Changes In Population Size Research Articles

Geographical Analysis of Population Growth of Soran District (1987-2020)

Population geography is one of the most important topics of human geography, and the study of population has been of interest to researchers since ancient times in the side of (number, size, density, composition and patterns of distribution). In order to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the areas inhabited by the population, and to identify problems and find appropriate solutions to these problems. These studies are significant because they can be used to determine the population growth of the area, which helps to formulate an appropriate scientific plan to serve the population better. The population of the study area has changed a lot in terms of population growth during the study period. Due to the natural (birth and death) and unnatural (migration) increases, this requires research to present the most important changes in population size and their causes, as well as to analyze them. The aim is to analyze population growth and present data and information on this subject, in order to be used by the officials of the district in order to develop appropriate plans to develop the district and provide the best services to its residents. In order to reach the conclusions of the research and on the base to reach the research, we have divided the research into an introduction and two topics in addition to the conclusions and recommendations.

Pitfalls and windfalls of detecting demographic declines using population genetics in long-lived species.

Detecting recent demographic changes is a crucial component of species conservation and management, as many natural populations face declines due to anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change. Genetic methods allow researchers to detect changes in effective population size (Ne) from sampling at a single timepoint. However, in species with long lifespans, there is a lag between the start of a decline in a population and the resulting decrease in genetic diversity. This lag slows the rate at which diversity is lost, and therefore makes it difficult to detect recent declines using genetic data. However, the genomes of old individuals can provide a window into the past, and can be compared to those of younger individuals, a contrast that may help reveal recent demographic declines. To test whether comparing the genomes of young and old individuals can help infer recent demographic bottlenecks, we use forward-time, individual-based simulations with varying mean individual lifespans and extents of generational overlap. We find that age information can be used to aid in the detection of demographic declines when the decline has been severe. When average lifespan is long, comparing young and old individuals from a single timepoint has greater power to detect a recent (within the last 50 years) bottleneck event than comparing individuals sampled at different points in time. Our results demonstrate how longevity and generational overlap can be both a hindrance and a boon to detecting recent demographic declines from population genomic data.

Accelerated farmland bird population declines in European countries after their recent EU accession

Agricultural intensification is a major driver of global biodiversity loss. In Europe, intensification progressed over the 20th century and was accelerated by instruments of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries standing outside the EU until the beginning of the 21st century employed less intensive farming and are considered one of the continent's farmland biodiversity strongholds. Their recent EU accession might be either viewed as a threat to farmland biodiversity due to the availability of funds to increase agricultural production or as an opportunity to implement conservation measures aimed to preserve biodiversity. Here we assessed these possibilities using long-term monitoring data on farmland bird populations in seven CEE countries. We tested whether mean relative abundance and population trends changed after countries' EU accession, and whether such changes also occurred in agricultural management and conservation measures. Both agricultural intensity and spending for agri-environmental and climatic schemes increased when the CEE countries joined the EU. At the same time, farmland bird populations started to decline and their relative abundance was lower after than before EU accession. In addition, increases in fertilizer application were negatively associated with annual changes in relative farmland bird population sizes, indicating a negative impact of intensive agriculture. Taken together, these results indicate that despite the great power of the EU's environmental legislation to improve the population status of species at risk, this does not apply to farmland birds. In their case, the adverse impacts of agricultural intensification most likely overrode the possible benefits of conservation measures. To secure this region as one of the continent's farmland biodiversity strongholds, policy and management actions are urgently needed.

Habitat quality or quantity? Niche marginality across 21 plants and animals suggests differential responses between highland and lowland species to past climatic changes

Climatic changes can affect species distributions, population abundance, and evolution. Such organismal responses could be determined by the amount and quality of available habitats, which can vary independently. In this study, we assessed changes in habitat quantity and quality independently to generate explicit predictions of the species' responses to climatic changes between Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and present day. We built ecological niche models for genetic groups within 21 reptile, mammal, and plant taxa from the Baja California peninsula inhabiting lowland or highland environments. Significant niche divergence was detected for all clades within species, along with significant differences in the niche breadth and area of distribution between northern and southern clades. We quantified habitat quantity from the distribution models, and most clades showed a reduction in distribution area towards LGM. Further, niche marginality (used as a measure of habitat quality) was higher during LGM for most clades, except for northern highland species. Our results suggest that changes in habitat quantity and quality can affect organismal responses independently. This allows the prediction of genomic signatures associated with changes in effective population size and selection pressure that could be explicitly tested from our models.

