Population Demographic Changes Research Articles

Mapping fertility rates at national, sub-national, and local levels in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019.

Fertility rates are key indicators of population health and demographic change, influencing economic development, healthcare planning, and social policies. Understanding subnational variation in fertility rate is important for effective geographical targeting and policy prioritization. This study aimed to identify geographic variation, trends, and determinants of fertility rates in Ethiopia over the past two decades. We estimated total fertility rates (TFRs) and age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) using five nationally representative cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys collected in Ethiopia between 2000 and 2019. ASFRs represent the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 49 during the 3 years before each survey, while TFRs indicate the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her reproductive years, calculated as the sum of ASFRs over five-year intervals. We developed model-based geostatistics by incorporating demographic and healthcare access data with spatial random fields to produce high-resolution fertility rate maps. These results were then aggregated to produce fertility rate estimates at local, sub-national, and national levels in Ethiopia. The national TFR gradually declined from 4.8 live births in 2000 to 4.2 live births in 2019, but it is still above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. There were sub-national and local variations in TFR, ranging from 5.7 live births in Somalia and 5.3 Oromia regions to 2.7 live births in Addis Ababa and 3.6 live births Dire Dawa cities. Geographical areas with high TFR were mostly associated with a high proportion of Muslim women and low access to health facilities. Despite a decline in fertility rates among women of reproductive age over the past two decades, marked spatial variation persists at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia, with demographic factors determining the spatial distribution and rate of decline, highlighting the need for tailored programs and strategies in high-fertility areas to increase access to family planning.

The Role of Assistive Technology in Enabling Older Adults to Achieve Independent Living: Past and Future.

In this viewpoint, we present evidence of a marked increase in the use of assistive technology (AT) by older adults over the last 25 years. We also explain the way in which this use has expanded not only as an increase in terms of the total number of users but also by going beyond the typical scopes of use from its inception in 1999 to reach new categories of users. We outline our opinions on some of the key driving forces behind this expansion, such as population demographic changes, technological advances, and the promotion of AT as a means to enable older adults to achieve independent living. As well as our review of the evolution of AT over the past 25 years, we also discuss the future of AT research as a field and the need for harmonization of terminology in AT research. Finally, we outline how our experience in North Norfolk (notably the United Kingdom's most old age-dependent district) suggests that cocreation may be the key to not only successful research trials in the field of AT but also to the successful sustained adoption of AT beyond its original scope of use.

Younger Older Americans and Sarcopenic Obesity: The Moderating Role of Living Alone.

Previous studies have indicated that compared to older adults, younger older adults (e.g., baby boomers) are more susceptible to obesity, but their risk decreases as they age. However, there is a lack of research on how individuals experience sarcopenic obesity, which increases in later life and is a mortality risk factor. This study examined how younger cohorts of older Americans and their demographic traits are related to sarcopenic obesity. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze participants aged 65 years and older, stratified by sex using data from the 2006-2016 Health and Retirement Study, with survey weights (n = 2,896 men and n = 4,268 women). The findings indicate that the youngest cohort (born between 1948 and 1953) had greater odds of sarcopenic obesity than older cohorts (born before 1931). However, the youngest cohort did not have significantly different risks from those born between 1931 and 1947. Unexpectedly, the youngest cohort of older women living alone tended not to have sarcopenic obesity compared to the older cohorts living alone. These results remained significant even after adjusting for various covariates, including marital status, race, education level, wealth, and other factors. This paper contributes to the existing literature on population health and demographic change in 2 ways. First, the risk of sarcopenic obesity is higher among younger cohorts of older Americans relative to older cohorts (born before 1931). Second, living alone may not necessarily be considered a worse health condition, particularly for younger female cohorts.

Genomic insights into hybrid zone formation: The role of climate, landscape, and demography in the emergence of a novel hybrid lineage.

