Public Opinion Research Articles

Роль резильєнтного потенціалу громадських організацій у відновленні територіальних громад України

The relevance of the research on the resilient potential of public organizations in Ukraine is determined by the need to increase the regenerative capabilities of territorial communities within a limited time frame and with restricted resource suport. The purpose of the article is substantiating the resilient potential of public organizations as an effective tool for increasing the adaptive capacity and self-organization of public community, mitigating the destructive consequences and accelerating recovery of territorial communities during the Russo-Ukrainian war and in post-war period. The novelty of the article consists in identifying the impact of public organizations on the resilient recovery of territorial communities in the conditions of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The research was carried out using the systems approach method, techniques of abstraction and generalization, functional and comparative analysis, statistical methods and data analysis, graphic method. The influence of public organizations on the resilience of territorial communities was analyzed by means of correlation-regression analysis. Three indicators of the resilient potential of territorial communities of the country were selected according to the criterion of significance and the existence of a cause-and-effect relationship. Namely: profitability of local budgets per person, cash income of households, the size of informally employed population as a sign of the shadow economy. The main functions of public organizations in ensuring the resilience of territorial communities have been disclosed. It is substantiated that the most effective tools for the influence of public organizations on ensuring the resilience of communities in the conditions of the war and post-war period are active means (promotion of citizens’ mobility, formation of public opinion, public control) and segmental tools (influence on certain population groups, infrastructure objects, territories etc.) with a fixed effect (legal assistance to internally displaced persons, reconstruction of the destroyed property and healthcare facilities, improvement of epidemic living conditions, ensuring the operation of a humanitarian center, collection of necessary information).

Sentiment Analysis of the MK Decision Trial of the Result of the 2024 President and Vice President General Election on Social Media X Using the Support Vector Machine Method

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a method of machine learning often used in classification and regression issues, especially in the classification of commentary reviews on social media such as Twitter. The Constitutional Court (MK) has the authority to resolve disputes resulting from the general election, including the 2024 presidential election. As an institution that maintains fairness and transparency in the democratic process, the Constitutional Court's decisions are often at the center of public attention and debate, especially on social media. In the 2024 general election, various allegations of fraud led to protests from several parties who felt aggrieved. The final and binding Constitutional Court's decision is expected to resolve the conflict that arises, but it often does not satisfy all parties, causing political and social tensions. This conflict can be reflected through public opinion expressed on social media, such as Twitter, where various responses and sentiments to the decision are essential analysis materials. This Research uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm with a dataset of 1383 review comments divided by an 80:20 ratio for training and testing. The system was implemented using the Python programming language, with evaluations showing the highest accuracy at 61.00%, precision at 61.00%, and recall at 62.00%. This study aims to analyze public sentiment regarding the Constitutional Court's decision using the SVM method and identify the tendency of public opinion as positive, negative, or neutral. Through this study, it is expected that a deeper understanding of the public's perception of the Constitutional Court's decision is obtained. In addition, this Research is likely to contribute to developing sentiment analysis methods in the future and provide a basis for recommendations for the Constitutional Court in handling election result disputes better.

Conflicts and competing interests in infrastructure development: A case of N2 toll road project, wild coast, South Africa

The Wild Coast region in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, is arguably the least developed area, primarily due to its historical marginalisation caused by Apartheid. To counter this underdevelopment, the current government of South Africa plans to implement a 550 km N2 Toll Road Project to link East London in the Eastern Cape with Durban in KwaZulu-Natal. The government envisions that the project will lead to spatial development through improved accessibility to resources. However, it has been criticised by many, including local communities and environmental advocacy groups, who contend that it will result in socio-ecological disasters and conflicts. Against this backdrop, this study explored the differing views and conflicts among stakeholders affected by the N2 Toll Road Project. A qualitative research approach was adopted, involving in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) with government officials, local communities, business communities, and environmental advocacy groups. The findings indicate that the N2 Toll Road Project has generated significant controversy, with public opinion sharply divided between those who believe the road will have predominantly positive impacts and those who contend that its effects will be overwhelmingly negative. Concerns regarding the disruption of livelihoods, loss of land, destruction of socio-cultural heritage, and lack of consultation emerged as key sources of conflict among stakeholders. The study recommends the use of inclusive consultation processes and mitigation strategies to minimise conflicting ideologies among stakeholders.

