Population Estimates Research Articles

Avifaunal species richness and composition at Masani barrage, district Rewari, Haryana

Masani barrage act as wintering spot for wide range of migratory as well as residential avian species. Their population estimation is to comprehend group dynamics, niche relationships, habitat preferences, and other behavioral features. An ornithological survey was conducted at Masani barrage, district Rewari, Haryana from April 2022 to March 2023 with the help of scan sampling and point count methodology. A total of 150 bird species belonging to 18 orders and 49 families were recorded, among which 94 species were resident; 47 species were winter migrant and 9 species were summer migrant of the observed feeding guilds, Carnivores were the highly dominated followed by Insectivores (41 species), Omnivores (36 species), Herbivores (9 species) and others. Species such as Ferruginous Pochard, Black-tailed Godwit, Eurasian Curlew, Asian woollyneck, Painted stork, Black-necked Stork, Rufous-vented Grass-babbler, Black-headed Ibis, Lesser Flamingo, Oriental Darter and Alexandrine parakeet fall under near-threatened (NT) category of IUCN Conservation status. Data collected from avifaunal species at the barrage can be utilized as a baseline for analyzing future perspectives and developing appropriate management plans for protection and long-term use.

Significantly increasing multiple sclerosis prevalence in Australia from 2010 to 2021

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence is increasing globally. Objectives: To determine whether increased prevalence is continuing within Australia using our validated prescription-based ascertainment method. Methods: We used methods employed in our 2010 and 2017 prevalence estimates. Disease-modifying therapy (DMT) prescriptions were extracted from Australia’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data for January–December 2021. DMT penetrance was calculated using data from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study. We divided the total number of monthly prescriptions by 12 or 2 (except alemtuzumab), adjusted for DMT penetrance and Australian population estimates. Prevalences in Australian states/territories were age-standardised. 2021 prevalence estimates were compared with 2010 and 2017 prevalence estimates using Poisson regression. Results: Number of people with MS in Australia in 2021 was 33,335; an increase of 7728 from 2017 (30.2%) and 12,092 from 2010 (56.6%) and increasing at a faster rate than population change (+10.1%, +14.1%). Age-standardised prevalence was 136.1/100,000 (increased from 103.7/100,000 in 2017). The previously demonstrated positive latitudinal gradient in 2010 and 2017 persisted in 2021, with Tasmania (southernmost state) having the highest prevalence (age-standardised: 203.5/100,000) while northernmost states had the lowest. Conclusions: In line with global trends, MS prevalence is escalating in Australia, particularly in higher-latitude states. MS prevention is crucial to halt this disturbing trend.

Assessing the information-content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate.

Understanding the dynamics of population recovery in threatened species requires robust longitudinal monitoring datasets. However, evidence-based decision-making is often impeded by variable data collection approaches, necessitating critical evaluation of restricted available baselines. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest primate, had possibly declined to only seven or eight individuals in 1978 at Bawangling National Nature Reserve but has experienced subsequent population growth. Past population estimates lack detailed reporting of survey effort, and multiple conflicting estimates are available, hindering assessment of gibbon recovery. We investigated all reported estimates of Bawangling gibbon population size from 1978 to 2022, to evaluate the biological signal of population trends and the extent to which noise associated with varying survey effort, reporting and estimation may mask or misrepresent any underlying signal. This longitudinal dataset demonstrates that the Bawangling population experienced a series of bottlenecks and recoveries, with three successive periods of growth interspersed by population crashes (1978-1989, 1989-2000 and 2000-2022). The rate of gibbon population recovery was progressively slower over time in each successive period of growth, and this potential decline in recovery rate following serial bottlenecks suggests that additional management strategies may be required alongside "nature-based solutions" for this species. However, population viability analysis suggests the 1978 founder population is unlikely to have been as low as seven individuals, raising concerns for interpreting reported historical population counts and understanding the dynamics of the species' recovery. We caution against overinterpreting potential signals within "messy" conservation datasets, and we emphasise the crucial importance of standardised replicable survey methods and transparent reporting of data and effort in all future surveys of Hainan gibbons and other highly threatened species.

