Population Birth Research Articles

Population characteristics and structure of Türkiye

Türkiye's population figures, initially recorded at 13.6 million during the first population census in 1927, have since surged to 86 million today. Policies aimed at encouraging population growth were pursued actively from 1927 to 1960, shaping Türkiye's demographic landscape. However, a shift occurred in the post-1960 era, where it was deemed imperative to curtail population growth due to its perceived adverse effects on the country's development. This kind approach to its demographic policy prevailed until 2007 when policies favoring population growth were reinstated. This study spans from 1927, marking Türkiye's first official population census, to the present day. The study deals with numerous demographic aspects such as the changing population figure dynamics, growth rates, birth and death statistics, gender distributions, and age demographics over the period from the first 1927 population census to the present. Additionally, a concerted effort is made in this study to delineate the population's segmentation into rural and urban zones, to show reasons prompting its population to transition from rural to urban settings, present the environmental impacts of these migrations, and unravel the intricate relationships between the causes and effects of these migrations. The scope of the study extends beyond a mere record of internal population movements, to include also the records about emigrations from Türkiye to foreign countries and immigrations from those countries back to Türkiye. The study investigates the profound effects of these migrations on social and economic life. Without any doubt, this study will discuss population policies implemented at different times, in terms of their varying impacts on this process and the resulting effects of these policies. Furthermore, the study makes future projections about the future demographic trends in Türkiye.

The role of mild stressors in children's cognition and inflammation: positive and negative impacts depend on timing of exposure.

Although the impact of stressful life events (SLEs) on mental health is well-established, the research on the impact of such stressors on cognitive outcomes has produced mixed results. Arguably, the timing and severity of exposure may play a key role. In this study, we shed light on the relationship between timing of exposure to relatively minor SLEs and cognitive ability in children, while taking into account the role of a plausible biological mediator: inflammation. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a general population birth cohort, we explored the role of relatively minor SLEs, experienced during two crucial developmental stages: up to transition to school (1-4.5years) and up to transition to puberty (5.5-8.5years). We then tested if they may impact differently on inflammatory markers (serum C-reactive protein [CRP] and interleukin 6 [IL-6]) at age 9 and general intelligence, measured with the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence at age 15. Data (n=4,525) were analyzed using path analysis while controlling for covariates. We found that when relatively minor stressful events were experienced up to transition to school they were significantly associated with higher IQ at age 15, whereas when experienced up to transition to puberty they were significantly associated with higher levels of IL-6 at age 9. Results were robust to adjustment for relevant covariates, including IQ at age 8. Mild stressors in childhood may result in positive (i.e., improved cognition) or negative (i.e., inflammation) outcomes depending on the timing of exposure.

Managing the reproduction potential of the population of Russian regions based on machine learning models

The article is devoted to study of the patterns of development of potential for the reproduction of the population of Russian regions, considering the socio-economic situation in them. The purpose of the work is to identify the factors of socio-economic development of Russian regions that have the greatest impact on the level of population reproduction and to analyze the sensitivity of this characteristic to changes in the state of socio-economic situation in Russian regions. To achieve this goal, the key characteristics of the population reproduction potential were analyzed the marginal rate of population reproduction and standardized birth rates for five-year age groups of mothers for the period from 1990 to 2020.The results presented in the article were obtained in the course of studying the dynamics of population reproduction and interdependencies with the main socio-economic indicators of the regions, assessed by the methods of correlation analysis and machine learning, on the results of testing of which the most informative factors were identified that have a significant impact on the process of reproduction of the country and its regions with the account of the age structure of mothers. In particular, it was found that with an increase in the age of mother, the influence of factors characterizing economic well-being increases when deciding to have a child, while in younger age groups the indicators of social well-being become more important. On the basis of these models, estimates of the sensitivity of indicators of population reproduction and birth rates in each of the studied age groups of mothers were obtained in case of changes in the socio-economic factors. Based on the analysis, there were drawn conclusions about the impact of the socio-economic situation in the country and regions on the birth rates in different age groups of mothers, as well as on the reproductive potential in general.