Population demographic changes, alongside landscape, geographic and climate heterogeneity, can influence the timing, stability and extent of introgression where species hybridise. Thus, quantifying interactions across diverged lineages, and the relative contributions of interspecific genetic exchange and selection to divergence at the genome-wide level is needed to better understand the drivers of hybrid zone formation and maintenance. We used seven latitudinally arrayed transects to quantify the contributions of climate, geography and landscape features to broad patterns of genetic structure across the hybrid zone of Populus trichocarpa and P. balsamifera and evaluated the demographic context of hybridisation over time. We found genetic structure differed among the seven transects. While ancestry was structured by climate, landscape features influenced gene flow dynamics. Demographic models indicated a secondary contact event may have influenced contemporary hybrid zone formation with the origin of a putative hybrid lineage that inhabits regions with higher aridity than either of the ancestral groups. Phylogenetic relationships based on chloroplast genomes support the origin of this hybrid lineage inferred from demographic models based on the nuclear data. Our results point towards the importance of climate and landscape patterns in structuring the contact zones between P. trichocarpa and P. balsamifera and emphasise the value whole genome sequencing can have to advancing our understanding of how neutral processes influence divergence across space and time.

Willingness to pay for improved working conditions of nurses: Results from a factorial survey experiment in Germany

BackgroundMany countries face substantial shortages of skilled nurses. With an aging population and global demographic changes, developing a skilled workforce of nurses has become one of the central challenges for public health care. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated labor shortages, which pose a threat to the quality of publicly provided health care. Improving nurses' working conditions could be a means by which to address the global shortages of nurses. However, in countries with public health care, such improvements may come with additional costs in the form of higher taxes or social security contributions. Therefore, such improvements partly depend on people's willingness to pay (WTP) for them. ObjectiveIn this paper, we investigate workers' willingness to pay for improvements in the working conditions of nurses. DesignThis study is a factorial survey experiment included as part of an online survey. Setting(s)The factorial survey experiment was implemented within the high-frequency online panel survey “Life and Employment in Times of Corona” (IAB-HOPP) conducted by the Institute for Employment Research (Germany). ParticipantsWe analyze data from N = 2128 survey participants; our main analysis consists of N = 6384 responses from those participants. MethodsOur research is based on a factorial survey experiment (vignette analysis) designed to quantitatively measure the willingness to pay for various improvements in the working conditions of nurses. We use random effect models and mixed models to estimate the individual-level willingness to pay for these improvements. ResultsOur results show that the survey participants are generally willing to pay for particular policies aimed at improving the working conditions of nurses. However, the amount that respondents are willing to pay varies with the type of policy changes. Survey participants exhibit a high willingness to pay for increases in minimum wages for nurses and wage-related improvements in general. We find, however, a lower willingness to pay for the right to participate in training courses aimed at reducing work-related stress. ConclusionsThe broad support for improvements in the working conditions of nurses provides policymakers with some guidance in implementing policy measures that might address labor shortages in the nursing sector. RegistrationThere was no preregistration. Tweetable abstractMany people are willing to pay extra to improve the working conditions of nurses. Wage-related increases for nurses show the highest willingness to pay.

Gendering the Climate Justice: Post-colonial Ecofeminism in Pakistan

The primary objective of this research is to enhance the understanding of environmental behavior within the context of ‘Eco-feminist Activity’ in Pakistan. This purpose has been partially achieved through the analysis of Scholarly Literature; Media Representations; Initiatives by environmental non-governmental organizations; and the actions undertaken by activists. The involvement of women in environmental conservation is of paramount importance in the context of development. However, this study presents compelling evidence of a noteworthy correlation between the environment and women. The main aim of this study is to enhance the comprehension regarding various elements that contribute to climate change, including but not limited to population expansion, deforestation, pollution, and demographic shifts. The cultural dimensions of ecofeminism have led to an increased environmental consciousness among women worldwide, including those in Pakistan. The primary objective of this study is to examine the various factors that contribute to; climate change, namely population increase, deforestation, pollution, and demographic changes. This study uses a gender analysis methodology to examine and propose practical remedies for the aforementioned concerns. The active engagement of ecofeminist women in policymaking is of utmost importance. The distinctive viewpoint that these people hold as active participants in the societal environment and biological ecosystem can explain the aforementioned occurrence.