Malaria community case management usage and quality of malaria care in a moderate Plasmodium falciparum burden region of Chadiza District, Zambia

BackgroundMalaria community case management (CCM) can improve timely access to healthcare, and CCM programmes in sub-Saharan Africa are expanding from serving children under 5 years (CU5) only to all ages. This report characterizes malaria case management in the setting of an age-expanded CCM programme in Chadiza District, Zambia.MethodsThirty-three households in each of 73 eligible communities were randomly selected to participate in a household survey preceding a trial of proactive CCM (NCT04839900). All household members were asked about fever in the prior two weeks and received a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT); those reporting fever were asked about healthcare received. Weighted population estimates were calculated and mixed effects regression was used to assess factors associated with malaria care seeking.ResultsAmong 11,030 (98.6%) participants with RDT results (2,357 households), parasite prevalence was 19.1% by RDT; school-aged children (SAC, 5–14 years) had the highest prevalence (28.8%). Prior fever was reported by 12.4% of CU5, 7.5% of SAC, and 7.2% of individuals ≥ 15 years. Among those with prior fever, 34.0% of CU5, 56.0% of SAC, and 22.6% of individuals ≥ 15 years had a positive survey RDT and 73.7% of CU5, 66.5% of SAC, and 56.3% of individuals ≥ 15 years reported seeking treatment; 76.7% across all ages visited a CHW as part of care. Nearly 90% (87.8%) of people who visited a CHW reported a blood test compared with 73.5% seen only at a health facility and/or pharmacy (p < 0.001). Reported malaria treatment was similar by provider, and 85.9% of those with a reported positive malaria test reported getting malaria treatment; 66.9% of the subset with prior fever and a positive survey RDT reported malaria treatment. Age under 5 years, monthly or more frequent CHW home visits, and greater wealth were associated with increased odds of receiving healthcare.ConclusionsChadiza District had high CHW coverage among individuals who sought care for fever. Further interventions are needed to increase the proportion of febrile individuals who receive healthcare. Strategies to decrease barriers to healthcare, such as CHW home visits, particularly targeting those of all ages in lower wealth strata, could maximize the benefits of CHW programmes.

Trends and status of harbor seals in Washington State, USA (1977–2023)

AbstractHarbor seal (Phoca vitulina) numbers in the United States rebounded after the implementation of conservation measures associated with the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 (MMPA). Stock estimates are a critical tool for assessing species status and management options under the MMPA and for modeling efforts designed to evaluate the role of pinnipeds in marine ecosystems. We conducted aerial surveys of harbor seal haul‐out sites between 1977 and 2023 to estimate population size and trends in four Washington State, USA, stocks: (1) Hood Canal, (2) Southern Puget Sound, (3) Washington Northern Inland Waters, and (4) the Washington portion of the Oregon‐Washington Coastal Stock. We fit a Bayesian state‐space model to estimate population trends for all stocks, as well as the Washington Coast region, and present carrying capacities and maximum net productivity levels for all stocks. The most recent population estimates for the three inland water stocks are within their optimal sustainable population range, with some evidence that the Southern Puget Sound Stock is continuing to grow.

Heat-related illness among workers in British Columbia, Canada: Extreme hot weather in 2021 compared to 2001-2020.

British Columbia (BC), Canada, experienced an unprecedented summer with record-breaking high temperatures in 2021. Yet the health impact has not been examined in occupational settings. This study aimed to characterize occupational heat-related illness (HRI) among BC workers estimated by incidence rates and associations between heatwaves and HRI, compare risks from 2021 and prior summers of 2001-2020, and assess differential impacts on worker groups by demographics and occupations. We identified HRI from workers' compensation claims that occurred between June and August from 2001-2021 in BC. Incidence rates were calculated using working population estimates from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey. A time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional Poisson regression was used to examine the impact of heatwaves on occupational HRI. All analyses were stratified by year (2021 versus 2001-2020), age, sex, and occupation. Of the 521 claims identified, 107 (21%) occurred in 2021. Incidence rates for 2021 and prior summers were 3.97 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.26-4.80] and 0.93 (95% CI 0.85-1.03) claims per 100 000 workers, respectively. This difference represents a 327% increase. Rates were higher in health occupations in 2021 versus 2001-2020. During 2001-2021, the risk of HRI during heatwave days was 4.33 (95% CI 2.98-6.27) times that during non-heatwave days, and the risk was higher among middle-aged workers and workers in trades, transport, and equipment operations. The 2021 heatwaves had greater impact on younger and female workers than those from prior summers. Heat is a crucial workplace hazard. Prevention strategies should prioritize at-risk workers and not be limited to heatwaves.

