Population Dependency Ratio Research Articles

Epidemiological insights and geographic clusters for COVID-19 in Taiwan using a mixture scan statistic

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented public health challenges worldwide, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of its transmission dynamics. This study examines the correlation between COVID-19 transmission and various risk factors, focusing on the impact of population structure and socio-economic conditions in Taiwan. By analyzing official government databases, we explore how factors such as population density, dependency ratios, and socio-economic environment influence the spread of COVID-19. Our findings highlight that densely populated areas, along with regions characterized by higher child dependency ratios and a significant number of low- and middle-income households, exhibit higher transmission rates. This research underscores the importance of considering socio-economic disparities and healthcare access in developing effective public health strategies. Furthermore, we utilize a mixture scan statistic to identify disease hotspots, taking into account spatial correlation and covariate effects. This approach can detect clusters based on known risk factors and help to assess possible unknown geographic risks, facilitating targeted interventions and resource allocation. Our study contributes to the broader understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, offering insights into the importance of integrating socio-economic factors and spatial analysis in pandemic response efforts.

Assessing Social Vulnerability to Coastal Hazards: A Case Study of Bandar Lampung City Coastal Area

Bandar Lampung City’s coastal area is highly susceptible to coastal hazards due to its location within the subduction zone of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian tectonic plates. Additionally, the presence of the Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait further increases the vulnerability of the city’s coast to natural disasters. This study analyses the current social vulnerability in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City. The aim is to provide a starting point for disaster management and policy planning in the city. To determine the level of social vulnerability in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City, social vulnerability mapping is conducted by overlaying four indices: population, population density, sex ratio, and dependency ratio. The data indicates that there is significant variation in the level of social vulnerability among the coastal areas of Bandar Lampung City. Specifically, 8 out of 25 villages in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City exhibit high levels of social vulnerability. The villages of Bumi Waras, Pesawahan, and Keteguhan have the highest levels of social vulnerability in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City. As revealed by this study, the indicators of population size and dependency ratio have the most significant impact on the level of social vulnerability. These findings are expected to provide valuable input to stakeholders in their efforts to reduce social vulnerability in coastal areas.

Demographic burden and average insurance retirement benefit: Scenario approach

This research examines the main types of retirement systems for citizens of the Russian Federation. The forecasting of population size and dependency ratio was carried out using the Verhulst equation as a tool for demographic projection. A comparative analysis of the obtained forecasts with the official data of the United Nations (UN) was carried out. It is assessed that the demographic forecast based on the Verhulst equation is accompanied by a more moderate decrease in the dependency ratio compared to the UN forecasts. Therefore, a scenario analysis of the impact of a negative demographic forecast based on UN data and a positive one according to the results obtained by the Verhulst equation on the size of the average insurance retirement is proposed. It is concluded that under the negative scenario of the demographic situation the size of the insurance retirement benefit increases by 11 .69%, while under a positive scenario it increases by 58.54%, which exceeds the growth rate of retirement provision for citizens of the Russian Federation by more than 5 times compared to the negative scenario of the demographic situation in the country.

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Level of Basic Pension Insurance in China based on Factor Analysis

With the normalization of China's ageing population, the balanced regional development of pension insurance levels is a key concern for the Chinese government. The development process and level of each region is influenced by many factors, and there are serious differ-ences in the level of basic pension insurance. This paper selects relevant livelihood indica-tors and data from provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and au-tonomous regions from 2014 to 2020, and uses factor analysis method to study and analyze the indicators that have a greater impact on the level of pension insurance, classifying all in-dicators into two categories: economic factors and demographic factors. The results of the study found that the economic factors accounted for a greater weight, with the coefficients in the economic factors (consumption level of residents, GDP per capita, the amount of pen-sion insurance fund coverage, and the share of pension insurance fund) basically close to 20%, while the coefficients in the demographic factors (elderly population dependency ra-tio, participation rate) were closer to 10%. The weighting of the indicators affecting the im-portance of pension insurance are, in order of importance, the level of consumption of the population, GDP per capita, the amount of pension fund coverage, the share of pension fund, the dependency ratio of the elderly population, and the participation rate. The paper concludes that the overall level of basic pension insurance in China is low and disparate, and that disparities can be improved from both economic and demographic perspectives to pro-mote balanced development.

