Population At-risk Research Articles

Dam Break Analysis of Batu Dam Using Hec-Ras

In Malaysia, dams are commonly built because they benefit the local community in several ways, especially through agricultural production and flood control. Nevertheless, an unexpected containment breach could result in the loss of life and property in a populated area downstream due to its huge potential energy reservoir. Dam break event simulations are essential for identifying and mitigating risks associated with possible dam breaches. Batu Dam has the highest percentage of the population at risk (PAR) and most likely exposed to the flood disaster due to dam break. From flood boundary maps, it was estimated that 78% of residential areas would be affected if a dam break disaster occurs. From the simulation, the maximum depth can reach up to 18 m with an estimated flow speed between 0.2 m/s – 3 m/s. At these depth and flow speed, people may lose strength and unable to control themselves in flood and would cause death and injury. Flood arrival time took 15 to 22 hours for flooding to arrive downstream with a maximum flood depth of 5.07 m at Persiaran Jasa Utama and the highest depth of 12.62 m at Kampung Baru Batu Caves with flood velocity between 1.60 m/s to 1.46m/s. Analysis and simulation of embankment dam breach events and the resulting floods are crucial for distinguishing and mitigating dangers from potential dam failures. Accurate forecast of inundation levels and the time of flood wave arrival at downstream key places is required for the development of effective emergency response plans.

Gold(I) ion and the phosphine ligand are necessary for the anti-Toxoplasma gondii activity of auranofin.

Auranofin, an FDA-approved drug for rheumatoid arthritis, has emerged as a promising antiparasitic medication in recent years. The gold(I) ion in auranofin is postulated to be responsible for its antiparasitic activity. Notably, aurothiomalate and aurothioglucose also contain gold(I), and, like auranofin, they were previously used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. Whether they have antiparasitic activity remains to be elucidated. Herein, we demonstrated that auranofin and similar derivatives, but not aurothiomalate and aurothioglucose, inhibited the growth of Toxoplasma gondii in vitro. We found that auranofin affected the T. gondii biological cycle (lytic cycle) by inhibiting T. gondii's invasion and triggering its egress from the host cell. However, auranofin could not prevent parasite replication once T. gondii resided within the host. Auranofin treatment induced apoptosis in T. gondii parasites, as demonstrated by its reduced size and elevated phosphatidylserine externalization (PS). Notably, the gold from auranofin enters the cytoplasm of T. gondii, as demonstrated by scanning transmission electron microscopy-energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (STEM-EDS) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS).IMPORTANCEToxoplasmosis, caused by Toxoplasma gondii, is a devastating disease affecting the brain and the eyes, frequently affecting immunocompromised individuals. Approximately 60 million people in the United States are already infected with T. gondii, representing a population at-risk of developing toxoplasmosis. Recent advances in treating cancer, autoimmune diseases, and organ transplants have contributed to this at-risk population's exponential growth. Paradoxically, treatments for toxoplasmosis have remained the same for more than 60 years, relying on medications well-known for their bone marrow toxicity and allergic reactions. Discovering new therapies is a priority, and repurposing FDA-approved drugs is an alternative approach to speed up drug discovery. Herein, we report the effect of auranofin, an FDA-approved drug, on the biological cycle of T. gondii and how both the phosphine ligand and the gold molecule determine the anti-parasitic activity of auranofin and other gold compounds. Our studies would contribute to the pipeline of candidate anti-T. gondii agents.

Screening and Targeting Risk Factors for Prodromal Synucleinopathy: Taking Steps toward a Prescriptive Multi-modal Framework.

As the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) grows, so too does the population at-risk of developing PD, those in the so-called prodromal period. This period can span from those experiencing subtle motor deficits yet not meeting full diagnostic criteria or those with physiologic markers of disease alone. Several disease-modifying therapies have failed to show a neuroprotective effect. A common criticism is that neurodegeneration, even in the early motor stages, has advanced too far for neuro-restoration-based interventions to be effective. Therefore, identifying this early population is essential. Once identified, these patients could then potentially benefit from sweeping lifestyle modifications to alter their disease trajectory. Herein, we review the literature on risk factors for, and prodromal symptoms of, PD with an emphasis on ones which may be modifiable in the earliest possible stages. We propose a process for identifying this population and speculate on some strategies which may modulate disease trajectory. Ultimately, this proposal warrants prospective studies.