Якби не було війни: прогноз демографічних показників для громад Вишгородського району Київської області

Demographic processes have been disturbed on those Ukrainian territories which have undergone occupation as a result of Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine. However, in order to rebuild such territories, local authorities need information on the prospects of demographic situation. Therefore, determining possible information sources and choosing models to forecast demographic indicators for local communities is relevant. The purpose of this work is identifying possible information sources and choosing models to predict demographic indicators for local communities; forecasting of population numbers, birth rate and mortality via splines for Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast communities. Novelty: forecasting of demographic indicators for local communities via spline functions. It has been shown that retrospective demographic research at local communities level is possible, if the communities’ contemporary borders correspond to the past administrative and territorial division. However, there are certain limitations regarding the indicators set. The analysis of 1979-2020 data on population numbers, birth rate and mortality for Ivankivsky and Polisky local communities has shown that the 1986-1988 data cannot be used for forecasting, since it varies considerably. This has been caused by the evacuation of residents from Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and administrative and territorial changes. The usage of spline functions in forecasting has shown that splines which have 5-7 knots are optimal. The most adequate forecasts of population numbers can be obtained via cubic splines, whereas the most trustworthy forecasts of birth rate and mortality – via linear continuous splines. It has been determined that the last years’ trends in population numbers, birth rate and mortality would continue in Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast local communities during 2021-2024. Due to hostilities on the territory of the district, there is no true data on demographic situation, and actual data may turn out to be far from the forecasted because of families with children emigration and mortality growth. Further research to improve the methodology of demographic forecasting by taking into account accidents that cause unfavorable demographic consequences is necessary.

GROWTH OF THE POPULATION OF SURKHONDARYO REGION IN RECENT YEARS

This article provides necessary information about the population growth, migration, birth and death rates of Surkhandarya in recent years.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on perinatal health and perinatal health inequalities in Europe

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns may adversely affect pregnancy outcomes due to disrupted healthcare provision and increased stress, anxiety and economic hardship. We assessed changes in perinatal outcomes in 2020 using population birth data in Europe. Methods 25 Countries in the Euro-Peristat Network implemented a federated analysis using routine national data. Countries generated anonymised aggregate data files using R scripts from individual-level data formatted to a common data model with 22 variables. We compared preterm birth, stillbirth, neonatal death and caesarean delivery rates in 2020 to 2015-2019 for 2 periods: full-year (FY) and pandemic (March-September [MS]). Data from October onward were not included in the MS period because potentially declining pandemic-related fertility may affect perinatal indicators. Country-specific relative risks (RR) for the periods, adjusted for linear trends, overall and by socio-economic (SES) group, were calculated and pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Results Preterm birth rates decreased slightly (pooled RR: 0.97FY [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-0.99]; 0.98MS [0.96-1.00]) in 2020. Heterogeneity was high (I2FY=85%; I2MS=70%), with 5 countries experiencing significant declines. Neonatal mortality rates were unchanged (0.97FY [0.92-1.01]) while stillbirth rates were higher (1.05FY [1.01; 1.09]; 1.10MS [1.02; 1.19]). Caesarean rates were slightly raised (1.02FY [1.00-1.03]; 1.02MS [0.99-1.04], 5 countries had significant increases). Increases for stillbirth were more pronounced in the lowest (1.08FY [0.99-1.16]) versus highest SES group (1.05 FY [0.93-1.17]). Conclusions In 2020, there was an unexpected decline in preterm birth in some countries, while increases in stillbirths and caesarean occurred in others. High country-level heterogeneity suggests that some government policies to mitigate the pandemic might have been more protective of pregnant women and newborns than others.

