Proxy For Population Research Articles

How Data-Poor Countries Remain Data Poor: Underestimation of Human Settlements in Burkina Faso as Observed from Nighttime Light Data

The traditional ways of measuring global sustainable development and economic development schemes and their progress suffer from a number of serious shortcomings. Remote sensing and specifically nighttime light has become a popular supplement to official statistics by providing an objective measure of human settlement that can be used as a proxy for population and economic development measures. With the increased availability and use of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) and data in social science, it has played an important role in data collection, including measuring human development and economic growth. Numerous studies are using nighttime light data to analyze dynamic regions such as expansions of urban areas and rapid industrialization often highlight the problem of saturation in urban centers with high light intensity. However, the quality of nighttime light data and its appropriateness for analyzing areas and regions with low and fluctuating levels of light have rarely been questioned or studied. This study examines the accuracy of DMSP-OLS and VIIRS-DNB by analyzing 147 communities in Burkina Faso to provide insights about problems related to the study of areas with a low intensity of nighttime light during the studied period from 1992 to 2012. It found that up to 57% of the communities studied were undetectable throughout the period, and only 9% of communities studied had a 100% detection rate. Unsurprisingly, the result provides evidence that detection rates in both datasets are particularly low (3%) for settlements with 0–9999 inhabitants, as well as for larger settlements with population of 10,000–24,999 (28%). Cross-checking with VIIRS-DNB for the year 2012 shows similar results. These findings suggest that careful consideration must be given to the use of nighttime light data in research and global comparisons to monitor the progress of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals, especially when including developing countries with areas containing low electrification rates and low population density.

Supply and demand in prehistory? Economics of Neolithic mining in northwest Europe

The extent to which non-agricultural production in prehistory had cost-benefit motivations has long been a subject of discussion. This paper addresses the topic by looking at the evidence for Neolithic quarrying and mining in Britain and continental northwest Europe and asks whether changing production through time was influenced by changing demand. Radiocarbon dating of mine and quarry sites is used to define periods of use. These are then correlated with a likely first-order source of demand, the size of the regional populations around the mines, inferred from a radiocarbon-based population proxy. There are significant differences between the population and mine-date distributions. Analysis of pollen data using the REVEALS method to reconstruct changing regional land cover patterns shows that in Britain activity at the mines and quarries is strongly correlated with evidence for forest clearance by incoming Neolithic populations, suggesting that mine and quarry production were a response to the demand that this created. The evidence for such a correlation between mining and clearance in continental northwest Europe is much weaker. Here the start of large-scale mining may be a response to the arrival by long-distance exchange of high-quality prestige jade axes from a source in the Italian Alps.

New Method for Improving Spatial Allocation Accuracy of Industrial Energy Consumption and Implications for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Emissions in China.

The variety of spatial allocation methods for industrial sources can significantly affect the distribution of a gridded pollutant emission inventory. Although uncertainties in current emissions inventories have been discussed extensively, uncertainties resulting from improper spatial proxies have rarely been evaluated. Here, a new subnational fuel data disaggregation method using points-of-interest (POI) data (DPOI) for industrial sources was developed. We compared the accuracies of DPOI and six other spatial allocation methods at the city scale and within the city and found that DPOI had the highest accuracy. Using a population proxy may over-estimate the industrial energy consumption in urban centers or other densely populated areas. We further applied the DPOI to establish a 0.05° × 0.05° gridded industrial polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emissions inventory in 2016. There are obvious spatial differences in industrial PAH emissions, and high industrial PAH emissions are mainly concentrated in North China and East China. Although some limitations exist, we believe that POI data and the DPOI method have great potential in the field of gridded pollutant emissions inventories and that they can further reduce the spatial allocation uncertainty of gridded emissions inventories.

Holocene land cover and population dynamics in Southern France

This paper describes long-term changes in human population and vegetation cover in southern France, using summed radiocarbon probability distributions and site count data as population proxies and information from fossil pollen cores as a proxy for past land cover. Southern France is particularly well-suited to this type of study as a result of previous programmes of intensive survey work and excavation in advance of large-scale construction. These make it possible to calibrate the larger scale occupation patterns in the light of the visibility issues created by the burial of archaeological sites beneath alluvial sediments. For purposes of analysis, the region was divided into three biogeographical zones (BGZ), going from the Mediterranean coast to the middle Rhône valley (MRV). All the different population proxies in a given zone show broadly similar patterns of fluctuation, though with varying levels of resolution. The long-term patterns in the different zones all show significant differences from the overall regional pattern, but this is especially the case for the non-Mediterranean middle Rhône area. Cluster analysis of pollen samples has been carried out to identify the main regional land cover types through the Holocene, which are increasingly dominated by open types over time. A variety of other pollen indicators show evidence of increasing human impact through time. Measures of human impact correlate strongly with the population proxies. A series of thresholds are identified in the population–human impact trajectory that are related to other changes in the cultural sequence. The lack of independent climate data for the region means that its impact cannot currently be assessed with confidence. However, for the later periods, it is clear that the incorporation of southern France into larger regional systems played a major role in accounting for changes in land cover and settlement.