TOP-054 - Health-related quality of life in a population at-risk of NAFLD or ArLD

TOP-054 - Health-related quality of life in a population at-risk of NAFLD or ArLD

Polyphenol supplementation and executive functioning in overweight and obese adults at risk of cognitive impairment: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Increasing evidence indicates a link between obesity and cognitive impairment. Furthermore, there is limited literature regarding the effect of polyphenols, a plant derived compounds, on executive functioning in an overweight/obese population at-risk of cognitive impairment. The aim of the present systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials is to examine the effect of polyphenol supplementation on executive functions in overweight and/or obese populations at risk of cognitive impairment. A comprehensive literature search was conducted from inception to March 2023 using four electronic databases: PubMed/Medline, PsycInfo, Scopus and Cochrane trials library. Published primary research studies in English that compared the effect of polyphenols with placebo on executive function in overweight/obese adults were considered eligible for the meta-analysis. Jadad scale was used for the methodological quality rating of the included studies. Hedges g with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for endpoints were calculated using random effect model where applicable. Rosenthal's Fail-safe N, funnel plots, the Begg and Mazumdar's rank correlation test (Kendall's S statistic P-Q), Egger's linear regression test, and Duval and Tweedie's trim-and-fill test were identified for potential use as appropriate, to examine publication bias. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the robustness of the results. A total of 23 RCT studies involving N = 1,976 participants were included in the review. The results of the meta-analysis revealed a non-significant effect for polyphenol supplementation on executive function (g = 0.076, CI = -0.018 to 0.170). Observations from primary studies within the meta-analysis showed a potential positive effect of polyphenol supplementation in a younger population at-risk of cognitive impairment and it is recommended to investigate this further in future studies. Moreover, the variability of the tasks used to examine executive functions as well as the adequate reporting of supplement's phenolic composition is a limitation that future work should also consider.

European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios

West Nile virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne zoonosis, has emerged as a disease of public health concern in Europe. Recent outbreaks have been attributed to suitable climatic conditions for its vectors favoring transmission. However, to date, projections of the risk for WNV expansion under climate change scenarios is lacking. Here, we estimate the WNV-outbreaks risk for a set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We delineate the potential risk-areas and estimate the growth in the population at risk (PAR).We used supervised machine learning classifier, XGBoost, to estimate the WNV-outbreak risk using an ensemble climate model and multi-scenario approach. The model was trained by collating climatic, socioeconomic, and reported WNV-infections data (2010−22) and the out-of-sample results (1950–2009, 2023–99) were validated using a novel Confidence-Based Performance Estimation (CBPE) method. Projections of area specific outbreak risk trends, and corresponding population at risk were estimated and compared across scenarios.Our results show up to 5-fold increase in West Nile virus (WNV) risk for 2040-60 in Europe, depending on geographical region and climate scenario, compared to 2000-20. The proportion of disease-reported European land areas could increase from 15% to 23-30%, putting 161 to 244 million people at risk. Across scenarios, Western Europe appears to be facing the largest increase in the outbreak risk of WNV. The increase in the risk is not linear but undergoes periods of sharp changes governed by climatic thresholds associated with ideal conditions for WNV vectors. The increased risk will require a targeted public health response to manage the expansion of WNV with climate change in Europe.

