Political Settlement Research Articles

Transition to Democracy in Deeply Divided Ethiopia: Mission Impossible?

The article explains the state of political transition in Ethiopia since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 based on the concept of political settlement in the context of divided societies. It is qualitative research based on in-depth interviews with fifteen key political party leaders and key experts. Relevant literature on democratization in Ethiopia has been reviewed and has rarely explored the issue of democratization in the context of divided societies. Ethiopia is a deeply divided society that hosts countless politically mobilized ethnonational liberation movements seeking more political autonomy and a fair share in central decision-making institutions. While Ethiopians and the international community hoped for Ethiopia's transition to democracy under Abiy, the findings show that the transition is stalled, and the process is hijacked by centralizing and increasingly authoritarian elite that has marginalized key political actors. Centralization and marginalization are currently two major challenges. Both are inimical to deeply divided Ethiopia that hosts a variety of territorially based cleavages. Cycles of marginalization have entrenched fragility in Ethiopia, as the fight continues between those who are in power and those who are excluded. Transition to democracy implies an inclusive political system, popular and elite support for democracy and democratic rules are accepted as norms, anti-system parties are weak or nonexistent, and, most importantly, authoritarianism is rejected wholeheartedly. This is a fundamental question for Ethiopia and is called the genetic question of democracy because it determines the gateway and the answer to the question: How does democracy come into being in the first place? One cannot have democracy when a country has a significant number of armed rebel groups in or outside the country who still think that power comes through the barrel of a gun. Nor is the transition to democracy possible when the elite in power adopts violence and the use of force as a means to stay in power. Transition to democracy can succeed only through an inclusive dialogue that produces political settlement addressing the deep cleavages.

Complaint Authority for Constitutional Complaint by Indonesia’s Constitutional Court

Constitutional Court will be able to provide protection for constitutional rights which will produce institutions that are able to provide answers to reforms. The presence of the Constitutional Court third amendment to the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, which became the basis of Article 24C. The legitimacy of the Constitutional Court in a limited way is formulated, namely: to begin, to investigate legislation that violates the constitution, to adjudicate disputes over the power of state institutions vested with constitutional authority, and to adjudicate the dissolution of political parties and settlement, the four general election disputes. In the modern state administration discourse, it currently requires the Constitutional Court to expand the scope of its authority in relation to Constitutional Complaints or commonly referred to as Constitutional Complaints. The necessity of one of these powers can be seen in the number of state institutions that violate the constitutional rights of citizens through the actions of these institutions. However, the channel for this complaint still does not exist, only that currently exists in providing protection for the right of Constitutional Complaints to be protected through judicial review of the basic constitution as regulated in the constitution.

Models of post-conflict settlement on the example of Arab countries

The article presents the materials of a scientific discussion related to the topic of post-conflict settlement in the Arab world, organized by the National Communications Development Research Institution together with the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The authors analyze theoretical models and specific cases of settlement in the regions of the Middle East, North Africa, the Arab world and related challenges. The humanitarian aspect of post-conflict political settlement and economic reconstruction, which has been associated with a number of challenges in recent years, is considered.

Rebuilding public authority in Uganda dualist theory, hybrid social orders and democratic statehood

Conflicted African societies are confronting a crisis of public authority caused by the ethnic, sectarian and class conflicts generated by their ongoing transitions from authoritarian to liberal democratic institutional systems. Most have introduced competitive elections which have rarely produced stable and inclusive political outcomes, discrediting the dominant liberal democratic state-building agenda. We draw on classical ‘dualist’ and ‘new institutionalist’ theorists to explain these failures and suggest alternative strategies. They attribute these tensions to the co-existence of contradictory liberal and illiberal rules and cultural systems that interact in dissonant ways in hybrid social orders, and they enable us to develop a ‘society-centric historical methodology’ that attributes their ability or inability to achieve democratic statehood to the ability of their regimes to build inclusive and hybrid political settlements and organisational structures that reconcile the competing demands of modern and traditional elites and subordinate classes. We then demonstrate the utility of this approach by using it to explain Uganda’s transition from a stable, but dualistic colonial state, to a predatory dictatorship and then to a relatively successful competitive autocracy.