Zooplankton fecal pellet flux drives the biological carbon pump during the winter–spring transition in a high‐Arctic system

AbstractRecent research highlighted significant marine biological activity during the Arctic winter, with poorly known implications for the biological carbon pump. We used moored instruments to (1) track the development of the pelagic food web of a high‐Arctic marine ecosystem from winter to spring, and (2) assess the role of zooplankton‐mediated processes in the sinking export of particulate organic carbon (POC). Zooplankton collected by a sediment trap at 40 m depth in Kongsfjorden showed a shift in species composition in February coinciding with an inflow of Atlantic water and the return of sunlight. The Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus and the Arctic Calanus glacialis became dominant in the post‐inflow assemblage of large mesozooplankton. However, large copepods were never abundant (0.3–4.6 ind m−3) in January–April in the upper 40 m. Despite the low chlorophyll fluorescence, POC export increased substantially, from 2–13 mg C m−2 d−1 in January–February to 13–35 mg C m−2 d−1 in March–April 2014. By late March, zooplankton fecal pellets contributed largely (23–100%) to this significant POC export before the phytoplankton bloom. The lack of change in copepod and euphausiid population sizes suggests that enhanced feeding activity in the surface layer supported the increasing fecal pellet export. Our results revealed the swift response of active zooplankton in winter, evidenced by increased carbon export, to improved food availability.

Temporal Changes in Geographic Range and Population Size of the Santa Cruz Black Salamander

Abstract The Santa Cruz black salamander Aneides niger is a priority 3 California species of special concern with a restricted geographic range confined to the Santa Cruz Mountains. Anecdotal observations suggest that the species was relatively abundant in the early 1900s, but it has become more difficult to find in the past few decades. To better understand if the species has undergone population size fluctuations, we analyzed mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data to examine levels of genetic variation and phylogeographic structure, and test for signatures of population size change. We then reconstructed the climatic suitability for the species to 1) determine if past climate fluctuations could have influenced range size and genetic diversity, and 2) estimate the effects of future climate change on geographic range suitability as a proxy for possible future population size change. Genetic analyses detected low levels of genetic variation and a general lack of genetic structuring, suggesting a recent genetic bottleneck. While neutrality tests of individual loci were nonsignificant, skyline plot and isolation-with-migration analyses detected a relatively recent reduction in population size. Interpretation of these genetic results should consider the limited number of localities and individuals sampled for this species. Climatic suitability for Santa Cruz black salamanders was much lower during the last glacial maximum, which could be the cause of the detected historical change in population size. Future projections of climatic suitability under a high-emission scenario suggest a dramatic geographic range restriction to coastal areas. These projections highlight the need for the protection of coastal habitat patches to preserve existing coastal populations, and to maintain connectivity between coastal and inland habitats to allow the westward movement of populations and genes in response to climate change.

Mathematical biases in the calculation of the Living Planet Index lead to overestimation of vertebrate population decline

The Living Planet Index (LPI) measures the average change in population size of vertebrate species over recent decades and has been repeatedly used to assess the changing state of nature. The LPI indicates that vertebrate populations have decreased by almost 70% over the last 50 years. This is in striking contrast with current studies based on the same population time series data that show that increasing and decreasing populations are balanced on average. Here, we examine the methodological pipeline of calculating the LPI to search for the source of this discrepancy. We find that the calculation of the LPI is biased by several mathematical issues which impose an imbalance between detected increasing and decreasing trends and overestimate population declines. Rather than indicating that vertebrate populations do not substantially change, our findings imply that we need better measures for providing a balanced picture of current biodiversity changes. We also show some modifications to improve the reliability of the LPI.

Does coevolution in refugia drive mimicry in bumble bees? Insights from a South Asian mimicry group.