The periosteum dilemma in bioarcheology: Normal growth or pathological condition? – 3D discriminating microscopic approach

Periosteal reactions are frequently used as a proxy for past populations' health. However, macroscopic evidence of periosteal activity observed on infant's dry bones can be difficult to interpret in terms of normal growth process or pathological changes. This could lead to over-interpretation of a poor health status during childhood in past populations.The aim of our study is to propose new distinctive micro-morphological criteria to differentiate between non-adult dry bones presenting physiological sub-periosteal bone growth and periosteal reaction due to pathological conditions.We sampled 12 perinatal human tibiae from two osteoarcheological collections and proceeded a 3D microstructural analysis of the canal network of cortical bone using micro-CT.3D canal network organization in cortical bone allowed us to distinguish physiological from pathological periosteal reactions. Moreover, our study revealed different types of organization of the cortical bone microstructure corresponding to various stages of bone remodeling.This exploratory study shows the advantages of a non-destructive microscopic analysis using 3D imaging of the cortical canal network organization in order to distinguish between physiological and pathological bone production during early growth. This will contribute to a better understanding of past populations' epidemiology.

The Comings and Goings of Sheep and Pottery in the Coastal Desert of Namaqualand, South Africa

ABSTRACTThis paper evaluates chronological trends in the presence and absence of domestic animal bone (sheep, goat, and cattle) and pottery in Namaqualand, the proposed gateway to the rest of South Africa for early herders or hunter-gatherers with sheep and ceramics. We update date calibrations with local ΔR corrections and mixtures of recent calibration curves and include five previously unpublished dates. We use histograms of calibrated medians, sorted in 100-year bins, to assess sustained regional patterns with dates associated with domestic animal bone and pottery (n = 73). While too small to be useful as a population proxy, the current set of dates does reveal three pulses of occupation separated by two clear gaps, which we evaluate with a Bayesian model of three sequential phases. The model's boundaries are used as estimates of the dates of Early (AD 80–210), Middle (AD 490–790), and Late (AD 1180–1690) occupational phases separated by two substantial lapses of 280 and 380 years, respectively. The alternating phases of presence and absence are suggestively correlated with climate shifts, leading to a discussion of the idea that effective moisture was a crucial factor in choosing whether to occupy Namaqualand. The set of archaeological dates has greater temporal and spatial resolution than many regional climate data, so we suggest that these trends may more accurately reflect the variable conditions specific to Namaqualand, at least until they are refined by future climate research.

Early Neolithic population dynamics in the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain

In this study, we reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic of the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain using frequency of radiocarbon dates as a population proxy. The method of summed calibrated radiocarbon probability distributions is applied to a set of dates recently published in Bulgaria and Hungary. The aim is to test the hypothesis of the Neolithic demo­graphic transition (NDT) in these regions and to compare the patterns between these two and neighbouring regions. The results show that episodes of population growth occurred in both regions, which is in partial agreement with the predictions of the NDT theory. Population growth is detected, but it is followed by a bust, rather than stabilisation as predicted for the second phase of the NDT.

Early Neolithic population dynamics in the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain

In this study, we reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic of the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain using frequency of radiocarbon dates as a population proxy. The method of summed calibrated radiocarbon probability distributions is applied to a set of dates recently published in Bulgaria and Hungary. The aim is to test the hypothesis of the Neolithic demo­graphic transition (NDT) in these regions and to compare the patterns between these two and neighbouring regions. The results show that episodes of population growth occurred in both regions, which is in partial agreement with the predictions of the NDT theory. Population growth is detected, but it is followed by a bust, rather than stabilisation as predicted for the second phase of the NDT.