SOCIAL RELATIONSHIPS AND COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT IN LATER LIFE

Abstract With population aging and the growing population at-risk of cognitive impairment, Alzheimer’s disease, and related dementias, there is a need for a better understanding of how social factors may affect cognitive impairment. Drawing from stress process theory and social integration theory, we examine the impact of positive and negative dimensions of relationship quality with friends and family on cognitive impairment in later life. We analyze Cox proportional hazards models using nationally representative panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (2006-2016, N=10,626) to examine how the quality of family and friend relationships in adulthood may influence risk of cognitive impairment. Strain with family members and with friends was significantly related to higher risk of cognitive impairment (Hazard Ratio: 1.15 [95% CI: 1.08, 1.21] and 1.20 [95% CI: 1.13, 1.28], respectively). Support from family members was beneficial, related to lower risk of cognitive impairment (HR: 0.93, CI: .89, .99); however, support from friends was related to higher risk of cognitive impairment (HR: 1.10, CI: 1.05, 1.14). Findings reveal the implications of social support and strain in different types of relationships for cognitive health.

Estimating loss of life caused by dam breaches based on the simulation of floods routing and evacuation potential of population at risk

• Loss of life is sensitive to hydrodynamic factors and evacuation potential. • Evacuation potential of population at risk was simulated. • Specific measures were proposed to reduce loss of life through effective refuge. Dam breaches often have catastrophic consequences in downstream areas. Hydrodynamic factors and the evacuation potential of the population at risk ( PAR ) have significant impacts on the loss of life ( LOL ) caused by dam breaches. However, the existing comprehensive evaluation models have not conducted in-depth research on the evacuation potential of populations. Thus, limited guidance is available for relevant departments to formulate emergency plans to reduce the potential LOL . Therefore, a new comprehensive evaluation model was proposed in this study. According to the relevant references and disaster theory, the main influencing factors and the process through which the LOL is caused by dam breaches were determined. The specific occurrence process was divided into six stages: a dam breach causes flood, the flood puts the PAR , the PAR complete the preparation work, the PAR evacuate, the un-evacuated population shelter themselves inside buildings, and flood causes the death of the exposed population. To calculate the LOL , the parameters relevant at each stage were defined. Furthermore, the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System, Geographic Information System, and related materials were used to simulate the flood routing and evacuation potential of the PAR , quantifying the parameters in the model. The model was applied to 14 towns in the downstream areas of the Luhun Reservoir in Henan Province, China, and its accuracy was verified by comparing the results obtained from the two existing models. In addition, the specific suggestions for reducing the potential LOL were proposed based on the results of the simulation.

THU228 - A model to predict drinking population at-risk of liver disease in France: a tool for decision-making public health policies

THU228 - A model to predict drinking population at-risk of liver disease in France: a tool for decision-making public health policies

Hepatitis C antibody testing among opioid agonist therapy recipients, Victoria, Australia, 2012 to 2020

The high burden of hepatitis C among people who inject drugs in Australia underscores the need to increase testing within this population. Understanding hepatitis C screening uptake in primary care settings is therefore critical to the development of effective and targeted strategies to improve hepatitis C testing for people who inject drugs. Primary care services that prescribe OAT are well-positioned to provide hepatitis C testing among a priority population at-risk of hepatitis C. This study used linked data from 5,429 individuals attending ten clinical services participating in the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance (ACCESS) who received their first recorded OAT prescription between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2019. We estimated the proportion of OAT recipients who received a hepatitis C antibody test within 12 months of their first recorded OAT prescription, and the proportion of individuals tested who received a positive hepatitis C antibody test. Approximately one in five individuals (17%) received a hepatitis C antibody test in the 12 months following their first recorded OAT prescription. Over half of individuals tested (56%) received a positive hepatitis C antibody test result. Hepatitis C antibody testing was higher among individuals who attended 5-8 (aOR:2.98; 95%CI:2.41-3.69) and 9+ (aOR:6.17; 95%CI:5.13-7.43) clinical consultations, were women (aOR:1.20; 95%CI:1.08-1.34) and whose first recorded OAT prescription occurred in 2017 vs. 2012 (aOR:1.39; 95%CI:1.06-1.84). Hepatitis C antibody testing was lower among individuals prescribed methadone (aOR:0.81; 95%CI:0.73-0.91), and individuals aged 60+ years vs. 18-29 years (aOR:0.67; 95%CI:0.48-0.94). Despite high positivity rates, hepatitis C antibody testing among individuals prescribed OAT remains low. There are opportunities for increased testing among populations exhibiting greater proportions of missed testing opportunities. Integrating routine hepatitis C screening in OAT settings will likely increase case-finding and contribute to Australia's hepatitis C elimination targets.