Evaluating elements of artificial cover object design for terrestrial salamander monitoring

AbstractDeclines in amphibian populations have led to greater research and monitoring of species of interest, including terrestrial salamanders. Several methods have been used to study salamanders, including artificial cover objects (ACOs). Artificial cover objects are easy to install and use, limit destruction to habitats, are easily reproducible both across and within studies, and can reduce variability between observers and sites by not relying on observer search time or effort, or on natural cover. However, different ACO designs and spacing may yield different capture rates, and thus different estimates of population densities. We examined the influence of ACO wood type, size, shape, and spacing arrays on the number of individually marked red‐backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) captured under ACOs. White pine (Pinus strobus) ACOs yielded the most (average of 14 across 3 replicates) individuals, while white ash (Fraxinus americana) ACOs had the least (average of 7 across 3 replicates). Larger ACOs had similar capture rates compared to equal sampled areas of smaller ACOs, but a single smaller ACO tended to have fewer individual salamander captures than a single large ACO. Our results suggested that high‐density ACO spacing arrays may increase capture probability but reduce the area uniquely sampled by each ACO. In contrast, low‐density ACO arrays may produce population estimates more comparable to other arrays. Future studies should consider monitoring goals and available sampling effort when choosing a spacing array. As ACO study design impacts salamander capture rates, a clear understanding of the effects of each element of ACO design is important when drawing inferences or making comparisons among studies.

Examining the trend of mortality of genitourinary system cancers in Babol, North Iran (2013–2021)

BackgroundCancers of the genitourinary system, particularly prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer, exhibit a high prevalence. Consequently, predicting the morbidity and mortality of genitourinary cancers holds great significance for future planning and implementation. This study aimed to examine the crude and age-standardized rates of mortality and the trend of genitourinary cancers over nine years in northern Iran.MethodsThis cross-sectional study used data on the number of deaths attributed to genitourinary cancers recorded in Babol City between 2013 and 2021 through the cause of death registration and classification system. Population estimates were derived from the latest census reports. Subsequently, crude and age-standardized rates, as well as trends for genitourinary cancers, were calculated.ResultsA total of 307 deaths occurred, with an average age of 75.6 ± 14.3 years due to genitourinary cancers. The crude and age-standardized rates of genitourinary cancers increased from 2.7 and 1.9 per hundred thousand people in 2013 to 7.7 and 5.9 per hundred thousand people in 2021, respectively. Over the study period, death rates significantly rose for men (P < 0.001) and remained constant for women (P = 0.444). Examination of genitourinary cancers revealed an upward trend for bladder (P = 0.012) and prostate (P = 0.012) cancers, while a stable trend was observed for kidney (P = 0.070) and testicular (P = 0.139) cancers.ConclusionsThe age-standardized rate and trend of genitourinary cancers are rising. Consequently, this study emphasizes the importance of prevention through screening programs, raising awareness, and utilizing appropriate diagnostic methods.

A decadal-scale qualitative comparison of lotic Odonata nymph surveys in northwestern Pennsylvania, USA, reveals possible assemblage restructuring

Detecting long-term changes to Odonata assemblages requires repeated sampling at fixed locations over decadal periods. However, few such biomonitoring efforts exist for Odonata, especially at low taxonomic resolution and immature life stages. We repeated a survey of Odonata nymphs conducted nearly thirty years ago in ten streams from a northern Pennsylvania forest reserve to qualitatively explore assemblage-scale changes and identify streams supporting species of conservation concern. Our survey collected five more species among all sites than the original survey, reflecting a 15% increase in richness despite a reduced sampling effort. Rank abundances of many species changed substantially between surveys. Some, such as Calopteryx maculata, fell in rank while other species like Boyeria vinosa and Phanogomphus lividus that were rare in 1994 became the most numerically dominant. We did not detect patterns in species richness or changes in richness between surveys along gradients of unconventional natural gas extraction or timber harvest among streams. The fraction of species deemed vulnerable or imperiled within Pennsylvania grew from 22 to 38% between surveys, highlighting the regional conservation value of protected area we sampled. Our sampling methodology precludes population estimates or quantitative community comparisons due to the sampling design and inconsistencies in the literature used for identification between surveys. However, the substantial differences in rank-abundance among species between surveys suggests potential long-term changes in these lotic Odonata assemblages. The collective findings presented here emphasize the high value of data from repeated surveys with species-level taxonomic resolution.

