Population Crashes Research Articles

Evidence of a twofold ecological trap driven by agricultural change causing a priority farmland bird population crash

AbstractExtensive farmland in Europe hosts high biodiversity levels but is threatened by land use changes associated with market and agricultural policy drivers. We show that a nationwide replacement of rainfed cereals in favor of beef production in Portugal has coincided with a nearly 80% decline in the population of a ground‐nesting raptor, the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, since 2002. Reduced cereal crop cover led to nesting attempts occurring mostly in fodder crops, the predominant habitat with suitable sward structure at the onset of breeding. This results in a twofold ecological trap: early hay harvesting destroys first nesting attempts, whereas late cereal harvesting destroys replacement clutches. This double phenological mismatch prevents any breeding success and likely explains the country's observed population decline of Montagu's harriers and other key farmland birds. Reforming current agroenvironmental schemes to promote practices compatible with wild population phenology is paramount to revert these changes.

Assessing the information-content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate.

Understanding the dynamics of population recovery in threatened species requires robust longitudinal monitoring datasets. However, evidence-based decision-making is often impeded by variable data collection approaches, necessitating critical evaluation of restricted available baselines. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest primate, had possibly declined to only seven or eight individuals in 1978 at Bawangling National Nature Reserve but has experienced subsequent population growth. Past population estimates lack detailed reporting of survey effort, and multiple conflicting estimates are available, hindering assessment of gibbon recovery. We investigated all reported estimates of Bawangling gibbon population size from 1978 to 2022, to evaluate the biological signal of population trends and the extent to which noise associated with varying survey effort, reporting and estimation may mask or misrepresent any underlying signal. This longitudinal dataset demonstrates that the Bawangling population experienced a series of bottlenecks and recoveries, with three successive periods of growth interspersed by population crashes (1978-1989, 1989-2000 and 2000-2022). The rate of gibbon population recovery was progressively slower over time in each successive period of growth, and this potential decline in recovery rate following serial bottlenecks suggests that additional management strategies may be required alongside "nature-based solutions" for this species. However, population viability analysis suggests the 1978 founder population is unlikely to have been as low as seven individuals, raising concerns for interpreting reported historical population counts and understanding the dynamics of the species' recovery. We caution against overinterpreting potential signals within "messy" conservation datasets, and we emphasise the crucial importance of standardised replicable survey methods and transparent reporting of data and effort in all future surveys of Hainan gibbons and other highly threatened species.

Direct and indirect costs of parasitism preceding a population decline of an Arctic ungulate

Parasites negatively affect the fitness of ungulate hosts directly, and in wild ungulates, these effects may be synzootic with other stressors, such as limited nutritional resources. In the Arctic, muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) occur in a highly seasonal environment and must rely on finite energetic resources for survival and productivity. We investigated the costs of gastrointestinal nematodes on the body condition and reproductive status of 141 muskoxen, on Banks Island, Canada, when the population was at a peak in numbers and density. Using a Partial Least Squares Path Modelling approach, we found that high adult nematode abundance was associated with lower body condition, and high parasite abundance was associated with female reproduction including the indirect effect through on body condition (n = 87). These findings suggest that individuals prioritize energetic reserves for reproduction over parasite defence. In fall 2003, a severe icing event that restricted access to forage was associated with high overwinter mortality of muskoxen and a population crash. Through direct and indirect costs of parasite infection on body condition and reproduction, the high abundance of parasites may have contributed to the effects of this extreme weather event. Understanding the mechanisms in which parasites impact fitness can help explain the ecological drivers of ungulate populations and predict the interactions between the environment and populations.

Extant and extinct bilby genomes combined with Indigenous knowledge improve conservation of a unique Australian marsupial

Ninu (greater bilby, Macrotis lagotis) are desert-dwelling, culturally and ecologically important marsupials. In collaboration with Indigenous rangers and conservation managers, we generated the Ninu chromosome-level genome assembly (3.66 Gbp) and genome sequences for the extinct Yallara (lesser bilby, Macrotis leucura). We developed and tested a scat single-nucleotide polymorphism panel to inform current and future conservation actions, undertake ecological assessments and improve our understanding of Ninu genetic diversity in managed and wild populations. We also assessed the beneficial impact of translocations in the metapopulation (N = 363 Ninu). Resequenced genomes (temperate Ninu, 6; semi-arid Ninu, 6; and Yallara, 4) revealed two major population crashes during global cooling events for both species and differences in Ninu genes involved in anatomical and metabolic pathways. Despite their 45-year captive history, Ninu have fewer long runs of homozygosity than other larger mammals, which may be attributable to their boom–bust life history. Here we investigated the unique Ninu biology using 12 tissue transcriptomes revealing expression of all 115 conserved eutherian chorioallantoic placentation genes in the uterus, an XY1Y2 sex chromosome system and olfactory receptor gene expansions. Together, we demonstrate the holistic value of genomics in improving key conservation actions, understanding unique biological traits and developing tools for Indigenous rangers to monitor remote wild populations.