Estimating the population at-risk of homelessness in small areas, 2016

Estimating the population at-risk of homelessness in small areas, 2016

Optimising passive surveillance of a neglected tropical disease in the era of elimination: A modelling study.

BackgroundSurveillance is an essential component of global programs to eliminate infectious diseases and avert epidemics of (re-)emerging diseases. As the numbers of cases decline, costs of treatment and control diminish but those for surveillance remain high even after the ‘last’ case. Reducing surveillance may risk missing persistent or (re-)emerging foci of disease. Here, we use a simulation-based approach to determine the minimal number of passive surveillance sites required to ensure maximum coverage of a population at-risk (PAR) of an infectious disease.Methodology and principal findingsFor this study, we use Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) in north-western Uganda, a neglected tropical disease (NTD) which has been reduced to historically low levels (<1000 cases/year globally), as an example. To quantify travel time to diagnostic facilities, a proxy for surveillance coverage, we produced a high spatial-resolution resistance surface and performed cost-distance analyses. We simulated travel time for the PAR with different numbers (1–170) and locations (170,000 total placement combinations) of diagnostic facilities, quantifying the percentage of the PAR within 1h and 5h travel of the facilities, as per in-country targets. Our simulations indicate that a 70% reduction (51/170) in diagnostic centres still exceeded minimal targets of coverage even for remote populations, with >95% of a total PAR of ~3million individuals living ≤1h from a diagnostic centre, and we demonstrate an approach to best place these facilities, informing a minimal impact scale back.ConclusionsOur results highlight that surveillance of g-HAT in north-western Uganda can be scaled back without substantially reducing coverage of the PAR. The methodology described can contribute to cost-effective and equable strategies for the surveillance of NTDs and other infectious diseases approaching elimination or (re-)emergence.

Self-clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease.

Background: it is widely assumed that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, there is substantial evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection can occur. We infer a curve of self-clearance by time since infection and explore its implications for TB epidemiology. Methods and findings: data for self-clearance were inferred using post-mortem and tuberculin-skin-test reversion studies. A cohort model allowing for self-clearance was fitted in a Bayesian framework before estimating the lifetime risk of TB disease and the population infected with Mtb in India, China and Japan in 2019. We estimated that 24.4% (17.8-32.6%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI)) of individuals self-clear within 10 years of infection, and 73.1% (64.6-81.7%) over a lifetime. The lifetime risk of TB disease was 17.0% (10.9-22.5%), compared to 12.6% (10.1-15.0%) assuming lifelong infection. The population at risk of TB disease in India, China and Japan was 35-80% (95% UI) smaller in the self-clearance scenario. Conclusions: the population with a viable Mtb infection may be markedly smaller than generally assumed, with such individuals at greater risk of TB disease. The ability to identify these individuals could dramatically improve the targeting of preventive programmes and inform TB vaccine development, bringing TB elimination within reach of feasibility.

Prescribing in the prehospital environment: a review of the pharmaceutical Module 501 on UK Military Exercise SAIF SAREEA 3. Can such analysis assist with the scaling of healthcare assets?

IntroductionModule 501 provides core medications which are fundamental to the capability of a prehospital treatment team (PHTT). The quantities of each medication in the module inventory undergo regular review, but...