Continuous perinatal health monitoring and analysis in Europe based on a federated analytic approach: a proof of concept study

Abstract Background International comparisons of population indicators of maternal and newborn health are valuable for guiding health policy and practice. The Covid-19 pandemic revealed the difficulties of compiling comparable, timely data in Europe. As part of the PHIRI (Population Health Information Research Infrastructure) project, we developed a protocol to facilitate the exchange and analysis of population birth data in Europe. Methods The Euro-Peristat network, which includes experts from 31 European countries, developed a common data model and R scripts to facilitate rapid exchange of anonymised aggregate tables (https://zenodo.org/record/5148032#.YmlUttpBxPY). These tables were used to compile comparable perinatal health indicators from routine population-based sources for the years 2015 to 2020. We assessed the feasibility of this approach and the availability, quality and comparability of the data. Results Building on previous Euro-Peristat recommendations and a structured consensus process, the network defined a common data model including 22 variables for the testing phase. 17 additional variables were considered important and feasible for a second phase. 25 countries created patient-level data files. Most countries had 20 or more of the data items, whereas 1 had 18, 3 had 16 and 2 had 15 variables. Limiting factors included not having all data in a single database, most often the case for neonatal and infant mortality or vital statistics versus healthcare data, and the diversity or absence of data on socioeconomic status. Setting up the model was time consuming, but once established, running the R scripts was easy and quick (<15 min). The protocol requires the active participation of each country to ensure it is correctly applied. Conclusions We illustrated the feasibility of using a common data model with open source scripts to facilitate rapid production of data and analysis on key perinatal health indicators in European countries

Down Syndrome and its Oral Effects in Saudi Arabian Region

The most prominent congenital syndrome is Down syndrome (DS). With the greatest number of births of all chromosomal disorders, it is the most well-known reason of physical as well as intellectual impairment. A comparatively elevated incidence of Down syndrome has been discovered in Saudi Arabia. Only few papers have been undertaken thus far describing the features of face and other oral features of Saudi Down syndrome subjects. To review the available literature on Down syndrome and it's oral effects in Saudi Arabia region. Down syndrome also described as trisomy of chromosome 21. It is a genetic autosomal inherited condition i.e non-sex chromosomal disorder that affects one in six hundred to one in two thousands live births in various populations and is marked by a deficit in physical and intellectual development. Due to the comparative elevated incidence of DS in Saudi Arabia—1 in every 554 live births—DS subjects were specifically chosen for this review of literature. There are now more people with DS as a result of the lowered mortality rate and rising incidence in Saudi Arabia population. The most noticeable craniofacial features are found in DS patients, along with other distinguishing physical and systemic manifestations. Midface deficit, prognathism of mandible, depressed position of nasal bridge, slanting of eyes, folds at the epicanthic region, condition of hypotelorism in ocular area, and strabismus constitute the documented craniofacial characteristics. Muscle hypotonia also affects the perioral muscles, which results in a lowering of the mouth's angle. A comparatively elevated incidence of Down syndrome has been discovered in Saudi Arabia. Only few papers have been undertaken thus far describing the features of face and other oral features of Saudi Down syndrome subjects. It can be concluded that individuals with Down syndrome in Saudi Arabia had a significantly higher incidence of facial as well as cranial features in comparison to the normal healthy counterparts. By using the search algorithms “(Down syndrome and dental caries, periodontal diseases), “(Down syndrome and deformity within oral structures), “(Down Syndrome and problems in occlusion and Craniofacial structures).”The researcher searched the Cochrane Central Systematic Reviews Registry, ISI Web of Science, and Medline without language restriction up to July 2022. Only few papers have been undertaken thus far describing the features of face and other oral features of Saudi Down syndrome subjects. It can be concluded that individuals with Down syndrome in Saudi Arabia had a significantly higher incidence of facial as well as cranial features in comparison to the normal healthy counterparts.

Ellis-Van Creveld syndrome: a case report

Ellis-Van Creveled (EVC) syndrome, also called chondroectodermal dysplasia, is a rare genetic disorder with autosomal recessive type of inheritance with 25% risk of transmission to subsequent pregnancies. The syndrome is due to mutation of EVC1 and EVC2 genes on chromosome 4p16, characterized by acromesomalic dwarfism, bilateral postaxial polydactyly, ectodermal dysplasia affecting nails, teeth and congenital heart malformation. One third of the patients die at an early age or during infancy from cardio respiratory problems. The birth prevalence of EVC syndrome is 1/5000 live births in Amish population and 7/1,000,000 live birth in non-Amish population. There are a very few case reports in the literature. We reported a case of 14-year male presenting with typical features of this syndrome.