Seasonal population estimates based on night-time lights

Abstracts The objective of this paper is to present a method for estimating seasonally specific ambient population counts. The central assumption is that the variation in observed night-lights is a valid proxy for ambient population. Island populations are used for validation, where it is possible to derive estimates of ambient population from national statistics. The method is then applied to the whole of Greece. The validation shows a strong correlation amongst night-lights derived estimates and the reference dataset. Based on the proposed method, national maps are produced showing the month when seasonality is in its peak, the peak value during that month and the overall length of the season, in terms of how many months exceed a certain threshold. Different seasonality patterns are revealed. An advantage of the proposed method, compared to other contemporary approaches, is that it is based on public domain, global data.

Population Fluctuation and the Adoption of Food Production in Prehistoric Korea: Using Radiocarbon Dates as a Proxy for Population Change

AbstractPopulation growth has been evoked both as a causal factor and consequence of the transition to agriculture. The use of radiocarbon (14C) dates as proxies for population allows for reevaluations of population as a variable in the transition to agriculture. In Korea, numerous rescue excavations during recent decades have offered a wealth of14C data for this application. A summed probability distribution (SPD) of14C dates is investigated to reconstruct population trends preceding and following adoptions of food production in prehistoric Korea. Important cultivars were introduced to Korea in two episodes: millets during the Chulmun Period (ca. 6000–1500 BCE) and rice during the Mumun Period (ca. 1500–300 BCE). The SPD suggests that while millet production had little impact on Chulmun populations, a prominent surge in population appears to have followed the introduction of rice. The case in prehistoric Korea demonstrates that the adoption of food production does not lead inevitably towards sustained population growth. Furthermore, the data suggest that the transition towards intensive agriculture need not occur under conditions of population pressure resulting from population growth. Rather, intensive rice farming in prehistoric Korea began during a period of population stagnation.

Using multitemporal night-time lights data to compare regional development in Russia and China, 1992–2012

ABSTRACTMultitemporal remotely sensed night-time lights data are often used as a proxy for population and economic growth, with China the most commonly researched area. Less is known about how lights respond to socioeconomic decline. Russia, a depopulating neighbour of China that experienced severe economic turmoil following the Soviet Union’s disintegration in 1991, provides a useful case study to investigate the relationships between lights, depopulation, and economic contraction at national and provincial scales. We use the U.S. Air Force Defence Meteorological Satellite Program-Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) V4 annual stable lights composites to compare changes in lights in Russia and China from 1992 to 2012. These two countries share a history of communist planning but have experienced divergent development patterns since the collapse of communism in the early 1990s. At the national scale, the total amount of lights in Russia declined between 1992 and 2012, while China’s lights more than doubled. At the provincial scale, Russia exhibited an increase in inequality of lights per federal subject, while China’s provinces became more equal to one another, particularly as Western China caught up to the more developed East Coast. To understand what may have driven these changes in lights, relationships with population and gross domestic product (GDP) are examined from 2000 to 2012 using panel regression models. While changes in population and GDP explain 81% of change over time in lights within China’s provinces, they explain only 6% of change within Russia’s provinces. The strong relationships found between changes in lights, population, and GDP in rapidly growing, urbanizing China appear to break down in areas undergoing depopulation and economic contraction.

The streetlight effect in climate change research on Africa

Abstract The streetlight effect is the tendency for researchers to focus on particular questions, cases and variables for reasons of convenience or data availability rather than broader relevance, policy import, or construct validity. To what extent does the streetlight effect condition the state of knowledge about climate change in Africa? Analysis of Google Scholar search results, both general and within leading climate change-related journals, reveals that two proxies for objective need, population and land mass, are associated with a higher volume of scholarly attention. Countries with greater exposure to the negative effects of climate change and countries with less adaptive capacity do not receive more scholarly attention. Rather, I find evidence that factors like British colonial history, strong civil liberties, and to a lesser extent political stability − factors not directly related to risks from climate change − affect scholarly attention. The streetlight effect is evident in climate change research on Africa.

Unexpected pattern of pearl millet genetic diversity among ethno-linguistic groups in the Lake Chad Basin

Despite of a growing interest in considering the role of sociological factors in seed exchanges and their consequences on the evolutionary dynamics of agro-biodiversity, very few studies assessed the link between ethno-linguistic diversity and genetic diversity patterns in small-holder farming systems. This is key for optimal improvement and conservation of crop genetic resources. Here, we investigated genetic diversity at 17 SSR markers of pearl millet landraces (varieties named by farmers) in the Lake Chad Basin. 69 pearl millet populations, representing 27 landraces collected in eight ethno-linguistic farmer groups, were analyzed. We found that the farmers’ local taxonomy was not a good proxy for population’s genetic differentiation as previously shown at smaller scales. Our results show the existence of a genetic structure of pearl millet mainly associated with ethno-linguistic diversity in the western side of the lake Chad. It suggests there is a limit to gene flow between landraces grown by different ethno-linguistic groups. This result was rather unexpected, because of the highly outcrossing mating system of pearl millet, the high density of pearl millet fields all along the green belt of this Sahelian area and the fact that seed exchanges among ethno-linguistic groups are known to occur. In the eastern side of the Lake, the pattern of genetic diversity suggests a larger efficient circulation of pearl millet genes between ethno-linguistic groups that are less numerous, spatially intermixed and, for some of them, more prone to exogamy. Finally, other historical and environmental factors which may contribute to the observed diversity patterns are discussed.