WATER CRISIS AND WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES IN THE SYRIAN REFUGEE SETTLEMENTS IN LEBANON

Water scarcity is an urgent issue in the Middle East, and rapid population growth caused by the refugee crisis impose further demand on the water supply in the country. This research was carried out in order to portray the water crisis in Lebanon analyzing the water governance policies that have been implemented by the Lebanese government, especially after the Syrian refugee crisis. The aim of this case study is to describe the main reasons behind the water scarcity in Lebanon nowadays, besides analyzing the water governance strategies implemented by the Lebanese government and other international organizations to address this crisis within the context of the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon. Findings indicate that several actions must be done to minimize water stress in Lebanon if a political settlement in Syria is established and refugees begin to return to Syria. However, even if Syrian refugees return home and Lebanon's population declines, water scarcity will remain an issue that must be addressed. These long-term plans include agricultural water-use reform and, eventually, government water-sector reform.

Participation of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in the Settlement of the Bosnian Crisis of 1992-1995

The Bosnian Crisis became a milestone in the process of disintegration of Yugoslavia. An important role in the development and settlement of the conflict was played by external actors, represented both by the countries of the West, as well as NATO and the EU, and by the Muslim community, which actively supported their co-religionists in Bosnia. On behalf of the latter, the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC, since 2011 — the Organization of Islamic Cooperation), which is the most authoritative and representative Muslim international organization, spoke. The position of the OIC, its interaction with the Bosnian leadership and other parties to the conflict significantly influenced the outcome of the Bosnian Crisis, despite the fact that most researchers tend to classify the OIC as a secondary participant in the process. The topic of the Bosnian conflict became one of the key ones at several conferences of foreign ministers of the OIC member countries, and the consolidated position of Muslim states developed at them in support of the Bosnians, according to the authors, prompted other stakeholders in the issue of resolving the conflict to more decisive action. The organization itself pursued the goal of including Bosnia and Herzegovina in its sphere of influence, but in the future this Balkan state will never become a member of the OIC, being content with observer status to this day. Nevertheless, the impact of international Islamic structures and, above all, the OIC on the course of hostilities and the political settlement in Bosnia and Herzegovina was a significant factor that retained its significance in the post-war period. Thus, the study of the history of interaction between the OIC and the Bosnian side seems relevant in order to identify the role and influence of the Islamic world on political processes in the Western Balkans and, above all, in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Unpacking the Addis Ababan Exceptionalism—Living and Making Sense of Violent Protests in Ethiopia’s Capital

Violent protests and ethno-communal violence in Ethiopia have been on the rise since 2015. Whilst the country’s capital has mostly been spared, protests have occurred in areas surrounding the capital, its suburbs and, to a lesser extent, even in its city centre. This article aims to answer how Addis Ababa residents make sense of and (dis)engage from/in violent protests and ethno-communal violence where they occur. The article explores the perceptions and experiences of established middle-class residents in the capital, drawing on ethnographic fieldwork conducted between June 2020 and May 2021. The article finds that, due to the city’s multi-ethnic character and the residents’ strong metropolitan identity, ethnic identity has not constituted a powerful tool for political mobilisation of residents within the capital. Claims based on ethnicity made by non-residents towards the capital’s resources have largely been rejected by Addis Ababans. Instead, residents have collectively defended their right to the city. The federal state’s readiness to intervene in protests in the capital has further discouraged and countered public protests and communal conflicts. The article reveals that, whilst ‘exceptional’ at the first glance, the peaceful normality of Addis Ababa has relied on ignoring conflicts within Ethiopia’s ethnic-based political settlement and has hidden ordinary, everyday forms of structural violence and conflict.

Logistics Contracts and the Political Economy of State Failure: Evidence from Somalia

ABSTRACT Scholars have long sought to understand how economic rents may inhibit the formation of effective and accountable government. Prevailing interpretations of empirical state failure do not adequately account for economic connections and rents. Based on in-depth ethnographic fieldwork and original source material from the Somalia context, this study shows how the dominance of the logistics economy, as a system of ‘graft’ endogenous to state-building, has contributed to empirical state failure. Empirical state failure is characterized by intra-elite struggle, endemic political violence, and insecurity including the threat posed by Islamic extremism. Contributing to the study of political settlements, political clientelism, and business–state relationships in Africa, findings from this study offer new insights for understanding how the dominance of logistics rents and lead firms within a political system may prevent the establishment of legitimate, centralized authorities. These findings contribute to the broader study of Africa’s political economies which have experienced protracted civil war and post-conflict reconstruction. In conclusion, it argues how economic development, procurement reform agendas, and efforts to withhold or withdraw aid through economic sanctions fail to resolve endemic conflict and governance issues due to vested interests, elite fragmentation, and polycentric aid practices. Instead, both government policy and foreign interventions continue to empower lead logistics firms (as skilful political entrepreneurs) that destabilize the Federal Government of Somalia.

