Polynomial Trend Research Articles

APPLICATION OF FLUCTUATING ASYMMETRY METHODS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING IN KAMIANSKE

The city of Kamianske has a hazardous environmental situation due to the long and intensive development of industry, whose enterprises emit large amounts of harmful substances into the atmosphere. Therefore, the implementation of continuous environmental monitoring for the city is an urgent task that can be solved by combining instrumental measurement methods with phytoindication methods. The aim of the study is to test the methods of phytoindication in the environmental monitoring system using the indicator of fluctuating asymmetry of the leaf blade of woody plants of the Populus canadensis species and to assess the quality of the environment, taking into account the functional zones of the urban system. A methodology for assessing the quality of the environment by the integral index of the fluctuating asymmetry of the leaf blade of Populus plants has been developed and an assessment scale with different gradient values has been proposed. The integral indicator of the fluctuating asymmetry of the leaf blades of Populus canadensi plants was calculated for 30 experimental plots covering all functional zones of Kamianske. It was determined that the quality of the environment within the industrial zones is characterised as critically polluted with unfavourable conditions for living organisms, which is confirmed by the integral index of fluctuating asymmetry 0,076¸0,104. Settlement areas are characterised as polluted, with an integral index of 0,063¸0,093. In recreational areas, the state of the environment is assessed by a conditional norm of 0,054¸0,066. The results of the average integral index of leaf asymmetry of Populus canadensi plants for a ten-year period for the city of Kamianske were compared, and the lower (0,038±0,002) and upper (0,106±0,003) limits of the index were determined. The dependence of the integral indicator on the volume of pollutant emissions into the atmosphere has been established, which is confirmed by high correlation coefficients r = 0,8¸0,9 at a significance level of p < 0,05. The modelled polynomial trends predict further growth of the integral indicator of fluctuating asymmetry depending on the increase in pollutant emissions.

Using an Additive Component Model to forecast the number of mergers and acquisitions in China

Research is devoted to the topic of modeling and forecasting seasonal fluctuations in MA transactions in China to assess the short-term outlook for the movement of this sector, as well as for future studies of MA market conditions in the PRC. As a forecasting method the authors have chosen a model with an additive component that considers quarterly data on the number of MA deals in the Celestial Empire for the past 15 quarters. The order of building a model with additive component is calculation of seasonal component values, deseasonalization of data, trend calculation and evaluation of forecast accuracy. Additive model allows smoothing seasonality by separating seasonal component from time series and separating it from trend and residual component. This action is performed by subtracting the seasonal component from the original time series. Thus, seasonality is removed from the time series, and only trend and residual component remain. After extraction of the seasonal component, it can be analyzed separately and used to predict future values of the time series. It is also possible to use smoothing methods, such as moving average or exponential smoothing, to smooth the seasonality and get a smoother trend. The authors also built trend models, namely linear, power, polynomial, exponential and logarithmic trend models and chose the polynomial model that provides the highest coefficient of determination. The resulting model has made it possible to forecast the number of transactions by quarter until the end of 2023, in the aftermath of which the possible reasons for the decline in the number of mergers and acquisitions in China are described.

Assessment of managed aquifer recharge in saline confined aquifers for freshwater storage and improved recovery: A 3D tank study under various operational conditions

Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR), a subset of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) techniques, is a promising technique to address water scarcity issues by recharging depleted aquifers. The application of ASR in saline groundwater regions is challenging due to mixing of recharged freshwater with the ambient saline groundwater, decreasing the recoverable amount of freshwater. This paper aimed to investigate the feasibility of ASR techniques for freshwater storage and recovery in saline confined aquifers using a laboratory scale physical model (100 cm length x 30 cm width x 60 cm depth). The study then explored the impact of operational factors (freshwater storage duration, injected freshwater volume, number of injection/extraction cycles etc.) on freshwater recovery from an applied ASR. Firstly, the behaviour of stored freshwater in a saline-confined aquifer was investigated, and in the next step, the impact of ASR operational parameters on the recovery efficiency (RE) was evaluated. Along with the physical model, these effects were studied using a mathematical model (MODFLOW linked with SEAWAT) for the representative aquifer system. The movement and spreading of the stored freshwater were monitored over time. The experimental results presented in this study suggested that several factors significantly influence the efficiency of ASR systems. A negative correlation between ambient groundwater salinity and average recovery efficiency (ARE) was confirmed, with decreasing ARE observed as the salinity level increased. The injection volume of freshwater was found to have a positive influence on ARE, although the relationship was non-linear, a polynomial trend was observed. The longer freshwater was stored in the aquifer, the lower ARE was reported, indicating a negative impact of storage duration on ASR performance. Finally, the number of successive cycles of ASR operation was found to have a positive influence on ARE, but the effect decreased with each subsequent cycle. This research provided valuable insights into the application of ASR techniques for freshwater storage and its enhanced recovery in saline confined aquifers.