Assessing multiple free-roaming dog control strategies in a flexible agent-based model

Management of free-roaming dog populations is required to mitigate the threat of pathogens like rabies, minimize conflict with people, wildlife, and livestock and improve dog welfare however there are multiple strategies currently employed including sterilization, vaccination, and lethal removal. This work describes an agent-based stochastic model, ‘StreetDogSim’ that can be used as a planning tool to investigate the predicted impact of different strategies with variable implementation approaches and adjustable parameters to match local conditions. Here, we explore the effects of different management strategies with additional variation in their duration, intensity, and vaccine quality on important population metrics such as overall size, demographics, vaccination coverage, time until effective population suppression, and duration of suppression. Under most model parameterizations, a strategy that targets females for sterilization with vaccination outperforms all other options with respect to population control and demographic changes.

Artificial light at night alters predation on colour-polymorphic camouflaged prey

Artificial light at night (ALAN) disrupts biological processes across taxa and at all levels of organisation. Despite growing interest in this globally pervasive sensory pollutant, its impact on colour-guided processes remains largely unexplored. This is especially concerning given the rapid transition in recent years away from narrow-spectrum lighting and towards broad-spectrum options such as white LEDs, which are rich in the short wavelengths of light to which many taxa are particularly sensitive. Camouflage is particularly likely to be disrupted by broader spectra of ALAN due to changes in conspicuousness in background matching prey, which may alter prey recognition in visually guided predators. We simulated natural intensities of moonlight with and without ALAN, using both broad-spectrum (‘white’) ALAN and ALAN filtered to remove the characteristic short (blue) wavelength peak of broad-spectrum LEDs to test whether filtering might mitigate their effects. We tested how exposure to these light treatments impacted predator-prey interactions, using the intertidal crab Carcinus maenas and contrasting colour morphs of the colour-polymorphic snail Littorina obtusata as a model system. Exposure to broad-spectrum ALAN reduced overall predation and reversed the pattern of colour-based prey selection observed under control conditions. Snails were 55 % less likely to be attacked under broad-spectrum ALAN than in control conditions, with likelihood decreasing over 70 % for yellow snails. Yellow snails were over 26 % more likely to be attacked than brown ones under control conditions, but brown snails were over 40 % more likely to be attacked than yellow ones under broad-spectrum ALAN. Exposure to filtered ALAN removed any significant colour-based difference in prey recognition. Our results demonstrate that spectral composition is a crucial aspect of ALAN as a sensory pollutant, capable of instigating profound changes in predator-prey interactions that could drive changes in population demography and increase morphological homogeneity in species that depend on colour polymorphism for camouflage.

Population Policies and Demographic Change Process Implemented in the 100th Anniversary of the Republic

Rasyonelleşme, sekülerleşme ve sanayiye dayalı üretim ile birlikte oluşan ulus devlet formu, demografik yapı ve bu yapının nesnel ve sosyal niteliklerini daha da önemli hale getirmiştir. Buna bağlı olarak nüfus yapısı, siyaset kurumunun temel konusu haline gelmiştir. Günümüzde refah devleti uygulamaları, gelişmiş sağlık imkânları ve modern dünyanın insanlara sunduğu yaşam koşulları dünya nüfusunu hızla artırmaktadır. Ayrıca başta göç olmak üzere eğitim ve turizm gibi aktiviteler ve ulaşım teknolojisinin hız ve konfor imkânlarıyla birlikte dünya nüfusu hareket halindedir. Bu bağlamda eğitim, sağlık, barınma, yoksulluğun önlenmesi ve üretimin sürdürülmesi gibi hedefler siyaset kurumunun temel konuları olmuştur. Bu çalışmada demografik yapının boyutları ve nüfus artışı veya azalışına neden olan politikalar ve bu politikalara dayalı olarak şekillenen demografik tutum ve değişim süreçleri tartışılmaktadır. Cumhuriyet’in ilanından günümüze kadar uygulanan nüfus politikaları ve bu politikalara bağlı olarak demografik yapıda görülen değişiklikler çalışmanın konusudur. Cumhuriyetin bir asırlık tarihinde uygulanan nüfus politikaları ve bu politikaların siyasi ve sosyal sebepleri ve sonuçlarını irdeleme amacı taşıyan bu çalışmada dokümantasyon yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın araştırma sorusu: Cumhuriyet’in 100 yıllık tarihinde hangi nüfus politikalar uygulanmış ve bir asırlık süreçte demografik değişim süreci nasıl bir seyir izlemiştir? Bu bağlamda Cumhuriyet tarihi boyunca yapılan genel nüfus sayımları ve sayımlardan elde edilen demografik veriler ilgili kurumların (Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu, Resmi Gazeteler, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı vb.) rapor ve yayımlarından yararlanılmıştır. Kurtuluş Savaşı’ndan çıkmış Gazi Milletin hem nicelik (toplam nüfus sayısı) hem de nitelik (eğitim durumu vb.) olarak yara aldığı bir gerçektir. Bu sebeple Cumhuriyetin ilk yıllarında nüfusu artırmaya yönelik politikalar yürütülmüştür. Bekârlık vergisi uygulaması bunun en somut örneğidir. 1960 yıllardan sonra ise kalkınma planlarında doğum kontrolü ve aile planlaması gündeme gelmiştir. Artan nüfusun ekonomik ve sosyal kalkınma üzerinde baskı yarattığı düşüncesiyle nüfus artış hızı düşürülmeye çalışılmıştır. 2000’li yıllardan sonra – özellikle 2008 sonrasında – nüfusu artırmaya yönelik politikalar yürütüldüğü anlaşılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Cumhuriyet dönemi nüfus politikaları 1963’e kadar nüfus artırmaya yönelik (pronatalist politika), 1963’ten 2000’li yıllara kadar aile planlaması ve nüfus kontrolünün olduğu (anti-natalist politika) dönem ve 2000’li yıllardan sonra nüfusu artırmaya yönelik politikalar yürütülmüştür