Political Settlements Analysis of Natural Resource Governance in Botswana

ABSTRACT Natural resources are abundant in Africa and must be used to achieve macroeconomic goals like growth and development. Political settlements are important to achieving these results because they materially affect how natural resource governance is carried out. The pursuit of growth and development is impacted by these settlements. Political settlements may either make it easier or harder to achieve these macroeconomic goals. Natural resource rents in some polities do not result in growth and development because of win-lose political agreements. However, this need not be the case as demonstrated by the Botswana case. This study used Botswana as a case study to illustrate political settlements analysis of natural resource governance. It asked, ‘what effect do political settlements have on the management of natural resources in Botswana?’ It concluded that win-win political settlements produced inclusive resource exploitation, resulting in economic growth and development and a rise in citizen welfare. The final lesson for resource-rich African nations is to establish political settlements that promote both economic growth and development to increase societal welfare.

THE ESTIMATION OF THE WAR IN DONBAS BY SCIENTISTS AND FORMER POLITICIANS ON THE PAGES OF THE NEWSPAPER THE NEW YORK TIMES (FEBRUARY 12, 2015 – APRIL 30, 2018)

The views of scientists and former high-ranking politicians on the war in Donbass in the period between February 12, 2015 and April 30, 2018 are analyzed in the article. On that basis the best ways to end the war are shown. The scientific novelty of the study is that for the first time in historiography, the opinions of scientists and ex-politicians on the war in eastern Ukraine in the period between February 12, 2015 and April 30, 2018 were studied on the basis of the newspaper The New York Times. The following conclusions were made. Firstly, some analysts predicted that Russia would not try to seize Ukraine, but would fight in the Donbas to keep the country destabilized and prevent it from getting closer to the EU and NATO. Other experts predicted that Russia might not stop at Ukraine and use the Russians from the Baltic states to create frozen conflicts there. Secondly, the use of different terms to denote the war in Donbas and the enemies of Ukrainian troops was ambiguous. They were called mostly “insurgents”, less often “separatists”, and occasionally “militants” and “terrorists”. The war itself was most often referred to as “uprising” or “conflict”, less often as “invasion” and in isolated cases – “war”. Thirdly, after approving the first and second Minsk agreements, almost all experts immediately doubted their viability. In Minsk-2 agreement, Donbas was recognized as an integral part of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin periodically resorted to military escalation here, and instead of a political settlement he sought a frozen conflict so that Ukraine would abandon its strategic European and Euro-Atlantic course. Russia has done everything to make Ukraine look like an internally unstable, failed state in the eyes of the world, in order to take advantage of its weakness in the future. Fourthly, in the debate whether the West should provide weapons to Ukraine, two camps crystallized. Some advised the West to properly arm Ukraine, which would prevent Russian aggression against other states. Others believed that arming Ukraine would not deplete Russia. On the contrary, it could lead to the catastrophic defeat of Ukraine and the humiliation of the West. Fifthly, Western sanctions against Russia have prompted it to relinquish its claims to Donbas and warned against an aggressive course toward other countries. At the same time, the establishment of lasting peace in Ukraine, thus ending the war in Donbas, was associated exclusively with diplomatic efforts such as searching for and approval of a compromise option of autonomy or expanded local self-government.

Fixes and Flux: Frontier Brokers, Political Settlements and Post-War Politics in Nepal and Sri Lanka

This article examines post-war politics in Nepal and Sri Lanka through the prism of centre-periphery relations, drawing upon and expanding political settlements analysis. We highlight two key features neglected in existing research on political settlements: first, the spatial dimensions of these settlements – particularly the salience of frontier regions in shaping post-war orders. These ‘sensitive spaces’ continue as sites of struggle in the post-war period and frontier battles over the reordering of space and the delineation of rights, authority and citizenship are central to the emergence of post-war political settlements. Second, within these post-war frontiers we highlight the role of ‘frontier brokers’ who mediate between national and local levels of the political system. Post-war frontiers provide an opening and a demand for brokers who act as both gatekeepers and go-betweens, balancing demands from communities at the margins with the need to forge alliances and extract resources from central actors. We argue that questions of space and agency need to be foregrounded in political settlement analysis, and studying the lives of frontier brokers provides a lens for understanding shifts in political settlements and the changing relationship between the national and subnational levels of the political system at war’s end.