Forecasting financial and economic indicators activities of enterprises using charts

It is emphasized that the forecasting of financial and economic performance of enterprises has its own characteristics, due to the fact that income from product sales, gross and net profits, as a rule, are unstable. This is especially true for agricultural organizations and processing enterprises. ATU Gagauzia is located in the epicenter of the zone of risky (unsustainable) agriculture. The methodology for forecasting the financial and economic performance of enterprises requires clarification and, if possible, the use of uniform approaches available for use in practice, both for educational purposes and in agricultural organizations. A graphical forecasting method is proposed as the simplest and most accessible for practical use. It is based on the use of charts, analysis of their trends and approximation coefficients, reflecting the trend in the development of economic phenomena over the past 5 years or more. if the approximation coefficient is 0.8 or higher, a linear trend can be used for forecasting. If the approximation coefficient is in the range of 0.5 - 0.8, the forecast value of the indicator should be determined as an average value calculated from linear and polynomial trends. With an approximation coefficient below 0.5, the forecast is calculated as the average of linear and polynomial trends based on the use of annual moving averages. The article presents a methodology for calculating the forecast values of income from sales, equity and net profit on the example of a specific enterprise of ATU Gagauzia for 2013-2022.

Аналіз захворюваності на Лайм-бореліоз під час епідемії COVID-19

The global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has created unprecedented health, social and economic challenges, and has led to a sharp decline in official statistical reporting of many infectious diseases, including Lyme borreliosis (LB), especially in children, due to COVID-19-related health, anti-epidemic and quarantine measures. Purpose - to assess the completeness of statistical accounting of LB in children against the background of the COVID-19 situation in the context of the epidemic in the Ternopil region of Ukraine that began in the spring of 2020. Materials and methods. A PubMed search was conducted for analytical articles on LB and COVID-19 for the period from 2020 to February 2023. Epidemiological analysis and forecasting were performed using statistical methods. The search included 300 publications. After the selection process, 25 publications were included in the review. The results of long-term epidemiologic surveillance of tick-borne infectious diseases in the Ternopil region, including data from official statistics, epidemiologic investigations, and laboratory studies, were analyzed. To predict the incidence of LB in the first half of 2023 for the age group 0-17 years, over 17 years and all age groups, increasing polynomial trends of the second order with approximation coefficients equal to 1 were used. To predict the incidence of COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 for the age group 0-17 years, an increasing linear trend with an approximation coefficient equal to 0.8 was used. To predict the incidence of COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 for the age groups 18-29 years, 30-49 years, 50-65 years, over 65 years and all age groups, we used decreasing polynomial trends of the second order with approximation coefficients equal to 1. The vast majority of the highest values of the approximation coefficients confirm the high accuracy of predicting the incidence of VL and COVID-19 in the first half of 2023 in the Ternopil region. Results and conclusions. The officially registered number of cases of pulmonary disease, including among children, during the COVID-19 epidemic in Ternopil region is likely incomplete and does not reflect the actual incidence rate. This is due to the problem of identifying patients with pulmonary disease during the COVID-19 epidemic. After a sharp decline in reported cases of LB in 2020 compared to previous years, in 2021-2023, there was an improvement in its detection and diagnosis, but at levels lower than before the COVID-19 epidemic. However, the proportion of children is decreasing. No conflict of interests was declared by the authors.

