized at a study site in central Idaho, United States (US), and evaluated at an independent site in northern Washington, US. Phloem and air temperatures, MPB spatial impact data from USDA Forest Service aerial detection surveys, and remotely sensed host tree density data were used to parameterize the model using a maximum likelihood approach. At both study sites the model was highly accurate (>84%) in predicting annual pattern formation when the model was re-initiated each year with the loca- tion of new patches of infested trees. Prediction of annual population growth at both sites was also good (>90%), although the model under-predicted area impacted at the Washington site, and at both sites was unable to predict initiation of new small patches. Our model extends previous research by providing a mechanistic description of the link between motility, dispersal and temperature-dependent MPB phenology.

Phenology and density-dependent dispersal predict patterns of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) impact

For species with irruptive population behavior, dispersal is an important component of outbreak dynamics. We developed and parameterized a mechanistic model describing mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population demographics and dispersal across a landscape. Model components include temperature-dependent phenology, host tree colonization determined by an Allee effect, and random-walk dispersal with motility conditioned by host tree density. The model was parameterized at a study site in central Idaho, United States (US), and evaluated at an independent site in northern Washington, US. Phloem and air temperatures, MPB spatial impact data from USDA Forest Service aerial detection surveys, and remotely sensed host tree density data were used to parameterize the model using a maximum likelihood approach. At both study sites the model was highly accurate (>84%) in predicting annual pattern formation when the model was re-initiated each year with the location of new patches of infested trees. Prediction of annual population growth at both sites was also good (>90%), although the model under-predicted area impacted at the Washington site, and at both sites was unable to predict initiation of new small patches. Our model extends previous research by providing a mechanistic description of the link between motility, dispersal and temperature-dependent MPB phenology.

Predictors of bark beetle activity and scale-dependent spatial heterogeneity change during the course of an outbreak in a subalpine forest

Climate conditions and forest structure interact to determine the extent and severity of bark beetle outbreaks, yet the relative importance of each may vary though the course of an outbreak. In 2008, we conducted field surveys and reconstructed forest conditions at multiple stages within a recent mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. At each stage in the outbreak, we examined changes in (1) lodgepole pine mortality and surviving stand structure, (2) the influence of topographic versus stand structure variables on mortality rates, and (3) stand complexity and landscape heterogeneity. Lodgepole pine mortality reduced basal area by 71 %, but only 47 % of stems were killed. Relative to pre-outbreak stands, surviving stands had lower mean dbh (11.0 vs. 17.4 cm), lower basal area (8.5 vs. 29.3 m2 ha−1), lower density (915 vs. 1,393 stems ha−1), and higher proportions of non-host species (23.1 vs. 10.6 % m2 ha−1). Factors predicting mortality rates changed through the course of the outbreak. Tree mortality during the early stage of the outbreak was associated with warm, dry sites and abundant large trees. During the middle and late stages, mortality was associated with stand structure alone. Stand complexity increased, as defined by stand-scale variability in density, basal area, and the proportion of susceptible trees. Landscape heterogeneity decreased according to semi-variograms of tree diameter and basal area. Increased stand complexity may inhibit future MPB population development, but decreased landscape heterogeneity may facilitate outbreak spread across the landscape if a future outbreak were to irrupt.

A GIS-based risk rating of forest insect outbreaks using aerial overview surveys and the local Moran's I statistic

The objective of this study is to provide an approach for assessing the short-term risk of mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) attack over large forested areas based on the spatial-temporal behavior of beetle spread. This is accomplished by integrating GIS, aerial overview surveys, and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) in order to measure the spatial relationships of mountain pine beetle impacts from one year to the next. Specifically, we implement a LISA method called the bivariate local Moran's Ii to estimate the risk of mountain pine beetle attack across the pine distribution of British Columbia, Canada. The bivariate local Moran's Ii provides a means for classifying locations into separate qualitative risk categories that describe insect population dynamics from one year to the next, revealing where mountain pine beetle populations are most likely to increase, stay constant, or decline. The accuracy of the model's prediction of qualitative risk was higher in initial years and lower in later years of the study, ranging from 91% in 2002 to 72% in 2006. The risk rating can be continually updated by utilizing annual overview surveys, thus ensuring that risk prediction remains relatively high in the short-term. Such information can equip forest managers with the ability to allocate mitigation resources for responding to insect epidemics over very large areas.