Population dependency and inflation: a study of high- and upper-middle-income countries

In recent years, whether demographic change creates an inflationary trend is examined frequently. Debates on whether the decrease in the population at active working age and the dependency ratio because of the increasing old age cause an inflationary trend points to an area where no consensus can be reached. In this context, the tendency of the total population dependency ratio, young population dependency ratio and elderly population dependency ratio to affect inflation, which represents population aging and demographic change, was examined in this study. Panel cointegration, panel ARDL and panel causality analysis methods were used in the study conducted on 29 Upper Middle and High Income country economies in the period covering 1980-2020. The main findings got from the study reveal that the elderly population dependency ratio, which is defined as the elderly population dependency in the short term, has a deflationary effect, while the young population dependence has an inflationary effect in the long term. Key words: population dependency, inflation, cointgration, panel data analysis, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality

Analyzing the efficiency of Chinese primary healthcare institutions using the Malmquist-DEA approach: Evidence from urban and rural areas.

China has been increasing the investment in Primary Health Care Institutions (PHCIs) since the launch of the New Health Care System Reform in 2009. It is a crucial concern whether the PHCIs can meet residents' need both in urban and rural with the limited government finance, especially encountering the challenge of the COVID-19. This study aimed to reveal the trend of the primary health service efficiency in the past decade, compare the urban-rural differences, and explore relevant factors. DEA and Malmquist models were applied to calculate the health service efficiency of PHCIs among 28 provinces in China, with the input variables including the number of institutions, number of beds, number of health technicians, and the outputs variables including the number of outpatients and emergency visits, number of discharged patients. And the Tobit model was used to analyze the factors on the efficiency in urban and rural. A sensitivity analysis for model validations was also carried out. The average technical efficiency (TE) of urban PHCIs fluctuated from 63.3% to 67.1%, which was lower than that in rural (75.8-82.2%) from 2009 to 2019. In terms of dynamic efficiency, the urban PHCIs performed better than the rural, and the trends in the total factor productivity change were associated with favorable technology advancement. The population density and dependency ratio were the key factors on TE in both of the urban and rural PHCIs, and these two factors were positively correlated to TE. In terms of TE, it was negatively correlated with the proportion of total health expenditure as a percentage of GDP in urban PHCIs, while in rural it was positively correlated with the urbanization rate and negatively correlated with GDP per capita. Besides, the tests of Mann-Whitney U, and Kruskal-Wallis H indicated the internal validity and robustness of the chosen DEA and Malmquist models. It needs to reduce the health resource wastes and increase service provision in urban PHCIs. Meanwhile, it is necessary to strengthen medical technology and gaining greater efficiency in rural PHCIs by technology renovation.

Pengaruh Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk, Dependency Ratio Dan Tingkat Pendidikan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kota Langsa

This study aims to determine the effect of population growth rate, dependency ratio and education level on economic growth in Langsa City in 2006-2021. The method of data collection in this research is done through a literature study, the data analysis method used is quantitative analysis using multiple linear regression analysis using the E-Views version 10. The results obtained by the equation Y = – 11.85942 – 0.322561 X1 + 0.284660 X2 + 0.195014 X3, based on the t-test the population growth rate has a negative and insignificant effect, the dependency ratio has a positive and significant effect and the level of education has a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth in Langsa City. Simultaneously the rate of population growth, dependency ratio and level of education have no significant effect on economic growth in Langsa City.

Design of Intelligent Nursing System Based on Artificial Intelligence

As the number of the elderly population and the population dependency ratio increase year by year, the issue of old-age care has become the focus. However, due to the shortage of carers and the large-scale and expensive auxiliary equipment for the elderly, it is difficult to give thoughtful care to all the elderly. In view of the above background, this paper designs a set of intelligent nursing system for the elderly based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, which mainly includes sensor terminals and AI processing algorithms. Among them, the sensor terminal mainly includes two parts: video monitoring and human biological signal monitoring. For video surveillance signals, this paper uses scene event detection algorithm to detect abnormal events, so as to automatically perceive possible unexpected situations. For human biological signals, such as heart rate, blood pressure, and pulse, the abnormal detection is carried out through data analysis and comparison with the normal index range. So, the possible problems in the physical state of the elderly can be judged in time. Through more comprehensive state monitoring and reliable algorithm processing, the system can effectively solve many hidden dangers in the current elderly care and provide a feasible solution for smart nursing.