Interannual variability in thermal state of the upper mixed layer in the Bering Sea in winter

Year-to-year variations of temperature in the upper mixed layer are considered for the ice-free waters of the Bering Sea in cold season (from December to March) using all data of the deep-sea oceanographic observations available to date (12,430 stations for the period from 1943 to 2022). Series of annual mean fields of the mixed layer temperature in December-March were decomposed by applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF); dynamics of the first two components of decomposition (described in sum 50.4 % of the initial fields variability) are analyzed. The first component (32.4 % of variation) indicates synchronous oscillations over the entire sea area with the maximum contribution at the continental slope. The second component (18.0 % of variance) reflects opposite oscillations in two vast regions of the sea located along the continental slope from Cape Navarin to Alaska Peninsula and in the western, central and southern parts of the deep basin. The following statistically significant periodic oscillations are revealed by spectral analysis: quasi-biennial and those with periods of 4, 7, and 17–20 year for the 1st EOF and quasi-biennial and those with periods of 3 and 4 year for the 2nd EOF. A statistically significant linear trend to warming is detected for the time coefficient of the 1st EOF in the period of 1958–2022. Approximation of this coefficient dynamics with 6-degree polynomial function (polynomial trend) shows a tendencies to the mixed layer cooling in winters of 1969–1972 and 1992–2004 but the opposite tendencies to warming in 1973–1991 and 2005–2022. Variations of time coefficient for the 2nd EOF correspond to opposite tendencies in the areas with positive and negative values of this EOF. For the period from 1958 to 2022, winters in the Bering Sea are classified by the mixed layer temperature, taking into account the contribution of the 1st EOF only, as «warm» (1958, 1959, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2015–2018, 2020, and 2022), «normal» (1960–1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1974, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1986, 1989–1994, 1996, 1998, 2005–2007, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2019, and 2021), «cold» (1969, 1972, 1973, 1975–1977, 1984, 1988, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2008, and 2010), and extremely cold (2009 and 2012).

Degradation and modeling of large-format commercial lithium-ion cells as a function of chemistry, design, and aging conditions

Demand for large-format (>10 Ah) lithium-ion batteries has increased substantially in recent years, due to the growth of both electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets. The economics of these applications is sensitive to the lifetime of the batteries, and end-of-life can either be due to energy or power limitations. Despite this, there is little information from cell manufacturers on the sensitivity of cell degradation to environmental conditions or battery use. This work reports accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries from three manufacturers, with varying design (thickness, casings, …), chemistry (lithium‑iron-phosphate (LFP) or lithium‑nickel‑manganese‑cobalt-oxide positive electrodes (NMC), with graphite (Gr) negative electrodes), and capacity (50 to 250 Amp∙hours). The tested LFP|Gr cell is found to be relatively insensitive to cycling conditions like temperature or voltage window, while NMC|Gr cells have varying sensitivity. Degradation trends are further investigated by training predictive models: simple polynomial trend lines, a semi-empirical reduced-order model, and an empirical reduced-order model identified using machine-learning based on symbolic regression. Calendar and cycle life are simulated over a variety of conditions to directly compare the various batteries. Cell size and thickness are found to substantially impact sensitivity to temperature during cycle aging, while electrode chemistry impacts depth-of-discharge sensitivity. Real-world battery lifetime is evaluated by simulating residential energy storage and commercial frequency containment reserve systems in several U.S. climate regions. Predicted lifetime across cell types varies from 7 years to 20+ years, though all cells are predicted to have at least 10 year life in certain conditions.

3D spatial interpolation of soil heavy metals by combining kriging with depth function trend model

In this study, a hybrid method combining 3D kriging and depth function considering heterogeneity (3DK_DF) was proposed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of 3D spatial interpolation for soil heavy metals. Soil samples collected at varied depth intervals in a mining city in China were used as a case dataset. First, the parameters of a logarithmic depth function model for every horizontal soil sample site were fitted on the basis of the observed values of soil Cd collected at varied depth intervals. Second, the 3D trend of soil Cd was obtained on the basis of the spatial distributions of the parameters of the logarithmic depth function model. Third, 3D kriging was used to generate the 3D spatial distribution of residual Cd. Finally, the 3D spatial distribution of the soil Cd was obtained by combining the 3D trend and residual results. The interpolation accuracy of 3DK_DF improved by 29.71% and 48.9% compared with those of the 3D kriging without a trend analysis and the 3D kriging with a polynomial trend model, respectively. The proposed hybrid 3D interpolation method could be of great significance for the comprehensive assessment of soil heavy metal pollution.

Poster Session: Deep retinal layer microvasculature alterations in first episode and chronic schizophrenia.