Population Densities and Tree Diameter Effects Associated With Verbenone Treatments to Reduce Mountain Pine Beetle-Caused Mortality of Lodgepole Pine

Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), is among the primary causes of mature lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta variety latifolia mortality. Verbenone is the only antiaggregant semiochemical commercially available for reducing mountain pine beetle infestation of lodgepole pine. The success of verbenone treatments has varied greatly in previous studies because of differences in study duration, beetle population size, tree size, or other factors. To determine the ability of verbenone to protect lodgepole pine over long-term mountain pine beetle outbreaks, we applied verbenone treatments annually for 3 to 7 yr at five western United States sites. At one site, an outbreak did not develop; at two sites, verbenone reduced lodgepole pine mortality in medium and large diameter at breast height trees, and at the remaining two sites verbenone was ineffective at reducing beetle infestation. Verbenone reduced mountain pine beetle infestation of lodgepole pine trees in treated areas when populations built gradually or when outbreaks in surrounding untreated forests were of moderate severity. Verbenone did not protect trees when mountain pine beetle populations rapidly increase.

Effects of introgression on the genetic population structure of two ecologically and economically important conifer species: lodgepole pine (Pinus contortavar.latifolia) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana)

Forest trees exhibit a remarkable range of adaptations to their environment, but as a result of frequent and long-distance gene flow, populations are often only weakly differentiated. Lodgepole and jack pine hybridize in western Canada, which adds the opportunity for introgression through hybridization to contribute to population structure and (or) adaptive variation. Access to large sample size, high density SNP datasets for these species would improve our ability to resolve population structure, parameterize introgression, and separate the influence of demography from adaptation. To accomplish this, 454 transcriptome reads for lodgepole and jack pine were assembled using Newbler and MIRA, the assemblies mined for SNPs, and 1536 SNPs were selected for typing on lodgepole pine, jack pine, and their hybrids (N = 536). We identified population structure using both Bayesian clustering and discriminate analysis of principle components. Introgressed SNP loci were identified and their influence on observed population structure was assessed. We found that introgressed loci resulted in increased differentiation both within lodgepole and jack pine populations. These findings are timely given the recent mountain pine beetle population expansion in the hybrid zone, and will facilitate future studies of adaptive traits in these ecologically important species.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process models that simulate climate suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks have advanced our understanding of beetle population dynamics; however, there are few studies that have assessed their accuracy across multiple outbreaks or at larger spatial scales. This study used the observed number of trees killed by mountain pine beetles per square kilometer in Oregon and Washington, USA, over the past three decades to quantify and assess the influence of climate and weather variables on beetle activity over longer time periods and larger scales than previously studied. Influences of temperature and precipitation in addition to process model output variables were assessed at annual and climatological time scales. The statistical analysis showed that new attacks are more likely to occur at locations with climatological mean August temperatures >15 degrees C. After controlling for beetle pressure, the variables with the largest effect on the odds of an outbreak exceeding a certain size were minimum winter temperature (positive relationship) and drought conditions in current and previous years. Precipitation levels in the year prior to the outbreak had a positive effect, possibly an indication of the influence of this driver on brood size. Two-year cumulative precipitation had a negative effect, a possible indication of the influence of drought on tree stress. Among the process model variables, cold tolerance was the strongest indicator of an outbreak increasing to epidemic size. A weather suitability index developed from the regression analysis indicated a 2.5x increase in the odds of outbreak at locations with highly suitable weather vs. locations with low suitability. The models were useful for estimating expected amounts of damage (total area with outbreaks) and for quantifying the contribution of climate to total damage. Overall, the results confirm the importance of climate and weather on the spatial expansion of bark beetle outbreaks over time.