Asian swamp eels (Synbranchidae, Monopterus) in Florida: distribution, spread, and range of hydrologic tolerance over twenty-seven years (1997–2023)

Asian swamp eels (Monopterus albus/javanensis) were first reported as introduced to Florida waterbodies in 1997 near Tampa and Miami; a third population was recorded by 1999 in Homestead. Initial assessments, published soon after swamp eels in southern Florida were first recorded in wetlands beyond canals and ponds (in 2007), concluded there was little threat to Florida’s aquatic ecosystems. Long-term data now suggest they precipitated population crashes of crayfishes and small fishes in the eastern Everglades. We used records from continuous long-term monitoring programs, sporadic monitoring studies, and online databases to reconstruct swamp eel presence across Florida. Monitoring studies provided wetland hydrologic variables to assess limits for swamp eels. From 1997–2007, populations in southern Florida remained restricted to canals; initial spread from 2007–2017 across southern Everglades National Park proceeded slowly and the two populations covered ~1500 km2 of southern Florida. From 2017–2022, the rate of spread increased as they spread west and north (~5800 km2 range). Through 2014, the Tampa population occurred only along southern/eastern Tampa Bay (~60 km2) but has since spread south along the Gulf Coast, east into central Florida, and south along the Lake Wales Ridge (~11,000 km2). We found evidence of two potentially new introductions, in Palm Beach County and Orlando. There was no clear evidence of limitation of wetland drying on swamp eel occurrence in the Everglades; they were captured in marshes that dried for 1–5 months during the previous dry season, but short-hydroperiod wetlands may have slowed spread. In the Everglades, evidence suggests swamp eels may have been inadvertently spread into marshes from canals used to deliver water for flood control and hydrologic restoration. Swamp eels are currently spreading unchecked across Florida, and there should be great concern about continued spread in this region and their establishment and spread elsewhere.

Predator–Prey Interaction with Fear Effects: Stability, Bifurcation and Two-Parameter Analysis Incorporating Complex and Fractal Behavior

This study investigates the dynamics of predator–prey interactions with non-overlapping generations under the influence of fear effects, a crucial factor in ecological research. We propose a novel discrete-time model that addresses limitations of previous models by explicitly incorporating fear. Our primary question is: How does fear influence the stability of predator–prey populations and the potential for chaotic dynamics? We analyze the model to identify biologically relevant equilibria (fixed points) and determine the conditions for their stability. Bifurcation analysis reveals how changes in fear levels and predation rates can lead to population crashes (transcritical bifurcation) and complex population fluctuations (period-doubling and Neimark–Sacker bifurcations). Furthermore, we explore the potential for controlling chaotic behavior using established methods. Finally, two-parameter analysis employing Lyapunov exponents, spectrum, and Kaplan–Yorke dimension quantifies the chaotic dynamics of the proposed system across a range of fear and predation levels. Numerical simulations support the theoretical findings. This study offers valuable insights into the impact of fear on predator–prey dynamics and paves the way for further exploration of chaos control in ecological models.

Host population crashes disrupt the diversity of associated marine microbiomes.

Host-associated microbial communities are shaped by myriad factors ranging from host conditions, environmental conditions and other microbes. Disentangling the ecological impact of each of these factors can be particularly difficult as many variables are correlated. Here, we leveraged earthquake-induced changes in host population structure to assess the influence of population crashes on marine microbial ecosystems. A large (7.8 magnitude) earthquake in New Zealand in 2016 led to widespread coastal uplift of up to ~6 m, sufficient to locally extirpate some intertidal southern bull kelp populations. These uplifted populations are slowly recovering, but remain at much lower densities than at nearby, less-uplifted sites. By comparing the microbial communities of the hosts from disturbed and relatively undisturbed populations using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, we observed that disturbed host populations supported higher functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic microbial beta diversity than non-disturbed host populations. Our findings shed light on microbiome ecological assembly processes, particularly highlighting that large-scale disturbances that affect host populations can dramatically influence microbiome structure. We suggest that disturbance-induced changes in host density limit the dispersal opportunities of microbes, with host community connectivity declining with the density of host populations.