Müllerian mimicry was proposed to be an example of a coevolved mutualism promoted by population isolation in glacial refugia. This, however, has not been well supported in butterfly models. Here, we use genomic data to test this theory while examining the population genetics behind mimetic diversification in a pair of co-mimetic bumble bees, Bombus breviceps Smith and Bombus trifasciatus Smith. In both lineages, populations were structured by geography but not as much by color pattern, suggesting sharing of color alleles across regions of restricted gene flow and formation of mimicry complexes in the absence of genetic differentiation. Demographic analyses showed mismatches between historical effective population size changes and glacial cycles, and niche modeling revealed only mild habitat retraction during glaciation. Moreover, mimetic subpopulations of the same color form in the two lineages only in some cases exhibit similar population history and genetic divergence. Therefore, the current study supports a more complex history in this comimicry than a simple refugium-coevolution model.

Biases in ARG-Based Inference of Historical Population Size in Populations Experiencing Selection.

Inferring the demographic history of populations provides fundamental insights into species dynamics and is essential for developing a null model to accurately study selective processes. However, background selection and selective sweeps can produce genomic signatures at linked sites that mimic or mask signals associated with historical population size change. While the theoretical biases introduced by the linked effects of selection have been well established, it is unclear whether ancestral recombination graph (ARG)-based approaches to demographic inference in typical empirical analyses are susceptible to misinference due to these effects. To address this, we developed highly realistic forward simulations of human and Drosophila melanogaster populations, including empirically estimated variability of gene density, mutation rates, recombination rates, purifying, and positive selection, across different historical demographic scenarios, to broadly assess the impact of selection on demographic inference using a genealogy-based approach. Our results indicate that the linked effects of selection minimally impact demographic inference for human populations, although it could cause misinference in populations with similar genome architecture and population parameters experiencing more frequent recurrent sweeps. We found that accurate demographic inference of D. melanogaster populations by ARG-based methods is compromised by the presence of pervasive background selection alone, leading to spurious inferences of recent population expansion, which may be further worsened by recurrent sweeps, depending on the proportion and strength of beneficial mutations. Caution and additional testing with species-specific simulations are needed when inferring population history with non-human populations using ARG-based approaches to avoid misinference due to the linked effects of selection.

Territory occupation sequence and population change 2005–2019 in a satellite versus core area for Grasshopper Warblers Locustella naevia

Because of habitat preferences and variation at a landscape level, a species’ distribution tends to show a level of aggregation. In the Grasshopper Warbler Locustella naevia, the distribution is linked to suitable breeding habitats of open grassy and herbaceous grounds, often adjacent to water. Consequently, the presence of the Grasshopper Warbler at landscape level will consist of core and satellite areas. In theory, birds can sense habitat quality and should occupy territories within those areas based on territory quality. It might also result in different population trends between different areas in the landscape. I tested these assumptions through a 15-year study in a satellite area, comparing the results to a nearby core area. In both areas, the males occupy a territory based on the perceived attractiveness, and general patterns of the territory utilization were similar between areas. Territory density was lower and the males arrived later in the satellite area, thereby confirming the satellite/core area relationship between the study areas. In the core area, no significant change in population size was noted, while in the satellite area, the population decreased significantly.

Non-Additive Axiologies in Large Worlds

Is the overall value of a world just the sum of values contributed by each value-bearing entity in that world? Additively separable axiologies (like total utilitarianism, prioritarianism, and critical level views) say 'yes', but non-additive axiologies (like average utilitarianism, rank-discounted utilitarianism, and variable value views) say 'no'. This distinction appears to be practically important: among other things, additive axiologies generally assign great importance to large changes in population size, and therefore tend to strongly prioritize the long-term survival of humanity over the interests of the present generation. Non-additive axiologies, on the other hand, need not assign great importance to large changes in population size. We show, however, that when there is a large enough `background population' unaffected by our choices, a wide range of non-additive axiologies converge in their implications with additive axiologies—for instance, average utilitarianism converges with critical-level utilitarianism and various egalitarian theories converge with prioritarianism. We further argue that real-world background populations may be large enough to make these limit results practically significant. This means that arguments from the scale of potential future populations for the astronomical importance of avoiding existential catastrophe, and other arguments in practical ethics that seem to presuppose additive separability, may succeed in practice whether or not we accept additive separability as a basic axiological principle.