Using a novel methodology to map Post-COVID services for children and young people in England: a web-based systematic search

BackgroundPost-COVID Condition (PCC), also known as ‘Long COVID,’ refers to persistent symptoms following a coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. The prevalence of PCC in children and adolescents varies, impacting multiple body systems and affecting daily functioning. Specialised paediatric hubs were established in England to address the needs of young individuals with PCC. Additional local services also emerged, yet patients report challenges accessing services. To better understand the landscape of paediatric PCC services, we used a novel methodology using a web-based systematic search.MethodsA web-based search was conducted in July 2023 using DEVONagent Pro. Search terms related to Long COVID and Pediatrics in England. Eligible sources providing information on PCC services for children and young people were included. A supplementary manual search and NHS England Post-COVID Network were also consulted. Data extraction included service location, characteristics, and referral pathways. Population estimates were derived from UK Census data.ResultsAmong 342 identified records, 27 services met eligibility criteria, distributed unevenly across regions. Specialised hubs covered 13 locations, while additional services were concentrated in the South of England and London. Services varied in team composition, age range treated, and support offered. A lack of standardised approaches for paediatric PCC was evident.DiscussionWe used a novel methodology for systematically mapping online resources, providing valuable insights into service accessibility and aiding the identification of potential gaps. We observed geographical disparities in access to paediatric PCC services and the absence of standardised approaches in managing symptoms. Given the challenges faced by young individuals seeking support for their PCC the need for equitable and standardised care became apparent. The study contributes to closing the research-practice gap and calls for further research to identify effective treatments for paediatric PCC, acknowledging the diversity of reported symptoms and the importance of tailored approaches.

Environmental DNA concentrations vary greatly across productive and degradative conditions, with implications for the precision of population estimates

Population size is an important metric to inform the conservation and management of species. For aquatic species, environmental DNA (eDNA) concentration has been suggested for non-invasively estimating population size. However, many biotic and abiotic factors simultaneously influence the production and degradation of eDNA which can alter the relationship between population size and eDNA concentration. We investigated the influence of temperature, salinity, and ranavirus infection on eDNA concentrations using tadpole mesocosms. Using linear regression models, we tested the influence of each experimental treatment on eDNA concentrations at three time points before and during epidemics. Prior to infection, elevated temperatures lowered eDNA concentrations, indicating that degradation was the driving force influencing eDNA concentrations. During early epidemics, no treatments strongly influenced eDNA concentrations and in late epidemics, productive forces dominated as ranavirus intensity and dead organisms increased eDNA concentrations. Finally, population size was only an important predictor of eDNA concentration in late epidemics and we observed high levels of variation between samples of replicate mesocosms. We demonstrate the complexities of several interacting factors influencing productive and degradative forces, variation in influences on eDNA concentration over short time spans, and examine the limitations of estimating population sizes from eDNA with precision in semi-natural conditions.

Estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against infections and severe outcomes using routine surveillance data in Kosovo, July-September 2021.