Public opinion alone won't save democracy.

New research offers public-focused solutions, but elites and institutions cannot be ignored.

What’s in a Cue? Decoding Political Values in Applauded Statements From Ukraine’s Leading Political Talk Shows

Experimental studies show that public opinion cues shape people’s perceptions of public opinion. However, the full extent of political information these cues comprise and, consequently, communicate remains unexplored. This study utilizes standardized content analysis to examine the political values in applauded statements ( n = 1,722) from Ukraine’s major political talk shows. The results suggest that applauded statements embody a complex mix of identity- and governance-oriented values, signaling to the broader audience the preferred type of political debate among those within the studio. The study enhances the literature on public opinion cues by demonstrating the significance of analyzing their underlying content.

Challenges of Collaborative Government Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Study of Factors and Cases in the United States

This study examines challenges of collaborative government response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The study provides a review of theoretical issues about collaboration in disaster management and public health to identify influential factors, such as governance structure, effective leadership, public communication, and political polarization, to the collaboration. Based on the document analysis method, the study examines practical cases, academic studies and public opinion data that are related to these challenging factors. The study concludes with discussions about lessons of the COVID pandemic challenge and suggestions for future studies of collaborative governance response to public crises.

Optimization Study of New Media Operation on Enterprise Application Strategy

With the rapid development of Internet technology and the popularization of smart devices, new media platforms have become an important channel for modern information dissemination. This study will focus on the optimization measures of new media operations on the application strategies of enterprises and will focus on how most enterprises can increase market penetration and user interaction through new media platforms and study the impact of this change on the marketing efficiency and cost of enterprises. This research adopts a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis to examine the actual effects and ROI of new media marketing campaigns by analyzing big data. Meanwhile, the successful marketing strategies of platforms such as TikTok are analyzed in-depth through case study methodology, exploring the data-driven mechanism and user behavior analysis behind them. According to research, new media marketing has high cost-effectiveness compared to traditional marketing means. It is not difficult to conclude that new media provide powerful marketing tools for enterprises, enabling them to achieve efficient market penetration at lower costs. However, enterprises also need to face the challenges of fast content updating and the risk of online public opinion, and a high degree of freedom of expression is one of the drawbacks of new media platforms. Therefore, enterprises in the future should pay more attention to the flexibility and innovation of new media strategies, and constantly adjust and optimize their marketing strategies to adapt to the fast-changing market environment and Internet environment.

A critical cognitive analysis of Japan’s nuclear contaminated water discharge discourse

This research investigates the use of compound image schemas in the discourse surrounding Japan’s nuclear wastewater discharge. By analyzing editorials from Asahi Shimbun, this study reveals how discourse producers, from government bodies to media outlets, employ image schemas to navigate, shape, and legitimize their stances on this contentious issue. The investigation identifies the prevalent use of PATH and CONTAINER schemas, facilitating the construction of complex narrative spaces that define “in-group” and “out-group” dynamics, thereby guiding public perception and discourse participation towards an implicit endorsement of specific policy directions. The findings highlight the dynamic interplay between micro-level discourse strategies and macro-level cognitive frameworks, projecting tailored narratives into the public sphere. This projection, rooted in sophisticated cognitive mechanisms, illustrates the strategic use of discourse to influence public opinion and legitimize environmental policy decisions, reflecting broader social implications and the power of discourse in shaping environmental risk perceptions.