A framework for studying the effects of offshore wind energy development on birds and bats in the Eastern United States

Offshore wind energy development (OWED), while a key strategy for reducing carbon emissions, has potential negative effects to wildlife that should be examined to inform decision making and adaptive management as the industry expands. We present a conceptual framework to guide the long-term study of potential effects to birds and bats from OWED. This framework includes a focus on exposure and vulnerability as key determinants of risk. For birds and bats that are exposed to OWED, there are three main effects of interest that may impact survival and productivity: 1) collision mortality, 2) behavioral responses, including avoidance, displacement, and attraction, and 3) habitat-mediated effects to prey populations. If these OWED effects cause changes in survival and/or breeding success (e.g., fitness), they have the potential for population-level consequences, including changes in population size and structure. Understanding the influence of ecological drivers on exposure and effect parameters can help to disentangle the potential impacts of OWED from other stressors. We use this theoretical framework to summarize existing relevant knowledge and identify current priority research questions (n=22) for the eastern United States, where large-scale development of OWED is primarily in the planning and early construction phase. We also identify recommendations for study design and further prioritization of research topics.

Historical Demography and Climate Driven Range Shifts in the Blue-spotted Salamander Under the Climate Change Scenarios

This study integrates phylogeography with distributional analysis to understand the demographic history and range dynamics of a limited dispersal capacity amphibian species, Blue-spotted Salamander (Ambystoma laterale), under several climate change scenarios. For this we used an ecological niche modeling approach, together with Bayesian based demographic analysis, to develop inferences regarding this species' demographic history and range dynamics. The current model output was mostly congruent with the present distribution of the Blue-spotted Salamander. However, under both the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum bioclimatic conditions, the model predicted a substantially narrower distribution than the present. These predictions showed almost no suitable area in the current distribution range of the species during almost the last 22.000 y before present (ybp). The predictions indicated that the distribution of this species shifted from eastern coast of northern North America to the southern part of the current distribution range of the species. The Bayesian Skyline Plot analysis, which provided good resolution of the effective population size changes over the Blue-spotted Salamander history, was mostly congruent with ecological niche modeling predictions for this species. This study provides the first investigation of the Blue-spotted Salamander’s late-Quaternary history based on ecological niche modeling and Bayesian-based demographic analysis. In terms of the main result of this study, we found that the species' present genetic structure has been substantially affected by past climate changes, and this species has reached current distribution range almost from nothing since the Last Glacial Maximum.

Contribution of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Rwanda (1992-2022)

This study examines the impact of changes in population size on economic growth in Rwanda between 1992 and 2022. The research methodology involves the use of secondary data from World Bank development indicators. The key variables analysed include population size, gross capital formation expenditure, and gross domestic product growth rate. A multivariate time series analysis was used to examine the impact of population on economic growth in this study. Diagnostic tests were conducted, and the results indicated that the model was sound. The variables were not significantly affected by heteroskedasticity and serial correlation problems. During the unit root test, it was found that all variables were stationary at the level using intercept and trend. This led to the use of the Ordinary Least Square model. The findings reveal a complex relationship between population dynamics, gross capital formation, and economic growth in Rwanda. The R-squared value was found to be close to one, indicating that population growth and gross capital formation explain economic growth to the greatest extent. The findings from the study showed that population has negative relationship with economic growth. Gross capital formation also plays a crucial role in driving economic growth by facilitating investment activities across different sectors.

Computationally Efficient Demographic History Inference from Allele Frequencies with Supervised Machine Learning.