Catastrophic and noncatastrophic population crashes in a bitrophic system with dynamic additional food provision to cooperative predators.

In this article we contemplate the dynamics of an additional food-provided prey-predator system. We assume that the behavior of cooperative predators induces fear in prey, which radically affects the prey's birth and death rates. We observe that the structural instability imposed by strong cooperative hunting among predators goes away with higher intensities of fear levels affecting the prey's reproductive output and mortality. High levels of prey refuge are not conducive to the survival of predators. In such a situation, adequate supply of high-quality additional food is favorable regarding the persistence and stability of the system. Interestingly, the system potentially exhibits two stable configurations under identical ecological conditions by allowing different bifurcation scenarios, including saddle-node and backward bifurcations, and associated hysteresis effects with prey refuge along with additional food quantity and quality. In the stochastic environment, the system experiences critical transitions through bifurcation-induced tipping events with time-varying additional food for predators. Enhanced disturbance events promote noise-induced switching and tipping events. Finally, our investigation explores whether impending population crashes resulting from the variability of additional food quantity and quality can reliably be predicted using early warning signals in the context of redshifted noise. Overall, our results may provide insights for finding control strategies in the context of community ecology.

Influence of interactive effects on long-term population trajectories in multispecies reintroductions.

Reintroduced populations are typically considered to progress through establishment, growth, and regulatory phases. However, most reintroduction programs do not monitor intensively enough to test this conceptual model. We studied population indices derived from track activity of 4 threatened species (greater bilby [Macrotis lagotis], burrowing bettong [Bettongia lesueur], greater stick-nest rat [Leporillus conditor], and Shark Bay bandicoot [Perameles bougainville]) over 23years after multiple reintroductions of each species in arid Australia. We compared population trajectories among species and investigated the effect of time and environmental variables. All species bred immediately after release, and the growth phase lasted 3-16years, varying markedly among but not within species. The end of the growth phase was characterized by an obvious peak in population density followed by either a catastrophic decline and sustained low density (bettongs), a slow decline to extirpation after 20years (stick-nest rat), or a slight decline followed by irregular fluctuations (bilby and bandicoot). Minor fluctuations were related to environmental variables, including 12-month cumulative rainfall and lagged summer maximum temperatures. Three of the 4 species did not reach a regulation phase, even after 23years, possibly due to interspecific competition and trophic cascades triggered by predator removal and multispecies reintroductions. Bilbies and bandicoots exhibited a second growth phase 18years after reintroduction, likely caused by high rainfall and increased resources following the population crash of overabundant bettongs. Our results suggest that assemblages within multispecies reintroductions demonstrate high variability in population trajectories due to interactive effects. Intensive monitoring to assess population viability may require decades, particularly where multiple species are reintroduced, release sites are confined, and the climate is unpredictable. Intensive monitoring also allows for adaptive management to prevent precipitous population declines. Practitioners should not assume reintroduced species pass through predictable postrelease population phases or that viability is assured after a certain period.

Development and evaluation of a novel single nucleotide polymorphism panel for North American bison.

Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping platforms have become increasingly popular in characterizing livestock and wildlife populations, replacing traditional methods such as microsatellite fragment analysis. Herein, we report the development and evaluation of a novel bison SNP panel for population management and conservation. Initially, 2474 autosomal SNPs were selected from existing bison whole-genome sequences and variable sites among bison on the GGSP bovine 50K Chip, based on minor allele frequency, data completeness, and chromosome location. Additionally, 20 mitochondrial SNPs were chosen to identify known mitochondrial haplotypes in bison according to previous research. The SNPs were further evaluated using genotyping-by-sequencing with 190 bison, representing the historical lineages that survived the major population crash of the late 1800s. Variants with high potential for genotyping error were filtered out, and the remaining SNPs were placed on a custom Illumina™ array. The final panel consisting of 798 autosomal and 13 mitochondrial SNPs was used to establish baseline genetic parameters, compare populations, and assign mitochondrial haplotypes in 995 bison across ten populations. These SNPs were also found to be highly informative for individual animal identification and parentage assignment. This SNP panel provides a powerful new method to establish a baseline for estimating genetic health of bison populations and a new tool for bison managers to make informed management decisions based on genetic information specific to their populations.

