Pooled Time-series Analysis Research Articles

Partisan Change in Southern Legislatures, 1946-95

What accounts for partisan change in southern legislatures between 1946 and 1995? I draw my hypotheses from general theories of partisan change and tailor them to the South based on history and previous research to explain the variance in southern Republican legislative strength. I estimate a pooled time series analysis of the eleven former Confederate states to test the path model. The model uses Democratic elite liberalism as an endogenous variable in order to determine the overall effect of several important independent variables including black population, black political influence, urbanization, white northern migration, and wealth. Determinants of state legislative partisan change include the following: secular forces such as wealth, urbanization, and migration; political forces such as presidential midterm losses, party organizational strength, and political scandal; party issue stances on race and general party ideology; changes in national party preferences that precede change at lower levels; and finally, rules governing the structure of political opportunity such as reapportionment and participation.

Party size and policy outcomes: An empirical analysis of taxation in democracies

Taxation varies widely among democracies. Yet scholars disagree whether differences in political institutions help produce the variation. This article identifies topdown and bottom-up mechanisms by which political institutions are thought to influence taxation. It then combines political and economic data on more than 50 democracies to evaluate the impact of political institutions on government revenues. Cross-sectional and pooled time series analyses that include controls for economic conditions and partisan ideologies of governments confirm an indirect impact of these institutions: there is a curvilinear relationship between the size of political parties in a democracy and the tax revenues collected. Yet the effect of party size on policy outcomes is limited to a subset of democracies. The article opens new paths for research on the roles of electoral, constitutional, legislative, and party institutions in democratic policy making around the world.

The Political Economy of Budget Deficits in the European Union

This article tries to evaluate the impact of domestic and international factors on both deficits and deficit reduction in the European Union. Based on data covering 14 countries and 20 fiscal years (1978-97) we test the major hypotheses in the political economy literature. Beyond the investigation of the causes of cross-sectional variations in budget outcomes, we are also interested in changing patterns of influences over time, resulting from so-called `structural breaks'. On the one hand, our pooled time-series analyses show that very few political and institutional factors influenced the budget outcomes of the EU member states during this period. On the other hand, our estimation results provide suggestive support for our assumption that `Maastricht' amounted to a decisive structural break.

Sibling Relationships Over the Life Course: A Panel Analysis

Using pooled time series analysis on approximately 9,000 individuals ages 16–85 interviewed in the 1987–1988 and 1992–1994 waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), this research examines change in 4 behavioral measures of sibling relationships—proximity, contact, giving help, and receiving help—over the life course. All four measures of sibling relationship decline significantly during early adulthood, but proximity and contact stabilize in middle age and do not decline further, whereas sibling exchange demonstrates a slight rise after approximately age 70. Life course analyses provide only modest support for a model in which siblings substitute for parents, spouses, and children. With the partial exception of proximity, measured life course changes do not explain observed age effects.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CHILD SAFETY SEAT LAWS IN THE FIFTY STATES

ABSTRACTThis study evaluates the effectiveness of state child safety seat laws in the United States. Data for all fifty states for the period 1975 to 1994 are used. Pooled time series analysis is employed to estimate a model of the rate of fatalities suffered by children ages 0–5 years as occupants in automobile crashes. The occupant fatality rate for children 6–11 years of age is used as a comparison group to control for other trends not introduced in the estimated models. The results show that child safety seat policies have significantly reduced fatality rates among children 0–5 years of age. For each additional year of age covered by a state statute, this fatality rate drops 4.8%. A similar reduction in the fatality rate of the older age cohort (6–11 years old) was not observed.

The Political Response to Black Insurgency: A Critical Test of Competing Theories of the State

Although empirical studies have concluded that political leaders in democratic systems often respond to mass unrest by expanding the welfare state, most of this research fails to explain adequately why the state responds as it does. I test the validity of pluralist and social control theories of state response by examining black insurgency in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s. Using pooled time-series analysis, I estimate the relationship between state AFDC recipient rates, state incarceration rates, and black political violence, testing a series of specific hypotheses that distinguish between these two competing theories. The results lend much support to the social control characterization of state response and may help explain trends in welfare and criminal justice policies over the last two decades.