Tribute VS "Nanman": The Image Construction of "Magic Mirror Type"

For over 2000 years, feudal dynasties throughout China have referred to southerners as the “Nanman” (means Southern Barbarian). However, the specific situation of the treatment of Nanman titles by various dynasties has not been explored. In addition, the Nanman never stopped paying tribute to the Central Dynasty. No one is involved in whether tribute can earn the respect that the dynasty deserves. Nowadays, big data technology can easily handle massive amounts of literature, and it is entirely possible to analyze the above issues from "official histories" (the 25 historical books) using the method of word frequency research. The words frequency shows that since the unification of Lingnan by Emperor Qin Shi Huang, the feudal dynasties presented a paradox to Lingnan: The products in Lingnan were coveted, and local customs were despised. "Tribute" was used to cover up the predatory nature of Kings, and "Nanman" was used to establish political, national and cultural rank. The number of "tribute" and the meaning of "Nanman" formed the "magic mirror" development relationship in the big tree of feudal autocracy until the end of the Qing Dynasty. But on the one hand, the positive factors of "tribute" were absorbed and used by the western powers to establish their own alliances. On the other hand, they also mislead the public opinion and create trouble. Although "Nanman" has been eradicated politically, the regional discrimination and cultural misreading it contains have not been eradicated and often occurs. "Tribute" ranges from Kyushu to overseas to international relations. The connotation of "Nanman" from the orientation, nation and culture, the meaning of these two words has been spontaneously changing. It is timely to clarify their relationship and help make China revive.

Crafting Cross-Border Connections: Religion and Perceptions of Erdoğan in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract This study examines how religion influences public opinion about foreign leaders, focusing on attitudes toward Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a pivotal figure in mena. Through the lens of image theory and Arab public opinion research, it offers fresh perspectives on the complex interaction between religion, understood as a multidimensional concept, and public sentiment. The empirical analysis of Gallup and Arab Barometer surveys reveals meaningful effects of piety, sectarianism, and Islamist ideology on perceptions of Erdoğan. Particularly, Erdoğan’s portrayal as a devout Sunni leader and a staunch Islamist strongly resonates among ordinary Arab citizens. While opposition to normalization with Israel engender support for Erdoğan, anti-Americanism does not exert a meaningful effect relative to religious considerations. This study underscores the role of the secular-Islamist divide, piety, and sectarianism in shaping perceptions of foreign leaders, calling for further scholarly inquiry into the nexus of religion, international politics, and public opinion in mena.

The Pictorial Turn and Visual Rhetoric: Analyzing Image Agency and Persuasion in Contemporary Media

In a time where the role of the image within academic and cultural contexts is undergoing a paradigm shift, especially since the notion of the pictorial turn proposed by the American art historian W J T Mitchell, the following paper will argue that the image is not only a passive representation, but has also become an active force in the construction of social realities, public opinion and the formation of subjectivity. The theory of image agency by Mitchell will be discussed in order to explain how images in political propaganda, social movements and advertising are used to either reaffirm or challenge hegemonic decisions. Examples such as the poster Rosie the Riveter and the advertisement If Youre Not Fast, Youre Food by Timberland will be used to illustrate the persuasive power of the image in modern communication. The proliferation of digital platforms such as Instagram or TikTok, which support a predominantly visual mode of communication, will be discussed in order to demonstrate how images come with an expanded force of impact. In this manner, the conclusion will underline that image studies and visual rhetoric are of utmost importance to an understanding of the contemporary information dissemination.

New Technologies in Search and Seizure

The Fourth Amendment and court cases interpreting it provide guidelines for how law enforcement should legally approach searching for and taking evidence in criminal investigations. Though it originally applied to physical intrusion by law enforcement, current—and likely future—intrusions are more virtual in nature. Law enforcement officers no longer need to walk onto someone's property to search for criminal activity because various technologies now provide similar or more in-depth information. Technological innovations have stretched the bounds of the Fourth Amendment. Although public opinion cannot answer the policy implications, it can speak to what the public reasonably expects of the police. In general, limited research demonstrates that the public has concerns about the way law enforcement officers can use technology in their investigations, but those concerns are not strong enough to decrease individuals’ technology use.