People with schizophrenia (SZ) demonstrate retinal microvasculature alterations that are similar to those observed in individuals with neurodegenerative disorders. Initial findings indicate that these changes are present in the superficial layer in SZ. This study examined whether changes are also present in the deep retinal layer level (DRL). Twenty-six individuals with SZ (10 with first episode psychosis [FEP]) and 37 healthy controls (HCs; 17 age-matched to FEP group) completed optical coherence tomography angiography scans. Compared to controls, people with SZ demonstrated reduced DRL perfusion density (ps < 0.04) and vessel diameter (ps < 0.01) in both eyes, and, in the left eye only, reduced vessel length and fractal dimension (ps = 0.01). We then tested for an illness progression effect by determining the degree to which the original 4 group means were characterized by a polynomial (linear) trend, using the following contrast coefficients: non-FEP SZ (-2), FEP (0), older controls (0), young controls (2). The hypothesized pattern was observed to a significant or trend level degree for 7 out of 8 variables, with effect sizes ranging from small to large. Findings also indicated that, within the SZ group, reduced DRL perfusion density and vessel length were associated with reductions in (previously reported) superficial layer indices (ps < .001). Overall, findings suggest that alterations in retinal microvasculature are present in both the superficial and DRL in SZ.

Оценка пожарных рисков в Российской Федерации в целом и её мегаполисах на примере Москвы и Санкт-Петербурга, 2009–2021 гг.

Summary. The purpose of the study is, in connection with the change in the procedure for statistical recording of fires, to assess their health consequences in the Russian Federation as a whole and its megacities using the example of Moscow and St. Petersburg for 13 years (2009–2021). Materials and methods of research. Data on the number of fires was taken from the Federal Database “Fires” [https://sites.google.com/site/statistikapozaro/]; population size – on the Rosstat website [https://rosstat.gov.ru/]. Retrospectively, fire statistics since 2009 have included fires. The results of the study were checked for normal distribution of characteristics. The dynamics of indicators was studied using the analysis of time series, for which a 2nd order polynomial trend was used, etc. Research results and their analysis. As a result of the study, the following risks were calculated for the population of the Russian Federation as a whole, Moscow and St. Petersburg: the risk of being caught in a fire; risk of dying in a fire; risk of injury in a fire; individual risk of dying in a fire per 100 thousand population; individual risk of injury in a fire per 100 thousand population. Conclusions: As a rule, the magnitude of individual fire risks in megacities, due to the coordinated work of fire crews during fire fighting, evacuation of people and a number of other circumstances, was less than in the Russian Federation as a whole; there is also a downward trend. The individual risk of death in a fire in Moscow and St. Petersburg was low for Russia; in Moscow the individual risk of injury was low, in St. Petersburg it was average. The calculated new fire risks can be used when carrying out more targeted work to reduce them in the regions of the Russian Federation.

Application of Polynomial Models in Bayesian Fusion of Humidity Sensors

Local polynomial trend models are a special class of state-space models that can be used without having the full information about the process under study, since most of their parameters are embodied in the state vector and estimated immediately. This makes them attractive for use in signal processing. The present work considers problems that arise when using a polynomial model with a local quadratic trend for Bayesian fusion of two humidity sensors. The unknown sensor biases make it impossible for the model to satisfy the observability conditions. There is currently no general solution to this problem. To overcome this difficulty, an approach is presented where the humidity measurement result implicitly includes the bias of one of the sensors. The results of the study can be used to fuse quantities other than humidity when two or more sensors are available.

Trophic Position of the Species and Site Trophic State Affect Diet Niche and Individual Specialization: From Apex Predator to Herbivore.

Intra-species variability in isotopic niches, specifically isotopic total niche width (ITNW), isotopic individual niche width (IINW), and isotopic individual specialization (IIS), was studied using an innovative approach without sacrificing the vertebrates. Stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N) in four body tissues differing in isotopic half-life were analyzed from four freshwater fish species representing different trophic positions. ITNW was widest for the apex predator (European catfish) and narrowest for the obligate predator (Northern pike). IINW exhibited a polynomial trend for the European catfish, Northern pike, and Eurasian perch (mesopredator), decreasing with body mass and increasing again after exceeding a certain species-dependent body mass threshold. Thus, for ectotherms, apex predator status is linked rather to its size than to the species. In herbivores (rudd), IINW increased with body mass. The IIS of predators negatively correlated with site trophic state. Therefore, eutrophication can significantly change the foraging behavior of certain species. We assume that the observed trends will occur in other species at similar trophic positions in either aquatic or terrestrial systems. For confirmation, we recommend conducting a similar study on other species in different habitats.