A Nested Case-Control Study of the Relationship between Salivary Inflammatory Mediators, Periodontal Parameters, and Preterm Birth in a Chinese Population.

Background To explore whether salivary inflammatory mediators and periodontal indices at different gestational stages can be taken as indicators of preterm birth (PTB). Methods This nested case-control study enrolled systemically healthy pregnant women at 9 to 36 weeks of gestation. Periodontal indices were measured at the enrollment date, and interleukin-1β (IL-1β), IL-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF-α), prostaglandin E2 (PGE2), and 8-hydroxy-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) in the saliva were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The birth outcome was recorded. Results PTB occurred in 26 women. A total of 104 matched women with full-term birth (FTB) were used as controls. The PTB women enrolled at 24-28 gestational weeks displayed a significantly greater bleeding index (BI), probing pocket depth (PD), PD ≥ 4 mm sites (%), saliva-TNF-α, and saliva-PGE2 (P < 0.05). BI and PGE2 in the saliva were found to be positively associated with PTB (OR = 4.79, P = 0.048, 95%CI = 1.014 to 22.628; OR = 1.07, P = 0.04, 95%CI = 1.004 to 1.135, respectively). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of BI and saliva-PGE2 were 0.82 and 0.78, respectively, and that of the combined detection was 0.91, which was larger than either marker alone, although the differences were not significant (P > 0.05). Conclusions The combination of BI and PGE2 in saliva at 24-28 gestational weeks could be a predictor of PTB in asymptomatic women. However, the results should be further explored with larger sample size.

Prenatal adherence to the Mediterranean diet decreases the risk of having a small-for-gestational-age baby, ECLIPSES study

There is little evidence regarding the role that consuming a Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) during pregnancy plays in foetal growth. We therefore examined the relationship between maternal MedDiet adherence during pregnancy and anthropometric measures and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) at birth in a Spanish population on the north-eastern Mediterranean coast of Spain. Prospective analysis involved 614 mother–newborn pairs from the ECLIPSES study. Diet during pregnancy was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire, and a relative MedDiet score (rMedDiet) was calculated. Neonatal information, including weight, length, head circumference and SGA (< 10th percentile) at birth, was recorded. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. The mean rMedDiet score was 9.8 (SD 2.1), ranging from 5 to 16 points. In the sample, 45% of the women had low (≤ 9 points), 32% had medium (10–11 points), and 22% had high (≥ 12 points) adherence to the rMedDiet. There was no association between rMedDiet and birth weight, length, head circumference or anthropometric indices (weight/length ratio and ponderal index). Pregnant women with a high rMedDiet score had a lower risk of delivering a SGA baby for weight (high vs low, OR = 0.36; 95% CI 0.16–0.79) and head circumference (high vs low, OR = 0.39; 95% CI 0.18–0.86), and a nonsignificant decrease in risk of SGA for length (high vs low, OR = 0.57; 95% CI 0.28–1.17). In conclusion, closer adherence to the MedDiet during pregnancy may have beneficial effects on foetal growth.

Multi-Trajectories of Conduct Problems, Hyperactivity/Inattention, and Peer Problems Across Childhood: Results from the Growing Up in Scotland Birth Cohort

Using a person-centred approach, this study inspected multi-trajectories of conduct problems, hyperactivity/inattention and peer problems, and associated risk factors for group membership. The sample included 3,578 children (50.8% males) from a population birth cohort in Scotland (Growing Up in Scotland). The parental version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was used when children were 4, 5, 6, 7, and 10 years old. Antecedent factors at the perinatal, child, and family levels were collected using parental reports, observation, and standardised assessments at 10, 24, and 36 months. A group-based multi-trajectory analysis was employed. Findings showed that a six-group model best fit the data. Identified groups included non-engagers, normative, decreasing externalising/low peer problems, low externalising/moderate peer problems, moderate externalising/increasing peer problems and multimorbid moderate-high chronic. Findings suggest multimorbidity between externalising behaviours and peer problems in the more elevated groups. Two common protective factors emerged across all groups: caregiver mental health and parent-infant attachment. Identified risk factors were specific to group membership. Risk factors for the most elevated group included single-parent status, social deprivation, previous neonatal intensive care unit admission, child sex, whilst children’s expressive language was a protective factor. Taken together, findings contribute to the emerging literature modelling trajectories of externalising behaviours and peer problems simultaneously and have important practical implications for prevention of problems in childhood, by identifying targets at the perinatal, child, and family levels.