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

Abstract. Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.

Settlement Sizes and Agricultural Production Territories: A Remote Sensing Case Study for the Early Bronze Age in Upper Mesopotamia

Archaeological data from Upper Mesopotamia provide ample information on the extent of agricultural production territories around tell-based nucleated settlements as well as site sizes —as a proxy for ancient populations. In following, this study investigates the potential relationship between settlement sizes and food production levels during the Early Bronze Age. To start with, CORONA imagery is used to document landscape evidences of past production and settlement sizes. Second, a biological crop-growth model is built over AVHRR-NDVI data, coupled with precipitation values from the region. This model makes it possible to estimate annual production amount at sample locations. Finally, modern day production analogies are constructed in order to explore modelling data and to understand rain-fed agricultural strategies in the Early Bronze Age. CORONA-AVHRR remote sensing survey results reveal no significant relationship between archaeological sites and their production territories (r=0.40). Likewise, the relationship between site areas and estimated staples production is also a weak one (r=0.30). On the other hand, if one considers biennial fallowing as a production strategy, the relationship becomes significant (r=0.85). Furthermore, model data suggests only settlements smaller than 50 hectares were potentially practicing biennial fallowing —suggesting population pressure on production at larger settlements. Statements of significance The study challenges the normative assumption that there is a direct relationship between populations and local agricultural production. The analysis is possible only when the production landscapes are considered as dynamic environments, responding to changes in the environment, but also influenced by the choice of production strategies. Data availability Production statistics (tons/ha) are available for the years between 1982 and 2006 in shp format as a supplement to this paper.

Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke Events in Methamphetamine Users: A 10-Year Follow-Up Study.

Long-term follow-up data regarding the association between methamphetamine use and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications are scarce. We investigated the risk of complications in methamphetamine users over a decade. A total of 1,315 inpatients treated for methamphetamine use were recruited from the Psychiatric Inpatient Medical Claims database in Taiwan between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2000, and matched with a population proxy comparison group at a ratio of 1:4 through propensity score matching. All patients were monitored for any incident complication until December 31, 2010. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk of ICD-9-CM cardiovascular diseases and stroke events. The patients were mostly male, and approximately half were younger than 30 years. The methamphetamine cohort had higher incidences of cardiovascular diseases and stroke events than the comparison cohort (87.5/10,000 vs 55.3/10,000 person-years, P < .001) and was significantly associated with an increased risk of the complications (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.55, P < .001), particularly arrhythmia (HR = 1.92, P = .014) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR = 2.09, P = .001). The risk of cardiovascular sequelae was more significant in younger patients (< 30 y) (HR = 2.22, P = .001), whereas the risk of stroke events was higher among the older patients (≥ 30 y) (HR = 1.86, P = .001). Methamphetamine use is significantly associated with a risk of subsequent cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications. Age appears to be an effect modifier for the risk estimation.

Should urinary iodine concentrations of school-aged children continue to be used as proxy for different populations? Analysis of data from Chinese national surveys

I deficiency is a worldwide public health problem. Median urinary I concentration in school-aged children has been used globally as a proxy for all populations. This study aims to determine whether median urinary I concentration of school-aged children is an appropriate indicator of I nutritional status in different adult populations. This is a secondary data analysis of two national I Deficiency Disorder surveys (2011, 2014) and two regional surveys (in coastal areas, 2009, and in high-risk areas, 2009-2014). Population groups included in these surveys were school-aged children (8-10 years), pregnant women, lactating women, women of childbearing age and adults (men and women, 18-45 years). All participants were self-reported healthy without history of thyroid diseases or were not using thyroid medicines. The median urinary I concentration of school-aged children was matched with that of the other population at the county level. The matched populations had similar iodised salt supply, food and water I, food composition and I content in salt. Weak or moderate correlation of median urinary I concentrations was observed between school-aged children and pregnant women and between children and lactating women. However, the agreement was stronger between children and women of childbearing age and between children and adult men and women. The results could be affected by cut-off values, data aggregation level and sample size. Using median urinary I concentration of school-aged children tends to overestimate that of pregnant women and lactating women. Median urinary I concentration of school-aged children can be used for assessing I nutrition in the adult population.