An Analysis of the Failure of the Peace Process (2013-2015) with PKK through the Ripeness Theory

Turkey has experienced a protracted conflict with the PKK since 1984. Over the history of almost 30 years of the violent conflict, the first comprehensive and overt peace attempt was launched by Turkish government in 2013. It had lasted for two years with great optimism and high expectations on reaching a political settlement before it failed in July 2015. This article aims to explore the reasons of the failure of 2013-2015 negotiations and examines whether conditions were suitable for launching a ‘peace process’ in 2013 to resolve Turkey’s conflict with the PKK. It draws on three main elements of Zartman’s Ripeness theory: mutually hurting stalemate (MHS), a formula for a way out and valid spokespersons. It is argued in the article that the conflict in Turkey was not in fact ripe enough for negotiations which were initiated and conducted hastily without any formula for way out and with problematic spokespersons.

Addressing educational disadvantage in Northern Ireland 1921–2021: a history of squandered opportunities?

ABSTRACT A century after partition, this article presents a critical reflection on efforts to address educational disadvantage in Northern Ireland using a Foucauldian genealogical theoretical framework. Beset by religious, political and cultural divisions from the very formation of the state in 1921, the article charts the history of opportunities heralded and then lost, including the initially ambitious though arguably naïve vision of the first Minister of Education, Lord Londonderry; the post-war egalitarian promise of the 1947 Education Act; and the introduction of the common Northern Ireland Curriculum in 1989. It is argued that, historically, education and in particular addressing educational disadvantage has not been a key policy priority for successive governments in Northern Ireland, whose attention has instead too often focused on political power struggles. Set against such a context of political instability and intransigence, the article critically examines the latest and perhaps most promising of all opportunities presented by the publication of A Fair Start, the final report and action plan of the Expert Panel on Educational Underachievement in Northern Ireland, established under the terms of the New Decade, New Approach political settlement of January 2020 and published in June 2021.

The pendulum movement: Unstable political settlements for artisanal and small-scale mining in Peru

The formalization of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) has been hampered by various policy implementation bottlenecks. The politics that explain this failed implementation are often associated with subnational agendas and local clientelist networks. In this article, we question the “locality trap”. Following a political-economic and geographical approach, we bring into dialogue political settlements and ASM formalization literature to analyze the multi-scalar coalitions that configure formalization in Peru, stressing the role of economic and political elites, and the actors enrolled in their policy iterations. We suggest that many of the policy and administrative formalization shortcomings can be explained in terms of multi-scalar coalitions and the territorial projects they mobilize around natural resource governance. We bring this conceptual framework to examine the Peruvian case. Changing elite-led coalitions over the past thirty years have constantly reassessed ASM’s value for economic development against the fabric of Peru’s political settlement, balancing large-scale mining (LSM) and foreign direct investments as the chosen source of revenue with episodes of political crisis. We characterize these back-and-forth changes with the pendulum movement, which produces unstable institutional arrangements that preclude ASM planning. We interpret that ASM informality is one way to stabilize working environments amidst rapid and poorly implemented policy shifts. In conclusion, we propose that the erratic and uneven configuration of ASM geographies is more sensitive to political instability and elite-led responses to crisis than to subnational actors alone, or commitments to balance the responsible development of ASM with environmental protection. We suggest that tackling this instability is crucial to advancing any SDG project that untaps ASM contributions.

Understanding the politics of shelter in three African cities; the contribution of political settlements

This article analyses the politics of shelter provision in three African cities, focusing on the needs of, and provision for, the low- and middle-income residents. The significance of housing to citizen well-being means that governments influence multiple facets of land and shelter, affecting the shelter options realizable for urban residents. The framework of political settlements is increasingly used to understand national political outcomes. In this paper it is used to analyse shelter outcomes at the city scale. In all three cities, national political elites have influenced housing outcomes. In the two capital cities, elites use clientelism (backed up by violence) to advantage themselves and influential local groups. Approaches to housing are used to gain political legitimacy (both through the ideas that the built environment can encapsulate and through improved access to housing). In all three cities, territorial controls are used to influence electoral outcomes (with consequences for housing outcomes). The findings reinforce the importance of understanding the political context within which shelter outcomes emerge. They also highlight that more needs to be understood about the relation of sub-national politics to national-level political settlements.