Inferring past demographic history of natural populations from genomic data is of central concern in many studies across research fields. Previously, our group had developed dadi, a widely used demographic history inference method based on the allele frequency spectrum (AFS) and maximum composite-likelihood optimization. However, dadi's optimization procedure can be computationally expensive. Here, we present donni (demography optimization via neural network inference), a new inference method based on dadi that is more efficient while maintaining comparable inference accuracy. For each dadi-supported demographic model, donni simulates the expected AFS for a range of model parameters then trains a set of Mean Variance Estimation neural networks using the simulated AFS. Trained networks can then be used to instantaneously infer the model parameters from future genomic data summarized by an AFS. We demonstrate that for many demographic models, donni can infer some parameters, such as population size changes, very well and other parameters, such as migration rates and times of demographic events, fairly well. Importantly, donni provides both parameter and confidence interval estimates from input AFS with accuracy comparable to parameters inferred by dadi's likelihood optimization while bypassing its long and computationally intensive evaluation process. donni's performance demonstrates that supervised machine learning algorithms may be a promising avenue for developing more sustainable and computationally efficient demographic history inference methods.

Detecting Moving Wildlife Using the Time Difference between Two Thermal Airborne Images

Wildlife damage to agriculture is serious in Japan; therefore, it is important to understand changes in wildlife population sizes. Although several studies have been conducted to detect wildlife from drone images, behavioral changes (such as wildlife escaping when a drone approaches) have been confirmed. To date, the use of visible and near-infrared images has been limited to the daytime because many large mammals, such as sika deer (Cervus nippon), are crepuscular. However, it is difficult to detect wildlife in the thermal images of urban areas that are not open and contain various heat spots. To address this issue, a method was developed in a previous study to detect moving wildlife using pairs of time-difference thermal images. However, the user’s accuracy was low. In the current study, two methods are proposed for extracting moving wildlife using pairs of airborne thermal images and deep learning models. The first method was to judge grid areas with wildlife using a deep learning classification model. The second method detected each wildlife species using a deep learning object detection model. The proposed methods were then applied to pairs of airborne thermal images. The classification test accuracies of “with deer” and “without deer” were >85% and >95%, respectively. The average precision of detection, precision, and recall were >85%. This indicates that the proposed methods are practically accurate for monitoring changes in wildlife populations and can reduce the person-hours required to monitor a large number of thermal remote-sensing images. Therefore, efforts should be made to put these materials to practical use.

Comparison of Bayesian Coalescent Skyline Plot Models for Inferring Demographic Histories.

Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models are widely used to infer demographic histories. The first (non-Bayesian) coalescent skyline plot model assumed a known genealogy as data, while subsequent models and implementations jointly inferred the genealogy and demographic history from sequence data, including heterochronous samples. Overall, there exist multiple different Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models which mainly differ in two key aspects: (i) how changes in population size are modeled through independent or autocorrelated prior distributions, and (ii) how many change-points in the demographic history are used, where they occur and if the number is pre-specified or inferred. The specific impact of each of these choices on the inferred demographic history is not known because of two reasons: first, not all models are implemented in the same software, and second, each model implementation makes specific choices that the biologist cannot influence. To facilitate a detailed evaluation of Bayesian coalescent skyline plot models, we implemented all currently described models in a flexible design into the software RevBayes. Furthermore, we evaluated models and choices on an empirical dataset of horses supplemented by a small simulation study. We find that estimated demographic histories can be grouped broadly into two groups depending on how change-points in the demographic history are specified (either independent of or at coalescent events). Our simulations suggest that models using change-points at coalescent events produce spurious variation near the present, while most models using independent change-points tend to over-smooth the inferred demographic history.

Research on the Decoupling Relationship between Transportation Land and Population Growth: A Case of Guangdong Province in China