Relevance of Indigenous Knowledge in Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in the 21st Century Uganda

Sub-Saharan Africa is endowed with indigenous knowledge systems and natural forest resources critical to supporting several forms of development. However, the region has experienced rapid population growth and demographic changes, which may lead to a decline in forest resources. Sustainable management of these resources is critical for a healthy forest ecosystem that should continue to provide goods and services to the present and future generations. Of the variety of management strategies employed in the sustainable management of forest resources, indigenous knowledge provides a plausible alternative. To ascertain the relevance of this knowledge, the Lugbara community in Yumbe district, northwestern Uganda, was considered. Data were collected from 371 respondents using questionnaires and 19 key informants using interviews; others included participatory GIS and remote sensing. Data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, thematic and content analysis, and a forest cover change matrix. The results indicated a highly significant correlation between IK availability and usefulness of 0.703 at 0.01 level, and the socioeconomic and demographic variables tested statistically significant with sub-county of origin alone accounting for 11.7% of the variations in utilisation of IK in forest management. Indigenous knowledge was mostly used in the management of community forest resources, while modern scientific approaches were used in managing public forests. The forest resources were not sustainably managed despite the relatively high prevalence of IK. The linear model summary results were marginally significant, indicating that the prevalence of IK accounted for only approximately six% (R2 = .059) of the variations in SMFR. However, there was a resurrected interest in the use of IK since some forests managed using strict customary laws were the most biologically diverse. The resurrected interest implies that the IK remains relevant in the 21st century. The study therefore, recommends that IK practises be documented, promoted, and integrated into modern formal approaches to achieve SMFR

Pleistocene glaciations caused the latitudinal gradient of within-species genetic diversity.

Intraspecific genetic diversity is a key aspect of biodiversity. Quaternary climatic change and glaciation influenced intraspecific genetic diversity by promoting range shifts and population size change. However, the extent to which glaciation affected genetic diversity on a global scale is not well established. Here we quantify nucleotide diversity, a common metric of intraspecific genetic diversity, in more than 38,000 plant and animal species using georeferenced DNA sequences from millions of samples. Results demonstrate that tropical species contain significantly more intraspecific genetic diversity than nontropical species. To explore potential evolutionary processes that may have contributed to this pattern, we calculated summary statistics that measure population demographic change and detected significant correlations between these statistics and latitude. We find that nontropical species are more likely to deviate from neutral expectations, indicating that they have historically experienced dramatic fluctuations in population size likely associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles. By analyzing the most comprehensive data set to date, our results imply that Quaternary climate perturbations may be more important as a process driving the latitudinal gradient in species richness than previously appreciated.