A Carbon Sequestration Model for Better Forest Management and Future Environmental Protection

In recent years, with the economic development, people's demand for forest resources has increased, thus leading to a large increase in tree cutting. Forest resources have both ecological and economic values, and this paper will propose an innovative forest management model that is based on a model of forest carbon sequestration. We take a forest in the Daxinganling Mountains as an example. First, we use python to build a forest growth model, which is related to many factors including forest growth rate, mortality rate, natural harvesting rate, and distribution of populations by age. Then, based on this model, we calculate the ecological value of the forest by the carbon sequestration of the forest, and the economic value that the forest can provide to people by the carbon content of harvested trees, which is our carbon sequestration model. Finally, we use the TOPSIS analysis algorithm to determine the weights of ecological and economic benefits according to regions and to maximize the combined benefits of the forest. The innovation of this paper is to fully consider the population distribution, birth rate, and death rate of the forest, and build a forest model with a good fit for reality. Therefore, it is also possible to calculate the influence of human factors on the comprehensive benefits of the forest by changing factors such as cutting rate, so as to obtain the optimal solution of the forest management model within a certain range.

Relative Age Effect Among the Best Norwegian Track and Field Athletes of All Time: Comparisons of Explosive and Endurance Events.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the degree of relative age effect (RAE) among the best Norwegian track and field athletes of all time, aged 13 years to senior, as well as to investigate the differences between athletes in events that impose different demands on their physical characteristics, categorised in endurance and explosiveness. The degree of RAE was investigated by examining the difference between the sample’s (N = 21,711) quarterly birth distribution and the quarterly distribution of birth of the Norwegian population as a whole from 1966 to 2019. To determine whether or not an RAE was present, chi-square tests (χ2) were conducted against an even distribution, with Cramer’s V (phi or ɸ) as a measure of effect size. The study’s results show a strong RAE in the two youngest age groups in both genders. RAE decreases with increasing age, but the effect is still present at the senior level in both men and women. Furthermore, the degree of RAE was strongest in explosive events in both boys (ɸ = 0.46) and girls (ɸ = 0.30), while in endurance events it was strong in boys (ɸ = 0.38) but not in girls (ɸ = 0.13). Prominent effect of RAE in the 13- and 14-year-old classes can be explained by the fact that in the youngest age groups impose the highest relative age difference. In addition, this is an age group where there are large differences in growth spurts, physical characteristics and training experience. Elimination of RAE with increasing age may be due to the fact that after puberty inherent physical advantages as a result of the month of birth are evened out. The prominent RAE in explosive events and in boys may be due to the fact that puberty and growth spurts make boys faster, stronger and larger, while puberty and growth spurts in girls are not always beneficial for girls in track and field events. The practical significance of the results relates to athletes developmental opportunities. Irrespective of whether young track and field athletes are relatively older or younger they should be met with patience and dedication from coaches. Superficial short-term categorization of young athletes potential do more harm than good.

Low Fetal Fraction of Cell Free DNA at Non-Invasive Prenatal Screening Increases the Subsequent Risk of Preterm Birth in Uncomplicated Singleton Pregnancy.