The imbalance between the population, transportation, and construction is an important factor affecting coordinated regional development in China. Using transportation land area and population data from 2010, 2015, and 2020 in 121 counties (cities and districts) of Guangdong Province, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in transportation land and population structure. It explores the relationship between transportation land and population size changes using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and decoupling models. Research suggests the following: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the per capita transportation land in various districts and counties of Guangdong Province showed a hierarchical structure of “low center and high periphery”. Conversely, the proportion of transportation land to construction land displayed a “high center and low periphery” characteristic. (2) During the same period, the total amount of transportation land in the peripheral areas of the Pearl River Delta was higher than that in the PRD (the Pearl River Delta) and the gap widened each year. Meanwhile, the proportion of transportation land to construction land in the peripheral areas of the Pearl River Delta was consistently higher than that in the PRD. (3) From 2010 to 2015, the relationship between population growth and transportation land in Guangdong Province showed a hierarchical pattern, while from 2015 to 2020, the pattern became more complex, and regional imbalance intensified. The decoupling results of PRD showed weak decoupling and expanding negative decoupling from 2010 to 2020. The peripheral areas of the Pearl River Delta are characterized by strong negative decoupling and expanding negative decoupling. Research has shown that although Guangdong Province is one of the most developed provinces in China, the mismatch between transportation land and population size in economically underdeveloped areas has become increasingly severe, with changes in the provincial population distribution pattern. The decoupling phenomenon between the transportation land and population is very obvious, and the policy of achieving regional balanced development through transportation infrastructure construction needs to be reviewed.

Impact of Quaternary Amazonian river dynamics on the diversification of uakari monkeys (genus Cacajao)

AbstractAimThe central and western Amazonia underwent several landscape changes during the Quaternary. Whereas the Riverine Barrier Hypothesis is traditionally used to explain the influence of rivers on speciation, processes such as river rearrangements have been overlooked to explain the geographic distribution and evolutionary history of Amazonia biota. Here, we tested how river rearrangements influenced the evolutionary history of uakari monkeys, genus Cacajao, a primate genus primarily associated with seasonally flooded forests in central and western Amazonia.LocationCentral and Western Amazonia.TaxonThe genus Cacajao, including the black uakaris (C. melanocephalus, C. ayresi, C. hosomi); and the bald‐headed uakaris (C. calvus, C. amuna, C. rubicundus, C. ucayalii, C. novaesi).MethodsWe performed a continuous phylogeographic analysis using 77 cytochrome b sequences to identify the origin and dispersal of Cacajao lineages. We used genome‐wide SNP variation (ddRADseq) to investigate population structure, gene flow and demographic history in Cacajao populations and used digital elevation models to identify landscape and riverscape characteristics that may have influenced the geographic distribution of Cacajao.ResultsOur continuous phylogeographic reconstruction pointed out that the ancestral Cacajao lineage occupied the flooded forests of the Solimões River, in central Amazonia, at ~1.7 Mya and descendant lineages dispersed throughout central and western Amazonia more recently. We identified gene flow in both black and bald‐headed uakari populations, even across rivers considered barriers (e.g. the Negro River). Landscape analysis showed that river rearrangements influenced the geographic distribution and population structure in Cacajao. Historical demographic analyses suggest varied scenarios of population size changes among Cacajao monkeys consistent with periods of intense dynamism in flooded habitats and the formation of non‐flooded upland forests.Main ConclusionOur results support that the river rearrangements have shaped the geographic distribution and divergence of recently diverged Cacajao lineages. Landscape and riverscape changes, along with retractions of the flooded forests, isolated some Cacajao populations in floodplain areas. Our study also suggests that these events led to the recent changes in demographic histories in species with a restricted geographic distribution.

A flash in the pan? The population dynamics of a dominant pioneer species in tropical dry forest succession

AbstractGlobally, around half of all tropical forests are secondary communities which are recovering from previous disturbances. In these communities, dominant pioneers play a critical role in the successional dynamics due their ability to modify the environment, and thus to facilitate or hinder the performance of other species. In this study, we examined the population dynamics of the dominant pioneer species, Mimosa acantholoba var. eurycarpa, in a tropical dry forest during the process of secondary succession. We collected data from permanent plots over a period of 13 years and used integral projection models to analyze the vital rates and changes in population size. Most vital rates were negatively related to successional age, with resprouting, survival and recruitment of individuals responding more strongly, and individual growth rate more weakly. These vital‐rate trends translated into significant variation of population size over succession, with a maximum size at year four and a rapid decline thereafter. Overall, our findings suggest that this species benefits from its ability to display a large number of resprouts in very early stages of succession, contributing to the rapid increase in population density. However, as succession unfolds, a lack of resprouting and a decline in survival reduce its population size, to the point of local extinction. These results highlight the importance of resprouting in the early dynamics of tropical dry forest communities recovering from disturbance.