River Defense and Fleet Building: The Song Navy in the Wars against the Jin and Mongol Forces

Abstract The Song dynasty established a standing naval force, which was ignored by some historians since Song lost its defensive wars to the Jin and Mongol forces. This article examines improvements and innovations of Chinese naval operations during Song and pays particular attention to how the state economic reforms and state-centered financial system supported naval development. Song’s population growth and demographic changes also provided manpower for the government to maintain a huge army while establishing a large navy. As the new age of naval and siege warfare emerged, gunpowder weapons and new naval technology became more widespread. The Chinese military adapted to naval warfare during the Southern Song because it was economically and technologically possible. The south’s mastery of riverine warfare created a substantial defensive advantage against the north. Thus, when the Mongols later mastered riverine warfare, they penetrated throughout the south.

Population dependency and inflation: a study of high- and upper-middle-income countries

In recent years, whether demographic change creates an inflationary trend is examined frequently. Debates on whether the decrease in the population at active working age and the dependency ratio because of the increasing old age cause an inflationary trend points to an area where no consensus can be reached. In this context, the tendency of the total population dependency ratio, young population dependency ratio and elderly population dependency ratio to affect inflation, which represents population aging and demographic change, was examined in this study. Panel cointegration, panel ARDL and panel causality analysis methods were used in the study conducted on 29 Upper Middle and High Income country economies in the period covering 1980-2020. The main findings got from the study reveal that the elderly population dependency ratio, which is defined as the elderly population dependency in the short term, has a deflationary effect, while the young population dependence has an inflationary effect in the long term. Key words: population dependency, inflation, cointgration, panel data analysis, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality

Global Distribution of Founder Variants Associated with Non-Syndromic Hearing Impairment.

The genetic etiology of non-syndromic hearing impairment (NSHI) is highly heterogeneous with over 124 distinct genes identified. The wide spectrum of implicated genes has challenged the implementation of molecular diagnosis with equal clinical validity in all settings. Differential frequencies of allelic variants in the most common NSHI causal gene, gap junction beta 2 (GJB2), has been described as stemming from the segregation of a founder variant and/or spontaneous germline variant hot spots. We aimed to systematically review the global distribution and provenance of founder variants associated with NSHI. The study protocol was registered on PROSPERO, the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, with the registration number "CRD42020198573". Data from 52 reports, involving 27,959 study participants from 24 countries, reporting 56 founder pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in 14 genes (GJB2, GJB6, GSDME, TMC1, TMIE, TMPRSS3, KCNQ4, PJVK, OTOF, EYA4, MYO15A, PDZD7, CLDN14, and CDH23), were reviewed. Varied number short tandem repeats (STRs) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used for haplotype analysis to identify the shared ancestral informative markers in a linkage disequilibrium and variants' origins, age estimates, and common ancestry computations in the reviewed reports. Asia recorded the highest number of NSHI founder variants (85.7%; 48/56), with variants in all 14 genes, followed by Europe (16.1%; 9/56). GJB2 had the highest number of ethnic-specific P/LP founder variants. This review reports on the global distribution of NSHI founder variants and relates their evolution to population migration history, bottleneck events, and demographic changes in populations linked with the early evolution of deleterious founder alleles. International migration and regional and cultural intermarriage, coupled to rapid population growth, may have contributed to re-shaping the genetic architecture and structural dynamics of populations segregating these pathogenic founder variants. We have highlighted and showed the paucity of data on hearing impairment (HI) variants in Africa, establishing unexplored opportunities in genetic traits.

The Possibility of Reorganising Transit-oriented Development

There has been much discussion about the shift to compact cities in the last decade. Transit-oriented development (TOD) has been introduced in many countries to promote compact cities. However, low density occurs with heterogeneous and random spatial patterns. It impedes the creation of people-friendly, sustainable cities, making it challenging to attract the investments necessary to create a compact city’s core. This phenomenon is a serious issue during periods of population decline. Therefore, this paper clarifies the occurrence pattern of low-density districts around railway stations and their related spatial characteristics to understand better how to reorganize transit-oriented urban structures in a society with a declining population. We have observed the population demographic and household demographic change beside railway lines of the Keihanshin conurbation within the Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe metropolitan region, the second-largest urban area in Japan. Our research questions are “Do low-density populations exist in railway station areas?”, and “If yes, are they concentrated at a particular point or dispersed?” The results of our research are as follows; 1. Some railway stations are experiencing low density growth in their surrounding areas. 2. Thirteen patterns of low-density appearance in the station sphere are observed. 3. Stations with low densification disperse, but at a relatively lower ratio in the inter-urban area. 4. There are three primary routes for low density progression. These results will be helpful in future urban planning, including site optimization, and can help attract facilities and mutual support between regions.