COVID-19 vaccines have proven effective against severe outcomes in many settings, yet vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates remain lacking for Kosovo. We aimed to estimate VE against COVID-19 infections, hospitalisations, and deaths for one and two vaccine doses during the fourth pandemic wave in July-September 2021, the period when vaccination initially became widely available. We analysed routine surveillance data to define cases and vaccination status as partially (one dose) or completely (two doses) vaccinated. We used the screening method to calculate the proportion of cases with the outcomes vaccinated (PCV). The proportion of the population vaccinated (PPV) was based on numbers vaccinated and the Kosovo population estimate on 30/09/2021. Between July-September 2021, 51,804 COVID-19 cases were reported in Kosovo with 9.3% of cases partially and 3.4% completely vaccinated. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for one dose was 93.1% (95%CI:92.9-93.2%) for infections, 90.3% (95%CI:88.8-91.7%) for hospitalisations, and 90.3% (95%CI:88.4-92.1%) for deaths. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for two doses was 97.8% (95%CI:97.6-97.9%) for infections, 94.5% (95%CI:93.3-95.6%) for hospitalisations, and 94.2% (95%CI: 93.7-96.5%) for deaths. This study provides real-world evidence for COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Kosovo using routine administrative data sources and the screening method. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against infections and severe outcomes in Kosovo was higher with two vaccine doses than one dose, which is in accordance with findings from other study designs and settings. Using the screening method in our study reflects an important initial methodology for estimating vaccine effectiveness with routine surveillance that may be particularly important for low- and middle-income settings with less robust surveillance systems or fewer opportunities to conduct more robust vaccine effectiveness study designs.

Population Estimates of the White mango scale insect Aulacaspis tubercularis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) in Relation to Biotic and Abiotic Factors in Damietta Governorate,.

Population Estimates of the White mango scale insect Aulacaspis tubercularis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) in Relation to Biotic and Abiotic Factors in Damietta Governorate,.

Linked Data for modelling and replicating the knowledge production process in data-driven humanities research

Abstract The steps from primary source to scholarly claim typically follow a ‘breadcrumb trail’ of wide-ranging decisions by one or more scholars. For replication studies, these decisions must be identified and made as explicit as possible so that the results can be faithfully reproduced. We use a replication study of premodern population estimates as a use case to gain more insight into the kinds of scholarly practices that need to be made explicit, and to think about possible solutions for modelling this process with future replicability in mind. We argue that Linked Data is the logical and flexible technique for modelling such a replication study. For our use case, it allows us to capture both the data itself and the individual decisions made to arrive at a scientifically derived population estimate based on, for example, geographical phenomena or source criticism. In this article, we set an agenda for the use of Linked Data in data-driven humanities research by exploring the benefits, opportunities, and challenges associated with using Linked Data to conduct a replication study in the humanities (and to promote the reproducibility of humanities research more generally). We identify three key aspects that can benefit from the flexibility offered by Linked Data: increasing the trustworthiness of quantitative studies; facilitating the reproducibility of future studies; and facilitating the interpretation of replication results.

Disparity in Risk of Readmission in Adult Burn Patients: Analysis of a Nationwide Readmission Database

IntroductionBurn injuries remain a significant cause of disability, impacting long term quality-of-life and imposing large costs on our health systems. Readmission is a metric of quality and an important contributor to this economic burden. The association of socioeconomic and insurance status with burn readmission is not well established. The aim of our study is to develop a predictive risk model of factors associated with readmission after burns. MethodsUsing the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's 2018 Nationwide Readmission Database, we identified patients ≥18 y of age with burns admitted between January and October 2018. We excluded patients who died during index admission. Our primary outcome was readmission within 60 d postdischarge. We performed a Lasso regression analysis with adaptive selection to generate a predictive model with least deviance using patients' demographics and socioeconomic status, burn location and severity, past medical history, and hospital characteristics. Weighted multiple logistic regression was performed to obtain population estimates of adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of each element in the model. ResultsOur cohort included 11,380 burn patients. Of those, 1625 (14.3%) were readmitted and 67% were males. Readmitted patients were older (55 ± 17 versus 49 ± 18, P = 0.0001). Weighted logistic regression for the selected model showed higher odds of readmission for patients with lowest income quartile (OR: 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.36), Medicare or Medicaid insurance (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.17-1.55), history of psychiatric illness (OR:1.19, 95% CI: 1.02-1.39), diabetes (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.25-1.69), chronic kidney disease (OR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.30-2.11), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR: 1.55, 95% CI:1.26-1.89), and alcohol use disorder (OR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.13-1.58). Third degree burns and foot burns had higher OR of readmission (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.38-1.98 and 1.66, 95% CI: 1.02-1.45, respectively), while face and hand burns had lower OR of readmission (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.90 and 0.84, 95% CI: 0.72-0.98, respectively). ConclusionsBurn readmissions are multifactorial and directly related to the patient's comorbidities, including markers that reflect barriers to care such as socioeconomic characteristics, as well as the anatomical location of burn injuries. Early identification of these high-risk patients may aid in early intervention, resource allocation, and outreach program development in an attempt to reduce readmission rates and improve outcomes. Future prospective validation of these risk factors is warranted.