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

Dam breach has catastrophic consequences for human lives and economy. In previous studies, empirical models are often, to a limited extent, due to the inadequacy of historical dam breach events. Physical models, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods, are not suitable for fast analysis of a large number of dams due to the complexities of many key parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for fast evaluation of potential consequences of dam breach. Eight main indices, i.e., capacity of reservoir (CR), dam height (HD), population at risk (PR), economy at risk (ER), understanding of dam breach (UB), industry type (TI), warning time (TW), and building vulnerability (VB), are selected to establish an evaluation index system. A catastrophe evaluation method is introduced to establish an evaluation model for potential consequences of dam breach based on the indices which are divided into five grades according to the relevant standards and guidelines. Validation of the method by twelve historical dam breach events shows a good accuracy. The method is applied to evaluate potential consequences of dam breach of Jiangang Reservoir in Henan Province, China. It is estimated that loss of life in the worst scenario is between that of Hengjiang Reservoir and that of Shimantan Reservoir dam breach, of which fatalities are 941 and 2717, respectively, showing that risk management measures should be taken to reduce the risk of potential loss of life.

Transient elastography for screening of liver fibrosis: Cost-effectiveness analysis from six prospective cohorts in Europe and Asia

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease pose an important challenge to current clinical healthcare pathways because of the large number of at-risk patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of transient elastography (TE) as a screening method to detect liver fibrosis in a primary care pathway. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using real-life individual patient data from 6 independent prospective cohorts (5 from Europe and 1 from Asia). A diagnostic algorithm with conditional inference trees was developed to explore the relationships between liver stiffness, socio-demographics, comorbidities, and hepatic fibrosis, the latter assessed by fibrosis scores (FIB-4, NFS) and liver biopsies in a subset of 352 patients. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness of a screening strategy against standard of care alongside the numbers needed to screen to diagnose a patient with fibrosis stage ≥F2. The data set encompassed 6,295 participants (mean age 55 ± 12 years, BMI 27 ± 5 kg/m2, liver stiffness 5.6 ± 5.0 kPa). A 9.1 kPa TE cut-off provided the best accuracy for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (≥F2) in general population settings, whereas a threshold of 9.5 kPa was optimal for populations at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease. TE with the proposed cut-offs outperformed fibrosis scores in terms of accuracy. Screening with TE was cost-effective with mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from 2,570 €/QALY (95% CI 2,456-2,683) for a population at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease (age ≥45 years) to 6,217 €/QALY (95% CI 5,832-6,601) in the general population. Overall, there was a 12% chance of TE screening being cost saving across countries and populations. Screening for liver fibrosis with TE in primary care is a cost-effective intervention for European and Asian populations and may even be cost saving. The lack of optimized public health screening strategies for the detection of liver fibrosis in adults without known liver disease presents a major healthcare challenge. Analyses from 6 independent international cohorts, with transient elastography measurements, show that a community-based risk-stratification strategy for alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases is cost-effective and potentially cost saving for our healthcare systems, as it leads to earlier identification of patients.

PERIPHERAL AND CENTRAL INFLAMMATION ASSOCIATE WITH PHOSPHO-TAU IN A POPULATION AT RISK FOR ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE

PERIPHERAL AND CENTRAL INFLAMMATION ASSOCIATE WITH PHOSPHO-TAU IN A POPULATION AT RISK FOR ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE

Emerging role of the Australian private health insurance sector in providing chronic disease management programs: current activities, challenges and constraints.