Population Characteristics of Feral Horses Impacted by Anthropogenic Factors and Their Management Implications

Feral horses form relatively stable harems over time that are characterized by long-lasting bonds among their members, a characteristic that makes them an exceptional case of a social system among terrestrial ungulates. Their social system has been described as uniform despite the wide differences in their environment and demography. Horse populations subjected to human interference often show higher levels of population instability that can ultimately compromise their reproductive success. In this article, we describe demographic and dynamic changes of a Portuguese population of Garranos in Serra d’Arga (SA), which is impacted by human and predation pressures, over six breeding seasons. Furthermore, we tested several hypotheses related to the impact of anthropogenic disturbance on the structure and dynamics of this population. Our results revealed that the SA population had relatively little human interference at the start of the project in 2016. This was supported by the natural composition of the herd (total number of individuals, 206), which consisted of several single- and multi-male harems (n= 17 and 7, respectively) and bachelor males (n= 9). However, from 2017 to 2021, SA’s Garrano population suffered a drastic decline. Approximately two-thirds of the individuals and all bachelor males disappeared, and 76% of adult female transfers occurred after the death or disappearance of the harem male. Predatory pressures and poor management of the population, which allowed illegal human interference, contributed to this population crisis. A low population growth rate, reduced birth and foal survival rates, in addition to a delayed primiparous age were observed in this population and exacerbated after its drastic decline; suggesting the viability and survival of this Garrano population were compromised. Investigating the population demographic changes and their causes and consequences can provide guidelines for managing populations and help fight the extinction of horse breeds.

A systematic map of demographic data from elephant populations throughout Africa: implications for poaching and population analyses

Abstract The crisis facing Africa’s elephant populations is a notorious example of ongoing wildlife declines caused by illegal harvesting. Targeted conservation interventions require detailed knowledge about changes in population sizes and the effect of illegal activities. However, accurately quantifying poaching intensity is a difficult task: commonly calculated from ranger‐based carcass‐encounter data, the proportion of illegally killed elephants (PIKE) is a function of poaching and background mortality. Hence, at constant poaching intensity, PIKE decreases with increasing natural mortality and also with hunting, management interventions, and other anthropogenically induced deaths. Natural mortality is often more difficult to quantify with accuracy than mortality due to illegal killing, as elephants that die naturally are more likely to be missed than those taken by poachers. In recent analyses, constant background mortality rates were assumed. Yet, for example climate‐driven fluctuations in natural mortality, if not quantified and accounted for, may lead to biased estimates of poaching intensity. Varying background mortality rates can be accounted for in the analysis of PIKE, but this requires near‐complete counts of natural and management‐related deaths and hunting records. Carefully developed population models, which simulate population dynamics and demographic changes while accounting for variation in environmental conditions and management strategies, are alternatives. However, successful calibration of such models requires integrating comprehensive demographic data. We systematically review the scientific and ‘grey’ literature on African elephant demography with the objective of facilitating poaching and population analysis possibilities through an inventory of information relevant to demography. Our screening of 10900 publications resulted in the review of relevant information provided by 431 studies from 420 study sites throughout Africa. From these, we extracted demographic data collected between 1900 and 2017, and collated them in the newly created African Elephant Demographic Database (AEDD; 10.6084/m9.figshare.19387085). We found 37 natural mortality estimates from five different study sites. Other mortality data, demographic rates, and age‐ and sex‐structured population data were substantially more abundant, both temporally and spatially. This new collection of demographic rates, age‐ and sex‐structured population data, and cause‐partitioned mortality estimates identifies spatial and temporal data gaps and provides prior information needed for African elephant population models. Closing these data gaps and subsequent analyses of realistic population models may aid elephant conservation via improved policies, legislation, and protection.