Restructuring the health care system in british columbia: The experience of the shaughnessy hospital employees

The impact of the Shaughnessy Hospital closure on a sample of full-time health care employees (n = 59) is examined within the context of the restructuring of the British Columbia health care system. Employee concerns focused on lack of consultation, concern for patients, and their own well being. Results from a repeated measures ANOVA (pre- and post-closure) revealed that the negative emotions (e.g., anxious, distressed, angry, nervous) associated with the closure did not dissipate until a full year after the announcement of the hospital closure. A pooled time series analysis (n = 177) found that both social support and positive coping activities were associated with greater coping effectiveness, perceptions of justice, and fewer sick days. The study findings suggest that health care organizations going through closure or restructuring activities should explore interventions which improve communication, develop supervisory support, provide employee assistance or counseling, and offer training interventions which help employees to maintain a positive mental outlook.

Presidents and Defense Contracting, 1953-1992

We analyze the politics of the U.S. defense budget from 1953 to 1992. Institutional factors make it impractical for the president to use aggregate defense spending politically. For this reason, we focus on defense prime contract awards (PCA) because they are removed from public opinion, do not require congressional approval and can be precisely timed. We assess differences in contracting behavior between presidential administrations. The model we specify posits that government policies are reflective of approval ratings and that the president uses defense contracts to counter sagging approval and/or a weak economy. A statistical model is tested using pooled time-series analysis that allows us to assess variation between and within administrations. Controlling for presidential administrations, war and Soviet crisis behavior, our analysis reveals that significant differences in defense contracting exist between administrations and that presidential approval, war, the electoral cycle, and unemployment are significant determinants of defense contracting.

Clear and Clean: The Fixed Effects of the Liberal Peace

In their article in this issue, Donald P. Green, Soo Yeon Kim, and David H. Yoon claim, contrary to liberal theory and extensive evidence, that neither joint democracy nor economic interdependence significantly reduces the frequency of militarized interstate disputes in pooled time-series analyses when dyadic fixed effects are taken into account. Similarly, their fixed-effects analyses contradict theory and previous evidence that democracies have higher levels of trade with one another than do other types of states. Our reexamination, however, refutes both claims and reinforces previous findings. Their fixed-effects analyses of disputes produces distorted results because they consider a relatively short time period, 1951–92, in which variation in the binary dependent variable and the key independent variables, democracy and trade, is limited. When we analyze a longer period (1886–1992), the results confirm liberal theory. The differences between our analyses of bilateral trade and those of Green, Kim, and Yoon primarily arise from a seemingly minor methodological decision. A more reasonable method confirms that democracies do have higher levels of trade than expected on purely economic grounds. Though we do not advocate a fixed-effects model for analyzing these data and have serious reservations about its general usefulness, our findings provide additional confirmation of liberal theories of international relations.

VOTER IDEOLOGY, THE ECONOMY, AND THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES, 1952-1989

Although it is commonly assumed that voters shift on an ideological spectrum over time, there has been relatively little scientific inquiry into the reasons for shifts in voter ideology. In this article, we attempt to explain why voter ideological shifts occur utilizing an interval measure of voter ideology recently developed by Kim and Fording. A pooled time-series analysis of 13 Western democracies for the period of 1952–1989 identifies several internal and external factors causing shifts in voter ideology. With respect to domestic influences, the state of the country's national economy, primarily inflation, seems to drive movement in voter ideology in a most significant way, but we find that the direction of this relationship is dependent on the ideological disposition of the incumbent government. With respect to international influences, we find significant ideological diffusion across neighboring countries of Western democracies. The effects of ideological diffusion are strongest within countries that are small relative to their neighbors. We also find that ideology is influenced by the international political environment, especially the level of East-West tension during the Cold War.