Alcohol consumption, life history and extinction risk among Raute hunter–gatherers from Nepal

Abstract Hunter–gatherer populations underwent a mass extinction in the Neolithic, and in present times face challenges such as explicit sedentarisation policies. An exception is in Nepal, where the nomadic Raute people receive monthly governmental individual payments. One consequence of the money transfers has been a significant increase in alcohol consumption, with nearly all individuals drinking industrially produced alcohol. Here we investigate the Raute demography based on a full census of 144 individuals. We show that the Raute exhibit the short life expectancies typical of other hunter–gatherer populations from Africa, Asia and America. Bayesian survival trajectory analysis demonstrated that heavy drinking by either parent substantially reduces offspring survival to age 15. Bayesian regressions revealed a significant effect of heavy drinking on maternal fertility by decreasing the number of living children and reducing the proportion of live children at the end of maternal reproductive life. Although the absence of data prior to monetary support precludes a direct assessment of long-term demographic trends, relatively stable population sizes over the last decades and a fertility rate close to the replacement rate rule out an imminent population crash. Further studies are required to elucidate the Rautes’ origins and relationship with other nomadic people in the region.

Habitat remediation followed by managed connectivity reduces unwanted changes in evolutionary trajectory of high extirpation risk populations.

As we continue to convert green spaces into roadways and buildings, connectivity between populations and biodiversity will continue to decline. In threatened and endangered species, this trend is particularly concerning because the cessation of immigration can cause increased inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, leading to lower adaptability and higher extirpation probabilities in these populations. Unfortunately, monitoring changes in genetic diversity from management actions such as assisted migration and predicting the extent of introduced genetic variation that is needed to prevent extirpation is difficult and costly in situ. Therefore, we designed an agent-based model to link population-wide genetic variability and the influx of unique alleles via immigration to population stability and extirpation outcomes. These models showed that management of connectivity can be critical in restoring at-risk populations and reducing the effects of inbreeding depression. However, the rescued populations were more similar to the migrant source population (average FST range 0.05-0.10) compared to the historical recipient population (average FST range 0.23-0.37). This means that these management actions not only recovered the populations from the effects of inbreeding depression, but they did so in a way that changed the evolutionary trajectory that was predicted and expected for these populations prior to the population crash. This change was most extreme in populations with the smallest population sizes, which are representative of critically endangered species that could reasonably be considered candidates for restored connectivity or translocation strategies. Understanding how these at-risk populations change in response to varying management interventions has broad implications for the long-term adaptability of these populations and can improve future efforts for protecting locally adapted allele complexes when connectivity is restored.

Nonconsumptive effects of black sea bass (Centropristis striata) on a crustacean mesopredator and the indirect effects on bivalve survival

The consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of predators on their prey and the indirect effects of these interactions that cascade through food webs have been studied for over half a century. In the northwest Atlantic, the stock of black sea bass (Centropristis striata) steeply declined during the 1980s. While population crashes of fished bivalve species coincided with those of black sea bass, the role of black sea bass in driving trophic cascades that indirectly influence bivalve survival has largely been overlooked. Over the past decade, black sea bass have not only been recovering in abundance but warming water temperatures have been driving a northward expansion of the extent of their seasonal migration, resulting in a particularly strong relative recovery along the south shore of Long Island, New York. To explore whether black sea bass alter the foraging rates of mud crabs (Dyspanopeus sayi) on a species of bivalve, blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), we manipulated the presence and position of sea bass within an array of mesocosm tanks. We found that the presence of black sea bass reduced the proportion of blue mussels consumed by mud crabs. Black sea bass presence indirectly elevated blue mussel survival by as much as 47.7% by reducing mud crab per capita consumption of blue mussels by 57.9%. However, there were limitations to the nonconsumptive effects of black sea bass that appeared to depend on their proximity to mud crabs. While our results are from an experimental setup with a simplified food chain and are context dependent, they emphasize the importance of studying how nonconsumptive effects of specific marine predators influence trophic cascades from both conceptual and applied coastal resource management standpoints. Our results suggest that the recovery of black sea bass may bode well for the population restoration of several species of bivalves within estuaries throughout their range. Further, our study provides evidence that indicates that the nonconsumptive effects of a recovering marine predator can indirectly elevate the survival of a basal food resource species.

Conservation genomics of an endangered montane amphibian reveals low population structure, low genomic diversity and selection pressure from disease.