Population growth as a driver of initial domestication in Eastern North America.

The transition to agriculture is one of the most significant events in human prehistory; yet, explaining why people initially domesticated plants and animals remains a contentious research problem in archaeology. Two competing hypotheses dominate current debates. The first draws on niche construction theory to emphasize how intentional management of wild resources should lead to domestication regardless of Malthusian population–resource imbalances. The second relies on models from behavioural ecology (BE) to highlight how individuals should only exert selective pressure on wild resources during times of population–resource imbalance. We examine these hypotheses to explain the domestication event which occurred in Eastern North America approximately 5000 years ago. Using radiocarbon date density and site counts as proxies for human population, we find that populations increased significantly in the 1000 years prior to initial domestication. We therefore suggest that high populations prior to 5000 cal BP may have experienced competition for and possibly overexploitation of resources, altering the selective pressures on wild plants thereby producing domesticates. These findings support the BE hypothesis of domestication occurring in the context of population–resource imbalances. Such deficits, driven either by increased populations or decreased resource abundance, are predicted to characterize domestication events elsewhere.

A comparison of five high-resolution spatially-explicit, fossil-fuel, carbon dioxide emission inventories for the United States

The quantification of fossil-fuel-related emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is necessary in order to accurately represent carbon cycle fluxes and to understand and project the details of the global carbon cycle. In addition, the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of carbon dioxide emissions is necessary for the success of international agreements to reduce emissions. However, existing fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions inventories vary in terms of the data and methods used to estimate and distribute FFCO2. This paper compares how the approaches used to create spatially explicit FFCO2 emissions inventories affect the spatial distribution of emissions estimates and the magnitude of emissions estimates in specific locales. Five spatially explicit FFCO2 emission inventories were compared: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS), Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC), and Vulcan. The effects of using specific data and approaches in the creation of spatially explicit FFCO2 emissions inventories, and the effect of resolution on data representation are analyzed using graphical, numerical, and cartographic approaches. We examined the effect of using top-down versus bottom-up approaches, nightlights versus population proxies, and the inclusion of large point sources. The results indicate that the approach used to distribute emissions in space creates distinct patterns in the distribution of emissions estimates and hence in the estimates of emissions in specific locations. The different datasets serve different purposes but collectively show the key role of large point sources and urban centers and the strong relationship between scale and uncertainty.

Foreign capital inflows and economic growth in developed and emerging economies: A comparative analysis

This paper attempts to test the impact of foreign capital inflow; foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI)) on economic growth in developed and emerging economies. It also explores whether this inflow generate synergies in boosting economic growth. A cross-sectional time series growth regression was used for 21 developed and 19 emerging economies sample from 1980 to 2012. The Generalized-Method of Moments (GMM) estimators developed for dynamic models of panel data were used to avoid spurious conclusions and to add robustness and inferences correction to our results, and to deal with the econometric problem of heteroskedastic error of unknown functional form. Analysis revealed mixed results for the sample. For the initial FDI and FPI impact on growth, FDI poses a positive and significant influence, while FPI reveals a negative and significant influence in both samples. In addition, the results on the population proxy support the classical model where higher growth rate of population would initiates economic progress, while the results for the saving growth proxy support the saving-led growth phenomenon; where higher saving rate would accelerate economic growth. It was also found that the Market Capitalization (MC) proxy was positively correlated with economic growth in both samples, while the results of the stock trading proxy indicate that private capital inflows had a positive effect on growth only for the developed economies. The FPI results indicated that the presence of FPI inflows may not be a precondition to produce a positive spillover effect in both sample economies. Interestingly, we observed that the interactions between FPI and the Market Capitalization (MC), Stock Trading, and growth have provided evidence that equity markets advancements do have positive contributions toward attracting more capital inwards to the host country. Analysis also showed that FDI inflows augment domestic resources of most economies, and hence boosting economic growth. As policy implication, governments should be aware that market liberalization polices would have a different influence on inward net capital based on the composition of the capital inflows desired and the level of economic development, reflecting the necessity of capturing a targeted financial market threshold in order to stimulate capital control to attract FDI and FPI. In emerging economies, the interaction term (FPI*MC) implies that catching a threshold of equity market development would have a positive impact on higher levels of capital inflows, hence countries with advanced equity markets tend to gain more welfare from FPI capital inflows.