Objective This study explored the current activities of a sample of Australian private health insurance (PHI) funds to support the care of people living with chronic conditions, following changes to PHI legislation in 2007 permitting funds to cover a broader range of chronic disease management (CDM) services. Methods A qualitative research design was used to gather perspectives from PHI sector representatives via semistructured interviews with eight participants. The interview data were analysed systematically using the framework analysis method. Results Three main types of activities were most commonly identified: (1) healthcare navigation; (2) structured disease management and health coaching programs; and (3) care coordination services. These activities were primarily conducted via telephone by a combination of in-house and third-party health professionals. PHI funds seem to be taking a pragmatic approach to the type of CDM activities currently offered, guided by available data and identified member need. Activities are focused on people with diagnosed chronic conditions exiting hospital, rather than the broader population at-risk of developing a chronic condition. Conclusions Despite legislation permitting PHI funds to pay benefits for CDM services being in place for more than 10 years, insurers are still in an early stage of implementation and evaluation of CDM activities. Primarily due to the regulated scope of PHI coverage in Australia, participants reported several challenges in providing CDM services, including identifying target groups, evaluating service outcomes and collaborating with other healthcare providers. The effectiveness of the approach of PHI funds to CDM in terms of the groups targeted and outcomes of services provided still needs to be established because evidence suggests that population-level interventions that target a larger number of people with lower levels of risks are likely to have greater benefit than targeting a small number of high-risk cases. What is known about the topic? Since 2007, PHI funds in Australia have been able to pay benefits for a range of out-of-hospital services, focused on CDM. Although a small number of program evaluations has been published, there is little information on the scope of activities and the factors influencing the design and implementation of CDM programs. What does this paper add? This paper presents the findings of a qualitative study reporting on the CDM activities offered by a sample of PHI funds, their approach to delivery and the challenges and constraints in designing and implementing CDM activities, given the PHI sector's role as a supplementary health insurer in the Australian health system. What are the implications for practitioners? Current CDM activities offered by insurers focus on health navigation advice, structured, time-limited CDM programs and care coordination services for people following a hospital admission. There is currently little integration of these programs with the care provided by other health professionals for a person accessing these services. Although the role of insurers is currently small, the movement of insurers into service provision raises considerations for managing potential conflicts in having a dual role as an insurer and provider, including the effectiveness and value of services offered, and how these programs complement other types of health care being received.

An economic model of advance care planning in Australia: a cost-effective way to respect patient choice

BackgroundAdvance care planning (ACP) is a process of planning for future health and personal care. A person’s values and preferences are made known so that they can guide decision making at a future time when that person cannot make or communicate his or her decisions. This is particularly relevant for people with dementia because their ability to make decisions progressively deteriorates over time. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of delivering a nationwide ACP program within the Australian primary care setting.MethodsA decision analytic model was developed to identify the costs and outcomes of an ACP program for people aged 65+ years who were at risk of developing dementia. Inputs for the model was sourced and estimated from the literature. The reliability of the results was thoroughly tested in sensitivity analyses.ResultsThe results showed that, compared to usual care, a nationwide ACP program for people aged 65+ years who were at risk of dementia would be cost-effective. However, the results only hold if ACP completion is higher than 50% and adherence to ACP wishes is above 75%.ConclusionsA nationwide ACP program in the primary care setting is a cost-effective or cost-saving intervention compared to usual care in a population at-risk of developing dementia. Cost savings are generated from providing treatment and care that is consistent with patient preferences, resulting in fewer hospitalisations and less-intensive care at end-of-life.

Virtually optimized insoles for offloading the diabetic foot: A randomized crossover study

Integration of objective biomechanical measures of foot function into the design process for insoles has been shown to provide enhanced plantar tissue protection for individuals at-risk of plantar ulceration. The use of virtual simulations utilizing numerical modeling techniques offers a potential approach to further optimize these devices. In a patient population at-risk of foot ulceration, we aimed to compare the pressure offloading performance of insoles that were optimized via numerical simulation techniques against shape-based devices. Twenty participants with diabetes and at-risk feet were enrolled in this study. Three pairs of personalized insoles: one based on shape data and subsequently manufactured via direct milling; and two were based on a design derived from shape, pressure, and ultrasound data which underwent a finite element analysis-based virtual optimization procedure. For the latter set of insole designs, one pair was manufactured via direct milling, and a second pair was manufactured through 3D printing. The offloading performance of the insoles was analyzed for forefoot regions identified as having elevated plantar pressures. In 88% of the regions of interest, the use of virtually optimized insoles resulted in lower peak plantar pressures compared to the shape-based devices. Overall, the virtually optimized insoles significantly reduced peak pressures by a mean of 41.3kPa (p<0.001, 95% CI [31.1, 51.5]) for milled and 40.5kPa (p<0.001, 95% CI [26.4, 54.5]) for printed devices compared to shape-based insoles. The integration of virtual optimization into the insole design process resulted in improved offloading performance compared to standard, shape-based devices.Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN19805071, www.ISRCTN.org.