INFLUENCING FACTORS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF THE CHANGE OF POPULATION DEPENDENCY RATIO IN YUNNAN PROVINCE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF EMOTIONAL REGULATION OF POSITIVE PSYCHOLOGY

INFLUENCING FACTORS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF THE CHANGE OF POPULATION DEPENDENCY RATIO IN YUNNAN PROVINCE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF EMOTIONAL REGULATION OF POSITIVE PSYCHOLOGY

Pengaruh Beberapa Faktor Strategis terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Propinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat Periode 2015-2021

The human development index as an indicator in measuring of the development of a country or a region reflects the improvement in the quality of human resources that must be achieved as a goal of sustainable development proclaimed by the United Nations Development Program. West Nusa Tenggara Province as one of the provinces in Indonesia with a human development index which is in the medium level category in 2021 (68,65), is still below the average national human development index (71,94, 2020 ). This is a research with documentation data collection method, aims to determine the effect of strategic variables that are components in measuring the human development index, namely poverty level, dependency ratio, average length of schooling and life expectancy of the population, during the period 2015 – 2021. The result show that the poverty rate and population dependency ratio have a negative effect on the human development index while the average length of schooling and life expectancy show a positive effect. The provincial government of West Nusa Tenggara, is expected to accelerate development programs, especially those strategic variables used to increase the achievement of the human development index.

Exploring the efficiency of primary health care provision in rural and sparsely populated areas: a case study from Mongolia.

Mongolia is facing serious challenges in the health sector and the macro-economic sphere that have important implications for health financing and the completion of universal health coverage. In this context, improving the efficiency of primary health care facilities is a critical issue. We study the efficiency of Soum Health Centres (SHCs) that provide primary care in rural Mongolia. Based on activity and resources data collected for all SHCs of Mongolia in 2017 and 2018 we estimate bias-adjusted efficiency scores. A double bootstrap truncated regression procedure is then used to study the factors associated with SHCs' efficiency. On average, SHCs could potentially engage in the same activity while reducing overall resource use by ∼23%. A comparatively higher population density and dependency ratio in the districts where they are located tend to favour SHCs' efficiency. Conversely, the higher the poverty rate in the soum, the lower the efficiency. We find a positive association between SHCs' efficiency and the proportion of doctors in the health workforce. The human resources allocation process and the capitation formula currently used to pay SHCs should be adjusted based on the size and socioeconomic/demographic characteristics of the population living in the catchment area of SHCs.

Sustainable Livelihood Security in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone: Ecologically Secure, Economically Efficient or Socially Equitable?

Sustainable Livelihood Security (SLS) remains a rarely considered yet important issue for rural sustainability and natural resource management. Particularly in China, rural SLS research in a typical area is urgently needed, but insufficient under the background of National Rural Revitalization and Ten-year Fishing Ban of Yangtze River. Focusing on the policy-targeted inland lake area, we proposed a Livelihood Security Analysis (LSA) framework by establishing an adaptive indicator system and integrating multiple econometrical and geographical methods. This study aims to evaluate the SLS in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone comprehensively from the three aspects of ecology, economy and society, analyze their spatial patterns, identify the main constraints, and finally give specific suggestions for improving rural sustainability management. The results showed that rural SLS in the inland great lake area tended to be vulnerable mainly due to the lagging economic efficiency and unbalanced social equality, and mediated by regional ecological characteristics. The overall SLS and Ecological Security Index (ESI) were higher in the north and lower in the south, while Economic Efficiency Index (EEI) and Social Equality Index (SEI) were at the middle level and circularly distributed around Nanchang City. The dominating factors which have greatly shaped the spatial pattern of SLS include rural per capita electricity consumption, fishery breeding area, population dependency ratio, urbanization rate, and fishery population. The obstacle degree is ranked as economic system > social system > ecological system. An outdated economy and incomplete social services are the main constraints, characterized by weak electricity consumption, limited beds in hospitals, low urbanization rate, deficient agricultural machinery power, and a small agricultural output value. Therefore, one urgent need is to activate the rural economy by reinforcing rural electric power facilities and promoting agricultural mechanization. In addition, transforming the peasants/fishermen to the non-agricultural sector should be accelerated, which will help to reduce ecological pressure, boost urban-rural integration and narrow the income gap.