Outcome measures for Māori with non-traumatic dental presentations: a retrospective observational study and Kaupapa Māori approach examining emergency department inequities.

To assess the equity of care of patients with non-traumatic dental presentations (NTDP) to Christchurch Emergency Department (ED) in Aotearoa New Zealand. This retrospective observational study reviews NTDP to Christchurch ED over a 2-year period (2018-2020). ED and hospital outcomes were compared for Māori, Pacific peoples and NZ Europeans. Results are interpreted utilising Te Ao Māori principles and discussed referencing a Kaupapa Māori framework. There were a total of 2,034 NTDPs, with Māori (27.0%) and Pacific peoples (6.9%) being over-represented compared to local population estimates (9.4% and 3.2% respectively). Māori experienced shorter wait times (45 minutes, 95% CI 22-86) compared to NZ Europeans (56 minutes, 95% CI 24-97) and Pacific peoples (54 minutes, 95% CI 23-97). Māori had the highest age-standardised incidence of admission, but shorter hospital length of stay (0.9 days, IQR 0.4-2.3) compared to Pacific peoples (3.8 days, IQR 1.8-3.9) and NZ Europeans (2.0 days, IQR 1.0-3.7). This is the first paper to employ a Kaupapa Māori approach examining NTDP patients presenting to the ED. While outcome measures were largely positive, differences in demographic variables indicate upstream failures, specifically barriers to accessing primary oral healthcare and a paucity of Kaupapa Māori initiatives. Further action and accountability are required to provide high-quality, equitable care for Māori.

Factors influencing haulout behaviour of non-breeding weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) at Cape Royds, Antarctica

The Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) is a fast-ice obligate species that plays an important role as both predator and prey within the high-latitude, coastal Southern Ocean. Weddell seals are affected by pressures of marine resource extraction and variation in sea-ice extent and characteristics that are affected by climate. Thus, monitoring their population dynamics provides an indicator of the effectiveness of fisheries management, and impacts of changing climate in the high latitude Southern Ocean ecosystem. Satellite imagery is increasingly being used to monitor the populations of this species, but assessment techniques require a better understanding of the environmental factors influencing the likelihood that individuals will be on the sea-ice and therefore visible in a satellite image. Addressing that goal, we captured 5054 trail camera photos during spring 2017 in the 24-h light at Cape Royds, Antarctica, and then counted seals on the fast ice every 30 min over 59 days. Using a generalised additive model (63% deviance explained) we described the haulout behaviour of non-breeding Weddell seals according to time of day, date, air temperature, pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed. We found that the seals’ haulout cycle is driven to a significant degree by weather variables, primarily temperature and wind speed. Quantifying these haulout patterns can be used to determine the time of day, and under what conditions, that most seals are hauled out. Integrating environmental parameters to correct time-of-day patterns would allow better cross-site abundance comparisons, leading to better Weddell seal population estimates for the Ross Sea region and the wider coastal Antarctica.

Breast cancer incidence and stage at diagnosis in the six US-Affiliated Pacific Islands

BackgroundBreast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed among women globally and in the United States (US); however, its incidence in the six US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) remains less characterized. MethodsWe analyzed data from a population-based cancer registry using different population estimates to calculate incidence rates for breast cancer among women aged >20 years in the USAPI. Rate ratios and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to compare incidence rates between the USAPI and the US (50 states and the District of Columbia). ResultsFrom 2007–2020, 1118 new cases of breast cancer were diagnosed in the USAPI, with 66.3 % (n = 741) of cases reported in Guam. Age-standardized incidence rates ranged from 66.4 to 68.7 per 100,000 women in USAPI and 101.1–110.5 per 100,000 women in Guam. Compared to the US, incidence rates were lower in USAPI, with rate ratios ranging from 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.36, 0.40) to 0.39 (95 % CI: 0.37, 0.42). The proportion of late-stage cancer was significantly higher in the USAPI (48.7 %) than in the US (34.0 %), particularly in the Federated States of Micronesia (78.7 %) and Palau (73.1 %). ConclusionsBreast cancer incidence rates were lower in the USAPI than in the US; however, late-stage diagnoses were disproportionately higher. Low incidence and late-stage cancers may signal challenges in screening, cancer surveillance, and health care access and resources. Expanding access to timely breast cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment could reduce the proportion of late-stage cancers and improve survival in the USAPI.