Wildlife diseases are a major global threat to biodiversity. Boreal toads (Anaxyrus [Bufo] boreas) are a state-endangered species in the southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico, and a species of concern in Wyoming, largely due to lethal skin infections caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We performed conservation and landscape genomic analyses using single nucleotide polymorphisms from double-digest, restriction site-associated DNA sequencing in combination with the development of the first boreal toad (and first North American toad) reference genome to investigate population structure, genomic diversity, landscape connectivity and adaptive divergence. Genomic diversity (π = 0.00034-0.00040) and effective population sizes (Ne = 8.9-38.4) were low, likely due to post-Pleistocene founder effects and Bd-related population crashes over the last three decades. Population structure was also low, likely due to formerly high connectivity among a higher density of geographically proximate populations. Boreal toad gene flow was facilitated by low precipitation, cold minimum temperatures, less tree canopy, low heat load and less urbanization. We found >8X more putatively adaptive loci related to Bd intensity than to all other environmental factors combined, and evidence for genes under selection related to immune response, heart development and regulation and skin function. These data suggest boreal toads in habitats with Bd have experienced stronger selection pressure from disease than from other, broad-scale environmental variations. These findings can be used by managers to conserve and recover the species through actions including reintroduction and supplementation of populations that have declined due to Bd.

Survival and nutritional requirements for overwintering Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae) in Kentucky.

The ability to cope with novel climates is a key determinant of an invasive species' success. Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura, 1931) is an invasive fruit pest, and its seasonality varies across its range. Current evidence suggests that D. suzukii occurs year-round in warmer climates but has low overwintering survival in colder climates and relies on refuges or reinvades each spring. Here, we assessed the capacity of D. suzukii ability to overwinter in Kentucky, a temperate mid-latitude state with relatively mild but variable winters. We tracked year-round population changes for 3 yr and observed the highest populations in early winter months. Following an annual population crash in winter, small numbers of flies remained through the late winter and spring. We also conducted outdoor cage studies to determine the extent to which food resources and microhabitat impact survival and postwinter fecundity under natural conditions. Flies with no food had poor survival during the warmest periods of winter, and flies in all treatments had lower survival in the coldest month. Provisioning flies with either artificial diet or wild berries improved survival. As a follow-up, we determined whether D. suzukii could survive and reproduce after long-term exposure to a typical winter temperature on various wild berries. Drosophila suzukii had the highest survival on privet (Ligustrum sp.), but all berry types yielded higher survival than flies without food. Our results suggest that noncrop berries play an important role for overwintering D. suzukii, and as winters warm the availability of wild berries could influence early-season populations.

Genomics Reveals Complex Population History and Unexpected Diversity of Eurasian Otters (Lutra lutra) in Britain Relative to Genetic Methods.

Conservation genetic analyses of many endangered species have been based on genotyping of microsatellite loci and sequencing of short fragments of mtDNA. The increase in power and resolution afforded by whole genome approaches may challenge conclusions made on limited numbers of loci and maternally inherited haploid markers. Here, we provide a matched comparison of whole genome sequencing versus microsatellite and control region (CR) genotyping for Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra). Previous work identified four genetically differentiated "stronghold" populations of otter in Britain, derived from regional populations that survived the population crash of the 1950s-1980s. Using whole genome resequencing data from 45 samples from across the British stronghold populations, we confirmed some aspects of population structure derived from previous marker-driven studies. Importantly, we showed that genomic signals of the population crash bottlenecks matched evidence from otter population surveys. Unexpectedly, two strongly divergent mitochondrial lineages were identified that were undetectable using CR fragments, and otters in the east of England were genetically distinct and surprisingly variable. We hypothesize that this previously unsuspected variability may derive from past releases of Eurasian otters from other, non-British source populations in England around the time of the population bottleneck. Our work highlights that even reasonably well-studied species may harbor genetic surprises, if studied using modern high-throughput sequencing methods.

Extreme events, trophic chain reactions, and shifts in phenotypic selection

Demographic consequences of rapid environmental change and extreme climatic events (ECEs) can cascade across trophic levels with evolutionary implications that have rarely been explored. Here, we show how an ECE in high Arctic Svalbard triggered a trophic chain reaction, directly or indirectly affecting the demography of both overwintering and migratory vertebrates, ultimately inducing a shift in density-dependent phenotypic selection in migratory geese. A record-breaking rain-on-snow event and ice-locked pastures led to reindeer mass starvation and a population crash, followed by a period of low mortality and population recovery. This caused lagged, long-lasting reductions in reindeer carrion numbers and resultant low abundances of Arctic foxes, a scavenger on reindeer and predator of migratory birds. The associated decrease in Arctic fox predation of goose offspring allowed for a rapid increase in barnacle goose densities. As expected according to r- and K-selection theory, the goose body condition (affecting reproduction and post-fledging survival) maximising Malthusian fitness increased with this shift in population density. Thus, the winter ECE acting on reindeer and their scavenger, the Arctic fox, indirectly selected for higher body condition in migratory geese. This high Arctic study provides rare empirical evidence of links between ECEs, community dynamics and evolution, with implications for our understanding of indirect eco-evolutionary impacts of global change.