Reworking Geometric Morphometrics into a Methodology of Transformation Grids

AbstractToday’s typical application of geometric morphometrics to a quantitative comparison of organismal anatomies begins by standardizing samples of homologously labelled point configurations for location, orientation, and scale, and then renders the ensuing comparisons graphically by thin-plate spline as applied to group averages, principal components, regression predictions, or canonical variates. The scale-standardization step has recently come under criticism as unnecessary and indeed inappropriate, at least for growth studies. This essay argues for a similar rethinking of the centering and rotation, and then the replacement of the thin-plate spline interpolant of the resulting configurations by a different strategy that leaves unexplained residuals at every landmark individually in order to simplify the interpretation of the displayed grid as a whole, the “transformation grid” that has been highlighted as the true underlying topic ever since D’Arcy Thompson’s celebrated exposition of 1917. For analyses of comparisons involving gradients at large geometric scale, this paper argues for replacement of all three of the Procrustes conventions by a version of my two-point registration of 1986 [originally Galton’s of 1907 (Nature 76:617–618, 1907)]. The choice of the two points interacts with another non-Procrustes concern, interpretability of the grid lines of a coordinate system deformed according to a fitted polynomial trend rather than an interpolating thin-plate spline. The paper works two examples using previously published midsagittal cranial data; there result new findings pertinent to the interpretation of both of these classic data sets. A concluding discussion suggests that the current toolkit of geometric morphometrics, centered on Procrustes shape coordinates and thin-plate splines, is too restricted to suit many of the interpretive purposes of evolutionary and developmental biology.

Genesis of scientific research directions in dentistry: on the materials of dissertation research

BACKGROUND: In 2022, a new passport of the specialty 3.1.7 Dentistry has been introduced with new lines of scientific research; however, no content analysis of previous studies over a long period has been made.&#x0D; AIM: To examine the genesis of scientific research lines based on dissertation materials in the specialty 14.01.14 (14.00.21) Dentistry in 28 years (19932020).&#x0D; MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study analyzed dissertation abstracts (19932020) published in the electronic catalogs of the Russian State Library, Russian National Library, and Central Scientific Medical Library. The results were checked for the normalcy of the location of markers. Arithmetical means and their errors are presented in the text. The development of scientific research lines has been explored statistically, and a second-order polynomial trend was built.&#x0D; RESULTS: The study identified 5773 dissertation abstracts in the specialty 14.01.14 (14.00.21) Dentistry, submitted to the dissertation councils of the USSR (Russia) in 19932020. They accounted for approximately 5.8% of all medical dissertations in Russia. In total, 610 (10.5%) dissertations for the doctor of medicine and 5163 (89.5%) for the candidate of medicine were found. The average annual array was 206 15, including candidate ones with 184 14, and doctorate ones with 22 1. Moreover, 24.2% of the works were at the science intersection (in two specialties). Generally, polynomial trends in the number of dissertations and indicators of scientific research lines were associated with inverted U-curves with maximum data in 20042009, and with data decrease in the last monitoring period, it generally reflected the training development of highly qualified specialists in Russia.&#x0D; CONCLUSION: The content analysis of the dissertations revealed the genesis of dentistry-leading knowledge, which can help scientists avoid parallel or dead-end studies when planning their work.

Spectral narratives of microstructural restyling and their controls on hydrocarbon generation potential from coal

The low to medium-rank Tertiary coals from Meghalaya, India, are explored for the first time for their comprehensive microstructural characterization using the FTIR and Raman spectroscopy. Further, results from these coals are compared with the Permian medium and high-rank coals to understand the microstructural restyling during coalification and its controls on hydrocarbon generation. The coal samples are grouped based on the mean random vitrinite reflectance values to record the transformations in spectral attributes with increasing coal rank. The aliphatic carbon and the apparent aromaticity respond sharply to the first coalification jump ({bar{rm R}}r: 0.50%) during low to medium-rank transition and anchizonal metamorphism of the high-rank coals. Moreover, the Raman band intensity ratio changes during the first coalification jump but remains invariable in the medium-rank coals and turns subtle again during the onset of pregraphitization in high-rank coals, revealing a polynomial trend with the coal metamorphism. The Rock–Eval hydrogen index and genetic potential also decline sharply at the first coalification jump. Besides, an attempt to comprehend the coal microstructural controls on the hydrocarbon potential reveals that the Tertiary coals comprise highly reactive aliphatic functionalities in the type II-S kerogen, along with the low paleotemperature (74.59–112.28 °C) may signify their potential to generate early-mature hydrocarbons. However, the presence of type II-III admixed kerogen, a lesser abundance of reactive moieties, and overall moderate paleotemperature (91.93–142.52 °C) of the Permian medium-rank coals may imply their mixed hydrocarbon potential. Meanwhile, anchizonal metamorphism, polycondensed aromatic microstructure, and high values of paleotemperature (~ 334.25 to ~ 366.79 °C) of the high-rank coals indicate a negligible potential of producing any hydrocarbons.