What’s on and who’s Watching? Combining People-Meter Data and Subtitle Data to Explore Television Exposure to Political News

ABSTRACT Understanding television viewing behavior is highly relevant, as it remains an important source of political news for many. Nowadays, viewers can choose between a growing diversity of formats covering political news, varying from traditional news broadcasts to late-night talk shows and satire. Yet, we have little to no information about the specific political content provided by television programs; and much less how this can be connected to viewing behavior and audience characteristics (political interest, ideology). Moving forward, using unique Dutch audience-meter data (3,672 viewers from 1,761 different households) from July 2017 to July 2018, we explore who is exposed to which (political) topic in what type of television program. We use automated content analysis to analyze the subtitles of television programs (N = 21,480). Our results indicate that situational factors, such as lead-in and lead-out effects affect news exposure. We also found that political interest does not only shape the volume but also the composition of audiences’ political information diets. Results show that higher political interest was associated with television audiences receiving a greater proportion of their news from public affairs and opinion programs. There does not appear to be any difference in patterns for political ideology; similar proportions of each type of program make up the information diets for both left and right viewers.

From ‘raise the age’ to ‘raise the awareness’: how knowledge affects public opinion of the minimum age of criminal responsibility in Western Australia

ABSTRACT The minimum age of criminal responsibility (MACR) in Western Australia is 10 years old. While the negative impacts of early contact with justice systems have been well-documented and have resulted in calls to raise the age, research had not examined the public views of MACR in Western Australia. This article presents a novel examination of the knowledge and perceptions of the MACR with a sample of the West Australian public (n = 69). Findings from the semi-structured interviews revealed low levels of knowledge about the MACR, some reacted with surprise when provided with the information. Participants’ views shifted in that they expected children knew ‘right from wrong’, however, they acknowledged discrepancies with other age-dependent social milestones and that the MACR was inconsistent with developmental maturity levels. They supported rehabilitative options unless the crime was serious and concluded the MACR needed to be assessed and applied proportionally on a case-by-case basis so that children who had offended could be held accountable. Finally, most participants supported raising the age from 10 to between 12 and 18. The study thus reaffirms the importance of increasing public awareness of the issue for the success of the ‘raise the age’ campaign in Western Australia.

Is Negative Campaigning a Response to a Dynamic Polling Environment? Evidence from Facebook and Twitter Posts by German Party Leaders in the 2021 German Federal Election

ABSTRACT Do negative campaigning strategies evolve in sync with a party leader’s position in public opinion polls? In Germany’s multi-party system, previous research during the traditional media era found that a chancellor candidate’s drop in the polls did not impact negativity. This study focuses on the dynamic campaign in the 2021 Federal Election, which is the most competitive campaign to date in the social media era as there was no incumbent chancellor candidate. The prevalence of negative campaigning by six major party leaders who made a total of n = 3580 posts on Facebook and Twitter from 1 March to Election Day on 25 September 2021 is studied here. Negative posts accounted for 7.7 per cent of total posts. Results also show that a chancellor candidate’s position in the polls matters: Front-runners are less likely to rely on negative campaigning, but as candidates drop down in the polls from being the main challenger to rank third or lower, their negative campaigning increases. During the official six-week campaign or the hot phase, the number of negative posts increases overall as Election Day approaches. Variation in the use of negative campaigning among the individual chancellor candidates is discussed as is evidence of negative campaigning prior to the hot phase.

The Role of Public Figures amidst Indonesia’s Early Social Restrictions Policy on Twitter (X): A Social Network Analysis

The Government of Indonesia implemented large-scale social restrictions (Indonesian: Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar, abbreviated as PSBB) following the first confirmed cases of COVID-19. Due to social media role in information propagation, this decision quickly became a trending topic on Twitter. This study investigates the main actors and the dynamics of these discussions surrounding PSBB. Utilizing RStudio software, tweets containing the keyword „psbb“ and the hashtag #psbb were mined as of May 6, 2020. The data were analyzed and compared with research conducted during May 2020. Key findings include the significant role of the musician Fiersa Besari in shaping discussions about social restrictions, the emergence of seven major opinion leaders, and the prominence of online news outlets like detikcom and CNN Indonesia in the conversation. Additionally, the study highlights critical commentary from actors affiliated with the Democratic Faction of the Indonesian House of Representatives regarding the government‘s social restrictions policies. These findings provide insights into the network dynamics and public opinion on social restrictions during the early social restrictions policy in Indonesia.