Social capital as a double-edged sword for sustained poverty escapes in Ethiopia

What enables social capital to contribute to sustained poverty escapes, and what could compensate for the negative effects of adverse social norms that inhibit pathways out of poverty? This paper seeks to answer these questions in Ethiopia by analysing three rounds of the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey (2011/12, 2013/14, and 2015/16) alongside fieldwork in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and SNNPR comprising focus group discussions, life history interviews, and key informant interviews. The study finds that families able to sustain poverty escapes typically possess a combination of material wealth, human, political and social capital, all underpinned by an enabling environment marked by factors including an evolving education system and pro-poor political settlement. Better-off households are then able to draw on social capital during shocks that could otherwise precipitate declines in wellbeing.However, the social events which sustain social capital can be a double-edged sword. Families may spend much on weddings, funerals, children’s christenings and birthdays, and inaugurations of newly houses. Reciprocity is expected when organizing these feasts, which poor families find difficult to maintain. Accordingly, some take credit and become indebted, others sell livestock and limit their ability to cope with shocks, and some young people are also forced to migrate to generate income to settle family debt. Based on these findings, policy suggestions are offered, such as through promoting public discussion of migration risks and mitigation of these risks, group-based insurance to help support costs for feasts, and expanding the scope of PSNP transfers to recognize the importance of idiosyncratic shocks.

False negotiations and the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban

This paper examines the dark side of Afghanistan’s peace negotiations that started under Donald Trump’s South Asia policy in Doha, Qatar, in September 2018 and ended, without a meaningful success, in December 2020. The paper examines both the United States–Taliban and the intra-Afghan negotiations and discusses the impact of the false negotiation behaviour by the Taliban and the Afghan government on the peace talks. It also explains how, in the absence of conditions for a political settlement, parties to the conflict acted as false negotiators, which resulted in the failure of efforts to launch a genuine peace process and in the Taliban’s military domination of Afghanistan.

Women Empowerment and Political Participation in Ghana

There is a growing recognition of the key role that women play in the economic and social development of a country. The empowerment of women has become an integral part of us. Therefore, we need to understand the processes through which we can ensure their empowerment and political participation. First of all, this study critically examines the socio-cultural problems that serve as barriers to women empowerment and the concrete policies and programs needed to nip them in the bud. As a result of this, the study also analyses the government of Ghana's policies and programs aimed at empowering women. These were designed and executed according to the political settlements approach. The study, therefore, examines this approach and uses both qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze them. In the end, data analysis will prove that these policies were successful in ensuring Women empowerment and political participation

From Crisis to Crisis Management; Causes and Impacts of Crises in the Public Sector

The economic growth and political settlement have to do with the issues and crises emerging in an environment. And kind of crises occurring in an organization can, of course, affect the stability and future of that organization. As the main aim of the public sector is used to be offering best services to the public, especially during crisis time, a perfect model of crisis management is required to maintain the current situation as it was. In this regard, many scholars have conducted studies different kinds of crises, impacts and causes of crises, and how to survive and progress in the crisis times. Accordingly, this conceptual paper explains and gives the main identifications of the term crisis. Further, is discusses the main reasons behind the emergence of crises as well as its impacts. Moreover, the paper discusses the Pearson and Mitroff (1993) crisis management dimensions as a suitable model to be in charge in such difficult situations. Finally, the paper ends with some conclusions and areas to be taken in concentration for future investigations.

Surviving and dying through the urban frontier: Everyday life, social brokerage and living with militias in Rio de Janeiro’s West Zone

Urban margins are typically depicted as residual, apolitical spaces, where delinquent activities take place. But these spaces, with their own social, economic and political goings-on, are capable of drawing established urban economic and political structures into question. This paper brings together urban frontiers, political settlements and brokerage literatures to analyse how residents muddle through the challenges of everyday life in the urban margins and interact with coercive systems of rule. Through ethnographic fieldwork, this paper focuses on two brokers from neighbouring communities in Rio de Janeiro’s West Zone; exploring how they mediate violent conditions, coercive militia rule and limited resources, and why and how they do so to different effects. By focusing on the spatial and historical dimensions of brokerage, this paper argues that power in Rio de Janeiro’s margins derives not only from coercive control and domination, but also from agency, legitimacy and social energy. By doing so, this paper unearths potential for more radical possibilities for urban development.