Realizing the Prospects of the Demographic Dividend in Selected Arab Countries


 Background: For most Arab countries, the coming ten years will reveal a real challenge with their changing age structure. Currently, a demographic window of opportunity is unlocked in many of those countries with the increase in the fraction of population in the working-age. Hence, the study investigates the relation between population growth and dependency ratio as demographic indicators and the per capita growth domestic product (GDP).
 Methods: A time-series analysis model was developed for Egypt and Morocco versus the Republic of Korea as an economically empowered country that had the same initial conditions in the early sixties. Data exploited are drawn from the World Bank and OECD databases. We adopt an income per capita growth model to analyze the role of demographic factors, mainly working-age share.
 Results There is a significant relationship between GDP per capita and the proportion of working age population. A significant long-run association between dependency ratio and per capita GDP is confirmed. The reduction of dependency load contributes to GDP per capita growth throughout the study duration by an annual rate of about 9 and 2 percent in Egypt and Morocco, respectively.
 Conclusion: The decline in the dependency ratio, or alternatively, the raise in the working age population has a favorable impact on economic growth. The paper presents supporting evidence to scale up the effect of age structure alteration and to realize the demographic dividend in the studied countries.

Forecasting Mortality Rates for India Using Lee-Carter Model with Applications to Projecting Population Pyramid, Gender Imbalance and Dependency Ratio

Forecasting Mortality Rates for India Using Lee-Carter Model with Applications to Projecting Population Pyramid, Gender Imbalance and Dependency Ratio

Globalization and income inequality: A panel data analysis of 37 developing countries in Africa

The lack of economic facts on the effects of globalization and income inequality in Africa has made it difficult for an effective economic policy response to the problem of inequalities in the continent. Against this backdrop, this paper examined the nexus between globalization and income inequality by estimating Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and the Random model for Panel data of 37 developing countries in Africa over the period of 1970 to 2014. The relationship between income level and income inequality justifies the validity of Kuznets’ U hypothesis. The results showed a negative relationship between the total globalization index and income inequality after taxes and transfer for the (OLS). Results for the globalization sub-indicators such as economic globalization showed a robust positive significant relationship for both measures of income inequality measures (Gini net and Gini market), while political globalization showed a negative relationship with both income inequality measures. It is recommended that government in African countries should strengthen their institutions to promote policy frameworks that will increase income levels and the human capital capacity, while steps should be taken to control the ever-increasing population and age dependency ratio.

Population Aging and the Demand for Private Health Insurance in China

Abstract This study examines the potential impact of aging on the demand for private health insurance (PHI) in China. Using the provincial data for 2000–2018, we find that a 1-percent increase in each proportion of the elderly population and old-age dependency ratio increases the PHI demand by 4.8 and 5.2%, respectively. A one-percent increase in the child dependency ratio decreases the PHI demand by 1.5%. We employ an instrumental variable approach; the findings support that the proportion of the elderly individuals in the total population, old-age dependency ratio, child dependency ratio, and urban green area significantly affect the PHI demand. The rolling estimate indicates that aging has a significant positive effect on the PHI demand over a rolling window of a fixed sample size. Additionally, by controlling for province and year fixed effects, we find that aging is positively associated with the PHI demand in China.

Predicting the Population Growth and Structure of China Based on Grey Fractional-Order Models

Scientific prediction and accurate grasp of the future trend of population change are conducive to the formulation of different population policies at different stages, so as to alleviate the adverse effects of the aging population on society and provide scientific theoretical reference for controlling the population size and making policy. Considering that the population system is affected by many complex factors and the structural relationship among these factors is complex, it can be regarded as a typical dynamic grey system. In this paper, the fractional-order GM (1, 1) model and the fractional-order Verhulst model are established, respectively, based on the statistical data of China's population indices from 2015 to 2019 to forecast the population size and the change trend of population structure of China from 2015 to 2050 in the short-term and medium- to long-term. The forecast results show that China’s population will grow in an inverse S shape from 2015 to 2050, when the total population will reach 1.43 billion. Moreover, during this period, the birth rate and natural growth rate of population will decrease year by year, and the proportion of aging population and the dependency ratio of population will increase year by year. Besides, the problem of aging population is going to become increasingly serious. The application of grey system method to population prediction can mine the complex information contained in the population number series. Meanwhile, the fractional-order accumulation can weaken the randomness of the original data series and reduce the influence of external disturbance factors, so it is a simple and effective population prediction method.