Hegel’s Answer to the ‘Academy’ Question: Is it Permissible to Deceive a People?

Abstract In 1780 Frederick II pushed the Prussian Academy to put forward a controversial question for a public essay contest: “Is it useful for the people to be deceived, be it by leading it into new errors or by confirming it in those which it upholds?” Although Hegel would have been too young to participate in the contest, he took two later opportunities to provide what would have been his answer. Whereas the Phenomenology of Spirit evaluates Enlightenment’s charge that religious faith is based on deception, the Philosophy of Right suggests that public opinion formation tends to lead to collective self-deception. In both versions of his answer, however, Hegel argues that it is impossible to deceive a people about its essence. In this paper I clarify what Hegel means by a people’s essence and why he thinks it impossible to deceive a people about it.

Changes in Travel Activities and Preferences in Gangwon Province, South Korea, Due to Social Distancing Measures during COVID-19

Social media data are increasingly used to assess public opinion dynamics and develop sustainable regional tourism policies. This study explored the changes in travel patterns and preferences in Gangwon Province before, during, and after the implementation of social distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Five hundred and twenty-six YouTube videos related to travel in Gangwon Province were collected using NodeXL, and content and statistical analyses were conducted on travel regions, main activities, and viewers’ reactions. The main findings indicated that as the intensity of social distancing measures increased, the activity of YouTube video creators also increased, particularly in the East Coast region, compared with other locations such as mountains, rivers, and traditional markets. Viewer engagement was the highest during the implementation of social distancing, showing a considerable interest in beach travel. These results have significant implications for planning safe travel during crises such as COVID-19 and for local governments to promote a responsible travel environment.

The moderating role of government heuristics in public preferences for redistribution

A theory of rational attitude formation suggests public perceptions that income differences are too large should lead to demands for income redistribution. Public opinion scientists irregularly observe this at best. It is possible that the instruments we use to observe support for income redistribution are ineffective. We suggest at least part of the inconsistently observed linkages are due to unobserved confounding of government heuristics. We hypothesize that government affect provides a heuristic cue for survey respondents to answer questions on their preference for the government engaging in income redistribution. The greater the valence or quantity of reasons for a survey respondent to have negative government affect, the more perceptions of inequality and support for redistribution are decoupled and apparently inconsistent. To test this, we measured government affect at the country-time level using trust, corruption perceptions, and economic performance. We executed tests of moderation using slopes-as-outcomes regressions with ISSP data from 36 countries in 102 country-time points. Given the difficulty in fitting complex theories of society and politics into a limited number of macro-comparative cases, we ran a multiverse analysis of alternatively plausible models. There is a consistent negative moderation effect across models suggesting that our theory of government affect as opinion expression on a survey is worthy of further consideration. The findings also suggest more qualitative cognitive survey interviews to better understand this process.

NATO after the invasion of Ukraine: how the shock changed alliance cohesion

AbstractFollowing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, experts predicted a NATO revival. The record on alliance cohesion, however, is mixed. Allies achieved consensus on some issues but not others. While some Alliance politics scholars and NATO experts assert that cohesion improved, new scholarship is needed to explain the nature of and changes in cohesion across NATO’s many issue areas. Leveraging organizational change scholarship, I argue that the extent to which an exogenous shock—here, the invasion of Ukraine—aligns with NATO’s mission can explain differences in cohesion on issue areas across three realms. To test the argument, I employ discourse analysis of high-level NATO documents, leader statements, relevant quotes from allied and NATO officials and public opinion polls (2010–2024). Findings reveal the importance of an alliance’s mission for the reconfiguration of cohesion after shock, and the study offers an alternative means for explaining the ebbs and flow of alliance cohesion.