National Politics and Resort to the European Commission on Human Rights

An interesting irony of human rights is that the nation-states that are most susceptible to claims of human rights abuses may not be the most repressive nation-states. Pursuing this modern paradox, the purpose of this research is to determine the factors affecting the number of human rights claims brought by citizens in the international arena. We base our theory on an extension of theories of state strength and test it using a pooled time-series analysis of petitions filed with the European Commission on Human Rights between 1976 and 1993. We find that polity strength, measured through government openness to political minorities and participation in nongovernmental organizations, is positively linked to claims-making. In contrast, a state's tendency to act internationally, represented through participation in international governmental organizations, had a negative effect on the number of claims to the European Commission on Human Rights. Although levels of human rights abuse were positively associated with claims, other factors relating to political organization were equally or more important.

Defense Contracting and Domnestic Politics

Scholars have investigated the relationship between defense spending and domestic political constraints. Because of a two-year time lag, however, it is difficult to make a theoretical link between the aggregate defense budget and domestic politics. We focus on defense contract awards because of their rapid turn-around. We advance the referendum model to account for variations in the timing of defense contracts within administrations. The referendum model posits that government policies are reflective of approval ratings and that the President uses defense contracts to counter sagging approval and/or a weak economy This is a subtle but important alternative to political business cycle (PBC) models which constrain political manipulation of the defense budget to the electoral cycle. An empirical model is tested using pooled time-series analysis which allows us to assess variation within administrations. The analysis reveals that presidential approval, war, presidential reelection, and unemployment are determinants of defense contracting.

Channeling frustrations: institutions, economic fluctuations, and political behavior

Abstract While the literature suggests that clear lines of responsibility lead to greater incumbent dependence on economic conditions for support, little has been said about how electorates channel frustrations in systems characterized by ‘fuzzy’ lines of responsibility, i.e., the shape and status of parliamentary government in relation to possible choice of electors open to them. The argument presented here is that fuzzy lines of responsibility result in lower incentives to participate in political processes and greater system dissatisfaction given economic circumstances. This decline is greater in systems in which incumbent responsibility is less easily identified by the individual citizen. To test this, data are collected from eight European nations over the period 1975–1992. Split sample and slope intervention models with robust estimation are employed at the individual level. System level aggregates are analyzed using pooled time–series analysis to confirm individual level findings. Finally, election turnout data are also analyzed to obtain election level verification of survey findings. Evidence suggests that participation is more heavily influenced by economic conditions in fuzzy settings. Coupled with existing literature, this suggests that while clear settings encourage punishment of the incumbent unclear settings tend to cause individuals to become more withdrawn and alienated. However, economic conditions are also important to overall system effects. The findings herein suggest that unclear or fuzzy settings increase the role of economic conditions in determination of system affect.

Personalization in political Television News: A 13-Wave Survey Study to Assess Effects of Text and Footage

Television news is the main battlefield of democratic politics. How are politicians presented in this news and how do voters react to this presentation? Theory about the effects of attention for a politician in texts, sound bites or voice-overs on party preference is discussed in this article. The content of 457 news items from a public and commercial broadcaster is analyzed using the NET method (Network analysis of Evaluative Texts, Van Cuilenberg et al., 1986). The items were broadcast during the 15 weeks preceding the 1989 elections in the Netherlands. Pooled time series analysis is used to predict party preference of an individual (assessed in a 13-wave panel survey study, N=575) on the basis of his or her news consumption as assessed by the content analysis. This analysis makes clear, that, although party leaders are important, parties are still dominant in the texts of the news items. Politicians, especially party leaders, are the foremost important messengers of stands on issues of a party. The results affirm Hallin's suggestion (1992) that politicians need sound bites to convince voters. Voice-overs do not have a discernible effect. The effect of texts of political news is strongly related to the effect of the footage. These communication effects result from a combination of characteristics of the politician and his party, features of media coverage and characteristics of the voter

Representative Bureaucracy and Distributional Equity: Addressing the Hard Question

Research on representative bureaucracy has failed to deal with whether or not representative bureaucracies produce minority gains at the expense of nonminorities. Using a pooled time-series analysis of 350 school districts over six years, this study examines the relationship between representative bureaucracy and organizational outputs for minorities and nonminorities. Far from finding that representative bureaucracy produces minority gains at the expense of nonminorities, this study finds both minority and nonminority students perform better in the presence of a representative bureaucracy. This finding suggests an alternative hypothesis to guide research: that representative bureaucracies are more effective than their nonrepresentative counterparts.