ObjectiveTo examine the association between low fetal fraction (FF) of cell free DNA determined at non-invasive prenatal screening (NIPS) and the subsequent risk of preterm birth in uncomplicated singleton pregnancy.MethodsWe retrospectively interrogated NIPS System and hospitalization records from April 2018 to August 2019 and obtained results from 1521 consecutive and uncomplicated women with singleton pregnancy in which plasma FF of cell free DNA at NIPS had been investigated together with birth outcomes. We examined the association between FF and preterm birth (PTB) by regression analysis.ResultsThe incidence of preterm birth, low birthweight, and macrosomia in the study population was 5.06%, 2.89%, and 7.17%, respectively. FF at NIPS in the second to fourth quartiles (8.40–11.07, 11.08–13.70, and >13.70%, respectively) was associated with higher gestational age at delivery relative to the lowest quartile (<8.40%), with estimated mean increases of 0.27 weeks (95% CI: 0.05–0.49), 0.29 weeks (95% CI: 0.06–0.51), and 0.28 weeks (95% CI: 0.05–0.51), respectively (P for trend = 0.027). Low FF (< the 5th percentile) was associated with an increased risk of PTB (adjusted OR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.01–4.98, P = 0.047) compared to normal FF (≥ the 5th and ≤ the 95th percentiles). In addition, when compared to women with normal FF and body mass index (BMI) <25 at NIPS, the risk of early PTB (< 34 weeks gestation) was remarkably significantly higher among those with low FF and BMI ≥25 (adjusted OR: 6.29, 95% CI: 1.71–23.15, P = 0.006).ConclusionOur study supports the association of low FF at NIPS with PTB (especially early PTB) for uncomplicated singleton pregnancy.

Women empowerment with educational tools special references on tribal girl education in selected districts of Uttarakhand

Education is essential to the development of the society, therefore it is included in formulation of HDI as education index. HDI was developed in order to assess development of a nation considering life expectancy, education and standard of living. Education contributes to change the mentality of the people to the right direction and helps to control the increase population birth of the country by given the proper knowledge and information about the society and world. Education also enhances the empowerment among the women. The study will assist the policy makers to develop promising strategies and take measures that will minimize hindrance of SC/ST and female education and enhance the enrolment of both SC/ST and female in education.

Demographic Profile, Etiology, and Perinatal Outcome Associated With Preterm Birth in a Tertiary Hospital of Eastern India: A Retrospective Study.

BackgroundPreterm birth (PB), defined as birth occurring at less than 37 weeks of gestation, is a leading cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity in the world.ObjectivesThis study aimed to evaluate the socio-demographic characteristics and etiological factors associated with preterm birth and consequent adverse perinatal outcomes retrospectively at a tertiary care hospital. MethodsA single-centre retrospective observational study was conducted in the department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, Fakir Mohan Medical College & Hospital, Balasore, Odisha, India, from April 2019 to March 2020. Data were retrieved from the antenatal ward admission register, case files, theatre records, and neonatal care unit records and reviewed. Descriptive statistics were used to describe data. Chi-square test and student’s t-test were used to find significance of difference between variables.ResultsThe incidence of preterm birth in the study population was 5.52%. The mean gestational age of preterm deliveries was 34.39 ± 1.92 weeks. The bulk of the women hailed from a rural background and belonged to the lower socioeconomic strata. About 47.29% of the women were nulliparous and spontaneous preterm birth was noted in 70.40%. Premature rupture of membranes (PROM), anaemia, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), preeclampsia, and eclampsia were the most common adverse pregnancy conditions prevalent in these women. Preterm deliveries comprised 31.21% of all neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions. Respiratory distress syndrome, birth asphyxia, neonatal sepsis, and jaundice were the most common complications. Neonatal death occurred in 51 (9.21%) preterm infants with birth asphyxia being the commonest cause of such deaths. Maternal factors and adverse neonatal outcome variables were compared between the spontaneous and iatrogenic/medically indicated preterm birth groups. Preeclampsia, IUGR, and cesarean section were more significantly associated with the iatrogenic group.ConclusionOur study provides a general overview of the associated etiological factors and perinatal health concerns associated with preterm birth in a rural/semi-urban setting in Eastern India. The findings might provide essential data for taking steps toward the prevention and management of preterm birth from a developing country’s perspective.