Quantifying prior model complexity for subsurface reservoir models

In Bayesian approaches to history matching for subsurface inference, the prior model specifies the uncertain model parameters and the joint probability of those parameters before incorporating production-related data. A good prior model is generally complex enough to capture the future reservoir behavior in the long term, realistic enough to be plausible, consistent with geologic knowledge, and simple enough to allow calibration for data matching. Model complexity is often associated with the number of model parameters, thus the focus on finding the sufficient number of parameters needed for history matching and quantifying future uncertainty.This work explores model choice based on concepts of complexity and informativeness of models for subsurface reservoir models. It focuses on the effect of the misspecification of prior models for assimilating flow data and their predictive accuracy. The concept of the effective number of parameters is used to investigate the suitability of various types of prior models with different levels of complexity, ranging from a highly simplified polynomial trend model to a more realistic multipoint statistical model(MPS) and a family of isotropic Gaussian models and explore the effect of level of model complexity on the robustness of forecasting. The numerical experiments were performed with different combinations of data type, prior informativeness, forecast type, and model type to compare the effect of different prior models on the robustness of the results. The effective number of parameters was computed for each prior model and their accuracy for predicting future reservoir behavior was analyzed.The results suggest that effective model dimension is a useful measure of model complexity for history matching problems, although it is not independent of the data used for model calibration and the number of effective model parameters is generally much smaller than the number of model parameters. In a data-rich problem, realism of a model is much less important than the complexity of a model, while for a problem with few data, realism was beneficial for reliable forecasts.

Vigilance end-spurt patterns in event-related potentials

The end-spurt effect, where performance declines with time-on-task and then increases toward the end of a task, has garnered little attention in the vigilance literature. Researchers have suggested the performance enhancement is due to increased motivation or arousal with knowledge of the end of the vigil. However, recent examination of neural signature patterns during a simultaneous discrimination task, where task length was unknown, provided preliminary support that the end-spurt reflects pacing of resources. The current effort expands this previous work to an additional simultaneous task and to a successive discrimination task across two sessions, one where task length was not known and one where task length was known. Twenty-eight (Study 1) and a separate 24 (Study 2) participants completed a Simultaneous Radar task (Study 1) in one session and Simultaneous and Successive Lines tasks (Study 2) across two sessions while neural data was collected. Several event-related potentials exhibited non-monotonic patterns during the vigilance tasks, in some cases reflecting end-spurt patterns, but more commonly reflecting higher-order polynomial patterns. These patterns were more prevalent in anterior regions as opposed to posterior regions. Of note, the N1 anterior exhibited consistent general patterns across all the vigilance tasks and across sessions. Importantly, even when participants had knowledge of session length, some ERPs still exhibited higher-order polynomial trends, suggesting pacing rather than an end-spurt from motivation or arousal as the vigil ends. These insights can help inform predictive modeling of vigilance performance and the implementation of mitigation efforts to allay the vigilance decrement.

The composition of nosologies and occupational injury risks in officers of the Federal Fire Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia (2012–2021).