Population Dynamics in Nepal Over 100 Years

Population dynamics is the branch of life sciences that studies short-term and long-term changes in the size and age composition of populations, and the biological and environmental processes influencing those changes. The main aim of this article is to analyze the size, distribution, change, growth, trend, pattern and other over all status of population of Nepal of last hundred years (1911 – 2011).Secondary information obtained by author from authentic and reliable different sources and rearranged- calculated, re-tabulated and analyzed and make meaningful and sensible of them. Number of populations are almost 5 fold increased during the (1930 – 2011) 80 years period of time. The population growth rate and doubling times are fluctuation. CDR, CBR, IMR, CMR, MMR are decreasing as increasing of the socio economic development in Nepal. Life expectancy, literacy rate, active age population rate are increasing. The identification of the caste/ethnic groups are rapidly increased, only 60 caste/ethnic groups were identified in 1991, it has increased and reached 100caste/ethnic groups in 2001 and 125 caste/ethnic groups in 2011 census. Population dependency ratio of child is decreasing and increasing of the old age dependency ratio. If old age population growth rate will remaining the same the old age dependency ratio will be increased by 3 fold till 2050. Almost60 percent populations are living in urban duelers. The CBS of Nepal is going to conduct the census in beginning of 2078 BS and expected total population to be more than 31.5 millions.

“Bonus of Demography” as an Opportunity to Build Indonesian’s Welfare (Through the Role of Doctors in Primary Care in the STBM Program for Decreasing the Prevalence of Stunting)

Demographic bonus is a condition where the composition of the population of productive age (age range 15-65 years old) is greater than the number of non-productive age population. According to BPS predictions, in 2020-2045 Indonesia has the opportunity to experience a demographic bonus, in which the country will have around 180 million productive-aged people, while those who are not productive are 60 million. Currently, 3 to 4 unproductive people will be rewarded by 10 productive people. In 2018 the total population of Indonesia is 265 million with a composition of 133.17 million women and 131.88 million men, where the population dependency ratio of Indonesia is 47.9%, which means there are 47 to 48 unproductive residents (aged under 15 years old and over 65 years old) who will be borne by 100 productive age population (15-65 years old). The problem is not the quantity of productive population but more towards its quality, so large a number will really make a bonus for the development of the Indonesian nation or on the contrary the explosion of population in this productive age will be a disaster for this beloved nation.

Health in rural Sri Lanka: A cross-sectional survey of three rural districts

Sri Lanka has a predominantly rural population. However, there is a dearth of research on health and socioeconomic issues in this group. To describe basic socioeconomic characteristics and health profile in a rural population. A descriptive cross-sectional household survey was conducted in 1950 households in three rural districts, selected by a three-stage stratified cluster sampling method. The population pyramid showed an ageing population (dependency ratio of 50%). Only 39% had completed GCE (ordinary level). Unemployment rates were high (25% males, 76% females). Agriculture and related work were main occupations. Most lacked amenities (e.g. 61% households lacked a refrigerator) and practiced inappropriate methods of waste disposal (e.g. open burning by 72%). Household illnesses were frequent: episodes of acute illness within two weeks, injuries within past year and chronic illness were reported from 35.9%, 14.9% and 48.3% households. The prevalence of chronic diseases in adults >20 years were high: diabetes 13.5%, hypertension 16.7% and overweight/obesity 28.2%. Of the males, 22.1% smoked and 12.3% took alcohol. Almost 25% adults chewed betel. Reports of snake bite, dog bites and suicide/attempted suicide were seen in 15.5%, 9.7% and 3.0% households respectively. This study shows a unique clustering of health-related problems in rural Sri Lanka. This was characterized by demographic transition, burden from snake bites, chronic diseases and acute illnesses. There were resource limitations and low levels of education. Cohort studies and comparisons with urban areas will enable further elucidation of determinants of health and other issues in rural Sri Lanka.