Patchy and Pink: Dynamics of a Chlainomonas sp. (Chlamydomonadales, chlorophyta) algal bloom on Bagley Lake, North Cascades, WA.

Snow algal blooms frequently occur throughout alpine and polar environments during spring and summer months; however, our understanding of bloom dynamics is limited. We tracked a recurrent bloom of Chlainomonas sp. on Upper Bagley Lake in the North Cascade Mountains, USA, to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics in bloom color intensity, community photophysiology, and community composition over eight weeks. We found that the algae biomass had a dynamic patchy distribution over space and time, which was decoupled from changes in community composition and life-cycle progress averaged across the bloom. The proportional representation of Chlainomonas sp. remained consistent throughout the study while the overall community composition shows a progression through the bloom. We found that community photophysiology, measured by the maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), decreased on average throughout the bloom. These findings suggest that the Chlainomonas sp. community on Bagley Lake is not simply an algal bloom with rapid increase in biomass followed by a population crash, as is often seen in aquatic systems, though there is a physiological trajectory and sensitivity to environmental stress. These results contribute to our understanding of the biology of Chlainomonas sp. and its response to environmental stress, specifically an extreme warming event.

The levelling-off and recent rapid decline in population density of the highly prolific invasive lionfish on the Saba Bank, Eastern Caribbean

Since its introduction in the Western Atlantic more than 30 years ago, the lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) has spread throughout the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the Western Tropical Atlantic, with massive and unprecedented ecological impacts. This invasion is among the most studied marine fish invasions but very little is still really known about the population dynamics of the species and the factors ultimately governing its abundance. The species was first documented on the Saba Bank in 2010 and rapidly increased in abundance till the end of 2014. In this note we document its rise and subsequent decline in density and thereby describe the species’ third apparent local population boom-bust event for the Greater Caribbean. We also document gradual increases in the mean size of lionfish of the Eastern Caribbean Saba Bank that coincided with the increase and subsequent decline in abundance. Contrary to the previously documented epizootic disease outbreak associated with the population crash observed in the Gulf of Mexico we were unable to find any signs of the occurrence of epizootic disease. We suggest that the population decline on the Saba Bank might have been due to non-local causes. Boom-bust dynamics are often witnessed in biological invasions and have critical implications for both understanding and managing invasive species. While the underlying cause for the boom-bust event we document remains unknown, our work suggests that in the region, ecological feedback mechanisms are gradually developing that can help level-off deleterious population excesses of this invasive species.

Temporal and spatial dynamics of the emerald ash borer invasion in Connecticut as shown by the native digging wasp Cerceris fumipennis (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae).

Detecting and monitoring populations of the invasive emerald ash borer (EAB) is crucial to successful management of the pest and evaluation of its ecological impacts. However, the beetle's cryptic habit makes accurate monitoring costly and time-consuming. Biosurveillance takes advantage of the foraging effort of a predatory wasp Cerceris fumipennis (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae). This native, solitary, ground-nesting hunting wasp hunts adult buprestid beetles to provision its brood cells. By intercepting the hunting wasps, we can learn which species of buprestids are in the surrounding forest. The resulting data provides information on the presence and relative abundance of invasive buprestids like EAB which can supplement other monitoring efforts. In this paper we share results of ten years of biosurveillance surveys of the EAB in Connecticut. Among 112 sites, we observed EAB populations; from first detection, through the population peak and then through to the population crash, matching patterns observed in other regions of the United States. We also observed the spread of the EAB relative abundance as it moved through the state following an invasion front starting in New Haven, Co. The average time from first detection to population crash was nine years. On average, populations peaked three years after first detection, and remained at peak levels for three to four years. Population decline was gradual and took another three to four years. Notably, no evidence of a second introduction to Connecticut was seen with proportional abundance increasing over time after expanding outward from the introduction point. These results corroborate other traditional monitoring efforts in the eastern U.S. and provide independent validation of predicted population dynamics in ash stands.