Relevance. Professional firefighters are exposed to high levels of physical and emotional stress which impacts their functional reserves and makes the susceptible to erroneous actions and occupational traumas. The objective is to assess the decade-long (2012 to 2021) risk of occupational injuries and to establish its correlation with nosologies of external causes under Chapter XIX of the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10).Methods. We analyzed occupational injuries across different categories among Federal Fire Service (FFS) officers of the EMERCOM of Russia (emergency response squads, prevention, technical and administrative workforce), their causes (technical, organizational, psychophysiological and hazardous fire-related factors), and performed occupational activities (firefighting, training, sport or daily activities). Based on the ICD-10, injury risks and exposure of particular body areas to external factors were calculated per 10,000 people according (×10–4).Results and Discussion. Over a 10 year’s timespan, 1,769 occupational injuries have been registered among Federal Fire Service officers EMERCOM of Russia. The occupational injury rate for firefighters was (9.19 ± 0.54)•10–4 injuries/(person•year), which was statistically significantly lower (p &lt; 0.001) than for male workforce employed in Russian economy sectors – (16.50 ± 1.09)•10–4. The overall average diagnose per injury rate was 1.5, including 1.7 in firefighting and other emergency response activities, 1.4 in combat training activities, and 1.5 in routine activities. The weighted average risk of body injuries was (11.96 ± 0.89)•10–4 injuries/(person•year); in particular, cumulative injury risk rate was (10.01 ± 0.83)•10–4 responsible for 83.6% of the total value, with burns (1.39 ± 0.23)•10–4 (equal to 11.6%), poisoning by combustion products (0.39 ± 0.09)•10–4 (equal to 3.3%), heat fainting (0.18 ± 0.04)•10–4 (equal to 1.5%) respectively. The congruent risk trends for occupational injuries, industrial head and body injuries, including burns, are positive and statistically significant, which suggests the trends are driven by identical (unidirectional) parameters. For determination coefficients of different significance, the polynomial trend of body injuries risk shows a downward trend of data reduction; the risk of burns resembles an inverted U-curve; while the risk of poisoning by combustion products demonstrates an increase in indicator values. Risks of injuries to the head (S00–S09 in ICD-10) showed rank 1 of significance among occupational body lesions in the entire cohort of firefighters, reaching the level of (2,49 ± 0,32)•10–4 injuries/(person•year) equal to 20.8 % of all occupational injuries; knee and shin injuries were assigned rank 2 (S80-S89) – (1.87 ± 0.24)•10–4 equal to 15.6 %; ankle and foot area were assigned rank 3 (S90–S99) – (1.11 ± 0.15)•10–4 equal to 9,3 %; rank 4 injuries were injuries of the thorax (S20–S29) – (0.91 ± 0.13)•10–4 equal to 7.6 %; wrist and hand injuries were assigned rank 5 (S40–S49) – (0.88 ± 0.07)•10–4 equal to 7.4 % respectively. Overall, these body traumas amounted to 60.7 % of all occupational injuries of external causes. In the genesis of damages of body areas of firefighters during occupational injury, the leading place is given to head injuries, which contribute to loss of balance and create conditions for falling, as a result of which other areas of the body are injured. The analysis of occupational injuries and nosologies across different workforce categories was effectively performed taking account of injury causes and types of activity.Conclusion. The analysis of cause-and-effect relations of all injuries among heads of subdivisions, occupational safety officers, fire engineers, firefighters and doctors allows to improve prevention of occupational injuries among officers of the Federal Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia.

Медико-санитарные последствия крупных чрезвычайных ситуаций в мире, 2012–2021 гг.

Summary. Investigation purpose – to analyze and summarize data about medical-sanitary consequences of major emergency situations (ES) in the world for last 10 years (2012–2021). Materials and methods of the investigation. An object of investigation – data base about major ES in the world (The Emergency Events Database, EM-DAT: OFDA/CRED) [https://public.emdat.be/]. Average annual data is presented by median, upper and lower quartiles (Me [q25; q75]). Risks of injury, illness or death because of ES were calculated for 1 million people (10–6). Analysis of dynamic of changing medical-sanitary indicators of consequences of major ES in the world were provided by analysis of dynamic series with calculating of 2nd stage polynomial trend and determination coefficient. Investigation results and their analysis. From 2012 till 2021 in EM-DAT data base 5533 major ES were presented, including 877 natural disasters, 1814 technogenic disasters. With low determination coefficients polynomial trends show, as rule, a tendency of ES number reduction, decreasing of risks of injury, illness and appearance of ES with medical-sanitary consequences.

Comparative analysis of wheat production indicators in Republic of Moldova and Republic of Belarus

The importance of wheat production and ensuring sustainable growth of its production is emphasized. The purpose of the study is to identify the productivity of land in the cultivation of wheat in agriculture of the Republic of Moldova and the Republic of Belarus based on a graphical research method using linear and polynomial trends and to determine predictive values. The information and empirical base of the study is based on the materials of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova and the Republic of Belarus and covers the period 2000-2021. In the course of the study, monographic, economic-statistical and graphic research methods were used. An assessment was made of the production volumes and yields of wheat, trends in their change were identified, and forecast values for 2022 were calculated. It is emphasized that the proposed methodology can be successfully used both for educational purposes and by industry practitioners.