How Constraining is Capital Mobility? The Partisan Hypothesis in an Open Economy

A growing literature argues that international financial integration has eliminated the possibility for distinct partisan macroeconomic strategies. I test this hypothesis by reformulating the partisan hypothesis in an open-economy context and conducting pooled timeseries analysis of budget balances, real interest rates, and capital controls for fourteen OECD countries between 1970 and 1994. The analysis provides little evidence that financial integration has eliminated distinct partisan macroeconomic policies. Under fixed exchange rates leftist governments run larger deficits than rightist governments and use capital controls to reduce interest rate premia. Under floating exchange rates leftist governments pursue looser monetary policies than rightist governments. While partisan distinctions do weaken in the 1990s in countries with fixed exchange rates, this is attributed to the recession of the early 1990s and to important institutional changes in the European Union. International financial integration, therefore, does not prevent governments from pursuing distinct partisan macroeconomic policies.

Black Democratic Partisanship and White Flight in Louisiana, 1975 Through 1996

In a unique study by Giles and Hertz (1994) titled Racial Threat and Partisan Identification, an explanation is provided for defections among White Democrats in Louisiana. A pooled time-series analysis of Louisiana voter registration data from 1975 to 1990 found that higher concentrations of black Democratic members are associated with declines in the percentage of white registered voters who are Democrats and an increase in the percentage who are Republicans (p. 317). White voters in Louisiana see a large Black membership in the state's Democratic party as a threat to their continued dominance of that party. Thus, the greater the number of Blacks joining the Louisiana Democratic party, the greater the threat to White voters' interests within that party and in the state. The study concluded that White Democrats were joining the more White interest-oriented Republican party or becoming Independents due to the political threat posed by increasing Black membership (see Giles & Hertz, 1994). The study employed the theoretical assertions of power theory, which view intergroup relationships as competitive within political, economic, and social arenas. Simply, the greater the

Implications of the 65-mph speed limit for traffic safety.

This study evaluates the impact of the 65-mph speed limit on traffic safety. Using data for the years 1981 to 1995 for all 50 states, a pooled time series analysis is conducted. Separate models are estimated for state fatality rates on four categories of roads: rural interstate highways, rural noninterstate roads, all roads except for rural interstate highways, and all roads. It is reported that the 65-mph speed limit increased fatality rates on rural interstate highways but was correlated with a reduction in state fatality rates on the three other categories of roads.

The Effect of TV Ads and Candidate Appearances on Statewide Presidential Votes, 1988–96

Although presidential campaigns have been mythologized in literature and cinema, most theories of elections relegate them to a secondary role, presuming they have little effect on outcomes. Direct tests of campaigning's influence on electoral college votes are rare, mostly because statewide data on the allocation of resources and voters' preferences have been hard to obtain. Many studies suggest a minimal effect, but it is possible that a more significant influence might be found with better data on the key dependent and independent variables. This study uses data on presidential candidates' appearances and television advertising purchases to conduct cross-sectional and pooled time-series analyses of their influence on statewide outcomes in 1988, 1992, and 1996. The data demonstrate that, despite the conditioning influence of other factors, campaigning affected statewide preferences as well as the electoral college vote.

Gender-Neutral Automobile-Insurance Rates: Have They Made a Difference?

The authors' objective was to assess the impact of gender-neutral automobile-insurance laws in four states, and to ask whether these laws have increased prices, increased market concentration, discouraged driving, or encouraged greater risk taking? A pooled time-series analysis for 21 years in four states was used to test the relationship between adopting a gender-neutral insurance law and risk-adjusted prices, industry concentration, numbers of licensed drivers, and traffic fatalities. The authors find that gender-neutral automobile-insurance laws have no impact on the risk-adjusted price of insurance, the market share held by direct writers, the number of licensed drivers, or the rate of traffic fatalities. Gender-neutral laws were associated with a larger market share being controlled by the three largest firms. The authors conclude that because gender-neutral insurance laws have no impacts which are detrimental to consumers, they could be adopted by all states with few negative consequences.