Groundwater Storage Analysis Using Deterministic Model Approach for Water Resources Management of Zamfara part of Sokoto-Rima Basin, Nigeria

The study area is entirely located within the Sokoto-Rima hydrological basin of Northwest, Nigeria. Groundwater is widely used for drinking, domestic and agricultural purposes in Zamfara water catchment. The mismanagement of groundwater resources could cause negative effects including depletion of aquifer storage and groundwater level decline. To assure sustainability of the available resources, determination of groundwater budget is necessary. Deterministic model approach was used, which required three quantities (Available water quantity, Abstractible and Storable water volume). In this study meteorological water budget (MWB), water level fluctuation (WTF), and groundwater budget based on geological framework (GBBDF) were used to estimate water budget. Groundwater recharge and abstraction rate were calculated from 280 borehole data across the water catchment area. The average groundwater budget of the study area was calculated as 111,693,470 m3/year with the MWB method and it was calculated as 111,342,057.3m3/year and 73,463,099 m3/year with the WTF and (GBBDF) methods respectively. The groundwater abstraction for domestic/agricultural uses was calculated to be higher to that of aquifer recharge. Thus prudent measure has to be adopted for adequate water use per head as population increase and demographic change will exacerbate more stress on the availability of this precious resources aside the climate change impact. The implication is that further proliferation of borehole wells will deplete the entire aquifer and subject it to be devoid of manageable storage capacity, particularly in the crystalline aquiferous units. It is clear that, if conceptual hydrogeological modelling of the catchment is well known and reliable data are obtained, the MWB method gives accurate results in the basins. However, comparison of multiple methods is valuable for determining the plausible budget amount and for highlighting the uncertainty of the estimate.

Kasurdi health and demographic surveillance system: A profile and way forward.

Kasurdi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kasurdi HDSS) was established at Rural Health Training Center Kasurdi on February 16, 2018. Kasurdi HDSS has been established to increase the research potential of medical colleges and develop real-time data for research purposes to study the changes in population demography, health, and health-care utilization. Kasurdi HDSS currently follows 2755 individuals living in 549 households. The system collects the data from the population through annual rounds conducted by postgraduate residents of the department of community medicine. The data are collected in the digital format with the help of android-based tablets. HDSS has collected demographic data, reproductive data, data on diseases such as tuberculosis and noncommunicable diseases, and socioeconomic data. The HDSS is in the process to upgrade its data management system to a more integrated platform, coordinated and guided by national/international standards, and data sharing policy.

Population reinforcement and demographic changes needed to stabilise the population of a migratory vulture

Abstract One approach to stabilise small and declining populations is to breed individuals in captivity and release them into the wild to reinforce existing populations while working to reduce threats. Population reinforcement programmes require long‐term commitments to be successful and can divert limited resources from other conservation measures. A rigorous evaluation whether reinforcement can stabilise a population is therefore essential to justify investments. Many migratory species incur high mortality during their first migration, and releasing captive‐bred birds at an older age may therefore benefit reinforcement programmes for migratory birds. We examine whether a small and declining population of a long‐distance migratory raptor—the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus—can be stabilised using population reinforcement that reduces mortality during the first migration. We used an integrated population model to evaluate realistic reinforcement and survival improvement scenarios to estimate how many captive‐bred birds would need to be released to stabilise the population. Survival probability of wild juveniles during their first year (0.296; 95% CI 0.234–0.384) was too low for a stable population (population growth rate 0.949; 95% CI 0.940–0.956), but captive‐bred juveniles released in their second calendar year had improved survival (0.566; 95% CI 0.265–0.862) during their first year in the wild. Reinforcement of 15 birds per year for 30 years was insufficient to achieve a neutral or positive population growth rate. However, reinforcement reduced the probability of extinction by 2049 from 48% without reinforcement to <1% if 12 or more birds were released every year for 30 years. A 6% increase in annual survival probability would likely lead to a stable population without any reinforcement. Synthesis and applications. Although releasing captive‐bred birds can reduce high juvenile mortality during first migration and assist in postponing local extinction, further improvements of survival in the wild are required to safeguard a migratory population where threats in the wild will persist for decades despite management.