The use of image classification to estimate flamingo abundance from aerial, drone and satellite imagery

The Lesser Flamingo Phoeniconaias minor is a Near Threatened species known to be highly gregarious and that can concentrate in large numbers at core foraging and breeding sites, yet is also known to disperse widely in search of suitable foraging habitat. The density of flamingos at occupied sites, together with frequent dispersal between foraging sites, poses significant challenges to obtaining reliable counts and associated population estimates. Our study tested the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) imagery and high-resolution satellite imagery for producing density estimates of Lesser Flamingos at the only known breeding site in South Africa (Kamfers Dam, Northern Cape Province). We implemented a supervised classification approach using multiple supervised classification algorithms, including xgbTree, randomForest, nnet and GBM. The four supervised classification models performed very well at classifying flamingos from both drone and satellite imagery, with classification accuracies ranging between 0.98 and 0.99. The inclusion of an additional predictor (other than RGB bands) yielded the highest variable importance score and greatly increased model accuracy and predictive performance. Estimates of adult flamingos from drone imagery acquired across nesting mudflats on 5 February (n = 1 320) and 14 February (n = 330) 2019 suggested a 75% decline in incubating adults. Furthermore, a total of 16 134 (15 973–16 295) flamingos were estimated from drone imagery on 1 March 2019, and 17 291 (17 118–17 290) flamingos from satellite imagery on 19 March 2019. The modelled size of the creche across dates suggested a loss of 234 birds (4.5%) during the period of assessment, with the highest count estimating 5 218 juveniles. Our study successfully implemented machine learning classifiers that were able to detect and derive highly accurate counts of Lesser Flamingos from both drone and satellite imagery. This use of machine learning could greatly improve the efficiency of monitoring and associated conservation efforts underway for the Lesser Flamingo.

Time Trends and Geographic Patterns of Mortality Due to Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung Cancer in Portugal

Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBLC) remains a major public health concern. Knowledge about geographic patterns and time trends in TBLC could give insights to better address this problem. This study aimed to evaluate the geographic patterns and time trends in mortality due to TBLC observed in Portugal. TBLC-related deaths and population estimates (2011–2021) were derived from the Instituto Nacional de Estatística. Age-standardized mortality rates for people aged 50 or more (ASMR_50+) per 100,000 were obtained. Analyses were stratified by gender, geographic region, and level of urbanization. The time trends in ASMR_50+ were evaluated using joinpoint regression models, and the values for the annual percentage change (APC) and the respective 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were obtained. Differences in mortality due to TBLC between regions and levels of urbanization (2017–2021) were assessed through a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and the respective 95% CI. In 2021, the ASMR_50+ per 100,000 inhabitants observed in mainland Portugal was 158.0 and 40.4 among men and women, respectively. According to the time-trend analysis, ASMR_50+ due to TBLC remained stable or described a downward trend among men, but there was an upward trend among women in suburban and urban regions. Observed deaths were significantly higher than the expected for men in urban areas (SMR = 125%; 95% CI: 121–128 and SMR = 118%; 95% CI: 115–122 in Norte and Lisboa, respectively), and women in Urban Norte (SMR = 125%; 95%CI: 119–131). Lower mortality than expected was observed among men living in Rural Norte and Rural Centro, as well as, among women living in all the rural areas. In suburban areas, the observed deaths were lower, higher, or as expected depending on the geographic region and gender. A notable upward trend in mortality due to TBLC among women was observed. The geographic patterns observed suggest the effects of deleterious environmental factors and smoking habits, deserving attention from policymakers.