Predicting growth potential in life expectancy at birth of the population in the Russian Federation based on scenario changes in socio-hygienic determinants using an artificial neural network

The article presents the result produced by predicting growth potential in life expectancy at birth (LEB) of the RF Population. The predictions are based on scenario changes in social and hygienic determinants (SHD) identified by using an artificial neural network (ANN). This research is vital given the existing social strategies aimed at improving the medical and demographic situation in the Russian Federation. These strategies stipulate achieving targets set within the major national and federal projects. We identified an optimal ANN structure based on a four-layer perceptron with two inner layers containing eight and three neurons accordingly. This structure is able to produce results at the highest determination coefficient (R2= 0.78). Differences between actual LEB levels and predicted ones obtained by using the suggested model did not exceed 1.1 % (or 0.8 years). We established that average LEB in the RF would reach 75.06 years (by 2024) provided that the demographic situation in the country recovers in the nearest future, LEB level reaches its values detected in 2018–2019, and SHD values grow to their preset levels according to the target scenario. Therefore, the detected growth potential amounts to 3.0 years (1095 days) against 2018. “Lifestyle-related determinants” produce the greatest effects on the growth potential in LEB by 2024 (461 days). We also identified effects produced by such SHD groups as “Sanitary-epidemiological welfare on a given territory” (212 days), “Social and demographic indicators” (196 days), “Economic indicators” (131 days), “Indicators related to public healthcare” (70 days). An indicator that shows “A share of population doing physical exercises or sports” is the most significant determinant producing the greatest effects on potential changes in LEB. If it grows up to 55.0 %, a potential growth in LEB amounts to 243.5 days. If we do not consider COVID-related processes and rely only on the trends that are being observed now when predicting changes in the demographic situation by 2030, we can expect a possible additional growth in LEB that equals 286 days. The developed algorithm for determining growth potential in population LEB can be used as an instrument for determining and ranking priority health risk factors.

Прогноз потенциала роста ожидаемой продолжительности жизни населения Российской Федерации на основе сценарного изменения социально-гигиенических детерминант с использованием искусственной нейронной сети

The article presents the result produced by predicting growth potential in life expectancy at birth (LEB) of the RF Population. The predictions are based on scenario changes in social and hygienic determinants (SHD) identified by using an artificial neural network (ANN). This research is vital given the existing social strategies aimed at improving the medical and demographic situation in the Russian Federation. These strategies stipulate achieving targets set within the major national and federal projects. We identified an optimal ANN structure based on a four-layer perceptron with two inner layers containing eight and three neurons accordingly. This structure is able to produce results at the highest determination coefficient (R2= 0.78). Differences between actual LEB levels and predicted ones obtained by using the suggested model did not exceed 1.1 % (or 0.8 years). We established that average LEB in the RF would reach 75.06 years (by 2024) provided that the demographic situation in the country recovers in the nearest future, LEB level reaches its values detected in 2018–2019, and SHD values grow to their preset levels according to the target scenario. Therefore, the detected growth potential amounts to 3.0 years (1095 days) against 2018. “Lifestyle-related determinants” produce the greatest effects on the growth potential in LEB by 2024 (461 days). We also identified effects produced by such SHD groups as “Sanitary-epidemiological welfare on a given territory” (212 days), “Social and demographic indicators” (196 days), “Economic indicators” (131 days), “Indicators related to public healthcare” (70 days). An indicator that shows “A share of population doing physical exercises or sports” is the most significant determinant producing the greatest effects on potential changes in LEB. If it grows up to 55.0 %, a potential growth in LEB amounts to 243.5 days. If we do not consider COVID-related processes and rely only on the trends that are being observed now when predicting changes in the demographic situation by 2030, we can expect a possible additional growth in LEB that equals 286 days. The developed algorithm for determining growth potential in population LEB can be used as an instrument for determining and ranking priority health risk factors.

IMPACT OF FEAR BEHAVIOR ON PREY POPULATION GROWTH PREY-PREDATOR INTERACTION

Experiments on the living environment of vertebrate ecosystems, it has been shown that predators have a massive influence on the demographic growth rate of prey. The proposed fear effect is a mathematical model that affects the reproductive growth rate of prey with the Holling Type I interaction model. Mathematical analysis of the prey-predator model shows that a strong anti-predator response can provide stability for prey-predator interactions. The parameter area taken will be shown for the extinction of the prey population, the balance of population survival, and the balance between the prey birth rate and the predator death rate. Numerical simulations were given to investigate the biological parameters of the population (birth rate, natural mortality of prey, and predators). Another numerical illustration that is seen is the behavior of prey which is less sensitive in considering the risk of predators with the growth rate of prey.